试论生态功能保护区适应气候变化的对策

2013年,中国政府发布《国家适应气候变化战略》,意味着适应气候变化已被提高到国家战略层面。本研究基于对我国生态功能保护区适应气候变化上存在的资金支持、工程实施机制、产业机构等问题的现状和成因分析,就生态功能保护区适应气候变化提出了建议:一是建立稳定的生态功能保护区适应气候变化资金渠道;二是提高适应与经济增长、生态保护、社会发展的协调性,推进新型城镇化建设促进有利于适应气候变化的产业调整;三是提高生态功能保护区适应政策的主流化程度和针对性;四是提高生态功能保护区居民的自适应和主动适应能力。     

中澳适应气候变化比较研究

气候变化对中澳两国均是面临的严峻挑战,适应气候变化已成为两国的迫切任务之一。本研究主要比较了中澳两国在适应气候变化领域的机制安排、政策与行动,并选择敏感脆弱的水资源领域为研究分析对象。基于对比研究,本文提出几点政策建议：一是加强国际合作,提高应对气候变化能力;二是推进适应气候变化综合管理决策能力建设,努力构建适应气候变化的创新管理机制;三是尽快建立适应气候变化的专项基金;四是推动地方适应气候变化能力建设;五是学习澳大利亚将气候变化风险和适应气候变化纳入与水资源保护和水环境管理相关的基础设施工程项目环境影响评价的实践经验,开展相关研究和试点。     

应对气候挑战，加快适应气候变化主流化进程

适应气候变化作为一项现实紧迫的任务,越来越受到国际社会的广泛关注,在国际谈判方面,近几年的UNFCCC缔约方大会已将其列为重要议题,而且也是发达国家和发展中国家两大阵营最容易达成共识的议题;在国家和区域层面,现阶段许多国家和地区已制定相应的适应战略、计划或行动方案在不断加强自身适应气候变化的能力建设;在管理手段或政策工具上,一些国家和地区机关和多边开发银行已经检验了把气候变化影响和适应纳入EIA的内容中的可能性。在中国的应对气候变化工作中,适应仍处于边缘地位。     

中国适应气候变化国家战略定位的初步探讨

由于生态环境脆弱、海岸线漫长、人均资源占有量低等基本国情的现实制约,中国极易受到气候变化的不利影响.这决定了中国必须把适应气候变化尽快列入政府议事日程,制定并实施适应气候变化的国家战略(简称适应战略),通过国际合作与自身努力,尽量消减气候变化对国民经济、社会发展、人民生活的不利影响.     

北京市水资源领域适应气候变化对策及保障措施探讨

气候变化问题日益凸显。应对和适应气候变化刻不容缓。然而,短期内无法有效减缓气候变化产生的不利影响。因此,有必要针对不同领域制定相应的适应措施来提高人们对气候变化的适应能力。北京作为人口众多的大城市及我国的缺水城市之一,气候变化无疑将加剧水资源的供需矛盾。本文针对北京市水资源现状及气候变化对北京市水资源领域已经形成的影响,从自然、工程、政策制度三个角度探讨了北京市水资源领域适应气候变化可采取的对策及保障措施。     

“适应气候变化”是发展中国家当务之急

在应对气候变化的问题上,人们长期以来对“减缓气候变化”高度关注,而对另一重要方面——“适应气候变化”却重视不够。2007年12月联合国气候变化大会通过的《巴厘行动计划》,将“适应气候变化”与“减缓气候变化”置于同等重要的位置。联合国环境规划署发布的《气候变化的影响和适应评估报告》,更是呼吁各国迅速采取行动适应气候变化,在制订经济发展计划时将适应气候变化问题纳入其中,易受气候变化影响的发展中国家和地区更该如此。     

基于遥感技术的城市污水处理厂热岛效应研究

热岛效应已成为城市化发展中影响局地气候变化的重要因素之一.作为城市必要基础设施的一部分,城市污水处理厂对全球性气候变化的影响受到了广泛关注和研究,而对局地气候变化的影响却鲜有研究.文章首次尝试利用Landsat卫星遥感图像对1995年-2013年间苏州市11座城市污水处理厂进行了热岛效应研究,并对影响因素进行了初步分析.结果发现,11座城市污水处理厂热岛强度在18年间整体上增加了48％;从时间维度上来看,在污水处理厂施工建设或升级改造阶段,热岛强度都偏高.而根据回归分析发现,城市地表平均温度、污水处理厂的施工建设状态和主体处理工艺与WHII具有显著正相关性.     

