An Integrated Approach to the Ecology and Management of Plant Invasions

Plant invasions are a serious threat to natural and managed ecosystems worldwide. The number of species involved and the extent of existing invasions renders the problem virtually intractable, and it is likely to worsen as more species are introduced to new habitats and more existing invaders move into a phase of rapid spread. We contend that current research and management approaches are inadequate to tackle the problem. The current focus is mostly on the characteristics and control of individual invading species. Much can be gained, however, by considering other important components of the invasion problem. Patterns of weed spread indicate that many species have a long lag phase following introduction before they spread explosively. Early detection and treatment of invasions before explosive spread occurs will prevent many future problems. Similarly, a focus on the invaded ecosystem and its management, rather than on the invader, is likely to be more effective. Identification of the causal factors enhancing ecosystem invasibility should lead to more-effective integrated control programs. An assessment of the value of particular sites and their degree of disturbance would allow the setting of management priorities for protection and control. Socioeconomic factors frequently play a larger part than ecological factors in plant invasions. Changes in human activities in terms of plant introduction and use, land use, and timing of control measures are all required before the plant invasion problem can be tackled adequately. Dealing with plant invasions is an urgent task that will require difficult decisions about land use and management priorities. These decisions have to be made if we want to conserve biodiversity worldwide.     

Diversity-invasibility across an experimental disturbance gradient in Appalachian Forests

Research examining the relationship between community diversity and invasions by nonnative species has raised new questions about the theory and management of biological invasions. Ecological theory predicts, and small-scale experiments confirm, lower levels of nonnative species invasion into species-rich compared to species-poor communities, but observational studies across a wider range of scales often report positive relationships between native and nonnative species richness. This paradox has been attributed to the scale dependency of diversity-invasibility relationships and to differences between experimental and observational studies. Disturbance is widely recognized as an important factor determining invasibility of communities, but few studies have investigated the relative and interactive roles of diversity and disturbance on nonnative species invasion. Here, we report how the relationship between native and nonnative plant species richness responded to an experimentally applied disturbance gradient (from no disturbance up to clearcut) in oak-dominated forests. We consider whether results are consistent with various explanations of diversity-invasibility relationships including biotic resistance, resource availability, and the potential effects of scale (1 m2 to 2 ha). We found no correlation between native and nonnative species richness before disturbance except at the largest spatial scale, but a positive relationship after disturbance across scales and levels of disturbance. Post-disturbance richness of both native and nonnative species was positively correlated with disturbance intensity and with variability of residual basal area of trees. These results suggest that more nonnative plants may invade species-rich communities compared to species-poor communities following disturbance.     

The invasion paradox: reconciling pattern and process in species invasions

The invasion paradox describes the co-occurrence of independent lines of support for both a negative and a positive relationship between native biodiversity and the invasions of exotic species. The paradox leaves the implications of native-exotic species richness relationships open to debate: Are rich native communities more or less susceptible to invasion by exotic species? We reviewed the considerable observational, experimental, and theoretical evidence describing the paradox and sought generalizations concerning where and why the paradox occurs, its implications for community ecology and assembly processes, and its relevance for restoration, management, and policy associated with species invasions. The crux of the paradox concerns positive associations between native and exotic species richness at broad spatial scales, and negative associations at fine scales, especially in experiments in which diversity was directly manipulated. We identified eight processes that can generate either negative or positive native-exotic richness relationships, but none can generate both. As all eight processes have been shown to be important in some systems, a simple general theory of the paradox, and thus of the relationship between diversity and invasibility, is probably unrealistic. Nonetheless, we outline several key issues that help resolve the paradox, discuss the difficult juxtaposition of experimental and observational data (which often ask subtly different questions), and identify important themes for additional study. We conclude that natively rich ecosystems are likely to be hotspots for exotic species, but that reduction of local species richness can further accelerate the invasion of these and other vulnerable habitats.     

