The European Union Solidarity Fund

This paper examines the legitimacy, viability and efficiency of the European Union Solidarity Fund by asking whether the Fund meets its stated purpose of providing solidarity within the EU, whether it is sufficiently capitalized and if it promotes disaster risk reduction in Europe. In examining these questions, we make use of ADAM models of disaster risks throughout Europe. We conclude that the Solidarity Fund falls short on all three counts, and we suggest possible alternatives. Most far-reaching, we explore whether the EUSF could support insurance systems in Europe by, among other possible activities, capitalizing national public-private insurance programs and providing support for government risk transfer. This would leverage the Fund’s capital and would overcome barriers to the provision of private and public sector insurance in uncertain catastrophe markets. It would also make insurance more affordable to Europe’s most vulnerable communities. Finally, it would reduce the disincentives for risk reduction inherent in post-disaster assistance.     

Financial adaptation to disaster risk in the European Union

Increasing losses from weather related extreme events coupled with limited coping capacity suggest a need for strong adaptation commitments, of which public sector responses to adjustments to actual and expected climate stimuli are key. The European Commission has started to address this need in the emerging European Union (EU) climate adaptation strategy; yet, a specific rationale for adaptation interventions has not clearly been identified, and the economic case for adaptation to extremes remains vague. Basing the diagnosis on economic welfare theory and an empirical analysis of the current EU and member states’ roles in managing disaster risk, we discuss how and where the public sector may intervene for managing climate variability and change. We restrict our analysis to financial disaster management, a domain of adaptation intervention, which is of key concern for the EU adaptation strategy. We analyse three areas of public sector interventions, supporting national insurance systems, providing compensation to the affected post event as well as intergovernmental loss sharing through the EU solidarity fund, according to the three government functions of allocation, distribution, and stabilization suggested by welfare theory, and suggest room for improvement.     

Reducing the risks posed by natural hazards and climate change: the need for a participatory dialogue between the scientific community and policy makers

In the last two decades we witnessed a progressive shift in the approach towards the reduction of the impact of natural hazards. From a general reactive approach, focusing on strengthening disaster response mechanisms, we have moved to proactive approaches. There has been recognition that each element of society, from public institutions to private sector, from community-based organizations to every single individual, can make a difference by acting before disasters strike to reduce the associated risks of human and economic losses. This proactive approach can be summarized in three words: Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR).Today, DRR is an approach used in several sectors and research areas. In the Development sphere, DRR is considered a key feature for sustainability of economic and development gains – especially for developing countries. Significantly, the United Nations Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (2009) is titled “Risk and poverty in a changing climate” highlighting the importance of DRR in reducing poverty while being a means to address the challenges posed by adaptation to climate change.This paper, which serves as an introduction to the special issue of Environment Science & Policy on climate change impact on water-related disasters, intends to provide readers with an overview of the main policy frameworks addressing DRR internationally and in Europe. Further, it aims to offer some “food for thought” on the underlying opportunities we have to enhance the resilience of our communities towards the risks posed by weather-related hazards. It stresses the importance of governance of risks, which starts from an effective dialogue between the scientific community and the policy makers: those who have the responsibility to decide on the most cost-effective interventions to address climate change adaptation and risk reduction.     

Public perception, knowledge and policy support for mitigation and adaption to Climate Change in Costa Rica: Comparisons with North American and European studies

