人的生命价值评估方法述评

评估生命价值最常用的两种方法是人力资本法和支付意愿法。用人力资本法评估生命价值的前提是人的生命可以用一个人未来的生产能力来计量,而用支付意愿法评估生命价值的前提是人的生命可以用一个人为降低死亡风险而愿意支付的货币金额来计量。支付意愿法又包括工资—风险法、消费市场法和条件价值法3种类型。工资—风险法通过分析一个人的工资与其工作风险之间的关系来估算生命价值;消费市场法关注的是人们在其进行消费决策时,在风险与价格之间的权衡;而条件价值法则是给定一个假定情景,请被访者对货币和风险进行直接权衡来估算生命价值。笔者对国内外生命价值评估研究进行述评,指出了各种评估方法的优缺点。支付意愿法已成为国外学者评估生命价值的主流方法,学习借鉴国外的研究经验,将这一方法运用于我国的生命价值评估研究是今后国内研究的一个方向。     

新冠疫情背景下建筑从业人员统计生命价值研究

为研究建筑职业风险和新冠疫情风险下的统计生命价值(VOSL),以成都市建筑从业者为对象采集数据,基于生存分析处理删失数据的特性,运用二分式条件价值法(CVM)和Kaplan-Meier法测算不同背景下的VOSL,运用COX回归对VOSL影响因素进行分析。研究结果表明：成都市建筑从业者在职业风险和新冠疫情风险下的VOSL分别为429.472,459.079万元,生命价值评估具有情境依赖性且存在“引导悖论”;2种风险背景下受访者学历、月收入及安全重视程度的提高均会增强支付意愿,而安全满意程度的提高则会降低支付意愿;职业风险下影响支付意愿的关键因素为安全设备保障满意程度、重视程度和学历,新冠疫情风险下影响支付意愿的关键因素为卫生安全重视程度、学历和月收入。     

灾害生命价值评估理论研究

以生命价值定义为基础,给出了人力资本法的计算方法及其优缺点;认为支付意愿方法为生命价值评估的主流方法。基于单期的选择理论,以状态依赖的期望效用函数为基础,论述不存在遗赠意愿、存在遗赠意愿条件下降低死亡概率的边际支付意愿,揭示了改变死亡概率的边际支付意愿取决于初始的生存状态,即初始财富和初始死亡概率。个人可以通过交易重新安排消费和生存状态,达到效用最大化的目的,其条件是边际支付意愿等于提高生存概率的价格。影响生命的风险有多种,当外生风险、工作风险和消费影响死亡风险商品等风险共存条件下,风险水平高低是决定边际支付意愿的重要因素,风险越大,边际支付意愿越大。     

基于工资风险法的生命价值评估

为评估安全工作因挽救人的生命而产生的收益和制定工亡赔偿标准提供理论依据,在分析工资风险法评估生命价值经济学原理的基础上,构建生命价值评估模型。设计调查问卷对98家企业的795名员工进行调查,评估被调查员工的生命价值,并利用调查数据验证模型的有效性。评估结果表明:员工的生命价值评估值呈正态分布;在95%的置信水平下,生命价值评估值的置信区间为[3 424.62,4 284.33]万元,平均值为3 854.48万元。     

生命价值评估与死亡赔偿

在成本-收益分析过程中,生命价值评估为政府确定公共政策收益提供依据。论述生命价值的基本涵义;用劳动市场上的内涵工资法通过分析工资-风险均衡关系来研究生命统计价值,在工人的期望效用曲线与企业的等利润曲线的切点上,企业正常经营,工人实现期望效用最大化。通过对提供曲线求导得到生命价值。生命价值并不针对确定的死亡问题,把生命价值作为死亡赔偿的依据,是对生命价值概念的误解,混淆了生命价值的应用范围。我国法律法规以收入水平为基础确定意外死亡赔偿标准,其实质是人力资本法。     

基于生命经济价值理论的企业安全投资技术经济分析

正确估算人的生命经济价值 ,对于正确评价企业安全投资的经济效益有着重要的意义。在我国 ,长期以来 ,对各种伤亡事故和职业危害的经济赔偿标准定得太低 ,不仅使伤亡者不能获得合理的经济赔偿 ,而且客观上助长了企业经营者轻视安全投资的行为 ,这与我国缺乏较为完善的生命经济价值理论有着密切的关系。目前对人的生命经济价值的估算方法基本上可以分为两大类 :人力资本法和支付意愿法。笔者在前人研究的基础上 ,运用理论模型估算出我国目前一名具有高中文化程度职工的生命经济价值约为 72万元 ,如果条件许可 ,通过调查收集数据 ,然后采用支付意愿法并进行回归分析 ,可获得较为精确的估算值     

