Differentiation of countries’ future commitments in a post-2012 climate regime: An assessment of the “South–North Dialogue” Proposal

The “South–North Dialogue” Proposal, developed by researchers from developing and industrialised countries, outlined equitable approaches to mitigation. These approaches were based on the criteria of responsibility, capability and potential to mitigate, and include deep cuts in industrialised (Annex I) countries and differentiated mitigation commitments for developing countries. This paper quantitatively analyses the implications of the proposal for countries’ emissions and costs. The analysis focuses on a “political willingness” scenario and four stabilisation scenarios. The analysis shows that stringent stabilisation targets imply that many developing countries would have to take on quantitative mitigation obligations by 2030, even when the Annex I countries take on ambitious mitigation commitments far beyond the Kyoto obligations. The “political willingness scenario” will probably not suffice to limit a warming of the Earth's atmosphere to below 2 °C.     

涉铅企业环境风险辨识技术研究

从涉铅企业生产工艺及物料特征出发,以《建设项目环境风险评价技术导则》、《环境污染事故应急预案编制技术指南》和《重金属污染企业突发环境事件应急预案编制指南》等技术规范为依据,对涉铅企业环境风险源项及突发环境风险事故类型进行辨识、归纳和归类,为涉铅企业的环境风险评价和环境应急管理提供科学依据。     

气体燃料发动机发展对中国温室气体减排贡献的生命周期分析

为分析气体燃料发动机的温室气体减排能力,应用生命周期分析方法计算了不同燃料的生命周期温室气体排放量,并据此计算了不同发动机的温室气体排放量.建立了气体燃料发动机“最大限度发展”和“不发展”两种情形.据此预测了2020年中国气体燃料发动机的温室气体减排效果,估算了2020年气体燃料发动机的耗气量占气体供应量的比重.结果显示,在最大限度发展情形下,气体燃料发动机将分别为城市公共交通、船舶动力和火力发电领域减少约7.47, 18.25, 450.1Mt CO2e的温室气体,减排量占全国减排目标的5.3%.气体燃料发动机将分别消耗15%的天然气、18.5%的煤层气和50%的垃圾填埋气供应量.考虑我国气体燃料资源结构情况及供应形势,推广气体燃料发动机是切实可行的.     

Modelling economic impacts and adaptation to extreme events: Insights from European case studies

Adaptation to climate change in Europe has only recently become a true policy concern with the management of extreme events one priority item. Irrespective of future climatic changes increasing the need for systematic evaluation and management of extremes, weather-related disasters already today pose substantial burdens for households, businesses and governments. Research in the ADAM project identified substantial direct risks in terms of potential crop and asset losses due to combined drought and heatwave, as well as flood hazards in Southern and Eastern Europe, respectively. This paper focuses on the indirect, medium to longer term economic risks triggered by the direct risks and mediated by policy responses. We present a selection of three economic impact and adaptation assessments and modelling studies undertaken on extreme event adaptation in Europe. Responding to a need for more economically based adaptation assessments, we address some relatively unresearched issues such as the understanding of past adaptation, the role of market response to impacts as well as government’s ability to plan for and share out extreme event risks. The first analysis undertakes an empirical exploration of observed impacts and adaptation in the agricultural sector in the UK comparing the impact of consecutive extreme events over time in order to determine whether adaptation has occurred in the past and whether this can be used to inform future estimates of adaptation rates. We find that farmers and the agricultural sector clearly have adapted to extreme events over time, but whether this rate can be maintained into the future is unclear, as some autonomous adaptation enacted seemed rather easy to be taken. Markets may mediate or amplify impacts and in the second analysis, we use an economic general equilibrium model to assess the economic effects of a reduction in agricultural production due to drought and heatwave risk in exposed regions in Spain. The analysis suggests that modelled losses to the local economy are more serious in a large-scale scenario when neighbouring provinces are also affected by drought and heatwave events. This is due to the supply-side induced price increase leading to some passing on of disaster costs to consumers. The simulation highlights the importance of paying particular attention to the spatial and distributional effects weather extremes and possibly changes therein induced by climate change may incur. Finally, we discuss how national governments may better plan their disaster liabilities resulting from a need to manage relief and reconstruction activities post event. We do so using a risk based economic planning model assessing the fiscal consequences associated with the coping with natural extremes. We identify large weather-related disaster contingent liabilities, particularly in the key flood hot spot countries Austria, Romania, and Hungary. Such substantial disaster liabilities (“hidden disaster deficits”) when interacting with weak fiscal conditions may lead to substantial additional stress on government budgets and reduced fiscal space for funding other relevant public investment projects. Overall, our paper suggests the importance of respecting the specific spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme event risk when generating information on adaptation decisions. As our adaptation decisions considered, such as using sovereign risk financing instruments are associated with a rather short time horizon, the analysis largely focuses on the management of today’s extreme events and does not discuss in detail projections of risks into a future with climate change. Such projections raise important issues of uncertainty, which in some instances may actually render future projections non-robust, a constraint to be kept in mind when addressing longer term decisions, which at the same time should account for both climate and also socioeconomic change.     