Over the past 20 years considerable efforts have been invested in exploring how the public understands climate change. However, the bulk of this research has been conducted in Europe and North America and little is known about public perceptions of climate change in developing countries. This article presents the results of the first nationally representative study (n?=?1473) of public perceptions of climate change in Costa Rica. In Costa Rica, a large proportion of interviewees (i.e. over 85%) are highly concerned about climate change in general and feel, as noted in European and North American studies, that its impacts are more worrisome for people farthest away (e.g. in the developed countries or among future generations). At the local level, people feel that food (10.5%) and water (16.1%) shortages as well as poverty (11.3%) and heat waves (11.7%) are the most expected impacts of climate change. Analysis of adaptation behaviour responses suggest that individuals have a relatively lower grasp of emergency and prevention disaster plans but are relatively more proactive in preventing hydro-meteorological extremes related to water scarcity or excess. A majority of respondents engage in mitigation behaviours largely for financial or contextual reasons. Finally, support for adaptation and mitigation policy responses is generally high (i.e. above 70% of interviewee supports them) except for the case of internalizing the cost of watershed protection increasing the water tariffs (52.5%). As discussions about mitigation and adaptation become increasingly common within developing countries, questions about public perceptions in that context are more pressing than ever. Work on climate perceptions needs to be carried out in specific countries to better understand which policies are most likely to resonate with public support, and which might be most difficult to implement.     

River flood risk and adaptation in Europe—assessment of the present status

Flood disasters have had a devastating effect worldwide over the past century, both in terms of human suffering and material losses. The study of these events and development of more effective adaptation and mitigation policies has become a priority, both in Europe and other parts of the globe. This paper detects and presents the spatial distribution of river flood risks in Europe. The methodology we developed involves an assessment of three key risk components: exposure, vulnerability and hazard. A topography-based flood hazard map of Europe, identifying low-lying areas adjacent to rivers, is presented and used to identify risk, together with land-use data and damage-stage relationship for different land uses. The study covers river flood risk for the entire European continent. This methodology can be used to determine the level of future risk, using the estimations on Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability from specific climate and economic development models. Annual average flood damage is estimated for European regions, in absolute monetary terms and in % of regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The results highlight regions where the threat to the economy from river flood hazard is of major concern.     

Disaster risk reduction and international catastrophe risk insurance facility

The objectives of this research are to investigate resource loss effects from flooding and to provide recommendations on disaster risk reduction policies. This research utilized a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which found that losses of resources had major negative impacts on real gross domestic product (GDP). Transitioning from national catastrophe insurance fund to an international risk pooling approach is discussed, and as the Global Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility has not yet been established, our proposal suggests the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus three (ASEAN?+?3) Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (ACRIF) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus three catastrophic bonds (ASEAN?+?3 CAT bonds) as effective means of reducing fiscal liabilities arising from natural disasters, also effectively enhancing disaster risk reduction. These tools are complementary to Catastrophe Risk Swaps which are innovative global financial adaptation strategies designed to make communities and governments more resilient to disaster damages. They are ex-ante risk financing tools and sources of liquidity for damage restoration and economic recovery, which facilitates flexibility among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus three (ASEAN?+?3) and other governments requiring special assistance. Most importantly, utilization of insurance and catastrophic bonds promotes the achievement of set objectives of global adaptation strategies, sustainable economic growth, and climate resilient development.     

Modelling economic impacts and adaptation to extreme events: Insights from European case studies

