FUZZY DECISION MAKING IN GROUND WATER NITRATE RISK MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Ground water nitrate contamination is widespread in the United States and especially prevalent in agriculture-intensive areas such as the Midwest. To reduce human health risks (i.e., methemoglobinemia and cancer risks) from nitrates in ground water supplies, several nitrate risk-management strategies can be developed based on acceptable levels of human health risks, the reasonableness of the cost required for risk reduction, and the technical feasibility of nitrate-control methods. However, due to a lack of available information, assessing risk, cost, and technical feasibility contains elements of uncertainty. In this paper, a nitrate risk-management methodology using fuzzy sets in combination with a multicriterion decision-making (MCDM) technique is developed to assist decision makers in evaluating, with uncertain information, possible regulatory actions along with the various nitrate risk-management strategies in order to determine an appropriate strategy. The methodology is illustrated using data from a community with a nitrate water-quality problem.     

Developing consistent scenarios to assess flood hazards in mountain streams

The characterizing feature of extreme events in steep mountain streams is the multiplicity of possible tipping process patterns such as those involving sudden morphological changes due to intense local erosion, aggradation as well as clogging of critical flow sections due to wood accumulations. Resolving a substantial part of the uncertainties underlying these hydrological cause-effect chains is a major challenge for flood risk management. Our contribution is from a methodological perspective based on an expert-based methodology to unfold natural hazard process scenarios in mountain streams to retrace their probabilistic structure. As a first step we set up a convenient system representation for natural hazard process routing. In this setting, as a second step, we proceed deriving the possible and thus consistent natural hazard process patterns by means of Formative Scenario Analysis. In a last step, hazard assessment is refined by providing, through expert elicitation, the spatial probabilistic structure of individual scenario trajectories. As complement to the theory the applicability of the method is shown through embedded examples. To conclude we discuss the major advantages of the presented methodological approach for hazard assessment compared to traditional approaches, and with respect to the risk governance process.     

Estimating Floodwater Depths from Flood Inundation Maps and Topography

Information on flood inundation extent is important for understanding societal exposure, water storage volumes, flood wave attenuation, future flood hazard, and other variables. A number of organizations now provide flood inundation maps based on satellite remote sensing. These data products can efficiently and accurately provide the areal extent of a flood event, but do not provide floodwater depth, an important attribute for first responders and damage assessment. Here we present a new methodology and a GIS‐based tool, the Floodwater Depth Estimation Tool (FwDET), for estimating floodwater depth based solely on an inundation map and a digital elevation model (DEM). We compare the FwDET results against water depth maps derived from hydraulic simulation of two flood events, a large‐scale event for which we use medium resolution input layer (10 m) and a small‐scale event for which we use a high‐resolution (LiDAR; 1 m) input. Further testing is performed for two inundation maps with a number of challenging features that include a narrow valley, a large reservoir, and an urban setting. The results show FwDET can accurately calculate floodwater depth for diverse flooding scenarios but also leads to considerable bias in locations where the inundation extent does not align well with the DEM. In these locations, manual adjustment or higher spatial resolution input is required.     

A geostatistical and probabilistic spectral image processing methodology for monitoring potential CO2 leakages on the surface

Remote sensing has demonstrated success in various environmental applications over the past three decades. This is largely attributed to its ability for good areal coverage and continued development in sensor technologies. Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) is an emerging climate change mitigation technology where monitoring is vital for its sustainability. This research investigates the use of spectral remote sensing imagery in detecting potential CO₂ occurrences at the surface, should a leakage occur from subsurface reservoirs where CO₂ is stored. Currently, there are no known leakages of CO₂ at industrial storage sites, therefore, this research was carried out at the Latera natural analogue site in Italy, in order to develop the methodology described. This paper describes the use of a popular probabilistic information fusion theory, referred to as the Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence, to analyse outlier pixels (anomalies). Outlier pixels are first determined using a new geostatistical image filtering methodology based on Intrinsic Random Function (IRF), Independent Component Analysis (ICA), and the industry standard parametric Reed–Xiaoli (RX) anomaly detection. Information fusion of detected outlier pixels and indirect surface effects of CO₂ leakage over time, such as stressed vegetation or mineral alterations, assigns a confidence measure per outlier pixel in order to identify potential leakage points. After visual validation using direct field measurements, it was demonstrated that the proposed methodology is able to detect majority of the seepage points at Latera, and holds promise as a new unsupervised CO₂ monitoring methodology.     

