Changes Versus Homeostasis in Alpine and Sub-Alpine Vegetation Over Three Decades in the Sub-Arctic

Plant species distributions are expected to shift and diversity is expected to decline as a result of global climate change, particularly in the Arctic where climate warming is amplified. We have recorded the changes in richness and abundance of vascular plants at Abisko, sub-Arctic Sweden, by re-sampling five studies consisting of seven datasets; one in the mountain birch forest and six at open sites. The oldest study was initiated in 1977–1979 and the latest in 1992. Total species number increased at all sites except for the birch forest site where richness decreased. We found no general pattern in how composition of vascular plants has changed over time. Three species, Calamagrostis lapponica, Carex vaginata and Salix reticulata, showed an overall increase in cover/frequency, while two Equisetum taxa decreased. Instead, we showed that the magnitude and direction of changes in species richness and composition differ among sites.     

Bacterial community structure and diversity responses to the direct revegetation of an artisanal zinc smelting slag after 5 years

This comparative field study examined the responses of bacterial community structure and diversity to the revegetation of zinc (Zn) smelting waste slag with eight plant species after 5 years. The microbial community structure of waste slag with and without vegetation was evaluated using high-throughput sequencing. The physiochemical properties of Zn smelting slag after revegetation with eight plant rhizospheres for 5 years were improved compared to those of bulk slag. Revegetation significantly increased the microbial community diversity in plant rhizospheres, and at the phylum level, Proteobacteria, Acidobacteria, and Bacteroidetes were notably more abundant in rhizosphere slags than those in bulk waste slag. Additionally, revegetation increased the relative abundance of plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria such as Flavobacterium, Streptomyces, and Arthrobacter as well as symbiotic N₂ fixers such as Bradyrhizobium. Three dominant native plant species (Arundo donax, Broussonetia papyrifera, and Robinia pseudoacacia) greatly increased the quality of the rhizosphere slags. Canonical correspondence analysis showed that the differences in bacterial community structure between the bulk and rhizosphere slags were explained by slag properties, i.e., pH, available copper (Cu) and lead (Pb), moisture, available nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K), and organic matter (OM); however, available Zn and cadmium (Cd) contents were the slag parameters that best explained the differences between the rhizosphere communities of the eight plant species. The results suggested that revegetation plays an important role in enhancing bacterial community abundance and diversity in rhizosphere slags and that revegetation may also regulate microbiological properties and diversity mainly through changes in heavy metal bioavailability and physiochemical slag characteristics.

     

Effects of fenvalerate concentrations and its chiral isomers on bacterial community structure in the sediment environment of aquaculture ponds

To investigate the effect of chiral pesticide fenvalerate (FV) on the micro-ecological environment of aquaculture pond sediment, we used an indoor static experiment to observe the effects of FV added at different concentrations with different chiral isomers on the changes in the sediment bacterial community. The 16S rDNA high-throughput sequencing technique was used to conduct sequencing and analysis of the bacterial community structure as well as changes in aquaculture pond sediments after 4 weeks of cultivation. The results showed that the microbial alpha diversity indices (Sobs and Shannon indices) of the treated groups were significantly lower than those of the control group after 4 weeks (P < 0.05), and the values in the high-concentration group were significantly lower than those of the low-concentration group (P < 0.05). In terms of bacterial group composition, the proportion of abundance of Proteobacteria and Acidobacteria in the treated groups were greater than in the control group after 4 weeks, while the proportion of abundance of Bacteroidetes and Verrucomicrobia were lower. In the high-concentration FV treatment group, the proportion of abundance of Bacteroidetes, Acidobacteria, Chloroflexi, Nitrospinae, unclassified_k_norank, Ignavibacteriae, and Nitrospirae were significantly different from those of the other groups (P < 0.05). Principal coordinate analysis (PCoA) and ANONISIM/Adonis analysis showed that the cis-enantiomer had a stronger effect on the bacterial community as the concentration of FV increased. In addition, the linear discriminant analysis effect size (LEfSe) and linear discriminant analysis (LDA) results revealed differences in the level of enrichment of bacterial groups caused by FV at different concentrations and isomer levels. Collectively, this study showed that FV residue has a pronounced effect on bacterial communities in sediment, which becomes more significant with increasing exposure concentration. The effects of the cis- and trans-enantiomers of FV on the sediment environment are different; the cis-enantiomer has a stronger effect on the bacterial community.

