新疆地级市CO_2排放空间特征研究

基于中国高空间分辨率网格数据,建立新疆地级市CO_2排放数据集,探讨新疆CO_2排放的空间特征,为新疆低碳发展的空间布局规划提供一定的依据。研究采用"自下而上"的空间化方法建立排放数据集,并用统计学方法分析排放数据统计特征。研究结果:从整体看,CO_2直接排放总体分散,局部集中,基本沿着天山分为南部和北部,北部地区排放高于南部地区。从区域看,天山北坡经济带CO_2排放最高;丝绸之路经济带的中通道、北通道和南通道排放依次递减。从部门看,服务业与城镇生活CO_2排放相关性最高,间接排放与其他部门排放相关性最弱。从类型看,工业型地级市CO_2人均排放最高,总排放均值略低于服务业型地级市,远高于其他类型地级市;人口规模越大的地级市CO_2排放均值越大,但其人均排放越少。结论与讨论:1新疆CO_2排放空间差异显著,其排放较大的地级市整体效率不高,将是减排的重点区。2工业化、城镇化是新疆CO_2排放的重要影响因素,将是减排的着力点。3省际生态补偿和碳排放指标分配时应适度考虑能源输出引致本地较高CO_2排放的特情。     

中国城市CO_2排放数据集研究——基于中国高空间分辨率网格数据

城市CO_2排放数据的可获取性和质量直接影响了城市碳排放的科学研究、低碳战略制定及公众对于城市低碳发展的监督和参与。数据缺乏和多源数据的不确定性大是中国城市CO_2排放核算和低碳城市规划面临的重要问题和挑战,而这些问题同时也导致中国低碳城市研究水平参差不齐。本研究使用自下而上建立的中国高空间分辨率网格数据(空间分辨率为1km),采用统一数据源和规范化、标准化数据处理方法,建立中国城市CO_2排放数据集,供研究者和决策者参考。城市CO_2排放计算借鉴国际上较为成熟和应用广泛的核算方法,包括范围1和范围2排放。以北京、上海、天津、重庆和广州5个典型城市的能源统计数据自上而下计算其CO_2排放作为参考水平,检验数据集的数值质量,结果显示5个城市的数据差异均不超过10%。中国城市CO_2排放整体呈现北方大于南方,东部高于中部和西部的空间格局。CO_2排放量较高的城市大多处于华北、东北以及华东沿海地区,西部地区城市CO_2排放量则较低。城市CO_2排放8个部门(工业能源、工业过程、农业、服务业、城镇生活、农村生活、交通、范围2排放)之间的相关性中,城镇生活和交通排放的相关性最高,并且呈现显著性(p0.001),工业过程排放和服务业排放的相关性最弱且没有显著性。基于中国高空间分辨率网格数据的中国城市CO_2排放数据集的不断完善和发展,为中国城市CO_2排放研究奠定了重要的数据基础,为城市CO_2排放横向比较和对标工作提供了重要依据。     

Economic growth and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions

This article considers a planner’s optimum control exercise with environmental pollution and derives a testable link between the growth rates of consumption and pollution. The link is then empirically estimated for the case of CO₂ emissions for a sample consisting of the union of top 25 countries in terms of CO₂ emissions, population and per capita GNP. The analysis suggests that the interrelationship between the growth rates of CO₂ emission and economic development is mostly significant for countries that have a high level of CO₂ emissions and population.     

中国城市温室气体清单研究

介绍城市温室气体排放特征和国际城市温室气体清单研究进展,研究了全球城市化和城市CO2排放的强正相关性,以及中国城市清单方法研究起步较早但发展缓慢的特点。分析了城市温室气体清单相对国家清单的特征,即城市清单编制往往采用消费模式,区别于国家清单的生产模式;国际城市清单中往往包括了由于外调电和供暖产生的CO2排放,同时城市温室气体清单编制灵活性和针对性更强。针对我国城市温室气体清单研究的不足,提出了我国城市温室气体清单方法,强调中国城市采用尺度1+尺度2的范围,暂不考虑尺度3的范围,即生产+消费的混合模式,并且在城市市域温室气体排放研究的基础上,加强狭义城市温室气体排放水平的研究。选择北京市和纽约市,对比分析了两个城市CO2排放特征,结果显示,在确定的清单体系下,北京市和纽约市具有较好的可比性。纽约市的总排放量(尺度1+尺度2)略低于北京市排放量,人均排放量略高于北京市。     

