Radical precursors and related species from traffic as observed and modeled at an urban highway junction

Nitrous acid (HONO) and formaldehyde (HCHO) are important precursors for radicals and are believed to favor ozone formation significantly. Traffic emission data for both compounds are scarce and mostly outdated. A better knowledge of today's HCHO and HONO emissions related to traffic is needed to refine air quality models. Here the authors report results from continuous ambient air measurements taken at a highway junction in Houston, Texas, from July 15 to October 15, 2009. The observational data were compared with emission estimates from currently available mobile emission models (MOBILE6; MOVES [MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator]). Observations indicated a molar carbon monoxide (CO) versus nitrogen oxides (NO_x) ratio of 6.01 ± 0.15 (r ² = 0.91), which is in agreement with other field studies. Both MOBILE6 and MOVES overestimate this emission ratio by 92% and 24%, respectively. For HCHO/CO, an overall slope of 3.14 ± 0.14 g HCHO/kg CO was observed. Whereas MOBILE6 largely underestimates this ratio by 77%, MOVES calculates somewhat higher HCHO/CO ratios (1.87) than MOBILE6, but is still significantly lower than the observed ratio. MOVES shows high HCHO/CO ratios during the early morning hours due to heavy-duty diesel off-network emissions. The differences of the modeled CO/NO_x and HCHO/CO ratios are largely due to higher NO_x and HCHO emissions in MOVES (30% and 57%, respectively, increased from MOBILE6 for 2009), as CO emissions were about the same in both models. The observed HONO/NO_x emission ratio is around 0.017 ± 0.0009 kg HONO/kg NO_x which is twice as high as in MOVES. The observed NO₂/NO_x emission ratio is around 0.16 ± 0.01 kg NO₂/kg NO_x, which is a bit more than 50% higher than in MOVES. MOVES overestimates the CO/CO₂ emission ratio by a factor of 3 compared with the observations, which is 0.0033 ± 0.0002 kg CO/kg CO₂. This as well as CO/NO_x overestimation is coming from light-duty gasoline vehicles.

Implications: Nitrous acid (HONO) and formaldehyde (HCHO) are important precursors for radicals that ultimately contribute to ozone formation. There still exist uncertainties in emission sources of HONO and HCHO and thus regional air quality modeling still tend to underestimate concentrations of free radicals in the atmosphere. This paper demonstrates that the latest U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) traffic emission model MOVES still shows significant deviations from observed emission ratios, in particular underestimation of HCHO/CO and HONO/NO_x ratios. Improving the performance of MOVES may improve regional air quality modeling.     

Gaseous Emissions from Vehicles in a Traffic Tunnel in Vancouver,British Columbia

ABSTRACT

In August 1995, measurements of CO, NO_x, speciated nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC), and CO₂ were made in Vancouver's Cassiar Connector, a 730-m-long level-grade highway traffic tunnel. Two characteristics of the Vancouver setting are the presence of many propane vehicles and a mandatory inspection and maintenance (I/M) program. Although the driving conditions and vehicle fleets are otherwise outwardly similar to those of recent Tuscarora-tunnel studies, CO/NO ratios at the Cassiar Connector are significantly lower than those measured at Tuscarora. The Cassiar measurements are consistent with the MOBILE5A mobile emissions model predictions. The Canadian version of MOBILE5A—known as MOBILE5C—gives nearly identical results, indicating that differences in Canadian and U.S. emission standards cannot explain differences between Cassiar and U.S. tunnels. Considering the modeling results as well as measured ethene/acetylene ratios indicative of noncatalyst vehicles, it appears that vehicle deterioration remains the major issue in in-use vehicle emissions—even in Vancouver, where there is a mandatory loaded-mode I/M program.     

