Dynamic material flow analysis of zinc resources in China

Zinc is one of the most widely applied nonferrous metals in China. Study on the applications and recurrent situation of zinc resources is of great strategic importance for the sustainable development of China's economy. In this paper, a dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) method has been adopted to analyze quantificationally zinc resources in China, as well as to analyze and predict the quantity of zinc product scrap and their recycling situation. The weighted average method was applied to calculate average lifetimes of six major zinc products in China. The average lifetimes of battery, zinc oxide, zinc die-casting alloys, zinc material products, galvanized zinc and brass are 0.17, 5.3, 11.1, 12, 21 and 30 years, respectively. Assuming the lifetime of zinc product group obeys the Weibull distribution and the consumption of zinc products varies linearly with time, the future consumption and scrap generation of zinc products will increase continuously. It is expected that they would increase from 49% to 76% during 2004–2020, respectively. Assuming the recycling rate remains unchanged with time, the zinc old scrap index, both the theoretical and actual values, would continue increasing in China. The values are expected to reach 0.402 and 0.076 by 2020, respectively. Therefore, the regeneration resource of depreciated zinc is actually insufficient in China. According to the scenario analysis, the actual value of old scrap indexes is positively correlated with the recycling rate of zinc products. Because galvanized products are the largest consumption area of zinc products in China, the influence of their recycling rate on old scrap index is obviously larger than other zinc products. Through the analysis, this paper suggests that the increase of the recycling rate of zinc products could not only improve to a certain degree China's relative shortage of zinc resources, but greatly relive the supply pressure of zinc in the world.     

Challenges and political solutions for steel recycling in China

The circular economy is an essential component of China's sustainable development. To promote the recycling of end-of-life products, the government has adopted various policies. Steel scrap is an important resource for steelmaking. Yet, the Chinese iron and steel industry uses less scrap to produce new steel compared to other large steelmaking countries. This article examines the reasons, why steel recycling is still relatively weak in China and what measures the government takes to improve the situation. We found that limited availability of scrap, high scrap prices, inadequate steelmaking capacities, industry fragmentation and unclear responsibilities for manufacturers are the main obstacles for steel recycling in China. The government is trying to improve steel recycling through tax incentives, import facilitation, support for supply, industry reorganization, and recycling parks, but with modest results.     

Effectiveness of the policy of circular economy in China: A DEA-based analysis for the period of 11th five-year-plan

As a policy instrument for sustainable development, nationwide circular economy (CE) mode has been implemented for 7 years by the Chinese government, to overcome the dilemma among economic depression, energy shortage and environmental pollution. Unfortunately, few literatures contribute to checking the efficiency of regional CE and exploring the potential reasons in China, which will be practically helpful in guiding China's future development and providing reference for other developing countries that will adopt CE mode. Therefore, this paper puts forward the method of super-efficiency DEA window analysis to dynamically evaluate CE efficiency of 30 regions in China covering the period of 2005–2010. In line with the features of CE, the specific efficiency of three sub-systems, namely resource saving and pollutant reducing (RSPR) sub-system, waste reusing and resource recycling (WRRR) sub-system and pollution controlling and waste disposing (PCWD) sub-system, was assessed and compared regarding time series trend and spatial distribution, based on which, the comprehensive CE efficiency was totally ranked. The results show that, on the one hand, during the period of 2005–2010, Chinese CE efficiency slightly increased, implying a significant policy effect of CE; on the other hand, the efficiency of different sub-systems varies, with RSPR sub-system the lowest, and WRRR and PCWD sub-systems relatively higher. In terms of regional distribution, the efficiency of RSPR sub-system in the east area dominates during the whole period. However, for the other two sub-systems, from 2005 to 2007, the efficiency scores of the east fluctuate, then after 2007, the east area became more efficient than the central and the west areas. Throughout the study period, the RSPR sub-system in the central area stably maintains low efficiency, and so does the WRRR sub-system in the west area. The difference in regional efficiency of three sub-systems reflects the difficulty of carrying out CE policy in China comprehensively, which means that, promoting the adaptability of regional policy for local government and enhancing the coordination among various policies for China's central government are the key concerns for realizing sustainable development.     

