Dynamic material flow analysis of zinc resources in China

Zinc is one of the most widely applied nonferrous metals in China. Study on the applications and recurrent situation of zinc resources is of great strategic importance for the sustainable development of China's economy. In this paper, a dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) method has been adopted to analyze quantificationally zinc resources in China, as well as to analyze and predict the quantity of zinc product scrap and their recycling situation. The weighted average method was applied to calculate average lifetimes of six major zinc products in China. The average lifetimes of battery, zinc oxide, zinc die-casting alloys, zinc material products, galvanized zinc and brass are 0.17, 5.3, 11.1, 12, 21 and 30 years, respectively. Assuming the lifetime of zinc product group obeys the Weibull distribution and the consumption of zinc products varies linearly with time, the future consumption and scrap generation of zinc products will increase continuously. It is expected that they would increase from 49% to 76% during 2004–2020, respectively. Assuming the recycling rate remains unchanged with time, the zinc old scrap index, both the theoretical and actual values, would continue increasing in China. The values are expected to reach 0.402 and 0.076 by 2020, respectively. Therefore, the regeneration resource of depreciated zinc is actually insufficient in China. According to the scenario analysis, the actual value of old scrap indexes is positively correlated with the recycling rate of zinc products. Because galvanized products are the largest consumption area of zinc products in China, the influence of their recycling rate on old scrap index is obviously larger than other zinc products. Through the analysis, this paper suggests that the increase of the recycling rate of zinc products could not only improve to a certain degree China's relative shortage of zinc resources, but greatly relive the supply pressure of zinc in the world.     

Environmental consequences of recycling aluminum old scrap in a global market

Nowadays, aluminum scrap is traded globally. This has increased the need to analyze the flows of aluminum scrap, as well as to determine the environmental consequences from aluminum recycling. The objective of this work is to determine the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions of the old scrap collected and sorted for recycling, considering the market interactions. The study focused on Spain as a representative country for Europe. We integrate material flow analysis (MFA) with consequential life cycle assessment (CLCA) in order to determine the most likely destination for the old scrap and the most likely corresponding process affected. Based on this analysis, it is possible to project some scenarios and to quantify the GHG emissions (generated and avoided) associated with old scrap recycling within a global market. From the MFA results, we projected that the Spanish demand for aluminum products will be met mainly with an increase in primary aluminum imports, and the excess of old scrap not used in Spain will be exported in future years, mainly to Asia. Depending on the scenario and on the marginal source of primary aluminum considered, the GHG emission estimates varied between −18,140 kg of CO₂ eq. t⁻¹ and −8427 of CO₂ eq. t⁻¹ of old scrap collected. More GHG emissions are avoided with an increase in export flows, but the export of old scrap should be considered as the loss of a key resource, and in the long term, it will also affect the semifinished products industry. Mapping the flows of raw materials and waste, as well as quantifying the GHG impacts derived from recycling, has become an essential prerequisite to consistent development from a linear toward a circular economy (CE).     

Assessing the potential of yield improvements, through process scrap reduction, for energy and CO2 abatement in the steel and aluminium sectors

Targets to cut 2050 CO₂ emissions in the steel and aluminium sectors by 50%, whilst demand is expected to double, cannot be met by energy efficiency measures alone, so options that reduce total demand for liquid metal production must also be considered. Such reductions could occur through reduced demand for final goods (for instance by life extension), reduced demand for material use in each product (for instance by lightweight design) or reduced demand for material to make existing products. The last option, improving the yield of manufacturing processes from liquid metal to final product, is attractive in being invisible to the final customer, but has had little attention to date. Accordingly this paper aims to provide an estimate of the potential to make existing products with less liquid metal production.Yield ratios have been measured for five case study products, through a series of detailed factory visits, along each supply chain. The results of these studies, presented on graphs of cumulative energy against yield, demonstrate how the embodied energy in final products may be up to 15 times greater than the energy required to make liquid metal, due to yield losses. A top-down evaluation of the global flows of steel and aluminium showed that 26% of liquid steel and 41% of liquid aluminium produced does not make it into final products, but is diverted as process scrap and recycled. Reducing scrap substitutes production by recycling and could reduce total energy use by 17% and 6% and total CO₂ emissions by 16% and 7% for the steel and aluminium industries respectively, using forming and fabrication energy values from the case studies. The abatement potential of process scrap elimination is similar in magnitude to worldwide implementation of best available standards of energy efficiency and demonstrates how decreasing the recycled content may sometimes result in emission reductions.Evidence from the case studies suggests that whilst most companies are aware of their own yield ratios, few, if any, are fully aware of cumulative losses along their whole supply chain. Addressing yield losses requires this awareness to motivate collaborative approaches to improvement.     