Factors Associated with Alien Plants Transitioning from Casual, to Naturalized, to Invasive

Abstract:  To explain current plant invasions, or predict future ones, more knowledge on which factors increase the probability of alien species becoming naturalized and subsequently invasive is needed. We created a database of the alien plants in seminatural habitats in Ireland that included data on taxonomy, invasive status, invasion history, distribution, and biological and ecological plant characteristics. We used information from this database to determine the importance of these factors in increasing the ability of species to become naturalized and invasive. More specifically, we used two multiple logistic regressions to identify factors that distinguish naturalized from casual alien plant species and invasive from noninvasive, naturalized alien species. Clonal growth, moisture-indicator value, nitrogen-indicator value, native range, and date of first record affected (in order of decreasing importance) the probability of naturalization. Factors that distinguished invasive from noninvasive species were ornamental introduction, hermaphrodite flowers, pollination mode, being invasive elsewhere, onset of flowering season, moisture-indicator value, native range, and date of first record. Incorporation of phylogenetic information had little influence on the results, suggesting that the capacity of alien species to naturalize and become invasive evolved largely independently in several phylogenetic lineages. Whereas some of the variables were important for both transitions, others were only important for naturalization or for invasion. This emphasizes the importance of studying different stages of the invasion process when looking for mechanisms of becoming a successful invasive plant, instead of simply comparing invasive with noninvasive alien species. Our results also suggest that a combination of species traits and other variables is likely to produce the most accurate prediction of invasions.     

Grassland invader responses to realistic changes in native species richness.

The importance of species richness for repelling exotic plant invasions varies from ecosystem to ecosystem. Thus, in order to prioritize conservation objectives, it is critical to identify those ecosystems where decreasing richness will most greatly magnify invasion risks. Our goal was to determine if invasion risks greatly increase in response to common reductions in grassland species richness. We imposed treatments that mimic management-induced reductions in grassland species richness (i.e., removal of shallow- and/or deep-rooted forbs and/or grasses and/or cryptogam layers). Then we introduced and monitored the performance of a notorious invasive species (i.e., Centaurea maculosa). We found that, on a per-gram-of-biomass basis, each resident plant group similarly suppressed invader growth. Hence, with respect to preventing C. maculosa invasions, maintaining overall productivity is probably more important than maintaining the productivity of particular plant groups or species. But at the sites we studied, all plant groups may be needed to maintain overall productivity because removing forbs decreased overall productivity in two of three years. Alternatively, removing forbs increased productivity in another year, and this led us to posit that removing forbs may inflate the temporal productivity variance as opposed to greatly affecting time-averaged productivity. In either case, overall productivity responses to single plant group removals were inconsistent and fairly modest, and only when all plant groups were removed did C. maculosa growth increase substantially over a no-removal treatment. As such, it seems that intense disturbances (e.g., prolonged drought, overgrazing) that deplete multiple plant groups may often be a prerequisite for C. maculosa invasion.     

Defining patch mosaic functional types to predict invasion patterns in a forest landscape.

Alien plant invasions contribute significantly to global changes by often affecting biodiversity and ecosystem processes. Operational methods for identifying landscape attributes that promote or constrain plant invasions are urgently needed to predict their future spread and manage them efficiently. We combined landscape and functional ecology concepts to define patch mosaic functional types (PMFTs) as groups of cells showing the same response to a plant invasion in a heterogeneous forest landscape. The invasion of a European temperate forest by the American black cherry (Prunus serotina) has been chosen as a case study. A set of variables was collected, mapped using a Geographic Information System, and analyzed with multivariate analyses to correlate landscape traits with Prunus serotina abundance in each cell of a grid overlaid on the forest. A risk index was derived and mapped for three invasion levels: seedling colonization, tree establishment, and ecosystem invasion. Five PMFTs were identified and characterized by a set of traits related to soil properties, land use, disturbance, and invasion history. Scots pine plantations on podzols were the most invasible, while cells dominated by hydromorphic or calcareous soils were the most resistant. Most colonized patch mosaics provided suitable conditions for future establishment and invasion. Being strongly spatially connected, suitable patches provide corridors for Prunus serotina to colonize new parts of the forest. Conversely, the most resistant PMFTs were spatially agglomerated in the south of the forest and could act as a barrier. Colonization, establishment, and invasion risk maps were finally obtained by combining partial risks associated with each landscape trait at the cell scale. Within a heterogeneous landscape, we defined and organized PMFTs into a hierarchy, according to their associated risk for colonization, establishment, or invasion by a given invasive species. Each hierarchical level should be associated with a management strategy aiming at reducing one or more partial risk. Monitoring safe areas, extending cutting rotations, harvesting recently colonized stands tree by tree, promoting a multilayered understory vegetation, cutting down reproducing alien trees, favoring shade-tolerant, fast-growing, native tree species, removing alien trees at the leading edge, and proposing soil enrichment or irrigation in heavily invaded areas are recommended.     

