邓楠理事长在中国可持续发展研究会2007年学术年会上的致辞

各位代表、各位来宾： 大家好! 首先，我代表中国可持续发展研究会对参加2007年学术年会的嘉宾、专家与学者表示热烈的欢迎，向多年来支持和致力于研究会工作的各界领导、各位同仁表示衷心的感谢!     

沿海城市自然灾害脆弱性评价研究——以上海浦东新区为例

沿海城市在全球发展中具有重要的战略地位，然而特殊的地理位置和高度集中的人口及财富也决定了其面临灾害具有较高的脆弱性，即同等灾害强度下，沿海城市遭遇自然灾害时的人口伤亡更多、经济损失更大。从灾害系统承灾体的角度，分析影响灾害脆弱性的基础设施、城市形态与结构和灾害管理体制等5个方面，顺应脆弱性评价定量化的趋势，依据一定的原则，不分灾种，面对区域和人群，选取代表性指标尝试构建了沿海城市自然灾害脆弱性的评价指标体系，利用AHP法对该区域相应指标的权重进行确定，建立了脆弱性模型，并在收集和标准化数据的基础上，以上海市浦东开发区为例进行了实证分析。结果证明，模拟结果与实际情况基本吻合，可以为沿海城市防灾减灾提供科科学依据，有一定的参考价值。     

用水户参与灌溉管理模式运行机制与绩效实证分析

我国是一个水资源非常短缺的国家。推行用水户参与灌溉管理（SIDD）模式是解决这一难题的重要措施之一。SIDD管理模式运行机制可以从产权制度安排、运营制度安排、激励制度安排、组织制度安排等进行分析，其运行绩效体现在用水机制、管理方式、交易成本降低等方面。结合江苏皂河灌区管理体制改革，分析了SIDD管理模式的运行机制、绩效及存在的问题。为完善这一管理模式．主要的建议是：制订相关的规章制度，使农户广泛参与；建立多元化的投入机制．拓宽资金来源渠道；遵循市场经济运作机制，深化农业水价改革；明确政府职能。加强指导、服务和监管。     

乡村道路收益评估分析

乡村道路建设对于农村的经济发展、降低贫困等具有重要意义,对于如何评价乡村道路收益一直以来都存在着争议。传统的成本-效益分析方法具体来说有消费者剩余方法、生产者剩余方法等,但是由于这些方法都存在共同的缺陷,即不适合衡量交通流量小的地区乡村道路收益,对乡村道路收益的衡量依然存在低估的问题,引起了诸多学者的批评。本文通过构建新的计量经济学方法,利用对湖北农村家庭的实际调查数据,发现乡村道路建设可以有效地节约农村家庭交通成本、提高男性和女性劳动力的农业工资水平、提高学龄儿童的入学率、降低农业和非农业生产投入产品的价格等,对农村家庭具有重要的即时和长期的正向利益影响。     

Application of optimal harvesting decision model to the analysis of Chinese forestry economic policy

This paper firstly extends the single period forest optimal harvesting decision model to infinite periods,in order to indicate how to determine the optimal rotation period aimed at maximizing forest revenue in all directions when repeat planting and harvesting trees on the same plot of earth till infinite future.The study also analyzes the influence of discounted rates,timber price,harvesting costs,planting costs,and tax on the determination of optimal rotation period;and how the optimal rotation period will change when we introduce the factors of continuously rising timber price and ecological revenue.Secondly,the authors introduce the intergenerational equity principle into the above model to design a resource-exploiting mode which satisfies bom the dynamic efficiency principle and the intergenerational equity principle.Last but not least,the research applies the above model to the analysis of Chinese forestry economic policy and explains the economic theory of institutions such as Government Purchasing Ecological Forest,Tree Compensation,and Forestry Subsidization,which provides a necessary theoretical foundation for future application of these new institutions.Besides,in regard to mis theoretical framework,the authors analyze the necessity of the Natural Forest Protection and Grain for Green projects which are currently being implemented in China.We also point out the emphasis of work to insure the project sustainable and successful.Finally,the research discusses the enterprise’s incentive to over-the-quota harvesting and the government’s means of restricting such behavior,which highlights the fact mat improved supervision and higher penalties are helpful in restricting over-the-quota harvesting.     

