The analysis of greenhouse gas emissions/reductions in waste sector in Vietnam

The global waste sector produces, on average, 2–5 % of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The amount of GHG emissions has grown steadily and is predicted to increase considerable in the forthcoming decades because of the increases in population and gross domestic product (GDP). However, the GHG mitigation opportunities for the sector are still fully not exploited, in particularly in developing countries. A series of initiatives were highly successful and showed that large reductions in emissions are possible. This study aims to propose a holistic quantification model, which can be used for estimation of waste generation and evaluation of the potential reduction of GHG emissions in waste sector for developing countries with a particular application to Vietnam. The two scenarios set for the study were business as usual (BaU) which waste management is assumed to follow past and current trends and CounterMeasure (CM) which alternative waste treatment and management are assessed. Total emissions in the BaU scenario are projected to increase from 29.47 MtCO₂eq in 2010 to 85.60 MtCO₂eq by 2030 and 176.32 MtCO₂eq by 2050. The highest emissions are due to methane (CH₄) released by disposal sites, accounting for about 60 % of the GHG emissions from waste in Vietnam in 2030. This emission is projected to increase significantly (67 % in 2050), unless more of the methane is captured and used for energy generation. The CM scenario gives emission reductions from 25.7 % (2020), 40.5 % (2030) to 56.6 % (2050) compared to the BaU scenario. The highest GHG reduction is achieved through recycling, followed by methane recovery to optimize the co-benefit for climate change mitigation.     

中国建筑领域CO2排放达峰路径研究

实施建筑领域CO₂排放控制是推动我国2030年前实现碳排放达峰的关键举措. 2020年我国建筑领域运行阶段CO₂排放量为21.7×108 t,约占全国能源活动碳排放量的20%,其中直接排放6.9×108 t,间接排放14.8×108 t. 随着城镇化发展水平和居民生活消费水平的不断提升,建筑领域CO₂排放仍呈刚性增长态势. 为明确建筑领域CO₂排放达峰路径,综合考虑建筑领域发展现状和用能情况,以建筑运行中供暖、炊事等活动所需一次能源(煤炭、石油和天然气)消耗直接排放以及热电联产供暖、空调、照明、电梯、电器等外购热力和电力间接排放为核算范围,在预测不同阶段建筑发展规模、建筑能源消费、用能结构的基础上,分析未来碳排放变化趋势和达峰时间,提出达峰路径和重要政策举措. 结果表明:①2010—2020年,我国建筑领域CO₂排放量从13.2×108 t增至21.7×108 t,其中直接排放已于2017年达峰,间接排放仍在持续增长. ②从建筑规模和节能降碳措施等角度分情景开展建筑领域碳排放达峰路径研究,预测建筑领域CO₂排放将在2029—2030年左右达峰,峰值排放量为28.1×108~29.2×108 t,达峰后有2~3年的平台期. ③低碳清洁取暖、可再生能源应用、建筑节能改造和合理控制建筑规模4项措施是建筑领域实现碳排放达峰的重要举措,4项措施的减排贡献率分别达到40.7%、27.1%、17.7%和14.5%. 研究显示,2030年前,发展建筑可再生能源、强化建筑节能、合力控制建筑规模是建筑领域降碳的核心举措,而推动低碳清洁取暖是实现我国建筑领域降碳最主要的控制途径.      

东莞市低碳路径下加速电气化对CO2和污染物协同减排影响

城市是能源消耗的中心，电气化可以整合城市能源结构，实现清洁能源高效利用，探究城市低碳路径下加速电气化的协同减排影响对实现城市减污降碳至关重要.基于长期能源替代规划模型(LEAP-DG),设置了基准情景、低碳情景和加速电气化情景等3类情景，评估电气化措施在不同电力结构下的减排潜力，量化重点部门的措施贡献，探讨广东省典型制造业城市东莞的协同减排效果.结果表明，电力结构优化促进了电气化措施的协同减排效果，低碳路径下加速电气化将进一步降低电力污染物排放强度，2050年，东莞市CO₂、 NO_x、 VOC和CO减排7.35×10⁶、 1.28×10⁴、 1.62×10⁴和8.13×10⁴ t, SO₂和PM_2.5消费侧减排量和生产侧增排量达到平衡.电气化渗透速率和电力结构优化协调发展是电气化措施实现减排效益的关键，工业和交通部门加速电气化将同时降低CO₂和大气污染物排放，交通部门得益于燃油车和电动车的高...     

