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This article analyses the debate associated with the ancillary impacts of climate change mitigation options in developing
countries, with a particular focus upon Africa’s 34 least developed countries. While these countries’ emissions of greenhouse
gases are relatively small (and they do not have emission limitation commitments in the current international regime), inattention
to the mitigation agenda would mean that developing countries both miss potential funding opportunities and fail to ‘climate-proof’
their development strategies. A focus, therefore, upon the short-term, local, developmental impacts that serve to change the
relative attractiveness of different mitigation options from the perspective of the developing country is in these countries’
current strategic interests. In this article, I examine three energy-related climate change mitigation options: improved cookstoves,
carbon-free electricity and improved energy efficiency in industry. Key ancillary impacts are better indoor air quality, better
outdoor air quality and job creation (respectively). Further work to strengthen the evidence base regarding these impacts
needs to be undertaken, potentially drawing upon broader work that has already been completed. Thus, in conclusion, a call
for cross-fertilisation of information between heretofore disparate research communities is made. Additionally, the development
of an integrated research agenda, forging linkages among cookstoves, indoor air quality and climate change mitigation research
communities in Africa’s least developed countries, is identified as a priority. 相似文献
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Pytrik Reidsma Alfons Oude Lansink Frank Ewert 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2009,14(1):35-59
In order to assess agricultural adaptation to climate impacts, new methodologies are needed. The translog distance function
allows assessing interactions between different factors, and hence the influence of management on climate impacts. The Farm
Accountancy Data Network provides extensive data on farm characteristics of farms throughout the EU15 (i.e. the 15 member
states of the European Union before the extension in 2004). These data on farm inputs and outputs from 1990−2003 are coupled
with climate data. As climate change is not the only change affecting European agriculture, we also include effects of subsidies
and other changes on inputs and outputs of farms throughout Europe. We distinguish several regions and empirically assess
(1) climate impacts on farm inputs and outputs in different regions and (2) interactions between inputs and other factors
that contribute to the adaptation to these impacts. Changes in production can partly be related to climatic variability and
change, but also subsidies and other developments (e.g. technology, markets) are important. Results show that impacts differ
per region, and that ‘actual impacts’ cannot be explicitly separated into ‘potential impacts’ and ‘adaptive capacity’ as often
proposed for vulnerability assessment. Farmers adapt their practices to prevailing conditions and continuously adapt to changing
conditions. Therefore, ‘potential impacts’ will not be observed in practice, leaving it as a mainly theoretical concept. Factors
that contribute to the adaptation also differ per region. In some regions more fertilizers or more irrigation can mitigate
impacts, while in other regions this amplifies impacts. To project impacts of future climate change on agriculture, current
farm management strategies and their influence on current production should be considered. This clearly asks for improved
integration of biophysical and economic models. 相似文献
4.
André Felipe Simões Debora Cynamon Kligerman Emilio Lèbre La Rovere Maria Regina Maroun Martha Barata Martin Obermaier 《Environmental Science & Policy》2010,13(8):801-808
Climate change is one of the main challenges faced by mankind in this century. Although developing countries have little historical responsibility for climate change, they are likely to be most affected by it since they lack resources to cope with or to adapt to its effects. Studies show that the semi-arid northeast region of Brazil – where the country's poorest populations are concentrated – is one of the most vulnerable to climate change and thus likely to suffer its impacts more severely. The present paper addresses these problems by presenting a concrete initiative for strengthening adaptive capacity in the rural community of Pintadas as a first step in the development of a comprehensive methodology to help smallholder farmers in the region adapt to climate change. Based on the project results this paper highlights the integration of development, adaptive capacity and adaptation strategies. Furthermore, the necessity of vulnerability studies and concrete local experiences is highlighted in order to develop adaptation strategies that can alleviate poverty and minimize climate change impacts for the poor. 相似文献
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Walter Leal Filho Francine Modesto Gustavo J. Nagy Mustafa Saroar Nsani YannickToamukum Michael Ha’apio 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2018,23(4):579-602
