The impact of climate change on three indicator Galliformes species in the northern highlands of Pakistan

The rise in global temperature is one of the main threats of extinction to many vulnerable species by the twenty-first century. The negative impacts of climate change on the northern highlands of Pakistan (NHP) could change the species composition. Range shifts and range reduction in the forested landscapes will dramatically affect the distribution of forest-dwelling species, including the Galliformes (ground birds). Three Galliformes (e.g., Lophophorus impejanus, Pucrasia macrolopha, and Tragopan melanocephalus) are indicator species of the environment and currently distributed in NHP. For this study, we used Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) to simulate the current (average for 1960–1990) and future (in 2050 and 2070) distributions of the species using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two climate change scenarios, i.e., RCP4.5 (moderate carbon emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (peak carbon emission scenario). Our results indicated that (i) under all three climate scenarios, species distribution was predicted to both reduce and shift towards higher altitudes. (ii) Across the provinces in the NHP, the species were predicted to average lose around one-third (35%) in 2050 and one-half (47%) by 2070 of the current suitable habitat. (iii) The maximum area of climate refugia was projected between the altitudinal range of 2000 to 4000 m and predicted to shift towards higher altitudes primarily?>?3000 m in the future. Our results help inform management plans and conservation strategies for mitigating the impacts of climate change on three indicator Galliforms species in the NHP.

     

Modeling the effect of climate change on the distribution of threatened medicinal orchid Satyrium nepalense D. Don in India

It is vital to understand the distribution area of a threatened plant species for its better conservation and management planning. Satyrium nepalense (family: Orchidaceae) is a threatened terrestrial orchid species with valuable medicinal and nutritional properties. The survival of S. nepalense in wild conditions has been challenged by increasing global surface temperature. Hence, understanding the impact of climate change on its potential distribution is crucial to conserve and restore this species. In present study, Maxent species distribution modeling algorithm was used to simulate the current distribution of S. nepalense in India and predict the possible range shift in projected future climate scenarios. A set of 19 bioclimatic variables from WorldClim database were used to predict the potential suitable habitats in current climatic condition and four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios by integrating five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for future distribution modeling of species for the years 2050 and 2070. Furthermore, change analysis was performed to identify the suitable habitat in current and future climate for delineating range expansion (gain), contraction (loss), and stable (no change) habitats of species. The Maxent model predicted that?~?2.38% of the geographical area in India is presently climatically suitable for S. nepalense. The key bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of studied species were the mean temperature of warmest quarter, mean temperature of wettest quarter, precipitation of warmest quarter, and temperature seasonality. Under future climate change scenarios, the total suitable habitat of S. nepalense will increase slightly in the Himalayan region and likely to migrate towards northward, but in the Western Ghats region, the suitable areas will be lost severely. The net habitat loss under four RCP scenarios was estimated from 26 to 39% for the year 2050, which could further increase from 47 to 60% by the year 2070. The finding of the predictive Maxent modeling approach indicates that warming climates could significantly affect the potential habitats of S. nepalense and hence suitable conservation measures need to be taken to protect this threatened orchid species in wild conditions.

     

