PRELIMINARY STUDIES IN THE TERRESTRIAL DISPOSITION OF SILVER FROM CLOUD SEEDING1

ABSTRACT. Silver iodide is currently the most favored cloud seeding material in weather modification projects. While the literature indicates that its ecological effects are likely to be insignificant, its disposition in the terrestrial ecosystem after snow melt has not been adequately studied. Silver levels in soil, plant and litter material are being monitored twice a year on a mountainous area in southwestern Colorado, to determine whether annual accretion from cloud seeding can be measured with current techniques and whether significant changes in silver concentration take place in grass, aspen, and spruce communities. One AgI generator site is also being monitored. Comparison of silver concentrations in terrestrial components of the target area indicates no measurable increase after the first winter's seeding. On an ash basis, spruce foliage and litter contain about four times as much silver as soil. On a dry weight basis, soil from all three plant communities contains about six times as much silver as foliage. Consistent increases in silver concentration were found in soil and pine foliage within 200 meters of one generator site.     

POSSIBILITIES OF INCREASED WATER SUPPLY FROM CLOUD SEEDING1

ABSTRACT. A review of the development of weather modification to augment precipitation including the cloud-physical foundation is presented. Recent work has tended to re-emphasize the importance of physical understanding of storm systems and of the effects of cloud seeding. The Pyramid Lake Seeding Project is discussed.     

WEATHER MODIFICATION: AN ECONOMIC ALTERNATIVE FOR AUGMENTING WATER SUPPLIES1

ABSTRACT. Experimental results of cloud seeding in Southwestern Colorado suggest that runoff can be increased by 25 percent over a 3,300 mile area. There is a need to estimate the economic consequences in the Colorado River Basin. The evidence presented suggests that weather modification is an economically feasible means to provide additional water for the basin. Compared with other proposed means of augmenting water supplies, weather modifications appear to be one of the least cost alternatives. A very low proportion of weather modification costs are fixed; thus the program is easily reversible. Also, a relatively small increase in daily precipitation covers the direct costs of operation. Benefits of water produced by weather modification included power production and irrigation of forage crops. In the long run, if additional water is used for higher valued fruit and vegetable production, or for domestic and industrial purposes, its value would rise sharply. Preliminary investigation of extra-market costs and benefits suggests that while they have little effect on the benefit-cost ratio, they may be very important to individuals and groups affected. The distribution of costs and benefits is important as the benefits accrue to downstream users and some of the costs are incurred by Coloradoans. There is a need for further research on the long-run economic effects of weather modification programs, particularly with respect to extra-market factors.     

STORM CHARACTERISTICS OF CONVECTIVE-SCALE PRECIPITATION1

A classification scheme for convective precipitation, having applications in both analysis and modeling of meteorological and hydrological events, is presented. The method is based upon observations of rainfall at the ground, radar scans of storm events, and visible and infrared satellite imagery of larger storm systems. Empirical and theoretical frequency distributions are derived for total storm rainfall, rainfall duration and time between storms for each of the convective categories. This stratification is directly applicable to the experimental design and evaluation of weather modification projects and may be useful for the development and interpretation of meteorological and hydrological models. When atmospheric conditions limit storm development to cells, rainfall was seldom observed. Small clusters also produce small amounts of rainfall but have a longer lifetime than cells and are likely candidates for cloud seeding attempts to encourage their growth to large clusters. Large and nested clusters usually produce large amounts of natural precipitation. A few large storms account for most of a season's rainfall.     

ACCIDENTAL AND PLANNED WEATHER MODIFICATION IN ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: Weather modification, both planned by man and that accidentally produced by man, has been under intensive study in Illinois for ten years. Most everyone in Illinois and the Midwest is living in a climate that now is modified inadvertently from its natural state. State atmospheric scientists have tackled weather modification through a series of interrelated studies beginning with climatic studies (to establish the background), experimental design studies, experimental field studies to verify changes and their causes, and finally socio-economic and environmental studies to measure the impacts of weather modification. Studies at St. Louis show that the city acts as a trigger of summer clouds and rainfall leading to 4 to 6 summer days with 3 cm or more rain somewhere just east of the city. Power plants and jet aircraft also accidentally produce climatic changes. A focus on planned weather modification has been on the design of needed midwestern experiments in rainfall enhancement and hail suppression including the societal and environmental impacts.     