Evaporative traffic hydrocarbon emissions,traffic CO and speciated HC traffic emissions from the city of Athens

Quasi-continuous measurements of NO_x, CO and C₅–C₁₂ hydrocarbons made during the MEDCAPHOT-TRACE experiment in a street canyon with heavy traffic load were used to estimate the CO/NO_x and 36 individual NMHC/NO_x traffic emission ratios in the Athens basin. A traffic emission inventory has been compiled for Athens and aspects of this inventory were tested against measurements. The results indicate that although the main features of the 9:00 to 15:00 variations of the NMHC/NO_x and CO/NO_x inventory emission ratios are in agreement with observations, during the rest of the day the fine structure of the variations of these ratios cannot be accurately predicted by the inventory. Comparison of pollutant emission ratios derived from ambient measurements with emission ratios predicted by existing inventories for Athens reveals serious discrepancies. Further, the experimental results and theoretical considerations indicate that the speciation of evaporative emissions changes with increasing ambient temperature in favour of the most volatile HC species, thus changing the speciation of traffic emissions during the course of the day. This is an aspect that is not taken into account in present urban photochemical modelling inventories.     

Diurnal and Weekday Variations in the Source Contributions of Ozone Precursors in California’s South Coast Air Basin

Abstract

For at least 30 years, ozone (O₃) levels on weekends in parts of California’s South Coast (Los Angeles) Air Basin (SoCAB) have been as high as or higher than on weekdays, even though ambient levels of O₃ precursors are lower on weekends than on weekdays. A field study was conducted in the Los Angeles area during fall 2000 to test whether proposed relationships between emission sources and ambient nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) levels can account for observed diurnal and day-of-week variations in the concentration and proportions of precursor pollutants that may affect the efficiency and rate of O₃ formation. The contributions to ambient NMHC by motor vehicle exhaust and evaporative emissions, estimated using chemical mass balance (CMB) receptor modeling, ranged from 65 to 85% with minimal day-of-week variation. Ratios of ambient NO_x associated with black carbon (BC) to NO_x associated with carbon monoxide (CO) were approximately 1.25 ± 0.22 during weekdays and 0.76 ± 0.07 and 0.52 ± 0.07 on Saturday and Sunday, respectively. These results demonstrate that lower NO_x emissions from diesel exhaust can be a major factor causing lower NO_x mixing ratios and higher NMHC/NO_x ratios on weekends. Nonmobile sources showed no significant day-of-week variations in their contributions to NMHC. Greater amounts of gasoline emissions are carried over on Friday and Saturday evenings but are, at most, a minor factor contributing to higher NMHC/NO_x ratios on weekend mornings.     

Emission Factors for High-Emitting Vehicles Based on On-Road Measurements of Individual Vehicle Exhaust with a Mobile Measurement Platform

ABSTRACT

Fuel-based emission factors for 143 light-duty gasoline vehicles (LDGVs) and 93 heavy-duty diesel trucks (HDDTs) were measured in Wilmington, CA using a zero-emission mobile measurement platform (MMP). The frequency distributions of emission factors of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), and particle mass with aerodynamic diameter below 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) varied widely, whereas the average of the individual vehicle emission factors were comparable to those reported in previous tunnel and remote sensing studies as well as the predictions by Emission Factors (EMFAC) 2007 mobile source emission model for Los Angeles County. Variation in emissions due to different driving modes (idle, low- and high-speed acceleration, low- and high-speed cruise) was found to be relatively small in comparison to intervehicle variability and did not appear to interfere with the identification of high emitters, defined as the vehicles whose emissions were more than 5 times the fleet-average values. Using this definition, approximately 5% of the LDGVs and HDDTs measured were high emitters. Among the 143 LDGVs, the average emission factors of NO_x, black carbon (BC), PM_2.5, and ultrafine particle (UFP) would be reduced by 34%, 39%, 44%, and 31%, respectively, by removing the highest 5% of emitting vehicles, whereas CO emission factor would be reduced by 50%. The emission distributions of the 93 HDDTs measured were even more skewed: approximately half of the NO_x and CO fleet-average emission factors and more than 60% of PM_2.5, UFP, and BC fleet-average emission factors would be reduced by eliminating the highest-emitting 5% HDDTs. Furthermore, high emissions of BC, PM_2.5, and NO_x tended to cluster among the same vehicles.

IMPLICATIONS This study presents the characterization of on-road vehicle emissions in Wilmington, CA, by sampling individual vehicle plumes. Approximately 5% of the vehicles were high emitters, whose emissions were more than 5 times the fleet-average values. These high emitters were responsible for 30% and more than 50% of the average emission factors of LDGVs and HDDVs, respectively. It is likely that as the overall fleet becomes cleaner due to more stringent regulations, a small fraction of the fleet may contribute a growing and disproportionate share of the overall emissions. Therefore, long-term changes in on-road emissions need to be monitored.     

