GIS BASED LONG TERM HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EVALUATION FOR WATERSHED URBANIZATION1

ABSTRACT: To adequately manage impacts of ongoing or future land use changes in a watershed, the magnitude of their hydrologic impacts needs to be assessed. A grid based daily streamflow model was calibrated with two years of observed streamflow data, using time periods when land use data are available and verified by comparison of model predictions with observed streamflow data. Streamflow data were separated into direct runoff and baseflow to estimate the impacts of urbanization on each hydrologic component. Analysis of the ratio between direct runoff and total runoff from 30 years of simulation results and the change in these ratios with urbanization shows that estimated annual direct runoff increased from 49.2 percent (1973) to 63.1 percent (1984) and 65.0 percent (1991), indicating the effects of urbanization are greater on direct runoff than on total runoff. The direct runoff ratio also varies with annual rainfall, with dry year ratios larger than those for wet years. This suggests that the impact of urbanization on areas that are sensitive to runoff ratios, such as stream ecosystems, might be more serious during drier years than in wetter years in terms of water quality and water yield. This indicates that sustainable base‐flow is important to maintaining sound stream ecosystems.     

A free,open-source tool for identifying urban agglomerations using polygon data

This paper describes the function of a software tool for identifying urban agglomerations in low-information settings using free, open data. The framework outlined here is designed to work using polygon data. This paper describes the advantages and disadvantages of using polygon-based geographies in regional analysis, discusses the practical and ethical challenges of distinguishing urban from rural regions, and discusses the relevance of this tool in the analysis of global city regions. It also describes the logical structure of our polygon-based software tool and directs interested readers to the source code. We finally examine the agglomeration results for Sri Lanka and compare them with published urbanization figures. We conclude that there are very large disparities between our model’s outputs and the urbanization estimates from the United Nations and that our tools can be used as a less discretionary way to identify actual levels of urbanization. We hope that other analysts will continue to refine the progression toward a less discretionary model of identifying urban regions.     

Modeling the Effects of Land Use Change on the Water Temperature in Unregulated Urban Streams

Streams, in their natural state, are typically diverse and biologically productive environments. Streams subject to urbanization often experience degradation brought about by the cumulative effects of flow alteration, unsanitary discharge and channelization. One of the water quality parameters affected by urbanization is stream temperature. This study offers a model for predicting the impact of land use change on the temperature of non-regulated streams during extreme events. A stream temperature model was created by considering the gains and losses of thermal energy resulting from radiation, convection, conduction, evaporation and advection. A sensitivity analysis showed that out of 14 variables, shade/transmissivity of riparian vegetation, groundwater discharge, and stream width had the greatest influence on stream temperature. These same three variables are highly influenced by land use. Individual component models were developed to predict how urbanization changes stream width and baseflow discharge. Using 3-D computer modeling, a model was also developed to illustrate the effects of altering the extent and composition of riparian vegetation on streams with different orientations. By modeling these three variables as a function of urbanization, the results became inputs into the stream temperature model. The critical urban stream temperature model (CrUSTe), an aggregation of these four models, allows the prediction of stream temperature change as a result of amount, type and location of urbanization within a watershed. It has the potential to become a valuable tool for environmental managers.     

PROJECTION OF URBANIZATION EFFECTS ON RUNOFF USING CLARK INSTANTANEOUS UNIT HYDROGRAPH PARAMETERS1

ABSTRACT: To alleviate serious flooding problems brought upon by rapid urbanization in the Beargrass Creek watershed, located in Louisville, Kentucky, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers undertook a major flood study in 1973. In order to predict flood conditions in 1990, the year when the watershed was expected to undergo complete urbanization, trends in the Clark Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (Clark IUH) parameters were utilized to determine the 1990 unit hydrograph and flood conditions. Based on the results from this flood study, this paper demonstrates the applicability of using projected Clark IUH parameters for modeling future runoff conditions in an urbanizing watershed. Values of these parameters, as estimated from maximum annual historical flood data, are used to develop regression models for predicting future Clark IUH parameters. Using the projected parameters, selected annual flood events since 1973 are simulated in order to verify the accuracy of these projections. Results show a close correspondence between the simulated and observed flood characteristics. Hence, the use of projected Clark IUH parameters is an appropriate procedure for modeling future runoff conditions in an urbanizing watershed.     

