Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water

Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost–benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost–benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis through a multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology introduces several important concepts and definitions in decision analysis related to subsurface contamination. These are the trade-off between population risk and individual risk, the trade-off between the residual risk and the cost of risk reduction, and cost-effectiveness as a justification for remediation. The proposed decision analysis framework integrates probabilistic health risk assessment into a comprehensive, yet simple, cost-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology focuses on developing decision criteria that provide insight into the common questions of the decision-maker that involve a number of remedial alternatives. The paper then explores three potential approaches for alternative ranking, a structured explicit decision analysis, a heuristic approach of importance of the order of criteria, and a fuzzy logic approach based on fuzzy dominance and similarity analysis. Using formal alternative ranking procedures, the methodology seeks to present a structured decision analysis framework that can be applied consistently across many different and complex remediation settings. A simple numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results showed the importance of using an integrated approach for decision-making considering both costs and risks. Future work should focus on the application of the methodology to a variety of complex field conditions to better evaluate the proposed methodology.     

A Strategic Project Appraisal framework for ecologically sustainable urban infrastructure

Actors in the built environment are progressively considering environmental and social issues alongside functional and economic aspects of development projects. Infrastructure projects represent major investment and construction initiatives with attendant environmental, economic and societal impacts across multiple scales. To date, while sustainability strategies and frameworks have focused on wider national aspirations and strategic objectives, they are noticeably weak in addressing micro-level integrated decision making in the built environment, particularly for infrastructure projects. The proposed approach of this paper is based on the principal that early intervention is the most cost-effective and efficient means of mitigating the environmental effects of development projects, particularly macro infrastructure developments. A strategic overview of the various project alternatives, taking account for stakeholder and expert input, could effectively reduce project impacts/risks at low cost to the project developers but provide significant benefit to wider communities, including communities of future stakeholders. This paper is the first exploratory step in developing a more systematic framework for evaluating strategic alternatives for major metropolitan infrastructure projects, based on key sustainability principles. The developed Strategic Project Appraisal (SPA) framework, grounded in the theory of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), provides a means of practically appraising project impacts and alternatives in terms of quantified ecological limits; addresses the neglected topic of metropolitan infrastructure as a means of delivering sustainability outcomes in the urban context and more broadly, seeks to open a debate on the potential for SEA methodology to be more extensively applied to address sustainability challenges in the built environment. Practically applied and timed appropriately, the SPA framework can enable better decision-making and more efficient resource allocation ensuring low impact infrastructure development.     

Phase-based externality analysis for large hydropower projects

The global pressure of reducing greenhouse gas emission with an increasing energy demand has promoted the development of hydropower projects. However, these projects are always involved with controversial issues even when providing great positive externalities. This calls for more comprehensively quantitative analysis of hydropower project externalities. This paper establishes an analysis framework for hydropower project externalities based on the Life Cycle Assessment methodology and the economic valuation of hydropower externalities, and then applies the framework to the assessment of the Three Gorges Project and the Xiluodu Project as cases. The results indicate that: (1) hydropower project externalities are multi-component and dynamic in different phases of project life cycle; (2) the construction of large hydropower projects is beneficial for social welfare promotion, but the enhancement doesn't appear immediately at the startup but with a lag; and (3) along the life cycle of a hydropower project, negative externalities are prominent in the early phases while positive ones account for a major proportion in the late phases, calling for special attention to risk management during the construction and benefit allocation management during project operation. The results and recommendations of this paper can also be applied to other types of public or private projects for better social performance.     

growing pains: a conceptual framework for considering integrated assessments

Policy concerns related to the environment have grown in the past decadesfrom relatively local and well-defined problems to increasingly complex andglobal issues. With this has grown the need to develop the capacity tointegrate, reconcile, organize, and communicate knowledge across scientificdisciplines, as well as to make this knowledge available and useful for policy-makers. One response to this has been the growing field ofIntegrated Assessment (IA). Our goal in this paper is to reflect on the purpose and valueof IA in principle. We propose a conceptual framework within whichindividual IA studies, and the practice of IA as a whole, can be placed andevaluated. The framework addresses both the integrative nature of IAs andtheir policy usefulness, including a self-awareness of their role and capabilities. We illustrate several stages in the evolution of integrated assessments: fromlinear to more complex chains of analysis, from non-adaptive to perfectly-adaptive to realistically-adaptive agents, from simplistic to sophisticated to pluralistic consideration of alternative underlying development paths, from strictly quantitative to quantitative and qualitative analyses, from science-driven to policy-driven, and from analyses that dictate to users to those that involvethose users in the actual assessment process. By so doing, we argue for botha richer form and process of IA. Ultimately, we feel that it may also benecessary to reconsider the framing of the questions that IAs have been askedto address, perhaps leading to the consideration of the use of other forms of mandated science.     