中国石化化工行业二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究

石化化工行业是高耗能高排放行业之一,约占工业部门碳排放比例的10%,研究石化化工行业碳排放达峰路径不仅能推动工业部门尽早实现达峰,同时也为石化化工行业加快绿色低碳转型指明方向. 基于中国统计年鉴、行业协会、企业碳核查等多来源数据,在分析历史排放趋势的基础上,识别能源集中度高的重点行业和产品,采用情景分析法针对石油和天然气开采业、石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业、化学原料及化学制品制造业三大子行业中的炼油、乙烯、丙烯、对二甲苯和合成氨等重点产品,预测其基准情景和控排情景下的重点产品产量和碳排放强度,以及石化化工行业2021—2035年二氧化碳排放趋势. 石化化工行业在基准情景下排放量无法实现2030年前达峰,控排情景下将于2030年达峰,峰值为17.3×108 t. 通过能源结构调整、节能和低碳技术改造、低碳循环及高效利用等途径可以实现行业减排,与BAU(仅考虑石化产品产量变化,不考虑产品结构、单位产品能耗变化)情景相比,减排贡献最大的路径是化石能源利用清洁化改造,2030年相对BAU减排1.19×108 t,贡献率约44%;其次是加大节能和低碳技术改造力度和资源循环及高效利用,减排量分别为0.8×108和0.6×108 t,减排贡献率分别达到29%和22%.      

Technology-side carbon abatement cost curves for China’s power generation sector

China is among the largest emitters of carbon dioxide (CO₂), worldwide Thus, its emissions mitigation is of global concern. The power generation sector is responsible for nearly half of China’s total CO₂ emissions and plays a key role in emissions mitigation. This study is an integrated evaluation of abatement technologies, including both low-carbon power generation technologies and retrofitting options for coal power plants. We draw marginal abatement cost curves for these technologies using the conservation supply curve method. Using scenario analysis for the years 2015 to 2030, we discuss the potential performance of abatement technologies. Marginal costs for the analyzed abatement technologies range from RMB ? 357.41/ton CO₂ to RMB 927.95/ton CO₂. Furthermore, their cumulative mitigation potential relative to the baseline scenario could reach 35 billion tons of CO₂ in 2015–2030, with low-carbon power generation technologies and coal power abatement technologies contributing 55% and 45% of the total mitigation, respectively. Our case study of China demonstrates the power generation sector’s great potential to mitigate global emissions, and we suggest nuclear power, hydropower, and the comprehensive retrofitting of coal power as key technology options for the low-carbon transition of the energy system and long-term emissions mitigation strategies.

     

上海市能源CO_2排放及节能减排的减碳效果分析

以 2005 年为基准,采用 IPCC 清单指南推荐的方法测算了上海市能源活动产生的 CO2 排放清单。并采用情景分析方法,预测了高碳情景和低碳情景下上海市能源需求及相应的二氧化碳排放趋势,探讨了节能减排等低碳政策所产生的碳削减的潜力。研究表明,2005 年上海市能源活动所排放的 CO2 总量为 1.72 亿 t,其中,能源加工转换产生的 CO2 排放量为 7740 万 t,占排放总量的 44%;工业次之,占 30%;交通运输的排放比例为 16%。煤炭和石油的消费是导致 CO2 排放的主要原因,2005 年煤炭所带来的 CO2 排放量为1.10 亿 t,油品所产生的 CO2 排放量为 0.58 亿 t,分别占到能源活动 CO2 排放总量的 64.0%和 33.7%。 2005 年上海市人均 CO2 排放量为9.68 t/人,是世界平均水平的 2.4 倍,是中国平均水平的 3.8 倍。研究表明,在低碳政策下,上海能源需求将有所控制,到 2020 年全市能源需求总量为 1.6 亿 t 标煤, 比高碳情景节约 1.4 亿 t 标煤。节能减排政策还将使得全市能源活动 CO2 排放比高碳情景显著下降,到2020 年全市 CO2 排放量为 3.26 亿 t,比高碳情景减少 3.1 亿 t,低碳政策所产生的碳减排效益十分明显。     