浙江省碳排放时空格局及影响因素研究

利用2005~2010年浙江省各县市区的社会经济数据和能耗数据,测算了各县市区的碳排放总量、人均碳排放量和地均碳排放量,采用空间自相关方法揭示了县域尺度下相邻县市区碳排放指标的空间关联性,运用地理加权回归模型定量描述了各县市区碳排放总量影响因素的空间异质性。研究结果表明:(1)研究期内,浙江省的碳排放总量从30 486万t增加到49 559万t。人均碳排放量和地均碳排放量也均呈增长趋势,且空间差异显著。(2)各县市区碳排放总量、人均碳排放量和地均碳排放量均存在较强的空间自相关性,总体上浙北浙东呈高高集聚,浙西南呈低低集聚。(3)人口和投资是影响碳排放总量的重要因素,且存在空间异质性。投资对浙西南碳排放的影响逐渐增大。     

Analysis of CO2 emissions peak: China’s objective and strategy

Establishing positive and urgent targets for CO₂ reduction and emission peak, and promoting energy conservation and energy structure adjustment are among the strategies to address global climate change and CO₂ emissions reduction. They are also means to break through the constraints of domestic resources and environment, and internal needs, to achieve sustainable development. Generally speaking, a country's CO₂ emission peak appears after achieving urbanization and industrialization. By then, connotative economic growth will appear, GDP will grow slowly, energy consumption elasticity will decrease, and energy consumption growth will slow down – dependent mainly on new and renewable energies. Fossil fuel consumption will not increase further. When CO₂ emission reaches its peak, the annual reduction rate of CO₂ intensity of GDP is greater than GDP annual growth rate; and the annual reduction rate of CO₂ intensity of energy use is greater than the annual growth rate of energy consumption. Therefore, three important approaches to promotion of CO₂ emission peak can be concluded: maintaining reasonable control of GDP growth, strengthening energy conservation to significantly reduce the GDP energy intensity, and optimizing the energy mix to reduce the CO₂ intensity of energy use. By around 2030, China will basically have completed its rapid development phase of industrialization and urbanization. Connotative economic growth will appear with the acceleration of industrial structure adjustment. The target of GDP energy intensity will still be to maintain an average annual reduction of 3% or higher. The proportion of non-fossil fuels will reach 20–25%, and the aim will be to maintain an average annual growth rate of 6–8%. The total annual energy demand growth of 1.5% will be satisfied by the newly increased supply of non-fossil fuels. The annual decline in CO₂ intensity of GDP will reach 4.5% or higher, which is compatible with an average annual GDP growth rate of approximately 4.5% in order to reach CO₂ emission peak. This corresponds to the level of China's potential economic growth. Achieving CO₂ emission peak will not impose a rigid constraint on economic development, but rather promote economic development and accelerate the transformation of green, low-carbon development. The CO₂ emission peak can be controlled with a cap of 11 billion tons, which means that CO₂ emission will increase by less than 50% compared with 2010. The per capita emission peak will be controlled at a level of less than 8 tons, which is lower than the 9.5 tons in the EU and Japan and much lower than the 20 tons in the US, future economic and social development faces many uncertainties in achieving the CO₂ emission peak discussed above. It depends on current and future strategies and policies, as well as the pace and strength of economic transformation, innovation, and new energy technologies. If the economic transformation pattern fails to meet expectations, the time required to reach CO₂ emission peak would be delayed and the peak level would be higher than expected. Therefore, we need to coordinate thoughts and ideas and deploy these in advance; to highlight the strategic position of low-carbon development and its priorities; to enact mid- to long-term energy development strategies; and to establish and improve a system of laws, regulations, and policies as well as an implementation mechanism for green, low-carbon development. Oriented by positive and urgent CO₂ reduction and peak targets, the government would form a reversed mechanism to promote economic transformation and embark on the path of green, low-carbon development as soon as possible.     

