The cumulative dimensions of impact in resource regions

The development of mineral and energy resources worldwide has placed pressure on regional environments, economies and communities. The cumulative impacts, or cumulative effects, arising from overlapping development have stretched political systems that have traditionally been geared toward the regulation and management of individual resource developments, presenting challenges for policy makers, resource developers and civil society actors. An equally challenging task has been realisation of the potential development dividends of mineral and energy resources in the areas of business development, infrastructure, human development or the management of resource revenues. This paper introduces a special issue on ‘Understanding and Managing Cumulative Impacts in Resource Regions’. The special issue interrogates the effectiveness of new and traditional policy responses, explores methods and strategies to better respond to cumulative impacts, and details practical examples of collaborative and coordinated approaches. Papers cover a range of environmental, economic and social issues, geographical regions, commodities, and conceptual approaches. This introductory paper introduces the cumulative impact issues that have manifest in resource regions, critically appraises current conceptions of cumulative impacts, and details management and policy responses to address the cumulative dimensions of impact.     

Territorial Recognition and Control of Changes in Dynamic Rural Areas: Analysis of the Naturbanization Process in Andalusia,Spain

This paper analyses new dynamics in rural areas of Andalusia belonging to protected environments. These dynamics relate to demographic developments that have taken place over the past 20 years, and their repercussions on changes in the use of land and regional planning in a wider context. The author calls this process 'naturbanization', building on the work of Berry and Champion on the concept of counterurbanization. Whilst most of the work on demographic movements and restructuring in rural areas is based on the trends set by city dwellers, this work aims to show the importance of environmental conditions on human behaviour and how this can have medium and long-term repercussions on the population dynamics of rural areas in Andalusia. The main results of this study show clear evidence of a nature urbanization process, as measured by a relative population development, in rural areas where protected natural areas are present. However, there are also clear differences in the population growth rates that support the presence of a naturbanization process between natural parks. In the protected natural areas situated in inland locations, population growth rates have generally been lagging behind while the protected areas situated nearer to the coast have proved to be more attractive to migration and have experienced a positive population development in the 1981‐2001 period. Apparently, the presence of protected nature is not the only factor determining the attractiveness of a rural area as a place to live. The naturbanization in rural areas can have negative implications for the ecological, landscape and social values of rural areas and therefore needs careful policy attention.     

Bovine Tuberculosis and Badger Culling in England: A Utilitarian Analysis of Policy Options

Bovine tuberculosis (bovine TB) is an important animal health policy issue in Britain, which impacts farmers, the public, domestic farmed cattle and the wild badger population. The Westminster government’s badger culling policy in England, which began in 2013, has caused considerable controversy. This is in part because the Independent Scientific Group advised against culling, based on the Randomised Badger Culling Trial. Those opposed to badger culling support more stringent cattle-based measures and the vaccination of badgers. This paper argues for ethical analysis of public policy options which impact sentient species. It provides a summary Animal Welfare Impact Assessment of (1) a do-nothing approach, (2) badger culling, and (3) badger vaccination. A utilitarian analysis is then applied to these policy options considering human wellbeing and animal welfare. The analysis compares a badger culling policy that achieves a 19% reduction in bovine TB incidence, a badger vaccination model achieving a 12.5% reduction, and a do-nothing approach. Policy options are assessed over 9 years and a longer timeframe, and uncertainty is considered. The analysis finds that non-culling approaches, particularly badger vaccination, result in greater total utility, compared to badger culling. Badger culling causes 30% reduction in the badger population in England as well as substantial harms due to the culling process. Culling is opposed by public opinion and is associated with considerable risks and uncertainty. In contrast, non-culling approaches, such as cattle-based measures and badger vaccination, are supported by public opinion and are not associated with such risks.     

Uncertainty characterization approaches for risk assessment of DBPs in drinking water: A review

The management of risk from disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water has become a critical issue over the last three decades. The areas of concern for risk management studies include (i) human health risk from DBPs, (ii) disinfection performance, (iii) technical feasibility (maintenance, management and operation) of treatment and disinfection approaches, and (iv) cost. Human health risk assessment is typically considered to be the most important phase of the risk-based decision-making or risk management studies. The factors associated with health risk assessment and other attributes are generally prone to considerable uncertainty. Probabilistic and non-probabilistic approaches have both been employed to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment. The probabilistic approaches include sampling-based methods (typically Monte Carlo simulation and stratified sampling) and asymptotic (approximate) reliability analysis (first- and second-order reliability methods). Non-probabilistic approaches include interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and possibility theory. However, it is generally accepted that no single method is suitable for the entire spectrum of problems encountered in uncertainty analyses for risk assessment. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations. In this paper, the feasibility and limitations of different uncertainty analysis approaches are outlined for risk management studies of drinking water supply systems. The findings assist in the selection of suitable approaches for uncertainty analysis in risk management studies associated with DBPs and human health risk.     

