Climate Change Responsibility and China’s Endeavor

The problem of climate change is a global challenge.It is closely associated with social development and human survival,and it has a significant impact to all countries on energy development,economic competitiveness,technological innovation,and way of life.In recent years,with the rapid economic development in China,there is a rumor that the rapid growth of China’s carbon dioxide emission offset the efforts of the international community in reducing emissions,and China should bear the international responsibility corresponding to its significant role in greenhouse gas emission,which obviously are unfair and not objective.As this paper reveals,"China environment responsibility" that is the socalled "China environment threat" or theories,China has made a positive contribution to addressing the climate change in the past and China will still be the backbone on the protection of global climate in the future.     

Climate Change Responsibility and China＇s Endeavor

The problem of climate change is a global challenge. It is closely associated with social development and human survival, and it has a significant impact to all countries on energy develop- ment, economic competitiveness, technological innovation, and way of life. In recent years, with the rapid economic development in China, there is a rumor that the rapid growth of China＇s carbon dioxide emission offset the efforts of the international community in reducing emissions, and China should bear the international responsibility corresponding to its significant role in greenhouse gas emission, which obviously are unfair and not objective. As this paper reveals, ＂China environment responsibility＂ that is the socalled ＂China environment threat＂ or theories, China has made a positive contribution to addressing the climate change in the past and China will still be the backbone on the protection of global climate in the future.     

Technological Progress,Structural Change and China''s Energy Efficiency

China has witnessed rapid economic development since 1978, and during the time, energy production and consumption developed at a tremendous speed as well. Energy efficiency which can be measured by energy consumption per unit of GDP, however, experienced continuous decrease. Theoretically, the change of energy efficiency can be attributed to industry structural change and technological change. In order to explain the transformation of Chinese energy efficiency, we adopt logarithmic mean Divisia index techni...     

China’s Export Expansion, Export Structure and Energy Consumption

Since the reform and opening up,China’s export trade has maintained a rapid growth;meanwhile,China’s energy consumption has been increasing sharply. "High export and high energy consumption" has become the feature of China’s trade and economic development.In this paper,based on the input-output analysis approach,the authors have conducted an empirical study on the export trade and energy consumption of 21 trade industrial sectors.The results show that,China is a big net exporter of embodied energy.Assuming that the export growth rate of embodied energy maintains to be about 23.6%,the average annual growth rate of the past 32 years,and based on the input-output data of 2005,by 2030 China’s net export of embodied energy would be over eight times more than the aggregate energy production,which is obviously infeasible.As a country of very low per capita energy,China must change its export pattern,encourage or restrain the export of different industrial sectors according to their energy consumption intensity,and promote structural change of energy-efficient exported products,so as to achieve the sustainable development.Accordingly,the authors put forward some suggestions.     

China＇s Export Expansion, Export Structure and Energy Consumption

Since the reform and opening up, China＇s export trade has maintained a rapid growth; meanwhile, China＇s energy consumption has been increasing sharply. ＂High export and high energy consumption＂ has become the feature of China＇s trade and economic development. In this paper, based on the input-output analysis approach, the authors have conducted an empirical study on the export trade and energy consumption of 21 trade industrial sectors. The results show that, China is a big net exporter of embodied energy. Assuming that the export growth rate of embodied energy maintains to be about 23.6%, the average annual growth rate of the past 32 years, and based on the input-output data of 2005, by 2030 China＇s net export of embodied energy would be over eight times more than the aggregate energy production, which is obviously infeasible. As a country of very low per capita en- ergy, China must change its export pattern, encourage or restrain the export of different industrial sectors according to their energy consumption intensity, and promote structural change of energy- efficient exported products, so as to achieve the sustainable development. Accordingly, the authors put forward some suggestions.     

China’s Export Expansion,Export Structure and Energy Consumption

Abstract

Since the reform and opening up, China’s export trade has maintained a rapid growth; meanwhile, China’s energy consumption has been increasing sharply. “High export and high energy consumption” has become the feature of China’s trade and economic development. In this paper, based on the input–output analysis approach, the authors have conducted an empirical study on the export trade and energy consumption of 21 trade industrial sectors. The results show that, China is a big net exporter of embodied energy. Assuming that the export growth rate of embodied energy maintains to be about 23.6%, the average annual growth rate of the past 32 years, and based on the input–output data of 2005, by 2030 China’s net export of embodied energy would be over eight times more than the aggregate energy production, which is obviously infeasible. As a country of very low per capita energy, China must change its export pattern, encourage or restrain the export of different industrial sectors according to their energy consumption intensity, and promote structural change of energy– efficient exported products, so as to achieve the sustainable development. Accordingly, the authors put forward some suggestions.     