     

Changes versus homeostasis in alpine and sub-alpine vegetation over three decades in the sub-arctic

Plant species distributions are expected to shift and diversity is expected to decline as a result of global climate change, particularly in the Arctic where climate warming is amplified. We have recorded the changes in richness and abundance of vascular plants at Abisko, sub-Arctic Sweden, by re-sampling five studies consisting of seven datasets; one in the mountain birch forest and six at open sites. The oldest study was initiated in 1977-1979 and the latest in 1992. Total species number increased at all sites except for the birch forest site where richness decreased. We found no general pattern in how composition of vascular plants has changed over time. Three species, Calamagrostis lapponica, Carex vaginata and Salix reticulata, showed an overall increase in cover/frequency, while two Equisetum taxa decreased. Instead, we showed that the magnitude and direction of changes in species richness and composition differ among sites.     

Can Repeated Fertilizer Applications to Young Norway Spruce Enhance Avian Diversity in Intensively Managed Forests?

Repeated fertilization of forests to increase biomass production is an environmentally controversial proposal, the effects of which we assessed on breeding birds in stands of young Norway spruce (Picea abies), in an intensively managed forest area in southern Sweden. Our results show that fertilized stands had 38% more species and 21% more individuals than unfertilized stands. Compared with stands under traditional management, the further intensification of forestry by repeated applications of fertilizers thus seemed to enhance species richness and abundance of forest birds. We cannot conclude at this stage whether the response in the bird community was caused by changes in food resources or increased structural complexity in the forest canopy due to the skid roads used for the application of the fertilizers. Future studies should focus on structural and compositional effects of fertilization processes during the entire rotation period and at assessing its effects in a landscape context.     

Improvement of aquaculture water quality by mixed Bacillus and its effects on microbial community structure

Microbial remediation, especially the application of probiotics, has recently gained popularity in improving water quality and maintaining aquatic animal health. The efficacy and mechanism of mixed Bacillus for improvement of water quality and its effects on aquatic microbial community structure remain unknown. To elucidate these issues, we applied two groups of mixed Bacillus (Bacillus megaterium and Bacillus subtilis (A0?+?BS) and Bacillus megaterium and Bacillus coagulans (A0?+?BC)) to the aquaculture system of Crucian carp. Our results showed that the improvement effect of mixed Bacillus A0?+?BS on water quality was better than that of A0?+?BC, and the NH₄⁺-N, NO₂^?-N, NO₃^?-N, and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations were reduced by 46.3%, 76.3%, 35.6%, and 80.3%, respectively. In addition, both groups of mixed Bacillus increased the diversity of the bacterial community and decreased the diversity of the fungal community. Microbial community analysis showed that mixed Bacillus A0?+?BS increased the relative abundance of bacteria related with nitrogen and phosphorus removal, such as Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, Comamonas, and Stenotrophomonas, but decreased the relative abundance of pathogenic bacteria (Acinetobacter and Pseudomonas) and fungi (Epicoccum and Fusarium). Redundancy analysis showed that NH₄⁺-N, NO₂^?-N, and TP were the primary environmental factors affecting the microbial community in aquaculture water. PICRUST analysis indicated that all functional pathways in the A0?+?BS group were richer than those in other groups. These results indicated that mixed Bacillus A0?+?BS addition produced good results in reducing nitrogenous and phosphorus compounds and shaped a favorable microbial community structure to further improve water quality.

Graphical abstract

     

微氧折流反应器中产甲烷菌的分布与群落结构分析

为了研究微氧条件下折流反应器处理生活污水的微生物学机理,针对产甲烷菌的MCR基因采用实时荧光定量PCR和构建克隆文库的方法,对反应器中的关键功能微生物产甲烷菌的分布特点与群落结构变化进行了分析。结果表明,微氧条件下折流反应器的环境条件可以保证产甲烷菌的增长,不同格室的产甲烷菌丰度均要高于接种污泥(1 720 copies/ng),其中经过微氧曝气处理的1#(2 864 copies/ng)和2#(2 282 copies/ng)格室产甲烷菌丰度低于厌氧状态的3#(3 508copies/ng)格室;微氧处理后折流反应器产甲烷菌的群落结构发生了明显的变化,接种污泥的产甲烷菌多属于Methanomicrobiales目的 Methanoregulaceae属(6/9),而保持微氧状态的1#格室中产甲烷菌多隶属于Methanomicrobiales目(6/10)的其他类群,2#格室的产甲烷菌则多隶属于Methanobacteriales目(5/10),保持厌氧状态的3#格室的产甲烷菌主要属于Methanomicrobiales目(3/10)和Methanosarcinales目(3/10);产甲烷菌MCR基因的多样性指数表明微氧曝气的引入降低了活性污泥中产甲烷菌的生物多样性。     