Effect of climate change on air quality

Air quality is strongly dependent on weather and is therefore sensitive to climate change. Recent studies have provided estimates of this climate effect through correlations of air quality with meteorological variables, perturbation analyses in chemical transport models (CTMs), and CTM simulations driven by general circulation model (GCM) simulations of 21st-century climate change. We review these different approaches and their results. The future climate is expected to be more stagnant, due to a weaker global circulation and a decreasing frequency of mid-latitude cyclones. The observed correlation between surface ozone and temperature in polluted regions points to a detrimental effect of warming. Coupled GCM–CTM studies find that climate change alone will increase summertime surface ozone in polluted regions by 1–10 ppb over the coming decades, with the largest effects in urban areas and during pollution episodes. This climate penalty means that stronger emission controls will be needed to meet a given air quality standard. Higher water vapor in the future climate is expected to decrease the ozone background, so that pollution and background ozone have opposite sensitivities to climate change. The effect of climate change on particulate matter (PM) is more complicated and uncertain than for ozone. Precipitation frequency and mixing depth are important driving factors but projections for these variables are often unreliable. GCM–CTM studies find that climate change will affect PM concentrations in polluted environments by ±0.1–1 μg m^?3 over the coming decades. Wildfires fueled by climate change could become an increasingly important PM source. Major issues that should be addressed in future research include the ability of GCMs to simulate regional air pollution meteorology and its sensitivity to climate change, the response of natural emissions to climate change, and the atmospheric chemistry of isoprene. Research needs to be undertaken on the effect of climate change on mercury, particularly in view of the potential for a large increase in mercury soil emissions driven by increased respiration in boreal ecosystems.     

The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030

In this United States-focused analysis we use outputs from two general circulation models (GCMs) driven by different greenhouse gas forcing scenarios as inputs to regional climate and chemical transport models to investigate potential changes in near-term U.S. air quality due to climate change. We conduct multiyear simulations to account for interannual variability and characterize the near-term influence of a changing climate on tropospheric ozone-related health impacts near the year 2030, which is a policy-relevant time frame that is subject to fewer uncertainties than other approaches employed in the literature. We adopt a 2030 emissions inventory that accounts for fully implementing anthropogenic emissions controls required by federal, state, and/or local policies, which is projected to strongly influence future ozone levels. We quantify a comprehensive suite of ozone-related mortality and morbidity impacts including emergency department visits, hospital admissions, acute respiratory symptoms, and lost school days, and estimate the economic value of these impacts. Both GCMs project average daily maximum temperature to increase by 1–4°C and 1–5 ppb increases in daily 8-hr maximum ozone at 2030, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary greatly over space and time. We estimate tens to thousands of additional ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year for these two scenarios and calculate an economic burden of these health outcomes of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$).

Implications:?Near-term changes to the climate have the potential to greatly affect ground-level ozone. Using a 2030 emission inventory with regional climate fields downscaled from two general circulation models, we project mean temperature increases of 1 to 4°C and climate-driven mean daily 8-hr maximum ozone increases of 1–5 ppb, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary significantly over space and time. These increased ozone levels are estimated to result in tens to thousands of ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year and an economic burden of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$).     

City ventilation of Hong Kong at no-wind conditions

We hypothesize that city ventilation due to both thermally-driven mountain slope flows and building surface flows is important in removing ambient airborne pollutants in the high-rise dense city Hong Kong at no-wind conditions. Both spatial and temporal urban surface temperature profiles are an important boundary condition for studying city ventilation by thermal buoyancy. Field measurements were carried out to investigate the diurnal thermal behavior of urban surfaces (mountain slopes, and building exterior walls and roofs) in Hong Kong by using the infrared thermography. The maximum urban surface temperature was measured in the early noon hours (14:00–15:00 h) and the minimum temperature was observed just before sunrise (5:00 h). The vertical surface temperature of the building exterior wall was found to increase with height at daytime and the opposite occurred at nighttime. The solar radiation and the physical properties of the various urban surfaces were found to be important factors affecting the surface thermal behaviors. The temperature difference between the measured maximum and minimum surface temperatures of the four selected exterior walls can be at the highest of 16.7 °C in the early afternoon hours (15:00 h). Based on the measured surface temperatures, the ventilation rate due to thermal buoyancy-induced wall surface flows of buildings and mountain slope winds were estimated through an integral analysis of the natural convection flow over a flat surface. At no-wind conditions, the total air change rate by the building wall flows (2–4 ACH) was found to be 2–4 times greater than that by the slope flows due to mountain surface (1 ACH) due to larger building exterior surface areas and temperature differences with surrounding air. The results provide useful insights into the ventilation of a high-rise dense city at no-wind conditions.     