Idle Emissions from Heavy-Duty Diesel and Natural Gas Vehicles at High Altitude

ABSTRACT

Idle emissions of total hydrocarbon (THC), CO, NO_x, and particulate matter (PM) were measured from 24 heavy-duty diesel-fueled (12 trucks and 12 buses) and 4 heavy-duty compressed natural gas (CNG)-fueled vehicles. The volatile organic fraction (VOF) of PM and aldehyde emissions were also measured for many of the diesel vehicles. Experiments were conducted at 1609 m above sea level using a full exhaust flow dilution tunnel method identical to that used for heavy-duty engine Federal Test Procedure (FTP) testing. Diesel trucks averaged 0.170 g/min THC, 1.183 g/min CO, 1.416 g/min NO_x, and 0.030 g/min PM. Diesel buses averaged 0.137 g/min THC, 1.326 g/min CO, 2.015 g/min NO_x, and 0.048 g/min PM.

Results are compared to idle emission factors from the MOBILE5 and PART5 inventory models. The models significantly (45-75%) overestimate emissions of THC and CO in comparison with results measured from the fleet of vehicles examined in this study. Measured NO_x emissions were significantly higher (30-100%) than model predictions. For the pre-1999 (pre-consent decree) truck engines examined in this study, idle NO_x emissions increased with Health and Environment; June 30, 1999 (available from the authors).     

Real-world vehicle emissions and VOCs profile in the Taipei tunnel located at Taiwan Taipei area

An in situ field experiment was conducted in a highway road tunnel in the Taipei City to determine the motor vehicle emission factors (EF) of different kinds of air pollution species. These are carbon monoxide (CO), oxides of nitrogen (NO_x), non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC) and VOCs species. About 56 species of VOCs were sampled by canister sampler and followed by the GC-MS analyzing. Furthermore, the tunnel-drafting rate was determined by SF₆ tracer method.The EF for the highway vehicles determined from this experiment are 3.64, 0.90, 0.44 and 0.24 gm km⁻¹ veh⁻¹ for CO, NO_x, NMHC and the totally measured VOCs, respectively. A comparison of the EFs from the road tunnel experiment to the estimates by the USEPA MOBILE5b (M5b) and the modified Taiwan EPA MOBILE-TAIWAN2.0 (MT2.0) provides a first-hand evaluation of the model characteristics. M5b and MT2.0 both tend to underpredict CO by 10% and 20%, respectively. While M5b overpredicts NO_x and NMHC by 40% and 20%, respectively; MT2.0 has fairly good predictions for these two species. From the GC-MS analysis of the canister samples, it was found that the most abundant species from the traffic-emitted VOCs in Taipei road tunnel are toluene, ethene and 1,2,4-trimethyl-benzene (1,2,4-TMB) by the weight basis. However, ethene, acetylene and toluene are the most abundant in VOCs based on volume. The VOCs’ weight composition in terms of the carbon bond classification is 28% by the paraffins, 33% by the olefins and 39% by the aromatics, respectively. In order to evaluate the ozone formation potential from the typical road emission in Taipei area, the maximum increment reactivity is calculated. It was found that about 1015 mg of O₃ is induced by per vehicle per kilometer traveled emission. Among them, ethene, 1,2,4-TMB and propene from the road vehicle's emission contribute most to the ozone-formation reactivity.     