Potential of copper-tolerant grasses to implement phytostabilisation strategies on polluted soils in South D. R. Congo

Phytostabilisation (i.e. using plants to immobilise contaminants) represents a well-known technology to hamper heavy metal spread across landscapes. Southeastern D.R. Congo, Microchloa altera, a tolerant grass from the copper hills, was recently identified as a candidate species to stabilise copper in the soil. More than 50 grasses compose this flora, which may be studied to implement phytostabilisation strategies. However, little is known about their phenology, tolerance, reproductive strategy or demography. The present study aims to characterize the Poaceae that may be used in phytostabilisation purposes based on the following criteria: their ecological distribution, seed production at two times, abundance, soil coverage and the germination percentage of their seeds. We selected seven perennial Poaceae that occur on the copper hills. Their ecological distributions (i.e. species response curves) have been modelled along copper or cobalt gradients with generalised additive models using logic link based on 172 presence-absence samples on three sites. For other variables, a total of 69 quadrats (1 m²) were randomly placed across three sites and habitats. For each species, we compared the number of inflorescence-bearing stems (IBS) by plot, the percentage of cover, the number of seeds by IBS and the estimated number of seeds by plot between sites and habitat. Three species (Andropogon schirensis, Eragrostis racemosa and Loudetia simplex) were very interesting for phytostabilisation programs. They produced a large quantity of seeds and had the highest percentage of cover. However, A. schirensis and L. simplex presented significant variations in the number of seeds and the percentage of cover according to site.     

Changes in TcpA gene frequency explain 2,4,6-trichlorophenol degradation in mesocosms

Soils are often polluted by chlorophenols in timber production areas in the northern hemisphere. The tcpA gene encodes the first step of 2,4,6-trichlorophenol (246-TCP) degradation. We tested tcpA gene frequency in three natural pristine soils with different 246-TCP degradation capacity. Gene tcpA frequency increased more in spiked than non-spiked 10-L pails containing coniferous humus soil with high degradation capacity, in contrast to soils where degradation was slower. As the soil in each mesocosm originated from a spatially separate field plot, changes in tcpA gene frequency affected 246-TCP degradation over a range of soil origins. This indicates that the abundance of and changes in tcpA gene frequency could be utilized in estimating the efficacy of natural attenuation and biostimulation treatments in controlled conditions.     

The effects of tertiary treated municipal wastewater on fish communities of a small river tributary in Southern Ontario, Canada

Fish community changes associated with a tertiary treated municipal wastewater effluent outfall in the Speed River, Ontario, Canada, were evaluated at nine sites over two seasons (2008) using standardized electrofishing. Habitat evaluations were conducted to ensure that the riffle sites selected were physically similar. The fish community was dominated by several species of darters that differed in their response to the effluent outfall. There was a significant decrease in Greenside Darter (Etheostoma blennioides) but an increase in Rainbow Darter (E. caeruleum) abundance directly downstream of the outfall. Stable isotope signatures (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N), which indicate shifts in energy utilization and flow, increased in Rainbow Darter downstream, but showed no change in Greenside Darter. Rainbow Darter may be exploiting a food source that is not as available at upstream sites giving them a competitive advantage over the Greenside Darter immediately downstream of the outfall.     

A comparison of antibiotics,antibiotic resistance genes,and bacterial community in broiler and layer manure following composting

