动态安全系统理论的研究与应用

将量子纠缠理论引入安全理论中,提出安全与危险纠缠机制;指出人们当前所处的“安全”的状态,实质上是“安全与风险叠加”的状态,是不确定的;而相对于当前的状态,之前的状态实质上是安全的,是确定的,由此重新给出了安全的新认知。再以安危纠缠和安全新认知为理论基础,建立了动态安全系统理论,给安全管理与事故预防提供了新思想和新方向。然后借由塔吊生产系统,展示了动态安全系统理论的应用,定量分析系统内部安全程度,从而使安全管理步入动态的定量化管理阶段。     

时间维度下新安全观的内涵、功能及价值

为了引导人们建立正确的安全观,输出安全行为,维护系统安全状态的平衡,通过文献综述法分析几个典型的安全概念存在的问题,借鉴量子纠缠理论,提出"安全与危险纠缠"理论学说。在此基础上,分析系统在不同时间段内的存在方式及状态,构建了新安全观思想。重点论述新安全观的构成要素:安全历史观、安全现实观和安全未来观,分析新旧安全观的区别,阐述新安全观的内涵、功能与价值。结果表明:新安全观可以指导人们正确认识事物的存在方式与状态,可以量化过去、预测未来,也可以帮助建立新的安全理论,即动态安全系统理论。因此,新安全观的提出具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。     

在实践基础上不断发展

如何让安全更“科学”？就要先明确什么是安全科学。笔者认为,安全一词的基本涵义是“无危则安,无缺则全”。所谓安全是一种主体没有危险的状态,且这种状态是客观的,不以人的主观意志（如安全感）为转移。安全不是一种实体,必须依附一定的实体。如当安全依附人的行为时,那就是“人的行为安全”,当安全依附物的状态时,那就是“物的状态安全”,当安全依附作业环境时,那就是“作业环境的安全”。     

城市安全发展评估指标体系与指数构建

为识别城市安全发展状态和存在的问题，基于国内外韧性城市和我国安全发展示范城市建设实践经验，系统研究城市安全、韧性和安全发展等目标的演化历程；基于城市复杂适应系统和韧性理论，探讨城市安全发展的目标和韧性潜能表现，提出评估指标体系和指数生成方法。研究结果表明：安全是可持续发展的重要保障，是城市系统在面对危险、威胁等不确定干扰事件中保持可持续发展的一种状态；系统韧性反映城市系统防灾和应急模式从被动反应向主动防范、及时适应和调整的转变能力，是实现安全发展重要手段；城市安全发展评估是一个动态过程，应关注城市系统的韧性表现，确保城市系统始终对灾难事件保持持续适应和提升的管理模式。     

安全状态评价模型构模原理及其状态程度与状态在程度的表达方…

运用系统科学理论对安全状态评价模型构模原理进行阐述，根据评价系统状态的模糊性循环，结合人们对安全状态的认识，理解和接受方式，提出了评价系统状态程度与状态存在的可能性多值表达方法。     

基于蝴蝶型突变理论的安全生产保障系统分析和探讨

利用突变理论探讨事故致因模型,揭示事故致因的基本要素及其内在联系,对构成的要素进行抽象化,将对众多复杂企业的不安全因素进一步归纳为"人-机-环境-管理"安全生产保障系统,分析建立该系统的必要性,在突变理论的蝴蝶型与该系统结合性的基础上,探讨和建立安全决策和安全对策模型,将企业的安全生产危险程度分为理想的安全区域、危险区域、相对的安全区域。提出了危险程度和安全状况改进的数学模型,蝴蝶型突变理论能够揭示企业的安全状况。     

水资源系统的弹塑性及其安全机理分析

针对水资源安全存在的问题,分析了"人"对水资源安全系统的作用,明确提出"人"是水资源安全的主体。运用弹塑性理论,提出了水资源安全系统的弹性与塑性内涵。在水资源安全系统的弹性范围,推导出水资源安全的平衡方程、相容方程和本构方程,并进而分析了水资源安全系统从安全状态到危险状态的转化过程,即系统表现出的弹性、弹塑性、塑性极限以及完全破坏状态模式,从数学和力学角度描述了水资源安全的机理。当"人"的扰动力大于水资源安全系统的弹性界限时,水资源安全系统就会出现塑性变形,即出现威胁水资源安全的问题,若扰动力进一步增大,水资源安全系统就会出现严重破坏或崩溃。     

