Learning,participation, and adaptation: exploring agri-environmental programmes

This paper explores the perceptions of policy makers and rural agricultural producers in respect of policy framing and adaptation to climate change, social learning and stakeholder input (participation) surrounding two successful agri-environmental programmes in Saskatchewan, Canada. Given the record of success of these two programmes in reducing vulnerability to climate change, this study provides an opportunity to explore certain attributes of adaptive management, including: what attributes make policy and programmes responsive; how government can frame programmes facilitating adaptation to climate change; what types of mechanisms can or should be used to engage with producers; and perhaps most importantly, what producers expect of government, government policies and programmes in relation to adaptation to climate change.     

Spatially identifying vulnerable communities to climate change impact in South Australia

The impending form and extent of climate change and its direct impacts present disproportionate challenges for the most socially and economically disadvantaged groups within populations. Evaluating the vulnerability of disadvantaged groups in the context of climate change has presented tremendous theoretical, methodological and policy challenges especially where vulnerability assessment research is focused at the local community level. This study addresses the challenges by developing an interdisciplinary methodology, based on expert knowledge, and uses the state of South Australia as a case study. It focuses on key indicators that measure the exposure of local communities to climate change and socio-economic vulnerabilities of local populations. A main contribution in this study is the novel incorporation of physical, environmental and socio-demographic data sets and extensive use of spatial modelling and estimation methods to spatially define climate change and social vulnerability “hot spots”. This paper assesses vulnerability under moderate and high Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change CO₂ emission scenarios in order to generate an assessment model to be used before planning is done. The result is the creation of a practical tool through which decision-makers can better understand how the complexity of one's local spatial context influences the unique exposure, which different vulnerable communities have, to the impacts of climate change. This paper presents a useful tool that can be used in the initial assessment phase by planners and policy-makers to better assist those who are limited in their ability to adapt to climate change.     

Vulnerability of Fraser River sockeye salmon to climate change: A life cycle perspective using expert judgments

Fraser River sockeye salmon have been the basis for a major commercial fishery shared by Canada and the United States, and an important cultural foundation for many aboriginal groups; they are also of huge ecological significance throughout the Fraser Basin. The potential for altered aquatic habitat and temperature regimes due to climate change is an important concern for Fraser River sockeye salmon. This paper characterizes the vulnerability of Fraser River sockeye salmon to future climate change using an approach that is novel on three counts. First, previous efforts to assess the vulnerability of salmon to climate change have largely focused on only part of the life cycle, whereas we consider climate vulnerability at all stages in the life cycle. Second, we use the available scientific literature to provide a basis for structuring and eliciting judgments from fisheries science and management experts who research and manage these systems. Third, we consider prospects for mitigating the effects of climate change on sockeye salmon. Tests showed that participants’ judgments differentiated in statistically significant ways among questions that varied in terms of life stages, spawning regions and climate scenarios. The consensus among participants was that Fraser River sockeye are most vulnerable to climate change during the egg and returning adult stages of the life cycle. A high temperature scenario was seen as imposing the greatest risk on sockeye stocks, particularly those that migrate to the upper reaches of the Fraser River system and spawn earlier in the summer. The inability to alter water temperature and the highly constrained nature of sockeye management, with competing gear types and sequential fisheries over a long distance, suggest the potential to mitigate adverse effects is limited. Fraser River sockeye already demonstrate a great deal of adaptive capacity in utilizing heterogeneous habitats in different river sub-basins. This adaptability points to the potential value of policies to make stocks more resilient to uncertain futures.     

Science-practice interactions linked to climate adaptation in two contexts: municipal planning and forestry in Sweden

This paper examines the science-practice interface in the process of adapting to climate change in society. This paper analyses science-based stakeholder dialogues with climate scientists, municipal officers and private individual forest owners in Sweden, and examines how local experts both share scientific knowledge and experience and integrate it into their work strategies and practices. The results demonstrate how local experts jointly conceptualise climate adaptation, how scientific knowledge is domesticated among local experts in dialogue with scientific experts, the emergence of anchoring devices, and the boundary-spanning functions that are at work in the respective sectors.     