基于函数极值条件下的中国碳达峰碳中和情景分析

基于函数极值条件提出了碳达峰出现时间和需要满足的理论条件,并对主要发达国家作了验证,同时对中国现状做了分析,最后采用了基准和强化两种情景分析了中国实现2030年碳达峰后进入2060年碳中和时期的二氧化碳排放量。研究结果显示：（1）根据IPAT恒等式将碳排放函数分解成人口、人均GDP和碳强度三个因素时,碳峰值出现时间为三个因素年增长率之和由正转负的正数值年度,发达国家的历史数据证实了这一条件。（2）中国三个因素年增长率之和自2003年起已经开始降低,最近几年一直在0.01~0.02徘徊,表明总体上朝着有利于碳达峰的方向发展,同时按照三个因素的预期发展目标计算得出中国2030年碳排放峰值的上限为112.2亿t,若2021—2035年保持相同的人均GDP年均复合增长率,碳强度年均复合增长率的绝对值需要比人均GDP年均复合增长率高0.14个百分点。（3）在能源消费总量逐渐回落的前提条件下,2060年基准情景下非化石能源占比约为65%,产生的二氧化碳量约为31.4亿t,强化情景下非化石能源占比约为70%,二氧化碳排放约为26.6亿t,而碳汇和CCUS等固碳技术还存在不确定性,碳中和任务依然艰巨。实现碳达峰碳中和最终需要控制能源消费,践行低碳消费行为。     

中国铝生命周期能耗与碳排放的情景分析及减排对策

铝工业是高能耗高排放工业,探索铝工业的节能减排路径有助于我国实现《巴黎协定》中的温室气体减排承诺.采用物质流分析和生命周期评价方法,基于存量水平、技术水平和能源结构设置了15种情景,研究了我国铝工业1990～2100年的能耗和碳排放量,探索不同路径下的节能减排潜力.我国铝在用存量将在2040～2050年达到峰值(4.6...     

电动重卡替代柴油重卡的全生命周期碳减排效益分析

为精准预测电动重卡替代柴油重卡的全生命周期碳减排效益,以单辆重卡为对象,通过预测2023~2050年的电力和柴油碳排放因子变化特性,耦合两类重卡寿命及生命周期行驶里程,分阶段构建了重卡动态碳排放模型,深入分析了“2050年净零排放（NZE）情景”、“承诺目标（APS）情景”和“既定政策（STEPS）情景”下两类重卡的碳排放足迹,并计算碳减排量和碳减排率.结果表明,电池生产和电池回收是分别导致电动重卡生产阶段和拆解回收阶段碳减排效益不佳的重要因素.电力碳排放因子（以CO₂计）每降低1 g·（kW·h）^-1,电动重卡全生命周期碳排放可减少1.74 t.3种情景下,两类重卡运行阶段碳排放均占全生命周期碳排放总量的90%以上.碳减排效益由高到低的情景依次为NZE、APS和STEPS,其对应的全生命周期碳减排量分别为1 054.68、1 021.78和1 007.97 t,碳减排率分别为54.38%、52.68%和51.97%.     

A global analysis of residential heating and cooling service demand and cost-effective energy consumption under different climate change scenarios up to 2050

Climate change and energy service demand exert influence on each other through temperature change and greenhouse gas emissions. We have consistently evaluated global residential thermal demand and energy consumption up to the year 2050 under different climate change scenarios. We first constructed energy service demand intensity (energy service demand per household) functions for each of three services (space heating, space cooling, and water heating). The space heating and cooling demand in 2050 in the world as a whole become 2.1–2.3 and 3.8–4.5 times higher than the figures for 2010, whose ranges are originated from different global warming scenarios. Cost-effective residential energy consumption to satisfy service demand until 2050 was analyzed keeping consistency among different socio-economic conditions, ambient temperature, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission pathways using a global energy assessment model. Building shell improvement and fuel fuel-type transition reduce global final energy consumption for residential thermal heating by 30% in 2050 for a 2 °C target scenario. This study demonstrates that climate change affects residential space heating and cooling demand by regions, and their desirable strategies for cost-effective energy consumption depend on the global perspectives on CO₂ emission reduction. Building shell improvement and energy efficiency improvement and fuel fuel-type transition of end-use technologies are considered to be robust measures for residential thermal demand under uncertain future CO₂ emission pathways.     

