首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 125 毫秒
1.
Climate change and energy service demand exert influence on each other through temperature change and greenhouse gas emissions. We have consistently evaluated global residential thermal demand and energy consumption up to the year 2050 under different climate change scenarios. We first constructed energy service demand intensity (energy service demand per household) functions for each of three services (space heating, space cooling, and water heating). The space heating and cooling demand in 2050 in the world as a whole become 2.1–2.3 and 3.8–4.5 times higher than the figures for 2010, whose ranges are originated from different global warming scenarios. Cost-effective residential energy consumption to satisfy service demand until 2050 was analyzed keeping consistency among different socio-economic conditions, ambient temperature, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission pathways using a global energy assessment model. Building shell improvement and fuel fuel-type transition reduce global final energy consumption for residential thermal heating by 30% in 2050 for a 2 °C target scenario. This study demonstrates that climate change affects residential space heating and cooling demand by regions, and their desirable strategies for cost-effective energy consumption depend on the global perspectives on CO2 emission reduction. Building shell improvement and energy efficiency improvement and fuel fuel-type transition of end-use technologies are considered to be robust measures for residential thermal demand under uncertain future CO2 emission pathways.  相似文献   

2.
The long-range transport of oxidized sulfur(sulfur dioxide(SO_2) and sulfate) and oxidized nitrogen(nitrogen oxides(NO_x ) and nitrate) in East Asia is an area of increasing scientific interest and political concern. This paper reviews various published papers, including ground- and satellite-based observations and numerical simulations. The aim is to assess the status of the anthropogenic emissions of SO_2 and NO_x and the long-range transport of oxidized S and N pollutants over source and downwind region. China has dominated the emissions of SO_2 and NO_x in East Asia and urgently needs to strengthen the control of their emissions, especially NO_x emissions. Oxidized S and N pollutants emitted from China are transported to Korea and Japan, due to persistent westerly winds, in winter and spring.However, the total contributions of China to S and N pollutants across Korea and Japan were not found to be dominant over longer time scales(e.g., a year). The source–receptor relationships for oxidized S and N pollutants in East Asia varied widely among the different studies. This is because:(1) the nonlinear effects of atmospheric chemistry and deposition processes were not well considered, when calculating the source–receptor relationships;(2) different meteorological and emission data inputs and solution schemes for key physical and chemical processes were used; and(3) different temporal and spatial scales were employed. Therefore, simulations using the same input fields and similar model configurations would be of benefit, to further evaluate the source–receptor relationships of the oxidized S and N pollutants.  相似文献   

3.
The global waste sector produces, on average, 2–5 % of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The amount of GHG emissions has grown steadily and is predicted to increase considerable in the forthcoming decades because of the increases in population and gross domestic product (GDP). However, the GHG mitigation opportunities for the sector are still fully not exploited, in particularly in developing countries. A series of initiatives were highly successful and showed that large reductions in emissions are possible. This study aims to propose a holistic quantification model, which can be used for estimation of waste generation and evaluation of the potential reduction of GHG emissions in waste sector for developing countries with a particular application to Vietnam. The two scenarios set for the study were business as usual (BaU) which waste management is assumed to follow past and current trends and CounterMeasure (CM) which alternative waste treatment and management are assessed. Total emissions in the BaU scenario are projected to increase from 29.47 MtCO2eq in 2010 to 85.60 MtCO2eq by 2030 and 176.32 MtCO2eq by 2050. The highest emissions are due to methane (CH4) released by disposal sites, accounting for about 60 % of the GHG emissions from waste in Vietnam in 2030. This emission is projected to increase significantly (67 % in 2050), unless more of the methane is captured and used for energy generation. The CM scenario gives emission reductions from 25.7 % (2020), 40.5 % (2030) to 56.6 % (2050) compared to the BaU scenario. The highest GHG reduction is achieved through recycling, followed by methane recovery to optimize the co-benefit for climate change mitigation.  相似文献   

4.