Trade-offs in assessing environmental impacts

Summary The evolution of the environmental issue has moved through the early stage of technological fixes and estimable economic costs into an area of larger uncertainty and higher information costs.The economic costs of pollution control are about one percent of the GNP. The technological fixes have improved air and water quality somewhat; but in air quality little reduction in nitrogen oxides has been achieved, and in water quality about 25 percent of the water is poor or worse, with high fecal coliform bacteria.The next stage of environmental improvement is to reduce hazardous chemical elements in the environment. In these areas, the health and biological effects are still uncertain, information costs are high, and subjective judgments are common.As uncertainty and qualitative judgments have become more prominent in environmental decisions, delays have been introduced into the decision loops, raising regulatory costs, and heightening adversary stresses between business and environmentalists. The stresses place an aura of arbitrariness over regulations in a milieu where the governability of society is already questioned. This is not the time to retreat from environmental improvement, but to try to simplify the decision process. Two possible alternatives are to codify court precedents into a more rigorous reliance on agency administration law, or to revert to the common rules of civil law that complainants must show damage and cause before an award is allowable by an administrative agency. Either of these options would free the decision making process of delays and allow it to function prospectively, while allowing environmental damages from inadequate decisions to be remedied retroactively. Potential liabilities may increase, but at least the decision process could move forward without being frustrated by regulatory delays.     

Global risk, local values?: 'Risk society' and the greenhouse issue in Newcastle, Australia

Global environmental issues have permeated many disciplines over the last decade. Within the social sciences they have sparked a debate about the extent to which any 'ecological crisis' can be seen as symptomatic of deeper changes within modernity. The strength of such an explanation is examined in this paper with reference to the 'risk society' thesis advanced by Ulrich Beck and its applicability to the case of the greenhouse issue in Australia. Australia has received much international criticism for its 'differentiated' approach to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change process. This paper examines how this approach has gained widespread currency within 'official' policy spheres through defining greenhouse risks in terms of the spatial and temporal referents of modernity: the individual; the nation-state; political and investment timetables. The possibility of alternative public understandings of greenhouse risks and responsibilities is examined through recent work undertaken in Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia. It is argued that these may represent very different interpretations of the greenhouse issue from those encountered within the 'official' policy sphere. However, without a greater recognition on the part of policy elites of the need to address an issue like greenhouse at a local scale and through public involvement, and institutions through which to do so, these interpretations will have little impact on the 'global' process of negotiating greenhouse outcomes.     

Environmental policy expansion in the EU: the intriguing case of bioinvasion regulation

ABSTRACT

While bioinvasion was an issue of low political salience in Europe, a new regulation addressing it was adopted in 2014 with strong support. This article analyzes the making of the regulation as an intriguing case of policy expansion amid economic crisis. Based on theoretical literature on drivers of EU policy integration and policy dismantling, alternative plausible explanations are explored. Our main finding is that development of economic policy consensus among member states on trade-environment nexus was crucial for progress towards regulatory action. Policy consensus has been driven by a confluence of three domestic factors: trade liberalization, market disintegration, and changing ideas about the desirability of EU-level law, with the European Commission as policy entrepreneur. Low political salience has also had an important effect. It has increased the influence of transnational conservation alliances, which have played a significant catalytic role in building consensus by shifting consciousness to economic reward of policy action vs inaction, and bringing international models for legislative reform to the EU jurisdiction.     