IPCC综合报告：减缓与适应方案需加速部署

<正>2023年3月，政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）发布了第六次评估报告（AR6）综合报告《气候变化2023》，本报告综合了AR6三个工作组和三个特别报告的主要结论，总结了气候变化的现状、影响、风险以及气候减缓和适应的路径。报告指出，气候变化已经影响到了全球每个地区，导致了许多极端天气和气候事件，这对自然和人类产生了广泛的不利影响。尽管目前世界各国都在减缓和适应领域已经取得了一些进展，但这相比于实现气候目标所需的水平仍然存在差距。     

IPCC第一工作组评估报告分析及建议

2021年8月6日,政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第一工作组第六次评估报告(AR6)发布,针对气候系统变化科学领域最新研究进展和成果进行了全面、系统的评估. AR6以更强有力的证据进一步确定了近百年全球气候变暖的客观事实,人类活动对气候变暖影响的信号更为清晰. 本文总结了历次IPCC评估报告,并从气候现状、未来可能的气候状态、风险评估和区域适应气候变化信息以及减缓未来气候变化4个方面对AR6进行系统梳理. 结果表明:人类活动产生的温室气体对大气、海洋、冰冻圈和生物圈的影响前所未有,引发了全球许多地区的极端天气和气候极端事件. 未来若温室气体排放没有显著减少,到2100年全球地表温度将至少升高2.1 ℃;如若人类影响得到有效改善,在最低排放情景(SSP1-1.9)中,2055年将变为负碳,到21世纪末气温开始再次下降. 减少CH₄等其他污染物可以为全球气候治理争取时间,并改善空气质量. 建议中国应对气候变化应加强基础科学研究,聚焦模式开发和应用及与各工作组之间的衔接,加快短寿命气候强迫(SLCFs)与温室气体协同控制研究,强化应对气候变化政策措施的科技支撑等.      

自然和人类环境正在遭受气候变化的影响——IPCC第二工作组第四次评估报告初步解读

2007年4月6日,政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第二工作组第八次全会在比利时布鲁塞尔通过了IPCC第四次评估报告第二卷《气候变化2007:影响、适应和脆弱性》的决策者摘要及主报告.     

Climate change adaptation and mitigation: next steps for cross-sectoral action to protect global health

Effectively addressing the health risks of climate change necessitates an active crosssectoral approach because health risks arise predominantly via sectors such as water, agriculture and energy. Much has been written on climate change and its impact on health, but little attention has focused on the realpolitik of how to progress the development and implementation of health-relevant strategies and policies to reduce this impact. The objective of this paper is to propose three solutions to address current deficiencies: i) strengthening the capacity and understanding of health officials in relation to climate change and health; ii) improving cross-sectoral partnerships with sectors relevant to climate change and health, and iii) identifying organisations influential in the development of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies and policies, with a view to better target advocacy efforts. Practical examples of each solution are provided. In conclusion, as a steward of public health, the health sector must take the initiative to encourage a cross-sectoral approach that includes capacity development, coupled with an understanding of influential organisations. If this is done effectively, health, social and economic development goals can be reached more efficiently.     

2022 年 1 期目录

为摸清全球气候变化背景下,我国海岸带蓝碳应对气候变化的发展状况,发掘我国海岸带蓝碳减缓与适应气候变化的潜力,分析了我国海岸带蓝碳生态系统的基本状况及保护恢复情况,阐述了海岸带蓝碳对气候变化的影响及响应机制,论述了我国海岸带蓝碳发展面临的形势及管理需求。最后,提出了我国海岸带蓝碳应对气候变化的发展建议,即推进海岸带蓝碳管理政策的制定和实施,实现我国海岸带蓝碳的系统性监测,积极开展受损蓝碳生态系统修复案例的研究,加强海岸带蓝碳保护与修复的公众参与度,增强国际合作。     