Four Decades of Plant Community Change in the Alpine Tundra of Southwest Yukon,Canada

Repeat measurements from long-term plots provide precise data for studying plant community change. In 2010, we visited a remote location in Yukon, Canada, where a detailed survey of alpine tundra communities was conducted in 1968. Plant community composition was resurveyed on the same four slopes using the same methods as the original study. Species richness and diversity increased significantly over the 42 years and non-metric multidimensional scaling indicated that community composition had also changed significantly. However, the direction and magnitude of change varied with aspect. Dominant species were not replaced or eliminated but, instead, declined in relative importance. Fine-scale changes in vegetation were evident from repeat photography and dendro-ecological analysis of erect shrubs, supporting the community-level analysis. The period of study corresponds to a mean annual temperature increase of 2°C, suggesting that climate warming has influenced these changes.     

Simulating chemistry–aerosol–cloud–radiation–climate feedbacks over the continental U.S. using the online-coupled Weather Research Forecasting Model with chemistry (WRF/Chem)

The chemistry–aerosol–cloud–radiation–climate feedbacks are simulated using WRF/Chem over the continental U.S. in January and July 2001. Aerosols can reduce incoming solar radiation by up to ?9% in January and ?16% in July and 2-m temperatures by up to 0.16 °C in January and 0.37 °C in July over most of the continental U.S. The NO₂ photolysis rates decrease in July by up to ?8% over the central and eastern U.S. where aerosol concentrations are high but increase by up to 7% over the western U.S. in July and up to 13% over the entire domain in January. Planetary boundary layer (PBL) height reduces by up to ?23% in January and ?24% in July. Temperatures and wind speeds in July in big cities such as Atlanta and New York City reduce at/near surface but increase at higher altitudes. The changes in PBL height, temperatures, and wind speed indicate a more stable atmospheric stability of the PBL and further exacerbate air pollution over areas where air pollution is already severe. Aerosols can increase cloud optical depths in big cities in July, and can lead to 500–5000 cm^?3 cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) at a supersaturation of 1% over most land areas and 10–500 cm^?3 CCN over ocean in both months with higher values over most areas in July than in January, particularly in the eastern U.S. The total column cloud droplet number concentrations are up to 4.9 × 10⁶ cm^?2 in January and up to 11.8 × 10⁶ cm^?2 in July, with higher values over regions with high CCN concentrations and sufficient cloud coverage. Aerosols can reduce daily precipitation by up to 1.1 mm day^?1 in January and 19.4 mm day^?1 in July thus the wet removal rates over most of the land areas due to the formation of small CCNs, but they can increase precipitation over regions with the formation of large/giant CCN. These results indicate potential importance of the aerosol feedbacks and an urgent need for their accurate representations in current atmospheric models to reduce uncertainties associated with climate change predictions.     

Correlations between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and meteorological variables in the United States: Implications for the sensitivity of PM2.5 to climate change

We applied a multiple linear regression (MLR) model to study the correlations of total PM_2.5 and its components with meteorological variables using an 11-year (1998–2008) observational record over the contiguous US. The data were deseasonalized and detrended to focus on synoptic-scale correlations. We find that daily variation in meteorology as described by the MLR can explain up to 50% of PM_2.5 variability with temperature, relative humidity (RH), precipitation, and circulation all being important predictors. Temperature is positively correlated with sulfate, organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) almost everywhere. The correlation of nitrate with temperature is negative in the Southeast but positive in California and the Great Plains. RH is positively correlated with sulfate and nitrate, but negatively with OC and EC. Precipitation is strongly negatively correlated with all PM_2.5 components. We find that PM_2.5 concentrations are on average 2.6 μg m^?3 higher on stagnant vs. non-stagnant days. Our observed correlations provide a test for chemical transport models used to simulate the sensitivity of PM_2.5 to climate change. They point to the importance of adequately representing the temperature dependence of agricultural, biogenic and wildfire emissions in these models.     