Historical evolution of anthropogenic aluminum stocks and flows in Italy

Dynamic stocks and flows analysis was applied to the anthropogenic aluminum cycle in Italy in order to detect and quantify metal flows and in-use stocks over the years 1947–2009. The model utilized a top-down approach, including data for production, consumption, loss, and trade flows of aluminum. Seven end-use markets were considered, namely buildings and construction, transportation, consumer durables, machinery and equipment, electrical engineering, containers and packaging, and miscellaneous appliance types. The results of this dynamic stocks and flows analysis model quantified the contemporary anthropogenic reservoirs (or in-use stocks) of aluminum at about 320 kg per capita, mainly embedded within the transportation and building and construction sectors. Cumulative in-use stock represents approximately 11 years of supply at current usage rates (about 20 Mt versus 1.7 Mt/year), implying significant potential for recycling in the future as this stock comes out of use. Flow analysis revealed that Italy imports mainly unwrought aluminum and exports final products, while the main material losses occur during alumina refining and collection of old scrap: specifically, containers and packaging have the highest old scrap generation rate, but for the lowest recovery rate (50%). Increasing support to collection of scrap and initiatives oriented to aluminum recovery specifically would allow Italy to increase its reliance on domestic material, and may also allow a decline of the country import-dependence on primary sources. The dynamic stocks and flows model created here provides a quantitative historical record of the aluminum required by Italian society during important periods of development and provides guidance for future decision-making around the use of domestic secondary resources.     

Tracking effective measures for closed-loop recycling of automobile steel in China

Closed-loop recycling of steel in automobiles is particularly difficult because of the low tolerance for impurities and the use of composites of various types of steel products. Technologies that reduce impurities or increase impurity tolerance must be developed and introduced to the steel recycling system at the appropriate time. This study evaluated the feasibility of closed-loop recycling in the automobile industry in China. Material pinch analysis combined with dynamic modeling of the life cycle of steel sheets used in the manufacture of automobiles was employed to estimate the amount of steel sheet scrap available for closed-loop recycling and the amount of copper contamination in the scrap. The results indicate that by 2050, more than half of the old steel sheet scrap generated annually will have to be down-cycled because of its high copper contamination. However, scenario analyses of three types of technologies for mitigating the problem of copper contamination showed the potential for increasing the amount of old scrap used in closed-loop recycling. In particular, improving copper tolerance in the steel production process could be effective both now and in 2050.     

Quantification of Chinese steel cycle flow: Historical status and future options

China is the largest steel producer and consumer around the world. Quantifying the Chinese steel flow from cradle to grave can assist this industry to fully understand its historical status and future options on production route transformation, capacity planning, scrap availability, resource and energy consumption. With the help of the systematic methods combined dynamic MFA (material flow analysis) with scenario analysis, the Chinese steel cycle during the first half of the 21st century was quantified and several thought-provoking conclusions were draw. In the past decade, lots of pig iron or molten iron was fed into EAF (electric arc furnace) and the scrap usage of EAF fluctuated slightly. Thus, the real scrap-EAF route share is much lower than the EAF production share. On the other hand, we reconfirmed that the scrap supply in China will rise significantly in the future. Meanwhile, the secondary production route share will grow sharply and exceed primary production share before or after 2050 depending on our options. The scrap recycling rate and construction's lifetime play a vital role in this trend. In the end, an intensive discussion on production capacities’ adjustment and energy and resource consumption was conducted and relative policy suggestions were given. It is worth noting that scrap usage is crucial to future energy saving and emissions reduction of Chinese steel sector and its energy consumption might peak as early as 2015.     

