Assessment of regional climate change impacts on Hungarian landscapes

The assessment of regional climate change impacts combined with the sensitivity of landscape functions by predictive modelling of hazardous landscape processes is a new fundamental field of research. In particular, this study investigates the effects of changing weather extremes on meso-regional-scale landscape vulnerability. Climatic-exposure parameter analysis was performed on a predicted climate change scenario. The exposure to climate change was analysed on the basis of the original data of the meso-scale IPCC A1B climate scenario from the REMO and ALADIN regional models for the periods of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100, and the regional types of climate change impacts were calculated by using cluster analysis. Selected climate exposure parameters of the REMO and ALADIN models were analysed, in particular, for extreme events (days with precipitation greater than 30 mm, heat waves, dry periods, wet periods) and for daily temperature and precipitation. The landscape functions impacted by climate change are proxies for the main recent and future problematic processes in Hungary. Soil erosion caused by water, drought, soil erosion caused by wind, mass movement and flash floods were analysed for the time periods of 1961–1990, 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. Based on the sensitivity thresholds for the impact assessments, the landscape functional sensitivity indicators were interpreted, and an integrative summary of the five indicators was made, differentiating the regions facing only a few or multiple sensitivities. In Central Hungary, the increasing exposure and sensitivity to droughts will be a serious problem when following the REMO scenario. In several regions, most indicators will change the sensitivity threshold from a tolerable risk to an increased or very high risk.     

Climate change/variability and food systems: evidence from the Afram Plains,Ghana

While there are many studies of the impacts of climate change and variability on food production, few studies are devoted to a comprehensive assessment of impacts on food systems. Results of a survey of food systems and household adaptation strategies in three communities in the Afram Plains, Ghana, reveal how extreme climatic events affect rural food production, transportation, processing and storage. Adaptation strategies implemented by the three communities during past droughts serve as a foundation for planning responses to future climate change. Results of this study suggest that food security in this region—where droughts and floods are expected to become more severe due to climate change—could be enhanced by increasing farm-based storage facilities; improving the transportation system, especially feeder roads that link food production areas and major markets; providing farmers with early warning systems; extending credit to farmers; and the use of supplementary irrigation. This study also indicates that some cultural practices, particularly those that prohibit the consumption of certain foods, may reduce the resilience of some individuals and ethnic groups to food system disruptions. Understanding the local context and the responses of households is critical to the development of effective strategies for reducing the potential adverse impacts of climatic change on food security in rural Ghana.     

Geo-based model of intrinsic resilience to climate change: an approach to nature-based solution

A substantial amount of researches have been done on the understanding and assessment of resilience from multiple perspectives, e.g., ecological, social, economic, and disaster management; however, recent international approach is trending toward more systematic and comprehensive risk assessment processes. Pivotal element of such approach is to emphasizing on promoting resilience in the face of climate change impacts. Conceptualization and identification of parameters to assess climate change resilience is one of the remaining challenges that academia is facing. Reviewing the principles of the climate change resilience highlighted in the literature, the goal of this study is to introduce a theoretical model about the climate change resilience concept to facilitate and enhance future climate change resilience-related researches. The model proposed in this study is named as the climate change resilience of place (C-CROP) model, a geo-based model which is designed to assess climate change resilience for any geographic region with an approach to the incorporation of nature-based solution (NBS). C-CROP model considers vulnerability, exposure, sensitivity to climate change on one side; another side is co-benefit, climate proofing, and disservices of proposed NBS. An operational framework of the C-CROP model is also proposed, that allows spatially explicit assessment of climate change resilience in real world by developing an indicator-based framework and comprehensive mapping using the geospatial approach. Therefore, this model includes vulnerability hotspots identification; better understanding of the pathways of resilience; and solutions (i.e., NBS) to infer the impacts and effectiveness of resilience-building interventions.

     

Synthesis of ecosystem vulnerability to climate change in the Netherlands shows the need to consider environmental fluctuations in adaptation measures