Describing Damage to Stream Modification Projects in Constrained Settings

Complex relationships between stream functions and processes make evaluation of stream modification projects difficult. Informed by vague objectives and minimal monitoring data, post‐construction project evaluations can often be a subjective attribution of success or failure. This article provides a simple framework to rapidly describe the degree of damage in stream modification projects performed in constrained settings. Based on widely accepted evaluations of physical habitat quality and stream stability, the damage states framework describes a continuum of damage in multiple categories that relate natural stream functions to the often desired state of static equilibrium. Given that channel form is closely related to stream function, it follows that changes to the channel form result in changes in function. The damage states focus on damage to flow hydraulics, sediment transport and channel equilibrium, hydraulic, and geomorphic parameters that describe basic stream functioning and support higher level functions in the modified channel. The damage states can be used in decision making as a systematic method to determine the need for repair and design adjustments.     

秦皇岛地区气候干旱与人工增雨的探索

气候分析表明:随着气候变化及环境城市化,秦皇岛市区域年平均气温指数呈上升趋势,特别是近10年出现了连续偏高的异常变化;年降水指数呈明显减小趋势,出现了连年干旱,高温少雨不仅使生态环境不断恶化,而且使农田干旱、水库蓄水严重不足,因此人工增雨变得更加迫切。目前,秦皇岛市人工增雨工作已进入常态化、业务化轨道。总结1999—2008年火箭人工增雨经验,人工增雨操作的技术关键:一是分析局地降水气候规律;二是利用碘化银进行人工增雨需要适当的温度条件,即所谓进行冷云催化。在增雨时应充分考虑这一物理机制,选择好合适的发射高度,把催化剂送到可催化的温度环境中,以保证作业成功率。     

ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES FOR FLOOD CONTROL CHANNELS1

ABSTRACT: The environmental effects of flood control channel modifications such as clearing and snagging, straightening, enlargement, and/or paving can be quite severe in some cases. Information review reveals that several environmental features have been incorporated into the design, construction, operation, or maintenance of recent flood control channel projects to avoid adverse environmental impacts and enhance environmental quality. Typically, these features have been proposed by conservation agencies and designed with minimal quantitative analysis. Environmental features for channel projects include selective clearing and snagging techniques, channel designs with nonuniform geometry such as single bank modification and floodways, restoration and enhancement of aquatic habitat, improved techniques for placement of excavated material, and revegetation.     

EVALUATING DIRECT BENEFIT ESTIMATION PROCEDURES FOR IRRIGATION PROJECTS: A SIMPLIFIED APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: An integral part of evaluating the net benefits generated by an existing or proposed irrigation project is the assessment of the associated impacts in commodity markets. Traditionally, these impacts have been measured by either assuming no change in commodity prices and calculating net returns to project farmers, or by allowing commodity prices to fall in accordance with a given elasticity of demand and subtracting commodity production costs from the associated area under the commodity demand curve. In either case, it is implicitly assumed that supply is perfectly inelastic. This article establishes that traditional approaches to measuring direct benefits are biased. Formulae are presented for calculating the maximum absolute and relative error which may result from using these techniques as a function of project size. Direct benefit estimates are then evaluated for three irrigation projects in Nebraska, illustrating how these results can be used to improve project evaluation procedures.     