Technological Progress,Structural Change and China’s Energy Efficiency

Abstract

China has witnessed rapid economic development since 1978, and during the time, energy production and consumption developed at a tremendous speed as well. Energy efficiency which can be measured by energy consumption per unit of GDP, however, experienced continuous decrease. Theoretically, the change of energy efficiency can be attributed to industry structural change and technological change. In order to explain the transformation of Chinese energy efficiency, we adopt logarithmic mean Divisia index techniques to decompose changes in energy intensity in the period of 1994–2005. We find that technological change is the dominant contributor in the decline of energy intensity, but the contribution has declined since 2001. The change in industry structure has decreased the energy intensity before 1998, but raised the intensity after 1998. Decomposed technological effects for all sectors indicate that technological progresses in high energy consuming industries such as raw chemical materials and chemical products, smelting and pressing of ferrous metals, manufacture of non-metallic mineral products and household contribute are the principal drivers of China’s declining energy intensity.     

西部中小城市低碳城市规划的实践和思考——以四川省广元市为例

我国快速城市化面临全球气候变化的巨大挑战。城市作为CO2的高排放区,节能减排将对我国的城市发展模式与格局产生深远影响。本文以四川广元市为例,首先综述低碳城市规划的内涵,然后探讨广元市低碳城市规划的框架体系及各组成要素,并总结广元市低碳城市规划过程中遇到的挑战和问题。文章认为:西部中小城市低碳城市规划是我国低碳城市发展战略的重要组成部分,是促进西部城市转变发展模式、推进西部大开发的重要保障。     

中国碳排放变动的因素分解分析

随着中国经济的快速发展,能源消费的急剧增长以及以煤为主的能源结构在短期内难以改变,中国一次能源消费的碳排放总量不断增长.本文基于广义费雪指数(GFI)方法,建立中国人均碳排放的因素分解模型,定量分析 2000-2008年间,能源结构、能源效率和经济发展等因素的变化对中国人均碳排放的影响.该方法较之拉氏指数和D氏指数分解法,克服了它们的缺点,更好的消除了分解的残差项,得到的结果更加精确.分析表明:经济发展对拉动中国人均碳排放的贡献率呈指数增长,而能源效率对抑制中国人均碳排放的贡献率呈倒“U”型,并且其抑制作用当前有增强趋势,能源结构的抑制作用依然微弱.能源效率和能源结构对碳排放的抑制作用难以抵消由经济发展拉动的中国人均碳排放量增长.本文得到当前能源效率因素对碳排放的抑制作用正逐渐增强,而能源结构因素对碳排放的抑制作用依然微弱,这与以往的结果不同.为了考察各种因素对中国能源消费碳排放影响的长期规律性,本文首次拟合了各种影响因素的瞬时变化率特征,进一步反映出各影响因素的动态演进过程.     

中国的能源发展与应对气候变化

我国当前经济社会发展既受到资源环境的瓶颈性制约,也受到全球应对气候变化、减缓碳排放的严峻挑战.我国大力推进节能和减缓CO2排放,GDP的CO2强度下降速度为世界瞩目,但由于工业化阶段GDP快速增长,CO2排放仍呈增长快、总量大的趋势.我国把国内可持续发展与全球应对气候变化相协调,实现绿色、低碳发展.加强产业结构的战略性调整,进行产业升级,促进结构节能；大力推广节能技术,淘汰落后产能,提高能源效率;积极发展新能源和可再生能源,优化能源结构,降低能源结构的含碳率,中近期以大幅度降低GDP的能源强度和CO2强度为主要目标,到2030年前后要努力使CO2排放达到峰值,到2050年再有较大幅度的下降,以适应全球控制温升不超过2℃长期减排目标下国际合作应对气候变化的进程和形势.“十二五”期间将进一步强化措施,进行能源消费总量控制,建立CO2排放统计、核算和考核体系,积极推进碳交易市场机制,这也将成为加快转变经济发展方式的重要着力点.     

