Near-miss events,risk messages,and decision making

Decades of research have sought to understand how disaster preparedness decisions are made. We believe one understudied factor is the impact of near-miss events. A near-miss occurs when an event (such as a hurricane or terrorist attack) has some non-trivial probability of ending in disaster (loss of life, property damage), but the negative outcome is avoided largely by chance (e.g., at the last minute, the storm dissipates or the bomb fails to detonate). In the first of two experiments, we study reactions to a hurricane threat when participants are told about prior near-miss events. We find that people with information about a prior near-miss event that has no negative consequences are less likely to take protective measures than those with either no information or information about a prior near-miss event that has salient negative information. Similar results have been shown in prior research, but we seek to understand people’s reasoning for the different reactions. We examine the role of an individual’s risk propensity and general level of optimism as possible explanatory variables for the “near-miss” effect. We find risk propensity to be stable across conditions, whereas general optimism is influenced by the type of prior near-miss information, so that optimism mediates how near-miss information impacts protective decisions. People who experience a potentially hazardous near-miss but escape without obvious cues of damage will feel more optimistic and take less protective action. In the second study, we test messages about the hazard’s risk and examine the impact of these messages to offset the influence of near-misses. We end by discussing the implications of near-misses for risk communication.     

Risk discourses and governance of high-level radioactive waste storage in Taiwan

Policy scholars have indicated that the quality of the solution to a perceived social problem depends on the adequacy of its framing. This paper examines how policy stakeholders and local residents frame the issue of the radioactive waste storage facility in Taiwan, the limits of institutional mechanisms in decision-making processes, and the implications of the deliberative forums undertaken by the national Stop Nukes Now organisation. The controversy illustrates the problems of a knowledge gap and the top-down procedures as well as the challenges that Taiwan faces in becoming a nuclear-free country. This case demonstrates civic society organisations’ efforts to challenge the ‘social–technical divide’ and technical experts’ prior definition of the ‘problems’ and selection of a ‘solution’. Deliberative forums enable the participation of affected communities to shape public discourses, which helps to strengthen public communication, improves citizen consciousness of nuclear waste issues, and attempts to link wider communities and public interests.     

A struggle for distributive fairness in waste disposal: Koto Ward and In-Ward Waste Disposal in the 23 wards of Tokyo

This study explores the politics of distributive fairness in Locally-Unwanted-Land-Uses (LULUs) siting by looking into how a movement in LULU disputes changes its attitude towards a frame of distributive fairness over a long period of time. Some kinds of facilities are often opposed by local residents because of negative side-effects, even as they are claimed to be necessary for the well-being of the wider public. Framing refers to actors’ signifying work, and how to frame distributive fairness plays a significant role in conflicts over such controversial land uses. In the 23 wards of Tokyo, distributive fairness in waste disposal among the wards has been a crucial issue. In the early 1970s, Koto Ward, which suffered a disproportionate burden of waste disposal, launched a campaign to rectify the unfairness. In-Ward Waste Disposal (IWWD), a frame of distributive fairness, played a central role in this movement. However, Koto Ward’s attitude towards this frame of distributive fairness changed over time. By examining why Koto Ward’s advocacy for IWWD varied over time, this study shows how Koto Ward’s stance on IWWD changed in conjunction with economic, policy, and political circumstances, thereby illuminating the importance of integrating socio-politico-economic contexts in framing analysis.     

A Risk-Based Approach to Evaluating Wildlife Demographics for Management in a Changing Climate: A Case Study of the Lewis’s Woodpecker

Given the projected threat that climate change poses to biodiversity, the need for proactive response efforts is clear. However, integrating uncertain climate change information into conservation planning is challenging, and more explicit guidance is needed. To this end, this article provides a specific example of how a risk-based approach can be used to incorporate a species’ response to climate into conservation decisions. This is shown by taking advantage of species’ response (i.e., impact) models that have been developed for a well-studied bird species of conservation concern. Specifically, we examine the current and potential impact of climate on nest survival of the Lewis’s Woodpecker (Melanerpes lewis) in two different habitats. To address climate uncertainty, climate scenarios are developed by manipulating historical weather observations to create ensembles (i.e., multiple sequences of daily weather) that reflect historical variability and potential climate change. These ensembles allow for a probabilistic evaluation of the risk posed to Lewis’s Woodpecker nest survival and are used in two demographic analyses. First, the relative value of each habitat is compared in terms of nest survival, and second, the likelihood of exceeding a critical population threshold is examined. By embedding the analyses in a risk framework, we show how management choices can be made to be commensurate with a defined level of acceptable risk. The results can be used to inform habitat prioritization and are discussed in the context of an economic framework for evaluating trade-offs between management alternatives.     