EFFECTS OF SIMULATED CLOUD SEEDING ON STREAMFLOW OF SELECTED WATERSHEDS IN PENNSYLVANIA1

A mathematical model was developed to simulate the hydrologic behavior of five small watersheds in central Pennsylvania. Continuous hydrographs for the 6-month period, April to September 1964, were simulated. Synthesized rainfall cycles consisting of increasing rainfall by 10, 20, and 30 percent to simulate the effects of cloud seeding were processed through the watershed model to determine the effects on low flow augmentation. Other rainfall cycles used consisted of increasing every third storm by 30 percent and of developing a rainfall cycle by processing daily radiosonde data through a mathematical cumulus cloud model to obtain a prediction of rainfall following seeding. A comparison of actual and predicted hydrographs indicated that simulated cloud seeding resulted in significant monthly and seasonal water yields. In general, the results of the study appear to indicate that on a theoretical basis cloud seeding would be a feasible method of augmenting low stream-flow during the summer months on watersheds in the northern Appalachian region.     

The importance of local context in the planning of environmental projects: examples from two biogas cases

The planning of facilities to improve the environment is often carried through in the form of locally based construction projects. These projects can be complex, involving a variety of issues and a number of different actors from both the public and private sectors. By drawing on previous research on project planning, an analytical model for analysing the issues connected with the planning and implementation of environmental projects is developed. The main argument of the paper is the importance of considering how context-specific factors affect project design and project management. The empirical material is taken from the planning of two biogas projects in Sweden and it is showed how differences in factors such as the actors involved, the organisational framework and the political setting lead to two markedly distinct planning approaches. The results of the paper, which also highlight the importance of a flexible planning approach, are relevant not only for biogas but also for other projects with similar characteristics.     

‘Short Cut’ Techniques to Incorporate Environmental Considerations into Project Appraisal: An Exploration Using Case Studies

Incorporating environmental and natural resource impacts into the benefit-cost analysis of projects in the developing world now relies on a solid body of theory and recommended techniques, but there remain concerns with how this is done in practice. One aspect arises when time and resource constraints make highly sophisticated analysis difficult or impossible. This paper discusses situations where analyses can be improved using relatively simple ‘short cut’ techniques that substitute for more formal analysis that cannot be undertaken realistically or provide an added perspective on project viability. Case studies are employed to illustrate the techniques, based upon the author's experience with appraisals at the World Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD). It is shown that short cut techniques can dramatically alter the outcome of an appraisal at relatively little cost. However, caution is advised since such techniques can be misused, so that the development of suitable protocols is desirable.     

The practice of participatory research and gender analysis in natural resource management

Stakeholder participation is expected to improve the efficiency, equity, and sustainability of natural resource management research and development (R&D) projects by ensuring that research reflects users’ priorities, needs, capabilities, and constraints. Use of participatory methods and tools is growing rapidly; however, there is little systematic evidence about what participation actually means in practice, or about what difference it makes. Based on an inventory of 59 self‐described participatory R&D projects in the area of natural resource management, this article characterizes the typical project and analyzes how stakeholders are selected, how they participate in the research process, and what their involvement means for project costs and impacts. The results suggest that, while projects are generating a range of direct and indirect benefits for participants, more careful attention needs to be paid to achieving equitable impacts. Current practices may lag behind best practices in key areas, such as power sharing and participant selection, and may therefore be missing important contributions from women and other marginalized groups.     

Hydrologic analysis for coastal wetland restoration

Increasing recognition of the value of tidal wetlands has led to interest in how to restore and enhance areas that have been modified by human activity. The policy of recognizing restoration or enhancement as mitigation for destruction of other wetlands is controversial. Once policy questions are separated from technical questions, the steps in a successful project are straightforward A key element in the design of a successful project is quantitative hydraulic and hydrologic analysis of alternatives. Restoration projects at two sites in California used a combination of empirical geomorphic relationships, numerical modeling, and verification with field observations. Experience with these and other wetland restoration projects indicates the importance of longterm postproject monitoring, inspection, and maintenance     

Satellite Precipitation Measurements for Water Resource Monitoring1

Abstract: Satellites offer an unrivaled vantage point to observe and measure Earth system processes and parameters. Observations of meteorological phenomena permit a more holistic view of the weather and climate that is not possible through conventional surface observations. Precipitation (rain and snow) in particular, benefit from such observations since precipitation is spatially and temporally highly variable: conventional gauge and radar measurements tend to be land‐based with variable coverage. This paper provides an overview of the satellite systems that provide the observations, the techniques used to derive precipitation from the observations, and examples of the precipitation products available for users to access.     

