Can California coastal managers plan for sea-level rise in a cost-effective way?

This paper examines five representative sites on the California coast to illustrate a cost-effective methodology using tools and data that local decision makers can apply to analyse the economics of sea level rise (SLR) adaptation. We estimate the costs/benefits of selected responses (e.g. no action, nourishment, seawalls) to future flooding and erosion risks exacerbated by SLR. We estimate the economic value of changes to public/private property, recreational and habitat value, and beach related spending/tax revenues. Our findings indicate that the costs of SLR are significant but uneven across communities, and there is no single best strategy for adaptation. For example, Los Angeles's Venice Beach could lose $450 million in tourism revenue by 2100 with a 1.4 m SLR scenario while San Francisco's Ocean Beach would lose $80 million, but the impacts to structures could total nearly $560 million at Ocean Beach compared to $50 million at Venice Beach.     

Evaluating the PM damage cost due to urban air pollution and vehicle emissions in Seoul, Korea

This study evaluated the prospective damage costs of PM(2.5) inhalation. We performed a health risk assessment based on an exposure-response function to estimate the annual population risk in the Seoul metropolitan city, Korea. Also, we estimated a willingness-to-pay (WTP) amount for reducing the mortality rate in order to evaluate a statistical life value. We combined the annual population risk and the value-of-statistical-life to calculate the damage cost estimate. In the health risk assessment, we applied the PM(2.5) relative risk to evaluate the annual population risk. We targeted an exposure population of 5,401,369 persons who were over the age of 30. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation for uncertainty analysis, we estimated that the population risk of PM(2.5) inhalation during a year in Seoul is 2181 premature deaths for acute exposure and 18,510 premature deaths for chronic exposure. The monthly average WTP for 5/1000 mortality reduction over ten years is $20.20 USD (95% C.I: $16.60-24.50) and the implied value-of-statistical-life (VSL) is $485,000 USD (95% C.I: $398,000-588,000). The damage cost estimate due to risk from PM(2.5) inhalation in Seoul is about $1057 million USD per year for acute exposure, and $8972 million USD per year for chronic exposure. It is important to note that this cost estimate does not reflect all health damage cost estimates in this urban area. This recommendation is a model for evaluating a mortality risk reduction and as such we must re-evaluate an integrated application of morbidity risk.     

Assessing the economic impact of invasive species: the case of yellow starthistle (Centaurea solsitialis L.) in the rangelands of Idaho, USA

Yellow starthistle (Centaurea solsitialis L.) is an invasive weed that creates problems for the management of Idaho's rangelands. A bioeconomic approach combined with an input-output economic model is used to estimate direct and secondary economic costs of the weed in relation to its interference with agricultural and non-agricultural benefits that rangelands provide. Direct economic costs of the infestations were estimated to be of 8.2 million '05 dollars per year, and secondary costs of 4.5 million '05 dollars per year, for a total of 12.7 million '05 dollars; agricultural related economic impacts accounted for 79% of this total cost, and non-agricultural for 21%.     

Estimating Current and Future Groundwater Resources of the Maldives

The water resources of the atolls of the Republic of Maldives are under continual threat from climatic and anthropogenic stresses, including land surface pollution, increasing population, drought, and sea‐level rise (SLR). These threats are particularly acute for groundwater resources due to the small land surface area and low elevation of each island. In this study, the groundwater resources, in terms of freshwater lens thickness, total volume of fresh groundwater, and safe yield are estimated for the 52 most populous islands of the Maldives for current conditions and for the year 2030, with the latter accounting for projected SLR and associated shoreline recession. An algebraic model, designed in previous studies to estimate the lens thickness of atoll islands, is expanded in this study to also estimate volume of groundwater. Results indicate that average current lens thickness, groundwater volume, and per capita safe yield are approximately 4.6 m, 1,300 million liters, and 300 l/day, and that these values will decrease by approximately 10, 11, and 34%, respectively, by the year 2030. Based on results, it is demonstrated that groundwater, in terms of quantity, is a viable source of water for the islands of the Maldives both now and in coming decades, particularly for islands with large surface area and low population. Study results can provide water resource managers and government officials with valuable data for consideration in water security measures.     

