Certification framework based on effective trapping for geologic carbon sequestration

We have developed a certification framework (CF) for certifying the safety and effectiveness of geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) sites. Safety and effectiveness are achieved if CO₂ and displaced brine have no significant impact on humans, other living things, resources, or the environment. In the CF, we relate effective trapping to CO₂ leakage risk which takes into account both the impact and probability of leakage. We achieve simplicity in the CF by using (1) wells and faults as the potential leakage pathways, (2) compartments to represent environmental resources that may be impacted by leakage, (3) CO₂ fluxes and concentrations in the compartments as proxies for impact to vulnerable entities, (4) broad ranges of storage formation properties to generate a catalog of simulated plume movements, and (5) probabilities of intersection of the CO₂ plume with the conduits and compartments. We demonstrate the approach on a hypothetical GCS site in a Texas Gulf Coast saline formation. Through its generality and flexibility, the CF can contribute to the assessment of risk of CO₂ and brine leakage as part of the certification process for licensing and permitting of GCS sites around the world regardless of the specific regulations in place in any given country.     

A one-dimensional model of vertical gas plume migration through a heterogeneous porous medium

This work is motivated by the growing interest in injecting carbon dioxide into deep geological formations as a means of avoiding its atmospheric emissions and consequent global warming. Ideally, the injected greenhouse gas stays in the injection zone for a geologic time, eventually dissolves in the formation brine and remains trapped by mineralization. However, one of the potential problems associated with the geologic method of sequestration is that naturally present or inadvertently created conduits in the cap rock may result in a gas leakage from primary storage. Even in supercritical state, the carbon dioxide viscosity and density are lower than those of the formation brine. Buoyancy tends to drive the leaked CO₂plume upward. Theoretical and experimental studies of buoyancy-driven supercritical CO₂ flow, including estimation of time scales associated with plume evolution and migration, are critical for developing technology, monitoring policy, and regulations for safe carbon dioxide geologic sequestration.In this study, we obtain simple estimates of vertical plume propagation velocity taking into account the density and viscosity contrast between CO₂ and brine. We describe buoyancy-driven countercurrent flow of two immiscible phases by a Buckley–Leverett type model. The model predicts that a plume of supercritical carbon dioxide in a homogeneous water-saturated porous medium does not migrate upward like a bubble in bulk water. Rather, it spreads upward until it reaches a seal or until it becomes immobile. A simple formula requiring no complex numerical calculations describes the velocity of plume propagation. This solution is a simplification of a more comprehensive theory of countercurrent plume migration [Silin, D., Patzek, T.W., Benson, S.M., 2007. A Model of Buoyancy-driven Two-phase Countercurrent Fluid Flow. Laboratory Report LBNL-62607. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA]. In a layered reservoir, the simplified solution predicts a slower plume front propagation relative to a homogeneous formation with the same harmonic mean permeability. In contrast, the model yields much higher plume propagation estimates in a high-permeability conduit like a vertical fracture.     

An updated assessment of the acute impacts of ocean carbon sequestration by direct injection

This paper evaluates the expected environmental impact of several promising schemes for ocean carbon sequestration by direct injection of CO₂, and serves as a major update to the assessment by Auerbach et al. (1997) and Caulfield et al. (1997) of water quality impacts and the induced mortality to zooplankton. Three discharge approaches are considered, each designed to maximize dilution over the water column: a point release of negatively buoyant CO₂ hydrate particles from a moving ship; a stationary point release of CO₂ hydrate particles forming a sinking plume; and a long, bottom-mounted diffuser discharging buoyant liquid CO₂ droplets. Two of these scenarios take advantage of the enhanced dilution offered by CO₂ hydrate particles, and are based on recent laboratory and field studies on the formation and behavior of such particles. Overall, results suggest that it is possible with present or near present technology to engineer discharge configurations that achieve sufficient dilution to largely avoid acute impacts. In particular, the moving ship hydrate discharge is identified as the most promising due to its operational flexibility. In addition to lethal effects, sub-lethal and ecosystem effects are discussed qualitatively, though not analyzed quantitatively. Our main conclusion is that ocean carbon sequestration by direct injection should not be dismissed as a climate change mitigation strategy on the basis of environmental impact alone. Rather, it can be considered as a viable option for further study, especially in regions where geologic sequestration proves impractical.     

