Comparison and Evaluation of Gridded Precipitation Datasets in a Kansas Agricultural Watershed Using SWAT

Gridded precipitation datasets are becoming a convenient substitute for gauge measurements in hydrological modeling; however, these data have not been fully evaluated across a range of conditions. We compared four gridded datasets (Daily Surface Weather and Climatological Summaries [DAYMET], North American Land Data Assimilation System [NLDAS], Global Land Data Assimilation System [GLDAS], and Parameter‐elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model [PRISM]) as precipitation data sources and evaluated how they affected hydrologic model performance when compared with a gauged dataset, Global Historical Climatology Network‐Daily (GHCN‐D). Analyses were performed for the Delaware Watershed at Perry Lake in eastern Kansas. Precipitation indices for DAYMET and PRISM precipitation closely matched GHCN‐D, whereas NLDAS and GLDAS showed weaker correlations. We also used these precipitation data as input to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model that confirmed similar trends in streamflow simulation. For stations with complete data, GHCN‐D based SWAT‐simulated streamflow variability better than gridded precipitation data. During low flow periods we found PRISM performed better, whereas both DAYMET and NLDAS performed better in high flow years. Our results demonstrate that combining gridded precipitation sources with gauge‐based measurements can improve hydrologic model performance, especially for extreme events.     

Olive production systems on sloping land: prospects and scenarios

The ultimate objective of the EU Olivero project was to improve the quality of life of the rural population and to assure the sustainable use of the natural resources of land and water in the sloping and mountainous olive production systems (SMOPS) areas in Southern Europe. One specific objective was to develop, with end-users, alternative future scenarios for olive orchards in the five Olivero target areas. This paper discusses the development of these scenarios, and their socio-economic and environmental effects. After presenting the different production systems (SMOPS) and their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, a general overview is given of the medium- and long-term prospects. These have been validated by experts from the olive sector and foresee changes towards abandonment, intensification and organic production. On balance, the changes could lead to lower production of some target areas in future. An analysis of major external factors affecting the future development of SMOPS indicates there will be labour shortages and increased wage rates, reduced subsidies and constant or rising olive oil prices. On the basis of these assumptions, four future scenarios are developed for the five target areas, with the help of a Linear Programming simulation model. The results are presented for two target areas. For the Trás-os-Montes target area in Portugal, three of the four tested scenarios point to a high level of abandonment, while in the most positive scenario the areas under semi-intensive low input and organic SMOPS increase. In the Granada and Jaen target area in Spain, all scenarios hint at intensification, and only the orchards on the steepest slopes are likely to be abandoned. The direction and extent of environmental effects (erosion, fire risk, pollution, water use and biodiversity) differ per scenario, as do the extent of cross-compliance and agri-environmental measures.     

Downscaling climate change scenarios in an urban land use change model

The objective of this paper is to describe the process through which climate change scenarios were downscaled in an urban land use model and the results of this experimentation. The land use models (Urban Growth Model [UGM] and the Land Cover Deltatron Model [LCDM]) utilized in the project are part of the SLEUTH program which uses a probabilistic cellular automata protocol. The land use change scenario experiments were developed for the 31-county New York Metropolitan Region (NYMR) of the US Mid-Atlantic Region. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios) were used to define the narrative scenario conditions of future land use change. The specific research objectives of the land use modeling work involving the SLEUTH program were threefold: (1) Define the projected conversion probabilities and the amount of rural-to-urban land use change for the NYMR as derived by the UGM and LCDM for the years 2020 and 2050, as defined by the pattern of growth for the years 1960-1990; (2) Down-scale the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios as a narrative that could be translated into alternative growth projections; and, (3) Create two alternative future growth scenarios: A2 scenario which will be associated with more rapid land conversion than found in initial projections, and a B2 scenario which will be associated with a slower level of land conversion. The results of the modeling experiments successfully illustrate the spectrum of possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050. The application of these results into the broader scale climate and health impact study is discussed, as is the general role of land use/land cover change models in climate change studies and associated environmental management strategies.     

Modelling built-up land take in Europe to 2020: an assessment of the Resource Efficiency Roadmap measure on land

Land taken by artificial surfaces has an impact on the quality of life and ecosystems. To reduce possible negative impacts of land take, the European Commission proposed setting a milestone objective for 2020 in terms of future rates of land take.

This paper describes a methodology to model the impacts of the 2020 land-take milestone proposed in the RERM in the European Union 27 MS. An integrated modelling framework was configured to assess the spatial impact of two land-take scenarios: a ‘Reference’ scenario, which is driven by demographic and economic trends, and a ‘Target 0’ scenario that follows the 2020 land-take milestone proposed in the RERM. We conclude that the implementation of the 2020 land-take milestone, by reducing future land take in Europe, will foster more efficient use of land (less land taken for the same activity levels) and minimise negative impacts on non-artificial land uses.     

