A “measurable” definition of sustainable development based on closed cycles of resources and its application to energy systems

Human society consumes resources that it is not able to reproduce. Human activities are still based on “open cycles,” starting from a condition of natural environmental balance and reaching an environmental imbalance. The challenging scope of scientific and technological research towards sustainability appears clear if it is based on this analysis: to find development systems based on “closed cycles” of resources. The challenging objective of realizing closed cycles leads to a definition of sustainability that indicates the path to sustainable development, as well as stating the general principle. It also provides a key to the qualitative measurement of sustainability. This means that the sustainability level of a system can be measured by measuring its capacity to avoid the consumption of resources. Zero consumption is a necessary condition for sustainability, and brings about as a side effect the highly desired “zero-waste” result. Materials entering the proposed endless scheme pass through the process of usefulness without losing their capacity to feed the system again after being used. Thus, the concept of “consumption” itself is replaced by one of “use” when resources are inserted into closed loops capable of feeding human development. The application of the closed cycle sustainability criterion particularly displays its feasibility, and a theoretical guiding role, in the energy sector. Energy vectors such as hydrogen and electricity enable the closure of the energy resources loop by effectively approaching the objective of “zero consumption” (and the side result of “zero waste”) through already demonstrated technological solutions.     

Defining climate-change victims

This article introduces the concept of “climate-change victims” and classifies categories of threats and groups of people who would be vulnerable to and victimized by human-induced climate change. (The full, correct wording is “human-induced climate-change victims”, but we will use just “climate-change victims” in the rest of the article.) It offers a definition with three levels of climate-change victimization and differentiates “climate-change victims” from “natural-disasters victims” and from “climate-change migrants”. The article sets an agenda for a new type of victimhood and could lead to further research on possible prevention, accountability measures, environmental tribunals, and compensation mechanisms to recompense climate-change victims.     

Remarks on fair wealth accumulation in Russia

The paper addresses the topic of wealth accumulation in Russia. This phenomenon plays an important role for the understanding and forecasting the future economic and social development of the country. The “westernized” paradigm calls for hard honest work during the life and approves getting a reward in a form of wealth in the end. When brought to Russia, this paradigm faces the orthodox traditions and rules together with the post-soviet mental patterns. In this paper, we consider how the pattern “first accumulate wealth, then consume it” competes with its opposition, the pattern “first consume wealth, then accumulate it” in Russia. We base our discussion on the consumers’ simple optimization problem, which exhibits a bifurcation between those two patterns depending on the relation between the consumption “impatience” and the wealth growth rate. We also suggest a framework to model the phenomenon of unfair wealth through impulse type of wealth development.     

Social cost of environmental pollution and application of counter measures through clean development mechanism: in the context of developing countries

The developing countries i.e., the non-Annex-I countries (parties to the Kyoto Protocol but not responsible to any reduction target yet) in the Kyoto Protocol whose economies are in transition are also allowed to reduce GHG emissions. Among these, the countries that have accepted the Kyoto Protocol may be benefited from CDM projects to promote sustainable development. The developed countries i.e., the Annex-I countries (that have signed the Kyoto Protocol & are responsible to have specific GHG emission reduction target) or the investing countries, in return, have privilege to purchase CER credits (in units equivalent to one tonne of CO₂ gas emission reduction) to meet the emission target as specified in the Kyoto Protocol. The key step in understanding about CDM is to grasp the concept of “baseline” and “additionality”. The “Baseline” is the emissions level that would have existed if a CDM project had not happened. The feature of an approved CDM project is that the planned reductions would not occur without the additional incentive provided by emission reduction credits; this concept is known as “Additionality”. According to environmental additionality concept, baseline emission minus project emission is equal to emissions reduction. “Investment Additionality,” ultimately rejected during negotiation of the “Marrakech Accords” and “Financial Additionality,” are the two important concepts. The concept of trading of CER matches to the idea of Pigovian tax (equal to the negative externality and which is considered one of the “traditional” means of bringing a modicum of market forces) in Economics, making pollution more costly to the polluter, as the polluters have negative cost since they save money by polluting; hence, there are supposed negative externalities associated with the market activity. Economic theory predicts that in an economy where the cost of reaching mutual agreement between parties is high and where pollution is diffuse, Pigovian tax will be an efficient way to promote the public interest and will lead to an improvement of the quality of life measured by the Genuine Progress Indicator and other human economic indicators, as well as higher gross domestic product growth. We can seek a level of pollution such that the marginal savings (MS) to one polluting unit from pollution (−MC) is equal to marginal damage (MD) from pollution over the entire population, since pollution is a public bad i.e., MS (x*) = ∑MD_i (x*) where ∑D_i (x) is the total damage. Though the responsibility of reduction in emission does not lie on the non-Annex-I countries, still effort of maintaining global emission balance can be expected equally from developed and developing countries. The responsibilities of Kyoto Protocol are (a) to reduce global GHG emissions, (b) to bring about sustainable development in the developing countries lie on above two groups since its effect on February 16, 2005. Different polluters have different costs of pollution control. The least costly way of controlling pollution from various sources that reflects different costs of pollution control making the set of environmental regulations to achieve the emission target at the lowest cost makes the regulation cost-effective. Though efficiency is not attainable for many regulations, cost-effectiveness is attainable.     