This paper describes a comparative study of four different cases on vulnerability, hazards and adaptive capacity to climate threats in coastal areas and communities in four developing countries: Bangladesh, Brazil, Cameroon and Uruguay. Coastal areas are vulnerable to sea-level rise (SLR), storm surges and flooding due to their (i) exposure, (ii) concentration of settlements, many of which occupied by less advantaged groups and (iii) the concentration of assets and services seen in these areas. The objective of the paper is twofold: (i) to evaluate current evidence of coastal vulnerability and adaptive capacity and (ii) to compare adaptation strategies being implemented in a sample of developing countries, focusing on successful ones. The followed approach for the case evaluation is based on (i) documenting observed threats and damages, (ii) using indicators of physical and socioeconomic vulnerability and adaptive capacity status and (iii) selecting examples of successful responses. Major conclusions based on cross-case comparison are (a) the studied countries show different vulnerability, adaptive capacity and implementation of responses, (b) innovative community-based (CBA) and ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) and (c) early warning systems are key approaches and tools to foster climate resilience. A recommendation to foster the resilience of coastal communities and services is that efforts in innovative adaptation strategies to sea-level rise should be intensified and integrated with climate risk management within the national adaption plans (NAPAs) in order to reduce the impacts of hazards. 相似文献
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Aggrey Ochieng Adimo John Bosco Njoroge Leaven Claessens Leonard S. Wamocho 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2012,17(2):153-171
Climate variability and change mitigation and adaptation policies need to prioritize land users needs at local level because
it is at this level that impact is felt most. In order to address the challenge of socio-economic and unique regional geographical
setting, a customized methodological framework was developed for application in assessment of climate change vulnerability
perception and adaptation options around the East African region. Indicators of climate change and variability most appropriate
for the region were derived from focused discussions involving key informants in various sectors of the economy drawn from
three East African countries. Using these indicators, a structured questionnaire was developed from which surveys and interviews
were done on selected sample of target population of farming communities in the Mt. Kenya region. The key highlights of the
questionnaire were vulnerability and adaptation. Data obtained from respondents was standardized and subjected to multivariate
and ANOVA analysis. Based on principle component analysis (PCA), two main vulnerability categories were identified namely
the social and the bio-physical vulnerability indicators. Analysis of variance using Kruskal-Wallis test showed significant
statistical variation (P ≤ 0.05) in the perceived vulnerability across the spatial distribution of the 198 respondents. Three insights were distinguished
and were discernible by agro-ecological zones. Different vulnerability profiles and adaptive capacity profiles were generated
demonstrating the need for prioritizing adaptation and mitigation efforts at local level. There was a high correlation between
the bio-physical and social factor/livelihood variables that were assessed. 相似文献
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Karen Hardee Clive Mutunga 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2010,15(2):113-126
As climate change adaptation planning moves beyond short term National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) to longer-term
approaches, it is instructive to review the NAPA process and examine how well it was linked to national development planning.
This paper reviews 41 NAPAs submitted by Least Developed Countries (LDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC), to assess the NAPA process in terms of NAPAs integration with countries’ national development strategies.
The review outlines the actors involved in developing NAPAs and identifies the range of interventions included in countries’
priority adaptation actions. The paper uses the example of population as an issue related to both climate change and national
development to assess how it is addressed as part of LDCs’ adaptation and national development agendas. The analysis shows
that although countries recognize population pressure as an issue related to the ability to cope with climate change and as
a factor hindering progress in meeting development goals, it is not well incorporated into either adaptation planning or in
national development strategies. Among the 41 NAPAs, 37 link high and rapid population growth to climate change. Moreover,
six NAPAs clearly state that slowing population growth or investments in reproductive health/family planning (RH/FP) should
be considered among the country’s priority adaptation actions. Furthermore, two NAPAs actually propose a project with components
of RH/FP among their priority adaptation interventions, although none of them has yet been funded. The paper points to structural
issues that hamper better alignment between climate change adaptation and national development planning and offers recommendations
for longer-term adaptation strategies that better meet the development needs of countries. 相似文献
8.
