Towards an Integrated Approach to Natural Hazards Risk Assessment Using GIS: With Reference to Bushfires

This paper develops a GIS-based integrated approach to risk assessment in natural hazards, with reference to bushfires. The challenges for undertaking this approach have three components: data integration, risk assessment tasks, and risk decision-making. First, data integration in GIS is a fundamental step for subsequent risk assessment tasks and risk decision-making. A series of spatial data integration issues within GIS such as geographical scales and data models are addressed. Particularly, the integration of both physical environmental data and socioeconomic data is examined with an example linking remotely sensed data and areal census data in GIS. Second, specific risk assessment tasks, such as hazard behavior simulation and vulnerability assessment, should be undertaken in order to understand complex hazard risks and provide support for risk decision-making. For risk assessment tasks involving heterogeneous data sources, the selection of spatial analysis units is important. Third, risk decision-making concerns spatial preferences and/or patterns, and a multicriteria evaluation (MCE)-GIS typology for risk decision-making is presented that incorporates three perspectives: spatial data types, data models, and methods development. Both conventional MCE methods and artificial intelligence-based methods with GIS are identified to facilitate spatial risk decision-making in a rational and interpretable way. Finally, the paper concludes that the integrated approach can be used to assist risk management of natural hazards, in theory and in practice.     

Quantifying natural resource injuries and ecological service reductions: challenges and opportunities

The natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) provisions of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) and the Oil Pollution Act (OPA) are complex and have been difficult to implement. The complexity and difficulty in implementation arise both from the assessment procedures specified in agency NRDA guidance and from the limited ability of ecologists to quantify impacts of hazardous substances on natural resources. This paper explores the scientific aspects of NRDA implementation, and discusses conceptual and methodological relationships between NRDA and the much broader field of ecological risk assessment (ERA). We discuss three critical components of the NRDA assessment approach: measuring natural resource injuries and reductions in resource services; evaluating causality; and establishing baseline conditions. We identify (1) specific approaches drawn from ERA practice that could improve each of these components, and (2) research needs and institutional changes that may improve the ability of the NRDA process to achieve its stated objectives. We recommend the acceleration of the ongoing dialogue among NRDA practitioners from the Trustee and PRP communities as a first step toward resolving the procedural and technical deficiencies of the NRDA process.     

Probe into the method of regional ecological risk assessment-a case study of wetland in the Yellow River Delta in China

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is a new field of study for evaluating the risks associated with a possible eco-environmental hazard under uncertainty. Regional ERA is more complex than general ERA, as it requires that risk receptors, risk sources, risk exposure, uncertainty and especially spatial heterogeneity all be taken into account. In this paper, a five-step process of regional ERA is developed and tested through a wetland case study in the Yellow River Delta in China. First, indices and formulas are established for measuring degrees of ecological risk and damage to ecosystems. Using a combination of remote sensing data, historical records and survey data, and with the assistance of GIS techniques, the indices and formulas are then applied to the wetland in the study area. On the basis of the assessment results, we propose a number of countermeasures for the various risk zones in the Yellow River Delta.     

A paradigm for ecological risk assessment

The 1983 National Academy of Sciences paradigm for conducting human health risk assessment is considered with respect to ecological risk assessment. This four-step paradigm fails to capture key intrinsic differences between the two types of analysis, specifically: identity of risk targets and receptors; identity of the appropriate level of ecological organization at which the risk is expressed; variability of endpoint with respect to risk receptor; and the existence ofrisk cascades through ecological feedback loops. We propose an alternative paradigm that includes a preliminary step,receptor identification, in which chemical partitioning is combined with a conceptual model of the ecosystem to identify appropriate risk targets. In addition, we propose formal inclusion ofendpoint identification and explicit consideration of risk cascades in arelationship assessment in which interactive feedback loops are considered in an iterative process. The proposed paradigm preserves the steps of hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response assessment (renamedresponse assessment) and risk characterization, although specific modifications are recommended.     

Natech风险研究:现状、理论及展望

由自然灾害引发的工业企业环境安全事故又称为自然灾害诱发的技术事故(Natech).我国是工业大国,重化工业是我国的主导产业之一;同时我国还是世界上自然灾害严重的国家之一,Natech风险不容忽视.开展Natech风险识别、评估和管理研究,有助于我国Natech风险管理体系的完善,防范和降低区域Natech风险.目前,我国Natech风险基础研究尚处于起步阶段,难以支撑我国Natech风险防控实践.本文从Natech风险发生机制、风险评估、风险感知与最大可接受风险水平、风险管理体系等四个方面回顾了国内外Natech风险研究现状,初步梳理了Natech风险的基本理论,并对我国未来Natech风险的研究方向进行了展望,为我国Natech风险研究领域的发展提供参考.     