Making space for social inclusion in conceptualising climate change vulnerability

Impacts from climate change pose a raft of challenges for societies, governments and policy-makers internationally. The anticipated changes are well documented, including rising sea levels, increased floods and other extreme weather conditions. Much research and policy emphasis has focused on technical and economic aspects. Less debated are questions about different communities' vulnerabilities, inequitable distributional impacts, social justice issues and how vulnerability links to social inclusion/exclusion. This paper explores a case study mapping social exclusion and vulnerability in Brisbane, Queensland, which found that while communities can be vulnerable through physical aspects of an area when social dimensions are added to the equation it amplifies or exacerbates the scale of vulnerability. The findings also suggest that in developing research agendas and policy debates around climate change, there could be benefits from interlinking the currently separate areas of work on social vulnerability to extreme weather events, to forms and processes of social inclusion/exclusion.     

Downscaling climate models and environmental policy: From global to regional politics

High resolution climate models of regions, or downscaling, promises to be at the forefront of future climate policy research. However, most research in this area is in the natural sciences, and the policy community has not taken full notice of this trend at their doorstep. Downscaling provides more concrete information about local impacts of climate change. This raises several important political issues surrounding extreme events, adaptation, risk and equity and legacy concerns, all of which are briefly addressed. The paper concludes with a call for more social science research on downscaling to accompany the rich geophysical science literature in the topic.     

The Value of Linking Mitigation and Adaptation: A Case Study of Bangladesh

There are two principal strategies for managing climate change risks: mitigation and adaptation. Until recently, mitigation and adaptation have been considered separately in both climate change science and policy. Mitigation has been treated as an issue for developed countries, which hold the greatest responsibility for climate change, while adaptation is seen as a priority for the South, where mitigative capacity is low and vulnerability is high. This conceptual divide has hindered progress against the achievement of the fundamental sustainable development challenges of climate change. Recent attention to exploring the synergies between mitigation and adaptation suggests that an integrated approach could go some way to bridging the gap between the development and adaptation priorities of the South and the need to achieve global engagement in mitigation. These issues are explored through a case study analysis of climate change policy and practice in Bangladesh. Using the example of waste-to-compost projects, a mitigation-adaptation-development nexus is demonstrated, as projects contribute to mitigation through reducing methane emissions; adaptation through soil improvement in drought-prone areas; and sustainable development, because poverty is exacerbated when climate change reduces the flows of ecosystem services. Further, linking adaptation to mitigation makes mitigation action more relevant to policymakers in Bangladesh, increasing engagement in the international climate change agenda in preparation for a post-Kyoto global strategy. This case study strengthens the argument that while combining mitigation and adaptation is not a magic bullet for climate policy, synergies, particularly at the project level, can contribute to the sustainable development goals of climate change and are worth exploring.     

Quantifying sources of climate uncertainty to inform risk analysis for climate change decision-making

Quantitative estimates of future climate change and its various impacts are often based on complex climate models which incorporate a number of physical processes. As these models continue to become more sophisticated, it is commonly assumed that the latest generation of climate models will provide us with better estimates of climate change. Here, we quantify the uncertainty in future climate change projections using two multi-model ensembles of climate model simulations and divide it into different components: internal, scenario and model. The contributions of these sources of uncertainty changes as a function of variable, temporal and spatial scale and especially lead time in the future. In the new models, uncertainty intervals for each of the components have increased. For temperature, importance of scenario uncertainty is the largest over low latitudes and increases nonlinearly after the mid-century. It has a small importance for precipitation simulations on all time scales, which hampers estimating the effect which any mitigation efforts might have. In line with current state-of-the-art adaptation approaches, we argue that despite these uncertainties climate models can provide useful information to support adaptation decision-making. Moreover, adaptation decisions should not be postponed in the hope that future improved scientific understanding will result in more accurate predictions of future climate change. Such simulations might not become available. On the contrary, while planning adaptation initiatives, a rational framework for decision-making under uncertainty should be employed. We suggest that there is an urgent need for continued development and use of improved risk analysis methods for climate change adaptation.     

