论美国能源监管立法与能源管理体制

美国联邦政府从20世纪30年代开始制定能源监管立法。依据集中程度和立法主题,美国能源监管立法可分为电力管控、核能监管、能源安全、放松管制等4个发展时期。根据现行美国能源立法．美国能源管理体制分为联邦和州两个层次。在联邦层次,对能源进行监管的部门有美国能源部、联邦能源监管委员会、核能监管署、环境保护署、国会内政部等。其中,能源部主要负责能源发展和安全的大政方针的制定,联邦能源监管委员会的使命在于通过管制和市场的手段执行能源立法及能源政策。在州层次,一般由州能源委员会、州公用事业委员会以及州环保局负责州的能源监管。     

全球能源安全的格局演变与地缘博弈

受经济全球化影响,国家能源安全问题的国际化趋势日益突出。21世纪以来,伴随世界多极化加速发展,世界能源安全格局演变特征及其驱动机制成为能源地缘政治研究的关键问题之一。基于这一认识,对2000年以来全球124个国家能源安全状态进行了系统评价,揭示了世界能源安全空间格局的演变特征及主要形成机制,并提出了未来能源地缘政治的博弈焦点。结果显示：（1）自21世纪初以来,全球能源安全格局演变整体上不断优化,但呈现出明显的阶段性特征,即2010年以来,全球能源安全格局优化趋势更为显著。（2）世界能源安全格局与国际地缘秩序区划基本吻合,即能源安全型国家集中分布在西欧和北美经济发达地区,较安全型国家主要分布在中欧、拉丁美洲以及亚洲高收入地区,过渡型国家主要分布在中东、东南欧以及东亚等能源体系亟需转型的地区,而较危险和危险型国家集中分布在南亚以及非洲经济欠发达地区。（3）近20年以来,世界能源安全水平显著提升主要得益于发达经济体能源使用安全维度的良好表现,而发展中国家由于创新能力较低、生产力较落后、居民可支配收入较少,其能源安全水平提升空间较小。（4）当前及今后一段时期内,全球能源安全格局将受到中美关系变化的冲击、能源转型的胁迫以及政治环境不确定性的影响。     

Energy and environmental attitudes in the green state of Denmark: Implications for energy democracy,low carbon transitions,and energy literacy

This article investigates how a mix of energy-users from Denmark perceives energy and environmental issues such as the affordability of electricity and gasoline, the seriousness of climate change, and preferences for different energy systems. Its primary source of data is a pilot survey and energy literacy test distributed in English and Danish to 328 respondents spread across the country. The survey results are used to test four propositions about energy prices, being “green,” public knowledge and competence about energy issues, and self-sufficiency and sustainable technology. The data supports the propositions that Danes identify with “being green” and prefer national and local policies that endorse sustainable technology and being self-sufficient. However, the data also challenges the propositions that Danes would prioritize low energy prices and affordability as key energy concerns and that they are knowledgeable about energy and environmental issues. In this way, a problematic gap may exist between what many academic articles (and previous surveys) report Danish attitudes to be and what this study suggests they are. Given Denmark's ambitious low-carbon goals, these findings have clear relevance to other communities and countries seeking to decarbonize their own energy sectors.     

The role of social, political, and economic interests in promoting state green electricity policies

State governments in the United States have adopted a number of policies to encourage the production of electricity from “green” energy sources. While these state-level policies have been shown to stimulate green electricity development, the rate at which such policies have been adopted by the states differs significantly. This paper examines the potential influence of a state's particular social, political, and economic interests on its propensity to adopt green electricity policies. We use an empirical model that combines various social, political and economic indicators as explanatory variables of a state's likelihood to adopt four specific green electricity policies: renewable portfolio standards, net metering rules, public benefits funds, and generation disclosure rules. Using binary logistics regressions, the results suggest that social interests, measured by the level of income, the level of education, and the degree of participation in environmental lobbying groups, are positively linked to the adoption of green electricity policies. Similarly, political interests as measured by the pro-environment voting by states’ representatives in the U.S. Congress, also play a positive role in the adoption of such policies.     