Adaptation and mitigation: trade-offs in substance and methods

Adaptation to climate change and mitigation of climate change are policy substitutes, as both reduce the impacts of climate change. Adaptation and mitigation should therefore be analysed together, as they indeed are, albeit in a rudimentary way, in cost-benefit analyses of emission abatement. However, adaptation and mitigation are done by different people operating at different spatial and temporal scales. This hampers analysis of the trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation. An exception is facilitative adaptation (enhancing adaptive capacity), which, like mitigation, requires long-term policies at macro level. Facilitative adaptation and mitigation not only both reduce impacts, but they also compete for resources.     

Mitigation needs adaptation: Tropical forestry and climate change

The relationship between tropical forests and global climate change has so far focused on mitigation, while much less emphasis has been placed on how management activities may help forest ecosystems adapt to this change. This paper discusses how tropical forestry practices can contribute to maintaining or enhancing the adaptive capacity of natural and planted forests to global climate change and considers challenges and opportunities for the integration of tropical forest management in broader climate change adaptation. In addition to the use of reduced impact logging to maintain ecosystem integrity, other approaches may be needed, such as fire prevention and management, as well as specific silvicultural options aimed at facilitating genetic adaptation. In the case of planted forests, the normally higher intensity of management (with respect to natural forest) offers additional opportunities for implementing adaptation measures, at both industrial and smallholder levels. Although the integration in forest management of measures aimed at enhancing adaptation to climate change may not involve substantial additional effort with respect to current practice, little action appears to have been taken to date. Tropical foresters and forest-dependent communities appear not to appreciate the risks posed by climate change and, for those who are aware of them, practical guidance on how to respond is largely non-existent. The extent to which forestry research and national policies will promote and adopt management practices in order to assist production forests adapt to climate change is currently uncertain. Mainstreaming adaptation into national development and planning programs may represent an initial step towards the incorporation of climate change considerations into tropical forestry.     

Tools for developing adaptation policy to protect human health

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to add significant pressure to the determinants of public health, and to current health and social protection measures in high, middle and low income countries. Adaptation strategies within the health sector are being developed to address the multi-dimensional nature of the costs and impacts. We further develop and apply a new generic conceptual framework for development-compatible climate policy planning to evaluate policy options for middle and low income countries that reduce the adverse health effects of climate change. The criteria used for comparative evaluation included economic, environment, social and institutional factors. The proposed framework, incorporating system dynamics, provides a foundation for a decision-analytical approach to support the formulation of robust climate change adaptation policies to protect human health.     

Re-thinking water policy priorities in the Mediterranean region in view of climate change

Water is scarce in Mediterranean countries: cities are crowded with increasing demand; food is produced with large amounts of water; ecosystems demand more water that is often available; drought affects all. As climate change impacts become more noticeable and costlier, some current water management strategies will not be useful. According to the findings of CIRCE, the areas with limited water resources will increase in the coming decades with major consequences for the way we produce food and we protect ecosystems. Based on these projections this paper discusses water policy priorities for climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean. We first summarise the main challenges to water resources in Mediterranean countries and outline the risks and opportunities for water under climate change based on previous studies. Recognising the difficulty to go from precipitation to water policy, we then present a framework to evaluate water availability in response to natural and management conditions, with an example of application in the Ebro basin that exemplifies other Mediterranean areas. Then we evaluate adaptive capacity to understand the ability of Mediterranean countries to face, respond and recover from climate change impacts on water resources. Social and economic factors are key drivers of inequality in the adaptive capacity across the region. Based on the assessment of impacts and adaptive capacity we suggest thresholds for water policy to respond to climate change and link water scarcity indicators to relevant potential adaptation strategies. Our results suggest the need to further prioritise socially and economically sensitive policies.     

