短时大暴雨的多普勒雷达探测及暴雨预警信号发布

本文通过对环流背景和广州CINRAD-SA多普勒天气雷达资料的详细分析,探讨了发生在广州市的一次短时大暴雨的成因.结果表明：广州市夏季短时大暴雨在低空急流、低层辐合以及高空辐散和抽吸作用的有利环流背景下,多个单体接连穿越同一地区所造成,单体排列方向与单体移动方向一致.弱中气旋特征、逆风区和能量锋对对流的维持和加强起到了十分重要的作用.另外本文还对暴雨预警信号的发布技巧进行了探讨.     

兴化苏08井水位微动态及其与地震活动的关系

本文对苏08井水位多年趋势上升、微气压效应,固体潮效应、降水荷载效应、地震波效应的微动态特征进行了系统的总结.在此基础上,提出了该井的水位异常判别指标,并探讨了与地震活动的关系.     

晋陕蒙接壤地区的水土流失灾害及其防治

本文对晋陕蒙接壤地区的水土流失情况进行了简要论述,对水土流失的根源进行了探讨,并在此基础上提出了防治水土流失的基本措施。     

论人类与旱涝灾害相互作用的关系

本文以旱涝灾害与农业发展为主线，对人类与旱涝灾害的关系进行了分析．全文由两部分组成：①探讨了在人类的不同发展阶段，旱涝灾害对人类特别是农业生产的作用形式；②就旱涝灾害对人类社会的破坏作用及其时间和空间特点等进行了分析．     

华北油田任845井注水诱发地震特征与地震机制探讨

本文分析了任845井注水与地震时间的相关性,震群序列特征,探讨了注水地震机制并对该区注水诱发地震趋势进行了估计。     

当代世界50起重大毒性灾害初析

本文对当代世界１９３０～１９９２年５０起重大毒性灾害进行了分析。其中药物中毒６起，食物中毒７起，环境污染８起，毒气泄漏５起，有毒化学品与有毒气体爆炸９起，核爆炸与核辐射６起，恐怖行为２起，其它毒性灾害７起。本文还对减轻毒性灾害的基本对策进行了探讨。     

青口地裂缝成因探讨

摘要本文对地裂缝的成因进行了分析,并对该区产生地裂缝的原因就地震、地质、地下水诸因素进行了具体分析,并运用地下水平衡方程式对该区地下水进行了具体分析计算,从而论证、探讨了该区地裂缝的成因。     

我国灾害经济统计评估系统及其指标体系的研究

灾害经济现象的统计与评估问题,是开展减灾系统工程及进行灾害经济学研究的重要前提。本文从系统科学的观点出发,分析了建立我国灾害经济系统评估系统的一般问题,同时还对我国灾害经济统计评估指标体系的设计进行了初步探讨.     

地震荷载作用下石窟的震害特征及抗震加固

本文分析了石窟的震害特征和所在边坡的失稳因素，通过静态理论分别对没加固的、挡墙加固的、锚杆加固的石窟边坡进行了抗震性能分析，并对石窟加固方法的抗震稳定性进行了探讨。     

江苏井网水位动态的远震效应研究

本文对江苏地下水动态观测网记录到远震前的井水位变化图象特征及其与地震强度、时间、方位和井孔所处断裂带活动强度等关系进行了系统的分析研究.指出利用井网记录的水位异常信息,有可能对位于江苏省东南方向的台湾及其附近地区地震作出一定程度的预报.并对映震井孔的条件,远震效应的机理进行了探讨.     

中国水土流失的基本概况及其综合治理

水土流失是一个全球性的环境问题，给人类的生命和物质财产造成极大的危害与破坏。在现代社会，由于人口的持续增长、社会经济生产规模的不断扩大、植被破坏的急剧发展，对国家经济的发展构成了威胁。在上述背景下，本文在对以往研究结果进行综合分析的基础上，根据“再造一个山川秀美的西北地区”之要求，因地制宜地提出了我国水土流失的防治途径。     

我国海岸带灾害成因分析及减灾对策

近年来海岸带灾害越来越成为制约海岸带－我国最重要的经济带社会、经济和环境可持续发展的重要因素。本文在全球变化和人类活动影响的背景下，分析探讨了我国海岸带灾害的基本成因，并提出了相应的概念性减灾对策框架，海岸带生态环境的脆弱性，全球变化（相对海平面变化、气候异常）和人类活动是导致我国海岸带灾害的3个主要方面。据此，认为减灾的关键在于合理规范人类行为，保护和改善本已十分脆弱的海岸带生态环境，使人与自然界和谐相处；对于全球变化诱发的灾害，则力求基于科学认识与预测，在海岸带开发中合理规划建设，做到未雨绸缪，实现海岸带社会经济可持续发展。     

A multi-scale coastal vulnerability index: A tool for coastal managers?