Difference among the Growth of GDP and Urbanization of the Provinces and the Cities in West China since the Reform and Opening-up

Since the reform and opening-up, the difference between the development of the west region and the other regions in China is increasing. In addition, the condition of the development of cities in west China needs amelioration. Developing conditions of the west provinces and its cities using economic barometers (e.g. gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita GDP) and urban population datum (e.g. urbanization level and city primary degree) have been analyzed in this article. Five indexes have been chosen to work on the development of the provinces, for example, the contribution degree of the increment in GDP, the contribution degree of the increment of per capita GDP, urbanization level, city primary degree, city primacy ratio. Conclusions are as follows. (1) The growth of the GDP and per capita GDP of the western provinces is in a poor way; moreover, it is not steady going. (2) The comparability among the characteristics of the urbanization level growth of the provinces is at a low level. (3) The urbanization levels of Inner Mongolia province and Sinkiang province are more-sensitive responders to the growth of per capita GDP, whereas those of Guangxi province and Tibet province are less-sensitive responders. (4) The urban population in most of the provinces are highly concentrated, which can be shown by city primary degrees and city primacy ratios. While working on these cities in west China, some earlier zone-organic cities are chosen as sample cities, and these cities are also analyzed using economic barometers and population datum. By analyzing the difference among the cities and comparing the research findings of Professor Zhou and the author, the following conclusions are made: (1) the growth of the GDP and per capita GDP of the cities are mostly not steady going; (2) the middle and big cities are more-sensitive responders to the growth of economy, whereas the small and mega cities are less-sensitive responders; (3) the sizes of southwest cities have a higher speed than those of northwest ones, and furthermore, the differences between them are still increasing.     

A laboratory study on CO2 emission from asphalt binder and its reduction with the use of warm mix asphalt

Oxidation of hydrocarbon in asphalt binder leads to the production of carbon dioxide (CO₂) during the production of hot mix asphalt. The objective of this laboratory study was to investigate the effects of the asphalt additive Sasobit^®, asphalt content and mixing/placement temperature on CO₂ emissions from binder with laboratory measurements. The isolated effects of Sasobit on asphalt absorption into the aggregate were also looked at. Temperature was found to be the only statistically significant factor on emissions. This would suggest that warm mix asphalt technology, which employs the use of Sasobit in asphalt mixtures, is a very effective way of lowering the industry's CO₂ emission impact, both directly and by the use of less energy for heating. This work predicts that greater than 30% reduction of CO₂ emissions is possible with typically used levels of Sasobit.     

江苏省沿海地区经济发展与碳排放相关性研究

与能源结构和能源效率因素相比,经济发展对人均碳排放的影响最为显著.以江苏省沿海地区能源消费情况为基础,研究得出地区碳排放、人均碳排放,并且1999-2008年该地区碳排放量与人均碳排放量的增加趋势一致.选取人均GDP来代表经济增长数据,人均CO2排放代表碳排放数据,借助环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)模型来分析江苏省沿海地区经济发展与CO2排放之间的关系和演变态势.根据环境库兹涅茨曲线研究江苏省沿海地区经济发展与人均碳排放之间的关系,相关性研究结果表明,最优拟合模型中参数α0为0.245 7,α1为3.658 14e-5,α2为1.318 32e-8,α3为-3.298 09e-13,所以根据模型设定判断得出:1999-2008年间江苏省沿海地区人均碳排放置和人均GDP并不符合标准的环境库兹涅茨曲线(倒U型)关系,而是表现为三次方曲线模型.同时,依据人均碳排放量的变化特征,将江苏省沿海地区人均碳排放分为两个阶段:1999-2006年,人均碳排放量随着经济的增长持续增加;2006-2008年人均碳排放量随经济增加趋势变缓.     