低碳交通电动汽车碳减排潜力及其影响因素分析

交通运输是城市能源消耗和碳排放的重点行业,为通过节能减排实现低碳城市发展目标,传统汽油车向新能源汽车的转型是一项重要的举措,其中电动汽车因其节能减排的优势将在这次转型中发挥重要作用.在全面总结现有电动汽车节能减排研究成果的基础上,分析了影响电动汽车的减排因素,并应用燃料生命周期的理论,结合北京市的电动汽车推广计划,以纯电动汽车为例,采用改进的燃料碳排放模型,并设置6种情景分析了电动汽车的碳排放及其减排潜力,包括发电能源结构、车用燃料类型(单位燃料的CO2排放系数)、汽车类型(百公里能耗)、城市交通状况(时速)、煤电发电技术、电池类型(重量、能效)等因素对电动汽车减排潜力的影响.结果表明,改进后的模型能更科学测算燃料消耗碳排放;纯电动汽车具有明显的制约性碳减排潜力,在分析的6种影响因素中其波动幅度为57%～81.2%,其中,发电能源结构和煤电技术供电路线对电动汽车燃料生命周期碳减排空间起决定性作用,其减排空间分别可达78.1%及81.2%.最后从改善能源结构、提高煤电技术、推广节能技术、加快动力蓄电池研发、推广纯电动汽车等方面提出了推广电动汽车降低交通能耗和碳排放的优化措施,以期为低碳交通新能源汽车转型政策的制定提供科学依据和方法支撑.     

CO2-emission reduction in China’s residential building sector and contribution to the national climate change mitigation targets in 2020

Between 1980 and 2007, in the Chinese building sector in urban and rural areas, coal was mainly substituted with electricity and natural gas. Growing income will further increase energy consumption and CO₂-emissions in the building sector. Using an econometric model, disaggregated energy demand and related CO₂-emissions in the residential sector as well for the whole economy are estimated and forecasted until 2050. In 2009, the Chinese government pledged itself to reduce CO₂-intensity by 40%?C45% in 2020 compared to 2005. Aim of this article is to assess to which extent the measures in the building sector in China can contribute to this target. Main results of the analysis are: (a) The primary energy source coal was mainly substituted by electricity generated with coal. Apart from convenience gains, the environmental advantages are questionable. (b) Between 2010 and 2050, energy demand in the building sector will grow by 2.0%?C4.1% per annum leading to CO₂-emissions at least almost tripling from about 560 mill. tons in 2010 to about 1,500 mill. tons in 2050. (c) The energy efficiency gains in the building sector and other sectors of the Chinese economy, however, are not enough to fulfill the national CO₂-intensity targets. The reduction of the CO₂-intensity of GDP would be 37.2% in the BAU-scenario, and 31.9% in the LOW-scenario. Only in the HIGH-scenario (46.3%), the economy is growing efficient enough relative to the induced CO₂-emissions. The remaining CO2-emission reductions could be gained by additional promotion of renewable energies (mainly solar and geo-thermal) in the building sector.     

Developing long-term strategies to reduce energy use and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions—analysis of three mitigation scenarios for iron and steel production in China

We perform a scenario analysis of three strategies for long-term energy savings and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission reductions in iron and steel production in China, using a linear optimization modeling framework industry sector energy efficiency modeling (ISEEM). The modeling includes annual projections for one base scenario representing business-as-usual (BAU) and three additional scenarios representing different strategies to reduce annual energy use and CO₂ emissions from 2010 to 2050. Specifically, the three scenarios for cost-optimization modeling include changing the production share (PS), predefining emission reduction (ER) target, and stipulating carbon emission pricing (CP), respectively. While the three strategies are projected to result in similar annual energy savings by approximately 15 % compared to that of the BAU scenario in year 2050, the carbon emission pricing strategy brings about the highest annual energy savings in the medium term (e.g., 2025). In addition, adopting carbon emission pricing strategy will result in the highest emission reduction from BAU with much higher costs, i.e., by 20 % in 2025 and 41 % in 2050, while adopting either PS or ER strategies will result in a moderate level of emission reduction from BAU, i.e., by approximately 4 % in 2025 and 14 % in 2050. The analysis of China’s national strategies to reduce energy use and emissions provides important implications for global mitigation strategies.     