Method for Rapidly Assessing the Overtopping Risk of Bridges Due to Flooding over a Large Geographic Region

Hydraulic events are a leading cause of bridge failures. While these hydraulic events are accounted for in bridge design, changing environmental and land use conditions require continual updating of this risk. For example, after a bridge has been constructed, streamflow can change in unanticipated ways as a result of land use changes, geomorphic changes, and climate change. The objective of this research was to create a screening method able to quickly and inexpensively estimate overtopping risk across a collection of bridges based on the current streamflow conditions. The method uses a geographic information system, nationally available and standardized datasets, and recent regression equations to quantify bridge vulnerability to overtopping for flooding with varying return periods. This screening method could also be used to assist decision makers in updating the Waterway Adequacy field in the National Bridge Inventory, which indicates the overtopping risk of bridges. The method was applied to a portion of the Hampton Roads region of Virginia, United States that includes 475 bridges. The results of the analysis, when combined with transportation data for bridges, aid decision makers to assign further resources to complete more detailed analyses of bridges identified as being at risk for overtopping.     

Coupling a 3D patch model and a rockfall module to assess rockfall protection in mountain forests

Many forests in the Alps are acknowledged for protecting objects, such as (rail) roads, against rockfall. However, there is a lack of knowledge on efficient silvicultural strategies and interventions to maintain these forests at optimal protection level. Therefore, assessment tools are required that quantify the rockfall protection effect of forest stands over time, and thereby provide the ability to evaluate the necessity and effect of management interventions. This paper introduces such a tool that consists of a 3D rockfall module embedded in the patch based forest simulator PICUS. The latter is extended for this study with a new regeneration module. In a series of experiments the new combined simulation tool is evaluated with regard to parameter sensitivity, model intercomparison experiments with recently proposed algorithms from the literature, and the ability to respond realistically to different management regimes in rockfall protection forests. Results confirm the potential of the new tool for realistic simulation of rockfall activity in heterogeneous mountain forests, but point at the urgent need to improve the knowledge base on the interaction of understory and rockfall activity. Further work will focus on model validation against empirical rockfall data, and include reduced tree vitality due to damage from boulder collisions as well as the explicit consideration of downed dead wood.     

Buying price of event information in two-action decision problems

Being able to determine in advance whether certain events occur or not enables a decision maker to reduce the uncertainty of a two-action lottery, although the exact outcome of the lottery may still not be known with certainty. This paper studies the á priori value of information in such a decision making environment. Of interest to the decision maker is to compare the value of information about different events in advance of gathering the information. Using buying price as value of information, we show that when information about the occurrence of two different events are offered to a risk neutral decision maker, the event with a greater contribution in absolute value to the expected value of the lottery has higher value in terms of its buying price. For risk averse decision makers, a preference condition needs to be imposed on the set difference of two events to obtain a generic conclusion. We provide several examples that demonstrate the usefulness of these results.     

Cracking the Achilles’ heel of energy performance contracting projects: the credit risk identification method for clients

ABSTRACT

A credit risk identification model is established to examine the credit status of Energy performance contracting (EPC) project clients (i.e., energy-using companies) in China based on rough set theory. The model is verified with data from 120 listed companies at different times. Study shows that lack of credit is one of the main obstacles to the implementation of EPC projects, and information asymmetry is the main reason for this lack of credit among potential clients in China. The credit risk identification method based on rough set theory can make up for the shortcomings of existing EPC projects in terms of credit risk identification, including redundant information and indicators, and unclear decision rules. Credit risk identification indicators of clients are dynamic. The research results can help energy service companies (ESCOs) determine the credit status of clients, facilitate cooperation between ESCOs and clients, and help explain the various dynamics of clients’ credit risk identification indicators over time.     