Assessment of uncertainties in greenhouse gas emission profiles of livestock sectors in Africa,Latin America and Europe

The global animal food chain has a large contribution to the global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but its share and sources vary highly across the world. However, the assessment of GHG emissions from livestock production is subject to various uncertainties, which have not yet been well quantified at large spatial scale. We assessed the uncertainties in the relations between animal production (milk, meat, egg) and the CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O emissions in Africa, Latin America and the European Union, using the MITERRA-Global model. The uncertainties in model inputs were derived from time series of statistical data, literature review or expert knowledge. These model inputs and parameters were further divided into nine groups based on type of data and affected greenhouse gas. The final model output uncertainty and the uncertainty contribution of each group of model inputs to the uncertainty were quantified using a Monte Carlo approach, taking into account their spatial and cross-correlation. GHG emissions and their uncertainties were determined per livestock sector, per product and per emission source category. Results show large variation in the GHG emissions and their uncertainties for different continents, livestock sectors products or source categories. The uncertainty of total GHG emissions from livestock sectors is higher in Africa and Latin America than in the European Union. The uncertainty of CH₄ emission is lower than that for N₂O and CO₂. Livestock parameters, CH₄ emission factors and N emission factors contribute most to the uncertainty in the total model output. The reliability of GHG emissions from livestock sectors is relatively high (low uncertainty) at continental level, but could be lower at country level.     

Greenhouse gas emissions from a semi-arid tropical reservoir in northeastern Brazil

We estimated carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) emissions by diffusion, ebullition, and degassing in turbines from a semi-arid hydropower reservoir in northeastern Brazil. Sampling sites were allocated within the littoral and deeper waters of one embayment, the main-stream, and at turbines. Annual carbon emissions were estimated at 2.3?×?10⁵?±?7.45?×?10⁴ t C year^?1, or in CO₂-equivalents (CO₂-eq) at 1.33?×?10⁶?±?4.5?×?10⁵ t CO₂-eq year^?1. Diffusion across the water surface was the main pathway accounting for 96% of total carbon emissions. Ebullition was limited to littoral areas. A slight accumulation of CO₂, but not of CH₄, in bottom waters close to the turbines inlet led to degassing emissions about 8?×?10³ t C year^?1. Emissions in littoral areas were higher than in main-stream and contribute to 40% of the total carbon. Carbon (C) emissions per electricity generated, at 60% of installed capacity, is 0.05 t C-CO₂-eq MWh^?1. The ratio increases to 0.09 t C-CO₂ MWh^?1, equating 80% of the emissions from natural gas and 40% of diesel or coal power plants. Retention time and benthic metabolism were identified as main drivers for carbon emissions in littoral areas, while water column mixing and rapid water flow are important factors preventing CH₄ accumulation and loss by degassing. Our results indicate that Itaparica Reservoir, located in the semi-arid region of Northeastern Brazil, acts as a source of GHGs. Management measurements are needed to prevent emissions to raise in the future.     

How developing countries can engage in GHG reduction: a case study for China

It has been clearly recognized that future global climate change will limit the possibilities for sustainable development in China. To minimize these negative effects, as a practical strategy, we suggest that the Chinese government engage in international cooperation as a key contributor in the prevention of global warming. This suggestion results from numerical estimations of China’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends accompanied with economic growth up to 2100. The results show that China’s gross domestic product (GDP), measured in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), may overtake the sum of the GDPs of the United States and Canada in 2020. It is predicted that GDP per capita may reach US$20,000 and $80,000 in 2050 and 2100, respectively; meanwhile, CO₂ emissions in China will increase from 6.6 billion tons (in carbon equivalent units) in 1990 to 54.6 billion tons in 2100. This means that the global peak concentration of GHG cannot be practically reduced without significant contributions from China. For international cooperation in mitigating global climate change, we introduce a new option, “per-capita emission restricted by assigned amount,” as an accounting rule for GHG reduction. This baseline classifies global CO₂ reduction actions into three categories: compulsory reduction, self-imposed reduction, and voluntary reduction. We suggest that China contribute to world CO₂ reduction according to the following timetable: voluntary reduction until 2012, self-imposed reduction until 2020, and compulsory reduction from 2020. The simulation results also indicate that China can benefit from this strategy in terms of improvements in its domestic economy and environment, for instance, by reducing fossil fuel consumption and the emission of pollutants.