Critical Risk Indicators (CRIs) for the electric power grid: a survey and discussion of interconnected effects

The electric power grid is a critical societal resource connecting multiple infrastructural domains such as agriculture, transportation, and manufacturing. The electrical grid as an infrastructure is shaped by human activity and public policy in terms of demand and supply requirements. Further, the grid is subject to changes and stresses due to diverse factors including solar weather, climate, hydrology, and ecology. The emerging interconnected and complex network dependencies make such interactions increasingly dynamic, posing novel risks, and presenting new challenges to manage the coupled human–natural system. This paper provides a survey of models and methods that seek to explore the significant interconnected impact of the electric power grid and interdependent domains. We also provide relevant critical risk indicators (CRIs) across diverse domains that may be used to assess risks to electric grid reliability, including climate, ecology, hydrology, finance, space weather, and agriculture. We discuss the convergence of indicators from individual domains to explore possible systemic risk, i.e., holistic risk arising from cross-domain interconnections. Further, we propose a compositional approach to risk assessment that incorporates diverse domain expertise and information, data science, and computer science to identify domain-specific CRIs and their union in systemic risk indicators. Our study provides an important first step towards data-driven analysis and predictive modeling of risks in interconnected human–natural systems.

     

GIS-based Probability Assessment of Natural Hazards in Forested Landscapes of Central and South-Eastern Europe

We assessed the probability of three major natural hazards—windthrow, drought, and forest fire—for Central and South-Eastern European forests which are major threats for the provision of forest goods and ecosystem services. In addition, we analyzed spatial distribution and implications for a future oriented management of forested landscapes. For estimating the probability of windthrow, we used rooting depth and average wind speed. Probabilities of drought and fire were calculated from climatic and total water balance during growing season. As an approximation to climate change scenarios, we used a simplified approach with a general increase of pET by 20%. Monitoring data from the pan-European forests crown condition program and observed burnt areas and hot spots from the European Forest Fire Information System were used to test the plausibility of probability maps. Regions with high probabilities of natural hazard are identified and management strategies to minimize probability of natural hazards are discussed. We suggest future research should focus on (i) estimating probabilities using process based models (including sensitivity analysis), (ii) defining probability in terms of economic loss, (iii) including biotic hazards, (iv) using more detailed data sets on natural hazards, forest inventories and climate change scenarios, and (v) developing a framework of adaptive risk management.     

洪水灾害风险评价研究综述

洪水灾害是当今世界最严重的自然灾害之一，带来了巨大的人员伤亡和经济损失。洪水灾害风险评价是科学有效地防洪减灾的前提和基础。文章对洪水灾害风险相关概念进行了界定，从气象、水文水力、社会经济、遥感与GIS和土地利用5个方面对洪水灾害风险评价的常用方法进行了评述，并列出了常用的评价因子。最后指出了未来研究的可能发展方向。     

Towards the ecotourism: A decision support model for the assessment of sustainability of mountain huts in the Alps

This paper studies mountain hut infrastructure in the Alps as an important element of ecotourism in the Alpine region. To improve the decision-making process regarding the implementation of future infrastructure and improvement of existing infrastructure in the vulnerable natural environment of mountain ecosystems, a new decision support model has been developed. The methodology is based on qualitative multi-attribute modelling supported by the DEXi software. The integrated rule-based model is hierarchical and consists of two submodels that cover the infrastructure of the mountain huts and that of the huts’ surroundings. The final goal for the designed tool is to help minimize the ecological footprint of tourists in environmentally sensitive and undeveloped mountain areas and contribute to mountain ecotourism. The model has been tested in the case study of four mountain huts in Triglav National Park in Slovenia. Study findings provide a new empirical approach to evaluating existing mountain infrastructure and predicting improvements for the future. The assessment results are of particular interest for decision makers in protected areas, such as Alpine national parks managers and administrators. In a way, this model proposes an approach to the management assessment of mountain huts with the main aim of increasing the quality of life of mountain environment visitors as well as the satisfaction of tourists who may eventually become ecotourists.     