中美能源权力的空间领域与均势区演化

随着美国“页岩气革命”取得重大突破,当前世界能源贸易版图和政治经济格局加速重塑,美国成为新的传统能源权力领导者,中国和平崛起下的能源安全问题愈发严峻。基于相互依赖理论和均势理论,构建了能源权力空间理论框架和能源权力静态模型,刻画出 2003—2018年间中美能源权力的空间范围及均势区变化：（1）随着国际能源权力体系和能源贸易网络的发展演变,中国和美国的能源权力空间发生巨大变化。（2）中美煤权力和天然气权力空间基本形成较为稳定的区域组团,中国原油权力空间保持强劲的全球扩展趋势,而美国原油权力空间面临转型重构。（3）中美能源权力的空间均势区不断碎片化成点状镶嵌,相对集中于欧洲大部、非洲南部和东亚,形成资源禀赋型、资源消费型、地缘通道型、政经倾向分离型、“第三国”控制型等五种类型。（4）中国对五种类型国家的能源合作政策宜因地制宜,有所侧重。通过政治和经济双重利益吸引资源禀赋型国家,与资源市场型国家加强能源技术合作,确保地缘通道型国家安全畅通,对政经倾向分离型国家加强经济合作以影响外交政治,合理安排与“第三国”主导型国家的能源合作。结论可为中国应对全球能源转型和能源格局重塑的复杂性变局,加强对外能源贸易合作与要素资源投放,确保国家能源安全提供理论和政策借鉴。     

美国国会“电磁脉冲攻击对美国的威胁评估委员会”及其评估报告简析

为评估美国面临的电磁脉冲攻击威胁，并为美国电网等国家关键基础设施遭受敌国电磁脉冲攻击提出预防、保护和修复的建议，监督指导政府部门和军方开展电磁脉冲防御工作，美国国会从2001财年至2018财年，先后组建了四届电磁脉冲攻击威胁评估委员会。截至目前，该委员会已发布三次评估报告，其评估结论与建议为美国政府部门、研究机构等，社会各界开展各类评估、应对方案、提案提供了重要参考和依据。历届电磁脉冲攻击威胁评估委员会的成立，在美国电磁脉冲防御工作发展过程中都具有重要意义。简述了历届委员会的情况、评估要点和结论，重点分析了最新公布的2016财年委员会评估报告要点。     

2050年中国能源消费的情景预测

与全球气候变化紧密相关的能源消费问题是当今世界各国关注的热点,特别是中国能源消费规模、能源消费峰值和消费结构等更是关注的重点.论文在简要评述中国能源消费峰值、能源消费预测方法和模型的基础上,系统回顾了国内外对中国能源消费预测研究成果,侧重于人口和经济等驱动中国能源消费的两大主要因素,参考主要发达国家经济发展过程中人均能源消耗及人均累计能耗变化规律,对中国未来能源消费趋势进行了定量预测分析.结果表明:① 中国人均能耗、总量和人均累计消费量均有较大的发展潜力.2050年中国人均能耗大致在4.75~9.31 tce,上限也只相当于美国人均能耗峰值的76%;中国能源消费总量还将持续增长,2050 年的能源消费总量在61.91×10⁸~121.33×10⁸tce;1870-2050 年,中国人均累计能耗最佳分布区间为207~294 tce,只相当于1870-2012 年美国人均累计能耗的46%、德国的56%、英国的57%.② 文献梳理表明,当前预测中国能源消费峰值的各种研究成果大多认为在62×10⁸~79×10⁸tce,而峰值年份则出现在2035-2045 年,论文认为除美国、英国和德国情景将有峰值出现外,其他情景尚不可能出现峰值;③ 法国情景下中国能源消费“零”增长将于2040 年左右出现;日本、韩国以及基准情景预测显示,2035 年以后中国能源消费将进入到2%左右的低速增长期.上述研究结果表明,中国未来能源消费预测采用法国、日本、韩国情景较为合理,2035 年以后,中国能源消费将进入低速增长期.当前,中国人均收入不高,人均能耗尤其人均累计能耗处于较低水平,过早乐观承诺能源消费峰值,易使气候变化谈判陷入被动;从中国国情出发,需给中国社会经济发展留有能源消耗空间;促进能源资源的节约集约使用,积极倡导节能型生产生活方式,是中国社会经济可持续发展、保障能源安全、积极应对全球气候变化的现实需要.     