Mapping the global supply and demand structure of rice

Rice plays a major role in the global supply and demand for sustainable food production. The constraints of maintaining sustainable rice production are closely linked to the relationship between the distribution patterns of human activity on the planet and economic growth. Global patterns of rice production can be mapped by using various criteria linked to domestic income, population patterns, and associated satellite brightness data of rice-producing regions. Prosperous regions have more electric lighting, and there are documented correlations between gross domestic product (GDP) and nighttime light. We chose to examine global rice production patterns on a geographical basis. For the purposes of this study, each country is considered to be made up of regions, and rice production is discussed in terms of regional distribution. A region is delineated by its administrative boundaries; the number of regions where rice is produced is about 13,839. We used gridded spatial population distribution data overlain by nocturnal light imagery derived from satellite imagery. The resultant relationship revealed a correlation between regional income (nominal values of GDP were used) and rice production in the world. The following criteria were used to examine the supply and demand structure of rice. Global rice consumption = “caloric rice consumption per capita per day” multiplied by “regional population values”. Regional rice yields = “country-based production” divided by “harvested area” (multiple harvests are taken into account). Regional rice production = “regional harvested areas” multiplied by “rice yield values”. We compared regional rice consumption and production values according to these methods. Analysis of the data sets generated a map of rice supply and demand. Inter-regional shipping costs were not accounted for. This map can contribute to the understanding of food security issues in rice-producing regions and to estimating potential population values in such regions.     

Soil erosion tolerance and water runoff control: minimum environmental standards

Council Regulations (EC) No 1257/1999 and the EU Soil Thematic Strategy give great importance to soil and land conservation to develop knowledge driven governance for rural development. In the hilly areas of Italy cultivated intensively, and especially in the ones devoted to viticulture, agricultural practices determine high loss of soil with consequent degradation of the soil resource. In addition to it, offsite effects of soil erosion can be unsustainable, due to sediment transfer to the channel network and infrastructures. In order to achieve a sustainable rural development there is a need for tools and instruments to allow European regional administrations, to develop, implement, manage and monitor rural development plans. To counteract the environmental threats intensified by agricultural activity, the environmental functions “soil erosion control” and “water runoff control” were investigated in the Chianti area by using GIS. To determine the EMR (Environmental Minimum Requirements) values for soil erosion the “regeneration” capability of soils was considered, and the value of estimated soil loss was compared with the value of soil reformation. A scenario analysis was also performed to evaluate the effectiveness of the agroenvironmental measure “grass cover” in reducing erosion. The concept of tolerable erosion based on soil productivity and soil reformation rate only is reductive and off-site effects of soil erosion should be also taken into account. For this reason, it was proposed to extend the concept of hydrogeological risk to soil erosion by implementing the notion of soil erosion tolerance (T) with the new concept of environmental risk of soil erosion (ERSE). The new ERSE index takes into account all the in- and off-farm externalities of soil erosion. For this reason, it can be considered an aggregated environmental indicator that enables policy makers to evaluate the impacts of soil erosion by following an holistic approach.     

