Development of double-variable seismic fragility functions for oil refinery piping systems

Seismic risk assessment of piping systems, as a group of vulnerable facilities in oil refineries, is mostly based on the single-variable fragility curves. However, it is well-known that the fragility curves, developed based on a single intensity measure (IM), are not much reliable. For increasing the confidence level of seismic risk assessment of piping systems, it was tried, in this study, to develop double-variable fragility functions by using peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) together as the IMs. For this purpose, the piping system of the ISOMAX Unit of Tehran oil refinery was considered, and modeled by a powerful finite element analysis program under various loadings, including gravity, pressure and seismic loads. For seismic analyses 157 set of three-component earthquake records were employed, with PGA and PGV values varying respectively from around 0.1 g–0.6 g and 10 cm/s to 60 cm/s. By using the nonlinear time histories analyses results, two single-IM fragility curves and one double-IM fragility surface were developed based on the probability of exceedance of the maximum created stress, considered as the ‘damage index’, from the allowable stress. The results indicate that using PGA and PGV jointly, as the IMs in the development of fragility functions, provides more reliable vulnerability estimations. For example, the single-IM fragility function gives, for PGA = 0.2 g, a probability of exceedance of 75%, while by using the double-IM fragility function this probability may change from 30% for PGV = 10 cm/s to 95% for PGV = 60 cm/s.     

Seismic risk assessment of liquid overtopping in a steel storage tank equipped with a single deck floating roof

Major earthquakes have demonstrated that Natech events can be triggered by liquid overtopping in liquid storage tanks equipped with floating roofs. Thus, research on the dynamic behaviour of steel storage tanks with floating roofs is still required. In this paper, the seismic risk against liquid overtopping in a real steel storage tank with a floating roof was analysed using a simplified model that was validated by a refined finite element model based on the arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian approach. The simplified model utilizes the Lagrangian of a floating roof-fluid system and is capable of providing a response history of the floating roof. It was demonstrated that it could predict the maximum vertical displacement very accurately, while some differences were observed in the response history of vertical displacement. The computational time for a single response history analysis based on the simplified model amounted to a few minutes, which is significantly less demanding compared to hours required for response history analysis in the case of the refined FE model. The simplified model is thus appropriate for the seismic fragility analysis considering the overtopping limit state. It is shown that the fragility curves are significantly affected by the liquid filling level. The risk for liquid overtopping is quite high in the case of a full tank. However, by considering the variation of filling level during the year, the overtopping risk was observed reduced by approximately 30%. Alternatively, the approximate fragility analysis for the liquid overtopping can be performed by utilizing the Eurocode formula for the vertical displacement of liquid. This approach is straightforward, but the formula does not account for the higher mode effects, which may result in overestimated seismic intensity causing overtopping, as discussed in the paper.     

Seismic vulnerability of gas and liquid buried pipelines

Lifelines play a crucial and essential role in human life and in economic development. The resilience of those systems under extreme events as earthquakes is a primary requirement, especially when large amount of toxic and flammable material are transported.In this work, the seismic vulnerability of buried gas and liquid pipelines has been analyzed, starting from a large number of damage data to pipelines collected from post-earthquake reconnaissance reports.Seismic fragility formulations and threshold values for the earthquake intensity with respect to the release of content from different types of pipelines have been derived. The main outcome of the work is therefore a novel seismic assessment tool which is able to cover the needs of industrial risk assessment procedures and land use planning requirements.     

Seismic fragility analysis of a coupled tank-piping system based on artificial ground motions and surrogate modeling

The catastrophic consequences of recent NaTech events triggered by earthquakes highlighted the inadequacy of standard approaches to seismic risk assessment of chemical process plants. To date, the risk assessment of such facilities mainly relies on historical data and focuses on uncoupled process components. As a consequence, the dynamic interaction between process equipment is neglected. In response to this gap, researchers started a progressive integration of the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) risk assessment framework. However, a few limitations still prevent a systematic implementation of this framework to chemical process plants. The most significant are: (i) the computational cost of system-level simulations accounting for coupling between process equipment; (ii) the experimental cost for component-level model validation; (iii) a reduced number of hazard-consistent site-specific ground motion records for time history analyses.In response to these challenges, this paper proposes a recently developed uncertainty quantification-based framework to perform seismic fragility assessments of chemical process plants. The framework employs three key elements: (i) a stochastic ground-motion model to supplement scarcity of real records; (ii) surrogate modeling to reduce the computational cost of system-level simulations; (iii) a component-level model validation based on cost-effective hybrid simulation tests. In order to demonstrate the potential of the framework, two fragility functions are computed for a pipe elbow of a coupled tank-piping system.     