农户土地利用对环境压力的适应研究进展

农户视角土地利用对环境压力的适应研究已成为气候变化和持续性科学领域的热点。 文章从适应能力决定因素识别、适应障碍和限制因素诊断、适应的生态环境后果评估三个方面综述了农户土地利用对环境压力的适应研究取得的重要进展;梳理了农户适应环境压力的研究方法：综合指数法、参与式评估法、统计和计量经济模型法、适应的共同管理模型法。基于已有研究的特征和转型适应的需要,提出了有待进一步研究的问题：①构建适应研究的理论框架,为经验研究提供理论支撑;②重视提高农户适应能力的制度政策和农户适应实践的生态环境后果评估,为持续适应提供依据;③跨多层次主体综合考察农户土地利用适应过程机理; ④基于系统论思想、多学科和跨学科知识,以及现有方法论基础,构建涉及多层次利益相关主体的农户土地利用对环境压力的适应共同管理模型,以实现适应的科学的社会治理。     

Development projects for small rural communities in the Brazilian Amazon region as potential strategies and practices of climate change adaptation

Climate scenarios for the Amazon region (Brazil) indicate an increase in temperature and a precipitation decrease, affecting society and economic activities, particularly small-scale rural communities. The research aims to identify, describe and evaluate factors present in sustainable development projects for small rural communities (Type- A Demonstration Projects - PDA and Alternatives to Deforestation and Burnt Projects - PADEQ), already implemented, for recognizing its potential use as strategies for adaptation to climate change for small rural communities in the Amazon region. The researches, concerning fifteen projects in Rondonia, Para and Mato Grosso States, were developed through document analysis, technical visits, and interviews with stakeholders of three projects about the community perception, vulnerability and adaptation capacity. The analysis of documents regarding the potential success of the projects highlights their short history, important in the local context, prospects for continuity, and community participation in decision making. Few activities developed in projects could be associated with climate change adaptation practices. Two strategies and practices are the most important: the social organization and the process of awareness and training of the community, and the diversification of the types and forms of agricultural production. The interviews indicate that adaptation is implemented in projects, but without considering the pressures of climate variability and change. While these projects were not planned in the context of climate change, the greatest role of the projects relates to the strengthening of the already existing adaptation capacity, creating good conditions for incorporation of new strategies and adaptation measures, now clearly associated to the objective to reduce the vulnerability to climate change and variability impacts.     

Enhancing adaptive capacity to climate change: The case of smallholder farmers in the Brazilian semi-arid region

Climate change is one of the main challenges faced by mankind in this century. Although developing countries have little historical responsibility for climate change, they are likely to be most affected by it since they lack resources to cope with or to adapt to its effects. Studies show that the semi-arid northeast region of Brazil – where the country's poorest populations are concentrated – is one of the most vulnerable to climate change and thus likely to suffer its impacts more severely. The present paper addresses these problems by presenting a concrete initiative for strengthening adaptive capacity in the rural community of Pintadas as a first step in the development of a comprehensive methodology to help smallholder farmers in the region adapt to climate change. Based on the project results this paper highlights the integration of development, adaptive capacity and adaptation strategies. Furthermore, the necessity of vulnerability studies and concrete local experiences is highlighted in order to develop adaptation strategies that can alleviate poverty and minimize climate change impacts for the poor.     

Climate change adaptation in the ski industry

Regardless of the success of climate change mitigation efforts, the international community has concluded that societies around the world will need to adapt to some magnitude of climate change in the 21st century. While some economic sectors (e.g., agriculture, water resources and construction) have been actively engaged in climate change adaptation research for years, adaptation has received scant consideration within the tourism-recreation industry. This is particularly the case for adaptation by tourism operators (supply-side). One exception where progress on supply-side climate adaptation has been made is the ski industry. This paper provides a brief overview of the literature on the implications of climate change for the international ski industry and how adaptation by ski area operators has been treated within these studies. This is followed by an inventory of climate adaptation practices currently used by ski industry stakeholders, including the historical development of certain key adaptations and constraints to wider use. The characteristics of ski areas with higher adaptive capacity are identified. Considering the highly competitive nature of the ski industry and the generally low climate change risk appraisal within the industry, climate change adaptation is anticipated to remain individualistic and reactive for some time. With only a few exceptions, the existing climate change literature on winter tourism has not considered the wide range of adaptation options identified in this paper and has likely overestimated potential damages. An important task for future studies is to develop methodologies to incorporate adaptation so that a more accurate understanding of the vulnerability of the international ski industry can be ascertained.