BASSETT CREEK WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: A synthetic hydrograph method was utilized in the development of a watershed model for a small urbanizing watershed. The model was applied to the watershed and the largest flood of record was accurately reproduced. Because the model would be utilized for design of flood control plans with complete urbanization, the method was also applied to an urbanized watershed and reproduced a measured event with good results. The method does not require extensive hydrologic data for its implementation, can be applied to watersheds in various stages of urbanization, and permits consideration of natural or potential floodwater storage.     

Hot,Salty Water: A Confluence of Issues in Managing Stormwater Runoff for Urban Streams

Research increasingly highlights cause and effect relationships between urbanization and stream conditions are complex and highly variable across physical and biological regions. Research also demonstrates stormwater runoff is a key causal agent in altering stream conditions in urban settings. More specifically, thermal pollution and high salt levels are two consequences of urbanization and subsequent runoff. This study describes a demonstration model populated with data from a high gradient headwaters stream. The model was designed to explain surface water‐groundwater dynamics related to salinity and thermal pollution. Modeled scenarios show long‐term additive impacts from salt application and suggest reducing flow rates, as stormwater management practices are typically designed to do, have the potential to greatly reduce salt concentrations and simultaneously reduce thermal pollution. This demonstration model offers planners and managers reason to be confident that stormwater management efforts can have positive impacts.     

AN IMPLICIT APPROACH TO PRICING AGRICULTURAL WATER TRANSFERS TO URBAN USES1

ABSTRACT: The increased agricultural efficiency of the American farmer has been a substantial impetus to this nation's rapid urbanization. In many western regions where total water supplies are limited, urbanization has required the transfer of heretofore agricultural water rights to the urban use. A major problem in such transfers has been the value or price of the water. A management level model of a typical urban water system was developed to optimize water supply, distribution, and wastewater treatment alternatives. The values of agricultural transfers were determined as the cost advantages of increasing allowable reuse levels of urban effluents which imply the use of a downstream right. This procedure is justified by the economic theory of alternative cost. Results for a test application to the Denver, Colorado area indicate values on the order of $1,000 per acre-foot of transferable water depending on effluent water quality restrictions and operational policies.     

STREAM DISCHARGE PREDICTION VIA A GRID BASED SOIL WATER ROUTING WITH PADDY FIELDS1

ABSTRACT: A grid based daily hydrologic model for a watershed with paddy fields was developed to predict the stream discharge. ASCII formatted elevation, soil, and land use data supported by the GRASS Geographic Information System are used to generate distributed results such as surface runoff and subsurface flow, soil water content, and evapotranspiration. The model uses a single flow path algorithm and simulates a water balance at each grid element. A linear reservoir assumption was used to predict subsurface runoff components. The model was applied to a 75.6 km² watershed located in the middle of South Korea, and observed stream flow hydrographs from 1995 and 1996 were compared to model predictions. The stream flow predictions of 1995 and 1996 generally agreed with the observed flow, resulting in a Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency R² of 0.60 and 0.62, respectively. The hydraulic conductivity for percolating water through the saturated layer affected baseflow generation. The levee height of the paddy influenced the time and magnitude of the surface runoff, depending on irrigation management. The model will be used for making low flow management decisions by evaluating the role of each land use to stream flow, especially in case of paddy decrease by gradual urbanization of a watershed.     