职业安全与安全科学

一般理解安全科学与职业安全之间的关系,就是科学理论与社会实践的关系问题,也就是安全科学在具体实现职业安全过程中的地位和作用问题。二者的区别与联系职业安全处于解决实际问题的工程技术层次,在社会实践中表现为各种内部存在的具体安全问题,可以概括为“某某安全”问题。安全科学处于指导安全实践的科学理论层次,通过运用安全规律实现种种职业     

系统安全投入与事故率可能性边界模型研究

安全科学是一门新兴的交叉学科,根据安全科学的哲学原理和安全科学基本理论,结合经济学原理,分析安全投入与事故率的规律,在此基础上建立安全投人与事故率可能性边界模型,即“P-S”模型。详细分析和描述了“P—S”模型中各参数的安全意义,推导出“P—S”模型的基本表达式,并定量分析了表达式中参数的取值情况,得出系统存在合理安全投入区间、最佳安全投入和最佳安全经济效益事故率。通过分析发现模型可以客观反应系统的安全投入与事故率之间的对立统一规律,安全投入与事故率“P—S”模型的研究对科学、有效的进行安全投入,提高系统的安全效益和经济效益,降低事故率具有一定的意义。     

湘潭某新建小学安全现状及管理措施研究

为减少湘潭某新建小学校园安全事件的发生,本文采用安全检查表对该校进行安全隐患排查,通过排查发现该校存在一定的安全隐患问题,主要集中在“物的不安全状态”和“不良环境”2个方面,针对隐患依据4M理论从“人—机—环—管”4个方面提出合理可行的安全管理措施及隐患消除方法。经分析,该校校园环境中存在的安全隐患可通过采取科学有效的方法进行治理。希望本研究可以为小学校园安全管理提供一定的思路。     

Defining and operationalizing theory

Over the last 50 years, the organizational sciences have gone from being largely atheoretical to relying heavily on theory. For various reasons, our approach to theory building has strayed from the principles of scientific acceptability. In this paper, I explore the problems with our approach to theory, the systemic causes of these problems, and the changes that are needed to get us back on track. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Perceived enjoyment,concentration, intention,and speed violation behavior: Using flow theory and theory of planned behavior

Objective: Road accidents are an important public health concern, and speeding is a major contributor. Although flow theory (FLT) is a valid model for understanding behavior, currently the nature of the roles and interplay of FLT constructs within the theory of planned behavior (TPB) framework when attempting to explain the determinants of motivations for intention to speed and speeding behavior of car drivers is not yet known. The study aims to synthesize TPB and FLT in explaining drivers of advanced vehicles intentions to speed and speed violation behaviors and evaluate factors that are critical for explaining intention and behavior.

Method: The hypothesized model was validated using a sample collected from 354 fully licensed drivers of advanced vehicles, involving 278 males and 76 females on 2 occasions separated by a 3-month interval. During the first of the 2 occasions, participants completed questionnaire measures of TPB and FLT variables. Three months later, participants' speed violation behaviors were assessed.

Results: The study observed a significant positive relationship between the constructs. The proposed model accounted for 51 and 45% of the variance in intention to speed and speed violation behavior, respectively. The independent predictors of intention were enjoyment, attitude, and subjective norm. The independent predictors of speed violation behavior were enjoyment, concentration, intention, and perceived behavioral control.

Conclusions: The findings suggest that safety interventions for preventing speed violation behaviors should be aimed at underlying beliefs influencing the speeding behaviors of drivers of advanced vehicles. Furthermore, perceived enjoyment is of equal importance to driver's intention, influencing speed violation behavior.     

Abusive according to whom? Manager and subordinate perceptions of abusive supervision and supervisors' performance

Recognizing that supervisor–subordinate dyads exist within a broader organizational hierarchy, we examine how the individual's role within the organizational hierarchy influences perceptions of abusive supervision. Specifically, we examine how supervisors' abusive behaviors are perceived by abusive supervisors' managers as well as abusive supervisors' subordinates. Drawing on role theory, we propose that these perceptions will differ. Further, we suggest that these differences will be reflected in different relationships between manager-rated abusive supervision and subordinate-rated abusive supervision and managers' evaluations of supervisor performance. Results from manager–supervisor–subordinate triads indicate differences between managers' and subordinates' view of abusive supervision. Further, managers' perceptions of abuse were related to supervisors' in-role performance, whereas subordinates' perceptions of abuse were related to workgroup performance. In Study 2, we replicate these findings and expand our investigation to an examination of supervisors' contextual performance. Additionally, we examine another contextual characteristic—aggressive climate—and demonstrate it influences how abusive supervision relates to managerial evaluations of supervisor performance. Future research and managerial implications are discussed.     

