Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change: Alternative Analytical Approaches

Uncertainty plays a key role in the economics of climate change, and research on this topic has led to a substantial body of literature. However, the discussion on the policy implications of uncertainty is still far from being settled, partly because the uncertainty of climate change comes from a variety of sources and takes diverse forms. To reflect the multifaceted nature of climate change uncertainty better, an increasing number of analytical approaches have been used in the studies of integrated assessment models of climate change. The employed approaches could be seen as complements rather than as substitutes, each of which possesses distinctive strength for addressing a particular type of problems. We review these approaches—specifically, the non-recursive stochastic programming, the real option analysis, and the stochastic dynamic programming—their corresponding literatures and their respective policy implications. We also identify the current research gaps associated with the need for further developments of new analytical approaches.     

Sampling of Sparse Species with Probability Proportional to Prediction

In this article, a 3P sampling (Probability Proportional to Prediction) approach is presented for surveying sparse species connected to certain types of substrates. The method uses the surveyors judgement of the probability of finding the species on a substrate as the base for selection of substrates for species inventories. The method is presented together with estimators, variances and variance estimators. The method is first presented for sampling based on all substrates in a study area and then as a subsampling technique in a two-stage design in which plots or strips are selected in a first stage. The presented approach was evaluated as a subsampling technique in a strip survey of calicioid lichen species associated with coarse broadleaf trees. In comparison with a simple random subsampling without replacement, 3P subsampling was in one study area found to be an improvement with 30–55% in terms of standard errors. The improvement was more modest in the other study area, only between 10–16%. The strip survey with 3P subsampling was more cost-efficient than a strip survey without subsampling except in one case. Based on the results in the test, 3P sampling seems to have a potential for sampling sparse species.     

Assessment of sampling and analytical uncertainty of trace element contents in arable field soils

Assessment of trace element contents in soils is required in Germany (and other countries) before sewage sludge application on arable soils. The reliability of measured element contents is affected by measurement uncertainty, which consists of components due to (1) sampling, (2) laboratory repeatability (intra-lab) and (3) reproducibility (between-lab). A complete characterization of average trace element contents in field soils should encompass the uncertainty of all these components. The objectives of this study were to elucidate the magnitude and relative proportions of uncertainty components for the metals As, B, Cd, Co, Cr, Mo, Ni, Pb, Tl and Zn in three arable fields of different field-scale heterogeneity, based on a collaborative trial (CT) (standardized procedure) and two sampling proficiency tests (PT) (individual sampling procedure). To obtain reference values and estimates of field-scale heterogeneity, a detailed reference sampling was conducted. Components of uncertainty (sampling person, sampling repetition, laboratory) were estimated by variance component analysis, whereas reproducibility uncertainty was estimated using results from numerous laboratory proficiency tests. Sampling uncertainty in general increased with field-scale heterogeneity; however, total uncertainty was mostly dominated by (total) laboratory uncertainty. Reproducibility analytical uncertainty was on average by a factor of about 3 higher than repeatability uncertainty. Therefore, analysis within one single laboratory and, for heterogeneous fields, a reduction of sampling uncertainty (for instance by larger numbers of sample increments and/or a denser coverage of the field area) would be most effective to reduce total uncertainty. On the other hand, when only intra-laboratory analytical uncertainty was considered, total sampling uncertainty on average prevailed over analytical uncertainty by a factor of 2. Both sampling and laboratory repeatability uncertainty were highly variable depending not only on the analyte but also on the field and the sampling trial. Comparison of PT with CT sampling suggests that standardization of sampling protocols reduces sampling uncertainty, especially for fields of low heterogeneity.     

SI-traceable certification of Cu, Cr, Cd and Pb in sediment and fly ash candidate reference materials