China is among the largest emitters of carbon dioxide (CO2), worldwide Thus, its emissions mitigation is of global concern. The power generation sector is responsible for nearly half of China’s total CO2 emissions and plays a key role in emissions mitigation. This study is an integrated evaluation of abatement technologies, including both low-carbon power generation technologies and retrofitting options for coal power plants. We draw marginal abatement cost curves for these technologies using the conservation supply curve method. Using scenario analysis for the years 2015 to 2030, we discuss the potential performance of abatement technologies. Marginal costs for the analyzed abatement technologies range from RMB ? 357.41/ton CO2 to RMB 927.95/ton CO2. Furthermore, their cumulative mitigation potential relative to the baseline scenario could reach 35 billion tons of CO2 in 2015–2030, with low-carbon power generation technologies and coal power abatement technologies contributing 55% and 45% of the total mitigation, respectively. Our case study of China demonstrates the power generation sector’s great potential to mitigate global emissions, and we suggest nuclear power, hydropower, and the comprehensive retrofitting of coal power as key technology options for the low-carbon transition of the energy system and long-term emissions mitigation strategies.

  相似文献   

5.
We perform a scenario analysis of three strategies for long-term energy savings and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reductions in iron and steel production in China, using a linear optimization modeling framework industry sector energy efficiency modeling (ISEEM). The modeling includes annual projections for one base scenario representing business-as-usual (BAU) and three additional scenarios representing different strategies to reduce annual energy use and CO2 emissions from 2010 to 2050. Specifically, the three scenarios for cost-optimization modeling include changing the production share (PS), predefining emission reduction (ER) target, and stipulating carbon emission pricing (CP), respectively. While the three strategies are projected to result in similar annual energy savings by approximately 15 % compared to that of the BAU scenario in year 2050, the carbon emission pricing strategy brings about the highest annual energy savings in the medium term (e.g., 2025). In addition, adopting carbon emission pricing strategy will result in the highest emission reduction from BAU with much higher costs, i.e., by 20 % in 2025 and 41 % in 2050, while adopting either PS or ER strategies will result in a moderate level of emission reduction from BAU, i.e., by approximately 4 % in 2025 and 14 % in 2050. The analysis of China’s national strategies to reduce energy use and emissions provides important implications for global mitigation strategies.  相似文献   

6.
Carbon dioxide emissions from 1990 to 2100 AD are decomposed into the product of four factors: population size, affluence (measured here as GDP per capita), energy intensity (energy use per unit GDP) and carbon intensity (carbon dioxide emissions per unit energy). These emissions factors are further subdivided into three regions: more developed countries (MDCs), China, and the remaining less developed countries (LDCs). Departures from a baseline scenario (based on IPCC, 1992a — the so-called ‘business-as-usual’ scenario) are calculated for a variety of alternative assumptions concerning the four emissions factors in the three regions. Although the IPCC scenario is called a ‘non-intervention’ scenario, it is shown, for example, that large decreases in energy intensity in China or carbon intensity in MDCs are built into the ‘business as usual’ case — and such large changes vary considerably from region to region. We show what CO2 emissions would look like if each of these four emissions factors projected in the baseline case somehow remained constant at 1990 levels. Certain factors like energy intensity improvements and long-term population growth in LDCs, or GDP growth and carbon intensity improvements in MDCs, are shown to have a big contribution to cumulative global emissions to 2100 AD, and consequently, changes in these projected factors will lead to significant deviations from baseline emissions. None of the scenarios examined in this analysis seems to indicate that any one global factor is clearly dominant, but cultural, economic, and political costs or opportunities of altering each factor may differ greatly from country to country.  相似文献   