Land-use changes and carbon sequestration through the twentieth century in a Mediterranean mountain ecosystem: Implications for land management

Ecosystems in the western Mediterranean basin have undergone intense changes in land use throughout the centuries, resulting in areas with severe alterations. Today, most these areas have become sensitive to human activity, prone to profound changes in land-use configuration and ecosystem services. A consensus exists amongst stakeholders that ecosystem services must be preserved but managerial strategies that help to preserve them while ensuring sustainability are often inadequate. To provide a basis for measuring implications of land-use change on carbon sequestration services, changes in land use and associated carbon sequestration potential throughout the 20th century in a rural area at the foothills of the Sierra Nevada range (SE Spain) were explored. We found that forest systems replaced dryland farming and pastures from the middle of the century onwards as a result of agricultural abandonment and afforestation programs. The area has always acted as a carbon sink with sequestration rates ranging from 28,961 t CO₂ year^?1 in 1921 to 60,635 t CO₂ year^?1 in 1995, mirroring changes in land use. Conversion from pastures to woodland, for example, accounted for an increase in carbon sequestration above 30,000 t CO₂ year^?1 by the end of the century. However, intensive deforestation would imply a decrease of approximately 66% of the bulk CO₂ fixed. In our study area, woodland conservation is essential to maintain the ecosystem services that underlie carbon sequestration. Our essay could inspire policymakers to better achieve goals of increasing carbon sequestration rates and sustainability within protected areas.     

CO2 capture for refineries,a practical approach

This paper evaluates the opportunities and associated costs for post-combustion capture at a world-scale complex refinery. It is concluded that it is technically feasible to apply post-combustion capture at such a refinery. The costs for capture and sequestration from a gasifier are calculated to be lowest at about 30 Euro per ton; this process currently already produces a concentrated CO₂ stream. Next, the CO₂ source most suited for capture appears to be a combined stack, but there are a number of other sources that may be targeted at comparable costs. In total these sources may form about 40% of the overall refinery emissions. Our evaluations show the costs of capture from such sources based on available amine technology will be in the range of 90–120 Euro per ton, which is about 3–4 times higher than the current carbon trading values. The capture of CO₂ from a large amount of smaller CO₂ sources will bring along even much higher costs. A high-level study of the CO₂ emissions profile of a number of Shell refineries shows that, typically, up to 50% of the emitted CO₂ may be captured at similar costs. About 10–20% of concentrated CO₂ associated with hydrogen manufacturing may be captured at lower costs. The remainder of emitted dilute CO₂ will bring along significantly higher costs. Based on this study, it is concluded for the justification of the implementation of post-combustion capture at refineries, either a significant increase in carbon trading values, mandatory regulations, or a major technological break-through is required.     

A natural analogue for CO2 mineral sequestration in Miocene basalt in the Kuanhsi-Chutung area, Northwestern Taiwan

