Air quality impacts of distributed energy resources implemented in the northeastern United States

Emissions from the potential installation of distributed energy resources (DER) in the place of current utility-scale power generators have been introduced into an emissions inventory of the northeastern United States. A methodology for predicting future market penetration of DER that considers economics and emission factors was used to estimate the most likely implementation of DER. The methodology results in spatially and temporally resolved emission profiles of criteria pollutants that are subsequently introduced into a detailed atmospheric chemistry and transport model of the region. The DER technology determined by the methodology includes 62% reciprocating engines, 34% gas turbines, and 4% fuel cells and other emerging technologies. The introduction of DER leads to retirement of 2625 MW of existing power plants for which emissions are removed from the inventory. The air quality model predicts maximum differences in air pollutant concentrations that are located downwind from the central power plants that were removed from the domain. Maximum decreases in hourly peak ozone concentrations due to DER use are 10 ppb and are located over the state of New Jersey. Maximum decreases in 24-hr average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations reach 3 microg/m3 and are located off the coast of New Jersey and New York. The main contribution to decreased PM2.5 is the reduction of sulfate levels due to significant reductions in direct emissions of sulfur oxides (SO(x)) from the DER compared with the central power plants removed. The scenario presented here represents an accelerated DER penetration case with aggressive emission reductions due to removal of highly emitting power plants. Such scenario provides an upper bound for air quality benefits of DER implementation scenarios.     

A highly resolved temporal and spatial air pollutant emission inventory for the Pearl River Delta region, China and its uncertainty assessment

A highly resolved temporal and spatial Pearl River Delta (PRD) regional emission inventory for the year 2006 was developed with the use of best available domestic emission factors and activity data. The inventory covers major emission sources in the region and a bottom–up approach was adopted to compile the inventory for those sources where possible. The results show that the estimates for SO₂, NO_x, CO, PM₁₀, PM_2.5 and VOC emissions in the PRD region for the year 2006 are 711.4 kt, 891.9 kt, 3840.6 kt, 418.4 kt, 204.6 kt, and 1180.1 kt, respectively. About 91.4% of SO₂ emissions were from power plant and industrial sources, and 87.2% of NO_x emissions were from power plant and mobile sources. The industrial, mobile and power plant sources are major contributors to PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 emissions, accounting for 97.7% of the total PM₁₀ and 97.2% of PM_2.5 emissions, respectively. Mobile, biogenic and VOC product-related sources are responsible for 90.5% of the total VOC emissions. The emissions are spatially allocated onto grid cells with a resolution of 3 km × 3 km, showing that anthropogenic air pollutant emissions are mainly distributed over PRD central-southern city cluster areas. The preliminary temporal profiles were established for the power plant, industrial and on-road mobile sources. There is relatively low uncertainty in SO₂ emission estimates with a range of −16% to +21% from power plant sources, medium to high uncertainty for the NO_x emissions, and high uncertainties in the VOC, PM_2.5, PM₁₀ and CO emissions.     

Mesoscale modeling of wintertime particulate matter episodes in eastern Washington, USA

The Spokane, Washington area is classified as a non-attainment area for the 24-h PM₁₀ standard due to a history of high particulate matter concentrations. A Eulerian regional air quality model (CALMET/CALGRID) has been used to characterize the emission, transport and dispersion of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 in Spokane. Observations from a residential site (Rockwood, RW) and an industrial site (Crown Zellerbach, CZ), spanning July 1994–August 1996 were used to evaluate the current emission inventory. Two major tasks were devised to conduct the objectives of this investigation. First, a simple and efficient urban dispersion model (WYNDValley) was used to simulate important episodes characterized by the highest PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 concentrations. The selected episodes included four days with wet conditions for which no roads would have been emitting and seven days with dry conditions for which roads would emit. In the second step, a single road-emitting event was selected from the previous predicted results for further analysis using the Eulerian regional air quality model to examine the emission inventory. The urban and regional models predicted the observed concentration distributions reasonably well for the source emissions inventoried in Spokane. The mass concentrations of PM₁₀ were well predicted for the roads emitting case examined by both models indicating that the emission inventory based primarily upon area sources including roads is reasonably well characterized, at least at the RW site. The area sources around CZ are less well characterized, so that the PM₁₀ concentrations are underpredicted at CZ. The models appear unable to reach an equilibrium mass balance status at the beginning of the simulation, and the urban model seems unable to properly resolve the nocturnal boundary layer.     