Economic use value of the Belize marine ecosystem: Potential risks and benefits from offshore oil exploration

The announcement of plans for exploratory oil drilling at a number of offshore sites in Belize raised concerns about the risks associated with drilling, particularly given the socio‐economic importance of the marine ecosystem. The current economic value of fisheries and marine ecotourism is estimated, along with the potential revenue from offshore oil and potential economic losses stemming from oil pollution, under various assumptions on risk and uncertainty. Marine fisheries and ecotourism are estimated to generate around US$ 183 million per year. Single‐year estimated maximum revenue is higher for oil extraction initially but quickly declines; during a 50 year (two generation) period, total discounted benefits from marine fisheries and ecotourism are estimated at US$ 5.1 billion, compared to US$ 3.2 billion from offshore oil revenue. Following a hypothetical oil spill, discounted losses in marine fisheries and ecotourism due to perception and ecological impacts are estimated at US$ 912 million, with clean‐up costs and capital losses of US$ 6.1‐10.4 billion. Considering the short extraction life of oil resources compared to fisheries and ecotourism, the difference in benefits increases substantially in favour of the latter with a longer time horizon. A recent public referendum resulted in a 98% vote against oil exploration and a subsequent annulment of oil concessions pending environmental impact assessments.     

Cost-benefit analysis of an accelerated vehicle-retirement programme

High taxes on new cars in Israel provide an incentive for car owners to defer the purchase of new vehicles. The result is a vehicle fleet of older, more polluting vehicles, with air pollution costs estimated at up to $530 million annually. The purpose of this paper is to conduct a cost benefit analysis (CBA) of an accelerated vehicle-retirement (AVR) programme. The analysis considers the private car fleet as well as trucks and buses. The study develops an economic model to identify the optimal payment level that will maximise the net benefit of the programme, and then apply the model to three different vehicle categories. It finds that an AVR programme for private cars may indeed yield significant net benefits, while a similar programme for trucks and buses fails to meet the cost-benefit test. For private cars, the study finds that even according to a conservative estimate, the programme will result in the voluntary retirement of approximately 98,000 private cars, with a present value net benefit of more than $50 million. This is equal to a 17% reduction in total annual private car air pollution costs for the five-year time span of the proposed programme.     

A SYSTEMS STUDY OF FUTURE GROUNDWATER DEVELOPMENT COSTS IN THE CHICAGO REGION1

The cost of developing groundwater resources in northeastern Illinois from 198cL2020 is estimated for the purpose of providing a basis for comparing alternative sources. Demands for each township in the study area are estimated at 10-year increments and are satisfied, where the supply is sufficient, in such a way as to minimize the cost subject to constraints on supply. Sources of water are two shallow aquifers with known potential yields and a series of deep aquifers treated as a single unit and modeled on a digital computer. For each township the costs of wells, pumps, power and rehabilitation is estimated for each aquifer on a per million gallons of water per day basis. In addition the cost of groundwater treatment necessary to raise the quality to that of treated Lake Michigan water is considered. Raw water costs are found to vary from 2 to 14 cents per 1000 gallons depending upon the depth to the deep aquifer water. Treated water costs vary from 22 to 53 cents per 1000 gallons, the lower costs applying to the largest users because of the economy of scale. It is found that with proper distribution of pumpage there is sufficient water in storage in the deep aquifers to meet groundwater demands through 2020.     

Predicting the economic costs and property value losses attributed to sudden oak death damage in California (2010-2020)

Phytophthora ramorum, cause of sudden oak death, is a quarantined, non-native, invasive forest pathogen resulting in substantial mortality in coastal live oak (Quercus agrifolia) and several other related tree species on the Pacific Coast of the United States. We estimate the discounted cost of oak treatment, removal, and replacement on developed land in California communities using simulations of P. ramorum spread and infection risk over the next decade (2010-2020). An estimated 734 thousand oak trees occur on developed land in communities in the analysis area. The simulations predict an expanding sudden oak death (SOD) infestation that will likely encompass most of northwestern California and warrant treatment, removal, and replacement of more than 10 thousand oak trees with discounted cost of $7.5 million. In addition, we estimate the discounted property losses to single family homes of $135 million. Expanding the land base to include developed land outside as well as inside communities doubles the estimates of the number of oak trees killed and the associated costs and losses. The predicted costs and property value losses are substantial, but many of the damages in urban areas (e.g. potential losses from increased fire and safety risks of the dead trees and the loss of ecosystem service values) are not included.     