Many fields in environmental analytical chemistry deal with very low limits and thresholds as set by governmental legislations or transnational regulations. The need for the accuracy, comparability and traceability of analytical measurements in environmental analytical chemistry has significantly increased and total uncertainties are even asked for by accreditation bodies of environmental laboratories. This paper addresses achieving these goals to guarantee accuracy, quality control, quality assurance or validation of a method by means of certified reference materials. The assessment of analytical results in certified reference materials must be as accurate as possible and every single step has to be fully evaluated. This paper presents the SI-traceable certification of Cu, Cr, Cd and Pb contents in geological and environmentally relevant matrices (three sediments and one fly ash sample). Certification was achieved using isotope dilution (ID) ICPMS as a primary method of measurement. In order to reduce significantly the number of analytical steps and intermediate samples a multiple spiking approach was developed. The full methodology is documented and total uncertainty budgets are calculated for all certified values. A non-element specific sample digestion process was optimised. All wet chemical digestion methods examined resulted in a more or less pronounced amount of precipitate. It is demonstrated that these precipitates originate mainly from secondary formation of fluorides (essentially CaF2) and that their formation takes place after isotopic equilibration. The contribution to the total uncertainty of the final values resulting from the formation of such precipitates was in general < 0.1% for all investigated elements. Other sources of uncertainty scrutinised included the moisture content determination, procedural blank determination, cross-contamination from the different spike materials, correction for spectral interferences, instrumental background and deadtime effects, as well as the use of either certified values or IUPAC data in the IDMS equation. The average elemental content in the sediment samples was 30-130 micrograms g-1 for Pb, 0.5-3 micrograms g-1 for Cd and 50-70 micrograms g-1 for Cu. Cr was measured in one sample and was about 60 micrograms g-1. The concentrations in the fly ash sample were up to 2 orders of magnitude higher. Expanded uncertainty for the investigated elements was about 3% (coverae factor k = 2) except for Cr, (measured by high resolution ICPMS), for which the expanded uncertainty was about 7% (k = 2).     

Life Cycle Assessment to support the quantification of the environmental impacts of an event

In recent years, several tools have been used to define and quantify the environmental impacts associated with an event; however, a lack of uniform approaches for conducting environmental evaluations has been revealed. The aim of this paper is to evaluate whether the Life Cycle Assessment methodology, which is rarely applied to an event, can be an appropriate tool for calculating the environmental impacts associated with the assembly, disassembly, and use phase of an event analysing in particular the components and the displays used to establish the exhibits. The aim is also to include the issues reported by ISO 20121:2012 involving the interested parties that can be monitored but also affected by the event owner, namely the event organiser, the workforce and the supply chain.A small event held in Northern Italy was selected as the subject of the research. The results obtained show that the main contributors are energy consumption for lighting and heating and the use of aluminium materials, such as bars for supporting the spotlights, carpet and the electronic equipment. A sensitivity analysis for estimating the effects of the impact assessment method chosen has also been conducted and an uncertainty analysis has been performed using the Monte Carlo technique. This study highlighted the importance of the energy consumed by heating and lighting on the environmental implications, and indicated that the preparation and assembly should always be considered when quantifying the environmental profile of an event.     

Energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence systems as analytical tool for assessment of contaminated soils

To determine the heavy metal content in soil samples at contaminated locations, a static and time consuming procedure is used in most cases. Soil samples are collected and analyzed in the laboratory at high quality and high analytical costs. The demand by government and consultants for a more dynamic approach and by customers requiring performances in which analyses are performed in the field with immediate feedback of the analytical results, is growing. Especially during the follow-up of remediation projects or during the determination of the sampling strategy, field analyses are advisable. For this purpose four types of ED-XRF systems, ranging from portable up to high performance laboratory systems, have been evaluated. The evaluation criteria are based on the performance characteristics for all the ED-XRF systems such as limit of detection, accuracy and the measurement uncertainty on one hand, and also the influence of the sample pretreatment on the obtained results on the other hand. The study proved that the field portable system and the bench top system, placed in a mobile van, can be applied as field techniques, resulting in semi-quantitative analytical results. A limited homogenization of the analyzed sample significantly increases the representativeness of the soil sample. The ED-XRF systems can be differentiated by their limits of detection which are a factor of 10 to 20 higher for the portable system. The accuracy of the results and the measurement uncertainty also improved using the bench top system. Therefore, the selection criteria for applicability of both field systems are based on the required detection level and also the required accuracy of the results.     

Sampling and analysis for radon-222 dissolved in ground water and surface water

Radon-222 is a naturally occurring radioactive gas in the uranium-238 decay series that has traditionally been called, simply, radon. The lung cancer risks associated with the inhalation of radon decay products have been well documented by epidemiological studies on populations of uranium miners.The realization that radon is a public health hazard has raised the need for sampling and analytical guidelines for field personnel. Several sampling and analytical methods are being used to document radon concentrations in ground water and surface water worldwide but no convenient, single set of guidelines is available. Three different sampling and analytical methods-bubbler, liquid scintillation, and field screening-are discussed in this paper. The bubbler and liquid scintillation methods have high accuracy and precision, and small analytical method detection limits of 0.2 and 10 pCi/l (picocuries per liter), respectively. The field screening method generally is used as a qualitative reconnaissance tool.     