Agricultural GHG emission and calorie intake nexus among different socioeconomic households of rural eastern India

A study was conducted to examine the interrelationships among socioeconomic factors, household consumption patterns, calorie intake and greenhouse gas emissions factors in rural eastern India based on household survey data. Findings indicated that higher monthly per capita incomes (12.1–80.1$) were associated with greater average calorie intakes (2021–2525 kcal d^?1). As estimated by the FEEDME model, in total 17.2% of the population was calorie malnourished with a regional disparity of 29.4–18.2% malnourishment. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were calculated only on the basis of crop and livestock production and consumption. Rice accounted for the highest share of total GHG emissions, on average 82.6% on a production basis, which varied from 58.1% to 94.9% in regional basis. Rice contributed the greatest share (~?65% and 66.2%) in terms of both calories and GHG emissions (CO₂ eq y^?1), respectively, on a consumption basis. We conclude that extensive rice farming and increasing animal product consumption are dominant factors in the higher carbon footprint in this region and are likely to further increase with increase in per capita income. This study provides useful information to help for better crop planning and for fine-tuning food access policy, to reduce carbon footprint and calorie malnutrition.

     

A subsystem input–output decomposition analysis of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions in the service sectors: a case study of Beijing,China

The carbon emissions in service sectors have attracted increasing attention around the world. However, few studies have examined the driving forces for CO₂ emissions from service sectors in developing countries. With the process of accelerating industrialization, China’s service sectors are facing growing pressure to pursue energy savings and emission reductions, especially in several developed regions. In this paper, in order to better understand how CO₂ emissions in Beijing’s service sectors have evolved, we utilized a subsystem input–output decomposition analysis to study the pattern and driving factors of consumption-based emissions in Beijing’s service sectors. The results showed that the transportation sector and the Scientific Studies Technical Services sector caused the most CO₂ emissions in Beijing’s service sectors. The emission intensity effect potentially reduced CO₂ emissions by 10,833 Mt, primarily due to the decreased energy intensity of non-service sectors. Effects of demand and technology were mainly responsible for the increased CO₂ emissions in Beijing’s service sectors. Such influence was mainly related to the external component of service sectors, indicating a strong pull effect exerted by service sectors on non-service sectors. Thus, decarbonizing the supply chain of service sectors and improving the energy intensity are necessary to alleviate CO₂ emissions in Beijing.     

Dynamic Changes,Regional Differences,and Influencing Factors of CO2 Emission Performance in China

Abstract

This paper proposes to use DEA models with undesirable outputs to construct the Malmquist index that can be use to investigate the dynamic changes of CO₂ emission performance. With the index, the authors have measured the CO₂ emission performance of 28 provinces and autonomous regions in China from 1996 to 2007; with the convergence theory and panel data regression model, the authors analyze the regional differences and the influencing factors. It is found that the performance of CO₂ emissions in China has been continuously improved mainly due to the technological progress, and the average improvement rate is 3.25%, with a cumulative improvement rate of 40.86%. In addition, the CO₂ emission performance varies across four regions. As a whole, the performance score of eastern China is the highest. The northeastern and central China has relatively lower performance scores, and the western China is relatively backward. The regional differences are decreasing, and the performance of CO₂ emissions is convergent. The influence of some factors on the performance of CO₂ emissions is significant, such as the level of economic development, the level of industrial structure, energy intensity, and ownership structure. The influence of some factors, such as opening-up to the outside world, on the performance of CO₂ emissions is not significant.     

中国城市产业结构与CO_2排放的耦合关系

产业结构与CO_2排放量之间的相互作用形成产业结构与CO_2排放量的耦合关系。本文基于2012年中国1 km高空间分辨率网格CO_2排放数据(CHRED),运用耦合度模型,分析了中国288个城市产业结构与CO_2排放量的耦合特征。研究发现,中国产业结构和CO_2排放量之间正处于中度耦合一致性阶段,以资源型为主的城市产业结构和CO_2排放量处于极度耦合一致性阶段;工业型城市耦合度和一致性均高于服务业型城市;其他类型城市则分布比较分散没有呈现一定的规律性,而在其他类型的城市中,工业占比相对较高的城市耦合度和一致性往往高于农业和服务业占比较高的城市。根据产业结构和CO_2排放量的耦合度和一致性关系,将现有的城市分为4种类型,分别是产业结构与CO_2排放耦合一致性相关关系极强的城市,产业结构与CO_2排放耦合一致性相关关系较高的城市、产业结构和CO_2排放耦合一致性相关关系一般的城市以及产业结构和CO_2排放耦合一致性相关关系较弱的城市。通过对4种类型城市进行特征分析,4种类型城市在空间分布上具有明显的聚集效应,而且第二产业与碳排放之间的耦合一致性较高。     