Material flow analysis of paper in Korea. Part I. Data calculation model from the flow relationships between paper products

The flows of paper are analyzed throughout the papermaking processes, with the year 2007 and Korea defined as the system boundaries. In practice, the statistical data on the production, import and export of paper or pulp can be collected with relative ease from the government and industrial associations. However, the input data regarding the volumes of pulp and wastepaper used in different paper products, such as newsprint, printing papers, sanitary and household papers, specialty papers, and corrugating board base, are difficult to obtain because such information is generally kept confidential in the course of corporate operations.The production processes of paper products in Korea are modeled using information on raw materials, their compositions and production yields of products in order to identify and quantify the amounts of pulp and wastepaper used in each paper product. The material flows of paper are then analyzed based on the calculation model derived from the correlation of input and output flows between the individual processes throughout the entire paper lifecycle. Accuracy analysis using both mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percent error (MAPE) is conducted to verify the amounts of pulp and wastepaper calculated from the proposed model against the volumes of domestically consumed pulp and wastepaper provided in the national statistics. Although the calculated values for the past (i.e., the 1980s and 1990s) differ to some degree from the statistical values, the data for the 2000s have a relatively higher level of accuracy, with the MAPE of the total pulp and recycling volume at 5.39% and 5.30%, respectively, thus validating the adequacy of the proposed modeling method. The proposed calculation model can be effectively used in the material flow analysis (MFA) of paper to reduce the burden of data collection and obtain relatively accurate results.     

Challenges and political solutions for steel recycling in China

The circular economy is an essential component of China's sustainable development. To promote the recycling of end-of-life products, the government has adopted various policies. Steel scrap is an important resource for steelmaking. Yet, the Chinese iron and steel industry uses less scrap to produce new steel compared to other large steelmaking countries. This article examines the reasons, why steel recycling is still relatively weak in China and what measures the government takes to improve the situation. We found that limited availability of scrap, high scrap prices, inadequate steelmaking capacities, industry fragmentation and unclear responsibilities for manufacturers are the main obstacles for steel recycling in China. The government is trying to improve steel recycling through tax incentives, import facilitation, support for supply, industry reorganization, and recycling parks, but with modest results.     

In-depth analysis of aluminum flows in Austria as a basis to increase resource efficiency

Based on the method of material flow analysis (MFA), a static model of Austrian aluminum (Al) flows in 2010 was developed. Extensive data research on Al production, consumption, trade and waste management was conducted and resulted in a detailed model of national Al resources. Data uncertainty was considered in the model based on the application of a rigorous concept for data quality assessment. The model results indicated that the growth of the Austrian “in-use” Al stock amounts to 11 ± 3.1 kg yr⁻¹ cap⁻¹. The total “in-use” Al stock was determined using a bottom-up approach, which produced an estimate of 260 kg Al cap⁻¹. Approximately 7 ± 1 kg of Al yr⁻¹ cap⁻¹ of old scrap was generated in 2010, of which 20% was not recovered because of losses in waste management processes. Quantitatively, approximately 40% of the total scrap input to secondary Al production originated from net imports, highlighting the import dependency of Austrian Al refiners and remelters. Uncertainties in the calculation of recycling indicators for the Austrian Al system with high shares of foreign scrap trade were exemplarily illustrated for the old scrap ratio (OSR) in secondary Al production, resulting in a possible range of OSRs between 0 and 66%. Overall, the detailed MFA in this study provides a basis to identify resource potentials as well as resource losses in the national Al system, and it will serve as a starting point for a dynamic Al model to be developed in the future.     