In general, CO₂ sequestration by carbonation is estimated by laboratory experimentation and geochemical simulation. In this study, however, estimation is based on a natural analogue study of the Miocene basalt in the Kuanhsi-Chutung area, Northwestern Taiwan. This region has great potential in terms of geological and geochemical environments for CO₂ sequestration. Outcropping Miocene basalt in the study area shows extensive serpentinization and carbonation. The carbon stable isotopes of carbonates lie on the depleted side of the Lohmann meteoric calcite line, which demonstrates that the carbonates most probably precipitate directly from meteoric fluid, and water–rock interaction is less involved in the carbonation process. Oxygen stable isotope examinations also show much depleted ratios, representative of product formation under low temperatures (∼50–90 °C). This translates to a depth of 1–2 km, which is a practical depth for a CO₂ sequestration reservoir. According to petrographic observation and electron microprobe analysis, the diopside grains in the basalt are resistant to serpentinization and carbonation; therefore, the fluid causing alteration is likely enriched with calcium and there must be additional sources of calcium for carbon mineralization. These derived geochemical properties of the fluid support the late Miocene sandstone and enclosed basalts as having high potential for being a CO₂ sequestration reservoir. Moreover, the existing geochemical environments allow for mineralogical assemblages of ultramafic xenoliths, indicating that forsterite, orthopyroxene and feldspar minerals are readily replaced by carbonates. Based on the mineral transformation in xenoliths, the capacity of CO₂ mineral sequestration of the Miocene basalt is semi-quantitatively estimated at 94.15 kg CO₂ chemically trapped per 1 m³ basalt. With this value, total CO₂ sequestration capacity can be evaluated by a geophysical survey of the amount of viable Miocene basalt at the potential sites. Such a survey is required in the near future.     

Basin-scale hydrogeologic impacts of CO2 storage: Capacity and regulatory implications

Industrial-scale injection of CO₂ into saline formations in sedimentary basins will cause large-scale fluid pressurization and migration of native brines, which may affect valuable groundwater resources overlying the deep sequestration aquifers. In this paper, we discuss how such basin-scale hydrogeologic impacts (1) may reduce current storage capacity estimates, and (2) can affect regulation of CO₂ storage projects. Our assessment arises from a hypothetical future carbon sequestration scenario in the Illinois Basin, which involves twenty individual CO₂ storage projects (sites) in a core injection area most suitable for long-term storage. Each project is assumed to inject five million tonnes of CO₂ per year for 50 years. A regional-scale three-dimensional simulation model was developed for the Illinois Basin that captures both the local-scale CO₂–brine flow processes and the large-scale groundwater flow patterns in response to CO₂ storage. The far-field pressure buildup predicted for this selected sequestration scenario support recent studies in that environmental concerns related to near- and far-field pressure buildup may be a limiting factor on CO₂ storage capacity. In other words, estimates of storage capacity, if solely based on the effective pore volume available for safe trapping of CO₂, may have to be revised based on assessments of pressure perturbations and their potential impacts on caprock integrity and groundwater resources. Our results suggest that (1) the area that needs to be characterized in a permitting process may comprise a very large region within the basin if reservoir pressurization is considered, and (2) permits cannot be granted on a single-site basis alone because the near- and far-field hydrogeologic response may be affected by interference between individual storage sites. We also discuss some of the challenges in making reliable predictions of large-scale hydrogeologic impacts related to CO₂ sequestration projects.     

Electric Swing Adsorption for CO2 removal from flue gases

One of the most important sources of CO₂ emissions are the fossil-fuel fired plants for production of electricity. Removal of CO₂ from flue gas streams for further sequestration has been proposed by the International Panel on Climate Change experts as one of the most reliable solutions to mitigate anthropogenic greenhouse emissions. When natural gas is employed as fuel, the molar fraction of CO₂ in the flue gas is lower than 5% causing serious problems for capture. The purpose of this work is to present experimental validation of an Electric Swing Adsorption (ESA) technology that may be employed for carbon capture for low molar fractions of CO₂ in the flue gas streams. To improve energy utilization, an activated carbon honeycomb monolith with low electrical resistivity was employed as selective adsorbent. A mathematical model for this honeycomb is proposed as well as different ESA cycles for CO₂ capture.     