7.
The nonferrous metal industry (NMI) of China consumes large amounts of energy and associated emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2) are very high. Actions to reduce CO 2 emissions and energy consumption are warranted. This study aims to analyze current China NMI trends of CO 2 emissions and energy consumption including the underlying regional driver characteristics. We analyze the changes of CO 2 emissions in the NMI based on the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method from 2000 to 2011. Then, a classification system is used to study the regional differences in emission changes from the NMI. The results show that the emissions of the Chinese NMI increased rapidly at an average annual growth rate of 31 million metric tons. The economic scale and energy intensity are the main driving factors responsible for the change in the emissions, while carbon emission coefficients make only a small contribution toward decreasing the emissions, and the energy structure has a volatile effect. Emissions and energy intensity of 29 China provinces were divided into five categories. The change in the trend of each region is indicated in this paper. Hebei is one of the provinces that achieved the best performance, and Chongqing achieved the worst performance among all of the regions. The analysis suggests that the main emphasis of CO 2 emission mitigation should be focused on controlling the economic scale and improving the energy intensity. Developing the use of clean energy technologies and policies in both the NMI and power industries is important.  相似文献   

8.
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) may become a key technology to limit human-induced global warming, but many uncertainties prevail, including the necessary technological development, costs, legal ramifications, and siting. As such, an important question is the scale of carbon dioxide abatement we require from CCS to meet future climate targets, and whether they appear reasonable. For a number of energy technology and efficiency improvement scenarios, we use a simple climate model to assess the necessary contribution from CCS to ‘fill the gap’ between scenarios’ carbon dioxide emissions levels and the levels needed to meet alternative climate targets. The need for CCS depends on early or delayed action to curb emissions and the characteristics of the assumed energy scenario. To meet a 2.5°C target a large contribution and fast deployment rates for CCS are required. The required deployment rates are much faster than those seen in the deployment of renewable energy technologies as well as nuclear power the last decades, and may not be feasible. This indicates that more contributions are needed from other low-carbon energy technologies and improved energy efficiency, or substitution of coal for gas in the first half of the century. In addition the limited availability of coal and gas by end of the century and resulting limited scope for CCS implies that meeting the 2.5°C target would require significant contributions from one or more of the following options: CCS linked to oil use, biomass energy based CCS (BECCS), and CCS linked to industrial processes.  相似文献   

9.
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a promising technology for reducing carbon emissions, but the public is often reluctant to support it. To understand why public support is lacking, it is crucial to establish what citizens think about the arguments that are used by proponents and opponents of CCS. We determined the persuasiveness, importance and novelty of 32 arguments for and against CCS using a discrete choice experiment in which respondents made consecutive choices between pairs of pro or con arguments. We used latent class models to identify population segments with different preferences. The results show that citizens find arguments about climate protection, which is the primary goal of CCS, less persuasive than other arguments, such as normative arguments (for example ‘a waste product such as CO2 should be disposed of properly’) or arguments about benefits of CCS for energy production and economic growth. This discrepancy complicates communication that aims to convince citizens of the benefits of CCS for climate protection.  相似文献   

10.
Managing forests to increase carbon sequestration or reduce carbon emissions and using wood products and bioenergy to store carbon and substitute for other emission-intensive products and fossil fuel energy have been considered effective ways to tackle climate change in many countries and regions. The objective of this study is to examine the climate change mitigation potential of the forest sector by developing and assessing potential mitigation strategies and portfolios with various goals in British Columbia (BC), Canada. From a systems perspective, mitigation potentials of five individual strategies and their combinations were examined with regionally differentiated implementations of changes. We also calculated cost curves for the strategies and explored socio-economic impacts using an input-output model. Our results showed a wide range of mitigation potentials and that both the magnitude and the timing of mitigation varied across strategies. The greatest mitigation potential was achieved by improving the harvest utilization, shifting the commodity mix to longer-lived wood products, and using harvest residues for bioenergy. The highest cumulative mitigation of 421 MtCO2e for BC was estimated when employing the strategy portfolio that maximized domestic mitigation during 2017–2050, and this would contribute 35% of BC’s greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2050 at less than $100/tCO2e and provide additional socio-economic benefits. This case study demonstrated the application of an integrated systems approach that tracks carbon stock changes and emissions in forest ecosystems, harvested wood products (HWPs), and the avoidance of emissions through the use of HWPs and is therefore applicable to other countries and regions.  相似文献   