Assessment Tools for Urban Catchments: Developing Stressor Gradients1

Abstract: This is the first in a series of three articles designed to establish empirically defined biological indicators and thresholds for impairment for urbanized catchments, and to describe a process by which the biological condition of waterbodies in urbanized catchments can be applied. This article describes alternative gradients of urbanization for assessing and selecting a nationally applicable biological index (article 2 – Purcell et al., this issue ) and defining the potential of biological communities within a gradient of cumulative stressors (article 3 – Paul et al. this issue ). Gradients were designed to represent the most prominent mosaic of stressors found in urban settings. A primary urban gradient was assembled based on readily obtained information of urbanization to include three broad‐scale parameters: percent urban land use/land cover, population density, and road density. This gradient was used as the standard by which alternative urban gradients, which included fine‐scale instream chemical and hydrologic parameters, were assessed. Five alternative gradients were developed to provide numerous environmental management options based on availability of data from water program resources. The urban gradients were developed with the intent that they be applied throughout the country; therefore, data from three different regions of the United States (Mid‐Atlantic, Midwest, and Pacific Coast) were used to validate the urban gradient model. Our study showed that a relatively straightforward stressor gradient consisting of human population density, road density, and urban land use is useful in providing a framework for developing relevant biological indicators and evaluating the potential of biological communities as a basis for assessing attainment of designated aquatic life use.     

SIMULATION OF RUNOFF FROM URBAN WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT. .A mathematical model for urban watersheds is being developed in stages at the Utah Water Research Laboratory, Utah State University at Logan. In verifying the watershed as a unit, watershed coefficients are determined on the computer, and related to the urbanization characteristics. The second stage of verification consists of dividing the watershed into subzones, and determining the urban parameters within each subzone. Each subzone is then individually modeled, and outflow hydrographs are routed through succeeding downstream subzones to the gaging point. The model thus makes it possible to: (a) develop runoff models for subzone hydrographs within the urban watershed, and (b) account for spatial variations of storm and watershed characteristics. An attempt was also made to analytically model the outflow hydrograph based on storm and watershed characteristics.     

Predicting mass rapid transit noise levels on an elevated station

This study developed a noise prediction model for elevated mass rapid transit (MRT) platforms. Relevant physical and operational parameters (e.g. cruise speed, acceleration and deceleration rates for trains, building fa?ade setbacks and so on) were collected from the Bangkok mass transit system (BTS), the first elevated MRT system operated in Bangkok, Thailand. The equivalent continuous sound pressure levels (L(Aeq)) were collected from both sides of the MRT stations at the center of each platform. The relevant parameters were collected on both platforms and ground level, on both sides of MRT stations. These parameters were statistically tested to determine their correlation with MRT noise. The final model was built from highly correlated parameters using multiple regression analysis with a stepwise regression technique. Statistical evaluation showed a high degree of goodness-of-fit test for the model to the observed data. Therefore, it can be efficiently used for the projection of MRT noise in the affected areas.     

Trends of surface water quality of the Krishna River,India during the urbanization process

In the present study, Amaravati, the proposed city of India is considered to assess the impacts of urbanization on water quality of the Krishna River in the vicinity. Long-term surface water quality data of various parameters of Krishna River are obtained from Central Water Commission (CWC). Trends of various parameters are analyzed using a modified version of Mann-Kendall (M-K) test; bootstrapped M-K trend test with optional bias corrected pre-whitening and R programming are used affecting water quality prior to and at the commencement of urbanization. During the onset of urbanization, minimum BOD is decreased from 0.49 to 0.2 mg/L, while the maximum BOD is increased by 67.7%. Dissolved oxygen's (DO) minimum value is decreased by 29.33% while maximum DO value is decreased by 4.47% at the beginning of urbanization. During the process of urbanization, total coliform's minimum count is increased to 330 from 2 MPN/100 ml while the maximum count of total coliforms is increased to 16,000 from 2400 MPN/100 ml. Faecal coilform's minimum count is increased from 2 to 80 MPN/100 ml while maximum count is increased to 16,000 from 800 MPN/100 ml during urbanization. It is found that due to urbanization, pH, DO values exceed the allowable limit.     