Predicting δCDIC dynamics in CCS: A scheme based on a review of inorganic carbon chemistry under elevated pressures and temperatures

Stable carbon isotopes are important tools to assess potential storage sites for CO₂, as they allow the quantification of ionic trapping via isotope mass balances. In deep geological formations high p/T conditions need to be considered, because CO₂ dissolution, equilibrium constants and isotope fractionation of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) depend on temperature, pressure and solute composition. After reviewing different approaches to account for these dependencies, an expanded scheme is presented for speciation and carbon isotope fractionation of DIC and dissolution of CaCO₃ for pCO₂ up to 100 bar, pH down to 3 and temperatures of up to 200 °C. The scheme evaluates the influence of respective parameters on isotope ratios during CO₂ sequestration. The pCO₂ and pH are the dominant controlling factors in the DIC/δ¹³C/pH system. The fugacity of CO₂ has major impact on DIC concentrations at temperatures below 100 °C at high pCO₂. Temperature dependency of activities and equilibrium dominates at temperatures above 100 °C. Isotope ratios of DIC are expected to be about 1–2‰ more depleted in ¹³C compared to the free CO₂ at pCO₂ values above 10 bar. This depletion is controlled by carbon isotope fractionation between CO₂ and H₂CO₃* which is the dominant species of DIC at the resulting pH below 5.     

Application of crosswell seismic tomography using difference analysis with data normalization to monitor CO2 flooding in an aquifer

A pilot-scale experiment for carbon dioxide (CO₂) sequestration was undertaken at the Nagaoka test field in Japan. Time-lapse crosswell seismic tomography was conducted to detect and monitor the movement of CO₂ injected into an aquifer. We applied difference analysis with data normalization (DADN) to the time-lapse data to eliminate false images that were apparent in a conventionally processed difference section. Conventional difference analysis calculates travel-time delays after inversion, whereas the DADN method calculates them from raw travel-time records before inversion. Thus, fewer errors are generated with the DADN method compared to a conventional inversion analysis. We applied the DADN method to time-lapse tomography data recorded before and after the injection of CO₂ and computed the velocity variation in a subsurface section, which clearly showed the distribution of CO₂ flooding within a high permeability zone in the aquifer and showed no CO₂ leakage into the caprock. Our results also show the maximum velocity decrease as a result of CO₂ injection was about 9%, which is close to the results obtained in laboratory experiments. Finally, numerical simulations were inverted to test the effectiveness of the conventional and DADN methods in dealing with noise. These tests showed that the DADN method effectively reduces unique coherent noise for particular receiver and source combinations. We concluded that the DADN method provides useful data for monitoring the flow of CO₂ sequestered in underground aquifers.     

Numerical simulations on the influence of matrix diffusion to carbon sequestration in double porosity fissured aquifers

The double porosity model for fissured rocks, such as limestones and dolomites, has some features that may be relevant for carbon sequestration. Numerical simulations were conducted to study the influence of matrix diffusion on the trapping mechanisms relevant for the long-term fate of CO₂ injected in fissured rocks. The simulations show that, due to molecular diffusion of CO₂ into the rock matrix, dissolution trapping and hydrodynamic trapping are more effective in double porosity aquifers than in an equivalent porous media. Mineral trapping, although assessed indirectly, is also probably more relevant in double porosity aquifers due to the larger contact surface and longer contact time between dissolved CO₂ and rock minerals. However, stratigraphic/structural trapping is less efficient in double porosity media, because at short times CO₂ is stored only in the fissures, requiring large aquifer volumes and increasing the risk associated to the occurrence of imperfections in the cap-rock through which leakage can occur. This increased risk is also a reality when considering storage in aquifers with a regional flow gradient, since the CO₂ free-phase will move faster due to the higher flow velocities in fissured media and discharge zones may be reached sooner.     

Coda-wave interferometry analysis of time-lapse VSP data for monitoring geological carbon sequestration

Injection and movement/saturation of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in a geological formation will cause changes in seismic velocities. We investigate the capability of coda-wave interferometry technique for estimating CO₂-induced seismic velocity changes using time-lapse synthetic vertical seismic profiling (VSP) data and the field VSP datasets acquired for monitoring injected CO₂ in a brine aquifer in Texas, USA. Synthetic VSP data are calculated using a finite-difference elastic-wave equation scheme and a layered model based on the elastic Marmousi model. A possible leakage scenario is simulated by introducing seismic velocity changes in a layer above the CO₂ injection layer. We find that the leakage can be detected by the detection of a difference in seismograms recorded after the injection compared to those recorded before the injection at an earlier time in the seismogram than would be expected if there was no leakage. The absolute values of estimated mean velocity changes, from both synthetic and field VSP data, increase significantly for receiver positions approaching the top of a CO₂ reservoir. Our results from field data suggest that the velocity changes caused by CO₂ injection could be more than 10% and are consistent with results from a crosswell tomogram study. This study demonstrates that time-lapse VSP with coda-wave interferometry analysis can reliably and effectively monitor geological carbon sequestration.     