Substance flow analysis of cadmium in Korea

Substance flow analysis (SFA) of cadmium in Korea was carried out to analyze and predict cadmium flows, stocks, and future flows using both static and dynamic models. Cadmium is widely used in industry due to its strong corrosion and chemical resistance at high temperature, excellent electrical conduction, and low melting-point. Cadmium is produced as a by-product from the production processes for zinc and lead ingots. It is used for Ni–Cd batteries, polyvinylchloride (PVC) stabilizers, alloy products, pigments, and others.This examines the current cadmium flows and stocks using static SFA, and aims in predicting the future cadmium flows and stocks in Korea using dynamic SFA. From the static model, 2820 tonnes of cadmium ingots were produced, 0.04 tonnes imported and 2740 tons exported in Korea in 2009. In addition, 81 tonnes of cadmium were used in the manufacture of cadmium products: 80 tonnes for cadmium alloy products and 1 tonne for others. Finally, 175 tonnes of cadmium were imported into Korea for Ni–Cd batteries, 140 tonnes for PVC stabilizers, and 55 tonnes for pigments. Cadmium was used in various industries such as construction (221 tonnes), electrics and electronics (130 tonnes – including cadmium in imported products), transportation (30 tonnes) and others (30 tonnes). In 2009, 430 tonnes of industrial cadmium were discharged, with 10 tonnes being recycled and 420 tonnes discarded.From the dynamic model, cadmium stocks in Korea were estimated to be about 5120 tonnes in 2009. The industrial consumption in 2030 will be reduced to only 110 tonnes, only 27% of the current consumption of 410 tonnes in 2009, due to DIRECTIVE 2002/95/EC OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT of 27 January 2003 on the restriction of the use of certain hazardous substances in electrical and electronic equipment (RoHS). One possible solution to the Cd oversupply problem is use in cadmium telluride photovoltaic (CdTe PV) systems which have low life cycle Cd emissions (0.02 g Cd/GWh) and high end-of-life semiconductor recycling yields (95%).     

Copper recycling and scrap availability

According to existing estimates, available old copper scrap has more than tripled over the past 40 years. Secondary production (that is, copper produced from recycling old scrap), however, has only doubled. Indeed, over the past 10 years, while copper consumption and primary production have continued to expand briskly, while available old scrap has increased by over 35%, secondary production has actually stagnated.For a world concerned with sustainable development and the quality of the earth's environment, this performance is disappointing and in need of explanation. Other things being equal, one would expect the amount of recycling to increase with the availability of scrap, as many econometric models of the world copper market developed over the past several decades explicitly assume.The key to understanding sluggish growth in secondary production, this paper argues, is distinguishing carefully between (1) the flow of old scrap that arrives each year from products reaching the end of their useful lives during the year and (2) the available stock of old scrap that was not recycled during earlier years presumably because it was too costly to do so. Using an econometric model, the paper shows that old scrap stocks, which have contributed most of the increase in available old copper scrap over the years, have a very modest impact on secondary production. Old scrap flows have a much greater effect, but they account for only about 4% of the available old scrap for any given year.     

Industrial metabolism of PVC in China: A dynamic material flow analysis

In China, the rapid development of the polyvinylchloride (PVC) industry will inevitably lead to various environmental problems. This paper studies the PVC metabolism further by (1) constructing dynamic models based on material flow analysis (MFA), (2) introducing calculation on detailed lifetime distribution of different types of products and recycling, and (3) obtaining the performances of waste emissions and accumulation as a function of raw material input and time. Based on system evolution theory and population development models, the developing trend of the PVC industry is studied, and annual consumptions in future years are predicted. The annual emission and accumulation after metabolism can be calculated by tracking the amount of raw material input, existing form and process flow for a single year (2003), as well as over a longer period (from 1958 to 2048) in China. Analysis indicates that over 0.6 billion tons of PVC waste will have accumulated in the environment by the end of 2050. In this scenario analysis, the effects of product structure, lifetime distribution, mechanical recycling, chemical recycling and incineration on waste output are all taken into consideration. The product metabolism process can be decelerated by changing these factors appropriately. However, mechanical recycling and chemical recycling are the most effective solutions.     

Economic and policy instrument analyses in support of the scrap tire recycling program in Taiwan

