Climate variability and changes in the major cities of Bangladesh: observations,possible impacts and adaptation

High population density, inadequate infrastructure and low adaptive capacity have made the urban population of Bangladesh highly vulnerable to climate change. Trends in climate and climate-related extreme events in five major cities have been analyzed in this paper to decipher the variability and ongoing changes in urban Bangladesh. An analysis of 55 years (1958–2012) of daily rainfall and temperature data using nonparametric statistical methods shows a significant increase in annual and seasonal mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures in all five cities. A significant increase in climate-related extreme events, such as heavy rainfall events (>20 mm), hot days (>32 °C) and hot nights (>25 °C), is also observed. Climate model results suggest that these trends will continue through the twenty-first century. Vulnerability of urban livelihoods and physical structures to climate change is estimated by considering certainty and timing of impacts. It has been predicted that public health and urban infrastructures, viz. water and power supply, would be the imminent affected sectors in the urban areas of Bangladesh. Adaptation measures that can be adopted to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change are also discussed.     

９６１~２０１０年中国大陆地面气候要素变化特征分析

利用1961~2010年全国大陆地面468个气象台站的气温、降水和日照时数等资料，采用Jones等提出的计算区域平均气候时间序列的方法对全国数据进行加权平均处理，采用线性趋势、反距离加权插值、Morlet小波分析、Mann Kendall法，分析了我国大陆地面近50 a来各气候要素的变化特征。研究表明：年平均气温、年平均最低气温、年平均最高气温、年极端最低气温、年极端最高气温均呈显著上升趋势，年平均温度差、年极端温度差、年平均日照时数均呈显著减少趋势；年平均气温、年平均降水、年平均最低气温、年平均最高气温、年极端最低气温、年极端最高气温、年平均温度差、年极端温度差、年平均日照时数分别存在14、26、14、14、25、16、26、25和25 a左右的变化主周期；在005的置信度水平下，年平均最高气温、年极端最低气温、年极端最高气温、年极端温度差、年平均降水和年平均日照时数均发生突变，其分别在1996、1981、1997、1975、1983和1982年发生突变，其余要素均未发生突变。分析还发现，各气候要素的变化主周期分别存在一定的相似性，突变时间也存在一定联系     

Enduring Extremes? Polar Vortex,Drought, and Climate Change Beliefs

Some extreme weather events may be more likely to affect climate change beliefs than others, in part because schema individuals possess for different events could vary in encouraging such links. Using a representative sample of U.S. adults and geocoded National Weather Service data, we examine how a range of extreme weather event categories relate to climate change beliefs, and the degree to which individuals’ self-reported experiences are shaped by their political views across event types. For tornado, hurricane, and flood events, we find no link with beliefs. For polar vortex and drought events, we find that although self-reported experience is linked with climate beliefs, reporting of these experiences is influenced by political identity and partisan news exposure. These findings underscore a limited role for extreme weather experiences in climate beliefs, and show that events more open to interpretation, such as droughts and polar vortex disturbances, are most likely to be seen through a partisan lens.     

长江三峡库区和上游气候变化特点及其影响

利用1961～2010年逐日气温、降水等气象观测资料分析三峡库区和长江流域等地区气象要素的气候长期变化趋势,并利用监测资料和数值模拟试验初步分析了水库蓄水后对三峡库区附近局地的天气气候的可能影响。结果表明:近50 a来三峡库区平均气温呈现上升趋势,降水量具有年代际变化特征,21世纪以来库区降水转为少雨期;气温和降水的变化都与长江上游乃至整个长江流域的变化趋势基本一致。水库蓄水后对库区附近气温产生调节作用,夏季降温和冬季增温效应明显;蓄水后库区年降水量没有明显变化。总体上,三峡水库对附近气候影响范围一般不超过20 km     

Assessing climate change adaptation strategies—the case of drought and heat wave in the French nuclear sector

Regional Environmental Change - Nuclear energy is a very important component of overall power supply in France. If the effects of future extreme weather events or climate shifts are not addressed,...     

Integrated hydro- and wind power generation: a game changer towards environmental flow in the Sub-middle and Lower São Francisco River Basin?