美国空间环境保障技术发展研究

在介绍世界空间环境研究的基础上,详细分析了美国/美军空间环境研究和应用服务保障建设。结果表明,美国/美军具有较强的空间环境探测能力、先进的空间环境预警预报技术和高效的空间环境效应评估分析能力,空间环境保障技术和保障服务能力实属世界一流。     

Vitamins,folic acid and neural tube defects: Comments on investigations in the United States

No clear answer concerning whether multivitamin/folate supplementation prevents neural tube defects (NTDs) is provided by three studies in the United States. All these studies are occurrence in nature, no recurrence studies having been conducted. The Atlanta Birth Defects Study is subject to pronounced memory and recall biases, the length between event and interview being as long as 16 years. In a second study (Boston University), objections can be raised to certain aspects of the experimental design, and the claim that 22 per cent of women started vitamins sufficiently early after pregnancy diagnosis to influence NTD formation is suspicious. Our NICHD case control study of 541 women in California and Illinois revealed no evidence for multivitamins or folic acid preventing NTDs. U.S. public policy-makers face difficulties in applying results of recurrence or occurrence studies in high-risk areas to low-risk areas in the U.S.     

The macro implications of a complete transformation of U.S. agricultural production to organic farming practices

A national interregional linear programming model of U.S. agriculture is used to evaluate and compare two conventional and three organic production alternatives. The objective is to estimate the effects on production, supply prices, land use, farm income, and export potential, of a complete transformation of U.S. agriculture to organic practices. Crop yields and production costs are estimated for 150 producing regions for seven crops under both conventional and organic methods. Results indicate that compared with conventional methods, widespread organic farming leads to a decrease in total production, lower export potential, higher supply prices, higher value of production, lower costs of production, and higher net farm income. The United States domestic crop demand can be met with organic methods, but would be more expensive. Some interregional shifts in crop production would also occur.     

Biogas in the United States: estimating future production and learning from international experiences

The substitution of biogas, an energy source derived from biological feedstock, for fossil natural gas (NG) can mitigate the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, making it an attractive renewable energy source in a carbon-constrained future. Although upgraded, pipeline-quality biogas can augment the NG market supply in the United States of America (USA), researchers and energy industry experts have little studied its long-term potential. This report estimates (1) levelized costs of energy for biogas production facilities operating with landfill waste, animal manure, wastewater sludge, and biomass residue feedstocks, (2) feedstock and technology pathway-specific biogas supply functions, and (3) the aggregate national biogas supply potential for the USA by 2040. Under a range of specified assumptions, generation of biogas could be expanded to approximately 3–5 % of the total domestic NG market at projected prices of $5–6/MMBtu, with the largest potential source coming from thermal gasification of agriculture and forest residues and biomass. As market signals have not spurred widespread adoption of biogas in the USA, policy incentives, similar to those used in the European Union (E.U.), may be necessary to increase its production and use. Bioenergy policy in the E.U. and the resulting market penetration achieved there therefore provides important lessons for how biogas markets in the USA can overcome barriers to market expansion and, in doing so, provide substantial climate mitigation benefits.     