Adaptation to climate change in Europe has only recently become a true policy concern with the management of extreme events one priority item. Irrespective of future climatic changes increasing the need for systematic evaluation and management of extremes, weather-related disasters already today pose substantial burdens for households, businesses and governments. Research in the ADAM project identified substantial direct risks in terms of potential crop and asset losses due to combined drought and heatwave, as well as flood hazards in Southern and Eastern Europe, respectively. This paper focuses on the indirect, medium to longer term economic risks triggered by the direct risks and mediated by policy responses. We present a selection of three economic impact and adaptation assessments and modelling studies undertaken on extreme event adaptation in Europe. Responding to a need for more economically based adaptation assessments, we address some relatively unresearched issues such as the understanding of past adaptation, the role of market response to impacts as well as government’s ability to plan for and share out extreme event risks. The first analysis undertakes an empirical exploration of observed impacts and adaptation in the agricultural sector in the UK comparing the impact of consecutive extreme events over time in order to determine whether adaptation has occurred in the past and whether this can be used to inform future estimates of adaptation rates. We find that farmers and the agricultural sector clearly have adapted to extreme events over time, but whether this rate can be maintained into the future is unclear, as some autonomous adaptation enacted seemed rather easy to be taken. Markets may mediate or amplify impacts and in the second analysis, we use an economic general equilibrium model to assess the economic effects of a reduction in agricultural production due to drought and heatwave risk in exposed regions in Spain. The analysis suggests that modelled losses to the local economy are more serious in a large-scale scenario when neighbouring provinces are also affected by drought and heatwave events. This is due to the supply-side induced price increase leading to some passing on of disaster costs to consumers. The simulation highlights the importance of paying particular attention to the spatial and distributional effects weather extremes and possibly changes therein induced by climate change may incur. Finally, we discuss how national governments may better plan their disaster liabilities resulting from a need to manage relief and reconstruction activities post event. We do so using a risk based economic planning model assessing the fiscal consequences associated with the coping with natural extremes. We identify large weather-related disaster contingent liabilities, particularly in the key flood hot spot countries Austria, Romania, and Hungary. Such substantial disaster liabilities (“hidden disaster deficits”) when interacting with weak fiscal conditions may lead to substantial additional stress on government budgets and reduced fiscal space for funding other relevant public investment projects. Overall, our paper suggests the importance of respecting the specific spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme event risk when generating information on adaptation decisions. As our adaptation decisions considered, such as using sovereign risk financing instruments are associated with a rather short time horizon, the analysis largely focuses on the management of today’s extreme events and does not discuss in detail projections of risks into a future with climate change. Such projections raise important issues of uncertainty, which in some instances may actually render future projections non-robust, a constraint to be kept in mind when addressing longer term decisions, which at the same time should account for both climate and also socioeconomic change.     

内嵌POT损失分布拟合模型的风暴潮灾害风险价值测算

近年来,全球气候的异常变化导致风暴潮灾害频发,给我国造成了巨大灾害性损失。科学测算风暴潮灾害的风险价值,对于度量风暴潮灾害风险、估计风暴潮灾害损失、指导灾害风险有效分散具有重要意义。针对中国风暴潮灾害损失数据鲜明的频率低、厚尾性特征,本文引入极值理论的POT模型完成风暴潮灾害直接经济损失分布拟合,测算出不同置信水平下的风险价值,并通过了Kupiec失败频率检验。研究表明,运用POT模型测算不同置信水平下的风险价值可以作为今后中国风暴潮灾害风险科学度量以及单次灾害最大可能损失合理估计的基础。     

Analyzing flood risk and related impacts to urban communities in central Vietnam

This study aims at understanding flood risks and their impact on a community, in order to enhance communities’ resilience and adaptive capacity to these threats. It also investigates the possibility of looking at and handling risk from a resilience point of view. Therefore, while a conventional risk management process is employed in this study, social, physical, economic, and institutional dimensions of resilience are also included in order to grasp the extent of risks and the ways in which communities face, cope with, and recover from flooding. Findings showed that there was no significant difference in the perception of flood risk among household heads educated up to secondary school level, suggesting that they believe floods are purely natural events. Those with a higher level of education (high school and above) (82.7 % of respondents) were aware that flood disasters are the result of hazard and vulnerability combined. In addition, social dynamics were apparently strengthened by such disasters, which resulted in cohesion and mutual help following floods in some wards. Also, households with more sources of income and more savings appear to recover faster than others after a flooding event. With regard to governance and networks, greater efforts have to be made by local institutions to ensure basic functioning during and after disaster events and to invest more into risk reduction activities. However, further studies need to be conducted to clarify the understanding of the impact flood disasters have on the environment and community lives and livelihoods in general, as traditional coping strategies, although still practical, no longer suffice in the face of changes in climate and environment.     