Many renewable resources for the generation of electricity, such as hydropower and wind power, are dependent on climatic factors. Reservoirs have been created to overcome the stochastic nature of river flows and to make water supply more reliable. However, reservoirs are affecting the ecological status of river ecosystems, e.g., by modifying the flow regime, triggering discussions regarding the discharge of reservoirs. In Brazil’s northeast region, the installed capacity for wind power generation has increased substantially in recent years. Setting up a modeling system for simulating wind power and hydropower generation in this study, it is analyzed whether wind power generation, peaking in the dry season, can help to achieve a more environmentally oriented flow regime in the Sub-middle and Lower São Francisco River Basin. Simulated higher discharges from reservoirs during the rainy season and lower discharges during the dry season, representing a more natural flow regime, will reduce hydropower generation in the dry season. Under recent conditions, the resulting gap in electricity generation can only be partially covered by wind power. A large share needs to be generated by thermal power plants or be imported from other regions in Brazil. The planned future increase in installed wind power capacity can change this picture; the demand for electricity generated by thermal power plants and imported will decrease. Adopting an integrated approach for hydropower and wind power generation, the flow regime in the Sub-middle and Lower São Francisco River Basin can be modified to improve the ecological status of the river system.     

Climate change,extreme events and increased risk of salmonellosis in Maryland,USA: Evidence for coastal vulnerability

BackgroundSalmonella is a leading cause of acute gastroenteritis worldwide. Patterns of salmonellosis have been linked to weather events. However, there is a dearth of data regarding the association between extreme events and risk of salmonellosis, and how this risk may disproportionately impact coastal communities.MethodsWe obtained Salmonella case data from the Maryland Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (2002–2012), and weather data from the National Climatic Data Center (1960–2012). We developed exposure metrics related to extreme temperature and precipitation events using a 30 year baseline (1960–1989) and linked them with county-level salmonellosis data. Data were analyzed using negative binomial Generalized Estimating Equations.ResultsWe observed a 4.1% increase in salmonellosis risk associated with a 1 unit increase in extreme temperature events (incidence rate ratio (IRR):1.041; 95% confidence interval (CI):1.013–1.069). This increase in risk was more pronounced in coastal versus non-coastal areas (5.1% vs 1.5%). Likewise, we observed a 5.6% increase in salmonellosis risk (IRR:1.056; CI:1.035–1.078) associated with a 1 unit increase in extreme precipitation events, with the impact disproportionately felt in coastal areas (7.1% vs 3.6%).ConclusionsTo our knowledge, this is the first empirical evidence showing that extreme temperature/precipitation events—that are expected to be more frequent and intense in coming decades—are disproportionately impacting coastal communities with regard to salmonellosis. Adaptation strategies need to account for this differential burden, particularly in light of ever increasing coastal populations.     

中国水资源管理适应气候变化的研究综述

以全球变暖为特征的气候变化已成为当今科学界、各国政府和社会公众普遍关注的最重要议题之一。气候变化对水资源管理的影响是具有重要学术价值的新兴研究方向,目前的重点研究领域主要包括:气候变化背景下水资源综合管理方式与集成研究,气候变化下水资源适应性管理机制,中国面临的水资源均衡性管理,公众参与水资源适应性管理的政策制定,对减缓措施与水资源可持续发展的认识。主要的研究方法包括:适应气候变化的定性分析方法(多尺度适应综合分析方法)、成本效益分析方法等。适应性管理是目前应对气候变化伴随的不确定性问题的有效策略,未来应在分析中国各流域水资源不确定性问题的基础上,建立气候变化情景下适应气候变化的水资源适应性管理体制机制。     

Modeling thermoelectric power generation in view of climate change

In this study we investigate how thermal power plants with once-through cooling could be affected by future climate change impacts on river water temperatures and stream flow. We introduce a model of a steam turbine power plant with once-through cooling at a river site and simulate how its production could be constrained in scenarios ranging from a one degree to a five degree increase of river temperature and a 10–50% decrease of stream flow. We apply the model to simulate a large nuclear power plant in Central Europe. We calculate annual average load reductions, which can be up to 11.8%, assuming unchanged stream flow, which leads to average annual income losses of up to 80 million €. Considering simultaneous changes in stream flow will exacerbate the problem and may increase average annual costs to 111 million € in a worst-case scenario. The model demonstrates that power generation could be severely constrained by typical climate impacts, such as increasing river temperatures and decreasing stream flow.     