Technology transfer insights for new climate regime

The purpose of technology transfer under the UNFCCC Article 4.5 is to “…promote, facilitate, and finance as appropriate the transfer of, or access to, environmentally sound technologies and know how to other Parties particularly Developing Country parties to enable them to implement the provisions of the Convention.” The key challenge in this respect is that low-carbon sustainable technologies need to be adopted both by developed as well as developing countries. However, this paper focuses on the process of technology transfer to developing countries to allow them to move quickly to environmentally sound and sustainable practices, institutions and technologies. In the above framework, this paper reviews key aspects of technology transfer from a range of perspectives in the literature and discusses insights from this literature for the transfer and innovation process needed to reduce global vulnerability to climate change in the context of current international activities based on the research undertaken by the EU sponsored ENTTRANS project.     

Macroethical systems and sustainability science

The Industrial Revolution and associated economic, demographic, technological and cultural changes have resulted in what many scientists are beginning to refer to as “the Anthropocene” – roughly translated, the Age of Humans. One response to this development is the nascent field of “sustainability science,” a multidisciplinary and systemic attempt to perceive and understand this new era. In doing so, however, methodologies and intellectual frameworks must be developed which extend beyond existing, dominantly reductionist, approaches, and are intended to address emergent characteristics of complex systems that integrate cultural and social systems, the engineered and built environment and natural systems. In the area of ethics, this requires developing a capability for “macroethics,” or ethical systems and processes capable of addressing issues arising from the emergent behavior of the complicated systems that characterize the Anthropocene.     

Design considerations for environmental sustainability in high density development: a case study of Hong Kong

This study has indicated that there is close relationship between development density and environmental quality; therefore, it is necessary to decide the form of development carefully beforehand. The form of development is shaped either by new development or urban renewal which is a major tactic nowadays adopted by the Hong Kong Government to improve the living condition of the citizens and the quality of the built environment. This study is limited to urban renewal and aims to find out the major urban design considerations for sustaining the environment. Through a questionnaire survey carried out in Hong Kong, the opinions of architects, planners, property development managers, and local citizens were sought and evaluated, and critical design factors for enhancing environmental sustainability of urban renewal projects are highlighted. The results derived from factor analysis indicated that certain design considerations should be incorporated for sustaining the urban environment. “Land Use Planning”, “Quality of Life”, “Conservation & Preservation”, “Integrated Design”, “Provision of Welfare Facilities”, and “Conservation of Existing Properties” were believed to be the significant underlying factors for achieving environmental sustainability of local urban renewal projects. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

从生态位到可持续发展位:概念的演进

生态位概念是生态学的一大基石，它主要有基础生态位、实际生态位和多维生态位三个基本概念。而由生态位概念发展来的生态位理论则是生态学的支柱。由于生态位概念揭示的是生态个体、种群和物种生存与竞争的普遍规律。因此。20世纪80年代以来。它开始被引入社会科学研究的领域。成为研究人类社会巨系统中的一个分析工具。由此也有了从生态位到发展位。再到可持续发展位的演进。由生态位概念发展而来的基于可持续发展理论的可持续发展位概念，是我们研究全球可持续发展体系的一个重要视角。由于构成可持续发展位的可持续发展因子的集合不同，形成了不同的“可持续发展位。概念，主要有可持续发展基本位，可持续发展理想位，可持续发展优势位和可持续发展关键位，它们共同成为“可持续发展位”的不同一性。     

Beyond fishermen’s tales: contributions of fishers’ local ecological knowledge to fish ecology and fisheries management

Studies investigating the local ecological knowledge (LEK) held by fishermen about the fishing resources have indicated that fishermen’s LEK may have the potential to improve fishery management, by providing new information about the ecology, behavior and abundance trends of fish and other aquatic animals. Our major aim is to undertake a brief review of published ethnoichthyological studies with a focus on coastal Brazilian fisheries and freshwater fisheries in both Brazil and Southeast Asia. Based on such review, we provide 29 hypotheses on fish ecology based on fishermen’s LEK and compare them with what is already known from the biological literature, using an arbitrary ‘likelihood’ measure: “Low likelihood” corresponded to unexpected hypotheses, which contradict existing biological data. “Medium likelihood” corresponded to hypotheses that could not be compared to available scientific knowledge. Hypotheses that agree with scientific data were considered as “High likelihood”. We therefore discuss these three categories of hypotheses about several distinct topics, such as migration, reproduction, feeding habits, abundance patterns, ecological relationships between fish and their predators, and fishing pressure. Our results may contribute to the fisheries management and research in the studied regions and other similar places, besides raising the interest of biologists to properly include fishermen’s LEK when planning and conducting fisheries surveys. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Impacts of climatic disasters in coastal Bangladesh: why does private adaptive capacity differ?