Igniting change in local government: lessons learned from a bushfire vulnerability assessment 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
B. L. Preston C. Brooke T. G. Measham T. F. Smith R. Gorddard 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2009,14(3):251-283
Local governments and communities have a critical role to play in adapting to climate variability and change. Spatial vulnerability
assessment is one tool that can facilitate engagement between researchers and local stakeholders through the visualisation
of climate vulnerability and the integration of its biophysical and socio-economic determinants. This has been demonstrated
through a case study from Sydney, Australia where a bushfire vulnerability assessment was undertaken as the first-step in
a project to investigate local government perceptions of climate vulnerability and adaptive capacity. A series of relevant
biophysical and socio-economic indicators was identified that represented the region’s exposure, sensitivity and adaptive
capacity with respect to bushfires. These indicators were then combined to develop maps of net landscape vulnerability to
bushfire. When presented in a workshop setting, vulnerability maps were successful in capturing the attention of stakeholders
while simultaneously conveying information regarding the diversity of drivers that can contribute to current and future vulnerability.
However, stakeholders were reluctant to embrace representations of vulnerability that differed from their own understanding
of hazard, necessitating the demonstration of agreement between the vulnerability assessment and more conventional hazard
assessment tools. This validation opened the door for public dissemination of vulnerability maps, the uptake and use of the
assessment in local government risk assessment and adaptation planning, and more focused case-studies on barriers to adaptation. 相似文献
9.
Synergisms between climate change mitigation and adaptation: an insurance perspective 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Evan Mills 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(5):809-842
As the world’s largest industry, the insurance sector is both an aggregator of the impacts of climate change and a market
actor able to play a material role in decreasing the vulnerability of human and natural systems. This article reviews the
implications of climate change for insurers and provides specific examples of insurance-relevant synergisms between adaptation
and mitigation in the buildings and energy sectors, agriculture, forestry, and land use. Although insurance is far from a
“silver bullet” in addressing climate change, it offers significant capacity and ability to understand, manage, and spread
risks associated with weather-related events, more so today in industrialized countries but increasingly so in developing
countries and economies in transition. Certain measures that integrate climate change mitigation and adaptation also bolster
insurers’ solvency and profitability, thereby increasing their appeal. Promising strategies involve innovative products and
systems for delivering insurance and the use of new technologies and practices that both reduce vulnerability to disaster-related
losses and support sustainable development. However, climate change promises to erode the insurability of many risks, and
insurance responses can be more reactive than proactive, resulting in compromised insurance affordability and/or availability.
Public–private partnerships involving insurers and entities such as the international relief community offer considerable
potential, but have not been adequately explored.
相似文献
Evan MillsEmail: URL: http://insurance.lbl.gov |
10.
A stakeholder driven process to reduce vulnerability to climate change in Hermosillo,Sonora, Mexico 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Hallie Eakin Victor Magaña Joel Smith José Luis Moreno José Maria Martínez Osvaldo Landavazo 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(5):935-955
While there is a growing body of knowledge on potential impacts of climate change on water availability, there has been much
less empirical research on exploring the viability of particular adaptation options. The participation of stakeholders in
defining appropriate adaptation strategies is increasingly recognized as a critical element in the translation of climate
change impact research into effective actions to reduce future vulnerability, yet the process by which stakeholders are included
in such initiatives is not well-defined. This article presents the results of a pilot project in which a participatory approach
was employed to identify and evaluate adaptation options to climate change scenarios for Sonora’s capital city, Hermosillo.
In an iterative process, stakeholders representing different water users and managers in the city met to discuss climate change
scenarios, identify specific adaptation options, and evaluate a subset of options for possible future implementation. This
process enabled the focus of the investigation on those adaptations that addressed not only concerns with the potential future
impacts of climate change but also the immediate and pressing concerns about development patterns and water use in the city.
Two of the adaptations to climate change identified by stakeholders would also reduce energy demand. The simplicity of the
approach makes it a feasible model for adaptation initiatives in other regions of Mexico and in other countries in Latin America.
相似文献
Osvaldo LandavazoEmail: |
11.