The viticultural system and climate change: coping with long-term trends in temperature and rainfall in Roussillon,France

Mediterranean viticulture could suffer from hotter and drier growing seasons over the coming decades. The present article focuses on the wine-producing area Côtes-du-Roussillon-Villages near Perpignan, in southern France. We used observational daily data (1925–2010) from Perpignan weather station and daily outputs (2001–2060) of the regional climate model ARPEGE-RETIC-V4 from Météo-France with scenarios A2, A1B and B1, to assess the exposure of the regional wine system to changes in temperature and precipitation, both in the recent past and the coming decades (1925–2060). Temperatures during the growing season and summer temperature extremes have been increasing continuously since the mid-1980s and are projected to increase faster from the mid-2040s. Precipitation is highly variable and very low in summer, and projections suggest greater uncertainty, and more extreme drought events could be expected. The analysis of climate data was complemented by thirty-two in-depth interviews with local actors of the wine industry to assess the impacts of climate change on their activities and potential adaptive options. Producers reported negative impacts of recent changes in climate in conjunction with a difficult economic situation. Analyses of historical, social and economic backgrounds are important to fully conceptualize the nature and extent of climate change risks in the region. This case study provides important insights into the roles of non-climatic factors in the generation of vulnerability for Mediterranean agricultural systems facing rapid climate change.     

鄱阳湖生态经济区近60年极端温度事件变化特征研究

利用环鄱阳湖生态经济区6站逐日气象数据,建立了该区1952~2011年近60 a极端温度事件演化序列。研究表明：（1） 环鄱阳湖生态经济区极端高、低温事件线性趋势分别为04、-27 d/10 a;冷、热日持续指数线性趋势分别为-04、-24 d/10 a;（2）近60 a间,环鄱阳湖生态经济区内极端温度事件表现出两个明显的高频数（不稳定阶段）和低频数（稳定阶段）。其中极端高温事件和热日持续指数两个阶段分别为：1952~1979年和1980 ~2002年;极端低温事件和冷日持续指数两个阶段分别为：1952~1985年和1986~2007年;（3）近60 a以来,极端高温事件和热日持续指数在1970s晚期至1980s初期发生了较大变化,此前主要表现为叠加在弱准12~13 a周期下的强准7 a周期,之后主要表现为准9 a周期,并有不连续的4~5 a周期;极端低温日数和冷日持续指数周期性在1950s~1990s表现为弱11~12 a周期,1970s晚期至1990s则表现为弱准5 a周期;（4）环鄱阳湖生态经济区内极端低温事件是气候变暖背景下对冬季风强度的敏感响应,极端低温事件的高频数（强烈波动）主要发生在强冬季风背景下,弱冬季风条件下则出现相反情况。而极端高温事件与夏季风强度关系复杂的多,其原因尚待进一步研究     

Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events. It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. This review examines the scientific evidences on the impact of climate change on human infectious diseases. It identifies research progress and gaps on how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. Based on a survey of related publications between 1990 and 2015, the terms used for literature selection reflect three aspects — the components of infectious diseases, climate variables, and selected infectious diseases. Humans' vulnerability to the potential health impacts by climate change is evident in literature. As an active agent, human beings may control the related health effects that may be effectively controlled through adopting proactive measures, including better understanding of the climate change patterns and of the compound disease-specific health effects, and effective allocation of technologies and resources to promote healthy lifestyles and public awareness. The following adaptation measures are recommended: 1) to go beyond empirical observations of the association between climate change and infectious diseases and develop more scientific explanations, 2) to improve the prediction of spatial–temporal process of climate change and the associated shifts in infectious diseases at various spatial and temporal scales, and 3) to establish locally effective early warning systems for the health effects of predicated climate change.     

Climate change,flooding in South Asia and implications

South Asia is one of the most flood vulnerable regions in the world. Floods occur often in the region triggered by heavy monsoon precipitation and can cause enormous damages to lives, property, crops and infrastructure. The frequency of extreme floods is on the rise in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. Past extreme floods fall within the range of climate variability but frequency, magnitude and extent flooding may increase in South Asia in future due to climate change. Flood risk is sensitive to different levels of warming. For example, in Bangladesh, analysis shows that most of the expected changes in flood depth and extent would occur between 0 and 2°C warming. The three major rivers Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna/Barak will play similar roles in future flooding regimes as they are doing presently. Increases in future flooding can cause extensive damage to rice crops in the monsoon. This may have implications for food security especially of poor women and children. Floods can also impact public health in the flood plains and in the coastal areas.     