Green Lean Six Sigma for sustainable development: Integration and framework

The sustainable oriented demand, globalized competition, and governmental policies on climate change have enforced the industries to adopt sustainable practices. Green Lean Six Sigma (GLS) is an eco-friendly approach that mitigates carbon footprints and produces high specifications products. But to implement the GLS program, it is indispensable to integrate individual Green, Lean, and Six Sigma approaches in unique GLS methodology. Moreover, there exists no GLS framework that can be applied irrespective of the size, type, and culture of the organization. So, the present work deals with the integration and development of the GLS framework. The integration of the GLS was proposed based on theoretical elements, and the framework was developed based on DMAIC approach. It has found that enablers, toolset, and implementation methods supplement the integration of GLS. The proposed framework provides a path for GLS implementation through an appropriate selection of the project. Besides, it has identified that unique GLS indices and toolset are required to estimate various sustainability measures and execute selected GLS projects. The present study will facilitate the organizations to have readiness for the implementation of a sustainable GLS approach through a detailed understanding of integration and GLS framework.     

Potential effects of large linear pipeline construction on soil and vegetation in ecologically fragile regions

Long-distance pipeline construction results in marked human disturbance of the regional ecosystem and brings into question the safety of pipeline construction with respect to the environment. Thus, the direct environmental impact and proper handling of such large projects have received much attention. The potential environmental effects, however, have not been fully addressed, particularly for large linear pipeline projects, and the threshold of such effects is unclear. In this study, two typical eco-fragile areas in western China, where large linear construction projects have been conducted, were chosen as the case study areas. Soil quality indices (SQI) and vegetation indices (VI), representing the most important potential effects, were used to analyze the scope of the effect of large pipeline construction on the surrounding environment. These two indices in different buffer zones along the pipeline were compared against the background values. The analysis resulted in three main findings. First, pipeline construction continues to influence the nearby eco-environment even after a 4-year recovery period. During this period, the effect on vegetation due to pipeline construction reaches 300 m beyond the working area, and is much larger in distance than the effect on soil, which is mainly confined to within 30 m either side of the pipeline, indicating that vegetation is more sensitive than soil to this type of human disturbance. However, the effect may not reach beyond 500 m from the pipeline. Second, the scope of the effect in terms of distance on vegetation may also be determined by the frequency of disturbance and the intensity of the pipeline construction. The greater the number of pipelines in an area, the higher the construction intensity and the more frequent the disturbance. Frequent disturbance may expand the effect on vegetation on both sides of the pipeline, but not on soil quality. Third, the construction may eliminate the stable, resident plant community. During the recovery period, the plant community in the work area of the pipeline is replaced by some species that are rare or uncommon in the resident plant community because of human disturbance, thereby increasing the plant diversity in the work area. In terms of plant succession, the duration of the recovery period has a direct effect on the composition and structure of the plant community. The findings provide a theoretical basis and scientific foundation for improving the environmental impact assessment (EIA) of oil and gas pipeline construction as it pertains to the desert steppe ecosystem, and provide a reference point for recovery and management of the eco-environment during the pipeline construction period.     

Addressing social aspects associated with wastewater treatment facilities

In wastewater treatment facilities (WWTF), technical and financial aspects have been considered a priority, while other issues, such as social aspects, have not been evaluated seriously and there is not an accepted methodology for assessing it. In this work, a methodology focused on social concerns related to WWTF is presented. The methodology proposes the use of 25 indicators as a framework for measuring social performance to evaluate the progress in moving towards sustainability. The methodology was applied to test its applicability and effectiveness in two WWTF in Mexico (urban and rural). This evaluation helped define the key elements, stakeholders and barriers in the facilities. In this context, the urban facility showed a better overall performance, a result that may be explained mainly by the better socioeconomic context of the urban municipality. Finally, the evaluation of social aspects using the semi-qualitative approach proposed in this work allows for a comparison between different facilities and for the identification of strengths and weakness, and it provides an alternative tool for achieving and improving wastewater management.     