Making framing of uncertainty in water management practice explicit by using a participant-structured approach

By now, the need for addressing uncertainty in the management of water resources is widely recognized, yet there is little expertise and experience how to effectively deal with uncertainty in practice. Uncertainties in water management practice so far are mostly dealt with intuitively or based on experience. That way decisions can be quickly taken but analytic processes of deliberate reasoning are bypassed. To meet the desire of practitioners for better guidance and tools how to deal with uncertainty more practice-oriented systematic approaches are needed. For that purpose we consider it important to understand how practitioners frame uncertainties. In this paper we present an approach where water managers developed criteria of relevance to understand and address uncertainties. The empirical research took place in the Doñana region of the Guadalquivir estuary in southern Spain making use of the method of card sorting. Through the card sorting exercise a broad range of criteria to make sense of and describe uncertainties was produced by different subgroups, which were then merged into a shared list of criteria. That way framing differences were made explicit and communication on uncertainty and on framing differences was enhanced. In that, the present approach constitutes a first step to enabling reframing and overcoming framing differences, which are important features on the way to robust decision-making. Moreover, the elaborated criteria build a basis for the development of more structured approaches to deal with uncertainties in water management practice.     

Perceptions of visibility degradation in Hong Kong

The human dimensions of visibility degradation remain under-researched academically. Based on Zube and Sell's Process Model of the Perception of, and Response to, Environmental Change, a questionnaire survey was conducted in Hong Kong between 5 June 2012 and 26 January 2013 (n = 1,203). The respondents’ perceptions towards visibility degradation were collected. The results show that respondents were moderately knowledgeable to visibility degradation, perceiving the problem as anthropogenic and unfavorable and identifying the fight against the degradation as an important environmental issue. It is further deduced that the respondents’ physical and sociocultural attributes, and the way they gain information about visibility degradation, can affect their perceptions of visibility degradation. The results reveal that improving information channels can positively promote human sensitivity to and understanding of visibility degradation in order to mitigate it. Yet, any attempts to educate the lay public should not assume the existence of a homogenous community of like-minded people.     

Frames and Ambivalence in Context: An Analysis of Hands-On Experts’ Perception of the Welfare of Animals in Traveling Circuses in The Netherlands

The results of an empirical study into the perceptions of “hands-on” experts concerning the welfare of (non-human) animals in traveling circuses in the Netherlands are presented. A qualitative approach, based on in-depth conversations with trainers/performers, former trainers/performers, veterinarians, and an owner of an animal shelter, conveyed several patterns in the contextual construction of perceptions and the use of dissonance reduction strategies. Perceptions were analyzed with the help of the Symbolic Convergence Theory and the model of the frame of reference, consisting of knowledge, convictions, values, norms, and interests. The study shows that the debate regarding animals in circuses in the Netherlands is centered on the level of welfare that is required; the importance of animal welfare is not disputed. Arguments that were used differed according to the respondents’ specific backgrounds and can be placed on a gradient ranging from the conviction that the welfare of animals in circuses is sufficiently warranted and both human and animal enjoy the performance (right end), to the conviction that animal welfare in circuses is negative, combined with the idea that the goal of entertaining people does not outweigh that (left end). The study confirms that perceptions reflect people’s contexts, though the variety in scopes suggests that the (inter)relations between people and their context are complex in nature. Evidence of cognitive dissonance was abundant. Coping strategies were found to be used more by respondents towards the right end of the gradient, suggesting that those respondents experience more ambivalence. This encountered pattern of association between position on the gradient and frequency of dissonance reduction strategies calls for further research on the type of ambivalent feelings experienced. The authors argue that, to come to an agreement about the welfare of animals in circuses, including the way this welfare should be guaranteed, stakeholders from different contexts need to engage in a dialogue in which a distance is taken from right/wrong-schemes and that starts from acceptance of dilemmas and ambiguity.     

Experimental evidence for a dual pathway model analysis of coping with the climate crisis

Two experiments examined the psychological power of fear and group efficacy beliefs to increase environmental action intentions against the climate crisis. Extending a dual pathway model of coping with collective disadvantage, results showed evidence for emotion-focused approach coping: Environmental action intentions were increased by individuals' manipulated fear of the negative future consequences of the climate crisis (Experiments 1–2). Additionally, results showed evidence for problem-focused approach coping: Individuals' measured (Experiment 1) and manipulated group efficacy beliefs (Experiment 2) increased environmental action intentions. The results thus suggest that the dual pathway model can be successfully applied to a psychological analysis of emotion- and problem-focused approach coping with the climate crisis. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these results.     