Niche differentiation and fine-scale projections for Argentine ants based on remotely sensed data.

Modeling ecological niches of species is a promising approach for predicting the geographic potential of invasive species in new environments. Argentine ants (Linepithema humile) rank among the most successful invasive species: native to South America, they have invaded broad areas worldwide. Despite their widespread success, little is known about what makes an area susceptible--or not--to invasion. Here, we use a genetic algorithm approach to ecological niche modeling based on high-resolution remote-sensing data to examine the roles of niche similarity and difference in predicting invasions by this species. Our comparisons support a picture of general conservatism of the species' ecological characteristics, in spite of distinct geographic and community contexts.     

The natives are restless, but not often and mostly when disturbed

The argument that the threat posed by introduced species is overblown is often buttressed by the observation that native species sometimes also become invasive. An examination of the literature on plant invasions in the United States shows that six times more nonnative species have been termed invasive than native species, and that a member of the naturalized nonnative pool is 40 times more likely than a native species to be perceived as invasive. In the great majority of instances in which a native plant species is seen as invasive, the invasion is associated with an anthropogenic disturbance, especially changed fire or hydrological regime, livestock grazing, and changes wrought by an introduced species. These results suggest that natives are significantly less likely than nonnatives to be problematic for local ecosystems.     

E‐commerce trade in invasive plants

Biological invasions are a major concern in conservation, especially because global transport of species is still increasing rapidly. Conservationists hope to anticipate and thus prevent future invasions by identifying and regulating potentially invasive species through species risk assessments and international trade regulations. Among many introduction pathways of non‐native species, horticulture is a particularly important driver of plant invasions. In recent decades, the horticultural industry expanded globally and changed structurally through the emergence of new distribution channels, including internet trade (e‐commerce). Using an automated search algorithm, we surveyed, on a daily basis, e‐commerce trade on 10 major online auction sites (including eBay) of approximately three‐fifths of the world's spermatophyte flora. Many recognized invasive plant species (>500 species) (i.e., species associated with ecological or socio‐economic problems) were traded daily worldwide on the internet. A markedly higher proportion of invasive than non‐invasive species were available online. Typically, for a particular plant family, 30–80% of recognized invasive species were detected on an auction site, but only a few percentages of all species in the plant family were detected on a site. Families that were more traded had a higher proportion of invasive species than families that were less traded. For woody species, there was a significant positive relationship between the number of regions where a species was sold and the number of regions where it was invasive. Our results indicate that biosecurity is not effectively regulating online plant trade. In the future, automated monitoring of e‐commerce may help prevent the spread of invasive species, provide information on emerging trade connectivity across national borders, and be used in horizon scanning exercises for early detection of new species and their geographic source areas in international trade.     

Marine biology: the role of accommodation in shaping marine biodiversity

A review of evidence from two kinds of studies conducted in the marine environment suggests a species relationship not previously recognized as being consistent and widespread. In the first instance, observations on species invading from a more diverse ecosystem into a less diverse ecosystem indicate that successful colonizations take place because space is yielded by their ecological equivalents. In the second instance, widespread studies show that any community, rich or poor, located in tropical or cold waters, is vulnerable to invasions by species from a larger, more diverse region. Furthermore, the species richness of a community apparently depends upon that of the region to which it belongs. Together, these observations indicate the existence of a general rule which states that if an invader becomes established, it is permitted to do so by an accommodation on the part of the species that occupies the preferred ecological space. Paleontological data on invasions provide evidence of speciation following accommodation. This leads to the recognition of a three-step process: invasion to accommodation to speciation (IAS). This process, which may be called the IAS mechanism, may have contributed to historical rises of global biodiversity.     

Declines in Woodland Salamander Abundance Associated with Non-Native Earthworm and Plant Invasions