Climate change impacts on individual species are various and range from shifts in phenology and functional properties to changes in productivity and dispersal. The combination of impacts determines future biodiversity and species composition, but is difficult to evaluate with a single method. Instead, a comparison of mutually independent approaches provides information and confidence in patterns observed beyond what may be achieved in individual approaches. Here, we carried out such comparison to assess which ecosystem types in the Netherlands appear most vulnerable to climate change impacts, as arising from changes in hydrology, nutrient conditions and dispersal limitations. We thus combined meta-analyses of species range shifts with species distribution modelling and ecohydrological modelling with expert knowledge in two respective impact studies. Both impact studies showed that nutrient-poor ecosystems and ecosystem types with fluctuating water tables—like hay meadows, moist heathlands and moorlands—seem to be most at risk upon climate change. A subsequent meta-analysis of species–environmental stress relations indicated that particularly endangered species are adversely affected by the combination of drought and oxygen stress, caused by fluctuating moisture conditions. This implies that adaptation measures should not only aim to optimise mean environmental conditions but should also buffer environmental extremes. Major uncertainties in the assessment included the quantitative impacts of vegetation-hydrology feedbacks, vegetation adaptation and interactions between dispersal capacity and traits linked to environmental selection. Once such quantifications become feasible, adaptation measures may be tailor-made and optimised to conserve vulnerable ecosystem types.     

Climate change, drought risk and land capability for agriculture: implications for land use in Scotland

Land capability classification systems define and communicate biophysical limitations on land use, including climate, soils and topography. They can therefore provide an accessible format for both scientists and decision-makers to share knowledge on climate change impacts and adaptation. Underlying such classifications are complex interactions that require dynamic spatial analysis, particularly between soil and climate. These relationships are investigated using a case study on drought risk for agriculture in Scotland, which is currently considered less significant than wetness-related issues. The impact of drought risk is assessed using an established empirical system for land capability linking indicator crops with water availability. This procedure is facilitated by spatial interpolation of climate and soil profile data to provide soil moisture deficits and plant available water on a regular 1-km grid. To evaluate potential impacts of future climate change, land capability classes are estimated using both large-scale ensemble (multi-simulation) data from the HadRM3 regional climate model and local-scale weather generator data (UKCP09) derived from multiple climate models. Results for the case study suggest that drought risk is likely to have a much more significant influence on land use in the future. This could potentially act to restrict the range of crops grown and hence reduce land capability in some areas unless strategic-level adaptation measures are developed that also integrate land use systems and water resources with the wider environment.     

Fishers’ perceptions of climate change,impacts on their livelihoods and adaptation strategies in environmental change hotspots: a case of Lake Wamala,Uganda

Fisheries resources support livelihoods of fishing communities but are threatened by over-exploitation, habitat degradation, pollution, invasive species and climate change. Unlike the other threats, climate change has received limited consideration and reducing its risks requires appropriate adaptation strategies. This study used quantitative and qualitative methods to generate knowledge on fishers’ perceptions of climate change, changes in climate variables and their impacts on livelihoods, adaptation strategies, constraints to adaptation and required interventions to promote adaptation strategies that would enable fishers to build resilience to sustain their livelihoods. We found that fishers were aware of changes in climate conditions manifested by unpredictable seasons, floods and droughts. Fishing remained the main livelihood activity. However, the dominance of fishes had changed from Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus L.) to the African catfish (Clarias gariepinus Burchell). Floods and droughts were associated with damage to gears, boats, landing sites and changes in fish catches and sizes, income from fishing and fish consumption. The fishers adapted by increasing time on fishing grounds and changing target species and fishing gear among other things. Some innovative fishers diversified to high-value crops and livestock. This increased their income beyond what was solely earned from fishing which provided an incentive for some of them to quit fishing. Livelihood diversification was enhanced by use of communications technology, membership of social groups, increasing fishing days and fishing experience. Adaptation was, however, constrained by limited credit, awareness and access to land, which require interventions such as improving access to credit, irrigation facilities, appropriate planting materials and awareness raising. We identified adaptation strategies, which if promoted and their constraints addressed, could increase resilience of fishers to the influence of climate change and sustain their livelihoods.     

洞庭湖近年干旱与三峡蓄水影响分析

季节性水文干旱是洞庭湖近年突出的水情问题,并因三峡影响而倍受关注。基于洞庭湖水文干旱的关注焦点（湿地生态影响）及其与湖泊水情的对应关系,建立了湖泊滩地出露与持续时间为依据的干旱度量指标;并利用水文分析方法,揭示了洞庭湖水文干旱发生的时空特点和水情机制;最后,基于BP神经网络模型获取的三峡水库蓄水对洞庭湖的水位影响量化了三峡水库秋季蓄水对湖区干旱的贡献分量。结果认为：（1）2000年后,洞庭湖的干旱频次明显增多、旱情加重,干旱程度以西洞庭最剧,东洞庭次之,南洞庭最轻;（2）洞庭湖不同湖区干旱成因存在一定差异,其中全湖的春旱基本由洞庭湖流域来水偏少引起,而东洞庭湖秋旱主要由长江来水减少引起,西、南洞庭湖秋旱则由长江和洞庭湖流域来水共同减少形成;（3）三峡水库蓄水对东洞庭湖秋旱起到一定的加重作用,但并非洞庭湖近年干旱的主要因素     