Source apportionment of particulate matter (PM2.5) in an urban area using dispersion,receptor and inverse modelling

Air pollution emission inventories are the basis for air quality assessment and management strategies. The quality of the inventories is of great importance since these data are essential for air pollution impact assessments using dispersion models. In this study, the quality of the emission inventory for fine particulates (PM_2.5) is assessed: first, using the calculated source contributions from a receptor model; second, using source apportionment from a dispersion model; and third, by applying a simple inverse modelling technique which utilises multiple linear regression of the dispersion model source contributions together with the observed PM_2.5 concentrations. For the receptor modelling the chemical composition of PM_2.5 filter samples from a measurement campaign performed between January 2004 and April 2005 are analysed. Positive matrix factorisation is applied as the receptor model to detect and quantify the various source contributions. For the same observational period and site, dispersion model calculations using the Air Quality Management system, AirQUIS, are performed. The results identify significant differences between the dispersion and receptor model source apportionment, particularly for wood burning and traffic induced suspension. For wood burning the receptor model calculations are lower, by a factor of 0.54, but for the traffic induced suspension they are higher, by a factor of 7.1. Inverse modelling, based on regression of the dispersion model source contributions and the PM_2.5 concentrations, indicates similar discrepancies in the emissions inventory. In order to assess if the differences found at the one site are generally applicable throughout Oslo, the individual source category emissions are rescaled according to the receptor modelling results. These adjusted PM_2.5 concentrations are compared with measurements at four independent stations to evaluate the updated inventory. Statistical analysis shows improvement in the estimated concentrations for PM_2.5 at all sites. Similarly, inverse modelling is applied at these independent sites and this confirms the validity of the receptor model results.     

Air Quality Impact of the Coal-Fired Power Plants in the Northern Passageway of the China West-East Power Transmission Project

Abstract

This paper analyzes the air quality impacts of coal-fired power plants in the northern passageway of the West-East Power Transmission Project in China. A three-layer Lagrangian model called ATMOS, was used to simulate the spatial distribution of incremental sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and coarse particulate matter (PM₁₀) concentrations under different emission control scenarios. In the year 2005, the emissions from planned power plants mainly affected the air quality of Shanxi, Shaanxi, the common boundary of Inner Mongolia and Shanxi, and the area around the boundary between Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. In these areas, the annually averaged incremental SO₂ and PM₁₀ concentrations exceed 2 and 2.5 µg/m3, respectively. The maximum increases of the annually averaged SO₂ and PM₁₀ concentrations are 8.3 and 7.2 µg/m³, respectively, which occur around Hancheng city, near the boundary of the Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces. After integrated control measures are considered, the maximum increases of annually averaged SO₂ and PM₁₀ concentrations fall to 4.9 and 4 µg/m³, respectively. In the year 2010, the areas affected by planned power plants are mainly North Shaanxi, North Ningxia, and Northwest Shanxi. The maximum increases of the annually averaged SO₂ and PM₁₀ concentrations are, respectively, 6.3 and 5.6 µg/m³, occurring in Northwest Shanxi, which decline to 4.4 and 4.1 µg/m³ after the control measures are implemented. The results showed that the proposed power plants mainly affect the air quality of the region where the power plants are built, with little impact on East China where the electricity will be used. The influences of planned power plants on air quality will be decreased greatly by implementing integrated control measures.     

Interpretation of air quality in relation to monitoring station's surroundings

This study explores the appropriateness of the locality of air monitoring stations which are meant to indicate air quality in the area. Daily variations in NO₂ and PM₁₀ concentrations at 14 monitoring stations in Hong Kong are examined. The daily variations in NO₂ at a number of background monitoring stations exhibit patterns similar to variations in traffic volume while variations in PM₁₀ concentration exhibit less discernible pattern. Principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) are applied to analyse NO₂ and PM₁₀ measurements between January 2001 and December 2005. The results show that NO₂ concentrations at background stations within the urban area are highly influenced by vehicle emissions. The effect vehicle emission has on NO₂ at stations within new towns is smaller. CA results also show that variations in PM₁₀ concentrations are distinguished by the area the station is located in. PCA results show that there are two principal components (PC's) associated with variations in roadside concentration of PM₁₀. The strong influence of roadside emissions towards concentrations of NO₂ and PM₁₀ at a number of urban background stations may be due to their close proximity to busy roadways and the high density of surrounding tall buildings, which creates an enclosure that hinders dispersion of roadside emissions and results in air pollution behaviour that reflects variation in traffic.     