PREDICTING BASE FLOW USING HYDROGEOLOGIC PARAMETERS1

ABSTRACT: A method is presented for predicting base flow using easily measured, or estimated, hydrogeologic parameters. A mathematical model based upon the theory of subsurface flow to parallel drains is applied to a small watershed in Oklahoma. An example of model application is presented for a five-year period of record from this small watershed. Three years of data are used to calibrate the model, and two years of data are used for model validation. Hydrographs of observed and predicted base flow are presented for the five-year period of record. We concluded from this limited application of the model, on a small watershed, that the modeling techniques discussed herein were valid and should be tested for longer time periods on a larger watershed to determine their general applicability.     

CALIBRATION OF A WATER-BALANCE MODEL FOR SMALL WATERSHEDS IN EASTERN OREGON1

ABSTRACT: The BURP water-balance model was calibrated for 13 small (0.46 to 7.00 mi²), forested watersheds in the Blue Mountains of eastern Oregon where snowmelt is the dominant source of runoff. BURP is the model name and is not an acronym. Six of the 16 parameters in BURP were calibrated. The subsurface recession coefficient and three subsurface water-storage parameters were most sensitive for simulating monthly flow. Calibrated subsurface recession coefficients ranged from 0.988 to 0.998. The subsurface-water storage parameters were calibrated at between 20 to 120 percent of their initial values obtained from a category III soil survey. That reconnaissance-level survey was apparently too broad to accurately reflect subsurface-water storage in small watersheds. Tests of model performance showed BURP is capable of producing accurate simulations of monthly flow for mountainous, snow-dominated watersheds with shallow (< 4 ft) soils when calibrated with 2 to 4 years of streamflow data. A regression of observed versus simulated monthly flows with data from all watersheds combined showed that BURP accounted for 85 percent of the variability in observed flows, which ranged from 0.01 to 20.8 inches, but underpredicted high flow months, with a slope of 1.15 that is significantly different from 1.0 (p = 0.05). Without prior calibration, subsurface-water storage parameters appeared to be the greatest source of potential error.     

内蒙古城镇化与生态环境协调发展分析

以内蒙古自治区为例,利用2000-2012年的统计数据,采用主成分分析法分别对城镇化与生态环境两个子系统的综合水平进行测度.在此基础上,构建了城镇化与生态环境的协调发展模型,对内蒙古自治区不同年份城镇化与生态环境的协调发展度进行了动态分析.研究结果表明,2000-2012年内蒙古城镇化综合发展水平呈逐年上升趋势,生态环境综合水平呈波动增长的发展趋势,城镇化与生态环境协调发展演化周期经历了失调衰退、基本协调发展、协调发展3个阶段.     

TECIIMQUES FOR DETECTING HYDROLOGIC CHANGE IN HIGH RESOURCE STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: A “synthetic paired basin” technique that combines hydrologic monitoring and watershed modeling proves to be a useful tool in detecting hydrologic change in creeks draining basins undergoing urbanization. In this approach, measured stream flow following subbasin treatment (a period of urbanization) is compared with flow from a control subbasin over the same time period. The control subbasin is the pretreatment subbasin itself as represented by a well‐calibrated hydrologic model that is input with post‐treatment meteorological data. The technique is illustrated for stream monitoring sites at the outlets of two high‐resource sub‐basins in the Bear Creek basin of King County, Washington. Application of this technique holds promise to provide earlier warning of cumulative, human impacts on aquatic resources and to better inform adaptive watershed management for resource protection.     