Automated Chemical Mass Balance Receptor Modeling

Abstract

A nontrivial portion of heavy-duty vehicle emissions of NO_x and particulate matter (PM) occurs during idling. Regulators and the environmental community are interested in curtailing truck idling emissions, but current emissions models do not characterize them accurately, and little quantitative data exist to evaluate the relative effectiveness of various policies. The objectives of this study were to quantify the effect of accessory loading and engine speed on idling emissions from a properly functioning, modern, heavy-duty diesel truck and to compare these results with data from earlier model year vehicles. It was found that emissions during idling varied greatly as a function of engine model year, engine speed, and accessory load conditions. For the 1999 model year Class 8 truck tested, raising the engine speed from 600 to 1050 rpm and turning on the air conditioning resulted in a 2.5-fold increase in NO_x emissions in grams per hour, a 2-fold increase in CO₂ emissions, and a 5-fold increase in CO emissions while idling. On a grams per gallon fuel basis, NO_x emissions while idling were approximately twice as high as those at 55 mph. The CO₂ emissions at the two conditions were closer. The NO_x emissions from the 1999 truck while idling with air conditioning running were slightly more than those of two 1990 model year trucks under equivalent conditions, and the hydrocarbon (HC) and CO emissions were significantly lower. It was found that the NO_x emissions used in the California Air Resources Board’s (CARB) EMFAC2000 and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) MOBILE5b emissions inventory models were lower than those measured in all of the idling conditions tested on the 1999 truck.     

Multispecies remote sensing measurements of vehicle emissions on Sherman Way in Van Nuys,California

As part of the 2010 Van Nuys tunnel study, researchers from the University of Denver measured on-road fuel-specific light-duty vehicle emissions from nearly 13,000 vehicles on Sherman Way (0.4 miles west of the tunnel) in Van Nuys, California, with its multispecies Fuel Efficiency Automobile Test (FEAT) remote sensor a week ahead of the tunnel measurements. The remote sensing mean gram per kilogram carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbon (HC), and oxide of nitrogen (NO_x) measurements are 8.9% lower, 41% higher, and 24% higher than the tunnel measurements, respectively. The remote sensing CO/NO_x and HC/NO_x mass ratios are 28% lower and 20% higher than the comparable tunnel ratios. Comparisons with the historical tunnel measurements show large reductions in CO, HC, and NO_x over the past 23 yr, but little change in the HC/NO_x mass ratio since 1995. The fleet CO and HC emissions are increasingly dominated by a few gross emitters, with more than a third of the total emissions being contributed by less than 1% of the fleet. An example of this is a 1995 vehicle measured three times with an average HC emission of 419 g/kg fuel (two-stroke snowmobiles average 475 g/kg fuel), responsible for 4% of the total HC emissions. The 2008 economic downturn dramatically reduced the number of new vehicles entering the fleet, leading to an age increase (>1 model year) of the Sherman Way fleet that has increased the fleet's ammonia (NH₃) emissions. The mean NH₃ levels appear little changed from previous measurements collected in the Van Nuys tunnel in 1993. Comparisons between weekday and weekend data show few fleet differences, although the fraction of light-duty diesel vehicles decreased from the weekday (1.7%) to Saturday (1.2%) and Sunday (0.6%).

Implications: On-road remote sensing emission measurements of light-duty vehicles on Sherman Way in Van Nuys, California, show large historical emission reductions for CO and HC emissions despite an older fleet arising from the 2008 economic downturn. Fleet CO and HC emissions are increasingly dominated by a few gross emitters, with a single 1995 vehicle measured being responsible for 4% of the entire fleet's HC emissions. Finding and repairing and/or scrapping as little as 2% of the fleet would reduce on-road tailpipe emissions by as much as 50%. Ammonia emissions have locally increased with the increasing fleet age.     

Use of Subsampled Traffic Data to Estimate Roadway Emissions,Including Conversion to MOBILE6 Vehicle Classifications

Abstract

Air quality is degraded by many factors, among which the emissions from on‐road vehicles play a significant role. Timely and accurate estimate of such emissions becomes very important for policy‐making and effective control measures. However, lack of traffic data and outdated emission software make this task difficult. This research has demonstrated a new method that facilitates the vehicular emission inventories at the local level by using shorter-time Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) traffic data along with the latest U.S. Environment Protection Agency (EPA) emission modeling software, MOBILE6. The conversion methodology was developed for converting readily available HPMS traffic volume data into EPA MOBILE-based traffic classifications, and a corresponding software program was written for automating the process. EPA MOBILE6 model was used to obtain emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO_x), volatile organic compound (VOC), and cabon monoxide (CO) emitted by the parent traffic and subsampled traffic data, and these emissions were additionally compared. The case study has shown that the difference of the magnitude between the emission estimates produced by certain subsampled and parent traffic data are minor, indicating that subsampled HPMS data can be used for reporting parent traffic emissions. It was also observed that traffic emissions follow a Weibull distribution, and NO_x emissions were more sensitive to the traffic data composition than VOC and CO. Lastly, use of average emission values of 20 or 30 consecutive minutes appears to be valid for representing hourly emissions.     

