一种利用海量AIS数据规划安全航线的方法

为了解决智能规划的船舶航线贴着障碍物、岸边等问题,提出了一种基于海量AIS数据,研究船舶习惯航路并以此规划航线的方法。将分析水域网格化,选取目标船舶,统计其航迹所占的网格并计数,形成单船的航迹网格图。叠加不同目标船的航迹网格图,可获取分析水域内的航迹分布网格频数图,该图凝结了前船行驶的习惯航线。依据前船习惯航线设置网格的适航度,利用适航度改进A星算法的估值函数,可规划两点间安全航线。利用成山头警戒区作为分析水域,构建该水域3个月内100~150 m船舶形成的航迹分布网格频数图,并以此为依据规划航线,结果显示推荐的航线倾向于选择适航度较高的网格,有效避免以往研究中航线贴着障碍物、岸边的情况。     

LNG船舶锚泊安全距离定量计算建模

为保障液化天然气船舶(LNG船舶)锚泊安全,提出了一种基于船舶漂移运动和船舶碰撞风险的锚泊安全距离计算方法.首先,结合船舶运动数学模型,通过蒙特卡洛模拟LNG船舶走锚漂移运动,得出走锚漂移方向概率密度函数,从而确定船舶走锚漂移横向、纵向距离;同时,结合船舶碰撞概率模型、船舶碰撞损害模型和LNG火灾模型,建立LNG船舶碰撞风险模型,确定满足碰撞概率和风险可接受的安全距离.最后,比较两种模型计算结果,并取其较大值作为LNG船舶锚泊安全距离.结果表明,LNG船锚泊安全距离不仅与环境水域的风、流情况有关,还与附近水域内船舶大小及速度有关.建议交通管理中需结合水域环境特征和水域船舶特点确定LNG船舶的锚泊安全距离.     

基于行船视距的船舶会遇安全距离研究

近年来船舶交通流量大幅增加,船舶会遇愈加频繁。为降低船舶会遇避让时的碰撞危险,在行车视距基础上,提出行船视距的概念,并引入航速、避让航向角等参数,构建基于行船视距的船舶领域模型,船舶采取避让操作时,可利用该模型判断应与他船保持的安全距离和最佳航速及避让航向角。从仿真结果发现：船舶追越时应尽量与他船保持3.5倍船长以上距离,并在船尾与他船达到2倍船长以上距离时回到原航向;对遇时应尽量与他船保持7倍船长以上距离采取避让,如果航道宽裕,避让时应尽量与他船横距保持1.8倍船长以上,如果航道较窄,也应尽量保证船舶在可航水域内进行大角度避让,并与他船横距保持0.72倍船长以上。研究结果可为实际船舶避让提供指导建议。     

基于AIS数据的长江口船舶排放清单研究

为了研究繁忙水域的船舶排放清单,基于船舶自识别系统(Automatic Identification System,AIS)的数据建立了针对不同船型的船舶排放计算模型。先根据AIS数据中包含的船舶尺度数据计算各类船型的发动机功率,然后运用基于AIS数据的模型计算船舶排放清单及排放分担率,最后对船舶排放的空间分布进行分析。以2010年长江口水域的船舶交通流数据为基础,计算该水域的船舶排放清单,结果表明:1)在各类船舶废气排放物中,CO2排放量最多,NOx和SOx次之,N2O最少,结果合理可信;2)各类船型的排放分担率分别为5.36%(客船)、6.59%(散货船)、51.47%(集装箱船)、15.95%(油船)、5.37%(渔船)、15.27%(其他船型);3)船舶排放聚集区主要是长江口的南、北槽航段及其附近的码头水域。     

自由航行海域船舶碰撞概率计算

为分析船舶在自由航行海域航行的事故风险,提出自由航行海域船舶碰撞概率计算方法。首先,从船舶自动识别系统(AIS)轨迹信息提取船舶航行特征点,利用航迹聚类算法对自由航行海域的船舶行为特征建模,并采用合适的剪枝方法对聚类树进行剪枝,获得某目标海域船舶的航迹分类和航路尺度特征。然后,根据航路中船舶交通流的分布特征,利用IWRAP理论对船舶碰撞概率进行蒙特卡洛仿真,计算不同航路中的船舶碰撞概率值。由试验结果可知,根据航迹聚类算法将该水域划分为10段航路;该水域的最危险航路为T1和T9,最危险的汇聚点是P1,最危险船舶种类为货船;该水域船舶碰撞事故频率为1.18起/a。仿真试验结果表明,航路聚类结果和船舶碰撞概率与目标海域实际情况一致。     