Dispersion modelling of a wintertime particulate pollution episode in Christchurch,New Zealand

This paper examines the inter-suburb dispersion of particulate air pollution in Christchurch, New Zealand, during a wintertime particulate pollution episode. The dispersion is simulated using the RAMS/CALMET/CALPUFF modelling system, with data from a detailed emissions inventory of home heating, motor vehicles and industry. During the period 27 July–1 August 1995, peak 1 h and 24 h PM₁₀ concentrations of 368 and 107 μg m⁻³, respectively, were observed. Peak concentrations occurred at night, when particulate emissions from wood- and coal-burning domestic heating appliances were at a maximum and emitted into a stable boundary layer. The model is generally able to reproduce the observed PM₁₀ time series recorded at surface monitors located throughout the urban area. For this simulation, the fractional gross error ranges between 0.69 and 0.99, and the fractional bias ranges between −0.17 and 0.30. Strong horizontal concentration gradients of 100 μg m⁻³ km⁻¹, both in the observational record and model predictions, are apparent. Three emission reduction options, designed to reduce the severity of particulate pollution episodes in Christchurch, are simulated. When both domestic open-hearth fires and all coal burning are removed, the 24 h average peak concentration is reduced by 55%. The number of guideline exceedences of PM₁₀ in the modelled period is reduced from five to one. Removing open-hearth fires results in 42% reduction in PM₁₀ concentration, resulting in three exceedences of the guideline, and removing coal-burning fires yields a 32% reduction in PM₁₀, resulting in four exceedences of the guideline.     

The impact of transportation control measures on emission reductions during the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing,China

Traffic congestion and air pollution were two major challenges for the planners of the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing. The Beijing municipal government implemented a package of temporary transportation control measures during the event. In this paper, we report the results of a recent research project that investigated the effects of these measures on urban motor vehicle emissions in Beijing. Bottom–up methodology has been used to develop grid-based emission inventories with micro-scale vehicle activities and speed-dependent emission factors. The urban traffic emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm or less (PM₁₀) during the 2008 Olympics were reduced by 55.5%, 56.8%, 45.7% and 51.6%, respectively, as compared to the grid-based emission inventory before the Olympics. Emission intensity was derived from curbside air quality monitoring at the North 4th Ring Road site, located about 7 km from the National Stadium. Comparison between the emission intensity before and during the 2008 Olympics shows a reduction of 44.5% and 49.0% in daily CO and NO_x emission from motor vehicles. The results suggest that reasonable traffic system improvement strategies along with vehicle technology improvements can contribute to controlling total motor vehicle emissions in Beijing after the Olympic Games.     

Inventory of aerosol and sulphur dioxide emissions from India: I—Fossil fuel combustion

A comprehensive, spatially resolved (0.25°×0.25°) fossil fuel consumption database and emissions inventory was constructed, for India, for the first time. Emissions of sulphur dioxide and aerosol chemical constituents were estimated for 1996–1997 and extrapolated to the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) study period (1998–1999). District level consumption of coal/lignite, petroleum and natural gas in power plants, industrial, transportation and domestic sectors was 9411 PJ, with major contributions from coal (54%) followed by diesel (18%). Emission factors for various pollutants were derived using India specific fuel characteristics and information on combustion/air pollution control technologies for the power and industrial sectors. Domestic and transportation emission factors, appropriate for Indian source characteristics, were compiled from literature. SO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion for 1996–1997 were 4.0 Tg SO₂ yr⁻¹, with 756 large point sources (e.g. utilities, iron and steel, fertilisers, cement, refineries and petrochemicals and non-ferrous metals), accounting for 62%. PM_2.5 emitted was 0.5 and 2.0 Tg yr⁻¹ for the 100% and the 50% control scenario, respectively, applied to coal burning in the power and industrial sectors. Coal combustion was the major source of PM_2.5 (92%) primarily consisting of fly ash, accounting for 98% of the “inorganic fraction” emissions (difference between PM_2.5 and black carbon+organic matter) of 1.6 Tg yr⁻¹. Black carbon emissions were estimated at 0.1 Tg yr⁻¹, with 58% from diesel transport, and organic matter emissions at 0.3 Tg yr⁻¹, with 48% from brick-kilns. Fossil fuel consumption and emissions peaked at the large point industrial sources and 22 cities, with elevated area fluxes in northern and western India. The spatial resolution of this inventory makes it suitable for regional-scale aerosol-climate studies. These results are compared to previous studies and differences discussed. Measurements of emission factors for Indian sources are needed to further refine these estimates.     

