铁路工程的战略环境评价

为保证铁路工程项目有效实施,必须前瞻性地考虑其实施及运营过程中的环境影响,从决策源头上控制环境污染的产生,对其开展战略环境评价.战略环境评价是促进铁路基础设施与环境协调发展的有效工具,是实现铁路工程可持续发展的关键环节.本文在对铁路工程决策进行生命过程及社会经济与环境效益分析的基础上,论述了对铁路工程进行战略环境评价的必要性,以保证从源头上控制环境影响及促进基础设施与环境的协调发展.以青藏铁路为例,在探讨青藏铁路施工期和运营期环境影响的基础上,建立战略环境评价的影响矩阵,明确青藏铁路工程施工期和运营期对生态环境、大气和水的直接和次生影响,并据此提出了减缓环境影响的调控措施.     

战略环境影响识别研究

环境影响因子识别是战略环境评价的基础内容之一.本文通过分析战略环境影响发生的2个战略根源和3类环境影响受体,提出战略环境影响发生机理.2个战略根源分别是战略缺陷和战略的"超域效应和外部性";3类环境影响受体包括全球可持续性因子、自然资源因子和当地环境质量因子.对环境影响因子识别、影响范围识别和时间跨度识别等3个方面的战略环境影响识别内容进行了研究,并对战略环境影响识别依据进行了分析,给出了可应用于战略环境评价的识别方法.同时,以上海市能源专项规划为例,进行战略环境影响因子与影响范围的识别,建立了能源专项规划的战略环境评价指标体系.     

广西能源战略新探索

本世纪前20年，我国的能源战略将着眼长远发展的目标，能源供应的发展方式将实现从以满足经济发展的基本需求为目标，向在满足需求的基础上重视环境效益的目标转变、实现经济、社会、环境的协调发展，在经济全球化以及中国加入WTO的背景下，我国能源结构将从单纯依赖国内资源的自我平衡模式，向参与国际市场能源平衡的模式转型，     

战略环境影响评价在我国发展中的思考

<正>战略环境影响评价制度将环境和发展联系在一起,是实施综合决策实现可持续发展的途径和手段,因而了解战略环境影响评价在我国发展中存在的问题是很有必要的。概述概念20世纪90年代后国内外学术界出现战略环境评价(SEA)这一术语,《环境科学大辞典》中曾明确指出:战略环境影响评价是在较大的时空尺度下开展的高层次的环境影响评价。可以理解为对政策、规划或计划及其替代方案的环境影响进行全面的评价过程。     

环境筛选矩阵在城市轨道交通规划环境影响评价中的应用

在城市轨道交通规划环境影响评价中,应用环境筛选的原理和方法,以规划目标、规划措施等规划行为和相关规划、社会经济环境、生态环境、污染环境等影响领域为阵列,建立环境筛选二级矩阵;分析了规划行为中的规划内容、规划目标、规划措施、规划缺陷和影响领域中的相关规划、背景环境;进而分析了轨道交通规划环境影响特征,识别了其对城市相关规划、社会经济环境、生态环境和污染环境的主要影响,提出了轨道交通规划环评的主要内容、环保选线要求和规划调整建议。     

我国区域经济发展与生态安全格局的空间耦合研究

课题在分析全国生态安全格局和区域经济及产业发展的基本格局的基础上,重点解析了我国生态安全功能区社会经济与生态环境耦合关系及其产业结构特征,并针对目前生态功能区存在的局部地区资源开发导致部分地区或流域性生态功能威胁以及生态本底退化等问题,从产业调整、环境准入和生态修复三个角度提出环境管控政策建议。     

规划环评中的环境承载力研究——以乌兰布和生态沙产业示范区为例

规划环境影响评价在规划编制和决策过程中对规划可能造成的环境影响进行分析、预测和评价,提出预防或减轻不良环境影响的对策和措施,协调经济增长、社会进步和环境保护的关系。环境承载力是规划环评的核心内容之一,对于确定规划项目是否与该地区的资源环境承载力相适应,解决社会经济和资源环境协调发展的问题有重要意义。本文以阿拉善左旗乌兰布和生态沙产业园区为例,系统论述了生态类型园区的规划环评中环境承载力分析方法和特点,为生态类园区规划环评提供科学依据,具有一定的理论和现实意义。     