基于宜居视角的居住城市化水平测度——以大连市为例

从宜居的视角出发,结合大连市发展现状建立居住城市化水平测度指标体系,利用模糊层次分析法（AHP）确定指标权重,计算居住城市化水平测度综合指数。通过整理样本社区测度综合指数的数据,建立指标数据库,利用地理信息系统软件MapInfo 10进行格网赋值,构建基于空间插值法的居住城市化水平测度模型,绘制大连居住城市化水平测度专题图,直观展现大连市居住城市化水平发展的时空变化特征。结果表明,1995—2010年大连市居住城市化发展呈现出由整体发展水平低、内部差异小到发展速度提高、地域发展不均衡,再到发展速度减慢,日趋平衡,最后实现发展速度再次提高、均衡发展、差异减小的阶段特征。     

Evaluating the impact of uncertainty and variability on the value chain optimization of a forest biomass power plant using Monte Carlo Simulation

Mathematical programming models have been used to optimize the design and management of forest bioenergy supply chains. A deterministic mathematical model is beneficial for making optimum decisions; however, its applicability to real-world problems may be limited because it does not capture all the complexities, including uncertainties in the parameters, in the supply chain. In this paper, a combination of Monte Carlo Simulation and optimization model is used to evaluate the impact of uncertainty in biomass quality, availability and cost, and electricity prices on the supply chain of a forest biomass power plant. The optimization model is a deterministic mixed integer non-linear model with monthly time steps over a 1-year planning horizon. Variability in biomass quality, i.e. moisture content (MC) and higher heating value (HHV), based on the historical data of a real case study is studied in detail and fitted probability distributions are used in the model, while for electricity prices different scenarios are considered. The results show that the impact of variability in the MC on profit is higher than that of uncertainty in HHV. It is observed that the annual profit ranges between $13.3 million and $17.9 million in the presence of all possible uncertainties while its average is $15.5 million. Uncertainty in biomass availability and cost and electricity price results in the risks of having annual profit of less than $14 million and low monthly storage levels.     

GENERATION OF DAILY PRECIPITATION OVER AN AREA1

ABSTRACT: A model was developed of the periodic-stochastic structure of daily precipitation over an area. The model is based ona multivariate normal distribution. The square roots of daily precipitation at a point were found to approximate a sample from a univariate normal distribution that had been truncated at zero. The zero daily precipitation amounts were considered negative amounts of unknown quantity. The multivariate normal distribution was used to describe the variation of daily precipitation over an area. The periodic fluctuations of the model parameters were described with Fourier series. The model was tested using data from two areas of different precipitation characteristics. Data generated with the model contained many of the statistical characteristics observed in the historical data.     

Scale Effects on Spatially Varying Relationships Between Urban Landscape Patterns and Water Quality

Scientific interpretation of the relationships between urban landscape patterns and water quality is important for sustainable urban planning and watershed environmental protection. This study applied the ordinary least squares regression model and the geographically weighted regression model to examine the spatially varying relationships between 12 explanatory variables (including three topographical factors, four land use parameters, and five landscape metrics) and 15 water quality indicators in watersheds of Yundang Lake, Maluan Bay, and Xinglin Bay with varying levels of urbanization in Xiamen City, China. A local and global investigation was carried out at the watershed-level, with 50 and 200 m riparian buffer scales. This study found that topographical features and landscape metrics are the dominant factors of water quality, while land uses are too weak to be considered as a strong influential factor on water quality. Such statistical results may be related with the characteristics of land use compositions in our study area. Water quality variations in the 50 m buffer were dominated by topographical variables. The impact of landscape metrics on water quality gradually strengthen with expanding buffer zones. The strongest relationships are obtained in entire watersheds, rather than in 50 and 200 m buffer zones. Spatially varying relationships and effective buffer zones were verified in this study. Spatially varying relationships between explanatory variables and water quality parameters are more diversified and complex in less urbanized areas than in highly urbanized areas. This study hypothesizes that all these varying relationships may be attributed to the heterogeneity of landscape patterns in different urban regions. Adjustment of landscape patterns in an entire watershed should be the key measure to successfully improving urban lake water quality.