Public Perceptions of California's Exceptional Drought

While the exceptional drought in California ended in 2017, the state is expected to experience similar droughts in the future. Understanding how individuals perceive the causes and consequences of drought will help frame future communication and planning efforts. We surveyed a panel of Californian residents about their perceptions of the 2012–2017 drought. We found a major disconnect in how our respondents perceived drought and water use. Respondents perceived the drought as being caused primarily by climatic factors and underestimated the role human water use, particularly agricultural use, had in exacerbating drought. Comparing our respondents across the state and across socio‐demographics, there were few differences in concern about drought but several differences in how residents thought drought should be managed. Such research can help water managers communicate about the specific concerns the public has about future droughts, as well as address misperceptions about the relationship between drought and water use.     

Fracking the Debate: Frame Shifts and Boundary Work in Dutch Decision Making on Shale Gas

The meaning of hydraulic fracturing for shale gas is contested worldwide: is it an energy game changer, a transition fuel, or a technology that poses severe environmental problems? In the Netherlands, a policy controversy developed in which fracturing was reframed from ‘business as usual’ to a potential environmental risk. This article theoretically and empirically describes this shift by arguing that the technology of hydraulic fracturing for shale gas is a boundary object that created a sphere of engagement for all sorts of actors. In this sphere, they negotiated a common but soft meaning of this technology. These negotiations consisted of frame contests. As part of those contests, the discursive strategies of framing and boundary work enabled opponents to create uncertainty about economic benefits and environmental impact. The shift in meaning transformed the issue from an economic one with standard governmental rules and regulations into a planning issue that needs more precaution.     

Framing Shale Gas for Policy-Making in Poland

Despite enthusiasm about new gas reserves, shale gas has not come to Poland without controversies. This study examines how shale gas has been framed as a public issue by political and business elites, experts, local communities and civil society organizations. Through a frame analysis, we found three main frames about shale gas: shale gas as a novel economic resource, as a strategic resource for energy security and as a threat. However, only the first two frames, proposed by political and business elites, have shaped the policy process. The third frame, constructed by local actors and civil society groups, has had minimal impact. We explain this exclusion drawing on the deficit model of risk communication. This approach reveals that Polish experts, and business and political actors, during their interactions with local groups, have framed proponents of the threat frame as ‘incompetent actors’ effectively excluding the threat frame from policy processes.     

“The Lucky country”? A critical exploration of community gardens and city–community relations in Australian cities

Urban agriculture (UA) has the potential to expand beyond the grassroots level to meet the social, cultural, economic and food needs of urban dwellers. At its core, UA represents an alternative use of urban space that occurs with or without government support or approval. The experiences of community gardeners and their views of, and engagement in, community gardens as a form of UA, or local “alternative food networks”, is a focal point of this paper. Relying on Australian city case studies, this paper explores community gardens, using critical urban approaches concerning “rights to the city” and diverse economies. Findings from this study reveal how community gardeners understand and participate in diverse economies and extended local food networks. They also identify respondents’ views of local councils as barriers to the emergence of community gardens, and other forms of UA, as a local response to growing concerns over impacts of the global food chain on food security. In contrast to other Western cities, effective city–community relations for community garden growth have yet to emerge in Australian cities, as key policy areas for urban sustainability and social cohesion.     

Framing fracking: scale-shifting and greenwashing risk in the oil and gas industry

In this paper, I examine corporate environmental communication on hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, and industry efforts to shape public perception of resource extraction and its impacts on the environment. I look at how the oil and gas industry (OGI) frames fracking to ease public fear by downplaying risk and shifting its scale with rhetoric presenting the benefits of this emergent technology. Contrasting and building on ecological modernisation versus risk society ideas, I use OGI print advertising supplemented by corporate social responsibility statements and other online material to critically evaluate framing in light of the practice of corporate greenwashing. Findings reveal OGI efforts to positively portray fracking in the interest of unfettered resource extraction and profits from energy production. Several themes emerge in OGI framing rhetoric, starting with the establishment of trust through education and claims of transparency and continuing with ideas touting safety and responsibility, scientific progress, economic benefits and jobs, energy security, environmental protection, and sustainability. On the whole, such rhetoric reflects ecological modernisation ideas that shift the perception of risk and its consequences, framing fracking in a way that obscures the negative impacts of dependency on a fossil fuel-based economy.     