中国的生态足迹与绿色发展

从2008年开始,世界自然基金会(WWF)与中国环境与发展国际合作委员会(国合会)联合,通过与国内外智库的合作引入"生态足迹"理念,从自然资源消耗与"生物承载力"之间关系的角度来研究中国经济发展所面临的资源环境问题。研究表明,2007年人类在消耗着1.5个地球。过去半个世纪以来,中国的生态足迹总量2007年已经是1961年的4倍,尽管中国的人均生态足迹水平仍然低于世界平均水平,但是已经突破了1个地球的均衡水平。与全球平均类似,中国生态足迹中最主要的组成部分是碳足迹,占54%。解决中国的生态足迹超支问题,关键是降低碳足迹。目前,中国的能源供给仍然高度依赖于化石能源,超过一半的能源供给来自于煤炭,中国和世界其它国家一样将面临化石能源枯竭问题。中国作为一个处于经济快速发展过程中的能耗大国,应及时调整产业结构和基础设施供给模式,在积极应对气候变化的同时提前应对自身可能面临的能源问题。中国所面临的现实决定了中国不能重复发达国家的高增长高资源消耗的老路,需要转变经济发展方式,发展绿色经济,为全球走向可持续发展道路提供探索的机会。     

Global trends and development of energy services industry in China

Energy service is an effective way to promote energy conservation by market mechanisms, including energy saving services, energy procurement, supply of many varieties of energy, supply of renewable energy technologies, energy-related consulting services, risk management, etc. China is a major energy consumer but energy is in short supply, and the efficiency of energy use is low. China’s energy service industry has expanded rapidly, in terms of both the number of new Energy Service Companies entering the market and amount of capital invested in Energy Performance Contracting projects, but the energy service sector in China is still at an early stage of development. Developed countries began early in developing the energy service sector and their energy service market is mature, and the experience of developed countries shows that energy services play a significant role in advancing energy saving and emission reduction. Under the new situation, China needs combine energy services experience of developed countries, and take following measures to accelerate China’s energy services rapid and healthy development, including the long-term aspects of policy planning, energy-saving core technology, finance and capital investment, public sector reductions, personnel training, and so on.     

可再生能源发展情景设计及评价研究

通过对当前主要的情景设计及评价方法的研究,认为目前我国可再生能源发展迅速,但初期的部分基本工作尚未完成.尤其是可再生能源的供给潜力及其经济可开发性评价.基于此,提出一种基于动态成本曲线的可再生能源发展战略情景仿真模型.动态成本曲线生成的基本原理是在静态成本曲线基础上,考虑技术进步、可再生能源外部价值对静态成本曲线的影响,从而生成不同时期的可再生能源成本曲线,进而构成可再生能源动态成本曲线.考虑不同种类可再生能源技术进步水平、外部环境价值的变化,设计不同的可再生能源发展情景.基于可再生能源动态成本曲线,并对不同的可再生能源发展情景下的投资成本、能源效益、经济效益和社会效益进行了综合评价.最后通过一个案例,分四种情景,即不考虑技术进步,低环境方案情景;不考虑技术进步,高环境方案情景;考虑技术进步,低环境方案情景;考虑技术进步,高环境方案情景;分别给出了四种情景下的装机总量、投资总额、创造就业、污染物和温室气体减排量.     

城市工业部门脱钩分析

节能减排是我国应对能源短缺与全球变暖两大环境热点问题的基本国策。目前国家已经制定了一系列节能减排目标并分解落实到地区与行业执行。城市是人类生产和生活的中心,快速城市化带来了人口、能源消费和碳排放的激增。工业部门在城市经济发展和能源消费中占据着重要地位,因此成为节能减排工作的重点对象。重庆市对西部地区的发展有着重要的意义,目前在工业化进程中面临着巨大的节能减排压力。本文以重庆市为案例对象,应用脱钩分析方法研究了该市各工业部门经济增长、能源消耗和碳排放之间的关联特征,并提出脱钩稳定性指标用以评价脱钩状态的波动情况。结果表明:重庆市工业部门能源消费品种单一,对煤炭依赖性过大;高能耗部门虽然表现为弱脱钩,且脱钩稳定性高,但能耗强度和碳排放强度偏大,远高于工业部门的平均水平;部分中低能耗部门由于生产技术相对落后和关键节能减排技术缺失造成能源利用效率参差不齐和碳排放水平不稳定。依据研究结果本文提出重庆市工业部门节能减排的实施建议。     