2006年长江特枯径流特征及其原因初探

2006年长江流域出现了百年罕见的特大枯水,对长江流域用水和生态环境都产生了深远影响。使用2006年长江干支流主要水文站水情资料和长江流域气象资料,并同时考虑了三峡蓄水的影响,分析了2006年长江径流过程特征及其原因。研究发现,2006年长江径流量减少主要是汛期径流量显著减少所致,表现出“汛期特枯”的特点。径流量和水位最大降幅都出现在8~9月份,各站径流量最大减幅都超过50％,水位汛期也有显著下降。洞庭湖、汉江与历史同期相比,汛期来水也明显偏小;而鄱阳湖来水略丰,对干流枯水起到一定的缓和作用。7、8月份长江上游区（特别是屏山至宜昌区间）降水少气温高是形成长江汛期特枯的主要原因。气象变化与径流变化存在较好的对应关系。三峡蓄水使2006年10月宜昌站径流量减少了一半左右,而对10~11月大通径流减少影响率为187％。     

1.5℃温控目标下气候工程对中国极端高温强度影响的空间差异研究

全球变暖背景下极端高温热浪频发,已成为严重影响人类健康和社会可持续发展的气象灾害之一。基于BNU-ESM模式的气候工程(G4试验)和非气候工程(RCP4.5)情景下的2020～2099年日值最高气温数据和平均气温数据,采用韦伯分布理论,对比分析了气候工程实施中(2020～2069年)和实施结束后(2070～2099年)的中国极端高温强度区域差异特征。结果表明:(1)两种情景下的对比表明,气候工程并未从根本上改变中国不同重现期的极端高温强度空间高低分异特征。两种情景下的极端高温强度在两个时段均呈青藏高原低,东部和西北高的空间分异特征。(2)两种情景下的对比表明,气候工程在两个研究时段均有助于中国不同重现期极端高温强度的缓解,且实施期间的缓解作用明显高于结束后。(3)气候工程情景下2020～2069年与2070～2099年的对比结果表明,气候工程实施结束后并未引起极端高温的强烈反弹,且气候工程实施期间对极端高温强度的缓解作用明显高于结束后。(4)对比气候工程实施前后中国平均气温变化,结果表明气候工程使得中国平均气温至少降低了1.25℃,有效缓解了全球气候变暖,有利于《巴黎协定》1.5℃温控目标的实现。在当前1.5℃温控目标下,平均气温的降低有助于减少和缓解更多极端高温事件的频次与强度,深化气候工程对极端高温事件影响的认识。     

Farming adaptation to environmental change in coastal Bangladesh: shrimp culture versus crop diversification

Farming in coastal Bangladesh includes rice/shrimp and rice/non-rice cropping systems. The former has been highly profitable but has exacerbated salinization of soil and water. We evaluate the relative profitability, riskiness, and sustainability of the two cropping systems, using data from two coastal villages in Khulna District. Shrimp cultivation was initially very rewarding. However, over 12–15 years, the cropping system experienced declining profitability, increased salinity, and adverse impacts on rice cropping and the local environment. From 2009, farmers adapted the system by changing the pond (gher) infrastructure, adopting delayed planting of a saline-tolerant rice cultivar, flushing out accumulated salt with freshwater during rice cropping, and allowing the soil to dry out after harvesting rice. The budgeting results show that with current management practices, the rice/shrimp system is economically more viable (higher returns to land and labour and less risky) than the rice/non-rice system. Soil analyses showed that while salinity was higher in the gher during the dry season, it was significantly reduced in the wet season and was very similar between the two systems (1–2 dS/m). Hence, as well as being more profitable and less risky, the rice/shrimp system may well be more sustainable than previously observed.     

Adapting to climate change: an integrated biophysical and economic assessment for Mozambique

Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US$ 2.3 to US $7.4 billion during 2003?C2050. Our analysis identifies improved road design and agricultural sector investments as key ??no-regret?? adaptation measures, alongside intensified efforts to develop a more flexible and resilient society. Our findings also support the need for cooperative river basin management and the regional coordination of adaptation strategies.     