Understanding the cost-effectiveness and the role of economic and policy instruments, such as the combined product tax-recycling subsidy scheme or a tradable permit, for scrap tire recycling has been of crucial importance in a market-oriented environmental management system. Promoting product (tire) stewardship on one hand and improving incentive-based recycling policy on the other hand requires a comprehensive analysis of the interfaces and interactions in the nexus of economic impacts, environmental management, environmental valuation, and cost-benefit analysis. This paper presents an assessment of the interfaces and interactions between the implementation of policy instruments and its associated economic evaluation for sustaining a scrap tire recycling program in Taiwan during the era of the strong economic growth of the late 1990s. It begins with an introduction of the management of the co-evolution between technology metrics of scrap tire recycling and organizational changes for meeting the managerial goals island-wide during the 1990s. The database collected and used for such analysis covers 17 major tire recycling firms and 10 major tire manufacturers at that time. With estimates of scrap tire generation and possible scale of subsidy with respect to differing tire recycling technologies applied, economic analysis eventually leads to identify the associated levels of product tax with respect to various sizes of new tires. It particularly demonstrates a broad perspective of how an integrated econometric and engineering economic analysis can be conducted to assist in implementing policy instruments for scrap tire management. Research findings indicate that different subsidy settings for collection, processing, and end use of scrap tires should be configured to ameliorate the overall managerial effectiveness. Removing the existing boundaries between designated service districts could strengthen the competitiveness of scrap tires recycling industry, helping to reduce the required levels of product tax and subsidy. With such initial breakthroughs at hand to handle the complexity of scrap tire recycling technologies, there remains unique management and policy avenues left to explore if a multi-dimensional solution is to be successful in the long run.     

The Austrian silver cycle: A material flow analysis

Silver (Ag) is a precious metal of increasing importance. Besides its classical use as a valuable, it is applied in an increasing number of industrial products due to its advantageous chemical properties. As silver is considered a non-renewable resource, it is becoming more and more relevant for individual countries to gain a better understanding of their domestic silver material flows. In our study, a material flow analysis (MFA) of silver in Austria for the period 2012 was carried out, the results of which reveal the major silver flows in the country as well as the imports and exports outside the country. As there is no extraction of silver ore in Austria, the country is depending on silver imports and recycling. Furthermore, the role of the silver coin production that is of considerable importance in Austria is highlighted. The results may help, on a policy level, to determine silver use indicators and support the development of strategies for resource, waste and environmental management of silver. On a modeling level, the results may function as an example for future silver MFA studies in different countries.     

Present status of the recycling of waste electrical and electronic equipment in Korea

In Korea due to rapid economical growth followed by urbanisation, breakage of large traditional families into small nuclear families, continuous changes in equipment features and capabilities causes tremendous increase in sale of new electrical and electronic equipment (EEE) and decrease in sale of used EEE. Subsequently, the ever-increasing quantity of waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) has become a serious social problem and threat to the environment. Therefore, the gradual increase in the generation of WEEE intensifies the interest for recycling to conserve the resources and protect the environment. In view of the above, a review has been made related to the present status of the recycling of waste electrical and electronic equipment in Korea. This paper describes the present status of generation and recycling of waste electrical and electronic equipment, namely TVs, refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners, personal computers and mobile phones in Korea. The commercial processes and the status of developing new technologies for the recycling of metallic values from waste printed circuit boards (PCBs) is also described briefly. Since 1998, three recycling centers are in full operation to recycle WEEE such as refrigerators, washing machines and air conditioners, having the total capacity of 880,000 units/year. All waste TVs are recently recycled on commission basis by several private recycling plants. The recycling of waste personal computers and mobile phones is insignificant in comparison with the amount of estimated obsolete those. Korea has adopted and enforced the extended producer responsibility (EPR) system. Korea is making consistent efforts to improve the recycling rate to the standards indicated in the EU directives for WEEE. Especially environmentally friendly and energy-saving technologies are being developed to recycle metal values from PCBs of WEEE.     

Steel consumption and economic growth in Korea: Long-term and short-term evidence

This paper examines the long-term and short-term causal relationships between steel consumption and economic activity in Korea between 1975 and 2008 using vector error correction and vector autoregression models. This study disaggregates steel products and steel-consuming industries because the consumption of a specific steel product is closely linked to the output of the corresponding industry. This approach can provide a clear and reliable causal relationship between variable pairs. The results show that total steel consumption and GDP have a long-term equilibrium relationship, running from GDP to total steel consumption. However, a long-term bi-directional causal relationship exists between flat products consumption and the manufacturing GDP. Flat products consumption also demonstrates the long-term relationships between steel-consuming industries, such as automobile, shipbuilding, and fabricated metal product, but causal directions are mixed, depending on variable pairs. These results imply that the reciprocal growth between these industries has contributed to the robust competitiveness of Korean manufacturing. Because Korea has maintained its export-oriented industrial policy based on manufacturing, the steel and steel-consuming industries are expected to play a significant role in economic growth far into the future.     