中国可再生能源政策演化、效果评估与未来展望

发展可再生能源已成为中国能源转型及减缓气候变化的关键途径。2006年《可再生能源法》实施至今,中国可再生发展取得举世瞩目成绩。然而可再生能源在中国整个能源结构中的占比仍然偏低,其未来可持续发展仍面临挑战,如可再生能源发展资金缺口持续扩大,可再生能源电力消纳仍然面临一定障碍。在未来新的发展背景下,有必要对中国可再生能源政策进行系统的评估和总结,进一步探讨未来可再生能源政策的优化方案。本文首先对中国2005—2019年可再生能源政策的发展历程及演化路径进行总结梳理,基于不同时期的发展特点及面临的主要矛盾将中国可再生能源政策历程划分为四个阶段;然后在综述相关研究基础上,对中国可再生能源政策的实施效果进行评估,包括政策有效性、政策成本、技术进步等。结果表明,中国过去十年的可再生能源政策对促进可再生能源快速发展是积极有效的,而促进可再生能源发展的政策成本仍然有进一步下降的空间;另外,虽然中国可再生能源发电成本下降显著,然而基于历史经验的技术进步率仍然不足以支撑实现中国2020年平价上网的目标,未来需要进一步推动可再生能源技术的进步和发电成本的下降。结合当前及未来中国可再生能源发展所处阶段的特点及面临挑战,我们提出进一步完善中国可再生能源政策以促进可再生能源持续稳定发展的政策建议,一是完善可再生能源绿色电力证书交易制度,增强可再生能源发展的内生激励并降低政策实施成本;二是建立储能技术市场机制,为减少弃电以及推动可再生能源消纳提供政策支持;三是推进碳金融体系建设,为可再生能源发展提供新的融资来源并降低发电成本。     

An in-depth view of climate change:addressing climate change while making a transition on the development mode

While fossil fuels greatly contribute to human society,they pose great challenges to natural resources,the environment,and climate change.Developed countries,like the United States,formulated strategic measures to ensure their sustainable development and leading positions in the world.These measures include new green policies,development of shale gas,revitalization of nuclear power,energy independence,reindustrialization,and new low-carbon development based on a combination of Internet technology and renewable energy.Developing countries are also trying to introduce balanced strategies of poverty alleviation and sustainable development.Globally,industrial civilization is being transformed to ecological civilization and green,low-carbon development is a global trend.Addressing climate change provides new strategic factors to further this development.China should take substantial actions to realize sustainable development in a new road:China is in the critical stage of changing its development mode,so it is vital to choose an appropriate development path.This extensive development comes at the high price of consuming too much resources and scarring the environment.Mitigation and adaptation strategies for addressing climate change can help the transition of development.Based on the analysis of the development data of developed countries,the author introduces the concept of"two-type developed countries"with an understanding that not all developed countries must take the same development mode.He also holds the view that China should achieve modernization in a more energy-saving and more carbon-efficient manner compared with that of two-type developed countries.An analysis of"two competitions"that China is facing shows that changing the developing mode is urgent and China should grasp this opportunity in the next five to ten years,which is a key period for this transition.This paper discusses the low-carbon development goals and the three-step process.Low-carbon development does not necessarily restrict economic development.It,however,can expedite the transition of the development mode and this is a low-carbon and green development path.Transition of the development mode includes implementation of China’s green and low-carbon energy strategies,low-carbon society construction,development of agriculture and forestry,garbage sorting and utilization,innovation of urbanization,etc.Improvement of national infrastructure construction includes water safety,environment and climate monitoring system,intelligent energy web,basic database,etc.Addressing climate change can significantly improve the nation’s basic research level.In summary,it mitigates backward production capability,extensive development,and environmental damage while promoting technological advancement,scientific development,and ecological civilization.     

Actively Dealing with Climate Change and Striving to Strengthen the Capability of Sustainable Development

Either from the perspective of the finite supply capacity of global resources and energy,or from the perspective of global environment restrictive conditions,developing countries can not repeat the old development road of developed countries,either in view of the international pressure China is currently facing,or in view of China’s own resources endowment and stages of development,we must actively face such a challenge of climate change.We must recognize that the issue of climate change may be a great restraint to the present and future eco-social development,and may also be an important driving force and new opportunity to push forward the transformation of development pattern,to take a new road of industrialization and to realize sustainable development.This demands us,on the one hand,to take the Scientific Outlook of Development as the guide to make efforts to control the emission of greenhouse gases and continuously increase the capability of adapting to climatic change,and set up the overall plan to respond to climate change of our country,and on the other hand,we should unswervingly take the road of sustainable development,save energy,optimize energy structure and strengthen biological protection in slowing and adapting to climate change.     