Responses of food production systems to climate change:sensitivity and vulnerability

Climate warming has prolonged the optimization of crop-growing seasons,shortened actual growth periods,and changed crop-planting boundaries.It also has boosted crop yields in certain regions while compromising crop quality and affected the occurrence of meteorological disasters and pest diseases damage,which has resulted in reduction in grain yield.Crop production systems will evidence more sensitivity to climate change in future;for example,with an increase of 1°C in temperature,the average growth period will be shortened by 17 days for winter wheat and 7-8 days for maize and rice.Of course regional differences will exist.Climate change will threaten crop yield stability and affect crop quality.Vulnerability will be addressed in regard to extreme climatic events,which include reducing exposure and improving adaptive capacity,because the exposure of rain-fed agriculture is greater than that of irrigated agriculture.Therefore,we propose three suggestions to reduce the vulnerability of crop production systems to climate change.First,strengthen the evaluation capacity construction of sensitivity,which includes(1)refining and improving all types of evaluation indicator systems and models;(2)innovating and developing evaluation methods and tools;and(3)combining field observation and case studies,so that(1)the impact of climate change and sensitivity can be assessed scientifically;(2)uncertainty in the study can be identified and reduced;and(3)improved understanding of climate systems and their changes,climate change impact,and sensitivity will be achieved.Second,strengthen adaptive capacity construction for crop production systems,which includes(1)rebuilding existing farmland infrastructure to improve meteorological disaster defences;(2)adjusting agriculture structure and adopting new crop varieties with enhanced resistance;(3)popularizing water-saving technology and dry farming technology;and(4)further researching interdisciplinary theories and methods.Third,strengthen function construction for natural and social s     

Research on the development and planning of renewable energy in Tibet

With the rapid social and economic development of the Tibet Autonomous Region,the situation in regard to energy supply and demand is increasingly tense.Meanwhile,the development of renewable energy in Tibet has been given considerable practical significance by its peculiar ecological environment.Given the complementarity of renewable energies in Tibet,using the method of factor analysis,we derived four major factors:level of economic development,social development,industrial development,and energy endowment,which help to evaluate development conditions in different regions of Tibet.Treating these four factors equally,we used the hierarchical clustering method to determine the order of regional development.Thus we acquire a three-stage planning project for renewable energy.In the first stage,Lhasa plays a leading role in promoting the development of renewable energy,particularly that based on solar and wind energy.There are two phases in the second stage,the first being to simultaneously develop solar and wind energy in Xigaze and Nyingchi.The second is to develop solar and wind energy in accordance with the time of year in Qamdo,Nagqu,and Ali,with 1.145billion kWh electricity to be generated.The third stage is to develop energy production in Lhoka Prefecture,with 1.369billion kWh electricity to be generated.At the end of the three-stage project,consumption of available electricity will have reached 4.045 billion kwh,with major social and economic benefits.     

Simulating potential vegetation distribution in a mountainous region of the Eastern Tibetan Plateau:A case study of Barkam County

The main objective of this study is to simulate the potential vegetation types on the basis of environmental parameters.The paper took Barkam County in a mountainous region of the Eastern Tibetan Plateau as the study area.The vegetation distribution was mapped in 1994 and 2007 based on TM remote sensing images by object-oriented interpretation method.We overlaid the two maps to find out the vegetation patches which have not changed,and took them as stable types.Fifty per cent of the stable patches were randomly sampled to operate the logistic regression with related environmental parameters;others were used as test data of simulated results.Seven environmental parameters were mapped,including elevation,slope,aspect,surface curvature,solar radiation,temperature and precipitation,based on DEM data and meteorological site data by GIS technology.The relationship between the spatial distribution of vegetation and environmental variables were quantified by logistic regression.The distribution probabilities of each vegetation type were calculated.Finally,the spatial distribution of potential vegetation was simulated.This research can provide a scientific basis for vegetation restoration and ecological construction in this area.     