道路交通安全统计生命价值评价研究:基于四边界二分式条件价值法

为提高道路交通安全统计生命价值(VOSL)评估的精确性和可靠性,提出基于四边界二分式条件价值法(CVM)的VOSL评价模型,并进行实证研究获得VOSL评估值。基于四边界二分式选择问卷格式设计CVM调查问卷,利用多项Logit模型基本原理构建四边界二分式VOSL评价模型;以大连市私家车出行者为调查对象实施交通意向调查,利用GAUSS软件进行模型参数标定和显著性检验;最终获得VOSL评估值,并进行VOSL影响因素分析。结果表明:道路交通VOSL评估值为231. 08万元;四边界二分式CVM调查问卷更能模拟市场定价过程,四边界二分式VOSL评价模型具有更高的精确性;道路交通VOSL与学历、家庭月收入显著正相关。     

公众对地震的风险感知研究

为了探索影响公众对地震风险感知的关键因素,并分析该因素随时间变化的趋势,运用公众问卷调研法及多元统计法调查公众对地震的风险感知,并进行风险支付意愿的回归分析与时间维度下风险感知的差异性对比.研究表明,公众对地震的了解程度和感知到的威胁程度因时间发生显著变化,并影响公众对风险的感知态度.建议政府通过与公众的有效沟通以及加强立法,纠正公众的风险感知偏差,并将公众的风险感知纳入风险分析和政策决策中.     

连云港公众对核电和火电风险感知的比较分析

研究造成不同人群对核电和火电风险感知差异的关键因素,并分析不同人群对这2种风险支付意愿(WTP)的差别.采用公众问卷调研法及多元统计法分析公众对核电和火电的风险感知.结果表明,年龄为30～39岁的人群以及教育程度为大专和研究生学历的人群对核电和火电的风险感知差别度具有显著差异性,同时也发现政府在人们对比核电和火电风险感知程度时扮演重要角色,即对政府信任度高的人对核电的风险感知度相对较低.风险支付意愿分析表明,不同分类人群对核电和火电风险的WTP值总体趋势一致,即女性高于男性,低龄组和高龄组高于中龄组,无业者和家庭主妇高于有固定职业者,受中等教育者高于受低等和高等教育者,30 000～50 000元年薪者高于其他年薪段人,外地游客高于移居者和本土居民.本研究为政府等决策机构选择有效目标人群提供了参考依据.     

民航员工安全信息自愿报告意愿的促进路径:基于模糊集定性比较分析

为探究民航员工安全信息自愿报告意愿的作用路径,基于个人-环境匹配理论,构建个体特征和组织环境影响员工自愿报告意愿的多条件联动模型,基于178份调查问卷,应用模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)方法开展验证。结果表明：安全信息自愿报告意愿的产生不是认知水平、工作嵌入、职业身份认同、领导支持和安全文化等单一条件促发的结果,而是由多个条件共同作用,高水平安全信息自愿报告意愿的促进模式有3个,分别为：员工自主驱动型,核心条件是员工的高认知水平、高工作嵌入和高职业身份认同;领导员工共鸣型,核心条件是员工的高认知水平、高职业身份认同、工作嵌入不足和组织的高领导支持;领导支持牵引型,核心条件是组织的高领导支持和安全文化缺失。     

Valuing lives equally in a benefit-coast analysis of safety projects: A method to reconcile theory and practice

A value of statistical life (VSL) is used in cost-benefit analysis (CBA) as a monetary measure of the benefits to people from small risk reductions that arise from safety projects. Despite its widespread use in a number of countries, the concept of a VSL remains controversial, not least because it implies acceptance of the underlying ethical assumptions of CBA together with the idea that ‘social welfare’ can be measured and aggregated in some manner. In addition, to comply with theory, variable VSLs for different groups within society would be advocated. However, without fail, empirically, it is the case that those countries that employ a willingness to pay based approach to cost-benefit analysis of a safety project appraisal tend to use a single value for that accident context that is independent of the per capita income level, or indeed other personal characteristics, of the sub-group in society to which the safety improvement will actually apply. This article presents a straightforward, but theoretically justified adaptation to the calculation of a VSL which allows empirical practice by policymakers i.e. the application of a “common” VSL for any particular hazard within a given society, to be compatible with a CBA decision making approach.     

Estimating the value of life and injury for pedestrians using a stated preference framework

IntroductionThe incidence of pedestrian death over the period 2010 to 2014 per 1000,000 in North Cyprus is about 2.5 times that of the EU, with 10.5 times more pedestrian road injuries than deaths. With the prospect of North Cyprus entering the EU, many investments need to be undertaken to improve road safety in order to reach EU benchmarks.MethodWe conducted a stated choice experiment to identify the preferences and tradeoffs of pedestrians in North Cyprus for improved walking times, pedestrian costs, and safety. The choice of route was examined using mixed logit models to obtain the marginal utilities associated with each attribute of the routes that consumers chose. These were used to estimate the individuals' willingness to pay (WTP) to save walking time and to avoid pedestrian fatalities and injuries. We then used the results to obtain community-wide estimates of the value of a statistical life (VSL) saved, the value of an injury (VI) prevented, and the value per hour of walking time saved.ResultsThe estimate of the VSL was €699,434 and the estimate of VI was €20,077. These values are consistent, after adjusting for differences in incomes, with the median results of similar studies done for EU countries. The estimated value of time to pedestrians is €7.20 per person hour.ConclusionsThe ratio of deaths to injuries is much higher for pedestrians than for road accidents, and this is completely consistent with the higher estimated WTP to avoid a pedestrian accident than to avoid a car accident. The value of time of €7.20 is quite high relative to the wages earned.Practical applicationsFindings provide a set of information on the VRR for fatalities and injuries and the value of pedestrian time that is critical for conducing ex ante appraisals of investments to improve pedestrian safety.     