CRC-APRAC Vehicle Emissions Modeling Workshop

A conference was held on October 30-31,1990 to examine discrepancies between the output of vehicle emission factor models (MOBILE and EMFAC), field and laboratory measurements of vehicle emissions, and observed ratios of pollutants in urban atmospheres dominated by vehicle emissions. There was a general consensus that significant discrepancies exist and that these discrepancies must be resolved. A number of research recommendations were made as to how models and model inputs could be improved, and what additional laboratory and field work should be conducted.     

Effects of improved spatial and temporal modeling of on-road vehicle emissions

Numerous emission and air quality modeling studies have suggested the need to accurately characterize the spatial and temporal variations in on-road vehicle emissions. The purpose of this study was to quantify the impact that using detailed traffic activity data has on emission estimates used to model air quality impacts. The on-road vehicle emissions are estimated by multiplying the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by the fleet-average emission factors determined by road link and hour of day. Changes in the fraction of VMT from heavy-duty diesel vehicles (HDDVs) can have a significant impact on estimated fleet-average emissions because the emission factors for HDDV nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) are much higher than those for light-duty gas vehicles (LDGVs). Through detailed road link-level on-road vehicle emission modeling, this work investigated two scenarios for better characterizing mobile source emissions: (1) improved spatial and temporal variation of vehicle type fractions, and (2) use of Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES2010) instead of MOBILE6 exhaust emission factors. Emissions were estimated for the Detroit and Atlanta metropolitan areas for summer and winter episodes. The VMT mix scenario demonstrated the importance of better characterizing HDDV activity by time of day, day of week, and road type. More HDDV activity occurs on restricted access road types on weekdays and at nonpeak times, compared to light-duty vehicles, resulting in 5-15% higher NOx and PM emission rates during the weekdays and 15-40% lower rates on weekend days. Use of MOVES2010 exhaust emission factors resulted in increases of more than 50% in NOx and PM for both HDDVs and LDGVs, relative to MOBILE6. Because LDGV PM emissions have been shown to increase with lower temperatures, the most dramatic increase from MOBILE6 to MOVES2010 emission rates occurred for PM2.5 from LDGVs that increased 500% during colder wintertime conditions found in Detroit, the northernmost city modeled.     

Nonparametric factorial analysis of daily weigh-in-motion traffic: implications for the ozone “weekend effect” in Southern California

The Ozone Weekend Effect (OWE) has become increasingly more frequent and widespread in southern California since the mid-1970s. Although a number of hypotheses have been suggested to explain the effect, there remains uncertainty associated with the root factors contributing to elevated weekend ozone concentrations. Targeting the time window of the 1997 Southern California Ozone Study (SCOS97), this paper examines traffic activity data for 14 vehicle classes at 27 weigh-in-motion (WIM) stations in southern California. Nonparametric factorial analyses of light-duty vehicle (LDV) and heavy-duty truck (HDT) traffic volumes indicate significant differences in daily volumes by day of week and between the weekly patterns of daily LDV and HDT volumes. Across WIM stations, the daily LDV volume was highest on Friday and decreased by 10% on weekends compared to that on midweek days. In contrast, daily HDT volumes showed dramatic weekend drops of 53% on Saturday and 64% on Sunday. As a result, LDV to HDT ratios increased by 145% on weekends. Nonparametric tests also suggest that weekly traffic patterns varied significantly between WIM stations located close to (central) and far from (peripheral) the Los Angeles Metro area. Weekend increases in LDV/HDT ratios were more pronounced at central WIM sites due to greater weekend declines of HDT relative to LDV traffic. The implications of these weekly traffic patterns for the OWE in southern California were investigated by estimating daily WIM traffic on-road running exhaust emissions of total organic gas (TOG) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) using EMFAC2002 emission factors. The results support the California Air Resource Board's (CARB's) NO_x reduction hypothesis that greater weekend NO_x reductions relative to volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions, in combinations with the VOC-limited ozone system, contribute to the OWE observed in the region. The results from this study can be used to develop weekend on-road mobile emission inventories for the purpose of air quality modeling.     

