复杂机电系统可靠性预计方法探讨

可靠性预计是可靠性工程中一项重要工作,它是在可靠性试验之前唯一能给出系统可靠性指标预计值的方法.通过研究复杂机电系统的特点,讨论其可靠性指标预计难点.首先,将复杂机电系统按机械类分系统、电气类分系统和液压类(气动)分系统分别建立可靠性预计模型;其次,针对不同的分系统以及不同的设计阶段,采用不同的预计方法得出各类分系统的...     

电子装备贮存失效研究现状分析

针对国内外电子装备贮存可靠性研究历史进行了阐述,对贮存失效相关的贮存剖面、贮存失效机理、贮存可靠性评估模型和方法进行归纳总结,并最终得出电子产品贮存失效研究的几点结论。     

在多平台上应用的某产品可靠性增长摸底试验设计

同一产品用在不同的两个平台上能否同时满足这两个平台的使用要求，将两个平台结合起来进行可靠性增长试验设计可以回答这个问题，并且有利于节约经费，减少时间成本。该电子产品在平台A和平台B任务不同，可靠度非常接近。在剖面设计过程中，关于两个平台的温度、湿度、电应力的设计在相同的，振动应力将两个平台结合起来设计，振动应力取结合任务时间内在两个平台上的振动极大值包络。当增长模型未知，总试验时间采用指数分布的定时截尾方案。采用QJ3217-2000中没有增长模型的可靠性增长试验方法对试验结果的可靠性下限进行评估。最后对于多平台应用的产品，将多个平台结合起来进行可靠性增长摸底试验是可行的，符合我国的国情，易于被设计师接受。     

北斗导航终端设备可靠性加速试验与快速评价技术研究

针对北斗导航终端设备开展传统可靠性试验时间长、成本高,难以实现在短期内完成高可靠性指标考核的现状,借鉴加速试验建模技术和相关标准的加速模型参数,进行北斗导航整机可靠性加速建模,设计加速试验剖面和方案,预先评估出北斗导航终端设备的加速因子,通过一组样品即可完成北斗导航的加速试验,实现对北斗导航终端设备高可靠性指标的快速评估。     

考虑温湿度的可靠性快速评估方案选择优化和分析

随着长寿命和高可靠性特点产品的可靠性评估问题的日益突出,为了缩短可靠性评估时间、节省评估经费,加速寿命试验已成为主要发展方向。本文在不考虑综合环境干涉关系的基础上给出不同影响因素下的可靠性快速评估试验方案制定和选择优化过程,为后期快速选择可靠性评估方案提供依据。最后以某电子组件为例说明方案选择优化和分析过程。     

可靠性强化试验在某产品上的应用

首先介绍可靠性强化试验的基本概念和产品情况,接下来分析了可靠性强化试验的流程、敏感环境应力及试验剖面的设计。介绍了某产品的可靠性强化试验,对试验结果进行分析,并提出了改进建议。最后对可靠性强化试验的相关问题进行总结和展望。     

某高速数据解调终端分系统的可靠性定量设计

可靠性与产品的其它特性一样,是工程设计的一项重要参数。电子行业的可靠性数据指出：设计原因是产品不可靠的最重要的原因。本文针对某高速数据解调终端分系统特别高的可靠性要求,分析了一种比较复杂的可靠性模型,并从理论上给出了完整的可靠性设计方法和预计结果,解决了困扰类似电子系统可靠性定量设计的问题。     

随钻测量仪可靠性建模与评估方法

随钻测量仪(MWD)是随钻测井的关键设备,其可靠性高低对测井的效率有重要的影响。本文提出了随钻测量仪可靠性建模与评估方法。该方法通过采集随钻测量仪故障数据,分析初始累积分布函数图趋势,选择初始分布模型,并应用参数估计、拟合优度检验等检验模型拟合效果,最终确定产品寿命分布,实现对产品可靠性的建模与评估。实例分析表明,该方法简便有效,在一定样本量条件下,可作为随钻测量仪可靠性建模与评估的有效手段。     

绝缘结构综合应力加速寿命试验方法研究

针对绝缘结构在实际使用过程中受到综合应力因素的影响的特点,提出了一种基于综合应力的绝缘结构可靠性评估方法,可以有效地指导绝缘结构加速寿命试验的设计和实施。首先通过对绝缘结构进行失效机理及应力分析,确定影响绝缘结构寿命的主要应力,选取适当的综合应力加速模型。其次,确定各加速应力水平,进行综合应力加速寿命试验方案的设计。最后,基于失效数据对绝缘结构进行可靠性评估。     

弹上火工品可靠性评估方法分析

准确评估弹上火工品可靠度,对掌握弹上火工品可靠性水平和全弹可靠性评估起着至关重要的作用。本文根据弹上火工品试验数据特点,将可靠性评估方法归纳为成败型和连续型。针对成败型数据特点,研究了基于大样本量的二项分布法和基于小子样的最大熵试验法。针对连续型数据的特点,研究了应力—强度干涉模型中单一参数服从正态分布且其他参数为定值的计量法,双参数服从正态分布的应力—强度干涉模型及基于基准设计许用值和可靠性的安全系数法。通过分析上述方法的特点,介绍了可靠性评估方法的应用范围。     

社会影响评价在油气田钻井工程中的应用

本文介绍了国际石油工业环境保护协会（IPIECA）《石油天然气行业社会影响评价导则》中社会影响评价的定义、主要原则、主要内容、评价程序与方法等,并以某油气田钻井工程社会影响评价实践为例,论述了如何有效地开展油气田钻井工程社会影响评价工作。     