A future perspective on lithium-ion battery waste flows from electric vehicles

As a proactive step towards understanding future waste management challenges, this paper presents a future oriented material flow analysis (MFA) used to estimate the volume of lithium-ion battery (LIB) wastes to be potentially generated in the United States due to electric vehicle (EV) deployment in the near and long term future. Because future adoption of LIB and EV technology is uncertain, a set of scenarios was developed to bound the parameters most influential to the MFA model and to forecast “low,” “baseline,” and “high” projections of future end-of-life battery outflows from years 2015 to 2040. These models were implemented using technology forecasts, technical literature, and bench-scale data characterizing battery material composition. Considering the range from the most conservative to most extreme estimates, a cumulative outflow between 0.33 million metric tons and 4 million metric tons of lithium-ion cells could be generated between 2015 and 2040. Of this waste stream, only 42% of the expected materials (by weight) is currently recycled in the U.S., including metals such as aluminum, cobalt, copper, nickel, and steel. Another 10% of the projected EV battery waste stream (by weight) includes two high value materials that are currently not recycled at a significant rate: lithium and manganese. The remaining fraction of this waste stream will include materials with low recycling potential, for which safe disposal routes must be identified. Results also indicate that because of the potential “lifespan mismatch” between battery packs and the vehicles in which they are used, batteries with high reuse potential may also be entering the waste stream. As such, a robust end-of-life battery management system must include an increase in reuse avenues, expanded recycling capacity, and ultimate disposal routes that minimize risk to human and environmental health.     

日本促进可持续消费经验的启示

日本相对丰富的促进可持续消费经验对我国正在大力推动绿色生活方式的形成有较好的参考价值。本文介绍了日本循环社会法律框架下循环再生利用法和绿色采购促进法对促进可持续消费的作用,以及可持续消费的最新实践活动,并从循环再生利用法律法规建立、深化公共绿色采购评估、发布面向普通消费者产品清单、建立消费者发声通道、提升消费者意识、促进消费者导向管理等方面提出对我国推动绿色消费的启示。     

中国固体废物进出口格局演化分析——以废纸为例

固体废物进出口是影响我国生态文明建设及区域可持续发展的重要因素,也是最近环境管理关注的焦点。为了认识我国固体废物的进出口形势和全球固体废物贸易的格局,本文以进口量最大的固体废物——废纸为例,系统总结梳理了近年来我国废纸进出口情况的演化,绘制了2016年国际废纸贸易的流向地图,从2015年以来的废物管理政策调整出发探讨未来废纸产业的发展和转变。研究发现:(1)作为主要的造纸原材料,我国废纸进口量从1996年的137万t增加到2016年的2850万t,增长了近20倍。(2)当前全球废纸贸易突出表现为发达国家出口、发展中国家进口的格局,我国作为最大的废纸进口国,进口约占全球总量55%的废纸,美国则为最大的废纸出口国,出口约占全球总量36%的废纸。(3)应对洋垃圾入境的挑战,未来我国应在进口管控、再生资源产业发展等多个方面继续加强政策的引导和调控作用,激励国内的再生资源市场,促使废纸利用企业调整产业布局,加快产业转型。     

推动我国消费绿色转型的路径研究——基于多重外部影响因素视角

绿色消费是我国推动经济高质量发展,实现绿色发展和2030年可持续发展目标的关键领域之一。目前我国绿色消费意愿正不断上升,绿色产业迅速兴起;从市场机制来看,绿色消费通过供求关系变化影响经济绿色发展。特别是在建设绿色“一带一路”的进程中,以更大力度在更广范围推动绿色消费正当其时。分析发现,影响绿色消费的因素主要包括消费观念,以绿色标准和认证制度、政府绿色采购制度、税收和绿色激励机制为代表的公共政策以及绿色供给产品和服务的质量等。当前中国消费者的绿色消费观念和意识仍旧淡薄,公共政策制定仍不完善,在引导绿色消费方面的作用仍旧较弱,同时还存在绿色产品供应不足、绿色技术创新不足等方面的问题,影响了绿色消费理念向实际绿色消费行为的转化。对此政府可以通过完善绿色采购制度、推动出台绿色采购法、扩大绿色消费品的财政补贴范围、扩大开放等方式推动我国消费向绿色转型。     

