A two reservoir model to predict Escherichia coli losses to water from pastures grazed by dairy cows

Animal agriculture has been identified as an important source of diffuse faecal microbial pollution of water. Our current understanding of the losses of faecal microbes from grazed pasture systems is however poor. To help synthesise our current knowledge, a simple two reservoir model was constructed to represent the faecal and environmental sources of Escherichia coli found in a grazed pastoral system. The size of the faecal reservoir was modelled on a daily basis with inputs from grazing animals, and losses due to die-off of E. coli and decomposition of the faecal material. Estimates were made of transport coefficients of E. coli losses from the two reservoirs. The concentration of E. coli measured in overland flow and artificial drainage from grazed plots, used for calibration of the model, showed a significant (P < 0.0001) decrease with days since last grazing — up to 120 days. Modelled E. coli runoff concentrations calibrated well with the regression line from the measured data up to 120 days. Variability of E. coli concentrations in the source faecal material could account for the variability in the measured runoff concentrations. Measured E. coli concentrations in artificial drainage water from 120 to 1300 days since last grazing appeared to be greater than the model predicted. The longer term data clearly illustrated the need for an environmental reservoir of E. coli in models of grazed pasture systems. Research is needed to understand the behaviour and impact of this environmental reservoir. Scenario analysis using the model indicated that rather than manipulating the faecal material itself post defecation, mitigation options should focus on manipulating grazing management.     

Using the Q10 model to simulate E. coli survival in cowpats on grazing lands

Microbiological quality of surface waters can be affected by microbial load in runoff from grazing lands. This effect, with other factors, depends on the survival of microorganisms in animal waste deposited on pastures. Since temperature is a leading environmental parameter affecting survival, it indirectly impacts water microbial quality. The Q₁₀ model is widely used to predict the effect of temperature on rates of biological processes, including survival. Objectives of this work were to (i) evaluate the applicability of the Q₁₀ model to Escherichia coli inactivation in bovine manure deposited on grazing land (i.e., cowpats) and (ii) identify explanatory variables for the previously reported E. coli survival dynamics in cowpats. Data utilized in this study include published results on E. coli concentrations in natural and repacked cowpats from research conducted the U.S. (Virginia and Maryland), New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. Inspection of the datasets led to conceptualizing E. coli survival (in cowpats) as a two-stage process, in which the initial stage was due to growth, inactivation or stationary state of the population and the second stage was the approximately first-order inactivation. Applying the Q₁₀ model to these datasets showed a remarkable similarity in inactivation rates, using the thermal time. The reference inactivation rate constant of 0.042 (thermal days)^− 1 at 20 °C gave a good approximation (R² = 0.88) of all inactivation stage data with Q₁₀ = 1.48. The reference inactivation rate constants in individual studies were no different from the one obtained by pooling all data (P < 0.05). The rate of logarithm of the E. coli concentration change during the first stage depended on temperature. Duration of the first stage, prior to the first-order inactivation stage and the initial concentration of E. coli in cowpats, could not be predicted from available data. Diet and age are probable factors affecting these two parameters however, until their environmental and management predictors are known, microbial water quality modeling must treat them as a stochastic source of uncertainty in simulation results.     

Occurrence,removal and bioaccumulation of steroid estrogens in Dianchi Lake catchment,China

The occurrence, removal and bioaccumulation of steroid estrogens such as the natural estrone (E1), 17β-estradiol (E2) and estriol (E3), as well as the synthetic 17α-ethynylestradiol (EE2) were investigated in Dianchi Lake catchment, China. The results show that traditional secondary treatment processes in eight sewage treatment plants (STPs) of Kunming were not efficient enough to completely remove steroid estrogens, but ultraviolet (UV) photodegradation in advanced treatment displayed more effectively for the removal of the residual compounds. The amount of total steroid estrogens (∑ SEs) discharged to Dianchi Lake catchment by the eight STPs was 35.8 g/day, in which STP-3 was the dominant source, accounting for 50.8%. Because of the pollution input from treated and untreated sewages, estrogens were widely detected in surface water and sediment samples collected from 21 inflow rivers of Dianchi Lake, 10 National Surface Water Quality Monitoring Sites of the lake itself and its unique outflow river, with the mean concentration of ∑ SEs in the range of 5.3–798.2 ng/L (water) and 3.7–202.4 ng/g (dry weight, sediment), 1.5–39.2 ng/L (water) and 2.7–20.9 ng/g (sediment), and 4.2 ng/L (water) and 6.6 ng/g (sediment), respectively. Due to the continuous input of estrogens to Dianchi Lake from STPs and inflow rivers, present estrogen levels in various tissues of wild fish species sampled from the lake (2013) were higher than the values detected in the previous years (2009 and 2010). The bioaccumulation of steroid estrogens in wild fish species from different sampling sites was in the order of STP-5 > Dianchi Lake (2013) > Dianchi Lake (2010) ≈ Dianchi Lake (2009) ≫ field control > laboratory control, which is mainly affected by exposure concentrations. By employing risk quotient (RQ), it is found that eco-toxicological risk of steroid estrogens in Dianchi Lake catchment was in a sequence of 22 rivers > effluents of eight STPs > Dianchi Lake (2013) > Dianchi Lake (2010), and high RQs were found in EE2, which should be controlled preferentially in this catchment.     