Disseminating near-real-time hazards information and flood maps in the Philippines through Web-GIS

The Philippines being a locus of tropical cyclones, tsunamis, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, is a hotbed of disasters. These natural hazards inflict loss of lives and costly damage to property. Situated in a region where climate and geophysical tempest is common, the Philippines will inevitably suffer from calamities similar to those experienced recently. With continued development and population growth in hazard prone areas, it is expected that damage to infrastructure and human losses would persist and even rise unless appropriate measures are immediately implemented by government. In 2012, the Philippines launched a responsive program for disaster prevention and mitigation called the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH), specifically for government warning agencies to be able to provide a 6 hr lead-time warning to vulnerable communities against impending floods and to use advanced technology to enhance current geo-hazard vulnerability maps. To disseminate such critical information to as wide an audience as possible, a Web-GIS using mashups of freely available source codes and application program interface (APIs) was developed and can be found in the URLs http:// noah.dost.gov.ph and http://noah.up.edu.ph/. This Web-GIS tool is now heavily used by local government units in the Philippines in their disaster prevention and mitigation efforts and can be replicated in countries that have a proactive approach to address the impacts of natural hazards but lack sufficient funds.     

Impact and adaptation opportunities for European agriculture in response to climatic change and variability

Climate change, involving changes in mean climate and climatic variability, is expected to severely affect agriculture and there is a need to assess its impact in order to define the appropriate adaptation strategies to cope with. In this paper, we projected a scenario of European agriculture in a +2°C (above pre-industrial levels) world in order to assess the potential effect of climatic change and variability and to test the effectiveness of different adaptation options. For this purpose, the outputs of HadCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) were empirically downscaled for current climate (1975–2005) and a future period (2030–2060), to feed a process-based crop simulation model, in order to quantify the impact of a changing climate on agriculture emphasising the impact due to changes in the frequency of extreme events (heat waves and drought). The same climatic dataset was used to compare the effectiveness of different adaptations to a warmer climate strategies including advanced or delayed sowing time, shorter or longer cycle cultivar and irrigation. The results indicated that both changes in mean climate and climate variability affected crop growth resulting in different crop fitting capacity to cope with climate change. This capacity mainly depended on the crop type and the geographical area across Europe. A +2°C scenario had a higher impact on crops cultivated over the Mediterranean basin than on those cultivated in central and northern Europe as a consequence of drier and hotter conditions. In contrast, crops cultivated in Northern Europe generally exhibited higher than current yields, as a consequence of wetter conditions, and temperatures closer to the optimum growing conditions. Simple, no-cost adaptation options such as advancement of sowing dates or the use of longer cycle varieties may be implemented to tackle the expected yield loss in southern Europe as well as to exploit possible advantages in northern regions.     

基于互联网的自然灾害风险沟通平台研究

通过调查发现,国内自然灾害风险沟通平台尚不完善,普遍存在沟通主体分类不清、风险消息真假难辨、沟通方式单一等不足之处,本文针对这些问题开展研究。通过案例分析,明确将沟通主体分为政府、专家和公众三类;利用多指标综合评价法构建面向沟通过程的自然灾害风险消息评价体系;并集成多种网络通信技术建设一个基于互联网的自然灾害风险沟通示...     

Adaptive governance to typhoon disasters for coastal sustainability: A case study in Guangdong,China

Globally, more people and assets are concentrated on the limited coastal plains where they are exposed to frequent disasters, such as typhoons, rainstorms and floods that often result in tremendous casualties and economic losses. Based on the causal analysis of the historical typhoon cases in the Guangdong Province of China, this study indicates that structural measures alone are not sufficient to resist and offset the impacts caused by typhoon disasters. Additionally, structural measures are unsustainable due to their high investment and low security. Adaptive governance, which uses non-structural measures and resilience building, is a feasible and cost-effective strategy for responding to the cascading effects of typhoon disasters. Multi-stakeholder participation and vertical–horizontal coordination are essential for providing adaptive governance to typhoon disasters. A risk-sharing model was put forward by bringing together the government, insurance companies and victims. Furthermore, a favorable atmosphere for public participation in disaster risk reduction can be fostered and should be a long-term adaptation strategy. The views and frameworks of adaptive governance provide policy makers with insights on coastal disaster risk management within the broader context of climate change.     