Abstract:  Factors that negatively affect the quality of wildlife habitat are a major concern for conservation. Non-native species invasions, in particular, are perceived as a global threat to the quality of wildlife habitat. Recent evidence indicates that some changes to understory plant communities in northern temperate forests of North America, including invasions by 3 non-native plant species, are facilitated by non-native earthworm invasion. Furthermore, non-native earthworm invasions cause a reduction in leaf litter on the forest floor, and the loss of forest leaf litter is commonly associated with declines in forest fauna, including amphibians. We conducted a mark-recapture study of woodland salamander abundance across plant invasion fronts at 10 sites to determine whether earthworm or plant invasions were associated with reduced salamander abundance. Salamander abundance declined exponentially with decreasing leaf litter volume. There was no significant relationship between invasive plant cover and salamander abundance, independent of the effects of leaf litter loss due to earthworm invasion. An analysis of selected salamander prey abundance (excluding earthworms) at 4 sites showed that prey abundance declined with declining leaf litter. The loss of leaf litter layers due to non-native earthworm invasions appears to be negatively affecting woodland salamander abundance, in part, because of declines in the abundance of small arthropods that are a stable resource for salamanders. Our results demonstrate that earthworm invasions pose a significant threat to woodland amphibian fauna in the northeastern United States, and that plant invasions are symptomatic of degraded amphibian habitat but are not necessarily drivers of habitat degradation.     

Invasion versus Isolation: Trade-Offs in Managing Native Salmonids with Barriers to Upstream Movement

Abstract: Conservation biologists often face the trade‐off that increasing connectivity in fragmented landscapes to reduce extinction risk of native species can foster invasion by non‐native species that enter via the corridors created, which can then increase extinction risk. This dilemma is acute for stream fishes, especially native salmonids, because their populations are frequently relegated to fragments of headwater habitat threatened by invasion from downstream by 3 cosmopolitan non‐native salmonids. Managers often block these upstream invasions with movement barriers, but isolation of native salmonids in small headwater streams can increase the threat of local extinction. We propose a conceptual framework to address this worldwide problem that focuses on 4 main questions. First, are populations of conservation value present (considering evolutionary legacies, ecological functions, and socioeconomic benefits as distinct values)? Second, are populations vulnerable to invasion and displacement by non‐native salmonids? Third, would these populations be threatened with local extinction if isolated with barriers? And, fourth, how should management be prioritized among multiple populations? We also developed a conceptual model of the joint trade‐off of invasion and isolation threats that considers the opportunities for managers to make strategic decisions. We illustrated use of this framework in an analysis of the invasion‐isolation trade‐off for native cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii) in 2 contrasting basins in western North America where invasion and isolation are either present and strong or farther away and apparently weak. These cases demonstrate that decisions to install or remove barriers to conserve native salmonids are often complex and depend on conservation values, environmental context (which influences the threat of invasion and isolation), and additional socioeconomic factors. Explicit analysis with tools such as those we propose can help managers make sound decisions in such complex circumstances.     

Earthworm Invasion as the Driving Force Behind Plant Invasion and Community Change in Northeastern North American Forests

Abstract:  Identification of factors that drive changes in plant community structure and contribute to decline and endangerment of native plant species is essential to the development of appropriate management strategies. Introduced species are assumed to be driving causes of shifts in native plant communities, but unequivocal evidence supporting this view is frequently lacking. We measured native vegetation, non-native earthworm biomass, and leaf-litter volume in 15 forests in the presence and absence of 3 non-native plant species ( Microstegium vimineum, Alliaria petiolata, Berberis thunbergii ) to assess the general impact of non-native plant and earthworm invasions on native plant communities in northeastern United States. Non-native plant cover was positively correlated with total native plant cover and non-native earthworm biomass. Earthworm biomass was negatively associated with cover of native woody and most herbaceous plants and with litter volume. Graminoid cover was positively associated with non-native earthworm biomass and non-native plant cover. These earthworm-associated responses were detected at all sites despite differences in earthworm species and abundance, composition of the native plant community, identity of invasive plant species, and geographic region. These patterns suggest earthworm invasion, rather than non-native plant invasion, is the driving force behind changes in forest plant communities in northeastern North America, including declines in native plant species, and earthworm invasions appear to facilitate plant invasions in these forests. Thus, a focus on management of invasive plant species may be insufficient to protect northeastern forest understory species.     

An Assessment of Invasion Risk from Assisted Migration

Abstract:  To reduce the risk of extinction due to climate change, some ecologists have suggested human-aided translocation of species, or assisted migration (AM), to areas where climate is projected to become suitable. Such intentional movement, however, may create new invasive species if successful introductions grow out of control and cause ecologic or economic damage. We assessed this risk by surveying invasive species in the United States and categorizing invaders based on origin. Because AM will involve moving species on a regional scale within continents (i.e., range shifts), we used invasive species with an intracontinental origin as a proxy for species that would be moved through AM. We then determined whether intracontinental invasions were more prevalent or harmful than intercontinental invasions. Intracontinental invasions occurred far less frequently than invasions from other continents, but they were just as likely to have had severe effects. Fish and crustaceans pose a particularly high threat of intracontinental invasion. We conclude that the risk of AM to create novel invasive species is small, but assisted species that do become invasive could have large effects. Past experience with species reintroductions may help inform policy regarding AM.     