An Integrated Assessment by Models for Energy Systems Analysis and Life-Cycle Assessment with a Case Study of Advanced Fossil-Fired Power Plants in China

We developed an integrated assessment (IA) using models for energy systems analysis and life-cycle assessment (LCA). Based on this assessment framework, we developed cost-benefit analysis (CBA) case studies for a hypothetical project designed to introduce advanced fossil-fired power generation technologies in China. Our MARKAL model for Japan confirmed that radical reductions (i.e., 80 % by 2050) of carbon dioxide (CO₂) could be attained from energy systems alone and that credit for emission allowances was required. We evaluated life-cycle costs and emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur oxide, and nitrogen oxide gases for the energy technologies using an LCA model. Further, we applied a power generation planning model for six Chinese grids to provide a power mix structure, potentially producing credit by installing fossil-fired power generation technology and by using baseline grid emission factors with an average cost of electricity. Finally, by using dynamic emission reductions and additional costs from the two models, we conducted case studies of CBA for a hypothetical project to install the technologies in China. This was accomplished by evaluating emission reductions in monetary terms and by applying a life-cycle impact assessment model. A unique feature of our IA is its dynamic (time-varying) assessment of costs and benefits.     

Landscape scale ecological monitoring as part of an EIA of major construction activities: experience at the Turkish section of the BTC crude oil pipeline project

Ecological monitoring is a complementary component of the overall environmental management and monitoring program of any Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) report. The monitoring method should be developed for each project phase and allow for periodic reporting and assessment of compliance with the environmental conditions and requirements of the EIA. Also, this method should incorporate a variance request program since site-specific conditions can affect construction on a daily basis and require time-critical application of alternative construction scenarios or environmental management methods integrated with alternative mitigation measures. Finally, taking full advantage of the latest information and communication technologies can enhance the quality of, and public involvement in, the environmental management program. In this paper, a landscape-scale ecological monitoring method for major construction projects is described using, as a basis, 20 months of experience on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) Crude Oil Pipeline Project, covering Turkish Sections Lot B and Lot C. This analysis presents suggestions for improving ecological monitoring for major construction activities.     

Assessment of online public opinions on large infrastructure projects: A case study of the Three Gorges Project in China

Public opinion becomes increasingly salient in the ex post evaluation stage of large infrastructure projects which have significant impacts to the environment and the society. However, traditional survey methods are inefficient in collection and assessment of the public opinion due to its large quantity and diversity. Recently, Social media platforms provide a rich data source for monitoring and assessing the public opinion on controversial infrastructure projects. This paper proposes an assessment framework to transform unstructured online public opinions on large infrastructure projects into sentimental and topical indicators for enhancing practices of ex post evaluation and public participation. The framework uses web crawlers to collect online comments related to a large infrastructure project and employs two natural language processing technologies, including sentiment analysis and topic modeling, with spatio-temporal analysis, to transform these comments into indicators for assessing online public opinion on the project. Based on the framework, we investigate the online public opinion of the Three Gorges Project on China's largest microblogging site, namely, Weibo. Assessment results present spatial-temporal distributions of post intensity and sentiment polarity, reveals major topics with different sentiments and summarizes managerial implications, for ex post evaluation of the world's largest hydropower project. The proposed assessment framework is expected to be widely applied as a methodological strategy to assess public opinion in the ex post evaluation stage of large infrastructure projects.     

Assessing soil and groundwater contamination in a metropolitan redevelopment project

The purpose of this study was to assess contaminated soil and groundwater for the urban redevelopment of a rapid transit railway and a new mega-shopping area. Contaminated soil and groundwater may interfere with the progress of this project, and residents and shoppers may be exposed to human health risks. The study area has been remediated after application of first remediation technologies. Of the entire area, several sites were still contaminated by waste materials and petroleum. For zinc (Zn) contamination, high Zn concentrations were detected because waste materials were disposed in the entire area. For petroleum contamination, high total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) and hydrocarbon degrading microbe concentrations were observed at the depth of 7 m because the underground petroleum storage tank had previously been located at this site. Correlation results suggest that TPH (soil) concentration is still related with TPH (groundwater) concentration. The relationship is taken into account in the Spearman coefficient (α).     

A review of uncertainty research in impact assessment

This paper examines uncertainty research in Impact Assessment (IA) and the focus of attention of the IA scholarly literature. We do so by first exploring ‘outside’ the IA literature, identifying three main themes of uncertainty research, and then apply these themes to examine the focus of scholarly research on uncertainty ‘inside’ IA. Based on a search of the database Scopus, we identified 134 journal papers published between 1970 and 2013 that address uncertainty in IA, 75% of which were published since 2005. We found that 90% of IA research addressing uncertainty focused on uncertainty in the practice of IA, including uncertainty in impact predictions, models and managing environmental impacts. Notwithstanding early guidance on uncertainty treatment in IA from the 1980s, we found no common, underlying conceptual framework that was guiding research on uncertainty in IA practice. Considerably less attention, only 9% of papers, focused on uncertainty communication, disclosure and decision-making under uncertain conditions, the majority of which focused on the need to disclose uncertainties as opposed to providing guidance on how to do so and effectively use that information to inform decisions. Finally, research focused on theory building for explaining human behavior with respect to uncertainty avoidance constituted only 1% of the IA published literature. We suggest the need for further conceptual framework development for researchers focused on identifying and addressing uncertainty in IA practice; the need for guidance on how best to communicate uncertainties in practice, versus criticizing practitioners for not doing so; research that explores how best to interpret and use disclosures about uncertainty when making decisions about project approvals, and the implications of doing so; and academic theory building and exploring the utility of existing theories to better understand and explain uncertainty avoidance behavior in IA.     