Validation of a hybrid life-cycle inventory analysis method

The life-cycle inventory analysis step of a life-cycle assessment (LCA) may currently suffer from several limitations, mainly concerned with the use of incomplete and unreliable data sources and methods of assessment. Many past LCA studies have used traditional inventory analysis methods, namely process analysis and input-output analysis. More recently, hybrid inventory analysis methods have been developed, combining these two traditional methods in an attempt to minimise their limitations. In light of recent improvements, these hybrid methods need to be compared and validated, as these too have been considered to have several limitations. This paper evaluates a recently developed hybrid inventory analysis method which aims to improve the limitations of previous methods. It was found that the truncation associated with process analysis can be up to 87%, reflecting the considerable shortcomings in the quantity of process data currently available. Capital inputs were found to account for up to 22% of the total inputs to a particular product. These findings suggest that current best-practice methods are sufficiently accurate for most typical applications, but this is heavily dependent upon data quality and availability. The use of input-output data assists in improving the system boundary completeness of life-cycle inventories. However, the use of input-output analysis alone does not always provide an accurate model for replacing process data. Further improvements in the quantity of process data currently available are needed to increase the reliability of life-cycle inventories.     

Accuracy improvement of various short-term load forecasting models by a novel and unified statistical data-filtering method

ABSTRACT

Time-series and machine-learning methods are being strongly exploited to improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting (STLF) results. In developing countries, power consumption behaviors could be suddenly changed by different customers, e.g. industrial customers, residential customers, so the load-demand dataset is often unstable. Therefore, reliability assessment of the load-demand dataset is obviously necessary for STLF models. Hence, this paper proposes a novel and unified statistical data-filtering method with the best confidence interval to eliminate unexpected noises/outliers of the input dataset before performing various short-term load forecasting models. This proposed novel data-filtering method, so-called the data pre-processing method, is also compared to other existing data-filtering methods (e.g. Kalman filter, Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise, Wavelet transform, and Singular Spectrum Analysis). By using an SCADA system?-based database of a typical 22kV distribution network in Vietnam, NYISO database, and PJM-RTO database, case studies of short-term load forecasting have been conducted with a conventional ARIMA model, an ANN forecasting model, an LSTM-RNN model, an LSTM-CNN combined model, a deep auto-encoder (DAE) network, a Wavenet-based model, a Wavenet and LSTM hybrid model, and a Wavelet Neural Network (WNN) model, which are to validate the novel and unified statistical data-filtering method proposed. The achieved numerical results demonstrate which the accuracy of the aforementioned STLF models can be significantly improved due to the proposed statistical data-filtering method with the best confidence interval of the input load dataset. The proposed statistical data-filtering method can considerably outperform the existing data-filtering methods.     

大型复杂电子系统电子元器件选用与管理方法研究

电子元器件是组成电子系统的最小单元,电子元器件的选用与管理是电子系统设计中最关键的一步,也是系统质量和可靠性的基础。本文从电子元器件管理架构、电子元器件的优选以及进口电子元器件的选用控制等方面提出了一套大型复杂电子系统电子元器件选用与管理方法,以加强和规范系统电子元器件的管理和选用,提高大型复杂电子系统的质量和可靠性。     

贮存寿命评价工具箱设计研究

作为装备贮存可靠性与贮存寿命评价的关键技术,加速寿命试验和加速退化试验已在工程中广泛应用,基于物理分析的贮存寿命特征检测技术也逐步在贮存寿命评价工程中开展。贮存寿命评价技术已有一套完整的理论基础并积累了大量的工程实践经验,但行业内至今仍缺少专门针对贮存寿命评价的软件工具。本文通过对贮存寿命评价工具箱的需求分析研究工作,构建了工具箱的技术框架,并给出工具箱各主要模块的业务流程图和业务概念图,为贮存寿命工具箱的开发提供了支撑。     

可靠性试验评价技术发展及其应用

本文介绍了可靠性试验评价的概况和技术发展,论述了可靠性仿真试验、可靠性强化试验、可靠性加速试验、系统可靠性试验、加速退化试验和可靠性综合评价的概念、方法、基本流程及其主要应用。     

Establishment of an economic evaluation model for urban recycled water

This study aimed at establishing an economic evaluation model to encourage continuing improvement in performance analysis and applying for any infrastructure system of urban recycled water. A thorough study towards characterization and economic performance assessment of urban water reuse scheme were carried out. An integrated evaluation technique was developed by synthesizing the quantitative and qualitative performance indicators related to the water recycled technology and urban water cycle system. Specific performance indicators and indexes were aggregated into an economic analytical modelling for effective evaluation of the water reuse scheme and technology using uniform economic performance standards. Detailed economic analyses were successfully applied to enable determination of economic lifetime of the technology and the whole water reuse scheme. This research confirmed that productivity, efficiency and reliability measurements and factors could be successfully deployed for determining the scheme performance during various life cycle stages (e.g. design development, operational and functional verification, or comparison with other reuse projects). The economic assessment model was applied to improve uniformity of analytical process and performance measure. This article demonstrates benefits associated with the application of a standardized methodology for performing economic assessment and by maintaining strong correlation between multi-parameter approach and adopted performance criteria in terms of productivity, efficiency and reliability. However, to ensure effectiveness of this assessment, the process would require systematic and perpetual inventory of the scheme performance data, consideration of variable factors such as capital and recurrent costs.     

大气环境质量模糊积分评价新方法

本文提出了应用模糊积分进行大气环境质量综合评价的具体方法和步骤,并用这一方法进行大气环境质量评价,取得了令人满意的结果。该方法的优点是简便实用,评价结果可靠。