浑河沈阳段地表水有机污染物对水环境影响的安全性评估

利用GB3838— 2 0 0 2《地表水质量标准》和美国EPA推荐的“地面水质量标准”对浑河沈阳段地表水中的有机污染状况进行了安全性评估。用两种不同的方法评估 ,结果虽然有所差别 ,但结论是一致的。即 :浑河沈阳段地表水有机污染物十分严重 ,已经对人体健康和生态环境安全构成危害     

美国海军舰艇命名体系研究

美国海军舰艇命名体系由任命前缀、舰艇名称、分类代号、舷号4类要素构成,首先分析了每类要素对于命名体系的贡献,然后基于美国海军舰艇命名体系,以美国海军舰艇名册为数据源,通过要素提取、规则建立等步骤分析美国海军现役舰艇组成。经过分析,美国现役715艘舰艇分为战斗舰、辅助舰、战斗艇、支援艇、未在分类代号中定义等5大类67类型177级别,通过对比基于类型与级别规则、基于任命前缀规则的结果挖掘出美国海军现役舰艇组成规律。     

中国城市居民生活能源碳排放的时空格局及影响因素分析

随着经济社会的发展与人民生活水平的提高,生活用能强度逐年增大,城市居民生活能源碳排放日益成为碳排放的新增长点.本文采用Theil指数、空间自相关分析了我国城市居民生活能源碳排放的时空格局演变特征,并利用STIRPAT模型分析了影响城市居民生活能源碳排放的主要因素.结果表明:12001—2012年我国城市居民生活能源碳排放总量及人均生活能源碳排放量均呈增长趋势,其年增长率分别为9.69%、3.29%;2八大经济区域间城市居民人均生活能源碳排放的差异是构成我国城市居民人均生活能源碳排放总体差异的主要原因,其对总差异的贡献率达到了57.90%;3我国城市居民人均生活能源碳排放具有显著的空间正相关性,2001—2012年间城市居民人均生活能源碳排放的"冷点"区变化较为稳定,主要分布在东部和南部经济区,而"热点"区主要分布在西北、东北和黄河中游经济区;4城市人口规模、城市居民可支配收入、城市居民生活消费支出、城市居民年龄结构均对城市居民生活能源碳排放量具有加剧作用,而城市居民能源消费结构具有减缓作用,且北方城市居民生活能源碳排放量明显高于南方;5现有样本数据支持环境Kuznets曲线假说,即随着经济的发展,城市居民生活能源碳排放量存在转折点.     

参加交通部溢油应急技术代表团赴美培训的启示和思考

交通部于2002年5月31日—6月20日组织各直属海事局从事船舶防污染管理的17名专业人员赴美国考察、培训海上溢油应急技术。代表团参观了美国海岸警卫队、环保局、溢油应急办公室和防污基金等单位。文中总结了美国现行的海上溢油应急反应体系和防污基金的建立和管理，提出了建立中国在防治海上溢油和防污基金的设想。     

上海市能源提高效率和优化结构对居民健康影响的评价

为定量评价上海市提高能源效率和优化能源结构后，因大气环境质量改善而获得的居民健康效益，采用定量健康危险度评价的方法，结合大气污染物浓度每增高一单位所产生的健康损失，对能源效率提高和结构调整实施后，大气污染物浓度的变化对上海市居民未来健康状况的影响进行定量评估，结果表明，与不实施相应能源政策的基线场景相比，上海实施能源效率提高和结构调整后，2010年和2020年可以分别减少2937例和6834例与大气污染相关的死亡，同时还可减少一定数量的发病，住院和门诊人数。     

Public policy as a part of transforming energy systems: framing bioenergy in Finnish energy policy

Government interventions have been identified as important for energy systems change, because they can either facilitate or hinder transitions toward more sustainable energy systems. This article analyses how bioenergy options have been framed in Finnish policy strategies and how the framing has changed over time. The empirical material includes the content of 15 government programmes and nine national energy/climate strategies. On the basis of this assessment, both the link between bioenergy framings in strategies and the actual transformation of Finnish bioenergy systems are explored.On the basis of bioenergy framings, the development of energy policy can be divided into three phases: support for domestic energy sources in 1979-1991, support for wood- and industry-based bioenergy in 1992-1998, and diversified bioenergy in the context of climate change in 1999-2010. For two decades, primarily wood-based bioenergy was supported despite alternative technological developments occurring elsewhere. After the turn of the millennium, the importance of climate policy increased and alternative bioenergy sources were raised on the government policy agenda, also resulting in some new policy instruments. Rather than adopting a visionary outlook to guide system transformation, climate and energy policy has strengthened those technological options that have been selected elsewhere. If public policies are to enhance the shift toward low-carbon, sustainable energy systems, they would need to be more comprehensive, be more consistent over time, and emphasise energy use more.     