Vehicle emissions of radical precursors and related species observed in the 2009 SHARP campaign

The 2009 Study of Houston Atmospheric Radical Precursors (SHARP) field campaign had several components that yielded information on the primary vehicular emissions of formaldehyde (HCHO) and nitrous acid (HONO), in addition to many other species. Analysis of HONO measurements at the Moody Tower site in Houston, TX, yielded emission ratios of HONO to the vehicle exhaust tracer species NO_x and CO of 14 pptv/ppbv and 2.3 pptv/ppbv, somewhat smaller than recently published results from the Galleria site, although evidence is presented that the Moody Tower values should be upper limits to the true ratios of directly emitted HONO, and are consistent with ratios used in current standard emissions models. Several other Moody Tower emission ratios are presented, in particular a value for HCHO/CO of 2.4 pptv/ppbv. Considering only estimates of random errors, this would be significantly lower than a previous value, though the small sample size and possible systematic differences should be taken into account. Emission factors for CO, NO_x, and HCHO, as well as various volatile organic compounds (VOCs), were derived from mobile laboratory measurements both in the Washburn Tunnel and in on-road exhaust plume observations. These two sets of results and others reported in the literature all agree well, and are substantially larger than the CO, NO_x, and HCHO emission factors derived from the emission ratios reported from the Galleria site.

Implications: Emission factors for the species measured in the various components of the 2009 SHARP campaign in Houston, TX, including HCHO, HONO, CO, CO₂, nitrogen oxides, and VOCs, are needed to support regional air quality monitoring. Components of the SHARP campaign measured these species in several different ways, each with their own potential for systematic errors and differences in vehicle fleets sampled. Comparisons between data sets suggest that differences in sampling place and time may result in quite different emission factors, while also showing that different vehicle mixes can yield surprisingly similar emission factors.     

Cost-Effective Reduction of NOx Emissions from Electricity Generation

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the benefits and costs of policies to reduce NO_x emissions from electricity generation in the United States. Because emissions of NOx contribute to the high concentration of atmospheric ozone in the eastern states associated with health hazards, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has called on eastern states to formulate state implementation plans (SIPs) for reducing NO_x emissions. Our analysis considers three NO_x reduction scenarios: a summer seasonal cap in the eastern states covered by EPA's NO_x SIP Call, an annual cap in the same SIP Call region, and a national annual cap. All scenarios allow for emissions trading. Although EPA's current policy is to implement a seasonal cap in the SIP Call region, this analysis indicates that an annual cap in the SIP Call region would yield about $400 million more in net benefits (benefits less costs) than would a seasonal policy, based on particulate-related health effects only. An annual cap in the SIP Call region is also the policy that is most likely to achieve benefits in excess of costs. Consideration of omissions from this accounting, including the potential benefits from reductions in ozone concentrations, strengthens the finding that an annual program offers greater net benefits than does a seasonal program.     

Real-world fuel use and gaseous emission rates for flex fuel vehicles operated on E85 versus gasoline

Flex fuel vehicles (FFVs) typically operate on gasoline or E85, an 85%/15% volume blend of ethanol and gasoline. Differences in FFV fuel use and tailpipe emission rates are quantified for E85 versus gasoline based on real-world measurements of five FFVs with a portable emissions measurement system (PEMS), supplemented chassis dynamometer data, and estimates from the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) model. Because of inter-vehicle variability, an individual FFV may have higher nitrogen oxide (NO_x) or carbon monoxide (CO) emission rates on E85 versus gasoline, even though average rates are lower. Based on PEMS data, the comparison of tailpipe emission rates for E85 versus gasoline is sensitive to vehicle-specific power (VSP). For example, although CO emission rates are lower for all VSP modes, they are proportionally lowest at higher VSP. Driving cycles with high power demand are more advantageous with respect to CO emissions, but less advantageous for NO_x. Chassis dynamometer data are available for 121 FFVs at 50,000 useful life miles. Based on the dynamometer data, the average difference in tailpipe emissions for E85 versus gasoline is ?23% for NO_x, ?30% for CO, and no significant difference for hydrocarbons (HC). To account for both the fuel cycle and tailpipe emissions from the vehicle, a life cycle inventory was conducted. Although tailpipe NO_x emissions are lower for E85 versus gasoline for FFVs and thus benefit areas where the vehicles operate, the life cycle NO_x emissions are higher because the NO_x emissions generated during fuel production are higher. The fuel production emissions take place typically in rural areas. Although there are not significant differences in the total HC emissions, there are differences in HC speciation. The net effect of lower tailpipe NO_x emissions and differences in HC speciation on ozone formation should be further evaluated.