Improving Efficiency Of Uncertainty Analysis In Complex Integrated Assessment Models: The Case Of The Rains Emission Module

Abstact Ever since the Regional Acidification Information and Simulation Model (RAINS) has been constructed, the treatment of uncertainty has remained an issue of major interest. In a recent review of the model performed for the Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) programme of the European Commission, a more systematic and structured uncertainty analysis has been recommended. This paper aims at contributing to the scientific debate how this can be achieved. Because of its complex structure on the one hand and limited research resources (time, computational capacities) on the other hand a full-blown uncertainty analysis in RAINS is hardly feasible. Therefore, all types of uncertainty require more efficient ways for uncertainty analysis. With respect to parameter uncertainty, we propose to focus research efforts for uncertainty analysis on key parameters. Among different approaches to select key parameters that have been discussed in the literature screening methods seem to be particularly appropriate for complex, deterministic Integrated Assessment models such as RAINS. Surprisingly, in Integrated Assessment modelling for air pollution problems of screening design have not been taken up so far. As a case study we consider the emission module of RAINS. We show that its structure allows for a straightforward and effective screening procedure     

The problem of using fixed-area subsampling methods to estimate macroinvertebrate richness: a case study with Neotropical stream data

Subsampling has been widely applied in the laboratory to process freshwater macroinvertebrate samples. Currently, many governmental agencies and research groups apply the fixed-count approach, targeting a number of individuals per sample, and at the same time keeping track of the number of quadrats (fraction of the sample) processed. However, fixed-area methods are still in use. The objective of this paper was to evaluate the reliability of macroinvertebrate taxonomic richness estimates developed from processing a standard number of subsampling quadrats (i.e., fixed-area approaches). We used a dataset from 18 tropical stream sites experiencing three different levels of human disturbance (most-, intermediate-, and least-disturbed). With 12 quadrats processed (half the sample), the collection curves started to stabilize, and for more than half of the sites studied, it was possible to sample at least 80 % of the total taxonomic richness of the sample. However, we observed that the minimum number of quadrats to achieve 80 % of taxonomic richness was strongly negatively correlated with the number of individuals collected in each site: the fewer the individuals in a sample, the greater the processed proportion of that sample needed to represent it properly. Thus our results indicate that for any given areal subsampling effort (any fixed fraction of the sample), samples with different numbers of individuals will be represented differently in terms of the proportion of the total number of taxa of the whole samples, those with greater numbers being overestimated and those with fewer numbers being underestimated. Therefore, we do not recommend the use of fixed-area subsampling methods alone if the main purpose is to measure and analyze taxonomic richness; instead, we encourage researchers to use fixed-count approaches for this purpose.     

Development of a calibration system to evaluate VOC losses in a branch enclosure

Considerable uncertainties are associated with the experimental estimates of emission rates of different volatile organic compound (VOC) species from the biosphere to the atmosphere. Some of this uncertainty derives from the sampling and analytical procedures used in emission rate measurements. A calibration system was developed in order to evaluate possible errors in the measurements of biogenic emission rates using a branch enclosure system. Two types of calibration procedures were tested, a standard additions technique and an internal standard procedure. Both techniques were used to evaluate possible losses while sampling isoprene and monoterpenes, which are the most abundant VOCs of biogenic origin. The losses to Teflon lines and the empty sampling system were tested and losses to the branch enclosure system installed on two VOC emitting plant species were evaluated. A considerable loss of isoprene (approximately 18% of inflow concentration 65 ng l(-1)) to the empty enclosure system and to the system installed on the plant was measured, but no losses of monoterpenes were observed.     

Validation of a European standard for the determination of hexavalent chromium in solid material

A European standard for the determination of Cr(vi) in solid material has been elaborated in the framework of an international co-operation and finally validated in the course of an interlaboratory comparison. The procedure is based on the alkaline digestion prescribed by EPA method 3060A followed by ion chromatography and determines an operationally defined content of Cr(vi), including water-soluble and insoluble chromates. A preliminary robustness study was carried out in order to compare different extraction methodologies and to study the equivalency of different analytical methods for the determination of Cr(vi) in alkaline extracts of soil and waste materials. During an interlaboratory validation trial with 19 European laboratories a set of 4 samples (2 soil and 2 waste samples) was analysed to determine performance characteristics for different combinations of digestion and detection methods. With the procedures prescribed by the new European standard (EN 15192) acceptable results were obtained for both soil samples and one of the waste samples (sludge). However, for the second waste sample (fly ash) a large deviation in analytical results was observed. This indicates that particularly for waste materials a possible occurrence of strong matrix effects has to be considered and supplementary quality control data are needed in order to assess the validity of analytical results. The accuracy of the determination of Cr(vi) in solid matrices remains a challenging field in terms of maximum extraction efficiency and minimum species interconversion.     