The time-varying factors influencing the recycling rate of products

In Europe targets have been laid down by EU legislation for the recycling rate of end-of-life vehicles to be achieved within the nearby future. It is illustrated in this paper that the definition of the recycling rate and the realisation of the imposed targets are very much dependent on different parameters such as the changing lifetime of the product and product design. It may seem obvious that the recycling rate is determined by various time-varying factors, however, this paper endeavours to describe and quantify the role of these factors on the recycling rate over time by the use of a dynamic systems model. This model permits the prediction of the recycling rate as a function of the numerous presented parameters, changing design scenarios etc. In addition, different definitions of the recycling rate will be presented and discussed. This will lead to a better understanding of the parameters affecting the recycling system and a more precise understanding of the recycling targets and their realisation as imposed by EU legislation. This paper focuses on cars, but the discussion and the definitions derived are equally valid for any end-of-life product.     

欧盟碳边境调节机制的影响与应对分析

欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）是当前国际上应对气候变化领域讨论的热点议题。欧盟委员会于2021年7月14日发布了CBAM草案,计划从2023年起逐步实施CBAM,并于2026年起正式对欧盟进口的部分商品征收碳边境调节税,这一举措引起了国际社会的强烈反响。本文对欧盟CBAM对全球和中国的影响进行了系统分析,结果表明： CBAM对全球减排的作用较小,中国碳密集产业将遭遇欧盟等国际市场竞争挤压,可能推进中国碳价上涨,建议要加强跟踪评估与开展储备研究,通过深入参与和引领国际标准与规则制定、全面发展低碳技术和产品、完善碳排放权交易制度、研究开征碳税等积极主动做好应对工作。     

Value from shredder waste: Ongoing limitations in the UK

Shredder residue is the residue from the shredding of end-of-life vehicles and white goods, after removal of the main metals. Approximately 850,000 tonnes of shredder waste is produced in the UK each year, and historically sent to landfill. Due to European legislation such as the End-of-Life Vehicle (ELV) Directive and the Landfill Directive there is pressure to minimise this waste through recycling and recovery.In this paper, primary data are presented showing that 40% of materials are potentially recoverable in the coarser fraction of UK automotive shredder residue (>30 mm). Barriers to such recycling are discussed in the context of several recent drivers, including this waste's possible reclassification as hazardous.The lack of full and timely implementation of the ELV Directive in the UK has made it an ineffective driver, and it is now unlikely that its 2006 recycling targets will be met as intended.     

Modelling of the location of vehicle recycling facilities: A case study in Poland

The technical progress causes that increasing number of used devices presents a threat for environment, particularly in the rural areas. It can be prevented by organizing a proper system of waste disposal. Currently, the most important problem to solve is recycling of vehicles. The key element for the improvement of the functioning of the recycling network in Poland is to redesign the system so that it will allow for a reduction of the total cost related to the vehicle recycling. This paper presents a modelling approach that could be used to establish one important part of the reverse logistics (RL) network for end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) by defining the optimum locations for dismantling facilities. The proposed modelling approach is illustrated using Mazovia province in Poland as an example. The optimization criteria for the location of the elements of the recycling network are the components of the total cost of the ELV's recycling. Due to high complexity of the model a genetic algorithm has been adapted for solving the model and getting a good solution in a reasonable run time. The criteria of optimization was cost of the following processes: transportation, storage, and dismantling of ELVs. The results of simulation proved that the transportation costs of parts and materials may amount to about 70%, and that the cost of dismantling may exceed 25% of the total cost of recycling. The obtained results confirmed that genetic algorithm method can be used effectively to location the ELV's dismantling facilities. The effect of changing the location of processing facilities on the location of dismantling stations was also studied. The developed model is universal and may be used to determine the locations of different kinds of facilities organized in a reverse recycling network.     