A GIS analysis of suitability for construction aggregate recycling sites using regional transportation network and population density features

Aggregate is used in road and building construction to provide bulk, strength, support, and wear resistance. Reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) and reclaimed Portland cement concrete (RPCC) are abundant and available sources of recycled aggregate. In this paper, current aggregate production operations in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia are used to develop spatial association models for the recycled aggregate industry with regional transportation network and population density features.The cost of construction aggregate to the end user is strongly influenced by the cost of transporting processed aggregate from the production site to the construction site. More than 60% of operations recycling aggregate in the mid-Atlantic study area are located within 4.8 km (3 miles) of an interstate highway. Transportation corridors provide both sites of likely road construction where aggregate is used and an efficient means to move both materials and on-site processing equipment back and forth from various work sites to the recycling operations.Urban and developing areas provide a high market demand for aggregate and a ready source of construction debris that may be processed into recycled aggregate. Most aggregate recycling operators in the study area are sited in counties with population densities exceeding 77 people/km² (200 people/mile²). No aggregate recycling operations are sited in counties with less than 19 people/km² (50 people/mile²), reflecting the lack of sufficient long-term sources of construction debris to be used as an aggregate source, as well as the lack of a sufficient market demand for aggregate in most rural areas to locate a recycling operation there or justify the required investment in the equipment to process and produce recycled aggregate.Weights of evidence analyses (WofE), measuring correlation on an area-normalized basis, and weighted logistic regression (WLR), are used to model the distribution of RAP and RPCC operations relative to transportation network and population distribution data. The models can be used on a regional scale to quickly map the relative site suitability for a RAP or RPCC aggregate recycling operation in a particular area based on transportation network and population parameters. The results can be used to identify general areas to be further evaluated on a site-specific basis using more detailed marketplace information. As transportation or population features change due to planning or actual development, the models can be easily revised to reflect these changes.     

Modeling Stream Channel Characteristics From Drainage‐Enforced DEMs in Puget Sound,Washington, USA1

Abstract: Mapping stream channels and their geomorphic attributes is an important step in many watershed research and management projects. Often insufficient field data exist to map hydromorphologic attributes across entire drainage basins, necessitating the application of hydrologic modeling tools to digital elevation models (DEMs) via a geographic information system (GIS). In this article, we demonstrate methods for deriving synthetic stream networks via GIS across large and diverse basins using drainage‐enforced DEMs, along with techniques for estimating channel widths and gradient on the reach scale. The two‐step drainage enforcement method we used produced synthetic stream networks that displayed a high degree of positional accuracy relative to the input streams. The accuracies of our estimated channel parameters were assessed with field data, and predictions of bankfull width, wetted width and gradient were strongly correlated with measured values (r² = 0.92, r² = 0.95, r² = 0.88, respectively). Classification accuracies of binned channel attributes were also high. Our methodology allows for the relatively rapid mapping of stream channels and associated morphological attributes across large geographic areas. Although initially developed to provide salmon recovery planners with important salmon habitat information, we suggest these methodologies are relevant to a variety of research and management questions.     

Assessing watershed transport of atrazine and nitrate to evaluate conservation practice effects and advise future monitoring strategies

Continued public support for U.S. taxpayer funded programs aimed at reducing agricultural pollutants depends on clear demonstrations of water quality improvements. The objective of this research was to determine if implementation of agricultural best management practices (BMPs) in the Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW) resulted in changes to atrazine and nitrate (NO₃–N) loads during storm events. An additional objective was to estimate future monitoring periods necessary to detect a 5, 10, 20, and 25% reduction in atrazine and NO₃–N event load. The GCEW is a 73 km² watershed located in northcentral Missouri, USA. Linear regressions and Akaike Information Criteria were used to determine if reductions in atrazine and NO₃–N event loads occurred as BMPs were implemented. No effects due to any BMP type were indicated for the period of record. Further investigation of event sampling from the long-term GCEW monitoring program indicated errors in atrazine load calculations may be possible due to pre-existing minimum threshold levels used to trigger autosampling and sample compositing. Variation of event loads was better explained by linear regressions for NO₃–N than for atrazine. Decommissioning of upstream monitoring stations during the study period represented a missed opportunity to further explain variation of event loads at the watershed outlet. Atrazine requires approximately twice the monitoring period relative to NO₃–N to detect future reductions in event load. Appropriate matching of pollutant transport mechanisms with autosampling protocols remains a critical information need when setting up or adapting watershed monitoring networks aimed at detecting watershed-scale BMP effects.     