Ecological Impact Assessment in Data-Poor Systems: A Case Study on Metapopulation Persistence

Legislation on the protection of biodiversity (e.g., European Union Habitat and Bird Directives) increasingly requires ecological impact assessment of human activities. However, knowledge and understanding of relevant ecological processes and species responses to different types of impact are often incomplete. In this paper we demonstrate with a case study how impact assessment can be carried out for situations where data are scarce but some expert knowledge is available. The case study involves two amphibian species, the great crested newt (Triturus cristatus) and the natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) in the nature reserve the Meinweg in the Netherlands, for which plans are being developed to reopen an old railway track called the Iron Rhine. We assess the effects of this railway track and its proposed alternatives (scenarios) on the metapopulation extinction time and the occupancy times of the patches for both species using a discrete-time stochastic metapopulation model. We quantify the model parameters using expert knowledge and extrapolated data. Because of our uncertainty about these parameter values, we perform a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. This yields an estimate of the probability distribution of the model predictions and insight into the contribution of each distinguished source of uncertainty to this probability distribution. We show that with a simple metapopulation model and an extensive uncertainty analysis it is possible to detect the least harmful scenario. The ranking of the different scenarios is consistent. Thus, uncertainty analysis can enhance the role of ecological impact assessment in decision making by making explicit to what extent incomplete knowledge affects predictions.     

Geographic pollution mapping of power plant emissions to inform ex-ante environmental justice analyses

Federal and many state agencies are required to perform environmental justice analyses of their policies prior to implementing them to prevent undue impacts on low income and minority populations. However, little academic attention has been paid to the quality of these ex-ante environmental justice analyses. This investigation evaluates the methods used to perform environmental justice analyses during siting and permitting processes. The study uses both the California Energy Commission guidelines for environmental justice analyses and a method that geographically maps air pollution to perform ex-ante environmental justice analyses of three power plants. The objective is to see if results from using these two analysis methods differ substantially. Findings indicate that the mapping technique employed represents a substantial improvement over defining the impacted population using proximity methods because it accounts for the geographical distribution of the hazard. Furthermore, using multiple comparison benchmarks to determine whether the impacted population constitutes an environmental justice population improves upon existing methods by accounting for the spatial distribution of minority and low income populations and for the possibility that there is a relatively high or relatively low percentage of low income and minority persons in both the impacted and comparison regions.     

Security risks in nuclear waste management: Exceptionalism,opaqueness and vulnerability

This paper analyses some potential security risks, concerning terrorism or more mundane forms of crime, such as fraud, in management of nuclear waste using a PEST scan (of political, economic, social and technical issues) and some insights of criminologists on crime prevention. Nuclear waste arises as spent fuel from ongoing energy generation or other nuclear operations, operational contamination or emissions, and decommissioning of obsolescent facilities. In international and EU political contexts, nuclear waste management is a sensitive issue, regulated specifically as part of the nuclear industry as well as in terms of hazardous waste policies. The industry involves state, commercial and mixed public–private bodies. The social and cultural dimensions – risk, uncertainty, and future generations – resonate more deeply here than in any other aspect of waste management. The paper argues that certain tendencies in regulation of the industry, claimed to be justified on security grounds, are decreasing transparency and veracity of reporting, opening up invisible spaces for management frauds, and in doing allowing a culture of impunity in which more serious criminal or terrorist risks could arise. What is needed is analysis of this ‘exceptional’ industry in terms of the normal cannons of risk assessment – a task that this paper begins.     

Environmental Justice in Canada

Lake Zapotlán is a small (1100 ha) lake in Jalisco state, western Mexico. Two communities are located within the basin (Ciudad Guzman, population ～93,000 and Gomez Farías, population ～12,000). The lake has a productive fishery (annual harvest between 200 and 570 tonnes) comprising tilapia and carp. Extensive beds of rooted and floating Typha latifolia are found in the lake and are used in local handicraft activities. The lake receives untreated sewage from both communities and, as a result, has elevated levels of nutrients and coliform bacteria. Local human health issues, as a possible consequence of this pollution, have been identified. This paper describes a process of identifying potential indicators of ecosystem health, to be used as a management tool in developing a sustainability plan for the lake and its basin.     

Learning-by-catching: uncertain invasive-species populations and the value of information

This paper develops a model of invasive species control when the species’ population size is unknown. In the face of an uncertain population size, a resource manager's species-control efforts provide two potential benefits: (1) a direct benefit of possibly reducing the population of invasive species, and (2) an indirect benefit of information acquisition (due to learning about the population size, which reduces uncertainty). We provide a methodology that takes into account both of these benefits, and show how optimal management decisions are altered in the presence of the indirect benefit of learning. We then apply this methodology to the case of controlling the Brown Treesnake (Boiga irregularis) on the island of Saipan. We find that the indirect benefit—the value of information to reduce uncertainty—is likely to be quite large.     