Anthropogenic impacts on water quality of the lagoonal coast of Fongafale Islet, Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu

Water pollution, evident by negative values of redox potential in waters, occurs at the lagoonal coast located near the densely populated area of Fongafale Islet on Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu, Central Pacific. Sediment microbial quinone analysis revealed that these coastal sediments exhibit 2.7–10.4 times more microbial biomass, significantly different microbial community structure and low microbial diversity, when compared to an undisturbed natural coastal sediment. Thus, the pollution is chronic. By considering the total land use/coverage on the islet, the situation of septic tank installations, temporal changes in water redox potential and Escherichia coli numbers in the coastal waters and the spatial distribution of acid volatile sulfide in the sediments, we conclude that domestic wastewater is the primary source of pollution. This pollution is proposed to occur via the following mechanism: during ebb tides, domestic wastewater leaking from bottomless septic tanks and pit toilets run off into the lagoonal coast. Tide changes control the pollution load of domestic wastewater.     

Bacteriological quality of fresh produce and link to water and sanitation service access from informal markets in Mzuzu,Malawi

In 2010, the global burden of foodborne diseases was 33 million Disability-adjusted life years, and 40 % of this burden was for children under 5 years old (Havelaar et al. 2015). Our study site was informal public markets within Mzuzu, Malawi, visited between September and December 2015, during the dry season. From these markets, fresh vegetables, leafy greens (n = 85), tomato (n = 85), and green pepper (n = 35) were analyzed for Escherichia coli. The prevalence of E. coli was highest on leafy greens; it was found in 74 (87 %) of the 85 samples. The prevalence of E. coli in green peppers was found in 2 (6 %) of the 35 samples. The prevalence of E. coli was lowest on tomatoes; it was found in only 1 (1 %) of the 85 samples. The lack of adequate water and sanitation infrastructure in market areas may be contributing to the bacteriological contamination of fresh produce. Providing venders with free access to market area toilets containing hand-washing facilities with soap and wash water with a chlorine solution may reduce bacterial contamination of fresh produce. Universal and sustainable access to water and sanitation services must include informal public market areas to reduce diarrheal diseases transmitted through food within Sub-Saharan Africa countries.     

A new general mechanistic river model for radionuclides from single pulse fallouts which can be run by readily accessible driving variables

This paper presents a new general, process-based river model for substances such as radionuclides from single pulse fallouts. The new model has been critically tested using data from 13 European rivers contaminated by radiocesium from the Chernobyl accident. This modelling approach gives radionuclide concentrations in water (total, dissolved and particulate phases; and also concentrations in sediments and fish, but the latter aspects are not discussed in this paper) at defined river sites. The model is based on processes in the upstream river stretch and in the upstream catchment area. The catchment area is differentiated into inflow ( approximately dry land) areas and outflow ( approximately wetland) areas. The model also accounts for time-dependent fixation of substances in the catchment. The catchment area sub-model is based on a previous catchment model, which has been tested with very good results for radiocesium, radiostrontium and Ca-concentrations (from liming operations). The new river model is simple to apply in practice since all driving variables may be readily accessed from maps and standard monitoring programs. The driving variables are: latitude, altitude, continentality, catchment area, mean annual precipitation, soil type (percentages or organic and sandy soils), fallout and month of fallout. Modelled values have been compared to independent empirical data from 10 rivers sites (91 data on radiocesium in water) covering a wide domain (catchment areas from 4000 to 180 000 km(2), precipitation from 500 to 960 mm/yr and fallout from 1700 to 660 000 Bq/m(2)). The new model predicts very well--when modelled values are compared to empirical data, the slope is perfect (1.0) and the r(2)-value is 0.90. This is good giving the fact that there are also uncertainties in the empirical data, which set a limit to the achieved predictive power, as expressed by the r(2)-value.     