Future climate change directly impacts crop agriculture by altering temperature and precipitation regimes, crop yields, crop
enterprise net returns, and net farm income. Most previous studies assess the potential impacts of agricultural adaptation
to climate change on crop yields. This study attempts to evaluate the potential impacts of crop producers’ adaptation to future
climate change on crop yield, crop enterprise net returns, and net farm income in Flathead Valley, Montana, USA. Crop enterprises
refer to the combinations of inputs (e.g., land, labor, and capital) and field operations used to produce a crop. Two crop
enterprise adaptations are evaluated: flexible scheduling of field operations; and crop irrigation. All crop yields are simulated
using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model. Net farm income is assessed for small and large representative
farms and two soils in the study area. Results show that average crop yields in the future period (2006–2050) without adaptation
are between 7% and 48% lower than in the historical period (1960–2005). Flexible scheduling of the operations used in crop
enterprises does not appear to be an economically efficient form of crop enterprise adaptation because it does not improve
crop yields and crop enterprise net returns in the future period. With irrigation, crop yields are generally higher for all
crop enterprises and crop enterprise net returns increase for the canola and alfalfa enterprises but decrease for all other
assessed crop enterprises relative to no adaptation. Overall, average crop enterprise net return in the future period is 45%
lower with than without irrigation. Net farm income decreases for both the large and small representative farms with both
flexible scheduling and irrigation. Results indicate that flexible scheduling and irrigation adaptation are unlikely to reduce
the potential adverse economic impacts of climate change on crop producers in Montana’s Flathead Valley. 相似文献
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Ana Iglesias Luis Garrote Agustin Diz Jeremy Schlickenrieder Francisco Martin-CarrascoAuthor vitae 《Environmental Science & Policy》2011,14(7):744-757
Water is scarce in Mediterranean countries: cities are crowded with increasing demand; food is produced with large amounts of water; ecosystems demand more water that is often available; drought affects all. As climate change impacts become more noticeable and costlier, some current water management strategies will not be useful. According to the findings of CIRCE, the areas with limited water resources will increase in the coming decades with major consequences for the way we produce food and we protect ecosystems. Based on these projections this paper discusses water policy priorities for climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean. We first summarise the main challenges to water resources in Mediterranean countries and outline the risks and opportunities for water under climate change based on previous studies. Recognising the difficulty to go from precipitation to water policy, we then present a framework to evaluate water availability in response to natural and management conditions, with an example of application in the Ebro basin that exemplifies other Mediterranean areas. Then we evaluate adaptive capacity to understand the ability of Mediterranean countries to face, respond and recover from climate change impacts on water resources. Social and economic factors are key drivers of inequality in the adaptive capacity across the region. Based on the assessment of impacts and adaptive capacity we suggest thresholds for water policy to respond to climate change and link water scarcity indicators to relevant potential adaptation strategies. Our results suggest the need to further prioritise socially and economically sensitive policies. 相似文献
13.
Chen Chen Jessica Hellmann Lea Berrang-Ford Ian Noble Patrick Regan 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2018,23(1):101-122
Equity and efficiency should be considered when allocating resources for climate change adaptation. More than a decade after the Least Developed Countries Fund approved adaptation funds for 18 countries in 2003, it is possible to take the stock of investment data and to test empirically whether equity and efficiency have been factored into adaptation investment decision-making. To evaluate equity, one must determine if resources were distributed to areas of greatest need. Vulnerability assessments provide information on the global distribution of the need for adaptation. To evaluate efficiency, one must compare cost and benefit of an investment. Although it is difficult to assess ex-ante the cost and benefit of investment strategies, it is possible to measure efficient use of expenditures with readiness assessment, as a metric of capacity to deploy adaptation resources. We used vulnerability and readiness measures of the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) Country Index as proxies of equity and efficiency. This article quantitatively interrogates—through the lens of public fund allocation—the roles of vulnerability and readiness in shaping adaptation investment decisions. Our findings suggest that countries facing increasing impacts from climate change have received more adaptation investments from international sources than countries with less vulnerability. Further, international investments also preferentially flow to countries that are more ready to deploy adaptation resources. Since the most vulnerable countries are likely to be less ready for investment, our findings support the efforts to improve the investment potential of the most vulnerable countries by investing first to enhance their readiness, in order to unlock adaptation solutions. 相似文献
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Munang Tingem Mike Rivington 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2009,14(2):153-168
The Cameroonian agricultural sector, a critical part of the local ecosystem, is potentially vulnerable to climate change raising
concerns about food security in the country’s future. Adaptations policies may be able to mitigate some of this vulnerability.
This article investigates and addresses the issue of selected adaptation options within the context of Cameroonian food production.