Introducing changes at work: How voice behavior relates to management innovation

This multistudy research examines the unit‐level relationship between promotive voice behavior and management innovation. Study 1 utilizes multisource data from 62 work units and reports that willingness to discuss ideas mediates the unit‐level relationship between promotive voice and management innovation. The results of Study 1 also show that the unit's available resources make the relationship stronger between promotive voice and willingness to discuss ideas. Study 2 employs a scenario‐based design to constructively replicate and expand the results of Study 1, utilizing a sample of 100 working adults. The results of the second study also show that resource availability positively moderates the relationship between promotive voice and willingness to discuss ideas. Furthermore, Study 2 shows that the indirect effect of promotive voice on management innovation through willingness to discuss ideas is stronger when more resources are made available to the work units. This moderated‐mediation effect is shown to be significant using two different operationalizations of management innovation. The implications for theory and practice are discussed.     

ISM耦合ANP矿工安全注意力衰减影响因素模型

为了减少煤矿安全事故的发生,从“纵向过程观”角度,引入矿工安全注意力控制空间、安全信息分配空间和安全行为结果空间,建立矿工安全注意力衰减影响因素模型。首先,基于文献研究,建立矿工安全注意力衰减影响因素体系,一共包含12个指标;其次,利用解释结构模型（ISM）构建矿工安全注意力衰减的3级递阶有向图;最后,采用网络层次分析法（ANP）构建矿工安全注意力衰减影响因素的权重模型,并借助Super Decision（SD）软件求解。结果表明:安全自制力、行为习惯、工作负荷、风险应对力以及安全信息刺激频率为表层直接影响因素;安全认知、工作要求、作业环境特征、安全信息变化多样性和风险感知力为中层间接影响因素;管理方式和安全信息刺激强度为深层根本影响因素。主要影响因素有:安全认知、安全自制力、行为习惯、管理方式、安全信息刺激频率以及风险感知力。     

Occupational Safety Culture Index (OSCI)——measuring the community and employees awareness,attitude and knowledge towards workplace safety and health in Hong Kong SAR

Promoting occupational safety and health in Hong Kong,Special Administrative Region of China is an important and ongoing mission. As the major organization with statutory responsibilities,the Occupational Safety and Health Council understand the importance to strengthen and cultivate our safety culture. It is widely believed that numbers of occupational related diseases and injuries could be prevented with the improvement of the awareness and attitudes of the employees and the public. Therefore,a comprehensive and in-depth study to monitor the occupational health and safety level and status of the community and working population is needed. Objectives: Our Council has developed the Occupational Safety Culture Index ( OSCI) to measure the current level of community and workplace safety and health awareness,knowledge and attitude. Benchmarking measures of the key safety performance indicators are to be derived thereof. Methods: A territory-wide random telephone survey was conducted to assess the community and employees’awareness,attitude and knowledge in 2008. A structured questionnaire was designed with the content validity and reliability assessed before the survey administration. A series of quality control approaches were also applied to assure the quality of the fieldwork and the reliability of the data. Results: 1,531 eligible participants’data were collected and computed into 2 types of composite indices,Occupational Safety Culture Index ( Community) ( OSCIC) and Occupational Safety Culture Index (Workplace) (OSCIW) . With the maximum score of index at 100,the overall score of OSCIC is 66. 9 and the OSCIW is 61. 3 in Hong Kong. Achievements: OSCI served as an effective management tool to measure the safety culture in Hong Kong. With a representative sample and high quality study control and validated assessment approaches,the OSCI and the sub-indices are reliable indicators to assess the effectiveness of safety culture enhancement strategy and the OSH intervention measures.     

基于贝叶斯网络的煤矿事故人因推理

煤矿事故的不可重现性决定了事故原因的调查具有很强的不确定性,如何通过事故发生后的相关信息提高事故深层次原因调查的准确性是非常重要的。将HFACS与贝叶斯网络相结合,以煤矿事故HFACS分析结果为样本,通过卡方检验和让步比分析建立人因的贝叶斯网络因果图,进一步利用最大似然估计算法确定了煤矿事故人因的贝叶斯网络参数。最后,以双柳煤业顶板事故的调查信息为证据推理导致煤矿事故发生的深层次原因,提高事故原因调查的准确性,从而验证模型的有效性。