Dechlorane Plus in serum from e-waste recycling workers: Influence of gender and potential isomer-specific metabolism

Dechlorane Plus (DP) and its dechlorinated product, anti-Cl₁₁-DP, were measured in serum of 70 occupationally exposed workers in an e-waste recycling region and 13 residents of an urban area in South China. The DP levels were significantly higher in the workers (22–2200 ng/g with median of 150 ng/g lipid) than in the urban residents (2.7–91 ng/g with median of 4.6 ng/g lipid). The DP concentrations in females were found to be associated with their age but such relation was not found for males. Significant differences in DP levels and DP isomer composition were found between genders. The females had remarkably higher DP levels and f_anti values (fraction of anti-DP to total DPs) in serum than the males. Anti-Cl₁₁-DP was significantly correlated with anti-DP for both genders but with different slope of regression line. The ratios of anti-Cl₁₁-DP to anti-DP (mean of 0.017) in males were significantly higher than those (mean of 0.010) in females. Combining with the lower f_anti values in males, it is likely that males have higher metabolic potential for DPs than females which resulted in the lower DP loading in serum. However, the different patterns of selective uptake and/or excretion of different compounds between genders cannot be eliminated as a possible reason for the observed gender differences. This study is the first to report on the gender difference in DP accumulation in human, and its mechanism is worth further investigation.     

Brominated flame retardants in the indoor environment — Comparative study of indoor contamination from three countries

Concentrations of more than 20 brominated flame retardants (FRs), including polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and emerging FRs, were measured in air, dust and window wipes from 63 homes in Canada, the Czech Republic and the United States in the spring and summer of 2013. Among the PBDEs, the highest concentrations were generally BDE-209 in all three matrices, followed by Penta-BDEs. Among alternative FRs, EHTBB and BEHTBP were detected at the highest concentrations. DBDPE was also a major alternative FR detected in dust and air. Bromobenzenes were detected at lower levels than PBDEs and other alternative FRs; among the bromobenzenes, HBB and PBEB were the most abundant compounds. In general, FR levels were highest in the US and lowest in the Czech Republic — a geographic trend that reflects the flame retardants' market. No statistically significant differences were detected between bedroom and living room FR concentrations in the same house (n = 10), suggesting that sources of FRs are widespread indoors and mixing between rooms. The concentrations of FRs in air, dust, and window film were significantly correlated, especially for PBDEs. We found a significant relationship between the concentrations in dust and window film and in the gas phase for FRs with log K_OA values < 14, suggesting that equilibrium was reached for these but not compounds with log K_OA values > 14. This hypothesis was confirmed by a large discrepancy between values predicted using a partitioning model and the measured values for FRs with log K_OA values > 14.     

分布式TOPMODEL模型在清江流域降雨径流模拟中的应用

以清江流域上游为研究区域，探讨TOPMODEL模型在大流域的应用；对比了SRTM和地形图两种DEM数据在流域地形指数计算及降雨径流模拟中的差异，结果表明，虽然不同DEM计算得到的地形指数和模型率定参数存在较大差异，但是模拟效率基本相同，SRTM数据作为全球覆盖的免费高分辨率DEM数据将极大促进TOPMODEL模型的应用；分析了TOPMODEL模型在大流域中应用存在的局限性，在此基础上，构建了基于子流域的松散耦合的分布式TOPMODEL模型，提出了利用流域实际下垫面数据进行模型参数率定的方法，探讨了子流域划分详细程度对模拟结果的影响，结果表明，分布式TOPMODEL模型充分考虑了流域降雨和下垫面属性空间不均匀性对水文过程的影响，模拟效率高于传统TOPMODEL模型，随着子流域数目的增加，模型在率定期和校验期的效率均呈上升趋势，但是到达一定程度之后，受降雨等输入参数及模型计算误差所限，增加子流域个数不能继续提高模拟效率.     