Including land use,land-use change,and forestry in future climate change,agreements: thinking outside the box

This paper presents a framework that encompasses a full range of options for including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) within future agreements under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The intent is to provide options that can address the broad range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals as well as to bring the broadest possible range of nations into undertaking mitigation efforts. We suggest that the approach taken for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period is only one within a much larger universe of possible approaches. This larger universe includes partially or completely “de-linking” LULUCF commitments from those in other sectors, and allowing commitments specified in terms other than tonnes of greenhouse gases. Such approaches may provide clarity and transparency concerning the role of the various sectors in the agreements and encourage participation in agreements by a more inclusive, diverse set of countries, resulting in a more effective use of LULUCF in addressing climate change.     

Co-control of carbon dioxide and air pollutant emissions in China from a cost-effective perspective

With increases in the economy and standards of living, energy consumption has grown significantly in China, which has resulted in serious local air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Because both carbon dioxide (CO₂) and air pollutant emissions mainly stem from fossil energy use, a co-control strategy is simulated and compared with single control in China, using an integrated assessment model (Global Change Assessment Model-Tsinghua University (GCAM-TU)) in this paper. We find that end-of-pipe (EOP) control measures play an important role in reducing air pollution in the near future, but in the long run, optimizing the energy system is an effective way to control both emissions. Reducing air pollutant might take a “free-ride” of decarbonizing the energy system. Compared with a single control of air pollutants, a co-control strategy is likely to reduce the requirement of EOP control measures. The result guides the Chinese government to consider a systemic and scientific plan for decarbonizing the energy system and co-controlling CO₂ and air pollutant, in order to avoid duplicate investments in infrastructure and lockup effect. The solution could be extended to many other developing countries, such as India and Africa, which is helpful to realize the goals of United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Agenda.

     

生物炭添加对土壤温室气体排放影响的长短期效应研究进展

人类活动引起的大气温室气体浓度增加是气候变暖的主要原因,全球变暖已经成为了当今人类社会所面临的严峻挑战,应对气候变暖的关键是减少温室气体排放和增加生态系统碳汇,由于生物炭特有的理化和生物学特性,将其施入土壤被认为是一种有前景的减排增汇措施.因此进行生物炭对土壤温室气体排放的影响研究对于减缓温室效应和实现“碳中和”具有重要意义.通过综述生物炭对土壤温室气体排放影响的长短期效应及其影响机制,发现生物炭添加对土壤温室气体排放的影响因生物炭原料类型、热解温度、添加量、土壤和植被类型的不同而不同.此外,因老化时间、老化方式和培养方法的不同,老化生物炭对土壤温室气体的减排效应可能增强或减弱甚至消失.同时,在总结现有研究不足的基础上,对未来生物炭影响土壤温室气体排放研究的方向和重点进行了分析和展望,提出了今后应加强CO₂、 N₂O和CH₄排放影响的同步研究、减排与固碳效应的同步研究、不同老化方式生物炭和不同培养方法的联合研究和利用¹³C和¹⁵N示踪技术从过程层次上揭示影响机制.     