The Worldwide Availability of Fluorspar

This paper reviews a recent assessment of fluorspar reserves and resources for 13 market economy countries and the People's Republic of China, and how they relate to the overall availability of fluorspar on the world market. Current world production, consumption and world trade issues are discussed.
Nearly 5 million tonnes of fluorspar were produced in 1985, and approximately 60% of that enters the world export market. In recent years world trade has started to shift away from the acid, metallurgical and ceramic grades of fluorspar, as ore-producing countries look towards higher-value downstream products.
Total potentially recoverable fluorspar from 52 major producing mines and deposits is estimated at nearly 95 million tonnes (as of January 1985). The Republic of South Africa accounts for 31% of the reserves, with Mexico and the People's Republic of China each contributing 18%.
The average total cost and availability of fluorspar is evaluated. Approximately 75% of acid-grade fluorspar evaluated is potentially available at or below a 1985 constant-dollar cost of US$110 tonne⁻¹. Nearly 94% of metallurgical grades are potentially available at costs of US$75 tonne⁻¹ and below, and virtually all of the ceramic grades could be produced at costs below the 1985 reported market price of US$103 tonne⁻¹.     

The availability of primary nickel from the market economy countries

The US Bureau of Mines has determined the potential availability of nickel from 36 deposits or districts in 16 market economy countries (MECs). More than 95% of production in MECs was analysed. The study indicates the quantity of nickel available in resources and potential annual production at net production costs and on a total cost basis with a 0% and a 10% discounted cash flow rate of return (DCFROR). The properties included in this study contain approximately 33 million tonnes of recoverable nickel. About 26 million tonnes of nickel is potentially recoverable from nickel laterite deposits, of which 4.5 million tonnes can be produced at $2.50/lb or less with a 0% DCFROR. Approximately 7 million tonnes of nickel is potentially recoverable from nickel sulphide deposits of which about 6.3 million tonnes could be produced at $2.50/lb or less at a 0% DCFROR. Sensitivity studies indicate that the total cost of producing nickel from laterite deposits is most sensitive to increases in energy costs, and that the total costs of producing nickel from sulphide deposits is most sensitive to increases in labour costs and by changes in byproduct revenues.     

Costs and benefits of urban erosion and sediment control: The North Carolina experience

The EPA’s new nonpoint source pollution control requirements will soon institutionalize urban erosion and sediment pollution control practices nationwide. The public and private sector costs and social benefits associated with North Carolina’s program (one of the strongest programs in the country in terms of implementation authority, staffing levels, and comprehensiveness of coverage) are examined to provide general policy guidance on questions relating to the likely burden the new best management practices will have on the development industry, the likely costs and benefits of such a program, and the feasibility of running a program on a cost recovery basis. We found that urban erosion and sediment control requirements were not particularly burdensome to the development industry (adding about 4% on average to development costs). Public-sector program costs ranged between $2.4 and $4.8 million in fiscal year 1989. Our contingent valuation survey suggests that urban households in North Carolina are willing to pay somewhere between $7.1 and $14.2 million a year to maintain current levels of sediment pollution control. Our benefit-cost analysis suggests that the overall ratio is likely to be positive, although a definitive figure is elusive. Lastly, we found that several North Carolina localities have cost recovery fee systems that are at least partially self-financing. This article is based on research by the authors for the North Carolina Department of Environment, Health and Natural Resources (DEHNR). The views are those of the research team and do not necessarily reflect the position of DEHNR.     

Environmental and economic assessment of combined biostabilization and landfill for municipal solid waste

Biostabilization can remove considerable amounts of moisture and degradable organic materials from municipal solid waste (MSW), and can therefore be an effective form of pretreatment prior to landfill. The environmental and economic impacts of two combined processes, active stage biostabilization + sanitary landfill (AL), and active and curing stage biostabilization + sanitary landfill (ACL), were compared with sanitary landfill (SL) for MSW with high moisture content. The results indicated that land requirement, leachate generation, and CH(4) emission in the ACL process decreased by 68.6%, 89.1%, and 87.6%, respectively, and the total cost was reduced by 24.1%, compared with SL. This implies that a combined biostabilization and landfill process can be an environmentally friendly and economically feasible alternative to landfill of raw MSW with high moisture content. Sensitivity analysis revealed that treatment capacity and construction costs of biostabilization and the oxidation factor of CH(4) significantly influenced the costs and benefits of the AL and ACL process at an extremely low land price. When the land price was greater than 100 USD m(-2), it became the dominating factor in determining the cost of treatment and disposal, and the total costs of ACL were reduced to less than 40% of those of SL.     