Predicting land cover using GIS, Bayesian and evolutionary algorithm methods

Modelling land cover change from existing land cover maps is a vital requirement for anyone wishing to understand how the landscape may change in the future. In order to test any land cover change model, existing data must be used. However, often it is not known which data should be applied to the problem, or whether relationships exist within and between complex datasets. Here we have developed and tested a model that applied evolutionary processes to Bayesian networks. The model was developed and tested on a dataset containing land cover information and environmental data, in order to show that decisions about which datasets should be used could be made automatically. Bayesian networks are amenable to evolutionary methods as they can be easily described using a binary string to which crossover and mutation operations can be applied. The method, developed to allow comparison with standard Bayesian network development software, was proved capable of carrying out a rapid and effective search of the space of possible networks in order to find an optimal or near-optimal solution for the selection of datasets that have causal links with one another. Comparison of land cover mapping in the North-East of Scotland was made with a commercial Bayesian software package, with the evolutionary method being shown to provide greater flexibility in its ability to adapt to incorporate/utilise available evidence/knowledge and develop effective and accurate network structures, at the cost of requiring additional computer programming skills. The dataset used to develop the models included GIS-based data taken from the Land Cover for Scotland 1988 (LCS88), Land Capability for Forestry (LCF), Land Capability for Agriculture (LCA), the soil map of Scotland and additional climatic variables.     

TIM: Assessing the sustainability of agricultural land management

TIM (Threat Identification Model) is a framework for the ex ante assessment of agricultural land management sustainability at the land unit scale that identifies sources of unsustainability within agricultural land management systems. The model explicitly links defined hazards to land productivity and environmental integrity, land resource data and information, and land management practice options using expert and local knowledge on land management and its potential effects. The model was tested in the Crystal Creek Subcatchment, a narrow coastal strip of land situated in north Queensland, Australia. This area was chosen due to the expansion of the sugar industry onto increasingly marginal land in the area, which represents a threat to sustainable land use and a requirement for careful land-use planning and land management.TIM may be used in a relational database as a stand alone decision support system for land-management planning. Its usefulness in land-use planning is greatest when it is linked to a Geographic Information System (GIS) as shown in this paper. GIS allows TIM outputs, such as constraints to agriculture and site-specific best-management practices, to be identified in a spatially explicit manner.The main advantages of TIM are that it can be done ex ante, it removes the need to define sustainability assessment criteria and indicators, it utilises current understanding of the causes and effects of land degradation and how different land-management practices influence these, and links this knowledge to definite land-management options.     

DOWNSCALED CLIMATE AND STREAMFLOW STUDY OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Downscaling coarse resolution climate data to scales that are useful for impact assessment studies is receiving increased attention. Basin-scale hydrologic processes and other local climate impacts related to water resources such as reservoir management, crop and forest productivity, and ecosystem response require climate information at scales that are much finer than current and future GCM resolutions. The Regional Climate System Model (RCSM) is a dynamic downscaling system that has been used since 1994 for short-term precipitation and streamflow predictions and seasonal hindcast analysis with good skill. During the 1997–1998 winter, experimental seasonal forecasts were made in collaboration with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center and UCLA with promising results. Preliminary studies of a control and 2°CO₂ perturbation for the southwestern U.S. have been performed.     

A review of methods of public land ownership and allocation for housing in Iran

In the aftermath of the 1979 revolution, the new administration adopted a number of policies to address the question of land ownership, supply and allocation in order to tackle the acute shortage of housing in the urban areas. In 1982, the Five‐Year Urban Land Act was passed by the Parliament. Subsequently a body called the Urban Land Organisation (ULO) was set up to co‐ordinate the process of land preparation and allocation. The 1982 Urban Land act empowered the government to: (a) expropriate certain categories of abandoned urban land, and (b) to set a temporary time schedule of five years during which the act's work will be monitored.

This paper sets out to examine the policies related to urban land which have been introduced and implemented in the 1980s in Iran.     