Human recreational exposure to antibiotic resistant bacteria in coastal bathing waters

Infections caused by antibiotic resistant bacteria (ARB) are associated with poor health outcomes and are recognised globally as a serious health problem. Much research has been conducted on the transmission of ARB to humans. Yet the role the natural environment plays in the spread of ARB and antibiotic resistance genes is not well understood. Antibiotic resistant bacteria have been detected in natural aquatic environments, and ingestion of seawater during water sports is one route by which many people could be directly exposed.The aim was to estimate the prevalence of resistance to one clinically important class of antibiotics (third-generation cephalosporins (3GCs)) amongst Escherichia coli in coastal surface waters in England and Wales. Prevalence data was used to quantify ingestion of 3GC-resistant E. coli (3GCREC) by people participating in water sports in designated coastal bathing waters. A further aim was to use this value to derive a population-level estimate of exposure to these bacteria during recreational use of coastal waters in 2012.The prevalence of 3GC-resistance amongst E. coli isolated from coastal surface waters was estimated using culture-based methods. This was combined with the density of E. coli reported in designated coastal bathing waters along with estimations of the volumes of water ingested during various water sports reported in the literature to calculate the mean number of 3GCREC ingested during different water sports.0.12% of E. coli isolated from surface waters were resistant to 3GCs. This value was used to estimate that in England and Wales over 6.3 million water sport sessions occurred in 2012 that resulted in the ingestion of at least one 3GCREC.Despite the low prevalence of resistance to 3GCs amongst E. coli in surface waters, there is an identifiable human exposure risk for water users, which varies with the type of water sport undertaken. The relative importance of this exposure is likely to be greater in areas where a large proportion of the population enjoys water sports. Millions of water sport sessions occurred in 2012 that were likely to have resulted in people ingesting E. coli resistant to a single class of antibiotics (3GCs). However, this is expected to be a significant underestimate of recreational exposure to all ARB in seawater.This is the first study to use volumes of water ingested during different water sports to estimate human exposure to ARB. Further work needs to be done to elucidate the health implications and clinical relevance of exposure to ARB in both marine and fresh waters in order to fully understand the risk to public health.     

Modelling the transport of radionuclides from land to water

This paper addresses some fundamental problems related to the structure and function of catchment areas in general and for seasonal (weekly, monthly) mass balance calculations of radionuclides (and metals, organics and nutrients) in particular. A new catchment area model has been developed and critically tested. This modelling approach is based on mechanistic principles. The catchment area is differentiated into inflow ( approximately dry land) areas and outflow (=wetland) areas. The model also accounts for time-dependent fixation of substances in the catchment related to single-pulse fallouts. The model has a general structure. It is simple to use since there are only two soil type classes and three categories for the outflow areas. In critical tests, the model was put within a framework where it is intended, i.e., within a more comprehensive lake model. Radiocesium was used as a tracer in these tests. Modelled values were compared to empirical data from 23 lakes (351 data on (137)Cs in water, as well as in sediments, small fish and on suspended particles) covering a very wide limnological domain (latitudes from 42 to 61 degrees V, altitudes from 0 to 1090 m ASL, catchment areas from 0.17 to 114,700 km(2), precipitation from 430 to 1840 mm/year, lake areas from 0.042 to 1147 km(2), mean depths from 1.1 to 90 m, pH from 5.1 to 9 units, potassium concentrations from 0.23 to 27.5 mg/l, total P concentrations from 8.3 to 100 microg/l and theoretical water retention times from 0.02 to 137 years). When modelled values were compared to empirical data, the slope was almost perfect (0.99) as well as the coefficient of determination (r2 = 0.96).     

A meta-analysis to correlate lead bioavailability and bioaccessibility and predict lead bioavailability