The responses of agriculture in Europe to climate change

Human activities are projected to lead to substantial increases in temperature that will impact northern Europe during winter and southern Europe during summer. Moreover, it is expected that these changes will cause increasing water shortages along the Mediterranean and in the south-west Balkans and in the south of European Russia. The consequences on the European agricultural ecosystems are likely to vary widely depending on the cropping system being investigated (i.e. cereals vs. forage crops vs. perennial horticulture), the region and the likely climate changes. In northern Europe, increases in yield and expansion of climatically suitable areas are expected to dominate, whereas disadvantages from increases in water shortage and extreme weather events (heat, drought, storms) will dominate in southern Europe. These effects may reinforce the current trends of intensification of agriculture in northern and western Europe and extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean and south-eastern parts of Europe. Among the adaptation options (i.e. autonomous or planned adaptation strategies) that may be explored to minimize the negative impacts of climate changes and to take advantage of positive impacts, changes in crop species, cultivar, sowing date, fertilization, irrigation, drainage, land allocation and farming system seem to be the most appropriate. In adopting these options, however, it is necessary to consider the multifunctional role of agriculture and to strike a variable balance between economic, environmental and economic functions in different European regions.     

中国气候变化的科学新认知

了解和认识百年来中国气候发生的变化、引起其变化的驱动因素以及未来的可能变化,可以更好地适应和减缓气候变化。本文综合评估了观测到的中国气候变化事实、中国气候变化的驱动力、中国未来气候变化预估三大方面,分析了气候变暖的趋势、水循环以及降水和冰川变化、极端天气气候事件变化、生物化学循环、海洋和土地覆盖变化及其气候效应以及未来气候变化的特点和趋势等最新科学进展。在中国百年温度趋势、气候系统多气候指标变化特征、极端天气气候事件中的人类活动作用以及气候系统模拟能力等方面的研究有了新的进展。可以看到中国气候变暖趋势持续、大气二氧化碳等长寿命温室气体浓度继续增长、人为强迫影响了多种气候要素在强度和频率的变化,中国陆地生态系统的固碳量增加。本文最后提出未来中国气候变化研究需要进一步加强的问题,包括:中国气候变化中的城市化效应、气候系统内部变率在年代际变化中的作用、气溶胶-云-降雨相互作用的机理、大范围土地利用变化(如大规模生态恢复工程)的气候效应,以及云辐射反馈、海洋环流对气候变化的响应与反馈、气候-碳循环反馈等过程对气候模拟不确定的影响等。     

The toxicology of climate change: Environmental contaminants in a warming world

Climate change induced by anthropogenic warming of the earth's atmosphere is a daunting problem. This review examines one of the consequences of climate change that has only recently attracted attention: namely, the effects of climate change on the environmental distribution and toxicity of chemical pollutants. A review was undertaken of the scientific literature (original research articles, reviews, government and intergovernmental reports) focusing on the interactions of toxicants with the environmental parameters, temperature, precipitation, and salinity, as altered by climate change. Three broad classes of chemical toxicants of global significance were the focus: air pollutants, persistent organic pollutants (POPs), including some organochlorine pesticides, and other classes of pesticides. Generally, increases in temperature will enhance the toxicity of contaminants and increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone regionally, but will also likely increase rates of chemical degradation. While further research is needed, climate change coupled with air pollutant exposures may have potentially serious adverse consequences for human health in urban and polluted regions. Climate change producing alterations in: food webs, lipid dynamics, ice and snow melt, and organic carbon cycling could result in increased POP levels in water, soil, and biota. There is also compelling evidence that increasing temperatures could be deleterious to pollutant-exposed wildlife. For example, elevated water temperatures may alter the biotransformation of contaminants to more bioactive metabolites and impair homeostasis. The complex interactions between climate change and pollutants may be particularly problematic for species living at the edge of their physiological tolerance range where acclimation capacity may be limited. In addition to temperature increases, regional precipitation patterns are projected to be altered with climate change. Regions subject to decreases in precipitation may experience enhanced volatilization of POPs and pesticides to the atmosphere. Reduced precipitation will also increase air pollution in urbanized regions resulting in negative health effects, which may be exacerbated by temperature increases. Regions subject to increased precipitation will have lower levels of air pollution, but will likely experience enhanced surface deposition of airborne POPs and increased run-off of pesticides. Moreover, increases in the intensity and frequency of storm events linked to climate change could lead to more severe episodes of chemical contamination of water bodies and surrounding watersheds. Changes in salinity may affect aquatic organisms as an independent stressor as well as by altering the bioavailability and in some instances increasing the toxicity of chemicals. A paramount issue will be to identify species and populations especially vulnerable to climate–pollutant interactions, in the context of the many other physical, chemical, and biological stressors that will be altered with climate change. Moreover, it will be important to predict tipping points that might trigger or accelerate synergistic interactions between climate change and contaminant exposures.