Women executives and off-the-job misconduct by high-profile employees: A study of National Football League team organizations

The risk of off-the-job misconduct by high-profile employees is a serious concern of top management in professional sport organizations, media and entertainment companies, and public-facing entities in the government and education sectors. Yet there is little research on how to prevent or mitigate this form of misconduct in organizations. Utilizing upper echelons theory and the literature on demographic composition, we examine the relationship between the gender composition of executives of team organizations in a men's professional sport league and subsequent misconduct by players on those teams. Specifically, we employed multilevel and logistic regression analyses to unique data on U.S. National Football League team organizations, and we found that firms with a critical mass of women executives experienced fewer player arrests. No support was found for executive power as a moderator of this relationship. We discuss the implications of our findings for the demographic composition literature. We also offer guidance for preventing and managing off-the-job misconduct by high-profile employees.     

基于博弈论-云模型的露天矿岩质边坡稳定性分析

针对露天矿岩质边坡稳定性具有随机性和模糊性的特点,建立了基于博弈论-云模型的边坡稳定性分级评价方法。首先,通过分析边坡稳定性影响因素,构建了包括地质、环境和工程条件等多方面的综合指标评价体系;其次,采用改进层次分析和熵权理论分别确定指标的主观和客观权重,基于博弈论计算指标综合权重;最后,通过计算综合确定度,基于最大隶属度原则确定边坡的稳定性等级。将所建立的评价模型应用到某露天矿边坡稳定性评价中,结果显示该模型的评价结果与实际情况完全符合,与未确知测度和可拓学理论的评价结果一致,表明该模型具有一定可靠性和实用性。     

内-外因事故致因理论与实现安全生产的途径

采用辩证的方法对事故发生的机理进行研究,提出了内-外因事故致因理论,阐明危险源是导致事故的内因,人—物—环—管中的不安全因素是导致事故的外因。根据危险源的存在形式,指出了有效控制危险源的基本手段和措施。通过深入分析人—物—环—管中的不安全因素的产生及导致的后果,从技术和管理方面论述了防止事故发生应采取的措施。最后提出将本质安全化与风险预控管理相结合,是实现安全生产的根本途径。内-外因事故致因理论为企业安全管理提供了理论,具有实用价值和参考意义。     

人员疏散时间预测与分析

由于大量火灾事故的不断发生,火灾防范和安全疏散成为一个重要的研究课题。为了探讨人员疏散规律,笔者应用排队论知识及结合“社会力”模型,并综合考虑到建筑结构特征、人员密度及个体的作用和差异,建立了人员疏散模型。通过计算机模拟确定人员疏散时间,结合实例阐述了出口宽度等建筑结构特征、人员密度与疏散时间的关系,结果表明,该模型得到的结果与实际基本相符。通过对人员疏散规律的研究,可以帮助人们优化建筑物的内部结构,特别是门宽,疏散通道的个数,从而加快紧急情况时的疏散速度,减少人员的伤亡;还可以帮助人们设计出正确的管理措施,保证大规模的群众集会时的人员的安全。     

Why we need theory in the organization sciences

To make the case that theory is a necessary part of research in the organization sciences, I develop three lines of argument. In the first, drawing upon Staw and Sutton's (1995, “What theory is not” Administrative Science Quarterly, 40, 371–384) classic piece, I outline the boundaries of theory and, using a recently published empirical article as an example, demonstrate how research based on literature references and line‐and‐box diagrams instead of explanatory theory can make only a limited contribution to the literature. I next discuss more generally the pitfalls of conducting research without first developing theory, citing the example of malaria. In the final section of the article, I defend the role of theory‐review articles, such as those published in the Academy of Management Review, and illustrate (again by reference to an example) how such articles are critical to advancing organizational research. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

利益冲突群体的安全人性及其弱点

根据安全人性需求理论对利益冲突群体形成的原因进行了分析,在安全人性理论的基础上揭示了利益冲突群体安全人性的本质。通过统计分析我国近14年发生的群体性事件,得出了我国群体性事件的特点、矛盾主体、原因。运用蝴蝶突变理论对群体性事件发生的原因进行分析,构建了群体性事件发生的过程机理模型,提出了应对群体性事件发生的思路,总结出利益冲突群体安全人性的应用领域。