Defining the precise clean-up goals for lead (Pb) contaminated sites requires site-specific information on relative bioavailability data (RBA). While in vivo measurement is reliable but resource insensitive, in vitro approaches promise to provide high-throughput RBA predictions. One challenge on using in vitro bioaccessibility (BAc) to predict in vivo RBA is how to minimize the heterogeneities associated with in vivo-in vitro correlations (IVIVCs) stemming from various biomarkers (kidney, blood, liver, urinary and femur), in vitro approaches and studies. In this study, 252 paired RBA-BAc data were retrieved from 9 publications, and then a Bayesian hierarchical model was implemented to address these random effects. A generic linear model (RBA (%) = (0.87 ± 0.16) × BAc + (4.70 ± 2.47)) of the IVIVCs was identified. While the differences of the IVIVCs among the in vitro approaches were significant, the differences among biomarkers were relatively small. The established IVIVCs were then applied to predict Pb RBA of which an overall Pb RBA estimation was 0.49 ± 0.25. In particular the RBA in the residential land was the highest (0.58 ± 0.19), followed by house dust (0.46 ± 0.20) and mining/smelting soils (0.45 ± 0.31). This is a new attempt to: firstly, use a meta-analysis to correlate Pb RBA and BAc; and secondly, estimate Pb RBA in relation to soil types.     

Microbial content of household dust associated with exhaled NO in asthmatic children

Exhaled nitric oxide (eNO) is increasingly used as a non-invasive measure of airway inflammation. Despite this, little information exists regarding the potential effects of indoor microbial components on eNO. We determined the influence of microbial contaminants in house dust and other indoor environmental characteristics on eNO levels in seven-year-olds with and without a physician-diagnosis of asthma. The study included 158 children recruited from a birth cohort study, and 32 were physician-diagnosed as asthmatic. The relationship between eNO levels and exposures to home dust streptomycetes, endotoxin, and molds was investigated. Streptomycetes and endotoxin were analyzed both as loads and concentrations in separate models. Dog, cat, and dust mite allergens also were evaluated. In the multivariate exposure models, high streptomycetes loads and concentrations were significantly associated with a decrease in eNO levels in asthmatic (p < 0.001) but not in healthy children. The presence of dog allergen, however, was associated with increased levels of eNO (p = 0.001). Dust endotoxin was not significant. The relationship between eNO and indoor exposure to common outdoor molds was u-shaped. In non-asthmatic children, none of the exposure variables was significantly associated with eNO levels. To our knowledge, this is the first study demonstrating a significant association between microbial components in the indoor environment and eNO levels in asthmatic children. This study demonstrates the importance of simultaneously assessing multiple home exposures of asthmatic children to better understand opposing effects. Common components of the indoor Streptomyces community may beneficially influence airway inflammation.     

The burden of stroke mortality attributable to cold and hot ambient temperatures: Epidemiological evidence from China

BackgroundFew data are available on the attributable burden, such as absolute excess or relative excess, of stroke death due to temperature.MethodsWe collected data on daily temperature and stroke mortality from 16 large Chinese cities during 2007–2013. First, we applied a distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the city-/age-/gender-specific temperature-mortality association over lag 0–14 days. Then, pooled estimates were calculated using a multivariate meta-analysis. Attributable deaths were calculated for cold and heat, defined as temperatures below and above the minimum-mortality temperature (MMT). Moderate and extreme temperatures were defined using cut-offs at the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of temperature.ResultsThe city-specific MMT increased from the north to the south, with a median of 24.9 ^oC. Overall, 14.5% (95% empirical confidence interval: 11.5–17.0%) of stroke mortality (114, 662 deaths) was attributed to non-optimum temperatures, with the majority being attributable to cold (13.1%, 9.7–15.7%). The proportion of temperature-related death had a decreasing trend by latitude, ranging from 22.7% in Guangzhou to 6.3% in Shenyang. Moderate temperatures accounted for 12.6% (9.1–15.3%) of stroke mortality, whereas extreme temperatures accounted for only 2.0% (1.6–2.2%) of stroke mortality. Estimates of death burden due to both cold and heat were higher among males and the elderly, compared with females and the youth.ConclusionsThe burden of temperature-related stroke mortality increased from the north to the south. Most of this burden was caused by cold temperatures. The stroke burden was higher among males and the elderly. This information has important implications for preventing stroke due to adverse temperatures in vulnerable subpopulations in China.     