农村居民生活碳达峰路径及对策

全国碳达峰目标已经明确,农村居民生活能源消费是碳排放增长的重要来源,亟待得到有效控制.为研究农村居民生活碳达峰路径,基于农村居民生活能源消费现状分析,采用碳排放系数法对2000—2018年农村居民生活的碳排放进行核算,基于情景分析法,从能源消费结构调整的角度,设定不同情景分析农村居民生活的碳达峰时间及峰值.结果表明:①2000—2018年,农村居民生活碳排放量、人均碳排放量均呈快速上升趋势,其中农村居民生活碳排放量占国家碳排放总量的3.0%~4.0%.②在2030年国家碳排放强度下降65%的目标下,农村居民生活同步碳达峰目标约为3.64×108 t;农村居民煤炭消费的碳排放已在2017年达峰,总量达峰则依托于能源结构调整情景实现目标.③基准情景下,2030年前无法实现碳达峰;政策情景下,将在2027—2028年达到峰值,峰值约为3.66×108 t;优化情景下,将在2024年达到峰值,峰值约为3.44×108 t.④基于能源结构调整的碳达峰路径主要表现为煤炭消费占比降至18.0%左右,天然气、电力、其他能源消费占比分别提至1.5%、35.0%、30.0%左右.研究显示,促进碳达峰的措施可重点从完善顶层设计、制定农村能源发展战略规划、推动分布式能源系统建设、加强节能减排技术保障、创新资金支持、普及绿色低碳生活方式等几个方面加强实施,从而推动农村的能源变革与节能减排.      

双碳约束下煤化工行业节煤降碳减污协同

在碳达峰碳中和背景下,煤化工行业应采取更为积极的二氧化碳减排措施.基于煤化工行业原料结构调整、燃料结构调整、节能技术改造、末端捕集技术和产业结构调整五大节煤降碳措施力度不同,采用下游部门需求法和项目法以及大气污染物减排模型,核算预测3种情景(基准、政策和强化)煤化工行业煤炭消耗和二氧化碳排放变化,以及大气污染物协同减排效应.结果表明,煤化工行业基准和政策情景下煤炭消费量预计在“十四五”后期达峰,峰值分别为9.6亿t和9.3亿t;强化情景下有望在“十四五”前期达峰,峰值约为9.1亿t.二氧化碳排放量在基准、政策和强化情景下分别于“十五五”末期、“十四五”末期和“十四五”前期达峰,达峰量分别为6.4亿、 5.7亿和5.5亿t.控制现代煤化工项目建设规模、挖掘原料替代的空间以及节能技术改造是减少煤化工行业煤耗和二氧化碳排放的重要措施手段.实施煤化工行业节煤降碳措施,政策情景下预计到2035年每年可协同减少SO₂、 NO_x、 PM和VOCs等大气污染物排放3.7万、 4.3万、 1.1万和2.8万t.     

Co-benefits of a carbon tax in Nepal

This paper analyzes the co-benefits of introducing a time variant carbon (C) tax scheme in Nepal, a hydropower resourceful country, by using a bottom up integrated energy system model based on the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) framework with time horizon of 2005–2050. It discusses the effects of C tax on energy mix, environmental emissions, energy supply security, energy efficiency, energy system cost, and employment benefit. The study shows that the C tax (that gradually increases from US13/tCO < sub > 2 < /sub > e in 2015 to US 13/tCO₂e in 2015 to US 200/tCO₂e by 2050) results in a reduction of the cumulative emission of greenhouse gases by 83.9 million tons CO₂e (12%) as compared to that in the base case. With the introduction of the C tax, there would be a need for additional hydropower capacity of 945 MW by 2050 as compared to the capacity in the base case. The emission of local pollutants consisting of sulphur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and non-methane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) in 2050 would be reduced by 12%, 7% and 1% respectively under the C tax scenario. Total amount of imported energy would decrease by 13%, which corresponds to a reduction in discounted net fuel import cost by 5% during the study period. Furthermore, the C tax would result in new employment generation of 151 thousand man-years associated with the additional hydropower capacity requirement.     

基于LEAP模型的兰州市道路交通温室气体与污染物协同减排情景模拟

基于LEAP模型,构建了2015～2040年兰州市道路交通发展“零措施”的基准（BAU）情景以及低碳（LC）和强化低碳（ELC）这2个节能减排情景,模拟评估各项政策和措施下能源消耗情况和温室气体与大气污染物协同减排效果.结果表明,LC情景能源消耗和CO₂排放将于2026年达峰,ELC情景能源消耗和CO₂排放将于2020年达峰;两种情景下,NO_x、 CO、 HC、 PM_2.5和PM₁₀等污染物排放量于2015～2017年间开始出现大幅下降,下降趋势于2023年前后逐渐减缓.结合措施可行性和减排成本,LC情景可作为兰州市道路交通碳达峰减排情景：到2040年能源消耗量、 CO₂、 NO_x、 CO、 HC、 PM_2.5和PM₁₀排放相对于BAU情景的削减率分别达到-24.17%、-26.57%、-55.38%、-65.91%、-72.87%、-76.66%和-77.18%.兰州市道路交通当前应以公共...     