Water quality indices appraisal and health risk assessment of nitrate,mercury and lead in water distribution network: A case study of Robat Karim in Tehran,Iran

Groundwater is a basic source of drinking water supply for urban and rural areas. This is especially the case for communities located in arid and semi-arid regions that rely on groundwater for drinking purposes. The present study set out to assess the potential health impacts of water impurities and to investigate the qualitative status of drinking water in Robat Karim rural areas, located in southwest Tehran, Iran. A total of 66 samples were collected from the water distribution network of 11 villages (33 sampling points, on two occasions) during September 2020 and were tested in terms of the most common quality parameters such as pH, mercury (Hg), lead (Pb), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), chloride (Cl^–), chlorate (ClO₃^–), nitrite (NO₂^–), nitrate (NO₃^–), and flouride (F^–). Multiple methods and indexes including water quality index (WQI), hazard quotient (HQ), and hazard index (HI), were worked out to assess the quality of water and health risk assessment of NO₃^– Pb²⁺ and Hg²⁺. The results revealed that 33% and 90% of sampling sites have significantly high nitrate and total hardness (TH) concentrations, exceeding the maximum permissible limits set by World Health Organization (WHO; 50 and 200 mg/L, respectively). Furthermore, five sampling points exhibited poor WQIs mainly related to NO₃^– and TH. HQ values higher than 1 for nitrate were noticed in most sampling locations. Except for one sampling point, the HQ obtained for Pb²⁺ and Hg²⁺ were below 1 indicating no obvious health hazard. This study represents that children and infants are at higher risk of chronic toxicity by excess NO₃^– intake. The health hazard that is yet imposed on the community by NO₃^– necessitates regular monitoring of drinking water, the use of advanced technologies to purify water or otherwise alternative resources should be proposed.     

Dynamic Risk Perception in Two Communities: Risk Events and Changes in Perceived Risk

This paper examines the relationship between perceived risk and hazard events in two communities in terms of the perception and acceptability of risk. One community experienced an acute risk event comprised of a fire at a chemical plant that resulted in a large-scale evacuation (an acute hazard). The other community was involved in a seven-year controversy over the siting of a hazardous waste incinerator (a chronic risk). While the results are broadly consistent with a learning model of perceived risk, the support is more limited than envisioned; hence, the static forces of risk perception are stronger than anticipated.     

CUMULATIVE IMPACTS OF LANDUSE ON WATER QUALITY IN A SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Water quality variables were sampled over 109 weeks along Coweeta Creek, a fifth-order stream located in the Appalachian mountains of western North Carolina. The purpose of this study was to observe any changes in water quality, over a range of flow conditions, with concomitant downstream changes in the mix of landuses. Variables sampled include pH, HCO₃^2?, conductivity, NO₃^?_?-N, NH₄⁺-N, PO₄^3?-P, C1^?-, Na, K, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, SO₄^2?, 5iO₂, turbidity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, total and fecal coliform, and focal streptococcus. Landcover/landuse was interpreted from 1:20,000 aerial photographs and entered in a GIS, along with information on total and paved road length, building location and density, catchment boundaries, hydrography, and slope. Linear regressions were performed to relate basin and near-stream landscape variables to water quality. Consistent, cumulative, downstream changes in water quality variables were observed along Coweeta Creek, concomitant with downstream, human-caused changes in landuse. Furthermore, larger downstream changes in water quality variables were observed during stormflow when compared to baseflow, suggesting cumulative impacts due to landscape alteration under study conditions were much greater during storm events. Although most water quality regulations, legislation, and sampling are promulgated for baseflow conditions, this work indicates they should also consider the cumulative impacts of physical, chemical, and biological water quality during stormflow.     