中国实现2030年可持续发展目标进程分析与对策

本文基于联合国可持续发展行动网络牵头发布的可持续发展目标指数和指示板报告，对中国实现2030年可持续发展目标状况进行了分析，认为尽管中国的SDG指数在全球整体排名中呈逐步上升趋势，但生态环境相关指标总体依然面临严峻挑战：中国与生态环境相关的目标评级偏低；SDG指数和指示板报告采用的评价指标与中国生态环境保护重点工作关联性不强；中国的统计数据难以满足测量2030年议程的数据需求等。为实现联合国倡议的2030年可持续发展目标，中国应打好污染防治攻坚战，提高环境治理水平，加快建立中国本土化评估指标体系，形成SDGs指标年度报告制，建立SDGs实施机制，建立与2030年议程相适应的统计支撑体系。     

核电环境风险研究进展及管理启示

为满足快速增长的电力需求,缓解传统化石能源紧缺及其所伴随的大气污染问题,发电过程中几乎不产生常规大气污染物的核电逐渐成为我国重要的能源战略选择。但是,由于核电站在运行过程中,特别是发生重大核事故时,产生的放射性物质可能对健康造成负面影响,发展核电仍然存在较大的争议和阻力。在此背景下,需要构建科学、完善的核电风险评估与管理体系,以保障我国的核电行业健康、有序发展。在对国内外核电风险评估研究现状进行系统梳理的基础上,分析其对核电风险管理的意义,提出了我国未来构建核电风险评估与管理体系的建议。     

Forecast of the demand and supply plan of China’s uranium resources till 2030

This paper’s purpose is to predict China’s uranium resources demand from 2016 to 2030 based on experimental modeling. In addition, we discuss the future supply structure of China’s uranium resources by analyzing the domestic and foreign supply capacity of China’s uranium resources. According the forecast results, Chinese uranium resource demand will reach 21385 tU in 2030 under a medium scenario. Due to the poor endowment of uranium resources, China’s domestic uranium production will increase slowly. It can be calculated that the total demand of uranium resources in China during 2016–2030 will be 216581 tU, the cumulative production of domestic production will be 37900 tU, the overseas production will be 41950 tU, and the international market purchases will be 130574 tU. Hence, the cumulative degree of dependence on foreign resources is approximately 80%. China’s foreign dependence on uranium will be greater than for oil, and the situation will become extremely serious. Therefore, we put forward several suggestions to ensure the supply of China’s uranium resources: (1) strengthening mineral exploration and increasing domestic production, (2) actively operating the “going out” strategy, (3) enhancing the enterprise competition ability, and (4) establishing uranium resource reserves. By these means, China could efficiently guarantee the domestic uranium resource security and respond to the competition of India’s uranium resources demand increased.     

Li-ion battery recycling and cobalt flow analysis in Japan

Batteries sometimes contain precious or toxic substances (e.g. nickel, cobalt, lead, mercury, cadmium). However, the collection and recycling rate of small batteries were low in Japan.We focus on cobalt in lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries and conduct chemical analysis, questioner survey and flow analysis in Japan.Results of chemical analysis showed that the concentration of cobalt in Li-ion batteries was around 20% regardless of the year manufactured or the manufacturer. As a result of the consumer questionnaire survey, it became clear that 70% or more of the small batteries are not being removed when small electronic products are finally disposed. The survey also revealed that recognition of the law and system for collection and recycling of small rechargeable batteries is approximately 30–40%. Substance flow analysis showed that both production and demand for Li-ion batteries (cobalt) have increased during 2002–2010. The collection rate for used Li-ion batteries was about 10% during this period; uncollected batteries were either stored or disposed through incineration and landfill as municipal solid waste.     