Evolution of environmental impact assessment as applied to watershed modification projects in Canada

This article reviews the application of environmental impact assessment (EIA) procedures and practices to three watershed modification projects situaled in western Canada. These ventures were justified for accelerating regional economic development, and cover the period during which public concerns for protecting the environment rapidly made their way into the national political agenda. An historical account and analysis of the situation, therefore, seems desirable in order to understand the development of EIA processes, practices, and methodologies since the start of construction of the first project in 1961. This study concludes that there has been good progress in predicting and evaluating environmental and related social impacts of watershed modification proposals. However, a number of obstacles need to be overcome before EIA can firmly establish itself as an effective planning tool. These difficulties include jurisdictional confusions and conflicts, division of authority and responsibility in designing and implementing appropriate mitigative and monitoring measures, lack of tested EIA methodologies, and limited availability of qualified human resources. A number of conclusions and suggestions are offered so that future watershed modification proposals may be planned and implemented in a more environmentally sustainable fashion. These include: (1) EIA processes must be completed before irrevocable decisions are made. (2) Any major intrusion into a watershed is likely to impact on some major components of the ecosystem(s). (3) Mitigation costs must form part of the benefit-cost analysis of any project proposal. (4) Interjurisdictional cooperation is imperative where watersheds cross political boundaries. (5) The EIA process is a public process, hence public concerns must be dealt with fairly. (6) The role of science in the EIA process must be at arms length from project proponents and regulators, and allowed to function in the interest of the protection of the environment and public health and safety. The views expressed here are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect those of FEARO and/or other government agencies and officials involved in the review of these projects.     

Cui bono: the Scottish Climate Challenge Fund and community benefits

This study adopted an open-ended exploratory approach to elicit the perspectives of a selection of six Climate Challenge Fund projects. This central idea is that communities' perspective on attempted carbon reduction initiative in their areas has use in other contexts and could enable better design of such interventions in future. The main finding was that emphasising local benefits was conducive to their achieving local involvement in the project. The results of this research should be tested in other contexts. Three broad implications for the design of community carbon reduction initiatives are raised in assuming these outcomes are correct. First, the community hosting such initiatives should be perceived to hold a degree of power over the project. Second, central authorities should not be overly prohibitive about the motivations of those participating in such projects. Finally, the use of non-environmental messaging has value in shifting people to more pro-environmental behaviours.     

Analysis of Damaging Hydrogeological Events: The Case of the Calabria Region (Southern Italy)

A period of bad weather conditions due to prolonged intense rainfall and strong winds can trigger landslides, floods, secondary floods (accumulation of rain on surfaces with low permeability), and sea storms, causing damage to humans and infrastructure. As a whole, these periods of bad weather and triggered phenomena can be defined as damaging hydrogeological events (DHEs). We define a methodological approach based on seven simple indexes to analyze such events. The indexes describe the return period (T) and trend of rainfall, the extent of hit areas, and the level of damages; they can be considered attributes of georeferenced features and analyzed with GIS techniques. We tested our method in an Italian region frequently hit by DHEs. In a period of 10 years, 747 damaging phenomena (landslides, 43%; floods, 38%) and 94 DHEs have been classified. The road network and housing areas are the most frequently damaged elements, threatened by all types of damaging phenomena. T classes are almost in accordance with the level of damage. These results can be used to outline warning levels for civil protection purposes, to forecast the areas most likely to be hit and the potential ensuing damage, to disseminate information concerning vulnerable areas, and to increase people’s awareness of risk.