A Critical Realist Perspective on Urban Environmental Risk: A case study of an informal settlement in South Africa

This paper uses a critical realist framework to analyse environmental risk in a local space. It argues that urban risk needs to be understood in terms of the causal mechanisms that shape risk events and the contingent conditions that provide the context within which they occur. It uses a case study of an informal settlement in Hout Bay, South Africa, to explore these ideas. It is an approach that challenges the dominant technical and scientific discourse that usually determines the understanding of risk. The research suggests that the key causal mechanisms that shape risk events in informal settlements are globalisation and urbanisation, poverty and vulnerability, the social construction of environmental problems, gender relations, the rise of civil society organisations, political governance and the spatial distribution of risk. The environmental characteristics of the site, as well as the development of the settlement during the political transformation in South Africa, are the key contingent conditions determining the nature of risk.     

FLOOD HAZARD IDENTIFICATION AND FLOOD PLAIN MANAGEMENT ON ALLUVIAL FANS1

ABSTRACT: Recognition of the flood hazard that exists on alluvial fans has seriously lagged behind the recognition of other more conventional flood hazards such as those associated with most rivers. This delay in recognition was due, until recently, to a general lack of economic investment and development in these areas and a concomitant lack of historical alluvial fan flood damage. Dramatic recent events, such as Tropical Storm Kathleen, emphasized to the Federal Insurance Administration (FIA) the need for developing an appropriate methodology to identify flood hazard areas on alluvial fans. This paper presents the methodology now employed by FIA as well as flood plain management considerations that could reduce future flood related damage to communities developing in these areas.     

Classifying the Health of Connecticut Streams Using Benthic Macroinvertebrates with Implications for Water Management

Bioassessments have formed the foundation of many water quality monitoring programs throughout the United States. Like many state water quality programs, Connecticut has developed a relational database containing information about species richness, species composition, relative abundance, and feeding relationships among macroinvertebrates present in stream and river systems. Geographic Information Systems can provide estimates of landscape condition and watershed characteristics and when combined with measurements of stream biology, provide a useful visual display of information that is useful in a management context. The objective of our study was to estimate the stream health for all wadeable stream kilometers in Connecticut using a combination of macroinvertebrate metrics and landscape variables. We developed and evaluated models using an information theoretic approach to predict stream health as measured by macroinvertebrate multimetric index (MMI) and identified the best fitting model as a three variable model, including percent impervious land cover, a wetlands metric, and catchment slope that best fit the MMI scores (adj-R ² = 0.56, SE = 11.73). We then provide examples of how modeling can augment existing programs to support water management policies under the Federal Clean Water Act such as stream assessments and anti-degradation.     

Toward a Sectorwide Design for Environment Support System for the Rail Industry

Rail has an important role to play in the development toward a sustainable transportation system. In this perspective, the European Brite Euram Project RAVEL (Rail Vehicle Eco-Efficient Design) has developed a rail sectorwide Design for Environment system to be used and standardized throughout the full supply chain. At the core of the system, quantitative environmental performance indicators for rail vehicles and components are used to incorporate environmental performance target levels in the product requirements and to measure and communicate achieved environmental performance. The concept of eco-efficiency is used to integrate both environmental and economical considerations. The methodology further builds on a standardized material list, standardized data formats, and proactive design guidance. To date, first steps are already taken to integrate the RAVEL project results into sector initiatives toward industrywide acceptance and standardization.Published online Note: This version was published online in June 2005 with the cover date of August 2004.     

Flood hazard assessment for land-use planning near desert mountains

Metropolitan areas located in arid and semiarid environments are rapidly expanding onto the piedmonts of nearby desert mountains. Hazards to urban development are posed by the complex fluvial systems that characterize these environments, yet no generally accepted methodology exists for evaluating flood hazards on desert piedmonts. An approach to flood hazard assessment is presented that involves the hydrogeomorphic analysis of land surfaces. Five flood hazard zones are identified for an area in central Arizona by analyzing the spatial variation of landforms and their associated fluvial processes. The methodology is applicable to similar environments elsewhere because it is based on the identification of forms and processes common to arid regions. The information provided by the analysis can form the basis for a comprehensive flood hazard management plan.