Southwest climate gap: poverty and environmental justice in the US Southwest

This article examines the “climate gap” in the Southwest US (Arizona and New Mexico), referring to the “disproportionate and unequal implications of climate change and climate change mitigation” for “people of color and the poor” [Shonkoff, S.B., et al., 2011. The climate gap: environmental health and equity implications of climate change mitigation policies in California. Climatic Change, 109 (Suppl. 1), S485–S503]. The climate and poverty relationship is examined using multi-scaled analysis across three indicators of climate vulnerability, focusing on connections to health, food, and energy during the period 2010–2012. We provide an overview of climate-related social vulnerability in the Southwest based on available federal, state, and county-level census data. We then summarise the results from a stakeholder workshop and in-depth interviews about climate vulnerabilities with social service providers in southern Arizona. We identify a significant Southwest climate gap based on census data and interview findings about climate vulnerability especially relating to high levels of poverty, health disparities, and increasing costs for energy, water, and food. We find that grassroots and community organisations have mobilised to respond to climate and social vulnerability, yet resources for mitigation and adaptation are insufficient given the high level of need. Confronting a changing climate that is projected to be hotter, drier, and with the potential to reach new thresholds, we suggest that more research needs to be done to understand the social and spatial characteristics of climate risk and how low-income populations embody and experience climate risk, and adapt to a changing climate.     

The role of scale in integrating climate change adaptation and mitigation in cities

By using a scale framework, we examine how cross-scale interactions influence the implementation of climate adaptation and mitigation actions in different urban sectors. Based on stakeholder interviews and content analysis of strategies and projects relevant to climate adaptation and mitigation in the cities of Copenhagen and Helsinki, we present empirical examples of synergies, conflicts and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation that are driven by the cross-scale interactions. These examples show that jurisdictional and institutional scales shape the implementation of adaptation and mitigation strategies, projects and tasks at the management scale, creating benefits of integrated solutions, but also challenges. Investigating the linkages between adaptation and mitigation through a scale framework provides new knowledge for urban climate change planning and decision-making. The results increase the understanding of why adaptation and mitigation are sometimes handled as two separate policy areas and also why attempts to integrate the two policies may fail.     

“Other people’s initiatives”: exploring mediation and appropriation of place as barriers to community-based climate change adaptation

Adaptation planning at the community level takes on various forms. It generally involves a process of defining climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and actions that can build community resilience. Typically, these processes rely on climate experts and policy-makers to define what is at risk, and therefore what is worthy of investment and protection. Emerging approaches to community-based adaptation-planning advocate for stronger community control over these processes. Drawing on a place-based approach to adaptation, this paper examines place meaning as a co-constructed process. It explores how this process shapes opportunities for community-based climate action in Churchill, Canada. Results indicate that community members acknowledge many competing threats to their sense of place, and suggest that this competition may reduce the perceived need to prioritise climate action to protect connections to place. Results also reveal a concern among community members that local place identity has been appropriated for economic gain, which may further reduce the drive to act in protection of an already exploited sense of place. Overall, findings support calls to adopt place-based perspectives to enhance the capacity of adaptation planning to understand local needs, values, and levers for action.     