Effects of bioenergy policies and targets on European wetland restoration options

The EU is committed to combat climate change and to increase security of its energy supply. Bioenergy from forestry and agriculture plays a key role for both. Concurrently, the EU agreed to halt the loss of biodiversity within its member states. To fulfil the biodiversity target more nature conservation and restoration sites need to be designated. There are arising concerns that an increased cultivation of bioenergy crops will decrease the land available for nature reserves and for “traditional” agriculture and forestry. To assess the role of bioenergy in light of possible negative impacts on ecosystems, the European Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (EUFASOM) assesses simultaneously economic and environmental aspects of land use. This study contributes to the assessment by analyzing the effect of bioenergy production on European wetland allocations by incorporating the spatial wetland distribution model SWEDI into EUFASOM. Results show that bioenergy targets increase land competition and thus marginal costs of wetland preservation but also of food prices. The designation of national wetland conservation targets, on the other hand, stimulates land use intensification in countries without these targets and here only a transfer of environmental stresses takes place. The model is able to illustrate regional differences of results.     

1949-2013年中国气象灾害灾情变化趋势分析

全球气候变暖和城市化带来的气象致灾因子强度、频率以及承灾体暴露性变化,使气象灾害风险管理变得更加复杂,也使其成为各国应对气候变化的当务之急和优先重点。气象灾害灾情的趋势分析可以为气象灾害防御、防灾减灾规划和气候变化适应等提供参考依据。论文从气象灾害损失和发生频次两个维度出发,基于死亡人口和直接经济损失两个表征灾害影响的关键指标,以绝对值和相对值统计了近65 a（1949-2013 年）中国气象灾害灾情的变化特征。近65 a 我国气象灾害统计结果显示：①累积死亡人口超过155 万人,死亡人口和百万人口死亡率呈明显下降趋势,年均死亡人口由20 世纪50 到60 年代的超过10 000 人逐步下降到21 世纪以来的年均约1 000 人;②直接经济损失累积约12 万亿元（2013 年价格）,直接损失绝对值呈上升趋势,年均直接经济损失由20 世纪50 年代不足1 000 亿元上升至21 世纪以来的超过 3 000 亿元,直接损失比率（直接损失占国内生产总值的比例）呈明显下降趋势,损失率由20 世纪50~60 年代超过15%下降到21 世纪以来的1%左右;③近20 a（1994-2013 年）气象灾害灾情分析表明,死亡人口和直接经济损失占所有自然灾害的比例多年平均值分别为55%和87%,考虑气象相关的滑坡、泥石流等次生地质灾害影响,该比例分别增至81%和89%,次生灾害对人口死亡的贡献突增;全球灾害数据库（EM-DAT）的统计表明,洪涝、台风、干旱和降水相关的滑坡、泥石流等次生灾害是影响中国的主要气象灾害,且影响呈上升趋势。     

A global assessment of adaptation investment from the perspectives of equity and efficiency

Equity and efficiency should be considered when allocating resources for climate change adaptation. More than a decade after the Least Developed Countries Fund approved adaptation funds for 18 countries in 2003, it is possible to take the stock of investment data and to test empirically whether equity and efficiency have been factored into adaptation investment decision-making. To evaluate equity, one must determine if resources were distributed to areas of greatest need. Vulnerability assessments provide information on the global distribution of the need for adaptation. To evaluate efficiency, one must compare cost and benefit of an investment. Although it is difficult to assess ex-ante the cost and benefit of investment strategies, it is possible to measure efficient use of expenditures with readiness assessment, as a metric of capacity to deploy adaptation resources. We used vulnerability and readiness measures of the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) Country Index as proxies of equity and efficiency. This article quantitatively interrogates—through the lens of public fund allocation—the roles of vulnerability and readiness in shaping adaptation investment decisions. Our findings suggest that countries facing increasing impacts from climate change have received more adaptation investments from international sources than countries with less vulnerability. Further, international investments also preferentially flow to countries that are more ready to deploy adaptation resources. Since the most vulnerable countries are likely to be less ready for investment, our findings support the efforts to improve the investment potential of the most vulnerable countries by investing first to enhance their readiness, in order to unlock adaptation solutions.     