The impact of electric passenger transport technology under an economy-wide climate policy in the United States: Carbon dioxide emissions,coal use,and carbon dioxide capture and storage

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have the potential to be an economic means of reducing direct (or tailpipe) carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the transportation sector. However, without a climate policy that places a limit on CO₂ emissions from the electric generation sector, the net impact of widespread deployment of PHEVs on overall U.S. CO₂ emissions is not as clear. A comprehensive analysis must consider jointly the transportation and electricity sectors, along with feedbacks to the rest of the energy system. In this paper, we use the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's MiniCAM model to perform an integrated economic analysis of the penetration of PHEVs and the resulting impact on total U.S. CO₂ emissions. In MiniCAM, the deployment of PHEVs (or any technology) is determined based on its relative economics compared to all other methods of providing fuels and energy carriers to serve passenger transportation demands. Under the assumptions used in this analysis where PHEVs obtain 50–60% of the market for passenger automobiles and light-duty trucks, the ability to deploy PHEVs under the two climate policies modelled here results in over 400 million tons (MT) CO₂ per year of additional cost-effective emissions reductions from the U.S. economy by 2050. In addition to investments in nuclear and renewables, one of the key technology options for mitigating emissions in the electric sector is CO₂ capture and storage (CCS). The additional demand for geologic CO₂ storage created by the introduction of the PHEVs is relatively modest: approximately equal to the cumulative geologic CO₂ storage demanded by two to three large 1000 megawatt (MW) coal-fired power plants using CCS over a 50-year period. The introduction of PHEVs into the U.S. transportation sector, coupled with climate policies such as those examined here, could also reduce U.S. demand for oil by 20–30% by 2050 compared to today's levels.     

Limitations for brine acidification due to SO2 co-injection in geologic carbon sequestration

Co-injection of sulfur dioxide during geologic carbon sequestration can cause enhanced brine acidification. The magnitude and timescale of this acidification will depend, in part, on the reactions that control acid production and on the extent and rate of SO₂ dissolution from the injected CO₂ phase. Here, brine pH changes were predicted for three possible SO₂ reactions: hydrolysis, oxidation, or disproportionation. Also, three different model scenarios were considered, including models that account for diffusion-limited release of SO₂ from the CO₂ phase. In order to predict the most extreme acidification potential, mineral buffering reactions were not modeled. Predictions were compared to the case of CO₂ alone which would cause a brine pH of 4.6 under typical pressure, temperature, and alkalinity conditions in an injection formation. In the unrealistic model scenario of SO₂ phase equilibrium between the CO₂ and brine phases, co-injection of 1% SO₂ is predicted to lead to a pH close to 1 with SO₂ oxidation or disproportionation, and close to 2 with SO₂ hydrolysis. For a scenario in which SO₂ dissolution is diffusion-limited and SO₂ is uniformly distributed in a slowly advecting brine phase, SO₂ oxidation would lead to pH values near 2.5 but not until almost 400 years after injection. In this scenario, SO₂ hydrolysis would lead to pH values only slightly less than those due to CO₂ alone. When SO₂ transport is limited by diffusion in both phases, enhanced brine acidification occurs in a zone extending only 5 m proximal to the CO₂ plume, and the effect is even less if the only possible reaction is SO₂ hydrolysis. In conclusion, the extent to which co-injected SO₂ can impact brine acidity is limited by diffusion-limited dissolution from the CO₂ phase, and may also be limited by the availability of oxidants to produce sulfuric acid.     