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation at the local level

National authorities in many countries aim at having climate change adaptation mainstreamed into existing policy domains in order to achieve coherence and synergies, and to avoid mal-adaptation. Because of local variations in climate change impacts, the lion's share of climate adaptation work will have to take place at the local level. This means also that the mainstreaming process needs to occur locally. This article examines the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into existing sectors in five Norwegian municipalities. Applying theories of mainstreaming and policy integration we find that policy development is slower, but perhaps more robust in the municipalities that have chosen a horizontal, cross-sectoral approach to mainstreaming than in the municipalities that have chosen a vertical sector approach to mainstreaming.     

Case studies of scenario analysis for adaptive management of natural resource and infrastructure systems

Management of natural resources and infrastructure systems for sustainability is complicated by uncertainties in the human and natural environment. Moreover, decisions are further complicated by contradictory views, values, and concerns that are rarely made explicit. Scenario analysis can play a major role in addressing the challenges of sustainability management, especially the core question of how to scan the future in a structured, integrated, participatory, and policy-relevant manner. In a context of systems engineering, scenario analysis can provide an integrated and timely understanding of emergent conditions and help to avoid regret and belated action. The purpose of this paper is to present several case studies in natural resources and infrastructure systems management where scenario analysis has been used to aide decision making under uncertainty. The case studies include several resource and infrastructure systems: (1) water resources (2) land-use corridors (3) energy infrastructure, and (4) coastal climate change adaptation. The case studies emphasize a participatory approach, where scenario analysis becomes a means of incorporating diverse stakeholder concerns and experience. This approach to scenario analysis provides insight into both high-performing and robust initiatives/policies, and, perhaps more importantly, influential scenarios. Identifying the scenarios that are most influential to policy making helps to direct further investigative analysis, modeling, and data-collection efforts to support the learning process that is emphasized in adaptive management.     

Integrated urban water management modelling under climate change scenarios

The concept of integrated water management is uncommon in urban areas, unless there is a shortage of supply and severe conflicts among the users competing for limited water resources. Further, problem of water management in urban areas will aggravate due to uncertain climatic events. Therefore, an Integrated Urban Water Management Model considering Climate Change (IUWMCC) has been presented which is suitable for optimum allocation of water from multiple sources to satisfy the demands of different users under different climate change scenarios. Effect of climate change has been incorporated in non-linear mathematical model of resource allocation in term of climate change factors. These factors have been developed using runoff responses corresponding to base and future scenario of climate. Future scenarios have been simulated using stochastic weather generator (LARS-WG) for different IPCC climate change scenarios i.e. A1B, A2 and B1. Further, application of model has been demonstrated for a realistic water supply system of Ajmer urban fringe (India). Developed model is capable in developing adaptation strategies for optimum water resources planning and utilization in urban areas under different climate change scenarios.     

“In common nature”: an ethnography of climate adaptation in the Lesotho Highlands

In Lesotho, climate change adaptation funding is being managed and distributed by the same mechanisms which have traditionally operationalised humanitarian aid and international development assistance in the country. Lessons from the HIV/AIDS disaster, along with insights into the value of participatory approaches foregrounding the expertise of indigenous communities, must be heeded in order to ensure that those most affected by climate change have a say in how adaptation is carried out. This paper proposes that indigenous people have developed and actively maintained resilience strategies, encoded in social practices and farming techniques, designed out of long experience with climatic variability. Through case studies, indigenous resilience strategies are explored, with emphasis on the anarchistic, improvisational nature of traditional ecological knowledge. Future directions for policy-makers and practitioners dealing with climate change adaptation are suggested, namely the need to foreground indigenous knowledge and the experiences of frontlines experts in key policy arenas.     

Case studies in co-benefits approaches to climate change mitigation and adaptation

Attempts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions or manage the effects of climate change traditionally focus on management or policy options that promote single outcomes (e.g., either benefiting ecosystems or human health and well-being). In contrast, co-benefits approaches to climate change mitigation and adaptation address climate change impacts on human and ecological health in tandem and on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The article engages the concept of co-benefits through four case studies. The case studies emphasize co-benefits approaches that are accessible and tractable in countries with human populations that are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. They illustrate the potential of co-benefits approaches and provide a platform for further discussion of several interdependent principles relevant to the implementation of co-benefits strategies. These principles include providing incentives across multiple scales and time frames, promoting long-term integrated impact assessment, and fostering multidimensional communication networks.     