经济增长下的渤海环境容量预测

据1999，2002—2005年渤海活性磷酸盐、石油类、无机氮的水质监测资料。采用箱式模型。估算渤海及各分区现状下及不同经济增长率下的环境容量预测值。估算结果显示．分污染物来看，各年份均是无机氮较大，石油类次之．活性磷酸盐较小；分区域来看。各年份各污染物均是渤海中部较大，辽东湾、渤海湾次之，莱州湾最小；从时间变化来看。除活性磷酸盐外。石油类和无机氯自2002年到2004年逐年减小。假设渤海污染物排入量随着经济增长每年增加5％。以达到环境容量极限值需要的年数来看。自2005年。分别在7年、4年、17年后渤海的石油类、活性磷酸盐、无机氮将达不到一类水质标准，50年、19年、37年后超过四类水质下环境容量极限值；假设随着经济增长污染物排海量每年增长10％，那么自2005年起。29年、13年和22年后三种污染物将超过四类水质下环境容量极限值。     

永定河河道修复生态功能区划研究

河道生态功能区划是依据区域生态系统现状、生态环境敏感性、生态服务功能重要性等特征的空间分异性而进行的空间分区,是进行河流生态修复的科学依据.本文利用GIS和RS技术,在区域生态环境调查的基础上,分析了永定河北京段生态问题、生态功能重要性等,揭示了区域生态系统的分异规律.综合自然因素与人类活动对区域生态系统叠加影响,最终形成了永定河北京段生态功能区划方案,划分为自然段、近自然段、城市景观段、人工绿化段、自然绿化段等5个区域,并结合永定河多元化用途、相关发展规划和社会经济发展状况等因素,提出各区域的生态修复调控指标,为永定河北京段生态修复提供了科学指导.     

长江干流典型区域河流生境健康评价

河流生境是河流生态系统中的重要组成部分，是维持河流健康的重要因素。河流生境健康的准确评估可以为河流生态系统的保护与修复提供重要依据。针对长江干流生境特点，从河流物理生境形态、河流岸边带生境和水环境特征3个方面选取了10个指标，构建了长江干流生境评价的指标体系。基于该评价体系，在2017年8~9月对长江干流的金沙江下游、三峡库区、长江中下游3个典型区域的127个调查断面进行河流生境综合评估。结果表明：金沙江下游、三峡库区、长江中下游河流生境综合指数（RHI）分值的分别为133.9、124.6、130.8，总体评价等级均为“良”。水流情势、受人类活动干扰是金沙江下游生境变化的主要驱动因子，河岸渠化硬化、河岸植被覆盖、河岸植被带宽则是三峡库区和长江中下游生境变化的主要驱动因子。建议长江上游区域强化水生生物重要栖息地完整性保护，中下游区域加强岸边带、洲滩的生态修复，恢复江湖连通性，构建长江流域生态廊道和生物多样性保护网络。     

浑河流域底栖动物生物完整性指数构建与健康评价

应用大型底栖动物生物完整性指数(Benthic Index of Biological Integrity, B-IBI)评价河流健康已成为河流生态系统管理的重要方法。根据2010年5月对浑河流域62个采样点的底栖动物调查数据,基于采样点的水质等级、栖息地质量综合评估指数、人类干扰强度和河岸土地利用评估等标准,选择同属于辽河水系的太子河流域的8个采样点作为参照点,构建浑河流域B-IBI生物完整性指数。通过对34个生物参数的分布范围检验、判别能力分析以及相关性检验,最终确定浑河流域B-IBI生物完整性指数由总分类单元数、EPT(蜉蝣目Ephemeroptera、襀翅目Plecoptera、毛翅目Trichoptera)相对丰度、耐污类群相对丰度、最优势类群分类单元数、直接收集者相对丰度以及香农威纳多样性指数6个参数构成。根据各参数值随干扰增强的变化趋势,采用比值法计算各指标的分值和评价标准。结果表明:浑河流域B-IBI平均得分为2.56,河流健康状态处于一般状态;62个采样点中,9个处于健康状态,13个处于亚健康状态、22个处于一般状态、10个处于差状态,8个处于极差状态;从流域空间尺度上来看,河流健康状态从上游区到下游区逐渐变差。相关性分析表明,B-IBI与水温、电导、溶解性固体总量、硝酸盐、总氮、五日生化需氧量等水环境指标呈现显著负相关,表明B-IBI指数对于水质污染具有较好的指示性作用。综上所述,浑河流域由于受城市工业区的分布影响,大型底栖动物生物完整性呈现出明显的空间分布差异,上游区河流生物完整性较好、中下游底栖动物群落呈现出明显的退化趋势。     