River Basin Export Reduction Optimization Support Tool; a tool to screen options for reducing nutrient loads while minimizing cost

Excess loading of nitrogen and phosphorus to river networks causes environmental harm, but reducing loads from large river basins is difficult and expensive. We developed a new tool, the River Basin Export Reduction Optimization Support Tool (RBEROST) to identify the least-cost combinations of management practices that will reduce nutrient loading to target levels in downstream and mid-network waterbodies. We demonstrate the utility of the tool in a case study in the Upper Connecticut River Basin in New England, USA. The total project cost of optimized lowest-cost plans ranged from $18.0 million to $41.0 million per year over 15 years depending on user specifications. Plans include both point source and non-point source management practices, and most costs are associated with urban stormwater practices. Adding a 2% margin of safety to loading targets improved the estimated probability of success from 37.5% to 99%. The large spatial scale of RBEROST, and the consideration of both point and non-point source contributions of nutrients, make it well suited as an initial screening tool in watershed planning.     

Using a choice experiment to measure the environmental costs of air pollution impacts in Seoul

Air pollution, a by-product of economic growth, has been incurring extensive environmental costs in Seoul, Korea. Unfortunately, air pollution impacts are not treated as a commercial item, and thus it is difficult to measure the environmental costs arising from air pollution. There is an imminent need to find a way to measure air pollution impacts so that appropriate actions can be taken to control air pollution. Therefore, this study attempts to apply a choice experiment to quantifying the environmental costs of four air pollution impacts (mortality, morbidity, soiling damage, and poor visibility), using a specific case study of Seoul. We consider the trade-offs between price and attributes of air pollution impacts for selecting a preferred alternative and derive the marginal willingness to pay (WTP) estimate for each attribute. According to the results, the households' monthly WTP for a 10% reduction in the concentrations of major pollutants in Seoul was found to be approximately 5494 Korean won (USD 4.6) and the total annual WTP for the entire population of Seoul was about 203.4 billion Korean won (USD 169.5 million). This study is expected to provide policy-makers with useful information for evaluating and planning environmental policies relating specifically to air pollution.     

The conservation benefits of cost-effective land acquisition: A case study in Maryland

Economic theory asserts that to achieve maximum conservation benefits land acquisition needs to be cost effective. Yet the most common planning technique used by land conservation organizations is ‘benefit-targeting’ that focuses only on acquiring parcels with the highest benefits and ignores costs. Unlike most of the literature which focuses on covering problems, this research applies optimization techniques to achieve maximum aggregate conservation benefits for an ongoing land acquisition effort in the Catoctin Mountain Region in central Maryland. For this case study, optimization yields additional conservation benefits worth an estimated $3.1–$3.9 million or achieves the same level of conservation benefits but at a cost savings ranging from $0.9 to $3.5 million, depending on the initial budget size. Finally, the highest efficiencies are achieved in low budget scenarios, like those most prevalent in conservation efforts.     

Potential Impacts and Management Implications of Climate Change on Tampa Bay Estuary Critical Coastal Habitats

The Tampa Bay estuary is a unique and valued ecosystem that currently thrives between subtropical and temperate climates along Florida’s west-central coast. The watershed is considered urbanized (42 % lands developed); however, a suite of critical coastal habitats still persists. Current management efforts are focused toward restoring the historic balance of these habitat types to a benchmark 1950s period. We have modeled the anticipated changes to a suite of habitats within the Tampa Bay estuary using the sea level affecting marshes model under various sea level rise (SLR) scenarios. Modeled changes to the distribution and coverage of mangrove habitats within the estuary are expected to dominate the overall proportions of future critical coastal habitats. Modeled losses in salt marsh, salt barren, and coastal freshwater wetlands by 2100 will significantly affect the progress achieved in “Restoring the Balance” of these habitat types over recent periods. Future land management and acquisition priorities within the Tampa Bay estuary should consider the impending effects of both continued urbanization within the watershed and climate change. This requires the recognition that: (1) the Tampa Bay estuary is trending towards a mangrove-dominated system; (2) the current management paradigm of “Restoring the Balance” may no longer provide realistic, attainable goals; (3) restoration that creates habitat mosaics will prove more resilient in the future; and (4) establishing subtidal and upslope “refugia” may be a future strategy in this urbanized estuary to allow sensitive habitat types (e.g., seagrass and salt barren) to persist under anticipated climate change and SLR impacts.     

The Worldwide Availability of Gold

This paper summarizes Bureau of Mines research relating to the state of the world gold industry. The authors discuss the world gold industry structure, demonstrated gold resources, current production, and the long-term cost and availability of potential future gold production.
The long-term cost and availability of primary gold production from 111 significant producing mines and developing deposits in 13 market economy countries (MECs) is evaluated. Total recoverable gold available (as of January 1984) from the evaluated mines and deposits is estimated at 819 million troy ounces. The Republic of South Africa is estimated to account for 87% of total recoverable gold. The USA and Canada account for 4% and 4.5% of the total, respectively. Eighty-three per cent of total recoverable gold is available at a constant 1984 break-even price of $400 per ounce, and 70% is available at $300 per ounce. South Africa accounts for 90% of the gold available at $400 per ounce or less. Gold resources in the Soviet Union and China are discussed but not evaluated for costs of production. Some conclusions of the analyses are that South Africa should remain the largest world producer until the year 2000 and annual MEC output in the year 2000 should not be significantly different from current output, given constant 1984 gold prices of more than $300 per ounce.     