Use of a non-planning driving background change methodology to assess the land-use planning impact on the environment

The implementation of land-use planning (LUP) impacts on the environment and may degrade regional environmental quality due to the changes in land-use patterns. To minimize the environmental impact of non-LUP driven (NPD) land-use background changes (LUBC), we propose an NPD land-use background change (NPD-LUBC) methodology to improve the LUP environmental impact assessment (LUPEA) process. With the application of the state-impact-state (SIS) framework and spatial information technologies including remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS), the methodology was tested on the eastern Chinese city of Lianyungang. The results indicate that (1) our proposed methodology is capable of distinguishing the environmental impact in implementing a target LUP, i.e. a LUP scheme to be assessed, from those driven by NPD-LUBC; (2) the prediction of NPD Land-use pattern simulated through the discrimination of NPD forces provides the basic data to support the LUPEA using our proposed methodology; (3) SO₂, PM₁₀, and COD emitted into the atmosphere and water are the major pollutants considered in the LUPEA of the city; and (4) despite the positive impacts of the comprehensive land-use change under the direction of target LUP, the implementation of LUP would have negative impacts on the regional environment in the entire study area and in individual counties/districts respectively in 2020. Our proposed methodology provides a new and operable way for the areas with data to simulate NPD land-use pattern and predict the individual indicator values for the assessment.     

Sub-soil contamination due to oil spills in zones surrounding oil pipeline-pump stations and oil pipeline right-of-ways in Southwest-Mexico

Oil spills due to oil pipelines is a very frequent problem in Mexico. Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX), very concerned with the environmental agenda, has been developing inspection and correction plans for zones around oil pipelines pumping stations and pipeline right-of-way. These stations are located at regular intervals of kilometres along the pipelines. In this study, two sections of an oil pipeline and two pipeline pumping stations zones are characterized in terms of the presence of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPHs) and Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs). The study comprehends sampling of the areas, delimitation of contamination in the vertical and horizontal extension, analysis of the sampled soils regarding TPHs content and, in some cases, the 16 PAHs considered as priority by USEPA, calculation of areas and volumes contaminated (according to Mexican legislation, specifically NOM-EM-138-ECOL-2002) and, finally, a proposal for the best remediation techniques suitable for the contamination levels and the localization of contaminants.     

Methodology for environmental assessment of proposed activity using risk analysis

This study applies a process of detailed assessment to summarize the potential impact of a proposed construction or other activity on the environment before implementation of an investment plan. The aim of the study was to develop a general methodology for analysis and evaluation of environmental issues connected with planned activities and proposed projects (especially buildings and engineering constructions, required implementation of environmental impact assessment process) using a risk analysis method, thus enabling the best option among the proposed activities to be chosen. The methodology was developed for conditions in Slovakia but could be arranged for any other country considering national conditions, requirements, standards and legislative. Application of the developed methodology in environmental impact assessment could create preconditions for more effective implementation of the EIA process. This paper provides a framework for the risk analysis component of the scoping phase within the EIA process. The process outlined in this paper will assist with determination of an estimation of risks to environmental and health of proposed activities.     

滇池流域水环境综合管理技术支撑平台构建研究

滇池流域水环境综合管理技术支撑平台以实现水环境数据信息化、支撑多元化、管理智能化为目标,集成水环境多元数据采集传输、融合共享及动态表征技术,突破高原湖泊流域多目标复杂环境综合管理决策控制技术,构建"数据中心-业务系统-信息发布"为主线的综合管理平台,其以水环境数据中心为支撑,以水环境信息系统与水环境专家决策支持系统为核心,以水环境信息发布系统为共享交换媒介,为流域管理提供监控预警、总量控制、预测预报、项目评估及应急决策等技术服务,有效支撑滇池流域水环境监控预警和综合管理。     

Development of a multi-criteria index ranking system for urban runoff best management practices (BMPs) selection