Exploring Indigenous Understandings of River Dynamics and River Flows: A Case from New Zealand

Indigenous communities are particularly sensitive to the use and development of freshwaters, as they hold distinct perspectives on water which reflect their identity, and their custodial obligations to manage tribal waters. Within New Zealand, Maori (the indigenous people) have, for generations, voiced their concerns about the continual modification of waterways within their tribal territories. Until about the mid-nineteenth century, water quality was at the forefront of issues concerning human manipulation of rivers and streams. A range of new issues then arose that were increasingly concerned with reduced river flows. Of the many techniques developed to address these issues, many rely heavily on professional expertise and objective, scientific philosophies, which often fail to recognize cultural values, and benefit from cultural knowledge. This essay presents examples of the knowledge of streams and rivers held within Maori communities that could benefit contemporary resource management if it can be determined how cultural knowledge and practices and scientific approaches can be communicated and integrated.     

香溪河梯级小水电站对河流生态系统功能的影响

香溪河是长江三峡水库湖北省最大且靠近坝首的支流,干流全长94 km,流域面积为3099 km2,其水能资源丰富,自然落差达1540 m.以香溪河流域内的18座小水电站为研究对象,于2005年10月20日至11月1日分别对河流主要理化指标及生态系统功能(以附石藻叶绿素a浓度为代表)进行测量,分析其对梯级水电站建设的响应.结果 表明:5条河流(包括香溪河干流和4条主要支流)的空间异质性较大;从全流域来看,各主要理化因子如溶解氧、水深、浊度、流速等与附石藻叶绿素a含量相关性很高,但不同支流的主要影响因子各异,证明了流域空间异质性对研究小水电的影响具有重要作用;梯级小水电站建设对河流生态系统功能已产生显著影响,特别是在取水口下游的3号样点.由于取水造成的断流现象严重(采样时期,50％的电站出现断流,最长距离达3.2 km),因此在枯水期确定河流的最低生态需水量,是一个亟待解决的问题.从流域角度出发,通过多学科交叉手段研究小水电站建设如何与其他环境胁迫因子交互作用,如何共同影响河流生物多样性、生态系统结构、功能与服务.这将是流域水电站管理的重要抓手及解决途径,也是未来河流生态学的研究重点.     

论现代黄河的根治和发展

本文以科学发展观为指导,在充分肯定人民治黄60周年辉煌成就的基础上,明确指出了经验治水在治黄工作中的八大表现及其严重危害。其要害是没有抓住黄河水少沙多的主要矛盾为黄河增水,严重影响了沿黄经济的发展,造成黄河在国家的地位下降,在国家新一轮的国民经济协调发展规划中被边缘化。明确提出了新世纪黄河治理的三大任务是固定河口、稳定河势、增水复航。提出应立足中国地理的实际,南水北调东、中、西三线每年为黄河增水1 000亿m3的目标,黄河以北的水问题由黄河解决。从五个方面论述了解放思想、更新观念,彻底实现经验治黄向科技治黄的转变。采取科技治黄的措施,完成三大治黄任务,在新中国第二个甲子,我们看到的将是一条浩浩荡荡、航运船如织的黄河;一条蓬勃发展、浴火新生的黄河经济带,黄淮海平原将发展成中国最大的天府之国。     