Animal manure is an important source of antibiotics and antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) in the environment. However, the difference of antibiotic residues and ARG profiles in layer and broiler manure as well as their compost remains unexplored. In this study, we investigated the profiles of twelve antibiotics, seventeen ARGs, and class 1 integrase gene (intI1) in layer and broiler manure, and the corresponding compost at large-scale. Compared with layer manure, broiler manure exhibited approximately six times more residual tetracyclines, especially chlortetracycline. The relative abundances of qnrS and ermA genes in broiler manure were significantly higher than those in layer manure. The concentration of tetracyclines not only had a significantly positive correlation with tetracycline resistance genes (tetA and tetC) but was also positively correlated with quinolone resistance (qepA, qnrB, and qnrS) and macrolide resistance (ermA and ermT). Most ARGs in manure were reduced after composting. However, the relative abundance of sulfonamide resistance gene sul1 increased up to 2.41% after composting, which was significantly higher than that of broiler (0.41%) and layer (0.62%) manure. The associated bacterial community was characterized by high-throughput 16S rRNA gene sequencing. The relative abundances of thermophilic bacteria had significant positive correlations with the abundance of sul1 in compost. The composting has a significant impact on the ARG-associated gut microbes in poultry manure. Variation partitioning analysis indicated that the change of bacterial community compositions and antibiotics contributed partially to the shift in ARG profiles. The results indicate that at industry-scale production broiler manure had more antibiotics and ARGs than layer manure did, and composting decreased most ARG abundances in poultry manure except for sulfonamide resistance genes.

     

Recolonization and succession of marine macrobenthos in organic-enriched sediment deposited from fish farms

High organic loading deposited on the sea bottom by marine fish farming activities often eliminates benthic organisms in the vicinity. In this study, organic-enriched sediment collected underneath a fish farm was defaunated, placed in settling trays and exposed to the subtidal area of a clean site of similar hydrography. Trays were sampled monthly for a consecutive period of 5 months, and recolonization and successional patterns of macrobenthos were studied using univariate and multivariate statistics. Recolonization occurred rapidly, and averages of 144 animals/tray and 26 species/tray were recorded within the first month. Molluscs accounted for 49% of species and polychaetes for 77% of abundance during the first month of recolonization. Temporal changes in abundance, diversity and species composition found in subsequent months resembled spatial changes of benthic community along a decreasing pollution gradient generalised by Pearson and Rosenberg (1978, Oceanography & Marine Biology Annual Review 16, 229-311). Abundance reached a peak after 3 months (434 animals/tray) and then declined. Species number also increased, peaked after 4 months (47 species/tray), and was followed by a decrease. The polychaete Prionospio malmgreni succeeded Pseudopolydora paucibranchiata as the dominant species after the first month, reached a peak (194 animals/tray) after 3 months, then declined sharply. The rapid recolonization and succession of the macrobenthic community on organic-enriched sediment suggested that present fish farming methods are unlikely to have a long-term impact on benthic communities once farming activities are reduced/ceased.     

Historical alteration in the nitrogen concentration and N natural abundance of mosses in Germany: Indication for regionally varying changes in atmospheric nitrogen deposition within the last 140 years

Historical alterations of nitrogen deposition in the western part of Germany were investigated by comparing nitrogen concentrations and ¹⁵N natural abundance of historical and recent samples of the two pleurocarpous mosses Pleurozium schreberi and Scleropodium purum. Pooling of the data revealed only slight tissue N increases over the past 140 years which were significant nevertheless. At closer examination on the single site level historical increases of N concentrations were found particularly for some sites in regions where agricultural activities were considerably intensified during the second half of the 20th century. The comparison of δ¹⁵N values showed a strong depletion of ¹⁵N natural abundance in areas currently heavily influenced by livestock management. This indicates an increased impact of NH_y compounds. However, the almost unchanged δ¹⁵N values in some low mountain range areas with only moderate intensification of agriculture point to a more or less constant ratio of NH_y/NO_x input over time. Significant correlations of both tissue N concentrations and ¹⁵N natural abundance between the two species justify the assumption that they use the same nitrogen source, probably atmospheric deposition.     

Follow-up trends of parasite community alteration in a marine fish after the Prestige oil-spill: shifting baselines?

This study evaluates the follow-up trends in the composition and structure of the parasite communities in the marine sparid Boops boops after the Prestige oil-spill. A total of 400 fish comprising 11 seasonal samples was analyzed from three impacted localities on the Atlantic coast of Spain. A large number of parasite species was recovered only after the spill thus suggesting a substantial alteration of the marine food webs. Post-spill communities exhibited higher richness and abundance due to the significant changes in the abundance of the common species, the latter indicating accelerated parasite transmission rates. Multivariate analyses at two nested scales detected a directional trend in parasite community succession towards the pre-spill situation, however, with no full support for community recovery. The state of parasite communities in 2005-2006 may provide the new baseline data which can serve as a framework for quantifying the impact of potential future spills in the region.     