Downscaling climate change scenarios in an urban land use change model

The objective of this paper is to describe the process through which climate change scenarios were downscaled in an urban land use model and the results of this experimentation. The land use models (Urban Growth Model [UGM] and the Land Cover Deltatron Model [LCDM]) utilized in the project are part of the SLEUTH program which uses a probabilistic cellular automata protocol. The land use change scenario experiments were developed for the 31-county New York Metropolitan Region (NYMR) of the US Mid-Atlantic Region. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios) were used to define the narrative scenario conditions of future land use change. The specific research objectives of the land use modeling work involving the SLEUTH program were threefold: (1) Define the projected conversion probabilities and the amount of rural-to-urban land use change for the NYMR as derived by the UGM and LCDM for the years 2020 and 2050, as defined by the pattern of growth for the years 1960-1990; (2) Down-scale the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios as a narrative that could be translated into alternative growth projections; and, (3) Create two alternative future growth scenarios: A2 scenario which will be associated with more rapid land conversion than found in initial projections, and a B2 scenario which will be associated with a slower level of land conversion. The results of the modeling experiments successfully illustrate the spectrum of possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050. The application of these results into the broader scale climate and health impact study is discussed, as is the general role of land use/land cover change models in climate change studies and associated environmental management strategies.     

Understanding urban vulnerability,adaptation and resilience in the context of climate change

This paper introduces a special issue of Local Environment that has arisen through collaboration between academic researchers and the Urban Planning and Design Branch of UN-Habitat, focused on how we can understand and respond to the challenges of urban vulnerability, adaptation and resilience in the context of climate change. The paper establishes the existing state of the art in the field, and considers critical challenges that are emerging in the research-based literature. In this context, it introduces UN-Habitat's Cities and Climate Change Initiative and reflects on the lessons learnt and challenges ahead, drawing on insights from across the papers in the special issue. In conclusion, it identifies the role of international/transnational co-operation, the relation between adaptation and mitigation, issues of multi-level governance and the ways in which change in urban socio-technical systems might be achieved as critical issues across the science/policy interface where increased dialogue and the co-production of knowledge needs to focus in order to advance this agenda.     

Sustainability Assessment of Future Scenarios: Methodology and Application to Mountain Areas of Europe

BioScene (scenarios for reconciling biodiversity conservation with declining agriculture use in mountain areas in Europe) was a three-year project (2002–2005) funded by the European Union’s Fifth Framework Programme, and aimed to investigate the implications of agricultural restructuring and decline for biodiversity conservation in the mountain areas of Europe. The research took a case study approach to the analysis of the biodiversity processes and outcomes of different scenarios of agri-environmental change in six countries (France, Greece, Norway, Slovakia, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom) covering the major biogeographical regions of Europe. The project was coordinated by Imperial College London, and each study area had a multidisciplinary team including ecologists and social and economic experts, which sought a comprehensive understanding of the drivers for change and their implications for sustainability. A key component was the sustainability assessment (SA) of the alternative scenarios. This article discusses the development and application of the SA methodology developed for BioScene. While the methodology was objectives-led, it was also strongly grounded in baseline ecological and socio-economic data. This article also describes the engagement of stakeholder panels in each study area and the use of causal chain analysis for understanding the likely implications for land use and biodiversity of strategic drivers of change under alternative scenarios for agriculture and rural policy and for biodiversity management. Finally, this article draws conclusions for the application of SA more widely, its use with scenarios, and the benefits of stakeholder engagement in the SA process.     

Development and Climate Change: A Mainstreaming Approach for Assessing Economic,Social, and Environmental Impacts of Adaptation Measures

The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.