Salinity evolution of the Tigris River

Major modifications regulating the Tigris River, originated in the 1940s and continuing to the present, have resulted in changes in salinity in the system over time and in different portions of the river course. The increase in salinity is due to decreases in stream discharge due to dams, water management structures such as the Lake Tharthar system, irrigation return flow, and soluble minerals in the basin. This research documents the increase and evaluates the causes of the salinity increase of the river from predevelopment to present using published and previously unavailable data. The predevelopment salinity was under 600 ppm, since 1984 has exceeded the 1000 ppm threshold recommended for drinking water downstream of Amara. A minimum instream flow for the river is calculated at Baghdad and Kut at 185 cubic meters per second (cms), approximately 15% of the mean historical flow of the river, but above the lowest minimum flow recorded at 140 cms. Recommended salinity management options discussed include (1) eliminating Lake Tharthar as a water storage facility, (2) managing saline inflows from tributaries, and (3) employing a minimum instream flow for the river.     

城市化进程对长江下游平原河网水系格局演变的影响

以长江下游典型平原河网地区苏州市为例,基于1970s、1990s、2010s的遥感影像以及1960s、1980s、2010s水系数据,构建水系结构参数指标,重点探讨不同城市扩张方式对不同等级水系的干扰程度,以揭示城市空间扩展与水系结构演变的关系。结果表明:(1)城市扩展具有阶段性、趋向性,且受到自然环境和社会经济的影响与制约。(2)河网水系的改造和演化在不同城市化进程下表现出区域差异:近年来快速城市化区域的河网密度、水面率等水系结构指标变幅较大;80年代城市化区域变幅次之;进入高度城市化阶段的老城区,变化最小且稍有增加,其中近50年来河网密度在上述3个区域总体变幅为-21.06%、-16.23%以及1.88%。(3)河流结构发育受城市化进程显著影响,自然状态下河流长度与面积之比较大,河流结构更为稳定,而进入城市化阶段后,河流结构稳定性随之降低。该研究为城市化地区河流水系保护、城市规划及防洪减灾提供参考与理论支撑。     

长江涪江小河坝站水沙关系特性及其驱动因素研究

涪江流域是三峡入库水沙的主要来源地之一.基于涪江流域出口水文站1980～2018年的日径流、输沙率实测数据,从不同时间尺度分析水沙序列、水沙关系特性,并量化气象条件和人类活动两类驱动因素的影响.结果表明:(1)年尺度上,流域多年平均径流量、年输沙量呈显著下降趋势,以1997和2012年为转折年,呈典型的三阶段特性;月尺度上,径流和输沙量主要集中在7、8、9月;日尺度上,径流和输沙的集中度指数分别为0.5、0.91,表明"大水大沙"现象日益突出.(2)基于长时期序列的水沙关系曲线分析结果显示,外界影响因子(a)呈显著上升趋势,河流输沙能力因子(b)呈显著下降趋势;基于洪水场次事件的水沙环路曲线分析结果显示,顺时针和逆时针环路为两类主要的C-Q环路类型,分别呈下降和上升趋势,表明人类活动因素的增加和河流输沙能力的降低.(3)人类活动因素是影响涪江流域水沙变化的主要驱动因素,对径流和产沙量的贡献率占到86％和97％以上.以上结果可为长江流域水沙资源管理提供基础数据和科学依据.     

近61年来长江荆南三口水系连通性演变特征

基于1955～2016年不同时期的长江荆南三口水系相关数据，从水系水力连通性强度、水系连通度和水系连通性水平三视角分析研究区水系连通变化过程。结果表明：2016年与1955年相比,（1）区域的水文连通性呈现下降的趋势，但变化幅度不大;(2)水系连通环度α、节点连接率β、水系连通度γ分别减少了45.45%、10.8%、8.46%，节点连接率β下降得最为明显；（3）基于水系自然社会功能的水系连通性（E）和基于水流阻力与水文过程（F）这两种水系连通性评价方法，联合评价了荆南三口水系连通性,两种结果均显示，研究区水系连通性均呈下降趋势，由1955年的0.2367和0.3434依次下降到2016年的0.1588、0.2517。该研究可为该地区实施河湖水系连通工程,修复河流生态系统提供理论参考。