11.
Climate change is creating substantial and growing impacts on the Northeastern United States. As the world’s seventh largest contributor of heat trapping carbon dioxide, the region will play a critical role in moving towards stabilizing global concentrations at a level that avoids serious adverse consequences. The Northeast region is well positioned to be a leader in technology and policy innovation for reducing emissions, and can drive national and international programs that are essential to providing a safer future climate. This paper summarizes technological mitigation options and measures as well as opportunities for public and private actions to reduce emissions. The authors propose a ‘3% solution’ of annual emission reductions to put the Northeastern United States on an emissions reductions path that is consistent with the level of reductions necessary to avoid dangerous climate change. The 3% solution requires a combination of policies that will reduce the energy imbedded in the region’s infrastructure and technologies, and individual action to choose the lowest emitting of available technologies and practices.  相似文献   

12.
Carbon dioxide capture and permanent storage (CCS) is one of the most frequently discussed technologies with the potential to mitigate climate change. The natural target for CCS has been the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil energy sources. However, CCS has also been suggested in combination with biomass during recent years. Given that the impact on the earth's radiative balance is the same whether CO2 emissions of a fossil or a biomass origin are captured and stored away from the atmosphere, we argue that an equal reward should be given for the CCS, independent of the origin of the CO2. The guidelines that provide assistance for the national greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting under the Kyoto Protocol have not considered CCS from biomass (biotic CCS) and it appears that it is not possible to receive emission credits for biotic CCS under the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, i.e., 2008–2012. We argue that it would be unwise to exclude this GHG mitigation alternative from the competition with other GHG mitigation options. We also propose a feasible approach as to how emission credits for biotic CCS could be included within a future accounting framework.  相似文献   

13.
To date, international efforts to mitigate climate change have focussed on reducing emissions of greenhouse gases in the energy, transportation and agriculture sectors, and on sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide in forests. Here, the potential to complement these efforts by actions to enhance the reflectance of solar insolation by the human settlement and grassland components of the Earth's terrestrial surface is explored. Preliminary estimates derived using a static two dimensional radiative transfer model indicate that such efforts could amplify the overall planetary albedo enough to offset the current global annual average level of radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases by as much as 30% or 0.76 Wm− 2. Terrestrial albedo amplification may thus extend, by about 25 years, the time available to advance the development and use of low-emission energy conversion technologies which ultimately remain essential to mitigate long-term climate change. While a scoping analysis indicates the technical feasibility of sufficiently enhancing human settlement and grassland albedos to levels needed to achieve reductions in radiative forcing projected here, additional study is required on two fronts. Firstly, the modelled radiative forcing reductions are static estimates. As they would generate climate feedbacks, more detailed dynamic climate modelling would be needed to confirm the stationary value of the radiative forcing reduction that would result from land surface albedo amplification. Secondly, land surface albedo amplification schemes may have important economic and environmental impacts. Accurate ex ante impact assessments would be required to validate global implementation of related measures as a viable mitigation strategy.  相似文献   