Low impact development best management practices (LID-BMPs) are considered to be cost-effective measures for mitigating the water quantity and quality impact of urban runoff. Currently, there are many types of LID-BMPs, and each type has its own intrinsic technical and/or economical characteristics and limitations for implementation. The selection of the most appropriate BMP type(s) for a specific installation site is therefore a very important planning step. In the present study, a multi-criteria selection index system (MCIS) for LID-BMP planning was developed. The selection indexes include 12 first-level indices and 26 second-level indices which reflect the specific installation site characteristics pertaining to site suitability, runoff control performance, and economics of implementation. A mechanism for ranking the BMPs was devised. First, each individual second-level index was assigned a numeric value that was based on site characteristics and information on LID-BMPs. The quantified indices were normalized and then integrated to obtain the score for each of the first-level index. The final evaluation scores of each LID-BMP were then calculated based on the scores for the first-level indices. Finally, the appropriate BMP types for a specific installation site were determined according to the rank of the final evaluation scores. In order to facilitate the application of the MCIS BMP ranking system, the computational process has been coded into a software program, BMPSELEC. A case study demonstrating the MCIS methodology, using an LID-BMP implementation planning at a college campus in Foshan, Guangdong Province, is presented.     

A knowledge brokerage approach for assessing the impacts of the setting up young farmers policy measure in Greece

This study explores Knowledge Brokerage (KB) aspects of an ex-post Impact Assessment (IA) for the Rural Development Programme (RDP) measure of setting up young farmers, under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), at the regional level in Northern Greece. The measure supports the entry of young farmers in agriculture by moving land from older to younger farmers. The aim of the study was to test a set of KB tools for improving the interaction between researchers and policy makers. Our analysis mainly focused on a suite of IA Support Modules to guide practitioners, and on a technical tool kit, a web-based contextualisation platform, to support the IA of the specific test case. Offering a structured approach towards IA, both the Support Modules and LIAISE-KIT allow framing the context, organisation, scheduling and method selection in the light of KB objectives. The evaluation of how IA Support Modules influence the Science Policy Interface (SPI), in the case of the ex-post assessment, demonstrated the high relevance of KB activities for facilitating the interaction between researchers and regional policy makers. The assessment bridges the gap between knowledge producers developing scientific output to be applied in a specific context, and knowledge users, who want clear messages regarding the policy challenges they face. Other conclusions include the need for specific guidelines and training for knowledge users, especially with regard to the use of tools. According to our findings, a consequent application of KB activities is a crucial pre-condition for successfully implementing IAs in future RDP measures.     

Monitoring: The missing piece: A critique of NEPA monitoring

The U.S. National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) of 1969 heralded in an era of more robust attention to environmental impacts resulting from larger scale federal projects. The number of other countries that have adopted NEPA's framework is evidence of the appeal of this type of environmental legislation. Mandates to review environmental impacts, identify alternatives, and provide mitigation plans before commencement of the project are at the heart of NEPA. Such project reviews have resulted in the development of a vast number of reports and large volumes of project-specific data that potentially can be used to better understand the components and processes of the natural environment and provide guidance for improved and efficient environmental protection. However, the environmental assessment (EA) or the more robust and intensive environmental impact statement (EIS) that are required for most major projects more frequently than not are developed to satisfy the procedural aspects of the NEPA legislation while they fail to provide the needed guidance for improved decision-making. While NEPA legislation recommends monitoring of project activities, this activity is not mandated, and in those situations where it has been incorporated, the monitoring showed that the EIS was inaccurate in direction and/or magnitude of the impact. Many reviews of NEPA have suggested that monitoring all project phases, from the design through the decommissioning, should be incorporated. Information gathered though a well-developed monitoring program can be managed in databases and benefit not only the specific project but would provide guidance how to better design and implement future activities designed to protect and enhance the natural environment.     

A proposed coast-wide reference monitoring system for evaluating wetland restoration trajectories in Louisiana

Wetland restoration efforts conducted in Louisiana under the Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection and Restoration Act require monitoring the effectiveness of individual projects as well as monitoring the cumulative effects of all projects in restoring, creating, enhancing, and protecting the coastal landscape. The effectiveness of the traditional paired-reference monitoring approach in Louisiana has been limited because of difficulty in finding comparable reference sites. A multiple reference approach is proposed that uses aspects of hydrogeomorphic functional assessments and probabilistic sampling. This approach includes a suite of sites that encompass the range of ecological condition for each stratum, with projects placed on a continuum of conditions found for that stratum. Trajectories in reference sites through time are then compared with project trajectories through time. Plant community zonation complicated selection of indicators, strata, and sample size. The approach proposed could serve as a model for evaluating wetland ecosystems.