Climate change,extreme events and increased risk of salmonellosis in Maryland,USA: Evidence for coastal vulnerability

BackgroundSalmonella is a leading cause of acute gastroenteritis worldwide. Patterns of salmonellosis have been linked to weather events. However, there is a dearth of data regarding the association between extreme events and risk of salmonellosis, and how this risk may disproportionately impact coastal communities.MethodsWe obtained Salmonella case data from the Maryland Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (2002–2012), and weather data from the National Climatic Data Center (1960–2012). We developed exposure metrics related to extreme temperature and precipitation events using a 30 year baseline (1960–1989) and linked them with county-level salmonellosis data. Data were analyzed using negative binomial Generalized Estimating Equations.ResultsWe observed a 4.1% increase in salmonellosis risk associated with a 1 unit increase in extreme temperature events (incidence rate ratio (IRR):1.041; 95% confidence interval (CI):1.013–1.069). This increase in risk was more pronounced in coastal versus non-coastal areas (5.1% vs 1.5%). Likewise, we observed a 5.6% increase in salmonellosis risk (IRR:1.056; CI:1.035–1.078) associated with a 1 unit increase in extreme precipitation events, with the impact disproportionately felt in coastal areas (7.1% vs 3.6%).ConclusionsTo our knowledge, this is the first empirical evidence showing that extreme temperature/precipitation events—that are expected to be more frequent and intense in coming decades—are disproportionately impacting coastal communities with regard to salmonellosis. Adaptation strategies need to account for this differential burden, particularly in light of ever increasing coastal populations.     

A new generic sub-model for radionuclide fixation in large catchments from continuous and single-pulse fallouts, as used in a river model

This paper presents a new general sub-model for fixation in catchment areas to be used within the framework of a river model for substances such as radionuclides and metals from continuous and single-pulse fallouts. The model has been critically tested using data from 27 European river sites covering a very wide geographical area and contaminated by radiocesium and radiostrontium from the Chernobyl accident and from the nuclear weapons tests (NWT fallout). This modelling approach gives radionuclide concentrations in water (total, dissolved and particulate phases) at defined sites on a monthly basis. The overall river model is based on processes in the upstream river stretch and in the catchment area. The catchment area is differentiated into inflow (approximately dry land) areas and outflow (approximately wetland) areas. The model has a general structure, which can be used for all radionuclides or substances. It is simple to apply in practice since all driving variables may be readily accessed from maps and standard monitoring programs. The driving variables are: latitude, altitude, catchment area, mean annual precipitation and fallout. Note that for large catchments, this model does not require data on the characteristic soil type or the percentage of outflow areas (wet lands) in the catchment, as in most previous models, since in practice it is very difficult to obtain reliable data on characteristic soil type or percentage of outflow areas, especially in large and topographically complex catchments. Modelled values have been compared to empirical data from rivers sites covering a wide domain (catchment areas from 3000 to 3,000,000 km2, precipitation from 400 to 1700 mm/year; fallouts from 1600 to 280,000 Bq/m2; altitudes from 0 to 1000 m.a.s.l. and latitudes from 41 degrees to 72 degrees N). The river model with its sub-model for fixation predicts close to the uncertainty factors given by the empirical data, which have been shown to be about a factor of 1.6 for 137Cs and a factor of 2.2 for 90Sr in river water. The obtained characteristic uncertainty factors for 137Cs from the Chernobyl fallout is 2.4, for 137Cs from the NWT fallout it is 1.3 and for the 90Sr results from the NWT fallout it is 3 using the new model.     

Can the observed association between serum perfluoroalkyl substances and delayed menarche be explained on the basis of puberty-related changes in physiology and pharmacokinetics?

BackgroundAn association between serum levels of two perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and delayed age at menarche was reported in a cross-sectional study of adolescents. Because perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) have half-lives of years, growth dilution and the development of a new route of excretion (menstruation) could account for some or all of the reported association.ObjectivesTo assess how much of the epidemiologic association between PFAS and delayed menarche can be explained by the correlation of growth and maturation with PFAS body burden.MethodsWe developed a Monte Carlo (MC) physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model of PFAS to simulate plasma PFAS levels in a hypothetical female population aged 2 to 20 years old. Realistic distributions of physiological parameters as well as timing of growth spurts and menarche were incorporated in the model. The association between PFAS level and delayed menarche in the simulated data was compared with the reported association.ResultsThe prevalence of menarche, distributions of age-dependent physiological parameters, and quartiles of serum PFAS concentrations in the simulated subjects were comparable to those reported in the epidemiologic study. The delay of menarche in days per natural log increase in PFAS concentrations in the simulated data were about one third as large as the observed values.ConclusionThe reported relationship between PFAS and age at menarche appears to be at least partly explained by pharmacokinetics rather than a toxic effect of these substances.     