基于系统动力学的港口船舶通航风险成因耦合模型

为改善水上交通安全条件和有效避免风险事故的发生,需要研究港口船舶通航风险的形成机理。以港口船舶通航复杂性系统为视角,借助系统动力学方法进行港口船舶通航风险成因耦合仿真。首先,探讨港口水域船舶通航风险的形成原因及成因的相互影响和耦合类型;其次,基于港口水域船舶通航风险的人、船、环境与管理子系统构成因素,提出港口水域船舶通航风险成因之间的相互关系动力学流图;然后,建立非线性的系统动力学动态耦合模型,通过港口水域船舶通航风险成因耦合仿真,分析同质因素和异质因素的耦合作用。最后,结合青岛港船舶通航风险影响因素的数据,采用系统动力耦合模型进行港口水域船舶通航风险成因的耦合作用程度分析。结果表明:在港口船舶通航风险成因中双因素耦合作用下,与环境因素耦合造成的风险较大,特别是与交通环境因素耦合后风险大,且变异系数小。需要切实加强交通组织管理,从而降低客观因素的耦合程度,可有效避免通航事故,提高通航系统的安全可靠性。     

基于AIS的数据时空分析及船舶会遇态势提取方法

为精准提取船舶会遇态势,提升水上交通安全监管能力,对长江口南槽水域自动识别系统(AIS)数据做时空分析,提出对船舶会遇态势模式分类的自动提取方法。首先,利用会遇态势过程的时空约束关系提取会遇船舶配对轨迹信息;然后,借助数据插值方法对会遇轨迹做时空同步处理和数据补全,实现会遇场景重建;最后,分析船舶会遇的时空演化特征,提取特定时间窗口内的相对距离和航向差特征,形成会遇特征序列,利用支持向量机(SVM)对会遇特征序列分类辨识建模,实现会遇态势的自动提取。结果表明:设置时空约束条件可以准确提取船舶配对轨迹信息;对会遇过程作时空分析,实现了会遇场景的重建;借助SVM设计的会遇态势提取算法的准确率达90%以上,与传统方法相比降低了误判率。     

一种船舶失控情况下桥区水域范围界定方法

为分析船舶失控状态下船-桥碰撞概率分布特征,定量界定船舶失控状态下桥区水域范围,提高桥区通航安全保障水平,对界定方法进行研究。以失控状态下船舶的运动模型为基础,建立基于失控运动特征的船-桥碰撞概率计算模型。在此基础上,根据船-桥碰撞概率可接受标准定量界定桥区水域范围。为验证算法的合理性,运用蒙特卡洛法模拟出不同气象、水文条件和船舶失控状态下的船-桥碰撞概率,基于随机模拟结果,计算出不同船-桥碰撞概率条件下桥区水域范围。仿真结果表明:用该方法界定的桥区水域范围与当前海事主管部门经验设置的范围一致。     

浅水航道对遇两船的船行波数值模拟

船行波的大小直接影响到两岸的岸堤、护坡和船间效应,同时船行波的波形和波浪参数对航道宽度规划、护岸工程设计等也有着重要的参考意义。运用常用的计算流体力学分析软件STAR-CCM+,基于CFD技术构建了某水域电动游览船实船仿真模型,通过求解RANS数值方程并结合RNGκ-ε湍流模型、VOF多相流模型和6DOF运动学模型模拟分析了内河某浅水航道两艘电动游览船对遇的情形,对比分析了船行波的波形耦合及船行波对两船船体和岸堤的影响。结合6DOF与重叠网格模型仿真分析了对遇两船由驶近到驶离不同局面下两船的运动状况,研究了两船之间的船行波波高的变化。数值计算和模拟试验结果表明,船行波对小型船舶两船的船间作用干扰明显,船行波波高变化明显,船行波波形耦合响应逼真。研究结果真实、可靠,具有较高的使用价值,可为主管单位管理船舶、合理调度、保障通航安全提供有效数据支持和理论依据。     

区间化AIS数据驱动的抵泊过程多维控制模型

为提高船舶靠泊安全,对接智能靠泊,实现船舶抵泊过程中的姿态控制,运用切比雪夫拟合法、95％置信度区间法、最小二乘法及上述组合方法的2次拟合等优化策略,拟合区间化船舶自动识别系统(AIS)数据中速度、航向、艏向和船位等靠泊控制参数,构建区间化AIS数据驱动的多维抵泊姿态控制模型,并采用某轮靠泊南京龙潭港一年的AIS数据测...     