A methodology is applied where transient diagnostics of two atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, the NASA/Goddard
Institute GISS and the British HadCM3, are coupled to a cropping system simulation model (CropSyst) to simulate current and
future (2020, 2080) crop yields for selected key crops (bambara nut, groundnut, maize, sorghum, and soybean) in eight agricultural
regions of Cameroon. Our results show that for the future, substantial yield increases are estimated for bambara groundnut,
soybean and groundnut, while little or no change or even decreases for maize and sorghum yields, varying according to the
climate scenario and the agricultural region investigated. Taking the “no regrets” principle into consideration, we explore
the advantages of specific adaptation strategies specifically for three crops viz. maize, sorghum and bambara groundnut, under
GISS A2 and B2 marker scenarios only. Changing sowing dates may be ineffective in counteracting adverse climatic effects because
of the narrow rainfall band that strictly determines the timing of farm operations in Cameroon. In contrast, the possibility
of developing later maturing new cultivars proved to be extremely effective in offsetting adverse impacts, giving the highest
increases in productivity under different scenario projections without management changes. For example, under climate change
scenario GISS A2 2080, a 14.6% reduction in maize yield was converted to a 32.1% increase; a 39.9% decrease in sorghum yield
was converted to a 17.6% increase, and for bambara groundnut (an under-researched and underutilised African legume), yields
were almost trebled (37.1% increase above that for sowing date alone (12.9%)) due to increase length of growing period and
the positive effects of higher CO2 concentrations. These results may better inform wider studies and development strategies on sustainable agriculture in the
area by providing an indication as to the potential direction in shifts in production capabilities. Our approach highlights
the benefit of using models as tools to investigate potential climate change impacts, where results can supplement existing
knowledge. The results provide useful guidance and motivation to public authorities and development agencies interested in
food security issues in Cameroon and elsewhere. 相似文献
15.
Kattarkandi Byjesh Soora Naresh Kumar Pramod Kumar Aggarwal 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2010,15(5):413-431
Climate change associated global warming, rise in carbon dioxide concentration and uncertainties in precipitation has profound
implications on Indian agriculture. Maize (Zea mays L.), the third most important cereal crop in India, has a major role to play in country’s food security. Thus, it is important
to analyze the consequence of climate change on maize productivity in major maize producing regions in India and elucidate
potential adaptive strategy to minimize the adverse effects. Calibrated and validated InfoCrop-MAIZE model was used for analyzing
the impacts of increase in temperature, carbon dioxide (CO2) and change in rainfall apart from HadCM3 A2a scenario for 2020, 2050 and 2080. The main insights from the analysis are threefold.
First, maize yields in monsoon are projected to be adversely affected due to rise in atmospheric temperature; but increased
rainfall can partly offset those loses. During winter, maize grain yield is projected to reduced with increase in temperature
in two of the regions (Mid Indo-Gangetic Plains or MIGP, and Southern Plateau or SP), but in the Upper Indo-Gangetic Plain
(UIGP), where relatively low temperatures prevail during winter, yield increased up to a 2.7°C rise in temperature. Variation
in rainfall may not have a major impact on winter yields, as the crop is already well irrigated. Secondly, the spatio-temporal
variations in projected changes in temperature and rainfall are likely to lead to differential impacts in the different regions.
In particular, monsoon yield is reduced most in SP (up to 35%), winter yield is reduced most in MIGP (up to 55%), while UIGP
yields are relatively unaffected. Third, developing new cultivars with growth pattern in changed climate scenarios similar
to that of current varieties in present conditions could be an advantageous adaptation strategy for minimizing the vulnerability
of maize production in India. 相似文献
16.
Toward an integrated analysis of mitigation and adaptation: some preliminary findings 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Thomas J. Wilbanks Paul Leiby Robert Perlack J. Timothy Ensminger Sherry B. Wright 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(5):713-725
Between 1999 and 2003, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) made a preliminary effort to integrate an analysis of mitigation
and adaptation to climate change impact vulnerabilities in two ways: top-down and bottom-up. This paper briefly describes
these early experiments and summarizes their findings, both about climate change vulnerability reduction and about the challenges
of integrated analysis, expanding upon results previously reported [Wilbanks et al. (Environment 45/5:28–38, 2003); ORNL (Integrated analysis of mitigation and adaptation as responses to concerns about impacts of global climate change,
ORNL Working paper 2003); ORNL and CUSAT 2003; Wilbanks 2005].