我国石油消费现状及其战略思考

石油是支撑经济发展和国防现代化的基本能源之一。在当今国际社会中 ,石油已成为世界政治、经济、军事和外交斗争的特殊武器 ,成为一国经济发展、社会稳定以及国家安全的重要保障条件。我国目前石油供需形势严峻 ,主要表现为 :石油储量接替准备不足 ,老油田稳产面临严峻形势 ;需求增长过快 ;对外依存度较高 ;运输和贮存能力较小等方面。石油的安全及其保障问题关系到我国的经济安全和国家安全 ,因此 ,有必要研究我国的石油消费现状及发展战略。笔者针对我国的石油消费现状 ,分析了目前我国石油战略中存在的问题 ,探讨了我国的石油战略。     

规划环评中的水资源利用分析——以敖伦布拉格产业园区为例

规划环境影响评价在规划编制和决策过程中对规划可能造成的环境影响进行分析、预测和评价,提出预防或减轻不良环境影响的对策和措施,协调经济增长、社会进步和环境保护的关系。环境承载力是规划环评的核心内容之一,对于确定规划项目是否与该地区的资源环境承载力相适应,解决社会经济和资源环境协调发展的问题有重要意义。本文以内蒙古阿拉善敖伦布拉格产业园区总体规划为例,系统论述了规划环评中水资源承载力分析方法和特点,为工业园区规划环评提供科学依据,具有一定的理论和现实意义。     

从社会变革看我国事故频发的管理根源——价值缺陷导致的管理失灵分析

如何认识和解决我国事故高发问题始于20世纪90年代,至今仍未得到很好地解决,已成为社会广泛关注的焦点。笔者以探索事故高发的管理根源为目的,对我国目前事故高发问题即“安全管理的困惑”从不同方面、不同层次上的具体表现进行了分析,将其寓于我国社会经济变革的大背景进行认识,从安全管理的哲学层次和我国社会经济变革的发展中研讨“事故高发、频发”的管理根源,分别从安全科学理论、世界社会经济发展的历史以及安全管理层次及其相互联系的角度,对我国事故高发问题进行了全面论述,提出了哲学文化层次带来的问题是产生“管理困惑”的源头。从整体上来看,我国事故高发、频发的管理根源在于:社会经济变革条件下产生的,由价值缺陷导致的“管理失灵”。“管理失灵”是问题的表现形式和结果,社会经济变革产生的“价值缺陷”是问题的核心。     

战略导弹核武器系统人因工程应用研究

以战略导弹核武器系统的设计、生产、使用与维修为背景，分析了人为失误的定义、原因及分类，并根据模糊图理论，提出了一种评估人员可靠性的双向模糊图模型，并对人因工程学在战略导弹核武器系统的应用，提出了一些看法和建议。     

基于遗传算法的支持向量机预测有机物自燃点的研究

根据定量构效关系(QSPR)原理,研究自燃点(AIT)与其分子结构间的内在定量关系。以265种有机化合物作为样本集,随机选择238种作为训练集,27种作为测试集,用遗传算法(GA)进行变量选择,分别建立多元线性回归(MLR)模型和支持向量机(SVM)模型研究有机物的自燃点与其分子结构间的关系。通过分析,发现造成模型预测效果不佳的原因是试验数据本身存在问题。通过对2个模型的比较,结果为GA-SVM模型明显优于GA-MLR模型,说明自燃点与其分子结构间具有很强的非线性关系。     

Influence of ATD versus PMHS reference sensor inputs on computational brain response in frontal impacts to advanced combat helmet (ACH)

ABSTRACT

Objective: This study analyzed the influence of reference sensor inputs from anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs) versus postmortem human subjects (PMHSs) on simulations of frontal blunt impacts to the advanced combat helmet (ACH).

Methods: A rigid-arm pendulum was used to generate frontal impacts to ACHs mounted on ATDs and PMHS. An appropriately sized ACH was selected according to standard fitting guidelines. The National Operating Committee on Standards for Athletic Equipment (NOCSAE) head was selected for ATD tests due to shape features that enabled a realistic helmet fit. A custom procedure was used to mount a reference sensor internally near the center of gravity (CG) of the PMHS. Reference sensor data from the head CG were used as inputs for the Simulated Injury Monitor (SIMon). Brain responses were assessed with the cumulative strain damage measure set at 10%, or CSDM(10).

Results: Compared to ATD tests, PMHS tests produced 18.7% higher peak linear accelerations and 5.2% higher peak angular velocities. Average times to peak for linear accelerations were relatively similar between ATDs (5.5?ms) and PMHSs (5.8?ms). However, times to peak for angular velocities were higher by a factor of up to 3.4 for PMHSs compared to ATDs. Values for were also higher by a factor of up to 13.1 when PMHS inputs were used for SIMon.

Conclusions: The preliminary findings of this work indicate that small differences in ATD versus PMHS head kinematics could lead to large differences in strain-derived brain injury metrics such as CSDM.     