Empirical assessment of debris flow risk on a regional scale in Yunnan province,southwestern China

Adopting the definition suggested by the United Nations, a risk model for regional debris flow assessment is presented. Risk is defined as the product of hazard and vulnerability, both of which are necessary for evaluation. A Multiple-Factor Composite Assessment Model is developed for quantifying regional debris flow hazard by taking into account eight variables that contribute to debris flow magnitude and its frequency of occurrence. Vulnerability is a measure of the potential total losses. On a regional scale, it can be measured by the fixed asset, gross domestic product, land resources, population density, as well as the age, education, and wealth of the inhabitants. A nonlinear power-function assessment model that accounts for these indexes is developed. As a case study, the model is applied to compute the hazard, vulnerability and risk for each prefecture of the Yunnan province in southwestern China.     

Development of community of practice to support quantitative risk assessment for synthetic biology products: contaminant bioremediation and invasive carp control as cases

Synthetic biology has the potential for a broad array of applications. However, realization of this potential is challenged by the paucity of relevant data for conventional risk assessment protocols, a limitation due to to the relative nascence of the field, as well as the poorly characterized and prioritized hazard, exposure, and dose–response considerations associated with the development and use of synthetic biology-derived organisms. Where quantitative risk assessment approaches are necessarily to fulfill regulatory requirements for review of products containing genetically modified organisms, this paper reviews one potential avenue for early-stage quantitative risk assessment for biosafety considerations of synthetic biology organism deployment into the environment. Building from discussion from a March 2018 US Army Engineer Research and Development Center workshop on developing such quantitative risk assessment for synthetic biology, this paper reviews the findings and discussion of workshop participants. This paper concludes that, while synthetic biology risk assessment and governance will continue to refine and develop in the coming years, a quantitative framework that builds from existing practice is one potentially beneficial option for risk assessors that must contend with the technology’s limited hazard characterization or exposure assessment considerations in the near term.     

Climate change in mountain regions: how local communities adapt to extreme events

This paper examines how local communities adapt to climate change and how governance structures can foster or undermine adaptive capacity. Climate change policies, in general, and disaster risk management in mountain regions, in particular, are characterised by their multi-level and multi-sectoral nature during formulation and implementation. The involvement of numerous state and non-state actors at local to national levels produces a variety of networks of interaction and communication. The paper argues that the structure of these relational patterns is critical for understanding adaptive capacity. It thus proposes an expanded concept of adaptive capacity that incorporates (horizontal and vertical) actor integration and communication flow between these actors. The paper further advocates the use of formal social network analysis to assess these relational patterns. Preliminary results from research on adaptation to climate change in a Swiss mountain region vulnerable to floods and other natural hazards illustrate the conceptual and empirical significance of the main arguments.     

Evaluation of Environmental Aspects Significance in ISO 14001

The methodological framework set by standards ISO 14001 and ISO 14004 gives only general principles for environmental aspects assessment, which is regarded as one of the most critical stages of implementing environmental management system. In Estonia, about 100 organizations have been certified to the ISO 14001. Experience obtained from numerous companies has demonstrated that limited transparency and reproducibility of the assessment process serves as a common shortcoming. Despite rather complicated assessment schemes sometimes used, the evaluation procedures have been largely based on subjective judgments because of ill-defined and inadequate assessment criteria. A comparison with some similar studies in other countries indicates a general nature of observed inconsistencies. The diversity of approaches to the aspects’ assessment in concept literature and to the related problems has been discussed. The general structure of basic assessment criteria, compatible with environmental impact assessment and environmental risk analysis has also been outlined. Based on this general structure, the article presents a tiered approach to help organize the assessment in a more consistent manner.     

山水景观型自然旅游地自然旅游资源评价--以江苏省10个山水景观型自然旅游地为例

界定了6种要素来评价山水景观型自然旅游地自然旅游资源的整体吸引力:周边的自然吸引物聚集体、自然吸引物聚集体、可进入性、旅游基础设施、当地社区与区域环境、环境损害程度评价,并运用层次分析法对这6种要素进行了权重赋值,对每一种评价要素又设定了若干评价因子.在此基础上,构建了山水景观型自然旅游地自然旅游资源评价的等级结构,并以江苏省10个山水景观型自然旅游地为例进行了实证研究.     