Impact of anthropogenic heat on urban climate in Tokyo

This study quantifies the contribution through energy consumption, to the heat island phenomena and discussed how reductions in energy consumption could mitigate impacts on the urban thermal environment. Very detailed maps of anthropogenic heat in Tokyo were drawn with data from energy statistics and a very detailed digital geographic land use data set including the number of stories of building at each grid point. Animated computer graphics of the annual and diurnal variability in Tokyo's anthropogenic heat were also prepared with the same data sources. These outputs characterize scenarios of anthropogenic heat emission and can be applied to a numerical simulation model of the local climate. The anthropogenic heat flux in central Tokyo exceeded 400 W m⁻² in daytime, and the maximum value was 1590 W m⁻² in winter. The hot water supply in offices and hotels contributed 51% of this 1590 W m⁻². The anthropogenic heat flux from the household sector in the suburbs reached about 30 W m⁻² at night. Numerical simulations of urban climate in Tokyo were performed by referring to these maps. A heat island appeared evident in winter because of weakness of the sea breeze from Tokyo Bay. At 8 p.m., several peaks of high-temperature appeared, around Otemachi, Shinjuku and Ikebukuro; the areas with the largest anthropogenic heat fluxes. In summer the shortwave radiation was strong and the influence of anthropogenic heat was relatively small. In winter, on the other hand, the shortwave radiation was weak and the influence of anthropogenic heat was relatively large. The effects of reducing energy consumption, by 50% for hot water supply and 100% for space cooling, on near surface air temperature would be at most −0.5°C.     

Effects of post-sampling conditions on ambient carbon aerosol filter measurements

Ambient carbonaceous material collected on quartz filters is prone to measurement artifacts due to material gained or lost during post-sampling field latency, shipping, and storage. In seventeen sampling events over a one year period, ambient PM_2.5 aerosols were collected on quartz filters (without denuders) and subjected to various filter treatments to assess the potential for and extent of artifacts. The filter treatments simulated post-sampling environments that filters may be exposed to and included: storage at 40 °C for up to 96 h, storage at ?16 °C for 48 h, and storage at room temperature (～21 °C) for 48 h. Carbon mass on the filters was measured using a thermal-optical method. The total carbon (TC), total organic carbon (TOC) and total elemental carbon (TEC) as well as carbon thermal fraction masses were obtained. Statistical analyses were performed to identify significant differences in carbon fraction concentrations between filters analyzed immediately after sampling and after being subjected to treatment.TOC and TC concentrations decreased by on average 15 ± 5% and 10 ± 4%, respectively, for filters maintained at 40 °C for 96 h but did not change for filters stored at room temperature or frozen for 48 h. TEC did not change for any of the filter treatments. The mass concentration for the organic carbon thermal fraction that evolves at the lowest temperature step (OC1) decreased with increasing storage time at 40 °C with average losses of 70 ± 7% after 96 h. Therefore, OC1 is not a stable measurement due to post-sampling conditions that may be encountered. This work demonstrates that TOC and TC can have substantial measurement artifacts on filters subjected to field latency and other non-temperature controlled post-sampling handling, compared to the carbon loadings on the filter at the end of the sampling period.     

Temporal trends of black carbon concentrations and regional climate forcing in the southeastern United States