Uncertainty analysis in 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) cancer dose–response for three occupational cohorts

While the U.S. EPA has issued a draft report with a 1% TCDD effective dose (ED₀₁) of 87.9 pg/kg/day based on continuous integration of key scientific evidence, a detailed and comprehensive uncertainty analysis has not been well documented. In this study, a new estimate for ED₀₁ was derived based on uncertainty analysis by quantitatively assessing the potential bias arising from the selection of kinetic models, dose–response models and cohorts. The cumulative serum lipid concentration (CSLC) and cumulative body burden (CBB) were reconstructed as dose metrics using a concentration- and age-dependent pharmacokinetic model (CADM), physiologically based pharmacokinetic model (PBPK), and age-dependent half-life model (FV), and the reconstructed dose metrics based on CADM and PBPK were generally higher than those based on the FV model. Three dose–response curves (linear, multiplicative and power) were used to link dose metrics and cancer risk to estimate ED₀₁, and the linear model resulted in the lowest ED₀₁, followed by the power model and multiplicative model, for the same cohort. Meanwhile, ED₀₁ based on the CADM model was the highest, followed by those based on the PBPK model and first-order model. Finally, the ED₀₁ was estimated to be 17.03 ± 7.83 pg/kg/day by statistically analyzing the distribution of ED₀₁ values based on various kinetic models, cohorts and dose–response models. The study presented here strengthens the scientific basis for understanding the potential health implications of TCDD exposure.     

Comparative analysis of land use and lake water quality in rural and urban zones of south Chennai, India

Chennai city, the capital of Tamil Nadu state in South India, has been experiencing rapid expansion since the last two decades, resulting in major changes in land use and degradation of wetlands. Small lakes in the peri-urban areas face severe strain on their environment due to transition of rural to urban conditions, leaving at stake their aquatic health and intended uses. This paper studies the role of urbanization and land use changes in the water quality of peri-urban (Rajakilpakkam) and rural (Vengaivasal) lakes. Water samples were collected and analysed for temperature, total dissolved solids, major ions, nutrients and biological oxygen demand as per standard methods. The temperature, pH and biological oxygen demand did not differ between lakes, while total dissolved solids (p = 0.008), alkalinity (p = 0.000), total hardness (p = 0.001) and phosphate (p = 0.000) were significantly higher in Rajakilpakkam. Seasonal and spatial variations in water quality between the lakes showed the direct impact of rapid and uncontrolled growth of built-up areas in the catchment area, in enhancing waste water inflows with inorganic salts and nutrients in Rajakilpakkam lake compared with Vengaivasal lake. Urbanization of the catchment and encroachments in Rajakilpakkam lake tends to reduce the social interdependence of lake and community and promote disuse, leading to decline in water quality. The impending environmental costs caused by urbanization to these lakes will only be tackled, if the main issues of domestic and industrial discharges and encroachments are addressed properly.     

Hydroxylated PCB metabolites (OH-PCBs) in archived serum from 1950–60s California mothers: A pilot study

We are studying participants selected from the Child Health and Development Studies (CHDS), a longitudinal birth cohort of over 20,000 California pregnancies between 1959 and 1967, for associations between maternal body burden of organochlorine contaminants and thyroid function. We designed a pilot study using 30 samples selected among samples with high and low PCB concentrations to evaluate the feasibility of measuring OH-PCBs in the larger study population. GC-ECD and GC-NCI/MS were used to determine PCBs and OH-PCBs as methyl derivatives, respectively. Maternal serum levels of Σ₁₁PCBs and Σ₈OH-PCB metabolites varied from 0.74 to 7.99 ng/mL wet wt. with a median of 3.05 ng/mL, and from 0.12 to 0.98 ng/mL wet wt. with a median of 0.39 ng/mL, respectively. Average concentrations of Σ₈OH-PCB metabolites in the high PCB group were significantly higher than those in the low PCB group (p < 0.05). The levels of OH-PCB metabolites were dependent on PCB levels (r = 0.58, p < 0.05) but approximately an order of magnitude lower (p < 0.05). The average ratio of Σ₈OH-PCBs to Σ₁₁PCBs was 0.14 ± 0.08. The primary metabolite was 4-OH-CB187 followed by 4-OH-CB107. Both of these metabolites interfere with the thyroid system in in vitro, animal, and human studies. OH-PCBs were detectable in all archived sera analyzed, supporting the feasibility to measure OH-PCB metabolites in the entire cohort.