利用植被状态指数距平监测2011年长江中下游5省春、夏干旱

针对2011年长江中下游湖北、湖南、江西、安徽、江苏5省春、夏旱的发展过程和空间演变态势，利用2011年4~8月中分辨率MODIS每16 d合成产品MOD13A2-NDVI数据，构建植被状态指数距平（AVCI）进行干旱监测及分级。结果表明:AVCI指数能监测出长江中下游5省春、夏季干旱的发展变化，在整个监测期内，长江中下游湖北、湖南、江西、安徽、江苏5省大部分地区AVCI值偏低，出现大范围干旱持续的现象，并且表现出明显的旱情加重-旱情减轻-旱情再加重的变化趋势。前期春季干旱主要分布在湖北中东部、安徽中南部、江苏南部、湖南东北部、江西北部地区，后期伏旱则在5省大范围发展。春旱干旱程度比伏旱更甚，其中春季旱情在平原地区更为严重     

The impact of climate change and its uncertainty on carbon storage in Switzerland

Projected future climate change will alter carbon storage in forests, which is of pivotal importance for the national carbon balance of most countries. Yet, national-scale assessments are largely lacking. We evaluated climate impacts on vegetation and soil carbon storage for Swiss forests using a dynamic vegetation model. We considered three novel climate scenarios, each featuring a quantification of the inherent uncertainty of the underlying climate models. We evaluated which regions of Switzerland would benefit or lose in terms of carbon storage under different climates, and which abiotic factors determine these patterns. The simulation results showed that the prospective carbon storage ability of forests depends on the current climate, the severity of the change, and the time required for new species to establish. Regions already prone to drought and heat waves under current climate will likely experience a decrease in carbon stocks under prospective ‘extreme’ climate change, while carbon storage in forests close to the upper treeline will increase markedly. Interestingly, when climate change is severe, species shifts can result in increases in carbon stocks, but when there is only slight climate change, climate conditions may reduce growth of extant species while not allowing for species shifts, thus leading to decreases in carbon stocks.     

Building blocks of economic resilience to climate change: a south east Australian fisheries example

Climate change will impact on ecological, social, and economic elements of fisheries; however, the three are seldom considered in an integrated fashion. We develop a fishery-level assessment of economic resilience to climate change for the Tasmanian rock lobster fishery, a linked social–ecological system. We outline the main climate change forcing influences that link climate change to the fishery via changes in lobster abundance, distribution, and phenology. Using a bottom-up approach, we identify twelve economic attributes strongly related to the fisheries’ economic resilience to climate change. Resilience attributes are grouped according to the level of the economic domain (business, sectoral, and governance). Attributes are then evaluated to determine the overall economic resilience of the rock lobster fishery in the context of the specific nature of predicted climate change effects. We identify areas of low resilience in the economic sub-system for this fishery. Evaluating the economic resilience of regional fisheries using this integrated, interdisciplinary framework provides a practical, parsimonious, and conceptually sound basis for undertaking comprehensive and contextually tailored assessments of climate change impacts and economic vulnerability. The framework can be extended to include a broader range of climate change impacts and the social domain of the human sub-system.     

An economic assessment of drought effects on three grassland systems in Switzerland

This paper analyzes the economic impacts of summer drought on Swiss grassland production. We combine field trial data from drought experiments in three different grasslands in Switzerland with site-specific information on economic costs and benefits. The analysis focuses on the economic implications of drought effects on grassland yields as well as grassland composition. In agreement with earlier studies, we found rather heterogeneous yield effects of drought on Swiss grassland systems, with significantly reduced yields as a response to drought at the lowland and sub-alpine sites, but increased yields at the wetter pre-alpine site. Relative yield losses were highest at the sub-alpine site (with annual yield losses of up to 37 %). However, because income from grassland production at extensive sites relies to a large extent on ecological direct payments, even large yield losses had only limited implications in terms of relative profit reductions. In contrast, negative drought impacts at the most productive, intensively managed lowland site were dominant, with average annual drought-induced profit margin reductions of about 28 %. This is furthermore emphasized if analyzing the farm level perspective of drought impacts. Combining site-specific effects at the farm level, we found that in particular farms with high shares of lowland grassland sites suffer from summer droughts in terms of farm-level fodder production and profit margins. Moreover, our results showed that the higher competitiveness of weeds (broad-leaved dock) under drought conditions will require increasing attention on weed control measures in future grassland production systems. Taking into account that the risk of drought occurrence is expected to increase in the coming years, additional instruments to cope with drought risks in fodder production and finally farmers’ income have to be developed.     