Implications: Reported comparisons of flex fuel vehicle (FFV) tailpipe emission rates for E85 versus gasoline have been inconsistent. To date, this is the most comprehensive evaluation of available and new data. The large range of inter-vehicle variability illustrates why prior studies based on small sample sizes led to apparently contradictory findings. E85 leads to significant reductions in tailpipe nitrogen oxide (NO_x) and carbon monoxide (CO) emission rates compared with gasoline, indicating a potential benefit for ozone air quality management in NO_x-limited areas. The comparison of FFV tailpipe emissions between E85 and gasoline is sensitive to power demand and driving cycles.     

Trends in on-road vehicle emissions and ambient air quality in Atlanta,Georgia, USA,from the late 1990s through 2009

On-road vehicle emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) during 1995–2009 in the Atlanta Metropolitan Statistical Area were estimated using the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) model and data from the National Emissions Inventories and the State of Georgia. Statistically significant downward trends (computed using the nonparametric Theil-Sen method) in annual on-road CO, NO_x, and VOC emissions of 6.1%, 3.3%, and 6.0% per year, respectively, are noted during the 1995–2009 period despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled. The CO and NO_x emission trends are correlated with statistically significant downward trends in ambient air concentrations of CO and NO_x in Atlanta ranging from 8.0% to 11.8% per year and from 5.8% to 8.7% per year, respectively, during similar time periods. Weather-adjusted summertime ozone concentrations in Atlanta exhibited a statistically significant declining trend of 2.3% per year during 2001–2009. Although this trend coexists with the declining trends in on-road NO_x, VOC, and CO emissions, identifying the cause of the downward trend in ozone is complicated by reductions in multiple precursors from different source sectors.

Implications:Large reductions in on-road vehicle emissions of CO and NO_x in Atlanta from the late 1990s to 2009, despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled, contributed to a significant improvement in air quality through decreases in ambient air concentrations of CO and NO_x during this time period. Emissions reductions in motor vehicles and other source sectors resulted in these improvements and the observed declining trend in ozone concentrations over the past decade. Although these historical trends cannot be extrapolated to the future because pollutant concentration contributions due to on-road vehicle emissions will likely become an increasingly smaller fraction of the atmospheric total, they provide an indication of the benefits of past control measures.     

Spatial and temporal variations in PM10 and PM2.5 source contributions and comparison to emissions during the 1995 integrated monitoring study

The ambient PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 data collected during the fall and winter portions of the 1995 Integrated Monitoring Study (IMS95) were used to conduct Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) Modeling to determine source contribution estimates. Data from the core and saturation monitoring sites provided an extensive database for evaluating the spatial and temporal variations of contributing sources. Geological sources dominated fall samples, while secondary ammonium nitrate and carbonaceous sources were the largest contributors for winter samples. Secondary ammonium nitrate concentrations were uniform across all sites during both the fall and winter. Site-to-site variability was primarily due to differences in geological contributions in the fall, and carbonaceous source contributions in the winter. During the winter, diurnal profiles of particulate matter (PM) were driven by variations in carbonaceous sources at urban sites, and by variations in secondary ammonium nitrate at rural sites. Although records of day-specific PM activities were recorded during the study, no correlation was observed between 24-h CMB results and specific activities. The ambient data collected during IMS95 was also used to evaluate the adequacy of the emissions inventory. Comparison of ambient and emissions based ratios of NMHC/NO_x, PM/NO_x, CO/NO_x, and SO_x/NO_x suggested that emissions of NMHC and CO in some locations may be underestimated, while emissions for PM and SO_x may be overestimated. Comparison of fractional primary CMB source contribution estimates to corresponding fractional emissions estimates indicated that geological sources were overemphasized in the inventory, while carbonaceous sources were underrepresented.