Predicting the distribution of ground beetle species (Coleoptera, Carabidae) in Britain using land cover variables

Predictions of plant and animal species distributions are important for conservation and for the assessment of large-scale ecosystem change. Land cover data are becoming more widely available for use in land management and conservation. We use a logistic regression modelling approach to investigate the utility of these data for modelling. The relationship between the distribution of 137 British ground beetles species and land cover was investigated using data from 1,687 10 km national grid squares. Land cover data were simplified using ordination and the axes used as predictors in logistic regression with presence absence data for individual beetle species as response variables. Significant regression models were generated for all species with first and second axis scores. The amounts of variation explained by models were generally low, but predictions derived from models generally matched the known distributions of the species in Britain. Species with coastal preferences were poorly modelled and predicted to occur throughout lowland Britain whilst a number of species occurring in southern Britain were predicted to occur into Scotland. A validation exercise comparing model predictions with new data from a survey of 59 10 km(2) produced mixed results with the distribution of grassland species being better predicted than riverine species. Jack-knifing was used to assess the robustness of models for four species which differed in their apparent responses to the land cover variables. Methods for improving the predictive power of these models and their potential for use in assessing the impact of global climate change are discussed.     

几种大气预测模式预测结果比较分析

估算模式、AERMOD模式系统、ADMS模式系统均是HJ2.2-2008《环境影响评价技术导则大气环境》中推荐的大气预测模式,为探求此3种大气预测模式预测结果的大小关系规律,选用估算模式、AERMOD模式系统、ADMS模式系统,在简单地形和复杂地形两种条件下,结合一般工业类环评项目中常见的点源、面源案例,对不同预测模式的大气预测结果进行比较分析,得出相应的规律,对环评工作中进一步预测模式的选用具有一定的参考借鉴意义。     

Accuracy Assessment of NOAA Gridded Daily Reference Evapotranspiration for the Texas High Plains

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides daily reference evapotranspiration (ET_ref) maps for the contiguous United States using climatic data from North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). This data provides large‐scale spatial representation of ET_ref, which is essential for regional scale water resources management. Data used in the development of NOAA daily ET_ref maps are derived from observations over surfaces that are different from short (grass — ET_os) or tall (alfalfa — ET_rs) reference crops, often in nonagricultural settings, which carries an unknown discrepancy between assumed and actual conditions. In this study, NOAA daily ET_os and ET_rs maps were evaluated for accuracy, using observed data from the Texas High Plains Evapotranspiration (TXHPET) network. Daily ET_os, ET_rs and the climatic data (air temperature, wind speed, and solar radiation) used for calculating ET_ref were extracted from the NOAA maps for TXHPET locations and compared against ground measurements on reference grass surfaces. NOAA ET_ref maps generally overestimated the TXHPET observations (1.4 and 2.2 mm/day ET_os and ET_rs, respectively), which may be attributed to errors in the NLDAS modeled air temperature and wind speed, to which reference ET_ref is most sensitive. Therefore, a bias correction to NLDAS modeled air temperature and wind speed data, or adjustment to the resulting NOAA ET_ref, may be needed to improve the accuracy of NOAA ET_ref maps.     

OLIVERO: the project analysing the future of olive production systems on sloping land in the Mediterranean basin

From 2003 to 2006, a consortium of six European partners analysed the future of olive production systems on sloping land in the Mediterranean basin. Olive production on such land dates back to pre-Roman times, but the production systems (known by the acronym SMOPS, for "Sloping and Mountainous Olive Production Systems"), are under threat. Many are unsustainable environmentally (erosion hazard), socially (exodus of young people) or economically (high labour costs). The OLIVERO research project was possible thanks to a grant of euro1.5 million from the European Union, which gives out euro2.5 billion in subsidies annually for olive production. An extended survey conducted by the project in five sites in Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece revealed the diversity and multifunctionality of SMOPS. Four main systems were identified as important for the future: traditional, organic, semi-intensive and intensive. The conceptual framework of OLIVERO involved six phases, ranging from the initial survey up to policy recommendations. In all phases there was intensive contact with stakeholders and institutions. End-users were identified at three levels: local, intermediate and regional, and national/international. This paper presents the highlights of the physical analysis of land and water resources, crop and land management, and economics and policies. Scenario studies gave insight into the possible future: some SMOPS will be gradually abandoned or transformed into nature conservation areas, others will exploit drip irrigation and follow the intensification patterns of agriculture in the valleys, and a third group will continue to be managed more extensively, perhaps augmenting their income with other activities (possibly off-farm) or turning to organic production systems. At the five international OLIVERO meetings held from 2003 to 2006, knowledge, experience and ideas on the future of olive production systems were intensively exchanged. A network was established for ongoing and future cooperation. Two end-user seminars were held in Matera (Italy) and Lisbon. Over 70 scientific papers have been published.     