受限水域船舶积压风险测度方法研究

为了系统、客观地评估受限水域船舶积压衍生风险,实现对船舶积压风险的防控,进行船舶积压风险测度方法的研究。阐述了受限水域船舶积压风险的3种表现形式,提炼了风险表现形式的测评指标,提出了受限水域船舶积压指数,并建立了以二元Logistic回归为核心的风险测度模型,对积压风险测评指标进行量化处理,最后通过对三峡-葛洲坝枢纽船舶积压风险的实证分析验证测度方法的可行性。结果表明,受限水域船舶积压风险测度方法可以根据水域特征筛选积压风险主要测评指标,并最终得到积压衍生风险发生概率预测公式,预测并判断相应水域某一时期的船舶积压衍生风险严重程度,对实时测度和降低受限水域船舶积压风险、完善受限水域船舶通航安全预警和相关软件开发运用具有重要意义。     

Decision-making on process risk of Arctic route for LNG carrier via dynamic Bayesian network modeling

An increasing number of ships have chosen the suitable route to transport in Arctic waters during summer. Seeking a suitable model for risk decision-making in route planning is a necessary research topic at present. Due to its complex natural environment, there is significant uncertainty regarding ship navigation safety in Arctic waters. The process risk-based decision-making method to support route planning is established based on the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) risk assessment model for LNG carrier collision with ice or obstacles in Arctic waters. The decision-making process for ship navigation is dynamically associated with time. Therefore, a Markov Chain (MC) is built for each dynamic node in Bayesian belief network (BBN) to realize DBN associated risk assessment, which is called process risk and is applied to decision-making. Three possible routes for ships sailing from the Vikitsky Strait to the Long Strait in Arctic waters were selected in conjunction with the objective daily change data of wind speed, temperature, wave height, and ice condition. Simulations for risk decision-making in the ship navigation process are performed. Application examples show that the ship selected either ROUTE2 (Vikitsky Strait – Laptev Sea – Sannikov Strait – Eastern Siberian Sea – Long Strait) or ROUTE3 (Vikitsky Strait – Laptev Sea – Proliv Dmitriya Lapteva – Eastern Siberian Sea – Long Strait) in August as the best navigable route.     

基于DEMATEL-ANP的重大件船舶大风浪航行安全指标选取

为了改善重大件船舶在大风浪条件下航行的安全性,保证船舶、船员、重大件货物安全到港,在查阅大量文献、咨询专家并结合实际经验后,构建了重大件船舶大风浪安全指标体系。首次将DEMATEL-ANP(决策试验与评价实验室-网络分析法)方法引入大风浪安全领域,建立了重大件船舶大风浪航行安全的DEMATEL-ANP结构。通过DEMATEL方法计算了指标间综合影响矩阵,并绘制因果图对各指标进行分类。借助综合影响矩阵和重大件船舶大风浪安全指标体系,通过ANP方法梳理网络结构并计算了混合权重。确定了对安全影响较大的指标,并对其进行管控。通过与AHP方法的对比,表明该方法更加合理、客观地考虑了指标间的相互影响,提出的DEMATEL-ANP结构合理、可行,能够很好地应用于大风浪安全领域,对保证船舶安全具有一定的指导意义。     

Integrated pedestrian countermeasures - Potential of head injury reduction combining passive and active countermeasures

A rapid development of both pedestrian passive and active safety, such as pedestrian bonnets/airbags and autonomous braking, is in progress. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential pedestrian head injury reduction from hypothetical passive and active countermeasures compared to an integrated system. The German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) database was queried from 1999 to 2008 for severely (AIS3+) head injured pedestrians when struck by car or van fronts. This, resulted in 54 cases where information was sufficient. The passive countermeasure was designed to mitigate head injuries caused by the bonnet area, A-pillars, and the remaining windscreen area up to 2.1 m wrap around distance (WAD). The active countermeasure was an autonomous braking system, which was activated one second prior to impact if the pedestrian was visible to a forward-looking sensor. The integrated system was a direct combination of the passive and active countermeasures. Case by case the effect from each of the active, passive and integrated systems was estimated. For the integrated system, the influence of the active system on the passive system performance was explicitly modeled in each case. The integrated system resulted in 50% (95% confidence interval: 30-70%) greater effectiveness than the active countermeasure in reducing the number of pedestrians sustaining severe (AIS3+) head injuries, and 90% (95% CI: 50-150%) greater effectiveness than the passive countermeasure. Integrated systems of passive and active pedestrian countermeasures offer a considerably increased potential for head injury reduction compared to either of the two systems alone.     