杭州市“十二五”环境保护规划中期评估研究

杭州市“十二五”环保规划已实施过半,为了评估规划的实施效果,根据规划内容分析评估了规划指标、主要任务、重点工程、政策措施等四方面的完成情况,梳理了实施过程中存在的三个问题。一是污染物减排动力依然大,二是环境质量改善任重道远,三是隐性污染威胁环境安全。针对存在问题,提出了强化领导健全机制、落实问责制度、加大“三清”行动（清洁水源、清洁空气、清洁土壤）力度、加大产业转型力度、加强环境依法建设、加大环保投入力度等六项对策措施。     

我国农田土壤的主要温室气体CO2、CH4和N2O排放研究

讨论土壤主要温室体ＣＯ２,ＣＨ４和Ｎ２Ｏ的排放过程,计算我国农田生态系统排放ＣＯ２、ＣＨ４和Ｎ２Ｏ的总量。１９９０年,中国地区ＣＯ２、ＣＨ４和Ｎ２Ｏ农田排放源强分别是２６０ＴｇＣＯ２,１７．５ＴｇＣｈ４和０．０９６ＴｇＮ,它们占我国相应这些气体排放量的８％,５０％和１０％,论述了温室气体浓度增加可能以农业产生的影响及应采取的控制对策。     

Emissions trading in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta region—A modeling approach to trade decisions in Hong Kong's electricity industry

In 2002, the Hong Kong government and the Guangdong provincial government agreed to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, respirable suspended particulates, and volatile organic compounds by 40%, 20%, 55%, and 55%, respectively. There was strong public demand for the power stations in Hong Kong to reduce emissions. Emission caps were introduced, with allowances for the trading of emission credits. However, local power stations were using equipment built in the 1980s and 1990s, making it difficult for them to meet the new emissions requirements. The situation presented a new challenge, which involved a choice of either improving the existing equipment, or using emissions trading to meet the emission caps. This study reviews the background on emissions in Hong Kong and the surrounding regions, the “cap and trade” system, and the technologies used for power generation and emission reduction. A modeling approach is adopted to simulate the equipment, the electricity dispatching requirements, and the costs of either reducing emissions or trading emission credits. Data from a power station in Hong Kong was chosen for the simulation. Different options were simulated in the model to identify the optimal strategy. The results were then compared with the plan for emission reduction. This study demonstrates that a modeling approach using linear programming can analyze the complicated options involving emission reduction and investments to achieve an optimized business solution.     

The future of global warming: will it be emissions control or environmental damages?

This paper explores the role of risk perceptions in influencing public policy related to global warming. It solves for the optimal paths for emissions, abatement and investment in pollution-eliminating research by incorporating perceived risks into public decision making. It also compares the impact of differential risk perceptions on international collaboration on carbon abatement. Key findings are that the perception of risks related to environmental damages and technological breakthroughs plays an important role in determining the level of mitigation efforts. A high level of perceived risk of environmental damages discourages investment in pollution-eliminating research as there are few benefits from eliminating pollution after damages are realized. Other options that allow for sequestering carbon from the atmosphere may still remain viable. Another key finding is that when it comes to effort sharing between nations, differential mitigation efforts are primarily caused due to the differences in abatement technology, benefits from emissions and research capabilities. However, such differences could be accentuated or mitigated depending upon the differences in risk perception of developed and developing countries.     

Framing adaptation to climate-related extreme events

Whilst mitigation has dominated policy and research agendas in recent years there is an increasing recognition that communities also need to be preparing for change that is unavoidable, partially a consequence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases already emitted to the atmosphere. The perceived need for adaptation has also received additional impetus through the high public profile now given to the impacts of current day weather variability, particularly the significant economic and social costs associated with recent extreme events. However, being a relatively new focus for both research and policy communities; practical evidence of the extent, feasibility, efficiency, and cost effectiveness of potential adaptation options remains largely lacking. In response, this paper seeks to make a contribution to this embryonic but evolving knowledge base by considering the theoretical underpinnings of adaptation and ultimately how this translates into practice ‘in the real world’. The analytical commentary, based on a bottom-up approach involving iterative engagement with key stakeholders and experts, reflects on the identification of measures that are either innovative or examples of good practice in reducing or transferring climate risks, as well as considering those ‘enabling’ institutional structures and processes that act to support implementation on the ground. The paper concludes by synthesising the key findings to date in order to highlight some of the opportunities for, and barriers to, adaptation activity.     