可持续雨水管理与海绵城市构建的美国经验

随着中国经济的快速发展,越来越多的水环境问题开始涌现。海绵城市的提出正是立足于当下中国城市内涝及相关环境问题。基于此,本文简要分析了中国城市内涝的原因及海绵城市相关构建思路,重点阐述了美国可持续雨水管理经验与守护水资源上的实际做法,并给出了美国雨水管理实例,以期为中国海绵城市建设提供参考。     

对外经济贸易对中国碳排放的影响:基于省级面板数据的实证分析

改革开放以来,我国的对外经济贸易有了显著的发展,外商直接投资和进出口的快速增长有效地推动了经济的快速发展。然而在经济发展的同时,我国碳排放水平日益提高,已成为全球最大排放国。为了更好地管控碳排放,研究外商直接投资(FDI),对外贸易与碳排放的关系具有重要意义。本文通过对我国1995—2011年29个省(市、自治区)的FDI、对外贸易对碳排放的动态效应分析发现,FDI与进出口水平的提升均有利于降低我国碳排放的水平,“污染天堂”假说在我国并未得到证实。同时,本文验证了“环境库兹涅茨曲线”在我国的存在,证实了我国的碳排放水平与人均GDP存在倒“U”型关系。     

Dynamic material flow analysis of steel resources in Korea

Material flow analysis (MFA) is an evaluation technique that systematically identifies the flows and stocks of materials within predefined spatial and temporal boundaries. In this paper, the steel resources in Korea are investigated using dynamic MFA. Iron ore and steel scrap are added as raw material components during the production processes of steel, which is then used in a variety of product groups such as construction products, transportation equipment, machinery/metal products, electrical/electronic devices, and other products through fabrication and manufacturing processes. When such product groups are discarded, they are either recycled or landfilled. With consideration for the lifetimes of various product groups in conjunction with steel resource flows in Korea, dynamic MFA is conducted on the flows of steel stock change and annual scrap generation. By 2020, these two flows are expected to increase by as much as 40% and 30%, respectively, compared to 2008, with transportation equipment, in particular, envisaged to experience high growth. At the current recycling rate, however, it will be hard to meet future scrap demand. According to the scenario analysis, 100% of this future scrap demand can be supplied domestically if the recycling rate is increased to over 70% for all product groups, except construction products and transportation equipment, which already have high recycling rates. By 2020, the reduction in scrap importation costs is projected to offer a financial gain of 2.3 billion dollars.     

我国城市生活垃圾回收利用率测算及其统计数据收集对策

我国将生活垃圾分类收集定位为重要民生工程和生态文明建设的工作内容,并对实施生活垃圾强制分类的示范城市明确提出了"生活垃圾回收利用率"的绩效考核目标。由于城市生活垃圾处理和再生资源回收利用由不同职能部门负责管理,不同来源的生活垃圾回收利用统计数据未有效整合,目前还缺乏我国城市生活垃圾回收利用率指标测算的相关研究。本文界定了"生活垃圾回收利用率"的科学内涵,并以城市建设、再生资源利用等统计资料和物质流分析文献为基础,初步测算了全国尺度的城市生活垃圾回收利用率。研究表明,我国2006—2015年的城市生活垃圾回收利用率从12.1%上升至17.0%,然后又缓慢下降至15.6%,由于数据缺乏,该数值可能在-28%~+32%波动。生活垃圾中回收利用量较大的可再生资源分别为废纸、废塑料、废钢铁、废玻璃等。本文还分析了目前测算生活垃圾回收利用率的数据不确定性和局限性,提出了面向生活垃圾分类管理实际评价的统计数据收集对策。     

“后小康”时期我国排污许可制改革实施路线图研究

排污许可制度是发达国家普遍实行并证明行之有效的点源管理制度。"十三五"以来,我国以排污许可制度为核心的固定污染源管理体系进入快速高效构建期。2020年后,我国将进入"后小康社会"时期,排污许可制度改革与实施也将进入一个新时期。本文在充分研究目前排污许可制度改革面临问题的基础上,参考国际经验,提出"后小康"时期排污许可制改革的路线图。围绕环境质量改善,通过"后小康"时期排污许可制度的进一步改革与创新,使得中国排污许可制度更加完善、内容规范细致,让排污许可制真正成为固定污染源环境管理的核心制度,为确保"十九大"提出的"环境质量根本好转"的目标打下坚实基础。