Antibiotic resistance genes in an urban river as impacted by bacterial community and physicochemical parameters

Antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) in urban rivers are a serious public health concern in regions with poorly planned, rapid development. To gain insights into the predominant factors affecting the fate of ARGs in a highly polluted urban river in eastern China, a total of 285 ARGs, microbial communities, and 20 physicochemical parameters were analyzed for 17 sites. A total of 258 unique ARGs were detected using high-throughput qPCR, and the absolute abundance of total ARGs was positively correlated with total organic carbon and total dissolved nitrogen concentrations (P < 0.01). ARG abundance and diversity were greatly altered by microbial community structure. Variation partitioning analysis showed that the combined effects of multiple factors contributed to the profile and dissemination of ARGs, and variation of microbial communities was the major factor affecting the distribution of ARGs. The disparate distribution of some bacteria, including Bacteroides from mammalian gastrointestinal flora, Burkholderia from zoonotic infectious diseases, and Zoogloea from wastewater treatment, indicates that the urban river was strongly influenced by point-source pollution. Results imply that microbial community shifts caused by changes in water quality may lead to the spread of ARGs, and point-source pollution in urban rivers requires greater attention to control the transfer of ARGs between environmental bacteria and pathogens.

     

Modeling methane oxidation in landfill cover soils as indicator of functional stability with respect to gas management

A performance-based method for evaluating methane (CH₄) oxidation as the best available control technology (BACT) for passive management of landfill gas (LFG) was applied at a municipal solid waste (MSW) landfill in central Washington, USA, to predict when conditions for functional stability with respect to LFG management would be expected. The permitted final cover design at the subject landfill is an all-soil evapotranspirative (ET) cover system. Using a model, a correlation between CH₄ loading flux and oxidation was developed for the specific ET cover design. Under Washington’s regulations, a MSW landfill is functionally stable when it does not present a threat to human health or the environment (HHE) at the relevant point of exposure (POE), which was conservatively established as the cover surface. Approaches for modeling LFG migration and CH₄ oxidation are discussed, along with comparisons between CH₄ oxidation and biodegradation of non-CH₄ organic compounds (NMOCs). The modeled oxidation capacity of the ET cover design is 15 g/m²/day under average climatic conditions at the site, with 100% oxidation expected on an annual average basis for fluxes up to 8 g/m²/day. This translates to a sitewide CH₄ generation rate of about 260 m³/hr, which represents the functional stability target for allowing transition to cover oxidation as the BACT (subject to completion of a confirmation monitoring program). It is recognized that less than 100% oxidation might occur periodically if climate and/or cover conditions do not precisely match the model, but that residual emissions during such events would be de minimis in comparison with published limit values. Accordingly, it is also noted that nonzero net emissions may not represent a threat to HHE at a POE (i.e., a target flux between 8 and 15 g/m²/day might be appropriate for functional stability) depending on the site reuse plan and distance to potential receptors.

Implications: This study provides a scientifically defensible method for estimating when methane oxidation in landfill cover soils may represent the best available control technology for residual landfill gas (LFG) emissions. This should help operators and regulators agree on the process of safely eliminating active LFG controls in favor of passive control measures once LFG generation exhibits asymptotic trend behavior below the oxidation capacity of the soil. It also helps illustrate the potential benefits of evolving landfill designs to include all-soil vegetated evapotranspirative (ET) covers that meet sustainability objectives as well as regulatory performance objectives for infiltration control.     

Testing the Potential for Predictive Modeling and Mapping and Extending Its Use as a Tool for Evaluating Management Scenarios and Economic Valuation in the Baltic Sea (PREHAB)

We evaluated performance of species distribution models for predictive mapping, and how models can be used to integrate human pressures into ecological and economic assessments. A selection of 77 biological variables (species, groups of species, and measures of biodiversity) across the Baltic Sea were modeled. Differences among methods, areas, predictor, and response variables were evaluated. Several methods successfully predicted abundance and occurrence of vegetation, invertebrates, fish, and functional aspects of biodiversity. Depth and substrate were among the most important predictors. Models incorporating water clarity were used to predict increasing cover of the brown alga bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus and increasing reproduction area of perch Perca fluviatilis, but decreasing reproduction areas for pikeperch Sander lucioperca following successful implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Despite variability in estimated non-market benefits among countries, such changes were highly valued by citizens in the three Baltic countries investigated. We conclude that predictive models are powerful and useful tools for science-based management of the Baltic Sea.     