ARCGIS‐SWAT: A GEODATA MODEL AND GIS INTERFACE FOR SWAT1

This paper presents ArcGIS‐SWAT, a geodata model and geographic information system (GIS) interface for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The ArcGIS‐SWAT data model is a system of geodatabases that store SWAT geographic, numeric, and text input data and results in an organized fashion. Thus, it is proposed that a single and comprehensive geodatabase be used as the repository of a SWAT simulation. The ArcGIS‐SWAT interface uses programming objects that conform to the Component Object Model (COM) design standard, which facilitate the use of functionality of other Windows‐based applications within ArcGIS‐SWAT. In particular, the use of MS Excel and MATLAB functionality for data analysis and visualization of results is demonstrated. Likewise, it is proposed to conduct hydrologic model integration through the sharing of information with a not‐model‐specific hub data model where information common to different models can be stored and from which it can be retrieved. As an example, it is demonstrated how the Hydrologic Modeling System (HMS) ‐ a computer application for flood analysis ‐ can use information originally developed by ArcGIS‐SWAT for SWAT. The application of ArcGIS‐SWAT to the Seco Creek watershed in Texas is presented.     

Free and conjugated estrogen exports in surface-runoff from poultry litter-amended soil

Land application of animal manures such as poultry litter is a common practice, especially in states with surplus manure. Past studies have shown that animal manure may contain estrogens, which are classified as endocrine-disrupting chemicals and may pose a threat to aquatic and wildlife species. We evaluated the concentrations of estrogens in surface runoff from experimental plots (5 x 12 m each) receiving raw and pelletized poultry litter. We evaluated the free (estrone, E1; 17beta-estradiol, E2beta; estriol, E3) and conjugate forms (glucuronides and sulfates) of estrogens, which differ in their toxicity. Sampling was performed for 10 natural storm events over a 4-mo period (April-July 2008). Estrogen concentrations were screened using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), followed by quantification using liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS/MS). Concentrations of estrogens from ELISA were much higher than the LC/MS/MS values, indicating crossreactivity with organic compounds. Exports of estrogens were much lower from soils amended with pelletized poultry litter than the raw form of the litter. No-tillage management practice also resulted in a lower export of estrogens with surface runoff compared with reduced tillage. The concentrations and exports of conjugate forms of estrogens were much higher than the free forms for some treatments, indicating that the conjugate forms should be considered for a comprehensive assessment of the threat posed by estrogens.     

Toward sustainable livelihoods after war: Reconstituting rural land tenure systems

Land tenure plays a primary role in sustainable development efforts. However armed conflict and its repercussions reconfigure the network of social relations upon which all land tenure systems depend. In post‐conflict settings new laws have the opportunity to address tenure issues in the context of what people are already doing ‘on the ground’, with a view to moving from the fluidity of post‐conflict situations to a more solidified and peaceful social and legal environment. However there exists a lack of tools to analyze postwar land tenure and the prospects for reconstituting tenure systems to support recovery and development. This paper uses the Sustainable Livelihoods framework to examine postwar land tenure issues in order to draw out latent opportunities within emergent informal smallholder tenure constructs which may have utility in the reconstitution of national tenure systems.     

Influence of plant growth on degradation of linear alkylbenzene sulfonate in sludge-amended soil

Widespread application of sewage sludge to agricultural soils in Denmark has led to concern about the possible accumulation and effects of linear alkylbenzene sulfonate (LAS) in the soil ecosystem. Therefore, we have studied the uptake and degradation of LAS in greenhouse pot experiments. Sewage sludge was incorporated into a sandy soil to give a range from very low to very high applications (0.4 to 90 Mg dry wt. ha(-1)). In addition, LAS was added as water solutions. The soil was transferred to pots and sown with barley (Hordeum vulgare L. cv. Apex), rape (Brassica napus L. cv. Hyola 401), or carrot (Daucus carota L.). Also, plant-free controls were established. For all additions there was no plant uptake above the detection limit at 0.5 mg LAS kg(-1) d.w, but plant growth stimulated the degradation. With a growth period of 30 d, LAS concentrations in soil from pots with rape had dropped from 27 to 1.4 mg kg(-1) dry wt., but in plant-free pots the concentration decreased only to 2.4 mg kg(-1) dry wt. When LAS was added as a spike, the final concentration in soil from planted pots was 0.7 mg kg(-1) dry wt., but in pots without plants the final concentration was much higher (2.5 mg kg(-1) dry wt.). During degradation, the relative fraction of homologues C10, C11, and C12 decreased, while C13 increased.     