An ecohydrological adaptive approach to a salt lake in the semiarid grasslands of Argentina: future management perspectives

Past extreme hydrological events, future climate change scenarios and approaches for lake management were studied in the Argentinean Pampa. Anthropogenic climate change will impact water bodies and create enormous challenges for water management. Adaptation strategies are needed urgently to deal with the uncertainties originated by climate change on inland or coastal basins. Only a few studies have addressed practical strategies to mitigate global change impacts on lakes and practically none in South America. The purpose of this work was to discuss management options and seek better adaptive alternatives for the nature reserve Lake Chasicó, and to propose future management experiments and actions at a regional level. The ecohydrological approach is likely to increase the ecological resilience of the lake, dampen climate-driven hydrological variations and reduce eutrophication problems. Future projects should include wetland creation, fish management, water quality control, engineering work studies and education programs. Ecohydrology as an integrative natural science should be considered as a water management strategy to build ecological resilience into water bodies. The building of social-ecological resilience is also crucial for the stability of coupled human-ecological systems. The integration of natural and social sciences into sustainability approaches represents a robust strategy for adapting to climate change.     

金沙江虎跳峡-旭龙河段水电建设景观多样性影响评价

金沙江中游水电建设因其对流域生物多样性的影响受到社会各界广泛关注。应用景观生态学方法，选择淹没区面积、斑块数、景观多样性、均匀性、聚集度、蔓延度、形状指数、分维数等指数，构建了由10个一级指标、14个二级指标组成的景观多样性影响评价指标体系，对金沙江“虎跳峡 旭龙河”段适宜水电建设的龙盘、塔城和其宗3个坝址、5套建设方案淹没区景观层次生物多样性的影响进行了比较研究。结果显示，江段往下游方向，景观多样性、均匀性、连通性逐渐降低、破碎化程度加剧；各方案对陆地生物多样性保护价值的影响：其宗下坝＞其宗上坝＞塔城坝＞龙盘高坝＞龙盘低坝。研究结果为深入评价金沙江中游水利水电开发的生物多样性影响提供了借鉴和基础。〖     

清代1644~1911年期间珠江流域旱涝灾害时空特征分析

通过收集和整理1644~1911年珠江流域旱涝灾害历史文献资料，利用受灾县次划分旱涝等级法重建268a来的旱涝等级序列。并运用滑动平均、累积距平、EEMD、IDW等方法分析旱涝序列的时空特征。结果表明：清代1644～1911年珠江流域旱涝灾害频发，且涝灾的频次略多于旱灾，可以将1644～1911年珠江流域旱涝灾害划分为3个偏旱期和2个偏涝期，旱涝变化存在年际（准2 a、准5 a）、年代际（准10 a、准24 a和准54 a）和准世纪际（准134 a）上的3类变化周期。清代珠江流域旱涝灾害的受灾县次比在空间上存在明显的差异性，总体上洪涝灾害多于干旱灾害。珠江流域各府（州）的干旱灾害空间分布不均匀，整体上由东向西递减，洪涝灾害的频次空间分布上具有区域相连性，主要集中广东、江西两省以及云南省中部地区。     

鄱阳湖湿地现状问题与未来趋势

近年来鄱阳湖秋冬季水文呈干枯态势,湿地生态系统及其关键因子也发生了变化。如何合理保护和利用鄱阳湖湿地引起各方关注。系统综述了鄱阳湖湿地生态系统在水文、江湖关系、水质、水鸟栖息地、渔业资源等方面存在的问题,梳理了引起这些问题的外部和内部因素。针对"一切照常"和"水位调控"两种情景,预测了湿地未来的变化趋势,并指出了当前研究中的不确定性问题。研究认为:鄱阳湖秋冬季的低枯水位,对水质、湿地植被、水鸟栖息地以及鱼类食物资源和"三场"(即:产卵场、洄游通道、索饵场)产生了一定不利影响。建议通过模型模拟和情景预测来分析不同调控方案的影响效果,优化调控方案、将生态系统的负面影响降到最低。     

Drought frequency in the Volta Basin of West Africa

According to various reports, climate change is responsible for the change in rainfall amount and pattern accompanied by the various degrees of extreme events in Sahelian West Africa in recent years. Other reports also suggest that there has been a “recovery” of the rainy season (Nicholson 2005). In this study, temporal characteristics of meteorological droughts in the Volta basin, a semi-arid region in West Africa, are investigated in order to provide a guide for sustainable water resource management. For this purpose, drought intensity, areal extent and recurrence frequency is analysed using the standardised precipitation index (SPI) for a time series between 1961 and 2005 from 52 meteorology stations across the Volta basin. Using this analysis the severity of the historical droughts of 1961, 1970, 1983, 1992 and 2001 that occurred in the region are assessed and their intensity, areal extent and return periods are obtained. The drought intensity is lower than −2.0 over nearly 75% of the region, meaning that a major part of the region was under extreme drought conditions during this year. The drought of 1983/1984 has a probability of occurrence of up to 0.1 from records spanning 44 years. The areal extent of extreme drought conditions is about 90% during this drought period.     