Seismic damage to pipelines in the framework of Na-Tech risk assessment

The structural integrity of pipelines undergone seismic waves is crucial for industrial installation and for the distributed transportation networks of gaseous and liquid fluids. However, it is nowadays proved that the definition of seismic vulnerability based on purely, structural-derived limit states or on return-to-service or even on the purely economic repair rate indications, is not sufficient for the holistic analysis of risks. On the other hand, detailed numerical studies based on full analyses (including fluid/soil/structure interaction) are too expensive for the aims of risk assessment and simplified methodologies are still needed.In this paper, a large database of earthquake-induced damage for steel and non-steel pipelines is presented. Each case was analyzed and collected from post-earthquake reconnaissance, seismic engineering reports and technical papers. The database may be adopted for the definition of specific vulnerability function (fragility curves), which are commonly implemented in multi-hazard analyses, and more in general for the assessment of Na-Tech risks (Natural events triggering Technological disasters).     

斜撑框架结构弹塑性地震反应计算分析

运用结构弹塑性时程分析的基本原理 ,针对钢筋混凝土斜撑框架结构的特点 ,编制了斜撑框架结构弹塑性时程分析程序。然后以工程中常用的 3种类型的斜撑框架结构为研究对象 ,对该种结构体系在地震波作用下的反应进行了计算 ,并对该种结构体系在地震波作用下的反应性能进行了分析。计算结果表明 :斜撑形式对斜撑框架结构的动力特性有较大影响 ,不同斜撑形式的斜撑框架结构在地震波作用下的反应特性有较大的不同。     

地下结构震害类型及机理研究

地下结构由于受到周围岩体或土体的约束 ,一直被认为具有良好的抗震性能。但是 ,随着地下结构数量的增多和地下结构震害的频繁出现 ,地下结构的震害问题日益受到世界各国地震工作者的高度重视 ,笔者通过对大量地下结构震害的分析研究 ,对地下结构震害进行了分类 ,并研究了震害的影响因素及机理 ,以期为地下结构的抗震设计提供科学依据和有益的参考。     

Adjusting for car occupant injury liability in relation to age, speed limit, and gender-specific driver crash involvement risk

It is well established that older drivers' fragility is an important factor associated with higher levels of fatal crash involvement for older drivers. There has been less research on age-related fragility with respect to the sort of minor injuries that are more common in injury crashes. This study estimates a quantity that is related to injury fragility: the probability that a driver or a passenger of that driver will be injured in crashes involving two cars. The effects of other factors apart from drivers' fragility are included in this measure, including the fragility of the passengers, the crashworthiness of cars driven, seatbelt use by the occupants, and characteristics of crashes (including configuration and impact speed). The car occupant injury liability estimates appropriately includes these factors to adjust risk curves by age, gender, and speed limit accounting for overrepresentation in crashes associated with fragility and these other factors.     

Seismic risk assessment of storage tanks in Turkish industrial facilities

In 1999, two earthquakes in northwest Turkey caused heavy damage to a large number of industrial facilities. This region is the most industrialized in the country, and heavy damage has a significant economic influence. Industrial storage tanks, ruptured by earthquakes, exascerbate damage through the spread of fire. Storage tanks are uniquely structured, tall cylindrical vessels, some supported by relatively short reinforced concrete columns. The main aim of this study is to evaluate the earthquake performance of Turkish industrial facilities, especially storage tanks in terms of earthquake resistance. Modeling a typical storage tank of an industrial facility helps to understand the structure’s seismic response. A model tank structure was modelled as a solid with lumped mass and spring systems. Performance estimation was done with 40 different earthquake data through nonlinear time history analyses. After the time history analyses, fragility analyses produced probabilistic seismic assessment for the tank model. For the model structure, analysis results were evaluated and compared. In the study, vulnerability of storage tanks in Turkey was determined and the probabilistic risk was defined with the results of the analysis.     