Coastal spreading of olivine to control atmospheric CO2 concentrations: A critical analysis of viability

Qualitative proposals to control atmospheric CO₂ concentrations by spreading crushed olivine rock along the Earth's coastlines, thereby accelerating weathering reactions, are presently attracting considerable attention. This paper provides a critical evaluation of the concept, demonstrating quantitatively whether or not it can contribute significantly to CO₂ sequestration. The feasibility of the concept depends on the rate of olivine dissolution, the sequestration capacity of the dominant reaction, and its CO₂ footprint. Kinetics calculations show that offsetting 30% of worldwide 1990 CO₂ emissions by beach weathering means distributing of 5.0 Gt of olivine per year. For mean seawater temperatures of 15–25 °C, olivine sand (300 μm grain size) takes 700–2100 years to reach the necessary steady state sequestration rate and is therefore of little practical value. To obtain useful, steady state CO₂ uptake rates within 15–20 years requires grain sizes <10 μm. However, the preparation and movement of the required material poses major economic, infrastructural and public health questions. We conclude that coastal spreading of olivine is not a viable method of CO₂ sequestration on the scale needed. The method certainly cannot replace CCS technologies as a means of controlling atmospheric CO₂ concentrations.     

Mineral sequestration of carbon dioxide in basalt: A pre-injection overview of the CarbFix project

In this paper we describe the thermodynamic and kinetic basis for mineral storage of carbon dioxide in basaltic rock, and how this storage can be optimized. Mineral storage is facilitated by the dissolution of CO₂ into the aqueous phase. The amount of water required for this dissolution decreases with decreased temperature, decreased salinity, and increased pressure. Experimental and field evidence suggest that the factor limiting the rate of mineral fixation of carbon in silicate rocks is the release rate of divalent cations from silicate minerals and glasses. Ultramafic rocks and basalts, in glassy state, are the most promising rock types for the mineral sequestration of CO₂ because of their relatively fast dissolution rate, high concentration of divalent cations, and abundance at the Earth's surface. Admixture of flue gases, such as SO₂ and HF, will enhance the dissolution rates of silicate minerals and glasses. Elevated temperature increases dissolution rates but porosity of reactive rock formations decreases rapidly with increasing temperature. Reduced conditions enhance mineral carbonation as reduced iron can precipitate in carbonate minerals. Elevated CO₂ partial pressure increases the relative amount of carbonate minerals over other secondary minerals formed. The feasibility to fix CO₂ by carbonation in basaltic rocks will be tested in the CarbFix project by: (1) injection of CO₂ charged waters into basaltic rocks in SW Iceland, (2) laboratory experiments, (3) studies of natural analogues, and (4) geochemical modelling.     

Design considerations for financing a national trust to advance the deployment of geologic CO2 storage and motivate best practices

This paper explores how the widely held public policy view of the evolution of the risk profile associated with geologic carbon dioxide (CO₂) storage profoundly influences the public policy dialogue about how to best address the long-term risk profile for geologic storage. Evidence emerging from research and pilot scale field demonstrations of CO₂ storage demonstrates that, with proper site characterization and sound operating practices, retention of stored CO₂ will increase with time thus invalidating the premise of an ever growing risk. The authors focus on key issues of fit, interplay, and scalability associated with the ability of a trust fund funded by a hypothetical $1 per tonCO₂ tipping fee for each ton of CO₂ stored in the United States under WRE450 and WRE550 climate policies to manage such risks in an economically efficient and environmentally effective manner. The authors conclude there is no intrinsic value – in terms of risk management or risk reduction – in creating a trust fund predicated solely on collecting a universally applied tipping fee that does not take into account site-specific risk profiles. If left to grow unchecked, a trust fund that is predicated on a constant stream of payments unrelated to each contributing site's risk profile could result in the accumulation of hundreds of billions to more than a trillion dollars contributing to significant opportunity cost of capital. Further, rather than mitigating the financial consequences of long-term CCS risks, this analysis suggests a blanket $1 per tonCO₂ tipping fee, if combined with a concomitant limitation of liability may increase the probability and frequency of long-term risk by eliminating financial incentives for sound operating behavior and site selection criteria—contribute to moral hazard. At a minimum, effective use of a trust fund requires: (1) strong oversight regarding site selection and fund management, and (2) a clear process by which the fund is periodically valued and funds collected are mapped to the risk profile of the pool of covered CCS sites. Without appropriate checks and balances, there is no a priori reason to believe that the amount of funds held in trust will map to the actual amount of funds needed to address long-term care expenses and delimited compensatory damages. For this reason, the authors conclude that financing a trust fund or other risk management instrument should be based on a site delimited estimate of potential future expected financial consequences rather than on the random adoption of a fixed funding stream, e.g., a blanket $1 per ton, because it “sounds” reasonable.     