Measurement method for objective cyclist behavior parameters

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this research is to study the feasibility of measuring behavioral indicators that reflect effects of infrastructure and interaction with other road users.

Methods: An observation study was performed using 6 cameras above a separated cycle path next to a road which included a crossing with both cyclists and cars. A learning method based on Single Shot MultiBox Detector was applied to automatically detect the cyclists, and cyclist tracks were determined. Next, kinematic parameters were calculated from the cyclists’ tracks. Amongst others, the cyclists’ intensity, speed, position on the cycle path, and the distance to each other were analyzed for a busy period as well as for a quiet period of the day.

Results: With the measurement method developed in this study it is possible to analyze the cyclists’ intensity, the space they use at the cycle path, their average velocity, waiting times, the space and velocity amongst each other, and red light negation. However, collisions were not seen in the dataset analyzed, and the data is not sufficiently accurate to analyze sudden braking actions.

Conclusion: It can be concluded that the developed measurement method provides insight of the cyclists’ behavior in such a way that it can already be used for obtaining information to make changes to the infrastructure that will improve the comfort and safety of cyclists. The method could be further developed for doing qualitative comfort and safety analyses, and for doing analyses of the interaction between various types of road participants.     

Consequence analysis by means of characteristic curves to determine the damage to humans from the detonation of explosive substances as a function of TNT equivalence

In a previous paper, the characteristic overpressure–impulse–distance curves for the detonation of explosive substances were presented. They allow the overpressure and impulse to be determined at each distance from the detonation. When combined with damage criteria (such as those shown by the Probit equations), the characteristic curves allow consequence analysis for this kind of explosion to be carried out in only one step, as the damage is shown in the same diagram as the overpressure, impulse and distance. In this paper, diagrams and equations are presented to determine the damage to humans (eardrum rupture, death due to displacement and skull fracture, death due to displacement and whole body impact, and death due to lung damage or lung haemorrhage).     

基于船舶操纵模拟的船撞桥概率研究

针对船舶在桥区水域航行过程中撞击桥墩的碰撞概率问题,建立并验证了船舶操纵数学模型,模拟了船舶在不同风、水流等条件下的航行情况,改进了AASHTO船舶撞桥概率模型中几何概率的算法,提出了以模拟试验样本的航迹带中心位置坐标为均值,以模拟实验样本结果计算的方差为方差的几何概率模型,同时引入停船概率模型。将改进后的模型应用于北江油金大桥船舶操纵模拟及船撞概率的研究,预测2020年北江油金大桥受上行船舶碰撞年频率大约2.81×10-6次/a,受下行船舶碰撞年频率3.43×10-4次/a,总碰撞频率3.461×10-4次/a。     

A comprehensive assessment system for the maritime traffic environment

It is desirable when drawing up a maritime traffic environmental project or a project for consolidating port and harbour facilities, that the safety of the maritime environment for shipping-traffic is assessed quantitatively, and that the rationale of a given project and the proposed safety measures are evaluated in an objective manner.In this report, the system flow and procedures to integrally assess the safety of the maritime traffic environment by systematically combining various simulation techniques are discussed first.Subsequently, the quantitative risk evaluation procedure for collisions of ships in waters with a high traffic density, among the assessment procedures above, and an outline of the shipping traffic flow simulation capable of reproducing ships′ movements, are described. In evaluating the results of simulations, a method introducing Subjective Judgement values (SJ-values) as indexes manifesting the subjective degree of danger felt by shiphandlers, is shown. The SJ-values were experimentally determined from simulator experiments using parameters representing the relation ship with other ships proceeding in the vicinity.Finally, some of the results of studies conducted for the recent construction of new LNG berths in Tokyo Bay are introduced as an example of practical safety assessment in this field.