The effect of black carbon (BC) on climate forcing is potentially important, but its estimates have large uncertainties due to a lack of sufficient observational data. The BC mass concentration in the southeastern US was measured at a regionally representative site, Mount Gibbes (35.78°N, 82.29°W, 2006 m MSL). The air mass origin was determined using 48-h back trajectories obtained from the hybrid single-particle Lagrangian integrated trajectory model. The highest average concentration is seen in polluted continental air masses and the lowest in marine air masses. During the winter, the overall average BC value was 74.1 ng m⁻³, whereas the overall summer mean BC value is higher by a factor of 3. The main reason for the seasonal difference may be enhanced thermal convection during summer, which increases transport of air pollutants from the planetary boundary layer of the surrounding urban area to this rural site. In the spring of 1998, abnormally high BC concentrations from the continental sector were measured. These concentrations were originating from a biomass burning plume in Mexico. This was confirmed by the observations of the Earth probe total ozone mapping spectrometer. The BC average concentrations of air masses transported from the polluted continental sector during summer are low on Sunday to Tuesday with a minimum value of 256 ng m⁻³ occurring on Monday, and high on Wednesday to Friday with a maximum value of 379 ng m⁻³ occurring on Friday. The net aerosol radiative forcing (scattering effects plus absorption effects) per unit vertical depth at 2006 m MSL is calculated to be −1.38×10⁻³ W m⁻³ for the southeastern US. The magnitude of direct radiative forcing by aerosol scattering is reduced by 15±7% due to the BC absorption.     

Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management

Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2–4 °C warming and 50–80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical–biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.     

Regulation of glutathione-dependent antioxidant defense system of grass carp Ctenopharyngodon idella under the combined stress of mercury and temperature

In this study, we investigated the combined effects of temperatures fluencies and mercury (Hg) on glutathione-dependent antioxidant system in fish, by measuring the oxidative stress indicator (LPO, lipid peroxidation) and the parameters involved in the glutathione-related antioxidant defense system (GPx, glutathione peroxidase; GR, glutathione reductase; GST, glutathione S-transferase; GSH, reduced glutathione), as well as the expression of related genes in grass carp, Ctenopharyngodon idella. Fish (45.37?±?3.58 g) were exposed to 10 test groups, e.g., 15 °C with/without Hg, 20 °C with/without Hg, 25 °C with/without Hg, 30 °C with/without Hg, 35 °C with/without Hg for 4 weeks. Three-way ANOVA was used to analyze the correlation between the measured parameters and experimental conditions (water temperature, Hg exposure, exposure time, and their interactions.). Our results show that there is no interaction between mercury and low temperature, but the combined effect at high temperature has been confirmed, which indicated the glutathione-dependent enzyme system in grass carp has a complex regulatory mechanism with temperature fluctuations. In the actual field monitoring, it is necessary to consider the impact of extreme temperature on the toxicity of pollutants in the aquatic ecosystem.

     

Current State of the Altai Glaciers (Russia) and Trends Over the Period of Instrumental Observations 1952–2008

Results of research into climate and glacier dynamics in the Altai Mountains (Russia) over the period of instrumental observations (1952–2008) are presented in this article. About 1030 glaciers with a total area of 805 km² and volume of 42.5 km³ have been recorded in the Altai Region. The average summer air temperature in different regions of the Altai has increased during the study period from about 0.2°C (Aktru) to 1.1°C (Akkem). The annual atmospheric precipitation rate has also increased, by 8–10%. Since 1952, the glacier area in different regions of the Altai has decreased by 9–27%, and volume by 12–24%. By 2008, as a result of degradation, the total number of glaciers was 953 with an area of 724 km² and volume of 38 km³.     

Testing DayCent and DNDC model simulations of N2O fluxes and assessing the impacts of climate change on the gas flux and biomass production from a humid pasture