Influence of fur trade,famine, and forest fires on moose and woodland caribou populations in northwestern Ontario from 1786 to 1911

Hudson’s Bay Company records were used to estimate the 1786–1911 annual number of moose (Alces alces andersonii) and caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) involved in trade by northern Ojibwa natives to the company post at Osnaburgh House (51°10′N 90°15′W) in northwest Ontario, Canada. The human population for the early 19th century, and the number and severity of human starvations from 1786 to 1911 were estimated. The extent of forest fires in the region around Osnaburgh was documented using a “fire-day” index computed from Hudson’s Bay Company journals and using qualitative archival information. It is argued that the human population was too small to have caused the observed early 19th century moose and caribou population decline solely through predation. Likewise, severe early 19th century famines were caused by climatic factors rather than by declines in moose and caribou numbers. Habitat change caused by increased forest fires correlates with the observed decline of caribou, while moose increased and subsequently collapsed as winter shelter was destroyed. A burgeoning human population, sustained during winter food shortages on potatoes donated by the Hudson’s Bay Company, then kept ungulate populations to low levels until the late 19th century. Only then did maturing forests and a new outbreak of fires provide renewed habitat for resurgences of, respectively, caribou and moose.     

Assessing Parameter Uncertainty of a Semi‐Distributed Hydrology Model for a Shallow Aquifer Dominated Environmental System

This paper examines the performance of a semi‐distributed hydrology model (i.e., Soil and Water Assessment Tool [SWAT]) using Sequential Uncertainty FItting (SUFI‐2), generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE), parameter solution (ParaSol), and particle swarm optimization (PSO). We applied SWAT to the Waccamaw watershed, a shallow aquifer dominated Coastal Plain watershed in the Southeastern United States (U.S.). The model was calibrated (2003‐2005) and validated (2006‐2007) at two U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations, using significant parameters related to surface hydrology, hydrogeology, hydraulics, and physical properties. SWAT performed best during intervals with wet and normal antecedent conditions with varying sensitivity to effluent channel shape and characteristics. In addition, the calibration of all algorithms depended mostly on Manning's n‐value for the tributary channels as the surface friction resistance factor to generate runoff. SUFI‐2 and PSO simulated the same relative probability distribution tails to those observed at an upstream outlet, while all methods (except ParaSol) exhibited longer tails at a downstream outlet. The ParaSol model exhibited large skewness suggesting a global search algorithm was less capable of characterizing parameter uncertainty. Our findings provide insights regarding parameter sensitivity and uncertainty as well as modeling diagnostic analysis that can improve hydrologic theory and prediction in complex watersheds. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

The values of biological diversity: a travelogue

Biological diversity is an abstract, scientific concept and both evaluating its condition and, to great extent, justifying its conservation requires expert knowledge. Accordingly, regulating and managing biological diversity presupposes standardisation and methods for managing uncertainty. To be acted on, the concept must be promoted, passing, in this process, through various institutions, such as intergovernmental organisations and national administrations. This paper examines how the principle of biological diversity conservation is defined, focusing on the values of biological diversity and how this notion has ‘travelled the world’. The paper includes a study of how the principle of biological diversity was applied in a specific case of insect control in Sweden.     

Environmental regulation: A new approach

Environmental regulations traditionally have been developed to limit pollution emitted to a single environmental medium at a time. This approach has been followed for a variety of reasons—political, legal, and informational, to name a few. However, more efficient environmental management could be achieved if environmental standards were issued simultaneously across all media. In this way multimedia pollutant tradeoffs could be utilized and regulatory uncertainty could be reduced.     

Assessment Tools for Urban Catchments: Developing Stressor Gradients1

Abstract: This is the first in a series of three articles designed to establish empirically defined biological indicators and thresholds for impairment for urbanized catchments, and to describe a process by which the biological condition of waterbodies in urbanized catchments can be applied. This article describes alternative gradients of urbanization for assessing and selecting a nationally applicable biological index (article 2 – Purcell et al., this issue ) and defining the potential of biological communities within a gradient of cumulative stressors (article 3 – Paul et al. this issue ). Gradients were designed to represent the most prominent mosaic of stressors found in urban settings. A primary urban gradient was assembled based on readily obtained information of urbanization to include three broad‐scale parameters: percent urban land use/land cover, population density, and road density. This gradient was used as the standard by which alternative urban gradients, which included fine‐scale instream chemical and hydrologic parameters, were assessed. Five alternative gradients were developed to provide numerous environmental management options based on availability of data from water program resources. The urban gradients were developed with the intent that they be applied throughout the country; therefore, data from three different regions of the United States (Mid‐Atlantic, Midwest, and Pacific Coast) were used to validate the urban gradient model. Our study showed that a relatively straightforward stressor gradient consisting of human population density, road density, and urban land use is useful in providing a framework for developing relevant biological indicators and evaluating the potential of biological communities as a basis for assessing attainment of designated aquatic life use.     