The Cost of Co-viability in the Australian Northern Prawn Fishery

Fisheries management must address multiple, often conflicting objectives in a highly uncertain context. In particular, while the bio-economic performance of trawl fisheries is subject to high levels of biological and economic uncertainty, the impact of trawling on broader biodiversity is also a major concern for their management. The purpose of this study is to propose an analytical framework to formally assess the trade-offs associated with balancing biological, economic and non-target species conservation objectives. We use the Australian Northern Prawn Fishery (NPF), which is one of the most valuable federally managed commercial fisheries in Australia, as a case study. We develop a stochastic co-viability assessment of the fishery under multiple management objectives. Results show that, due to the variability in the interactions between the fishery and the ecosystem, current management strategies are characterized by biological and economic risks. Results highlight the trade-offs between respecting biological, economic and non-target species conservation constraints at each point in time with a high probability and maximizing the net present value of the fishery.     

Coping with uncertainty in environmental impact assessments: Open techniques

Uncertainty is virtually unavoidable in environmental impact assessments (EIAs). From the literature related to treating and managing uncertainty, we have identified specific techniques for coping with uncertainty in EIAs. Here, we have focused on basic steps in the decision-making process that take place within an EIA setting. More specifically, we have identified uncertainties involved in each decision-making step and discussed the extent to which these can be treated and managed in the context of an activity or project that may have environmental impacts. To further demonstrate the relevance of the techniques identified, we have examined the extent to which the EIA guidelines currently used in Colombia consider and provide guidance on managing the uncertainty involved in these assessments. Some points that should be considered in order to provide greater robustness in impact assessments in Colombia have been identified. These include the management of stakeholder values, the systematic generation of project options, and their associated impacts as well as the associated management actions, and the evaluation of uncertainties and assumptions. We believe that the relevant and specific techniques reported here can be a reference for future evaluations of other EIA guidelines in different countries.     

Sampling and analytical methodology development for the determination of primary and secondary low molecular weight amines in ambient air

In this project, a sampling device and an analytical method have been developed to simultaneously analyse the most frequently found low molecular weight amines, including aliphatic, aromatic and alcohol amines. These amines are diethanolamine, ethanolamine, methylamine, isopropylamine, morpholine, dimethylamine, and aniline. A sampling device was developed using a 37 mm cassette with glass fibre filters impregnated with sulfuric acid. Immediately after sampling, the filter was transferred to vials containing a solution of dansyl chloride. Dansyl chloride was used for derivatisation because it forms aromatic sulfonamides that are fluorescent and easy to protonate for MS detection. The effect of using an internal standard made with the dansylated derivative of 1-(2-methoxyphenyl)piperazine (MOPIP) on the uncertainty and efficiency of the method was also evaluated. This internal standard was spiked directly onto filters. The coupling of HPLC/ESI-MS was used for the simultaneous analysis of all the derivatives. This method showed detection limits of about 0.03 microg mL(-1) to 0.3 microg mL(-1) of amine with an average expanded uncertainty of 3% to 6% depending on the amine. The methodology recoveries are close to 100% for all the amines, and the overall estimated expanded uncertainties vary between 10% and 13% depending on the amine. This new strategy will be useful in evaluating workplace air since a unique sampling system will be used, independent of the amine to be quantified.     

A multicriteria analytical framework for sustainability evaluation under methodological uncertainties

Multicriteria analysis is widely used to perform sustainability evaluation for purposes such as decision making or progress assessment following a chosen sustainable development concept. The stages of multicriteria analysis include indicator selection, data characterization, normalization, weighting, and aggregation. However, due to the various framings of sustainability, non-equivalent approaches could be adopted at each stage, introducing methodological uncertainty. Consequently, depending on the methods chosen, divergent and conflicting conclusions or decisions may result. This paper addresses the issue of methodological uncertainties in sustainability evaluation by analyzing how methodological uncertainties arise during multicriteria analysis, then proposing an analytical framework that employs uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to quantify and manage the effects of methodological uncertainties. The consideration of methodological uncertainties in the structure of multicriteria sustainability evaluation shifts the analysis from deterministic to probabilistic, which is advantageous to arrive at robust and homogenized sustainability conclusions or decisions.     