Development of a PM2 5 Emissions Inventory for the South Coast Air Basin

ABSTRACT

With the promulgation of a national PM_2.5 ambient air quality standard, it is important that PM_2.5 emissions inventories be developed as a tool for understanding the magnitude of potential PM2.5 violations. Current PM₁₀ inventories include only emissions of primary particulate matter (1 ^ï PM), whereas, based on ambient measurements, both PM₁₀ and PM2.5 emissions inventories will need to include sources of both 1^ï PM and secondary particulate matter (2^ï PM). Furthermore, the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) current edition of AP-42 includes size distribution data for 1o PM that overestimate the PM_2.5 fraction of fugitive dust sources by at least a factor of 2 based on recent studies.

This paper presents a PM_2.5 emissions inventory developed for the South Coast Air Basin (SCAB) that for the first time includes both 1^ï PM and 2^ï PM. The former is calculated by multiplying PM₁₀ emissions estimates by the PM_2.5/PM₁₀ ratios for different sources. The latter is calculated from estimated emission rates of gas-phase aerosol precursor and gas to aerosol conversion rates consistent with the measured chemical composition of ambient PM_2.5 concentrations observed in the SCAB. The major finding of this PM_2.5 emissions inventory is that the ^2ï aerosol component is more than twice the ^1ï aerosol component, which may result in widely different control strategies being required for fine PM and coarse PM.     

Low emission zones reduce PM10 mass concentrations and diesel soot in German cities

In many European cities mass concentrations of PM₁₀ (particles less than 10 μm in size) are still exceeding air quality standards as set by the European Commission in 1999. As a consequence, many cities introduced low emission zones (LEZs) to improve air quality and to meet the limit values. In Germany currently 48 LEZs are in operation. By means of dispersion modeling, PM₁₀ concentrations were estimated to decrease up to 10%. Analysis of PM₁₀ levels conducted for Cologne, Berlin, and Munich some time after the LEZs were introduced showed reduction of PM₁₀ mass concentration in the estimated range. The PM₁₀ particle fraction is, however, composed of particles with varying toxicity, of which diesel soot is highly health relevant. An evaluation of air quality data conducted in Berlin showed that in 2010 traffic-related soot concentrations measured along major roads decreased by 52% compared to 2007. Diesel particle emissions in Berlin were reduced in 2012 by 63% compared to a business-as-usual scenario (reference year 2007). A strong reduction of the traffic-related particle fraction of PM_2.5 was also reported for Munich. Therefore, it is likely that the effects of LEZs are considerably more significant to human health than was anticipated when only considering the reduction of PM₁₀ mass concentrations.

Implications: The implementation of low emission zones in German cities might result in a reduction of PM₁₀ levels concentrations by up to 10%. However, it is difficult to show a reduction of PM₁₀ annual averages in this order of magnitude as meteorology has a large impact on the year-to-year variation of PM mass concentrations. Monitoring of other PM metrics such as black smoke (BS) or elemental carbon (EC) might be a better strategy for evaluating LEZs effects. The benefit of low emission zones on human health is far greater than is presently visible from routine measurements of PM₁₀.     