Cost/Benefit Considerations for Recent Saltcedar Control,Middle Pecos River,New Mexico

Major benefits were weighed against major costs associated with recent saltcedar control efforts along the Middle Pecos River, New Mexico. The area of study was restricted to both sides of the channel and excluded tributaries along the 370 km between Sumner and Brantley dams. Direct costs (helicopter spraying, dead tree removal, and revegetation) within the study area were estimated to be $2.2 million but possibly rising to $6.4 million with the adoption of an aggressive revegetation program. Indirect costs associated with increased potential for erosion and reservoir sedimentation would raise the costs due to increased evaporation from more extensive shallows in the Pecos River as it enters Brantley Reservoir. Actions such as dredging are unlikely given the conservative amount of sediment calculated (about 1% of the reservoir pool). The potential for water salvage was identified as the only tangible benefit likely to be realized under the current control strategy. Estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) using Landsat TM data allowed estimation of potential water salvage as the difference in ET before and after treatment, an amount totaling 7.41 million m³ (6010 acre-ft) per year. Previous saltcedar control efforts of roughly the same magnitude found that salvaged ET recharged groundwater and no additional flows were realized within the river. Thus, the value of this recharge is probably less than the lowest value quoted for actual in-channel flow, and estimated to be < $63,000 per year. Though couched in terms of costs and benefits, this paper is focused on what can be considered the key trade-off under a complete eradication strategy: water salvage vs. erosion and sedimentation. It differs from previous efforts by focusing on evaluating the impacts of actual control efforts within a specific system. Total costs (direct plus potential indirect) far outweighed benefits in this simple comparison and are expected to be ongoing. Problems induced by saltcedar control may permanently reduce reservoir capacity and increase reservoir evaporation rates, which could further deplete supplies on this water short system. These potential negative consequences highlight that such costs and benefits need to be considered before initiating extensive saltcedar control programs on river systems of the western United States.     

COST COMPARISON BETWEEN CESSPOOL AND SANITARY SEWERAGE SYSTEMS IN SAUDI URBAN AREAS1

ABSTRACT: Extensive use is made of on-site wastewater disposal systems of cesspools due to the absence of a sanitary sewerage system in Saudi urban areas. This system has caused the groundwater table to rise to a public nuisance level. A health risk has also evolved. There are several infrastructural, environmental, and social impacts from this, resulting in great financial losses. Examples are: surface water flooding, damage to foundations of buildings and asphalt street pavements, flooded basements and added construction costs required for excavation, dewatering, insulation materials, and special cements. Most of these costs are indirectly being paid by the private and public sectors. This study compares the estimated costs of damage and losses with the estimated costs of building, operating, and maintaining sanitary sewerage systems in the cesspool-served areas. The annual cost of the cesspool system, depending on the severity of the adverse impacts, ranges from 2.2 to 4.4 times the annual cost of the sanitary sewerage system. Remedies for these impacts are very expensive, and delays in the implementation of the sanitary sewerage facility will make the damage recovery more expensive, and in some cases, impossible. Thus, it is recommended that highest priority to be given to the sanitary sewerage systems in Saudi urban areas.     

Economic assessment of the health effects related to particulate matter pollution in 111 Chinese cities by using economic burden of disease analysis

With China's rapid economic development, environmental problems have become more and more serious. Particulate air pollution is terrible in cities with large and dense population. It may lead to adverse health effects and economic costs. In this study, we calculated the health effects of pollution caused by particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less than 10mum (PM(10)) in 111 Chinese cities in 2004 according to statistical data and epidemiological exposure-response functions. Using economic burden of disease analysis, an economic assessment of these health risks was also presented. In contrast to many previous studies that have examined individual cities, this study covered most large and medium-sized cities in China, which accounted for more than 70% gross domestic product (GDP) of China in 2004. The total economic cost caused by PM(10) pollution was estimated as approximately US$ 29,178.7 million. Mega cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin contribute relatively more to the total costs. The results will help policy makers in formulating more effective countermeasures and increasing public awareness to enhance environmental protection.