A GIS analysis of suitability for construction aggregate recycling sites using regional transportation network and population density features

Aggregate is used in road and building construction to provide bulk, strength, support, and wear resistance. Reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) and reclaimed Portland cement concrete (RPCC) are abundant and available sources of recycled aggregate. In this paper, current aggregate production operations in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia are used to develop spatial association models for the recycled aggregate industry with regional transportation network and population density features.The cost of construction aggregate to the end user is strongly influenced by the cost of transporting processed aggregate from the production site to the construction site. More than 60% of operations recycling aggregate in the mid-Atlantic study area are located within 4.8 km (3 miles) of an interstate highway. Transportation corridors provide both sites of likely road construction where aggregate is used and an efficient means to move both materials and on-site processing equipment back and forth from various work sites to the recycling operations.Urban and developing areas provide a high market demand for aggregate and a ready source of construction debris that may be processed into recycled aggregate. Most aggregate recycling operators in the study area are sited in counties with population densities exceeding 77 people/km² (200 people/mile²). No aggregate recycling operations are sited in counties with less than 19 people/km² (50 people/mile²), reflecting the lack of sufficient long-term sources of construction debris to be used as an aggregate source, as well as the lack of a sufficient market demand for aggregate in most rural areas to locate a recycling operation there or justify the required investment in the equipment to process and produce recycled aggregate.Weights of evidence analyses (WofE), measuring correlation on an area-normalized basis, and weighted logistic regression (WLR), are used to model the distribution of RAP and RPCC operations relative to transportation network and population distribution data. The models can be used on a regional scale to quickly map the relative site suitability for a RAP or RPCC aggregate recycling operation in a particular area based on transportation network and population parameters. The results can be used to identify general areas to be further evaluated on a site-specific basis using more detailed marketplace information. As transportation or population features change due to planning or actual development, the models can be easily revised to reflect these changes.     

Component level strategies for exploiting the lifespan of steel in products

Approximately 40% of annual demand for steel worldwide is used to replace products that have failed. With this percentage set to rise, extending the lifespan of steel in products presents a significant opportunity to reduce demand and thus decrease carbon dioxide emissions from steel production.This article presents a new, simplified framework with which to analyse product failure. When applied to the products that dominate steel use, this framework reveals that they are often replaced because a component/sub-assembly becomes degraded, inferior, unsuitable or worthless. In light of this, four products, which are representative of high steel content products in general, are analysed at the component level, determining steel mass and cost profiles over the lifespan of each product. The results show that the majority of the steel components are underexploited – still functioning when the product is discarded; in particular, the potential lifespan of the steel-rich structure is typically much greater than its actual lifespan. Twelve case studies, in which product or component life has been increased, are then presented. The resulting evidence is used to tailor life-extension strategies to each reason for product failure and to identify the economic motivations for implementing these strategies. The results suggest that a product template in which the long-lived structure accounts for a relatively high share of costs while short-lived components can be easily replaced (offering profit to the producer and enhanced utility to owners) encourages product life extension.     

Long-term global availability of steel scrap

Primary steelmaking involves CO₂-intensive processes, but the expansion of secondary steel production is limited by the global availability of steel scrap. The present work examines global scrap consumption in the past (1870–2012) and future scrap availability (2013–2050) based on the historical trend. The results reveal that (i) historically, the consumption of old scrap has been insufficient compared with the amounts of discarded steel, and (ii) based on historical scrap consumption, the future availability of scrap will not be sufficient to satisfy the two assumed cases of steel demand. Primary steelmaking is expected to remain the dominant process, at least up until 2050. Under the reference-demand case of 2.19 billion tons in crude steel production by 2050, the total production of pig iron and direct reduced iron could reach 1.35 billion tons. Consumption of old scrap could reach 0.76 billion tons. Because the availability of scrap will be limited in the context of the global total, it is important to research and develop innovative low-carbon technologies for primary steelmaking and to explore their economic viability if we are to aim for achieving large reductions in CO₂ emissions from the iron and steel industry.