‘Subjective resilience’: using perceptions to quantify household resilience to climate extremes and disasters

How should we measure a household’s resilience to climate extremes, climate change or other evolving threats? As resilience gathers momentum on the international stage, interest in this question continues to grow. So far, efforts to measure resilience have largely focused on the use of ‘objective’ frameworks and methods of indicator selection. These typically depend on a range of observable socio-economic variables, such as levels of income, the extent of a household’s social capital or its access to social safety nets. Yet while objective methods have their uses, they suffer from well-documented weaknesses. This paper advocates for the use of an alternative but complementary method: the measurement of ‘subjective’ resilience at the household level. The concept of subjective resilience stems from the premise that people have an understanding of the factors that contribute to their ability to anticipate, buffer and adapt to disturbance and change. Subjective household resilience therefore relates to an individual’s cognitive and affective self-evaluation of their household’s capabilities and capacities in responding to risk. We discuss the advantages and limitations of measuring subjective household resilience and highlight its relationships with other concepts such as perceived adaptive capacity, subjective well-being and psychological resilience. We then put forward different options for the design and delivery of survey questions on subjective household resilience. While the approach we describe is focused at the household level, we show how it has the potential to be aggregated to inform sub-national or national resilience metrics and indicators. Lastly, we highlight how subjective methods of resilience assessment could be used to improve policy and decision-making. Above all, we argue that, alongside traditional objective measures and indicators, efforts to measure resilience should take into account subjective aspects of household resilience in order to ensure a more holistic understanding of resilience to climate extremes and disasters.     

Climate change impacts on vegetation and water cycle in the Euro-Mediterranean region,studied by a likelihood approach

Scientific community and policy-makers share the common interest in identifying and evaluating potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems, relying mainly on probabilistic methods of exploring the risks. In this perspective, the concept of ensemble forecasting makes possible to handle uncertainties associated with climate risk analysis by focusing on a range of potential or probable impact scenarios rather than actualizing a single case. In this paper, an ensemble of simulations based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) model was used to investigate the uncertainty upon predictions of the future Euro-Mediterranean vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics, and water budget. Twenty simulations from past to future were based on the combination of different climate inputs, vegetation model parameterizations, and configurations. The evaluation of results combined the separate deterministic future projections from the LPJ model into a single probabilistic projection, associating a likelihood degree in accordance with the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change terminology. Results projected a general critical situation in terms of water availability, made more serious if considering that also the occurrence of extreme-related events, e.g., fires, is expected to become more frequent as favored by more recurrent drought episodes. Although more uncomfortable climate conditions were projected for vegetation, net primary production (NPP) was predicted to increase due to the potential enrichment of CO₂ in atmosphere and its fertilization effects on vegetation. The combination of rising NPP and fire frequency may shape the carbon cycle components, as the carbon losses by fire also were projected to increase.     

A critical review of impact of and adaptation to climate change in developed and developing economies

Rapid change in climate is set to alter the delicate balance that exists between man and nature. It is more so for the region which are ecologically fragile. The literature to this effect points out that the poorest countries and communities are likely to suffer the most because of their geographic locations, low income and low institutional capacity, as well as their greater reliance on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture. Even if climate mitigations plans are implemented properly there will be some degree of warming due to inertia of emissions already released. As such, there is a strong consensus about the need of adaptation to changing climatic conditions. Adaptation is believed to enhance the resilience against increasing climate variability. In this backdrop, the objective of the present paper is, therefore, to systematically and critically review the existing literature on the impacts of climate change and choice of adaptations across countries and draw insights for suggesting a comprehensive policy framework particularly for developing countries in this regard. The paper finds that the role of government and civil society is crucial for enabling efficient adaptation methods. Development policies and programs having synergy effect with climate change initiatives help adapt with the changing climate better. However, the availability of clean technology in developing countries will play the decisive role in controlling their growth rate of emission. This will be made feasible only when there is a better understanding of the problem between the developed and developing world about the eminent danger arising out of climate change.