Managing a forgotten greenhouse gas under existing U.S. law: An interdisciplinary analysis

The United States’ legal strategy for addressing climate change in recent years has relied on authority from existing legislation. This has led to measures on a number of different greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide, methane and hydrofluorocarbons. However, one greenhouse gas has been largely forgotten: nitrous oxide. Nitrous oxide is the third most abundantly emitted greenhouse gas in the U.S. and worldwide, as well as the largest remaining threat to the stratospheric ozone layer. In addition, the nitrogen atoms in nitrous oxide are part of the highly fluid nitrogen cycle where nitrogen atoms transform readily among different chemical forms, each with a unique environmental and human health impact – a process known as the nitrogen cascade. While the science of the nitrogen cascade has been explored for over a decade, there has been little work on the legal implications of this phenomenon. And yet the nitrogen cascade expands the legal options available for controlling nitrous oxide. This paper studies these options in a U.S. context and explores the environmental and economic impacts of enacting them. We determine that the Clean Air Act, and in particular its broad authority for controlling ozone depleting substances, is the most promising legal pathway for regulating nitrous oxide across all major sources. Invoking such authority could generate significant climate and stratospheric ozone benefits over 2015–2030, equivalent to taking 12 million cars permanently off the road, and 100 million chlorofluorocarbon-laden refrigerators out of service. The economic benefits could sum to over $700 billion over 2015–2030, with every $1.00 spent on abating emissions leading to $4.10 in societal benefits. The bulk of these benefits would come from reductions in other forms of nitrogen pollution such as ammonia and nitrate, highlighting the important and multiple co-benefits that could be achieved by abating nitrous oxide emissions. With the Paris Climate Agreement calling for limiting global temperature increases to “well below” two degrees Celsius, all mitigation opportunities across all sectors need to be considered. This paper suggests that nitrous oxide warrants more attention from policy-makers in the U.S. and around the world.     

IPCC第一工作组评估报告分析及建议

2021年8月6日,政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第一工作组第六次评估报告(AR6)发布,针对气候系统变化科学领域最新研究进展和成果进行了全面、系统的评估. AR6以更强有力的证据进一步确定了近百年全球气候变暖的客观事实,人类活动对气候变暖影响的信号更为清晰. 本文总结了历次IPCC评估报告,并从气候现状、未来可能的气候状态、风险评估和区域适应气候变化信息以及减缓未来气候变化4个方面对AR6进行系统梳理. 结果表明:人类活动产生的温室气体对大气、海洋、冰冻圈和生物圈的影响前所未有,引发了全球许多地区的极端天气和气候极端事件. 未来若温室气体排放没有显著减少,到2100年全球地表温度将至少升高2.1 ℃;如若人类影响得到有效改善,在最低排放情景(SSP1-1.9)中,2055年将变为负碳,到21世纪末气温开始再次下降. 减少CH₄等其他污染物可以为全球气候治理争取时间,并改善空气质量. 建议中国应对气候变化应加强基础科学研究,聚焦模式开发和应用及与各工作组之间的衔接,加快短寿命气候强迫(SLCFs)与温室气体协同控制研究,强化应对气候变化政策措施的科技支撑等.      

Emission trading in agriculture: a study of design options using an agent-based approach

The Scottish Government has proposed reducing Scotland’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 80% by 2050, compared to the 1990 baseline level. It is not yet clear how these reductions will be achieved, but it is likely that all sectors will be expected to make some contribution. Depending on their farm activities, farmers have different sets of abatement alternatives—the challenge facing them, however, is in finding strategies that help to meet reduction targets while maintaining their income. In this paper, we use an agent-based modelling approach to study the implications of carbon trading design options aimed at reducing GHG emissions in the agricultural sector, such as auctions, fixed carbon prices, or carbon credit banking. The feasibility of carbon trading scheme options is assessed regarding their ability to ensure that farmers obtain carbon credits at an affordable and adequate price, since low prices would reward farmers not adopting on-farm abatement options and high prices would encourage non-compliance to targets, thus increasing enforcement costs. Assuming a closed market within the agricultural sector, this study shows that farmers may face up to 50% loss of income to achieve a 30% reduction target if this requires a cut in production. However, market design options such as credits banking may allow farmers to progressively adapt to the scheme constraints. At an individual level, the rate of on-farm compliance and the mandated emission reduction target will determine which farmer strategy is the most efficient to cope with a trading scheme.     