Resolving the interactions between population density and air pollution emissions controls in the San Joaquin Valley,USA

The effectiveness of emissions control programs designed to reduce concentrations of airborne particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm (PM_2.5) in California's San Joaquin Valley was studied in the year 2030 under three growth scenarios: low, medium, and high population density. Base-case inventories for each choice of population density were created using a coupled emissions modeling system that simultaneously considered interactions between land use and transportation, area source, and point source emissions. The ambient PM_2.5 response to each combination of population density and emissions control was evaluated using a regional chemical transport model over a 3-week winter stagnation episode. Comparisons between scenarios were based on regional average and population-weighted PM_2.5 concentrations. In the absence of any emissions control program, population-weighted concentrations of PM_2.5 in the future San Joaquin Valley are lowest under growth scenarios that emphasize low population density. A complete ban on wood burning and a 90% reduction in emissions from food cooking operations and diesel engines must occur before medium- to high-density growth scenarios result in lower population-weighted concentrations of PM_2.5. These trends partly reflect the fact that existing downtown urban cores that naturally act as anchor points for new high-density growth in the San Joaquin Valley are located close to major transportation corridors for goods movement. Adding growth buffers around transportation corridors had little impact in the current analysis, since the 8-km resolution of the chemical transport model already provided an artificial buffer around major emissions sources.

Assuming that future emissions controls will greatly reduce or eliminate emissions from residential wood burning, food cooking, and diesel engines, the 2030 growth scenario using “as-planned” (medium) population density achieves the lowest population-weighted average PM_2.5 concentration in the future San Joaquin Valley during a severe winter stagnation event.

Implications: The San Joaquin Valley is one of the most heavily polluted air basins in the United States that are projected to experience strong population growth in the coming decades. The best plan to improve air quality in the region combines medium- or high-density population growth with rigorous emissions controls. In the absences of controls, high-density growth leads to increased population exposure to PM_2.5 compared with low-density growth scenarios (urban sprawl).     

Characterization of the Fugitive Particulate Emissions from Construction Mud/Dirt Carryout

Abstract

Although the fugitive dust associated with construction mud/dirt carryout can represent a substantial portion of the particulate matter (PM) emissions inventory in non-attainment areas, it has not been well characterized by direct sampling methods. In this paper, a research program is described that directly determined both PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 (particles ≤10 and 2.5 μm in classical aerodynamic diameter, respectively) emission factors for mud/dirt carryout from a major construction project located in metropolitan Kansas City, MO. The program also assessed the contribution of automotive emissions to the total PM_2.5 burden and determined the baseline emissions from the test road. As part of the study, both time-integrated and continuous exposure-profiling methods were used to assess the PM emissions, including particle size and elemental composition. This research resulted in overall PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 emission factors of 6 and 0.2 g/vehicle, respectively. Although PM₁₀ is within the range of prior U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) guidance, the PM_2.5 emission factor is far lower than previous estimates published by EPA. In addition, based on both the particle size and chemical data obtained in the study, a major portion of the PM_2.5 emissions appears to be attributable to automotive exhaust from light-duty, gasoline-powered vehicles and not to the fugitive dust associated with re-entrained mud/dirt carryout.     

Evaluation of Time-Resolved PM2.5 Data in Urban/Suburban Areas of New Jersey

ABSTRACT

Time-resolved data is needed for public notification of unhealthful air quality and to develop an understanding of atmospheric chemistry, including insights important to control strategies. In this research, continuous fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) mass concentrations were measured with tapered element oscillating microbalances (TEOMs) across New Jersey from July 1997 to June 1998. Data features indicating the influence of local sources and long-distance transport are examined, as well as differences between 1-hr maxima and 24-hr average concentrations that might be relevant to acute health effects. Continuous mass concentrations were not significantly different from filter-collected gravimetric mass concentrations with 95% confidence intervals during any season. Annual mean PM_2.5 concentrations from July 1997 to June 1998 were 17.3, 16.4, 14.1, and 15.3 μg/m³ at Newark, Elizabeth, New Brunswick, and Camden, NJ, respectively. Monthly averaged 24- and 1-hr daily maximum PM_2.5 concentrations suggest the existence of a high PM_2.5 (May-October) and a low PM_2.5 (November-April) season.

PM_2.5 magnitudes and temporal trends were very similar across the state during high PM_2.5 events. In fact, the between-site coefficients of determination (R²) for daily PM_2.5 measurements were 84-98% for June and July. Additionally, during the most pronounced PM_2.5 episode, PM_2.5 concentrations closely tracked the daily maximum 1-hr O₃ concentrations. These observations suggest the importance of transport and atmospheric chemistry (i.e., secondary formation) to PM_2.5 episodes in New Jersey. The influence of local sources was observed in diurnal concentration profiles and annual average between-site differences. Urban wintertime data illustrate that high 1-hr maximum PM_2.5 concentrations can occur on low 24-hr PM_2.5 days.     