公众生态文明素养及其科普教育研究

本文对国家文明城市芜湖市进行实地问卷调查发现:公众具有一定生态意识,但生态文明素养整体状况不佳。公众对生态文明概念比较了解和很了解的只占17.7%;各类人群对周围环境关注度较高,均在65%左右;有相关生态知识或行为的公众占92%;有76.7%的人表示没有破坏环境的行为;64.8%的受访者表示他们有保护环境的行为。通过生态科普教育现状调查发现:受访者对目前生态科普教育满意度只有25.9%,政府在生态科普教育方面还存在活动流于形式、创新性不强、投入不足、制度不完善、不能及时回应公众关切热点、专项科普匮乏、媒体不给力、内容不接地气、无区域特色、平台手段落后等问题。提出了提升公众生态文明素养需构建四个相互联动的科普教育体系:高度重视生态科普教育的思想体系、支撑生态科普教育的技术能力体系、生态科普教育的长效机制体系和具有区域特色生态科普教育内容体系。     

Shale We Drill? Discourse Dynamics in UK Fracking Debates

This article examines competing political discourses surrounding shale extraction in the UK. It asks how these meanings are communicated and why certain understandings of the issue gain prominence. Drawing on discourse analysis and framing studies, the article first distinguishes two competing coalitions (pro- and anti-shale) and their shared narratives or ‘storylines’ (shale opportunity versus shale threat). Through a systematic examination of press reports, websites and public documents, it identifies opposing discursive frames used to shape understanding, meaning and debates, and assesses their resonance and power. The article builds on existing interpretive studies by providing a finer-grained analysis of discourse success, and a greater emphasis on the coalition members who shape and deliver the agreed storyline. It argues that the anti-shale coalition in the UK has thus far enjoyed greater discourse success for two reasons: firstly, because the pro-shale coalition lacks trustworthy messengers; secondly, because shale opponents have successfully expanded the debate beyond economic or environmental concerns to include potent issues of local power and democracy.     

Soil and water conservation method adoption in a highly erosive watershed: the case of Southwest Oklahoma's Fort Cobb watershed

A major source of pollution in agricultural landscapes is surface runoff and non-point source pollution generated from agricultural production practices. In-stream, stream bank and riparian conservation/management practices can be implemented to reduce sediment loading solely or in conjunction with upland practices. Survey results from producers in the Fort Cobb Reservoir watershed, a highly erosive watershed in southwest Oklahoma with a history of state and federal conservation programs, provide information required for improving understanding of operators’ likelihood of adoption. Two models of soil and water conservation were estimated, a logit model of likelihood of enrollment and a Poisson model of the total number of practices adopted. Results reinforced previous findings that attitudes, gender and education influence conservation program enrollment. Farming experience, gender and attitudes towards conservation increased the total number of practices adopted.     

‘A system that works for the sea’? Exploring Stakeholder Engagement in Marine Spatial Planning

This paper aims to contribute to the current debate on Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) by exploring the issue of stakeholder engagement. MSP is an emergent policy field that is subject to an increasing body of research, yet the role, scope and nature of participatory engagement within the process remains a neglected topic. This paper briefly reviews the nature of the ‘marine problem’, to which MSP is seen to be the response and describes the emergence of MSP policy in the UK with specific emphasis on participatory aspects. Drawing on the experience of terrestrial planning it discusses the potential benefits of stakeholder engagement in MSP and highlights some of the key issues that need to be taken into account when shaping stakeholder input into the process. It then goes on to describe the findings from a series of interviews with key stakeholders in the Irish Sea Region, which suggest that we need to develop a more critical and deeper understanding of how various interests frame the ‘marine problem’, and how they see their role in shaping the form of the MSP process. This highlights the importance of encouraging stakeholder involvement in MSP, the need to develop a shared vision of a ‘sea interest’. Priorities are then set for research to support this important policy agenda.     

The Endorsement of the Moral Foundations in Food-Related Moral Thinking in Three European Countries

Food has become a prominent object of everyday moral discussions. This study examines how gender, political orientation, and country of origin are connected to moral foundation endorsement in food-related moral thinking. Respondents were university students (N = 371) from Finland, Denmark, and Italy who completed a word association task, in that given stimulus words were “ethical food” and “unethical food.” Results showed a presence of five moral foundations in the data, and indicated high prevalence of the Purity/Sanctity foundation in food-related moral thinking. As expected, gender differences emerged in the endorsement of the Fairness/Reciprocity and the Purity/Sanctity foundations. Also, between-country differences emerged in four of the five moral foundations, indicating that even within Europe countries may differ from each other in their endorsement of foundations. The results also verified the previously found effect of political orientation in three of the five moral foundations, although the study used a completely new and different type of method compared with previous studies. The study concludes by proposing more cross-national comparative studies where the focus is on the specific objects of moral thinking.