Simulation models are one of the approaches used to investigate greenhouse gas emissions and potential effects of global warming on terrestrial ecosystems. DayCent which is the daily time-step version of the CENTURY biogeochemical model, and DNDC (the DeNitrification–DeComposition model) were tested against observed nitrous oxide flux data from a field experiment on cut and extensively grazed pasture located at the Teagasc Oak Park Research Centre, Co. Carlow, Ireland. The soil was classified as a free draining sandy clay loam soil with a pH of 7.3 and a mean organic carbon and nitrogen content at 0–20 cm of 38 and 4.4 g kg^?1 dry soil, respectively. The aims of this study were to validate DayCent and DNDC models for estimating N₂O emissions from fertilized humid pasture, and to investigate the impacts of future climate change on N₂O fluxes and biomass production. Measurements of N₂O flux were carried out from November 2003 to November 2004 using static chambers. Three climate scenarios, a baseline of measured climatic data from the weather station at Carlow, and high and low temperature sensitivity scenarios predicted by the Community Climate Change Consortium For Ireland (C4I) based on the Hadley Centre Global Climate Model (HadCM₃) and the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario were investigated. DayCent predicted cumulative N₂O flux and biomass production under fertilized grass with relative deviations of +38% and (?23%) from the measured, respectively. However, DayCent performs poorly under the control plots, with flux relative deviation of (?57%) from the measured. Comparison between simulated and measured flux suggests that both DayCent model’s response to N fertilizer and simulated background flux need to be adjusted. DNDC overestimated the measured flux with relative deviations of +132 and +258% due to overestimation of the effects of SOC. DayCent, though requiring some calibration for Irish conditions, simulated N₂O fluxes more consistently than did DNDC. We used DayCent to estimate future fluxes of N₂O from this field. No significant differences were found between cumulative N₂O flux under climate change and baseline conditions. However, above-ground grass biomass was significantly increased from the baseline of 33 t ha^?1 to 45 (+34%) and 50 (+48%) t dry matter ha^?1 for the low and high temperature sensitivity scenario respectively. The increase in above-ground grass biomass was mainly due to the overall effects of high precipitation, temperature and CO₂ concentration. Our results indicate that because of high N demand by the vigorously growing grass, cumulative N₂O flux is not projected to increase significantly under climate change, unless more N is applied. This was observed for both the high and low temperature sensitivity scenarios.     

Impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosols on climate: Evidence for aerosol shortwave and longwave forcing in the Southeastern U.S.

Major volcanic eruptions inject massive amounts of dust and gases into the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. Stratospheric volcanic aerosols can scatter incoming solar radiation to space, increasing planetary albedo, reducing the total amount of solar energy reaching the troposphere and the earth's surface, and decreasing the daytime maximum temperature (aerosol shortwave forcing). They can also absorb and scatter outgoing terrestrial longwave radiation, increasing the nighttime minimum surface temperature (longwave forcing). However, persuasive evidence of climate response to this forcing has thus far been lacking. Here we examine patterns of annual and seasonal variations in mean maximum and minimum temperature trend during the periods 1992–1994 and 1985–1987 relative to that during the period 1988–1990 at 47 stations in the southeastern U.S. for evidence of such climate responses. The stratospheric volcanic aerosol optical depths over the southeastern U.S. during the period 1985–1994 were inferred from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gases Experiment (SAGE) 11 satellite extinction measurement. After the long-term trend signals are removed, it is shown that the dominant decreasing trend of mean maximum temperature and the dominant increasing trend of mean minimum temperature over periods 1992–1994 and 1985–1987 relative to that over the period 1988–1990 are consistent with the distribution of stratospheric volcanic aerosols and predictions from aerosol radiative forcing in the southeastern U.S.     

Atmospheric corrosion effects of HNO3—Influence of temperature and relative humidity on laboratory-exposed copper

The effect of HNO₃ on the atmospheric corrosion of copper has been investigated at varied temperature (15–35 °C) and relative humidity (0–85% RH). Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction (XRD) confirmed the existence of cuprite and gerhardtite as the two main corrosion products on the exposed copper surface. For determination of the corrosion rate and for estimation of the deposition velocity (V_d) of HNO₃ on copper, gravimetry and ion chromatography has been employed. Temperature had a low effect on the corrosion of copper. A minor decrease in the mass gain was observed as the temperature was increased to 35 °C, possibly as an effect of lower amount of cuprite due to a thinner adlayer on the metal surface at 35 °C. The V_d of HNO₃ on copper, however, was unaffected by temperature. The corrosion rate and V_d of HNO₃ on copper was the lowest at 0% RH, i. e. dry condition, and increased considerably when changing to 40% RH. A maximum was reached at 65% RH and the mass gain remained constant when the RH was increased to 85% RH. The V_d of HNO₃ on copper at ⩾65% RH, 25 °C and 0.03 cm s⁻¹ air velocity was as high as 0.15±0.03 cm s⁻¹ to be compared with the value obtained for an ideal absorbent, 0.19±0.02 cm s⁻¹. At sub-ppm levels of HNO₃, the corrosion rate of copper decreased after 14 d and the growth of the oxide levelled off after 7 d of exposure.     