This paper quantitatively assesses the influences of various demographic and socio-economic factors, past adaptive behavioral factors, access to weather/climate information, and spatial/locational factors on coastal populations’ perceived adaptive capacity against major impacts of hydro-meteorological disasters on their livelihood. A total of 285 respondents from three coastal villages in Bangladesh were randomly interviewed between January and April 2009. Respondents rated their perceived adaptive capacity against 25 anticipated impacts of sea-level rise (SLR)-induced events on their livelihood. By employing the principal component analysis (PCA), perceived adaptive capacity was grouped into five major categories. Then, an adaptive capacity index for each of five major impacts, namely, “infrastructure damage and disrupted mobility,” “food and nutritional insecurity,” “low earning and higher cost of maintenance,” “loss of employment in offshore activities,” and “crisis of potable water and public health risk,” was prepared. How adaptive capacity against each of these major five categories of impacts differs due to the influence of various factors was assessed by employing the multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) technique. The MANOVAs show that age, sex, level of education, type of occupation, farmland holdings, past adaptive behavior against rainfall, salinity intrusion, freshwater crises, use of radio for weather information, and the distance of the homestead from the shoreline have varying levels of influence on respondents’ perceived adaptive capacity against each of the five major categories of impacts. Others factors have moderate to limited influences. The policy implication is that specific programs, rather than a generic one-size fits all program, must be initiated for enhancement of adaptive capacity against specific impacts.     

Formation of the resource concept in Japan: pre-war and post-war efforts in knowledge integration

The objective of this paper is to trace the evolution of the resource concept in modern Japan by highlighting key individuals who played major roles in communicating this idea to a wider audience during its formation and development between the 1910s and 1950s. Special attention will be paid to the effect of different historical contexts on interpretations of the term “resource”. The paper reveals how the integration of knowledge indispensable for achieving sustainability occurs. The orientation of resource policy was drastically different before and after World War II. In the pre-war period, the military government used the resource concept to create a comprehensive inventory of the nation’s military forces, and “resource” was thus a convenient term to neutralize the aggressive connotations of top-down military mobilization. After the turn to democratic principles in 1945, “resource” suddenly acquired a symbolic meaning as a means to serve the people. Despite these contrasts, however, pre and post-war resource concepts share a commonality in that the government acted as the centralizing force, providing a platform to integrate disparate knowledge under the resource concept. At a time when society itself is more prone to fragmentation, the resource concept, which played a significant role in unification in the past, should be re-examined. The history of the concept in Japan, particularly during the pre and post-war period up until the 1950s, contains a wealth of insights as to how this can be achieved.

The advancement of a mathematical model of sustainable development

Earth System Analysis was postulated as a theory by Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber in 1998 as a way to characterise the Earth System—the coupled relationship between the environment and humans. Within this theory is the notion of Geocybernetics—management of the Earth System in order to achieve strategies and mechanisms of co-evolution between the environment and humans. This is regarded as the concept and application of sustainable development. However, whilst fundamental definitions in Earth System Analysis are presented for the coupled relationship between the environment and humans, no such definitions exist for sustainable development within the Earth System context. Consequently, this paper presents a mathematical model of sustainable development that provides for the fundamental abstraction of the key concepts and parameters necessary for sustainable development to occur. The model utilises basic mathematics to detail these concepts and parameters, as well as the conditions required for sustainable development to occur. The model presented is, in some regards, a work in progress, and further refinements will be made given the nature of the research performed to this point, i.e. the fundamental mathematical definition of sustainable development and its application. However, the research conducted thus far has made it reasonable to communicate the findings made up to the present point. The paper also provides a brief example of the application of the model to an environmental impact assessment of a metro rail scheme in India, for the purpose of evaluating the level of sustainable development (if appropriate) for the project under consideration.     