Bacterial abundance and community structure in response to nutrients and photodegraded terrestrial humic acids in a eutrophic lake

The exposure of humic substances to solar radiation can alter their concentration and composition and subsequently influences their bioavailability in aquatic food webs. With eutrophication increasingly prominent in lakes, nutrients, such as inorganic N and P, are a prerequisite for heterotrophic bacteria that use organic matter. Here photodegradation of terrestrial humic acids and nutrient addition were performed to investigate the response of bacterial abundance and community structure to photodegraded humic acids and increased nutrient concentrations in a eutrophic lake. Results showed that the decreasing level of absorption coefficient at 460 nm in the treatment irradiated with 40 W UV lamps was more remarkable than that of the treatment irradiated with 20 W UV lamps and the control. This reduced coefficient corresponds to the greatest decrease in humic acid concentration in the 40 W group. Bacteria showed high abundance after incubation with humic acids which underwent strong irradiation intensity. An increased nutrient concentration significantly affected bacterial abundance. The dominant bacteria were Aquabacterium for the irradiated group, Aquabacterium and Limnobacter for the 20 W group and Flavobacterium and Limnobacter for the 40 W group. Armatimonadetes-gp4 and Sediminibacterium showed evident response to high nutrient concentration. Our results showed that the exposure of terrestrial humic acids to UV light and the increasing concentration of nutrients have obviously changed bacterial community.

     

Tree and Shrub Expansion Over the Past 34 Years at the Tree-Line Near Abisko,Sweden

Shrubs and trees are expected to expand in the sub-Arctic due to global warming. Our study was conducted in Abisko, sub-arctic Sweden. We recorded the change in coverage of shrub and tree species over a 32– to 34-year period, in three 50 × 50 m plots; in the alpine-tree-line ecotone. The cover of shrubs and trees (<3.5 cm diameter at breast height) were estimated during 2009–2010 and compared with historical documentation from 1976 to 1977. Similarly, all tree stems (≥3.5 cm) were noted and positions determined. There has been a substantial increase of cover of shrubs and trees, particularly dwarf birch (Betula nana), and mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii), and an establishment of aspen (Populus tremula). The other species willows (Salix spp.), juniper (Juniperus communis), and rowan (Sorbus aucuparia) revealed inconsistent changes among the plots. Although this study was unable to identify the causes for the change in shrubs and small trees, they are consistent with anticipated changes due to climate change and reduced herbivory.     

Alternate approaches for assessing impacts of oil sands development on air quality: A case study using the First Nation Community of Fort McKay

Previous analyses of continuously measured compounds in Fort McKay, an indigenous community in the Athabasca Oil Sands, have detected increasing concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and total hydrocarbons (THC), but not of sulfur dioxide (SO₂), ozone (O₃), total reduced sulfur compounds (TRS), or particulate matter (aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm; PM_2.5). Yet the community frequently experiences odors, dust, and reduced air quality. The authors used Fort McKay’s continuously monitored air quality data (1998–2014) as a case study to assess techniques for air quality analysis that make no assumptions regarding type of change. Linear trend analysis detected increasing concentrations of higher percentiles of NO₂, nitric oxide (NO), and nitrogen oxides (NO_x), and THC. However, comparisons of all compounds between an early industrial expansion period (1998–2001) and current day (2011–2014) show that concentrations of NO₂, SO₂, THC, TRS, and PM_2.5 have significantly increased, whereas concentrations of O₃ are significantly lower. An assessment of the frequency and duration of periods when concentrations of each compound were above a variety of thresholds indicated that the frequency of air quality events is increasing for NO₂ and THC. Assessment of change over time with odds ratios of the 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentile concentrations for each compound compared with an estimate of natural background variability showed that concentrations of TRS, SO₂, and THC are dynamic, higher than background, and changes are nonlinear and nonmonotonic. An assessment of concentrations as a function of wind direction showed a clear and generally increasing influence of industry on air quality. This work shows that evaluating air quality without assumptions of linearity reveals dynamic changes in air quality in Fort McKay, and that it is increasingly being affected by oil sands operations.

Implications: Understanding the nature and types of air quality changes occurring in a community or region is essential for the development of appropriate air quality management policies. Time-series trending of air quality data is a common tool for assessing air quality changes and is often used to assess the effectiveness of current emission management programs. The use of this tool, in the context of oil sands development, has significant limitations, and alternate air quality change analysis approaches need to be applied to ensure that the impact of this development on air quality is fully understood so that appropriate emission management actions can be taken.