The U.S Government’s right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged 相似文献
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With growing evidence on how climate change impacts human health, public health agencies should develop adaptation programs
focused on the impacts predicted to affect their jurisdictions. However, recent research indicates that public health agencies
in the United States have done little to prepare the public for predicted climate change impacts, largely due in response
to a lack of resources and priority. This study surveyed Environmental Health (EH) Directors across the United States to determine
the extent to which individual level attitudes and beliefs influence the adoption of climate change adaptation programming
in a department. The results indicate that an EH Director’s perception of the health risk posed by climate change explained
27% of the variance in the number of climate change impacts being addressed. Furthermore, the study found that environmental
attitude and political views made strong, unique contributions in explaining the variance in risk perception. The results
provide evidence that individual-level attitudes and beliefs, as well as organizational-level barriers influence the adoption
of climate change adaptation programs in public health agencies. As a result, increasing EH Directors’ perception of risk
by highlighting the likelihood and severity of localized impacts may increase the adoption of adaptation programming despite
existing organizational barriers (e.g., lack of resources). Given the fact that risk perception has been shown to influence
behavior across cultures, these findings are also useful for understanding the influence of individual decision makers on
public health programming around the world. 相似文献
19.
Virginia Wittrock Suren N. Kulshreshtha Elaine Wheaton 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2011,16(3):267-290
Droughts can have severe negative effects on the environment, society and economy. The drought of 2001–2002 caused severe
strain on economic and social activities in western Canada, particularly on rural communities through changes in water resources.
This paper examines physical and social vulnerabilities and associated adaptation measures undertaken and the adaptive capacity
in communities in the South Saskatchewan River Basin, Canada. Although all of these communities were exposed to the 2001–2002
drought, they had different levels of impacts, resulting in different types of drought adaptation measures, some due to experience
with previous droughts and some in response to the 2001–2002 drought. Communities with unreliable water supply were the most
vulnerable to these droughts. This vulnerability resulted in historic adaptations being implemented (e.g., Hanna, Alberta)
and re-active adaptations (e.g., Cabri, Saskatchewan). It is important to examine the effectiveness of the current adaptive
strategies to cope with more extensive and extended drought situations. First Nation communities, such as the Kainai Blood
Indian Reserve, have many social and environmental issues but the impacts from the drought were minor. The Reserve had implemented
economic changes in the late 1980s to make it less vulnerable to drought but resulted in negative impacts to the Reserve’s
social health. It is imperative to determine how vulnerable First Nation communities are and will to improve future adaptive
capacity. This paper provides a snap shot view of how Canadian Prairie Communities have adapted to drought and how vulnerable
they are to future drought situations. 相似文献
20.
Ramiro Ahumada-Cervantes Gilberto Velázquez-Angulo Hugo B. Rodríguez-Gallegos Edith Flores-Tavizón Rubén Félix-Gastélum Jaime Romero-González Alfredo Granados-Olivas 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2017,22(1):137-152
To propose specific adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector based on vulnerability to climate variability and climate change at the local level, we built a vulnerability index using an indicator tool at a fine spatial scale. This index was applied as a case study in the municipality of Guasave, Sinaloa, Mexico, at the basic census area (BCA) level. We used a total of 37 variables organized into three groups with equal weighting: exposure (13), sensitivity (13), and adaptive capacity (11). From the 20 rural BCAs located in the study area, eight were categorized as having very low vulnerability; five had low vulnerability; two had medium vulnerability because of the lack of basic services (sewers, water, and electricity) and a high rural population density; three had high vulnerability due to a high frequency of days with temperatures below 5 °C and the lack of basic services; and two had very high vulnerability, characterized by a high percentage of production units (PUs) with losses due to climate factors, a high rural population density, and a high frequency of days with temperatures below 5 °C. Approximately 50 % of the municipal rural population lives in BCAs vulnerable to climate change. This methodology allowed us to identify the most susceptible agricultural areas at the local level and the variables that require more attention so that we can propose adaptation strategies and minimize vulnerability due to climate change. 相似文献