Societal risk acceptance criteria for gas distribution pipelines based on incident data from the United States

A significant number of pipeline operators use pipeline integrity management (PIM) to improve pipeline safety and reliability. Risk assessment is a critical step in PIM, because it determines the necessity of conducting the following steps in PIM for certain pipelines. Risk acceptance criteria are required in the process of risk assessment. Individual risk and societal risk are most frequently adopted as the two indicators of the risk acceptance criteria. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, quantitative societal risk acceptance criteria, especially for gas distribution pipelines, do not exit. The aim of this paper is to establish the societal risk acceptance criteria for gas distribution pipelines. Hence, FN curves were established using historical incident data from 2002 to 2017 provided by the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). Linear regression and the ALARP principle are used in evaluating the limits of the negligible line and intolerable line to obtain a graphical societal risk acceptance criterion for gas distribution pipelines. A line having a slope of −1.224, and an anchor point of (1, 8.413 × 10⁻⁷) is proposed as the negligible line. Further, the intolerable line has a slope of −1.224, and an anchor point of (1, 2.524 × 10⁻⁶). Both the negligible risk and the intolerable risk for the gas distribution pipeline are lower than the current societal risk acceptance criteria for hazardous installations. The reasons for these relatively lower risk acceptance criteria are discussed.     

综合安全评价(FSA)方法

为提高国际海运安全管理的决策水平,国际海事组织(IMO)接受并倡导由英国海运界提出的综合安全评价(FSA)方法,笔者对FSA方法作了本质性分析和应用性研究。阐述了FSA的由来,5个组成步骤及相互关系和流程,揭示了FSA与风险管理和安全系统工程的渊源;介绍了危险识别的7种工具;对步骤二“风险评估”重点引入了半定量分析方法和定量分析方法,并用集合论观点讨论了事故频率和后果严重度的计算方法;介绍了风险控制方案的“成本与效益评估”的数学模型;归纳了FSA方法的优缺点。指出FSA是一种集风险评价和成本/效益评估于一体,兼顾技术性与经济性,可广泛兼容具体评价方法和普遍适用各类风险评价的框架性方法,但具体应用需要有效整合适用的定性和定量方法。     

京沪高速铁路地震预警系统的方案及关键参数研究

京沪高速铁路及沿线区域跨越 4个主要的地震带 ,带内地震活动活跃 ,地震是对高速列车行车安全危害最大的自然灾害。在对京沪高速铁路及沿线区域地震危险性调查的基础上 ,对地震预警系统的构成、监测设备的设置方案及报警模式等一些关键问题进行了研究。通过对京沪高速铁路各类典型构筑物的大量的地震响应统计分析 ,给出了机械式地震仪的预警水平 ,并提出了适于P波检测的M -R判别标准 ,为京沪高速铁路安全监控系统中地震预警系统的建设提供理论依据。     

MPA法和Pushover法在掉层框架结构中的适用性对比分析

结合已有的规则结构分析结果,设置不同的掉层跨数、掉层数量的掉层结构,以逐步增量弹塑性时程分析(IDA)结果为依据,运用多模态Pushover法(MPA)和传统的Pushover法进行对比分析。结果表明:相对于规则框架结构,除MPA外,掉层结构的掉层部分在各类侧向力分布模式相对于IDA下的层间Pushover曲线有较大差异。SRSS分布下在掉一、二层位置,过高估计结构的响应。上接地层以上部位各侧向力下的层间Pushover曲线较IDA曲线误差较小。掉层的楼层的层剪力在上接地位置存在明显的突变。掉层跨数的改变对上部楼层弹塑性分析结果影响较小,但跨数的改变会改变同等烈度下结构的层间Pushover曲线和内力响应。与此同时,掉层跨数的增加会减轻"剪力突变"现象。伴随着掉层层数的增加,掉层部分均匀分布和倒三角分布与IDA下层间推覆曲线的差异会扩大。总之,相对于传统Pushover分析,MPA分析的结果更接近于相对准确值,需要进一步研究以提高精度。     

Seismic response mitigation of chemical plant components by passive control techniques

This paper deals with the applicability of seismic passive control in major-hazard chemical installations. The objective is to show numerically and experimentally the applicability of Passive Control Techniques (PCT) in industrial plants. Consequently, the main components of a process plant are classified and collected into a limited number of classes; for each class, the main damages caused by past earthquakes are described and the most vulnerable components are identified. A synthesis of the effects of earthquakes on the different typologies of process components is also presented and the most suitable innovative seismic protection systems, in particular passive control techniques (PCT), are acknowledged. Finally, the effectiveness of PCT in reducing the seismic response of process plant components is proved by three representative case studies: a base isolated above-ground storage tank, a distillation column connected by elastoplastic dampers to the adjacent service frame and an application of non-conventional Tuned Mass Dampers to a support frame.     