黄河中上游能源化工区重点产业发展战略生态风险评价

结合黄河中上游能源化工区重点产业发展战略生态风险宏观性、综合性、复杂性的特点,论文以生态风险景观评价方法及3S技术等为研究手段,综合考虑重点产业发展战略人为风险源及自然风险源,以生态风险受体和终点选择、风险源分析、暴露危害分析、生态风险综合评价及生态风险分区为评价步骤,揭示了重点产业发展战略潜在生态风险空间分异特征。研究结果表明：黄河中上游重点产业战略实施区可划分为三类生态风险监控区,生态风险重点监控区自然风险源分布集中,重点产业人为风险源和自然风险源交织在一起,极易发生生态风险放大效应,生态风险次重点监控区自然生态风险源分布较单一,局部重点产业人为风险源强度增强,将增加区域生态风险水平,生态风险监控区自然生态风险源分布范围较小,潜在生态风险水平相对较低。论文探索了战略环评生态风险评价方法和评价思路,为国内重点产业发展战略生态风险评价提供了借鉴。     

Incompatible Land Uses and the Topology of Cumulative Risk

The extensive literature on environmental justice has, by now, well defined the essential ingredients of cumulative risk, namely, incompatible land uses and vulnerability. Most problematic is the case when risk is produced by a large aggregation of small sources of air toxics. In this article, we test these notions in an area of Southern California, Southeast Los Angeles (SELA), which has come to be known as Asthmatown. Developing a rapid risk mapping protocol, we scan the neighborhood for small potential sources of air toxics and find, literally, hundreds of small point sources within a 2-mile radius, interspersed with residences. We also map the estimated cancer risks and noncancer hazard indices across the landscape. We find that, indeed, such large aggregations of even small, nondominant sources of air toxics can produce markedly elevated levels of risk. In this study, the risk profiles show additional cancer risks of up to 800 in a million and noncancer hazard indices of up to 200 in SELA due to the agglomeration of small point sources. This is significant (for example, estimates of the average regional point-source-related cancer risk range from 125 to 200 in a million). Most importantly, if we were to talk about the risk contour as if they were geological structures, we would observe not only a handful of distinct peaks, but a general “mountain range” running all throughout the study area, which underscores the ubiquity of risk in SELA. Just as cumulative risk has deeply embedded itself into the fabric of the place, so, too, must intervention seek to embed strategies into the institutions and practices of SELA. This has implications for advocacy, as seen in a recently initiated participatory action research project aimed at building health research capacities into the community in keeping with an ethic of care.     

Assessing the Effectiveness of a Constructed Arctic Stream Using Multiple Biological Attributes

Objective assessment of habitat compensation is a central yet challenging issue for restoration ecologists. In 1997, a 3.4-km stream channel, designed to divert water around an open pit diamond mine, was excavated in the Barrenlands region of the Canadian Arctic to create productive stream habitat. We evaluated the initial success of this compensation program by comparing multiple biological attributes of the constructed stream during its first three years to those of natural reference streams in the area. The riparian zone of the constructed stream was largely devoid of vegetation throughout the period, in contrast to the densely vegetated zones of reference streams. The constructed stream also contained lower amounts of woody debris, coarse particulate organic matter (CPOM), and epilithon; had lower coverage by macrophytes and bryophytes; and processed leaf litter at a lower rate than reference streams. Species richness and densities of macroinvertebrates were consistently lower in the constructed stream compared to natural streams. This contributed to differences in macroinvertebrate assemblage structure throughout the period, although assemblages showed some convergence by year 3. The effectiveness of the constructed stream to emulate natural streams varied somewhat depending on the biological attribute being evaluated. Assessments based on individual attributes showed that minimal to moderate levels of similarity between the constructed stream and natural streams were achieved. A collective assessment of all biological and ecosystem attributes suggested that the constructed stream was not a good surrogate for natural streams during these first years. Additional time would be required before many characteristics of the constructed stream would resemble those of reference streams. Because initial efforts to improve fish habitat in the constructed stream focused on physical structures (e.g., weirs, vanes, rock, groins), ecological factors limiting fish growth were not considered and likely constrained success. We suggest that a greater focus on organic characteristics and vegetation within the stream and its riparian zone could have accelerated compensation. The addition of woody debris and CPOM, combined with planting of shrubs and herbs along the stream, should provide a source of allochthonous matter for the biotic community while large cobble and boulders should improve the physical stability of stream system, protecting its organic components.