Individual preferences for reducing flood risk to near zero through elevation

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of natural disasters. Adaptation investments are required in order to limit the projected increase in natural disaster risks. Adaptation measures can reduce risk partially or completely eliminate risk. The literature on behavioural economics suggests that individuals rarely undertake measures that limit risk partially, while they may place a considerable value on measures that reduce risk to zero. This is studied for a case of adaptation to climate change and its effects on flood risk in the Netherlands. In particular, we examine whether households are willing to invest in elevating newly built structures when this is framed as eliminating flood risk. The results indicate that a majority of homeowners (52%) is willing to make a substantial investment of €10,000 to elevate a new house to a level that is safe to flooding. Differences between willingness to pay (WTP) for flood insurance and WTP for risk elimination through elevation indicate that individuals place a considerable value on the latter adaptation option. This study estimates that the “safety premium” which individuals place on risk elimination is approximately between €35 and €45 per month. The existence of a safety premium has important implications for the design of climate change adaptation policies. The decision to invest in elevating homes is significantly correlated with the expected negative effects of climate change, perceptions of flood risks, individual risk attitudes, and living close to a main river.     

海洋动力灾害承灾体脆弱性评价分析——以海口市为例

科学地进行海洋承灾体灾害脆弱性评价,是完善海洋灾害监测、预警、防控体系的基础,是海洋灾害风险管理的重要组成部分。本文以海洋动力灾害多发的海口市为例,在系统开展承灾体调查分析的基础上,从自然和社会属性两个方面对该市进行了脆弱性分析和评价。利用GIS技术,对研究结果进行了标准化制图。结果表明,海拔较低的港湾地区、人口密集区更易受到海洋动力灾害的影响。海口市极高脆弱性区域共439 km2, 主要集中在人口和重要承灾体较密集的市中心秀英区、龙华区、美兰区北部沿海区域和西秀镇西部等区域。本文关于海洋动力灾害承灾体脆弱性的评价结果属于海口市专题海洋灾害风险调查和评价结果,可为海口市规划布局、海洋动力灾害风险防范提供重要参考。     

结构突变视角下政府灾害支出的平稳协调机制

完备的防灾减灾机制的构建离不开政府的指导和支持,以典型海洋风暴潮灾害为研究对象,结合我国1990年以来沿海地区政府防灾减灾财政支出和风暴潮经济损失数据,构建衡量政府灾害防御能力的协调度指标。利用傅里叶变换对政府补贴灾害的协调度进行检验,发现其存在突变特征并依据非线性平稳性检验对补贴协调度进行动态拟合。测度结果显示,从长期来看,防灾减灾总支出灾害协调度,科技教育支出灾害协调度、城市建设灾害协调度、社会福利灾害协调度均显著上升,指出降低对政府支出过度依赖、探索多元的防灾减灾机制是提高我国灾害应急管理效率的重要措施。     

衡阳市早稻洪涝灾害风险区划研究

依托GIS技术,采用自然灾害风险评价的理论和方法,建立早稻洪涝灾害风险评价模型,研究了衡阳市早稻洪涝灾害风险等级。结果表明:综合分析早稻洪涝灾害的致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力,绘制了衡阳市早稻洪涝灾害综合风险区划图,并分析了衡阳市早稻洪涝灾害风险区划的空间分布规律和特点。衡东县早稻洪涝灾害风险等级最高,祁东县早稻洪涝灾害综合风险等级最低。