The global systemic crisis and a new vision of sustainable human development

In this paper, the up-to-date global systemic problems are presented, and their major socioeconomic roots are identified (excessive consumerism, inadequacy of institutions, moral crisis). A novel approach to sustainable development, focused on the integrated ethical, spiritual, physical, intellectual and socioecological human development, instead of dominating consumerism and technocentrism, is proposed to prevent the systemic problems. Proportion of healthy population is proposed as the principal indicator of sustainable human development. Application of this indicator to specific country in comparison with the human development index is provided. The specific institutional (eco-centric institutions), economic (eco-taxation, changing consumption and production patterns) and technological (eco-efficiency, “green” energy) reforms are suggested as the necessary conditions of transition to sustainable human development, while human mentality, based on the eco-centric grounds (socioecological well-being), environmental and human health, justice and holistic human development is considered as its key condition that can be achieved through an appropriate social and educational policy.     

Ecological risk as a tool for evaluating the effects of offshore wind farm construction in the North Sea

Offshore wind power generation represents a chance to supply energy in a more sustainable way; however, the ecological risks associated with the construction and operation of offshore wind farms are still largely unknown. This paper uses the concept of ecological risk for analysing ecological changes during construction of offshore wind farms. “Ecological risk” is defined as the potentially reduced ability of providing ecosystem services. The ERSEM ecosystem model allows assessing ecological risk based on a number of selected variables (integrity indicators) and under the assumption that increased suspended matter concentration during construction of wind farms affects ecosystem functioning. We conclude that ecological risk is adequate to describe the effects of wind farm constructions, although the computation procedure still needs to be refined and the choice of indicators further optimised. In this context, the choice of indicators available in modelling as well as in monitoring time-series may offer the way forward.     

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE QUALITY OF THE ENVIRONMENT: TAKING STOCK

There is a long-standing debate on the relationship between economic development and environmental quality. From a sustainable development viewpoint there has been a growing concern that the economic expansion of the world economy will cause irreparable damage to our planet. In the last few years several studies have appeared dealing with the relationship between the scale of economic activity and the level of pollution. In particular, if we concentrate on local pollutants many empirical contributions have identified a bell-shaped curve linking per capita pollution to per capita GDP (in the case of global pollutants like CO₂ the evidence is less clear-cut). This behavior implies that, starting from low per capita income levels, per capita emissions or concentrations tend to increase but at a slower pace. After a certain level of income (which typically differs across pollutants) – the “turning point” – pollution starts to decline as income further increases. In analogy with the historical relationship between income distribution and income growth, the inverted-U relationship between per capita income and pollution has been termed “Environmental Kuznets Curve”. The purpose of this paper is not to provide an overview the literature: there are several survey papers around doing precisely that. We instead reconsider the explanations that have been put forth for its inverted-U pattern. We consider the literature from this perspective. In addition, without resorting to any econometric estimation, we consider whether simple data analysis can help to shed some light on the motives that can rationalize the Environmental Kuznets Curve. This paper is part of the research work being carried out by the Climate Change Modelling and Policy Unit at Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and has been prepared for the 2004–2005 ESRI Collaboration Project. The author is grateful to Nicola Cantore for skillful assistance.     

Storm surges: perspectives and options

This review paper attempts to summarize the scattered and fragmented knowledge about past and possible future changing storm-surge statistics using the particularly well-studied case of the North Sea as an example. For this region, a complete and robust analysis methodology has been developed in recent years. This methodology is based on dynamical and statistical models. Using the concept of dynamical downscaling, development during recent decades, when sufficiently good and homogeneous weather data exist, has been “reconstructed,” and scenarios of possible future change are described. “Localization” allows estimation of changes at specific sites, e.g., harbors. As local water-level statistics depend not only on climate variations but also on local modifications of the local bathymetry, new options for adaptation emerge. For the case of Hamburg, an option for such future adaptations is discussed.     

A normative model of balanced nature management

The risk of erroneous regulation in multilevel normative environmental chains, at the federal, regional, and lower levels, down to the corporate one, has been studied. This risk has been demonstrated to increase unacceptably rapidly in the framework of the existing system of “unconditional acceptance” of normative standards. To mend the situation, it is necessary to use the “conditional acceptance” model by regarding post hoc decisions made at higher levels as a priori ones at the next (lower) levels. A strategy of environmentally and economically balanced corporate regulation of nature management through minimization of the losses resulting from both excessive caution and breaching the existing regulations has been proposed. This system, combined with the European approach to nature conservation, requires that the “riskless” regulation should be abandoned and is expected to improve the parameters of nature management quality by three to four orders of magnitude.