14.
Already there are many complicating factors (‘gremlins’) that frustrate attempts to link observed climate changes to predictions from the greenhouse hypothesis. Consequences of these ‘gremlins in the greenhouse’ (along with their possible identities) include hemispherically asymmetric cooling of the lower stratosphere (perhaps caused by asymmetric ozone destruction by chlorofluorocarbons), cooling of the tropical upper troposphere (perhaps caused by an increase in water vapor), lack of polar amplification of lower tropospheric warming (poorly modeled clouds, ocean currents, ice and snow et al.), and asymmetric warming of the lower tropospheres of the two hemispheres (differences in thermal inertias, responses to volcanic eruptions et al.). In this report, emphasis is on examining hints that the cause of the relative cooling of the Northern Hemisphere has been anthropogenic sulfur emission; it is concluded that this concept is not inconsistent with the data; however, the possibility that all observed temperature changes are natural is also not inconsistent with the data. Research needed to remove these ambiguities includes more extensive monitoring, improvements to climate models, advances in statistical analyses of time series, better definition of climatic consequences of volcanic eruptions, and focused efforts to understand and describe the major climate changes that occurred in the Northern Hemisphere c. 1940 and 1815.  相似文献   

15.
Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution,but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development,three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO2 emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product(GDP) growth rate of 6.45%,total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%,48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual(BaU),Carbon Reduction(CR)and Integrated Low Carbon Economy(ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO2 emissions will increase from 6.7 billion tons in 2009 to 9.5,11,11.6 and11.2 billion tons; 8.2,9.2,9.6 and 9 billion tons; 7.1,7.4,7.2 and 6.4 billion tons in 2020,2030,2040 and 2050 under the BaU,CR and ILCE scenarios,respectively. Total CO2 emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050,compared with the BaU scenario.To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions,China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency,optimization of energy structure,deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation.  相似文献   

16.
A preliminary sulfur dioxide emissions inventory for East Asia was developed. The annual emissions rate for fossil-fuel related sulfur was estimated for a 80 km mesh grid using energy consumption and industrial activity data for the region. The total sulfur dioxide emissions from this area as sulfur were about 11.5 TgSy−1, almost equal to the emissions in north-western Europe or the north-eastern U.S. which are regions where acid deposition occurs. Emissions from mobile sources were found to be relatively small, while coal-fired stationary sources contribute a large part of the sulfur dioxide emissions in East Asia.  相似文献   

17.

Pathways for achieving the 1.5–2 °C global temperature moderation target imply a massive scaling of carbon dioxide (CO2) removal technologies, in particular in the 2040s and onwards. CO2 direct air capture (DAC) is among the most promising negative emission technologies (NETs). The energy demands for low-temperature solid-sorbent DAC are mainly heat at around 100 °C and electricity, which lead to sustainably operated DAC systems based on low-cost renewable electricity and heat pumps for the heat supply. This analysis is carried out for the case of the Maghreb region, which enjoys abundantly available low-cost renewable energy resources. The energy transition results for the Maghreb region lead to a solar photovoltaic (PV)-dominated energy supply with some wind energy contribution. DAC systems will need the same energy supply structure. The research investigates the levelised cost of CO2 DAC (LCOD) in high spatial resolution and is based on full hourly modelling for the Maghreb region. The key results are LCOD of about 55 €/tCO2 in 2050 with a further cost reduction potential of up to 50%. The area demand is considered and concluded to be negligible. Major conclusions for CO2 removal as a new energy sector are drawn. Key options for a global climate change mitigation strategy are first an energy transition towards renewable energy and second NETs for achieving the targets of the Paris Agreement.

  相似文献   

18.
The anthropogenic emissions of SO2 and NOx for 25 Asian countries east of Afghanistan and Pakistan have been calculated for 1975, 1980, 1986, 1986 and 1987 based on fuel consumption, sulfur content in fuels and emission factors for used fuels in each emission category. The provincial- and regional-based calculations have also been made for China and India. The total SO2 emissions in these parts of Asia have been calculated to be 18.3 and 29.1 Tg in 1975 and 1987, respectively. The calculated total NOx emissions were 9.4 and 15.5 Tg in 1975 and 1987, respectively. The SO2 and NOx emissions in East Asia (China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea and Taiwan) were 23.4 and 10.7 Tg in 1975 and 1987, respectively.  相似文献   