Socio-economic impacts of climate change on rural United States

Directly or indirectly, positively or negatively, climate change will affect all sectors and regions of the United States. The impacts, however, will not be homogenous across regions, sectors, population groups or time. The literature specifically related to how climate change will affect rural communities, their resilience, and adaptive capacity in the United States (U.S.) is scarce. This article bridges this knowledge gap through an extensive review of the current state of knowledge to make inferences about the rural communities vulnerability to climate change based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios. Our analysis shows that rural communities tend to be more vulnerable than their urban counterparts due to factors such as demography, occupations, earnings, literacy, poverty incidence, and dependency on government funds. Climate change impacts on rural communities differs across regions and economic sectors; some will likely benefit while others lose. Rural communities engaged in agricultural and forest related activities in the Northeast might benefit, while those in the Southwest and Southeast could face additional water stress and increased energy cost respectively. Developing adaptation and mitigation policy options geared towards reducing climatic vulnerability of rural communities is warranted. A set of regional and local studies is needed to delineate climate change impacts across rural and urban communities, and to develop appropriate policies to mitigate these impacts. Integrating research across disciplines, strengthening research-policy linkages, integrating ecosystem services while undertaking resource valuation, and expanding alternative energy sources, might also enhance coping capacity of rural communities in face of future climate change.     

我国北方典型地区居民呼吸暴露参数研究

呼吸暴露参数是准确估算人体对污染物的暴露剂量和健康风险评估的重要参数之一,而我国目前对于该项工作的调查研究较少.采用问卷调查的方式对我国北方典型地区——太原的2 860名受试者进行了时间-活动模式的研究,结合人体能量估算模型,计算出适合该地区居民的呼吸速率参数,并与国内外情况进行对比分析.结果表明:该地区居民室内日平均活动时间为16.1～18.4 h;不同性别、不同年龄组的城市和农村居民从事各种强度活动的时间有很大差异;同时得出,该市城市居民长期暴露的呼吸速率参数为10.72～14.53 m3/d,农村居民为15.61～22.59 m3/d.与我国相关文献数据和美国环境保护署(US EPA)的数据相比,如果直接引用US EPA的数据,将会给健康风险带来30%～50%的偏差.      

Public support for carrot,stick, and no-government water quality policies

Public support for environmental policy provides an important foundation for democratic governance. Numerous policy innovations may improve nonpoint source pollution, but little research has examined which types of individuals are likely to support various runoff reduction policies. We conducted a household mail survey of 1136 residents in southern Wisconsin. In general, residents were more likely to support water quality policies if they were communitarians, egalitarians, concerned about water pollution, and perceived water quality as poor. The majority of respondents somewhat to strongly supported all of the seven proposed water quality policies, but opposed relying on voluntary action without government involvement on farms. Residents had higher support for incentives and market-based approaches (carrot policies) than regulation and taxes (stick policies). A more complicated pattern emerged in within-subject comparisons of residents’ views of carrot and stick approaches. Stick approaches polarized respondents by decreasing support among people with individualistic worldviews, while slightly increasing support among people with communitarian worldviews. Residents with an agricultural occupation were more likely to support voluntary, non-governmental approaches for reducing agricultural runoff, and were also more likely to support regulation for reducing urban lawn runoff. This research highlights the dominant role of cultural worldviews and the secondary roles of water pollution concern, perceived water quality, and self-interest in explaining support for diverse policies to reduce nonpoint source pollution.