Trade-Based Carbon Sequestration Accounting

This article describes and illustrates an accounting method to assess and compare early carbon sequestration investments and trades on the basis of the number of standardized CO₂ emission offset credits they will provide. The gold standard for such credits is assumed to be a relatively riskless credit based on a CO₂ emission reduction that provides offsets against CO₂ emissions on a one-for-one basis. The number of credits associated with carbon sequestration needs to account for time, risk, durability, permanence, additionality, and other factors that future trade regulators will most certainly use to assign official credits to sequestration projects. The method that is presented here uses established principles of natural resource accounting and conventional rules of asset valuation to score projects. A review of 20 early voluntary United States based CO₂ offset trades that involve carbon sequestration reveals that the assumptions that buyers, sellers, brokers, and traders are using to characterize the economic potential of their investments and trades vary enormously. The article develops a universal carbon sequestration credit scoring equation and uses two of these trades to illustrate the sensitivity of trade outcomes to various assumptions about how future trade auditors are likely to score carbon sequestration projects in terms of their equivalency with CO₂ emission reductions. The article emphasizes the importance of using a standard credit scoring method that accounts for time and risk to assess and compare even unofficial prototype carbon sequestration trades. The scoring method illustrated in this article is a tool that can protect the integrity of carbon sequestration credit trading and can assist buyers and sellers in evaluating the real economic potential of prospective trades. Published online     

减污降碳协同增效的关键路径与政策研究

全面推动实现减污降碳协同增效是新发展阶段我国兑现碳达峰碳中和庄严承诺、深入打好污染防治攻坚战、建设美丽中国的必然要求。环境污染物与二氧化碳排放的高度同源性是实现减污降碳协同增效的理论基础。本文首先就目标指标、管控区域、控制对象、措施任务、政策工具五个方面的协同性系统讨论了减污降碳协同增效的基本内涵。其次，着眼于当前大气环境治理与碳减排在中国的重要性，本文在国家层面讨论了二者的中长期协同控制路线图，阐述了重点协同区域的识别方法和重点部门的协同治理思路，系统提出了大气环境治理与碳减排的协同路径。再次，本文还就“无废城市”建设和生态保护这两个领域与碳减排的协同治理思路展开分析讨论。最后，针对减污降碳协同治理对政策体系的需求，提出了统筹优化减污降碳协同目标、建立协同法规标准、建立减污降碳协同管理制度三个方面的建议。本研究将有助于厘清各方对减污降碳协同增效的认识，对各级政府后续推进减污降碳协同治理工作提供理论和科学基础。     

Linking carbon sequestration science with local sustainability: an integrated assessment approach

This paper introduces an integrated assessment (IA) approach for a Canada-China joint research project that linked forest carbon sequestration, forest resource management, and local sustainability enhancement. The purpose of the IA was to improve the measurement of carbon in different land uses and vegetation covers, as well as to direct decision makers to those land uses or options as an CO₂ emission reduction strategy while supporting rural sustainable development. In this connection, three questions are addressed in this paper:

1)

How will forestry carbon sequestration land use policies affect regional sustainability prospects in rural China?