Neutrosophic multi-criteria evaluation of sustainable alternatives for the structure of single-family homes

This paper proposes a methodology for the assessment of the sustainability among three different structural design alternatives for a single-family home. The response associated with each alternative has been measured using 43 indicators considering all stages of the life cycle. A decision-making model is carried out on the basis of a neutrosophic group analytical hierarchy process (NAHP-G) capturing the maximum information in terms of credibility, inconsistency and indetermination. The 9 criteria on which an expert group intervenes are finally evaluated using VIKOR. The results show that non-probabilistic uncertainties influence the weights obtained, with maximum deviations in the criteria between 11.91% and 4.95%, if compared to conventional AHP. From the methodology it is obtained that the technological alternative with non-conventional concrete performs best in sustainable terms. Although the industrialized option has less environmental impact, only the simultaneous consideration of the economic, environmental and social pillars in a project will lead to appropriate sustainable designs.     

6项环境监测分析方法标准中钴、铬、钼、钛的不确定度分析及其在达标判定中的应用

研究依据测定不确定度的基本理论和ISO 21748：2017《采用重复性、再现性和正确度评估测量不确定度的导则》，提出了基于中国环境监测分析方法标准多家实验室验证中已获得的数据计算合成标准不确定度的方法，将方法标准中规定的重复性、再现性等指标与合成标准不确定度进行了衔接。分析了近年发布的6项水质监测分析方法标准中钴、铬、钼、钛等4种金属元素的相对合成标准不确定度，结果表明：被测量的浓度是影响方法标准测量不确定度的重要因素。对于火焰原子吸收分光光度法（FAAS）和石墨炉原子吸收分光光度法（GAAS），样品浓度为方法标准测定下限3倍左右时，测定结果的相对标准不确定度可保持在15%以下；对于电感耦合等离子体发射光谱法（ICP-AES），样品浓度为方法标准测定下限3~5倍时，测定结果的相对标准不确定度为12%~17%；对于电感耦合等离子体质谱法（ICP-MS），钛元素浓度为测定下限3倍左右时，相对标准不确定度在15%以下，而钴、铬、钼的浓度在测定下限40~100倍以上时，相对标准不确定度在15%以下。6项方法标准可分别用于《地表水环境质量标准》（GB 3838—2002）以及22项水污染物排放标准钴、铬、钼、钛的达标监测。     

环境气体标准样品量值的计算及不确定度分析

依据《气体分析校准气体混合物的制备重量法》（1SO6142—2001）和《气体分析气体标准样品组成的测定和校验比较法》（ISO6143—2001），阐述了环境气体标准样品不同定值方法的量值计算及不确定度来源，并比较了同一气体标准样品采用不同定值方法得到的不同量值结果及不确定度：     

Evaluation of Four Live-Sorting Methods for Use in Rapid Biological Assessments Using Macroinvertebrates

Rapid bioassessment (RBA) techniques for evaluating river health are now commonplace and there is much debate on the best methods that should be used. One of the important features of RBA is subsampling of large qualitative or semi-quantitative samples to reduce the costs associated with handling and identifying animals. In Australia, the Australian River Assessment System (known as “AusRivAS”) has been widely used since 1994 to monitor and assess river health. To test the efficacy of AusRivAS protocols, four live-sorting protocols, the standard Australian River Assessment Scheme (AusRivAS) and three suggested improvements, were evaluated in three habitat types and in clear and turbid rivers. The suggested improvements included using magnification during the live-sort process, separate sorting of coarse and fine fractions and increasing the amount of time or animals collected. There was no statistically significant difference between any of the trialed live-sort protocols in terms of the number of taxa collected compared to the number remaining, the community composition, the abundances of individual families collected, or the AusRivAS Observed/Expected taxa ratios. The lack of differences between the live-sort protocols suggests that technicians using the current standard AusRivAS protocols are able to effectively obtain a representative subsample of animals from the whole kick or sweep net qualitative sample. This has the advantage of cost savings because no retraining will be required, field procedures will remain uncomplicated and previous river health assessments will remain valid.     

X射线荧光光谱法测定土壤样品中铅的不确定度评定

用实例对X射线荧光光谱法测定土壤样品中铅的不确定度进行了评定.测量结果的不确定度由仪器综合稳定性、制样、标准物质、回归工作曲线、重复测量等所引入的不确定度分量组成.在对各个不确定度分量进行量化的基础上,通过合成得到测量结果的标准不确定度,再乘以95%置信概率下的扩展因子2,得到测量结果的扩展不确定度.