Allelopathic potential of Medicago arborea, a Mediterranean invasive shrub

Summary. Biological invasions are nowadays a major problem in ecology. Allelopathy has been shown to be involved in such invasions, but this mechanism has been little studied in France. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the allelopathic potential of Medicago arborea, an invasive species in the French Mediterranean region. Foliar extracts were tested on three target species (Lactuca sativa, Lepidium sativum and Linum strictum). We showed that Medicago arborea has high allelopathic potential to affect the growth and germination of other species. Yellow flax (Linum strictum), native to the invaded area, was the most sensitive of the tested plant species to foliar extracts of Medicago arborea. Our study pointed out the role of allelopathy in processes leading to biological invasion, and more generally in population dynamics.     

Long-term dynamics of biotic and abiotic resistance to exotic species invasion in restored vernal pool plant communities

Invasion of native ecosystems by exotic species can seriously threaten native biodiversity, alter ecosystem function, and inhibit conservation. Moreover, restoration of native plant communities is often impeded by competition from exotic species. Exotic species invasion may be limited by unfavorable abiotic conditions and by competition with native species, but the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors remains controversial and may vary during the invasion process. We used a long-term experiment involving restored vernal pool plant communities to characterize the temporal dynamics of exotic species invasion, and to evaluate the relative support for biotic and abiotic factors affecting invasion resistance. Experimental pools (n=256) were divided among controls and several seeding treatments. In most treatments, native vernal pool species were initially more abundant than exotic species, and pools that initially received more native seeds exhibited lower frequencies of exotic species over time. However, even densely seeded pools were eventually dominated by exotic species, following extreme climatic events that reduced both native and exotic plant densities across the study site. By the sixth year of the experiment, most pools supported more exotics than native vernal pool species, regardless of seeding treatment or pool depth. Although deeper pools were less invaded by exotic species, two exotics (Hordeum marinum and Lolium multiflorum) were able to colonize deeper pools as soon as the cover of native species was reduced by climatic extremes. Based on an information-theoretic analysis, the best model of invasion resistance included a nonlinear effect of seeding treatment and both linear and nonlinear effects of pool depth. Pool depth received more support as a predictor of invasion resistance, but seeding intensity was also strongly supported in multivariate models of invasion, and was the best predictor of resistance to invasion by H. marinum and L. multilorum. We conclude that extreme climatic events can facilitate exotic species invasions by both reducing abiotic constraints and weakening biotic resistance to invasion.     

Ecological determinism increases with organism size

After much debate, there is an emerging consensus that the composition of many ecological communities is determined both by species traits, as proposed by niche theory, as well as by chance events. A critical question for ecology is, therefore, which attributes of species predict the dominance of deterministic or stochastic processes. We outline two hypotheses by which organism size could determine which processes structure ecological communities, and we test these hypotheses by comparing the community structure in bromeliad phytotelmata of three groups of organisms (bacteria, zooplankton, and macroinvertebrates) that encompass a 10 000-fold gradient in body size, but live in the same habitat. Bacteria had no habitat associations, as would be expected from trait-neutral stochastic processes, but still showed exclusion among species pairs, as would be expected from niche-based processes. Macroinvertebrates had strong habitat and species associations, indicating niche-based processes. Zooplankton, with body size between bacteria and macroinvertebrates, showed intermediate habitat associations. We concluded that a key niche process, habitat filtering, strengthened with organism size, possibly because larger organisms are both less plastic in their fundamental niches and more able to be selective in dispersal. These results suggest that the relative importance of deterministic and stochastic processes may be predictable from organism size.     

Invasive species distribution modeling (iSDM): Are absence data and dispersal constraints needed to predict actual distributions?