江苏省13城市1996～2008年碳排放时空变异分析

运用秩相关系数、变差系数、曲线拟合等方法，以市域为基本单元，以人均碳排放量、碳排放强度、脱钩指数等为指标，对江苏省1996～2008年的碳排放时空变异特征进行分析，研究得出：(1)近13 a来，江苏省碳排放量不断增加，年均增长率高达13%，2008年已达20 000万t；经济较发达城市人均碳排放量较大，但碳排放强度相对不大；经济落后城市人均碳排放量小，但碳排放强度增加较快。(2)江苏省13城市人均碳排放、碳排放强度差异在不断缩小。(3)从人均碳排放看，江苏省及各市人均碳排放都随人均GDP呈线性增加关系，而南京、苏州、扬州、徐州作为各个区域发展较好的中心城市，人均碳排放随人均GDP增加最快。(4)从碳排放强度看，江苏省碳排放强度与人均GDP呈倒U型曲线关系，其拐点在人均GDP 25万元左右；但是各个城市碳排放强度与人均GDP呈波浪型曲线关系。(5)从脱钩指数看，脱钩水平受经济政策、产业结构、清洁技术水平的影响较大     

CO2 emissions in German, Swedish and Colombian manufacturing industries

This study evaluates and compares the trends in CO₂ emissions for the manufacturing industries of three countries: two developed countries (Germany and Sweden) that have applied several measures to promote a shift towards a low-carbon economy and one developing country (Colombia) that has shown substantial improvements in the reduction of CO₂ emissions. This analysis is conducted using panel data cointegration techniques to infer causality between CO₂ emissions, production factors and energy sources. The results indicate a trend of producing more output with less pollution. The trends for these countries’ CO₂ emissions depend on investment levels, energy sources and economic factors. Furthermore, the trends in CO₂ emissions indicate that there are emission level differences between the two developed countries and the developing country. Moreover, the study confirms that it is possible to achieve economic growth and sustainable development while reducing greenhouse gas emissions, as Germany and Sweden demonstrate. In the case of Colombia, it is important to encourage a reduction in CO₂ emissions through policies that combine technical and economic instruments and incentivise the application of new technologies that promote clean and environmentally friendly processes.     

Effects decomposition: separation of carbon emissions decoupling and decoupling effort in aggregated EU-15

The ecological burden of economic growth is a highly discussed issue. In this article, we focus on the set of European Union (EU) 15 countries in the period 1995–2014. We first decomposed emissions into six effects and afterward the decoupling-effort index was used to calculate the magnitude of impact that each factor has on it, considering the country group. For the group of the EU-15 in the pre-Kyoto period, CO₂ changes are only negative in 1998 and 1999 considering the initial view (with respect to the base year of 1995), being positive for all the other years. This positive effect means increased emissions, for which many contributed the positive and significant effects of income per capita and the population effects. The most significant reductions in CO₂ changes are verified in the years after the effective Kyoto commitment and observed mainly in the alternative view (year to year changes), for which many contributed the negative and significant effects of carbon intensity of petroleum products, energy intensity and conversion efficiency in the overall period. The effects elasticity decoupling and decoupling effort do not seem to be controlled by the internal drivers of CO₂ emissions. Policy makers should bet in policy instruments pointed in the sense of strengthening energy efficiency, in reducing petroleum products consumption and therefore dependency and on the structure of added value generated by the economy.     

The Rate of Carbon Dioxide Emission into the Atmosphere from a Southern Karelian Mesooligotrophic Bog

Carbon dioxide exchange in the intact and reclaimed sites of a woodless mesooligotrophic dwarf shrub–cotton grass–sphagnum bog was studied in field experiments. The average values of gross respiration in the ecosystem over the warm period (including respiration of plant cover, CO₂emission from peat, and CO₂flow from the litter) were 3.17 and 6.11 g CO₂/m²per day in the natural and drained sites, respectively.