基于工业化视角的能源效率评价方法与实证研究

节能减排潜力的准确评估依赖于对能源效率的科学评价,而能源效率评价又涉及到能源与经济发展的关系问题。20世纪90年代以来,中国的工业化一直处于快速推进阶段,对能源依赖较强的高耗能行业成为经济增长的主要推动力。因此,中国工业化进程中的能源效率评价必须结合工业化背景下的经济增长理论与实践。与单要素能源效率方法相比,全要素能源效率方法及多目标情形下的能源效率评价模型是评价工业化经济体能源效率的一个较好分析框架。该分析框架以工业化、经济增长为背景,以生产函数为依托,不仅可以比较准确地衡量重要经济变量不断变化条件下能源与其他要素之间的替代效应,而且可以反映出一个国家或地区在特定经济发展阶段、要素禀赋结构以及经济激励机制下能源使用的综合水平,使评价结果更符合中国正处于工业化过程的经济现实。在该分析框架的基础上,结合工业行业面板数据,对中国工业部门的能源效率进行了实证测算。     

Energy revolution:for a sustainable future

The discovery and use of fossil fuels have not only helped the evolution of human society from agricultural civilization to industrial civilization,but also caused serious environmental and climate problems.The earth is calling for a sustainable future,and a change from industrial civilization to ecological civilization based on the new"energy revolution".A macroscopic quantitative analysis of China’s environmental capacity and climate capacity shows that China is in urgent need of changing the extensive developing mode and having an energy revolution.It is foreseeable that fossil fuels will remain the most consumed source of energies in China now and in the next few decades.Although the efficient and clean use of fossil fuels are very important,this is not an energy revolution or the fundamental solution to environmental and climate problems.Unconventional gases including shale gas play an important role in the mitigation of environmental problems and climate change,but"shale gas revolution"or"shale gas era"is not suitable to China since the proportion of natural gas in primary energy structure in China can only be increased by a maximum of 20%.The transition of Chinese energy structure from fossil-fuels-dominating stage to multiple-energy-sources stage and then to a nonfossil-fuels-dominating stage is the inevitable future,with the help of great contribution from renewable energy and nuclear energy.Among renewable energies,the proportion of non-hydro renewable energies will gradually increase.Improvement of their market competitiveness(economic efficiency)relies on technological innovation.Renewable energies will be the main energy source for the earth in future.Despite the impact of the Fukushima nuclear disaster,the whole world,including China,will not give up nuclear energy development.Safe,steady,and large-scale development of nuclear power is a rational choice of China.Transition from nuclear fission power plant to nuclear fusion power plant is the inevitable future.Nuclear energy will be a sustainable energy source and another main energy source of the earth in future.China needs to enhance energy security consciousness,promote energy saving,and change the energy supply-demand patterns,that is the transition from"meet a too-fast-growing demand with an extensive supply"to"meet a reasonable demand with a rational supply".All countries need to work together to address global environmental problems and climate change.Energy revolution is the foundation for a sustainable future.With a wide range of international cooperation,the win-win cooperation is the only way of overcoming these challenges.     

中日韩循环经济政策比较研究

在中国经济迅猛发展的同时，投资主导型的经济模式中环境保护要素的缺失导致我国工业化发展旱、中期的资源、能源约束、效率低下和浪费严重。在我国实施循环经济刻不容缓。循环经济政策是依据不同的社会、经济和环境条件而制定的。由于历史的原因，中日韩三国在地缘关系、政治传统、风俗习惯、文化教育等内在制度和外在制度彼此趋同，反映在循环经济政策的制定、执行上也有某些相似的地方。对三国循环经济的历史和现状进行比较研究，得出有益于我国的经验，无疑具有很重大的现实意义。采用制度变迁的基本理论作为指导，运用历史研究法、调查研究法等方法进行研究，对中日韩循环经济政策演变的历程进行系统梳理和比较，深入全面地考量其指导思想和举措的选择动机，系统广泛地从多方面研究中日韩循环经济政策。并将三者加以比较，以得出对我国循环经济的发展具有较强借鉴意义的经验，更好地推进循环经济在我国的发展。