链式风险评估方法研究及工程应用

为解释工程中各类风险事件间存在的关联机理,将风险事件间的关联关系提炼为链式结构,给出了工程链式风险评估的整套流程和方法。以内罗毕国家公园特大桥施工期生态、灾害、安全风险全过程风险评估为例,阐明了该方法的应用过程,并与独立风险评估方法进行了比较。研究结果表明:链式风险评估方法计算量较大,评估步骤较为繁杂,当风险事件数量较大时其可操作性较差;当对某几项风险极为关注时,对其进行小范围的链式风险分析可使评估结果更加真实全面。 工程链式风险评估方法具有可行性和适用性。     

城市地震灾害风险区划的研究

为了研究城市面临的地震灾害风险,笔者在充分考虑地震灾害风险在空间上分布不均的基础上,提出城市地震灾害风险区划网格的划分原则,分析并总结与地震灾害风险评价相关的工程易损性分析方法,并在上述研究的基础上,探讨基于人员死亡数量和经济损失为标度的地震灾害风险计算方法,为城市抗震防灾规划编制提供依据。以厦门市地震灾害风险区划分为例进行了风险区划网格划分,并计算了不同网格的地震灾害风险,找出了厦门市地震风险严重的区域,为今后有针对性地进行抗震防灾工作提供有益的借鉴。     

Performance-based earthquake evaluation of a full-scale petrochemical piping system

Assessment of seismic vulnerability of industrial petrochemical and oil & gas piping systems can be performed, beyond analytical tools, through experimental testing as well. Along this line, this paper describes an experimental test campaign carried out on a full-scale piping system in order to assess its seismic behaviour. In particular, a typical industrial piping system, containing several critical components, such as elbows, a bolted flange joint and a Tee joint, was tested under different levels of realistic earthquake loading. They corresponded to serviceability and ultimate limit states for support structures as suggested by modern performance-based earthquake engineering standards. The so called hybrid simulation techniques namely, pseudo-dynamic and real time testing with dynamic substructuring, were adopted to perform seismic tests. Experimental results displayed a favourable performance of the piping system and its components; they remained below their yielding, allowable stress and allowable strain limits without any leakage even at the Near Collapse Limit State condition for the support structure. Moreover, the favourable comparison between experimental and numerical results, proved the validity of the proposed hybrid techniques alternative to shaking table tests.     

21世纪的结构工程抗震减灾设计新模式——抗震性能设计理论简介

面向 2 1世纪减轻城市地震灾害研究的需求 ,建筑结构的标准与规范的研究显得十分重要。笔者对抗震性能设计理论作了简要介绍 ,并将《建筑抗震设计规范》(GBJ11- 89)及其 1998年 9月的征求意见稿中相关的内容作了对比 ,还对 2 1世纪的抗震设计模式进行了展望     

基于防震烈度设计的设备响应谱分析方法

防震烈度为6度以上或地震设计基本加速度大于0.05g的化工设备石油化工设备必须进行抗震设计[1]。在未做全厂抗震设计情况下,设备安装位置地震谱未知,设备抗震设计时通常直接采用设计基本地震加速度进行抗震验算。此方法忽略了建筑物对地震效应的放大作用,分析结果可能出现不保守情况。本文以介绍了基于设计基本地震加速度的设计地震谱的计算方法,并以此地震谱对设备进行反应谱分析,对比采用设计基本加速度进行抗震验算的计算结果,为设备抗震分析提供参考。     

基于地震动参数的大型储罐潜在危险性评估方法研究

建设项目安全条件分析中有关自然条件影响分析内容通常采取定性方法加以研究。以地震对大型储罐造成的潜在危险性评估为研究对象,从地震动作用下储罐结构动力响应及破坏特征入手,详细介绍了美国联邦应急管理署(FEMA)开发的HAZUS-MH中的震害危险评估框架及理论模型。重点阐述了地震反应谱、承灾体脆弱性曲线、能力曲线以及需求曲线在危险性评估过程的应用及参数设定。以某大型低温液化气储罐为例,定量计算了地震潜在破坏程度及概率,借此说明该震害危险性评估框架和方法对我国安全评价工作的借鉴意义。