INVOLVING WATERSHED STAKEHOLDERS: AN ISSUE ATTRIBUTE APPROACH TO DETERMINE WILLINGNESS AND NEED1

ABSTRACT: The development of effective solutions for addressing nonpoint source pollution on a watershed basis often involves watershed stakeholders. However, success in engaging stakeholders in collaborative decision making processes varies, as watershed managers are faced with the challenges inherent to finding the right process for the decisions needed and in successfully engaging stakeholders in that process. Two characteristics that may provide guidance for determining the appropriateness of applying a collaborative process to a watershed problem are the need to collaborate and the willingness of stakeholders to engage in a collaborative decision making process. By examining seven attributes of the issues confronted by stakeholders in a collaborative process, the consequences of these attributes on the need for collaboration and stakeholders' willingness to engage can be estimated. The issue attributes include: level of uncertainty, balance of information, risk, time horizon of effects, urgency of decision, distribution of effects, and clarity of problem. The issue attribute model was applied to two collaborative decision making processes conducted by the same watershed stakeholder group in a North Carolina coastal watershed. Need and willingness to engage did not coincide for either issue; that is, stakeholders were more willing to engage on the issue that required less need for their involvement.     

Synthesis and application of insect attractants in Vietnam

Detrimental effects of synthetic pesticides on health, environment and organisms have necessitated the exploration of alternative strategies for insect control. The insect attractants represent an important link within these systems. In Vietnam, since 1970, methyleugenol and its analogues have been synthesized for mass trapping of the fruitfly Daccus dorsalis Hendel. This chemical reduced the damage on the oranges of many plantations in our country. In the period 1978–1980, for the first time some selected types of pheromones were tested. The trials verified and provided evidence of the occurrence of six species of moth in southeast Vietnam: Archips micaceanus, Archips seminubilus, Cadra caustella, Spodoptera exigua, Chysodeixis eriosoma and Parapoynx sp. The last decade has seen intense activity in the elaboration and application of some complex systems of fighting plant pests. Pheromones of moth and weevils have been prepared in the Institute of Agrochemistry and the Institute of Tropical Biology NCST: Ostrinia nubilalis Hbn, Heliothis armigera Hbn, Plutella xylostella Curt, Adoxophyes sp, Lyonetia clerckella, Trogoderma granarium, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, Diabrotica undecimpunctata, Blattela germanica, Diprion, Neodiprion, Scolytus multistriatus, Scolytus scolytus, Lasioderma sericorne, Tribolium cofusum. Some synthetic aspects of these pheromones are described. The use of pheromone traps for monitoring and mass trapping the Scolytus multistriatus, Tribolium confusum, Plutella xylostella Curt, Heliothis armigera Hbn, Cylas formicarius elegantulus will be discussed.     

Water Quality Model Uncertainty Analysis of a Point‐Point Source Phosphorus Trading Program1

Kardos, Josef S. and Christopher C. Obropta, 2011. Water Quality Model Uncertainty Analysis of a Point‐Point Source Phosphorus Trading Program. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1317–1337. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00591.x Abstract: Water quality modeling is a major source of scientific uncertainty in the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) process. The effects of these uncertainties extend to water quality trading programs designed to implement TMDLs. This study examines the effects of water quality model uncertainty on a nutrient trading program. The study builds on previous work to design a phosphorus trading program for the Nontidal Passaic River Basin in New Jersey that would implement the watershed TMDL for total phosphorus (TP). The study identified how water quality model uncertainty affects outcomes of potential trades of TP between wastewater treatment plants. The uncertainty analysis found no evidence to suggest that the outcome of trades between wastewater treatment plants, as compared with command and control regulation, will significantly increase uncertainty in the attainment of dissolved oxygen surface water quality standards, site‐specific chlorophyll a criteria, and reduction targets for diverted TP load at potential hot spots in the watershed. Each simulated trading scenario demonstrated parity with or improvement from the command and control approach at the TMDL critical locations, and low risk of hot spots elsewhere.