19.
Carbon emissions from tropical deforestation account for about 25% of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions but cannot be credited under current climate change agreements. In the discussions around the architecture of the post-2012 climate regime, the possibility of including credits for reduced emissions from deforestation arises. The paper reviews two approaches for this, compensated reductions (CR) as proposed by Santilli et al. and the Joint Research Centre proposal that combine voluntary commitments by non-Annex I countries to reduce emissions from deforestation with carbon market financing. Both approaches have the clear advantages of simplicity and the possibility of fitting to an evolving greenhouse gas emission reduction regime. The authors consider the strengths and limitations of each proposal and build upon them to address several implementation challenges and options for improvement. Given the urgency of avoiding dangerous climate change, the timely development of technically sound, politically acceptable, cost-effective and practicable measures to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation is essential. These two approaches take us a step closer to this goal, but they need to be refined rapidly to enable this goal to be realised.  相似文献   

20.
China and India together have more than one third of the world population and are two emerging economic giants of the developing world now experiencing rapid economic growth, urbanization, and motorization. The urban transportation sector is a major source of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in China and India. The goal of this study is to analyze the characteristics and factors of CO2 emissions produced by commuters in Chinese and Indian cities and thus to identify strategies for reducing transportation CO2 emissions and mitigating global climate change. Xi’an in China and Bangalore in India were chosen as two case study cities for their representativeness of major cities in China and India. The trends of CO2 emissions produced by major traffic modes (electric motors, buses, and cars) in major cities of China and India were predicted and analyzed. The spatial distributions of CO2 emissions produced by commuters in both cities were assessed using spatial analysis module in ArcGIS (Geographic Information System) software. Tobit models were then developed to investigate the impact factors of the emissions. The study has several findings. Firstly, in both cities, the increase of vehicle occupancy could reduce commuting CO2 emissions by 20 to 50 % or conversely, if vehicle occupancy reduces, an increase by 33.33 to 66.67 %. It is estimated that, with the current increasing speed of CO2 emissions in Xi’an, the total CO2 emissions from electric motors, buses, and cars in major cities of China and India will be increased from 135?×?106 t in 2012 to 961?×?106 t in 2030, accounting for 0.37 to 2.67 % of the total global CO2 emissions of 2013, which is significant for global climate change. Secondly, households and individuals in the outer areas of both cities produce higher emissions than those in the inner areas. Thirdly, the lower emissions in Xi’an are due to the higher density and more compact urban pattern, shorter commuting distances, higher transit shares, and more clean energy vehicles. The more dispersed and extensive urban sprawl and the prevalence of two-wheeler motorbikes (two-wheeler motorbike is abbreviated as “two-wheeler” in the following sections) fueled by gasoline cause higher emissions in Bangalore. Fourthly, car availability, higher household income, living outside the 2nd or Outer Ring Road, distance from the bus stop, and working in the foreign companies in Bangalore are significant and positive factors of commuting CO2 emissions. Fifthly, “70-20” and “50-20” (this means that generally, 20 % of commuters and households produce 70 % of total emissions in Xi’an and 20 % of commuters and households produce 50 % of total emissions in Bangalore) emission patterns exist in Xi’an and Bangalore, respectively. Several strategies have been proposed to reduce urban CO2 emissions produced by commuters and further to mitigate global climate change. Firstly, in the early stage of fast urbanization, enough monetary and land investment should be ensured to develop rail transit or rapid bus routes from outer areas to inner areas in the cities to avoid high dependency on cars, thus to implement the transit-oriented development (TOD), which is the key for Chinese and Indian cities to mitigate the impact on global climate change caused by CO2 emissions. Secondly, in Bangalore, it is necessary to improve public transit service and increase the bus stop coverage combined with car demand controls along the ring roads, in the outer areas, and in the industry areas where Indian foreign companies and the governments are located. Thirdly, Indian should put more efforts to provide alternative cleaner transport modes while China should put more efforts to reduce CO2 emissions from high emitters.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号