Uncertainty in health risks due to anthropogenic primary fine particulate matter from different source types in Finland

The emission-exposure and exposure-response (toxicity) relationships are different for different emission source categories of anthropogenic primary fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). These variations have a potentially crucial importance in the integrated assessment, when determining cost-effective abatement strategies. We studied the importance of these variations by conducting a sensitivity analysis for an integrated assessment model. The model was developed to estimate the adverse health effects to the Finnish population attributable to primary PM_2.5 emissions from the whole of Europe. The primary PM_2.5 emissions in the whole of Europe and in more detail in Finland were evaluated using the inventory of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) and the Finnish Regional Emission Scenario model (FRES), respectively. The emission-exposure relationships for different primary PM_2.5 emission source categories in Finland have been previously evaluated and these values incorporated as intake fractions into the integrated assessment model. The primary PM_2.5 exposure-response functions and toxicity differences for the pollution originating from different source categories were estimated in an expert elicitation study performed by six European experts on air pollution health effects. The primary PM_2.5 emissions from Finnish and other European sources were estimated for the population of Finland in 2000 to be responsible for 209 (mean, 95% confidence interval 6–739) and 357 (mean, 95% CI 8–1482) premature deaths, respectively. The inclusion of emission-exposure and toxicity variation into the model increased the predicted relative importance of traffic related primary PM_2.5 emissions and correspondingly, decreased the predicted relative importance of other emission source categories. We conclude that the variations of emission-exposure relationship and toxicity between various source categories had significant impacts for the assessment on premature deaths caused by primary PM_2.5.     

Compilation and application of a primary PM2.5 emissions inventory with high sectoral resolution in Japan

To elucidate the macro-structure of the PM_2.5 emissions generated by Japan's economic activities, this paper presents an emission inventory of primary particles of PM_2.5 with high sectoral resolution based on the Japanese Input–Output Tables, comprising some 400 sectors. These primary PM_2.5 emissions were estimated by multiplying the estimated energy consumption associated with each fuel type by a PM₁₀ emission factor incorporating the technological level of dust collection in each sector and the mass ratio of PM_2.5 to PM₁₀. Non-energy emissions from agricultural open burning were also determined. Total PM_2.5 emissions in 2000 were 252 kt, 49% of which were due to mobile emission sources. Changes in total PM_2.5 emissions between 1990 and 2000 were also calculated. This showed that a substantial increase in energy sector emissions due to rising coal consumption was offset by a sharp decline in emissions from road vehicles and shipping vessels, resulting in an overall decrease in total emissions. In addition, the emissions induced by economic demand in each sector were quantified by means of input–output analysis, which revealed that demand for construction, foods and communications and services constituted the principal causes of real domestic emissions. An assessment of sectoral contributions to PM_2.5 emissions that takes into account the effects of human exposure, expressed as external costs, suggests that the contribution of transportation is greater than indicated on the grounds of direct emissions alone.     

Natural emissions for regional modeling of background ozone and particulate matter and impacts on emissions control strategies

Natural emissions adopted in current regional air quality modeling are updated to better describe natural background ozone and PM concentrations for North America. The revised natural emissions include organosulfur from the ocean, NO from lightning, sea salt, biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursors, and pre-industrial levels of background methane. The model algorithm for SOA formation was also revised. Natural background ozone concentrations increase by up to 4 ppb in annual average over the southeastern US and Gulf of Mexico due to added NO from lightning while the revised biogenic emissions produced less ozone in the central and western US. Natural PM_2.5 concentrations generally increased with the revised natural emissions. Future year (2018) simulations were conducted for several anthropogenic emission reduction scenarios to assess the impact of the revised natural emissions on anthropogenic emission control strategies. Overall, the revised natural emissions did not significantly alter the ozone responses to the emissions reductions in 2018. With revised natural emissions, ozone concentrations were slightly less sensitive to reducing NOx in the southeastern US than with the current natural emissions due to higher NO from lightning. The revised natural emissions have little impact on modeled PM_2.5 responses to anthropogenic emission reductions. However, there are substantial uncertainties in current representations of natural sources in air quality models and we recommend that further study is needed to refine these representations.     