Coastal hazard management involves the assessment of vulnerability in natural and human environments. Indices incorporating a diversity of indicators have therefore been used extensively to provide spatial analyses of the degree of vulnerability. Such indices are typically applied at global and national scales, and they involve varying degrees of simplification and aggregation of information. The degree of simplification that is desirable depends on the management scale, and higher resolution is required at the local compared to the global scale. To investigate the implications of spatial scale in depicting coastal hazard risk, coastal vulnerability indices were developed at national (Northern Ireland), local authority and site levels. Variables were separated into three sub-indices: a coastal characteristics sub-index concerned with the resilience and susceptibility of the coast to erosion, a coastal forcing sub-index to characterize the forcing variables contributing to wave-induced erosion and a socio-economic sub-index to assess the infrastructure potentially at risk. The three sub-indices were merged to calculate the overall index, which is portrayed in the form of colour-coded vulnerability maps. While a common tripartite index could be employed at national, regional and local scales, the nature of the data used to quantify many of the variables varies according to the scale of management. Some important local variations in vulnerability are masked by simplifications at the national scale. For some variables more detailed information is available as the spatial resolution of the study increases, while others become obsolete as data are of insufficient resolution to differentiate real variability at more detailed scales. The results highlight the importance of spatial scale in developing indices of vulnerability: while a common index architecture can be applied, the selection of variables must take account of the scale at which the hazard is to be assessed. It is likely that limits on index development will also be imposed by data availability at various scales.     

小天体撞击灾害

由小天体与地球相撞而造成的撞击灾害是发生在太阳系尺度上的特大自然灾害：所谓小天体，是指那些可能与地球相撞的近地小行星、短周期彗星和长周期彗星，撞击灾害比洪水、地震和其他自然灾害更少发生，可是撞击灾害的后果却严重得多，甚至严重到可以引起地球生物大规模绝来的程度，并非所有撞击地球的小天体都能造成撞击灾害，能量低于10Mt的小天体就不能形成撞击灾害，而能量接近全球撞击灾害阈值（10^5-10^6Mt）的撞击灾害风险最大，全球撞击灾害是目前我们唯一知道能够造成世界上当大部分死亡的自然灾害，并且它的风险水平与我们熟悉的许多自然灾害相当。     

Contesting the crisis narrative: epidemic accounts in Sierra Leone,Tanzania, and Democratic Republic of the Congo

Scientists and global commentators watched African countries closely in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, predicting an impending disaster: the virus was projected to overwhelm already weak health systems. These expectations were informed by imaginaries of Africa as an inevitable site of epidemic disaster. This paper draws on accounts from Sierra Leone, Tanzania, and Democratic Republic of the Congo to contrast global catastrophe framings with everyday imaginations and experiences of crisis and crisis management. Utilising ethnographic research, the paper initially explores how COVID-19 was understood in relation to previous epidemics, from HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) to Ebola, as well as political conflict. It then considers how global crisis narratives both inform and are in tension with everyday collective and personal experiences. The paper brings these empirical reflections into a conversation with theoretical debates on the discursive construction of crisis and its effects, and argues that these tensions matter because crisis framings have consequences.     

Small island developing states: natural disaster vulnerability and global change

Abstract

This paper sets out an examination of natural disaster amongst small island developing states (SIDS), and presents a framework for assessing the interaction of global pressures and local dynamics in the production of human vulnerability. Change at the global level is found to be a source of new opportunities as well as constraints on building local resilience to natural disaster. Much depends on the orientation of the state in global economic and political systems. The United Nations is a key global actor with relevance to shaping vulnerabilityin island states, and the impact of the UN Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction is reviewed. It is concluded that this is a critical time for SIDS which must contend with ongoing developmental pressures in addition to growing pressures from risks associated with global environmental change and economic liberalisation that threaten their physical and economic security.     

全球气候变化情景下的河北省区域减灾建设

全球气候变化将导致一些地区自然灾害加剧,并将影响到区域的可持续发展.加强区域减灾建设,及早采取相应措施,是适应未来全球气候变化的明智选择.鉴于全球气候变化的影响存在区域差异,不同区域采取的对策也有所区别.本文以河北省为例,分析了该区域自然灾害的类型、历史时期和现在灾害的特点、发生规律及其原因,并根据该区域未来的全球气候变化趋势,提出了一些需要及早实施的战略性减灾对策.     

湖北省强对流天气灾害的特征分析

本文根据史载气象灾害的记录(古代公元前186～1839年,近代1840～1949年)和现代气象灾害的详细记录(1950～2000年)的资料分析,概述了湖北省强对流天气灾害的时空分布特征;分析了造成湖北省强对流灾害的天气尺度系统、中小尺度系统的特征等.     

The orientation of disaster donations: differences in the global response to five major earthquakes

This study analyses the influence of gift giving, geographical location, political regime, and trade openness on disaster donation decisions, using five severe earthquakes that occurred between 2008 and 2012 as case studies. The results show that global disaster donation is not dominated by only philanthropy or trade interests, and that the determinants of donation decisions vary with the scale of the natural disaster and the characteristics of the disaster‐affected countries. While gift giving exists in the case of middle‐size earthquakes, political regimes play a very important part in the overall donation process. Countries with higher perceived corruption may donate more frequently, but those that are more democratic may be more generous in their donations. Generosity based on geographical proximity to the calamity is significant in the decision‐making process for most natural disasters, yet it may have a negative effect on donations in Latin America and the Caribbean.     

From Holy War to Opium War? A Case Study of the Opium Economy in North‐eastern Afghanistan

This paper examines the recent growth of the opium economy in north-eastern Afghanistan. A detailed analysis of one village in Badakshan Province reveals profound changes in the local economy and social institutions. The paper describes two major shifts in the local economy: first, the switch from wheat to poppy cultivation; and second, the shift from the livestock trade to the opium trade. It then examines the underlying causes and impacts of the opium economy on social relations in the village. Although a case study of a community living on the margins of the global economy, it is argued that these changes have important implications for international policymakers. The emergence of the opium economy in north-eastern Afghanistan is symptomatic of new and expanding forms of trans-border trade associated with the restructuring of the global political economy.