重型柴油车对空气质量的影响及其排放的控制

通过对柴油车污染物排放的特征和机动车排放清单的分析,探讨了重型柴油车对我国城市空气质量的影响及其排放的控制.重型柴油车排放大量的氮氧化物和颗粒物,其中氮氧化物为大气中产生二次细粒子以及臭氧的重要前体物之一,导致区域性灰霾的形成,而柴油颗粒物是影响健康的一个主要有毒空气污染物,尤其是其中粒径为30～100 nm的超细粒子...     

环境风险全过程评估与管理模式研究及应用

基于环境风险“全过程管理”与“优先管理”的理念,提出了环境风险全过程评估与管理的概念框架和理论体系,涵盖了风险源识别、受体易损性评估、环境风险表征、风险应急控制决策以及风险事故损失后评估等关键步骤.并以某化工园区企业为例,以硝基苯储罐塌陷为初始事件,采用蝴蝶结方法进行风险源识别,得到硝基苯储罐泄漏事件蝴蝶结,通过GIS空间分析方法揭示居民对地表水水源污染易损性的空间分异,分析结果不仅为事故安全防范与应急控制提供关键节点,而且有助于在日常风险管理中增强受体抗风险能力.     

An integrated climate change assessment for the Northeast United States

The papers in this Special Issue are the primary technical underpinnings for the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA), an integrated regional-scale assessment of projected climate change, impacts and options for mitigation and adaptation across the US Northeast. The consequences of future pathways of greenhouse gas emissions on projected climate and impacts across climate-sensitive sectors is assessed by using downscaled projections from three global climate models under both higher (Alfi) and lower (B1) emissions scenarios. The findings illustrate that near-term reductions in emissions can greatly reduce the extent and severity of regionally important impacts on natural and managed ecosystems and public health in the latter half of this century, and increase the feasibility that those impacts which are now unavoidable can be successfully managed through adaptation.     

Modeling the impact of mitigation options on methane abatement from rice fields

The enhanced concentration of methane (CH₄) in the atmosphere is significantly responsible for the ominous threat of global warming. Rice (Oryza) paddies are one of the largest anthropogenic sources of atmospheric CH₄. Abatement strategies for mitigating CH₄ emissions from rice fields offer an avenue to reduce the global atmospheric burden of methane and hence the associated menace of climate change. Projections on population growth suggest that world rice production must increase to meet the population’s food energy demand. In this scenario, those mitigation options are advocated which address both the objectives of methane mitigation and increased production of rice simultaneously. In this paper, we have formulated a nonlinear mathematical model to investigate the effectiveness and limitations of such options in reducing and stabilizing the atmospheric concentration of CH₄ while increasing rice yield. In modeling process, it is assumed that implementation rate of mitigation options is proportional to the enhanced concentration of atmospheric CH₄ due to rice fields. Model analysis reveals that implementation of mitigation options not always provides “win-win” outcome. Conditions under which these options reduce and stabilize CH₄ emission from rice fields have been derived. These conditions are useful in devising strategies for effective abatement of CH₄ emission from rice fields along with sustainable increase in rice yield. The analysis also shows that CH₄ abatement highly depends on efficiencies of mitigation options to mitigate CH₄ emission and improve rice production as well as on the implementation rate of mitigation options. Numerical simulation is carried out to verify theoretical findings.     

广东省突发环境事件应急预案体系建设现状分析与对策

环境应急预案体系建设在落实"一案三制"中具有重要作用。本文通过总结广东省突发环境事件应急预案体系的建设情况,梳理分析政府及企业突发环境事件应急预案在工作实践过程中遇到的问题,从顶层设计、功能定位、编制方法、改进机制等方面提出意见和建议,进一步健全环境应急管理体系。