钢铁行业生命周期碳排放核算及减排潜力评估

钢铁行业是中国碳密集度最高的工业行业之一,为分析钢铁行业生命周期碳排放及碳减排潜力,从生命周期角度构建碳排放核算模型,以2020年为例开展实证分析,通过优化废钢使用量、化石燃料燃烧量、电力碳足迹因子以及清洁运输比例4项变量,对钢铁行业生命周期碳减排潜力作预测评估,同时使用敏感性分析确定影响钢铁生命周期碳减排因素的关键程度.结果表明,2020年中国钢铁行业全生命周期二氧化碳(CO₂)排放总量约24.04亿t,其中原料获取和加工生产阶段是钢铁行业碳排放的关键环节,占钢铁行业生命周期CO₂排放总量的98%以上.从CO₂排放源类别分析,化石燃料节约和外购电力清洁化是钢铁行业降碳的重中之重.到2025年,通过推广低碳技术、优化电力结构、增加废钢炼钢量、提高清洁方式运输比例,分别可使钢铁行业实现20%、 6%、 5%和1%的碳减排潜力.化石燃料燃烧量对钢铁行业生命周期CO₂排放的影响最显著,电力碳足迹因子和废钢炼钢使用量次之.关于钢铁行业节能低碳技术,短期内以推广轧钢工序与高炉炼铁工序低碳技术为主,未来随着电炉...     

Carbon tax,emission trading,or the mixed policy: which is the most effective strategy for climate change mitigation in China?

China, as the world’s largest emitter, intends to achieve the peaking of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions around 2030 and to make best efforts to peak early to mitigate global change. Under this strategy, a dynamic, recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to analyze the economy, energy, and environment impact of CO₂ emission reduction policy based on 17 scenarios in China: carbon tax, emission trading scheme (ETS), and the mixed policy in different price level, in order to find out which kind of emission reduction strategy is more feasible. The results show that CO₂ emission in 2030 will be reduced with the implementation of tax, ETS and mixed policy, by 10–13 %, 12–14 %, and 18–28 %, respectively. From 2016 to 2030, China can reduce 18,338–24,156 Mt CO₂ through the implementation of mixed policy. Furthermore, relative to single policy, mixed policy has stronger effects on primary energy consumption cut, by 738–1124 Mtoe or 18–28 %, which will make CO₂ emissions reach a peak before 2030 and the peak emission is not greater than 12 billion tons which is in line with the reduction demand in China. Thus, the mixed policy is the most effective strategy so that mixed policy is recommended to parties included in Annex I in United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Kyoto Protocol and other countries with large potential of emission reduction, while ETS is suggested to countries with low carbon emissions per capita which can balance economic development and CO₂ mitigation.     

Cost estimates of the Kigali Amendment to phase-down hydrofluorocarbons

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are synthetically produced compounds primarily used for cooling purposes and with strong global warming properties. In this paper, we analyze the global abatement costs for achieving the substantial reductions in HFC consumption agreed in the Kigali Amendment (KA) of the Montreal Protocol from October 2016. We estimate that compliance with the KA is expected to remove 39 Pg CO₂eq or 61% of global baseline HFC emissions over the entire period 2018–2050. The marginal cost of meeting the KA targets is expected to remain below 60 €/t CO₂eq throughout the period in all world regions except for developed regions where legislation to control HFC emissions has already been in place since a few years. For the latter regions, the required HFC consumption reduction is expected to come at a marginal cost increasing steadily to between 90 and 118 €/t CO₂eq in 2050. Depending on the expected rate of technological development and the extent to which envisaged electricity savings can be realized, compliance with KA is estimated attainable at a global cost ranging from a net cost-saving of 240 billion € to a net cost of 350 billion € over the entire period 2018 to 2050 and with future global electricity-savings estimated at between 0.2% and 0.7% of expected future electricity consumption.