The Relationship between Cross-Sectional and Time Series Studies

Abstract

There is a dearth of information on dust emissions from sources that are unique to the U.S. Department of Defense testing and training activities. However, accurate emissions factors are needed for these sources so that military installations can prepare accurate particulate matter (PM) emission inventories. One such source, coarse and fine PM (PM₁₀ and PM_2.5) emissions from artillery backblast testing on improved gun positions, was characterized at the Yuma Proving Ground near Yuma, AZ, in October 2005. Fugitive emissions are created by the shockwave from artillery pieces, which ejects dust from the surface on which the artillery is resting. Other contributions of PM can be attributed to the combustion of the propellants. For a 155–mm howitzer firing a range of propellant charges or zones, amounts of emitted PM₁₀ ranged from ～19 g of PM₁₀ per firing event for a zone 1 charge to 92 g of PM₁₀ per firing event for a zone 5. The corresponding rates for PM_2.5 were ～9 g of PM_2.5 and 49 g of PM_2.5 per firing. The average measured emission rates for PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 appear to scale with the zone charge value. The measurements show that the estimated annual contributions of PM₁₀ (52.2 t) and PM_2.5 (28.5 t) from artillery backblast are insignificant in the context of the 2002 U.S. Environment Protection Agency (EPA) PM emission inventory. Using national–level activity data for artillery fire, the most conservative estimate is that backblast would contribute the equivalent of 5 x 10^–4% and 1.6 x 10^–3% of the annual total PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 fugitive dust contributions, respectively, based on 2002 EPA inventory data.     

Characterization of particulate emissions from Australian open-cut coal mines: Toward improved emission estimates

Given the significance of mining as a source of particulates, accurate characterization of emissions is important for the development of appropriate emission estimation techniques for use in modeling predictions and to inform regulatory decisions. The currently available emission estimation methods for Australian open-cut coal mines relate primarily to total suspended particulates and PM₁₀ (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <10 μm), and limited data are available relating to the PM_2.5 (<2.5 μm) size fraction. To provide an initial analysis of the appropriateness of the currently available emission estimation techniques, this paper presents results of sampling completed at three open-cut coal mines in Australia. The monitoring data demonstrate that the particulate size fraction varies for different mining activities, and that the region in which the mine is located influences the characteristics of the particulates emitted to the atmosphere. The proportion of fine particulates in the sample increased with distance from the source, with the coarse fraction being a more significant proportion of total suspended particulates close to the source of emissions. In terms of particulate composition, the results demonstrate that the particulate emissions are predominantly sourced from naturally occurring geological material, and coal comprises less than 13% of the overall emissions. The size fractionation exhibited by the sampling data sets is similar to that adopted in current Australian emission estimation methods but differs from the size fractionation presented in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency methodology. Development of region-specific emission estimation techniques for PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 from open-cut coal mines is necessary to allow accurate prediction of particulate emissions to inform regulatory decisions and for use in modeling predictions.

Implications: Development of region-specific emission estimation techniques for PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 from open-cut coal mines is necessary to allow accurate prediction of particulate emissions to inform regulatory decisions and for use in modeling predictions. Comprehensive air quality monitoring was undertaken, and corresponding recommendations were provided.     

Central power generation versus distributed generation – An air quality assessment in the South Coast Air Basin of California

This study assesses the air quality impacts of central power generation and compares them with the impacts of distributed generation (DG). The central power plant emissions factors used are from a newly installed combined cycle gas turbine system. Because location of power plants is a key parameter affecting air quality impacts, this study considers three potential locations for the installation of central power plants. Air quality impacts are evaluated for the South Coast Air Basin of California, in the year 2010, using a three-dimensional air quality model. Results are compared to air quality impacts from two potential DG scenarios to meet the same power demand as that of the central power plant case.Even though emissions from central generation are lower than emissions from the DG technology mix considered herein, central generation concentrates emissions in a small area, whereas DG spreads emissions throughout a larger cross-section of the air basin. As a result, air quality impacts from central generation are more significant than those from DG. The study also shows that assessment of air quality impacts from distributed and central generation should not only consider emissions levels, but also the spatial and temporal distribution of emissions and the air quality that results from atmospheric chemistry and transport – highly non-linear processes.Finally, analysis of population exposure to ozone and PM_2.5 shows that central generation located in coastal areas upwind from populated areas would cause the highest population exposure and even though emissions from central generation are considerably lower than DG emissions spread throughout the basin, results show that central generation causes a higher pollutant exposure than DG.