Toward an improved legislative framework for China's land degradation control

The Chinese government has recently been attaching increasing importance to the application of effective legal tools to tackle land degradation (LD) issues. Based on the concept of sustainable development, China began developing and reaping the benefits of environmental and natural resources legislation including LD control regulations in the 1990s. In the past three years, some central‐western provinces in China have been implementing a “ People's Republic of China/Global Environment Facility (PRC/GEF ) Partnership on LD Control of Dryland Ecosystems”, which is based on an integrated ecosystem management (IEM) approach. IEM is designed to achieve a balanced, scientific and participatory approach to natural resources management, which creates the potential to improve the quality of Chinese environmental law and policy procedures. The paper studies the existing Chinese national laws and regulations pertinent to LD control within 9 areas covering land, desertification, soil erosion, grassland, forest, water, agriculture, wild animals and plants, and environment protection in detail, against IEM principles and basic legal elements. The main objective is to identify problems and provide feasible solutions and recommendations for the improvement of the existing laws and regulations. The authors conclude that the development of an improved national legislative framework is essential if LD control is to be successfully achieved. The paper is partly based on Component 1 — Improving Policies, Laws and Regulations for Land Degradation Control under PRC/GEF Partnership on Land Degradation in Dryland Ecosystems (TA 4357).     

Applying value of information methods to prioritize elements for water quality management with an example of linear alkylbenzene sulfonate in the Yodo River,Japan

Narrowing the decision space is crucial in water quality management at the meso-scale for developing countries, where a lack of data and financial budgets prevent the development of appropriate management plans and result in serious water quality degradation in many rivers. In this study, a framework for handling this task is proposed, comprising a lumped water quality model, with sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, and a management domain, including loss estimation and value of information analysis. Through a case study with linear alkylbenzene sulfonate (LAS) in the Yodo River, it is found that non-point sources and flow rate are factors that influence LAS concentration at the hot spot location. By considering the entire process of water quality management planning, we identify that the definition of the cost function of LAS treatment determines the appropriate estimation for the expected loss in reducing LAS under uncertain water quality conditions. The value of information analysis with “expected value of including uncertainty” and “expected value of perfect information” further helps estimate the benefit of including uncertainty in decision-making and the financial cost for obtaining more information regarding inputs that have been previously prioritized.     

Towards a grand deal on subsidies and climate change

Recent studies have identified public subsidies as a principal cause of unsustainable development. Worldwide, governments are spending up to $U950 billion a year on subsidies. Many of these public subsidies fail to serve their purpose and in fact, often turn out as policy failures as they further distort trade and cause environmental harm. The energy sector is among the most subsidized sectors in the world, receiving over $U240 billion per annum of public subsidies. This article highlights current energy subsidies and their implications. The article examines: (i) the global size and distribution of energy subsidies in industrialized and developing countries; (ii) the impact of these subsidies on the economy, equity and the environment and their role as barriers for sustainable development; (iii) the political economy behind public subsidies and the various political and institutional barriers and lock-in mechanisms that cause subsidies to become entrenched in economic and public structures; and (iv) proposals for effective subsidy reform in energy policies, suggesting a global strategy to eliminate energy subsidies. OECD governments are in a position to take the lead, and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change presents an excellent opportunity of striking a political grand deal and linking the reform of energy subsidies to a meaningful participation of developing countries to the Kyoto Protocol. Moreover, if sinks are to be included in the clean development mechanism (CDM), it is crucial to include the removal of forestry subsidies in the grand deal.     

Incentive problems in Canada's land markets: Emphasis on Ontario

The specific issue addressed in this paper is urban encroachment on agricultural lands, and the problems it poses for both analysis and the conservation of the land resource. The purpose of our discussion is two-fold: (1) to identify where and why traditional analytical and regulatory approaches fail to resolve land use conflicts, and (2) to explore ways and means of resolving some of the dilemmas which society faces in making land use decisions. This paper's contribution is in the spirit of Getting Incentives Right for the inter-temporal transfer of wealth, as represented in trade-offs between environmental and resource endowments and human and physical capital. Efforts are placed on identifying what the appropriate price, levy, taxes, and grant ratios ought to be in order to encourage individuals in the marketplace to act in society's interest. We have also explored ways of efficiently transmitting those incentives through the market mechanism, without unduly relying on bureaucratic methods or suasion. Emphasis is placed on mechanisms that have little scope for preferential access and are subject to public scrutiny; emphasis on such self-disciplining approaches should result in less effort expended on (unproductive) lobbying activities and bureaucratic administration.Brad Gilmour and Ted Huffman are Policy Analyst and Land Use Specialist respectively with Agriculture and Agri-food Canada. Andy Terauds and Charlie Jefferson are chairman and secretary respectively for the Ontario Institute of Agrologists Ottawa Branch Land Use Committee. This paper is intended to provoke thought and stimulate debate for input into the land use policy process and should not be seen as representing the views and policies of either Agriculture Canada or the Ontario Institute of Agrologists.