引气剂和聚丙烯纤维对高水材料性质的影响研究

为了改变高水材料的破坏特点,采用引气剂和聚丙烯纤维双掺对其进行改性。试验结果表明:随着引气剂掺量的增加,浆体的流动性逐渐降低,混合浆液失流时间延长,试块密度和单轴抗压强度逐渐减小;聚丙烯纤维的掺入,对浆体流动性、失流时间、引气率影响均较小。聚丙烯纤维最佳掺量为2 kg/m3,引气剂和聚丙烯纤维的掺入使硬化体的弹性模量略有减小,且使试块由脆性破坏转变为延性破坏,在保持整体不散的情况下,提高其压缩量。SEM观察表明:钙矾石在气泡壁上集中生成,聚丙烯纤维与基体的界面处有利于针状钙矾石的生成,从而使聚丙烯纤维更好地发挥增强增韧的作用。     

An experimental study of the interaction effects of incentive compensation,career ambition,and task attention on Chinese managers' strategic risk behaviors

Building on the person–pay interaction model, we developed and tested a model for the influence of managers' career ambition and task attention on their responses to incentive compensation under different conditions of firm performance. We argued that managers with greater career ambition and task attention will be more responsive to incentive compensation, thereby engaging in more strategic risk behaviors, such as strategic risk taking and strategic change. Results of our experiment using a managerial decision‐making game with a sample of Chinese managers partially supported this contingency perspective. Under the condition of performance decline, managers' career ambition only accentuated the positive relationship between incentive compensation and strategic change. By contrast, task attention strengthened the positive relationships between incentive compensation and both strategic risk taking and strategic change. However, under the condition of performance growth, neither managers' career ambition nor their task attention influenced their responses to incentive compensation. We discuss the implications for how organizational leaders can use incentive compensation to influence the strategic risk behaviors of managers. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nonlinear molecular based modeling of the flash point for application in inherently safer design

New chemical process design strategies utilizing computer-aided molecular design (CAMD) can provide significant improvements in process safety by designing chemicals with required target properties and the substitution of safer chemicals. An important aspect of this methodology concerns the prediction of properties given the molecular structure. This study utilizes one such emerging method for prediction of a hazardous property, flash point (FP), which is in the center of attention in safety studies. Using such a reliable data set comprising 1651 organic and inorganic chemicals, from 79 diverse material classes, and robust dynamic binary particle swarm optimization for the feature selection step resulted in the most efficient molecular features of the FP investigations. Apart from the simple yet precise five-parameter multivariate model, the FP nonlinear behavior was thoroughly investigated by a novel hybrid of particle swarm optimization and support vector regression. Besides, 195 missing experimental FPs of the DIPPR data set are predicted via the presented procedure.     

Automation design in advanced control rooms of the modernized nuclear power plants

This study evaluated the effects of levels of automation (LOAs) decisions in advanced control rooms of the modernized nuclear power plants. Following advancements in design of digitalized human–system interfaces (HSIs), the roles of human operators have changed significantly. Negative performance and safety consequences may occur as a result of these changes. These problems are viewed as the out-of-the-loop (OOTL) performance problems. This study conducted an experiment to compare the effects of different LOAs under different operating procedures on operating performance. Experimental results indicated that blended decision-making (level 6 LOA) generates the lowest mental workload. Furthermore, the pattern of SA observed in this study is found better SA at intermediate LOA and poorer SA at low level of automation and full automation. Subjective rating results suggest that LOAs distribute the roles of option generation, and selection between human and/or computer servers which significantly impacts automated system performance. This study provides a direction for the HSI designers in nuclear power plants (NPPs). Additionally, based on results obtained by this study, the user interfaces of PCTRAN system and the alarm reset system should be improved to ensure safe operation of NPPs.     

单板层积梁弯曲破坏的试验研究与分析

在万能力学试验机上测试由高频热压方法制造的桦木和椴木单板层积梁的密度、静曲强度(MOR)、弹性模量(MOE)和水平剪切强度等力学性质;讨论LVL(单板层积材)梁受弯曲、水平剪切载荷时的主要破坏形式并得出相关结论。测试结果表明,在该试验条件下,桦木和椴木LVL梁具有较大的密度、MOR和较高的MOE。其主要物理力学性能受树种的影响较大,桦木LVL梁的主要性能均优于椴木LVL梁。当LVL梁受弯曲破坏时,其主要破坏形式为整体断裂破坏、开裂破坏以及混合破坏等3种;受水平剪切应力破坏时,以基材剪切破坏和胶层剪切破坏两种形式为主。