Species distribution models (SDMs) based on statistical relationships between occurrence data and underlying environmental conditions are increasingly used to predict spatial patterns of biological invasions and prioritize locations for early detection and control of invasion outbreaks. However, invasive species distribution models (iSDMs) face special challenges because (i) they typically violate SDM's assumption that the organism is in equilibrium with its environment, and (ii) species absence data are often unavailable or believed to be too difficult to interpret. This often leads researchers to generate pseudo-absences for model training or utilize presence-only methods, and to confuse the distinction between predictions of potential vs. actual distribution. We examined the hypothesis that true-absence data, when accompanied by dispersal constraints, improve prediction accuracy and ecological understanding of iSDMs that aim to predict the actual distribution of biological invasions. We evaluated the impact of presence-only, true-absence and pseudo-absence data on model accuracy using an extensive dataset on the distribution of the invasive forest pathogen Phytophthora ramorum in California. Two traditional presence/absence models (generalized linear model and classification trees) and two alternative presence-only models (ecological niche factor analysis and maximum entropy) were developed based on 890 field plots of pathogen occurrence and several climatic, topographic, host vegetation and dispersal variables. The effects of all three possible types of occurrence data on model performance were evaluated with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and omission/commission error rates. Results show that prediction of actual distribution was less accurate when we ignored true-absences and dispersal constraints. Presence-only models and models without dispersal information tended to over-predict the actual range of invasions. Models based on pseudo-absence data exhibited similar accuracies as presence-only models but produced spatially less feasible predictions. We suggest that true-absence data are a critical ingredient not only for accurate calibration but also for ecologically meaningful assessment of iSDMs that focus on predictions of actual distributions.     

Fish and ships: relating dispersal frequency to success in biological invasions

 Most studies characterizing successful biological invaders emphasize those traits that help a species establish a new population. Invasions are, however, multi-phase processes with at least two phases, dispersal and introduction, that occur before establishment. Characteristics that enhance survival at any of these three phases will contribute to invasion success. Here, we synthesize information on the dispersal, introduction, and establishment of fishes mediated by ship ballast-water transport. We synthesize 54 reports of at least 31 fish species collected from ballast tanks (Phase 1), including 28 new reports from our recent studies (1986 to 1996). Our literature survey revealed 40 reports of 32 fish species whose introductions have been attributed to ballast transport (Phase 2), of which at least 24 survived to establish persistent populations (Phase 3). We detected little overlap at the species level between these two data sets (Phase 1 vs Phases 2 and 3), but patterns emerged at the family level. The Gobiidae (6 species), Clupeidae (4 species), and Gasterosteidae (1 species) were the most commonly found fish families in ballast tanks (Phase 1). The Gobiidae (13 species), Blenniidae (6 species) and Pleuronectidae (2 species) dominated the list of ballast-mediated introductions (Phase 2); gobies and blennies were the families most frequently established (Phase 3). The invasive success of gobies and blennies may be explained in part by their crevicolous nature: both groups seek refuge and lay eggs in small holes, and may take advantage of the ballast-intake holes on ship hulls. This behavior, not typically associated with invasive ability, may contribute to successful introduction and establishment by facilitating the dispersal phase of invasion. The failure of the pleuronectids to invade may reflect poor salinity match between donor and recipient regions. To develop a predictive framework of invasion success, organisms must be sampled at all three phases of the invasion process. Our comparison of two ballast sampling methods suggests that fishes have been undersampled in ballast-water studies, including our own, and that the role of ballast transport in promoting fish invasions has been underestimated. Received: 13 January 1999 / Accepted: 24 February 2000     

Preventing the Spread of Invasive Species: Economic Benefits of Intervention Guided by Ecological Predictions

Abstract:  Preventing the invasion of freshwater aquatic species is the surest way to reduce their impacts, but it is also often expensive. Hence, the most efficient prevention programs will rely on accurate predictions of sites most at risk of becoming invaded and concentrate resources at those sites. Using data from Vilas County, Wisconsin (U.S.A.), collected in the 1970s, we constructed a predictive occurrence model for rusty crayfish ( Orconectes rusticus ) and applied it to an independent data set of 48 Vilas County lakes to predict which of these were most likely to become invaded between 1975 and 2005. We nested this invasion model within an economic framework to determine whether targeted management, derived from our quantitative predictions of likely invasion sites, would increase the economic value of lakes in the independent data set. Although the optimum expenditure on lake protection was high, protecting lakes at this level would have produced net economic benefits of at least $6 million over the last 30 years. We did not attempt to determine the value of nonmarket benefits of protection; thus, our results are likely to underestimate the total benefits from preventing invasions. Our results demonstrate that although few data are available early in an invasion, these data may be sufficient to support targeted, effective, and economically rational management. In addition, our results show that ecological predictions are becoming sufficiently accurate that their application in management can produce net economic benefits.