Sensitivity analysis of the CERES-wheat model for variations in CO2 and meteorological factors in Northwest Turkey

Plant growth is very sensitive to variations in atmospheric factors. Possible effects of climate change on plant growth can be estimated and evaluated using the crop growth simulation models. In this study, the CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis)-wheat model was applied to two consequent growing seasons (1997–1998 and 1998–1999) in order to determine the model sensitivity on the changes in several meteorological factors such as air temperature, precipitation, solar radiation and carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration. In the model, the air temperature variations were applied from ±1°C up to ±2°C and CO₂ were changed in the range of 20% to 100%, while the solar radiation, precipitation were varied between 10% and 20%. Biomass and the grain yield of the wheat crop were influenced positively by the increased combination of the solar radiation, air temperature and CO₂. However, low crop responses to the variations in precipitation were unexpected.     

Benzyl-penicillin (Penicillin G) transformation in aqueous solution at low temperature under controlled laboratory conditions

Antibiotics are released into the environment in a variety of ways: via wastewater effluent as a result of incomplete metabolism in the body after use in human therapy, as runoff after use in agriculture, through improper disposal by private households or hospitals or through insufficient removal by water treatment plants. Unlike in most European countries, in Arctic regions effluents are not suitably treated prior to their release into the aquatic environment. Also, many of the scattered human settlements in remote regions of the Arctic do not possess sewage treatment facilities and pharmaceutical residues therefore enter the aqueous environment untreated.Only limited data are available on the biodegradation of antibiotics under Arctic conditions. However, such information is needed to estimate the potential harm of antibiotics for the environment. Pen-G is used in this study since it is a widely prescribed antibiotic compound whose environmental properties have not yet been investigated in detail. Thus, for a very first assessment, the OECD approved biodegradation Zahn–Wellens test (ZWT, OECD 302 B) was used to study biodegradation and non-biotic elimination of the antibiotic Benzyl-penicillin (Pen-G) at different temperatures (5 °C, 12.5 °C and 20 °C). The testing period was extended from the OECD standard of 28–42 d. In addition to dissolved organic carbon (DOC), Pen-G levels and major transformation products were recorded continuously by LC-ion-trap-MS/MS. DOC monitoring revealed considerable temperature dependence for the degradation process of Pen-G. DOC loss was slowest at 5 °C and considerably faster at 12.5 °C and 20 °C. In the initial step of degradation it was found that Pen-G was hydrolyzed. This hydrolyzed Pen-G was subsequently further degraded by decarboxylation, the result of which was 2-(5,5-dimethyl-1,3-thiazolidin-2-yl)-2-(2-phenylacetamido)acetic acid. Furthermore, direct elimination of 2-phenyl-acetaldehyde from the hydrolyzed and decarboxylated Pen-G also led to the formation of 2-[amino(carboxy)methyl]-5,5-dimethyl-1,3-thiazolidone-4-carboxylic acid. Since biodegradation slows down considerably at a low temperature, the resulting transformation products had considerably longer residence times at 5 °C compared to higher temperature conditions within the 42-d experiment. The results presented here clearly demonstrate that a risk assessment for pharmaceuticals present in low ambient temperature environments (i.e. the Arctic) cannot be based on test results obtained under standard laboratory conditions (i.e. 20 °C ambient temperatures).