Risk Assessment of Carbon Sequestration for Terrestrial Ecosystems in China

Climate change will alter the capacity of carbon sequestration,and the risk assessment of carbon sequestration for terrestrial ecosystems will be helpful to the decision-making for climate change countermeasures and international climate negotiations.Based on the net ecosystem productivity of terrestrial ecosystems simulated by Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model,each grid of the risk criterion was set by time series trend analysis.Then the risks of carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems were investigated.The results show that,in the IPCCSRES-B2 climate scenario,climate change will bring risks of carbon sequestration,and the high-risk level will dominate terrestrial ecosystems.The risk would expand with the increase of warming degree.By the end of the long-term of this century,about 60% of the whole country will face the risk;Northwest China,mountainous areas in Northeast China,middle and lower reaches plain of Yangtze River areas,Southwest China and Southeast China tend to be extremely vulnerable.Risk levels in most regions are likely to grow with the increase of warming degree,and this increase will mainly occur during the near-term to mid-term.Northwest China will become an area of high risks,and deciduous coniferous forests,temperate mixed forests and desert grassland tend to be extremely vulnerable.     

Impacts of climate change on Chinese ecosystems: key vulnerable regions and potential thresholds

China is a key vulnerable region of climate change in the world. Climate warming and general increase in precipitation with strong temporal and spatial variations have happened in China during the past century. Such changes in climate associated with the human disturbances have influenced natural ecosystems of China, leading to the advanced plant phenology in spring, lengthened growing season of vegetation, modified composition and geographical pattern of vegetation, especially in ecotone and tree-lines, and the increases in vegetation cover, vegetation activity and net primary productivity. Increases in temperature, changes in precipitation regime and CO₂ concentration enrichment will happen in the future in China according to climate model simulations. The projected climate scenarios (associated with land use changes again) will significantly influence Chinese ecosystems, resulting in a northward shift of all forests, disappearance of boreal forest from northeastern China, new tropical forests and woodlands move into the tropics, an eastward shift of grasslands (expansion) and deserts (shrinkage), a reduction in alpine vegetation and an increase in net primary productivity of most vegetation types. Ecosystems in northern and western parts of China are more vulnerable to climate changes than those in eastern China, while ecosystems in the east are more vulnerable to land use changes other than climate changes. Such assessment could be helpful to address the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC Article 2).     

中国气候变化的科学新认知

了解和认识百年来中国气候发生的变化、引起其变化的驱动因素以及未来的可能变化,可以更好地适应和减缓气候变化。本文综合评估了观测到的中国气候变化事实、中国气候变化的驱动力、中国未来气候变化预估三大方面,分析了气候变暖的趋势、水循环以及降水和冰川变化、极端天气气候事件变化、生物化学循环、海洋和土地覆盖变化及其气候效应以及未来气候变化的特点和趋势等最新科学进展。在中国百年温度趋势、气候系统多气候指标变化特征、极端天气气候事件中的人类活动作用以及气候系统模拟能力等方面的研究有了新的进展。可以看到中国气候变暖趋势持续、大气二氧化碳等长寿命温室气体浓度继续增长、人为强迫影响了多种气候要素在强度和频率的变化,中国陆地生态系统的固碳量增加。本文最后提出未来中国气候变化研究需要进一步加强的问题,包括:中国气候变化中的城市化效应、气候系统内部变率在年代际变化中的作用、气溶胶-云-降雨相互作用的机理、大范围土地利用变化(如大规模生态恢复工程)的气候效应,以及云辐射反馈、海洋环流对气候变化的响应与反馈、气候-碳循环反馈等过程对气候模拟不确定的影响等。     

"十二五"环境规划中应对气候变化问题的思考

气候变化对我国社会、经济与环境的协调可持续发展影响日趋严重,把应对气候变化问题纳入国家环境规划必要且适时.在分析行为效益、实施成本、适应性排放和国际因素的基础上,提出我国"十二五"环境规划中应同时考虑"减缓"和"遥应"行为应对气候变化并权衡二者优先次序,采用以适应为主的"单效"方案,将自然承载力、生产系统、社会人居环境三个层次和自然生态系统、水资源、灾害与风险、低碳经济、敏感部门、城市化环境效应、海岸带等7个相关主要问题作为规划应对气候变化的熏点领域.     

Climate change: an amplifier of existing health risks in developing countries

Global warming is perceived as one of the biggest global health risks of the twenty-first century and a threat to the achievement of sustainable (economic) development; especially in developing countries, climate change is believed to further exacerbate existing vulnerability to disease and food security risks, because their populations are, for example, more reliant on agriculture and more vulnerable to droughts and have a lower adaptive capacity. Furthermore, the health-related impacts of climate change are threatening to undo decades of development policies. The interactions between climate and non-climate factors are of vital importance in shaping human vulnerability to global warming. Climate change cannot be seen as ‘a stand-alone risk factor,’ but rather as an amplifier of existing health and food security risks and an additional strain on institutional infrastructures. In order to avoid a multiplication of health risks in the developing world, there is a need to better understand the multifaceted and complex linkages involved. This is further illustrated for two important climate change–induced health risks, namely malnutrition and malaria. As the amplification of existing and emerging health risks in the developing world might become the greatest tragedy of climate change, adaptation ranks high on developing countries’ agendas. Of particular importance are the discussions about the ‘Green Climate Fund,’ which aims to administer billions of dollars for mitigation and adaptation. Of course, making funds for adaptation available is an important first step, but we also need to ask ourselves the question how such adaptation policies and projects should take shape. This paper demonstrates that an adequate response to climate change health risks should take a systems approach toward adaptation, acknowledging the importance of the local context of the most vulnerable.     

Projecting canopy cover change in Tasmanian eucalypt forests using dynamically downscaled regional climate models

Loss of forest cover is a likely consequence of climate change in many parts of the world. To test the vulnerability of eucalypt forests in Australia’s island state of Tasmania, we modelled tree canopy cover in the period 2070–2099 under a high-emission scenario using the current climate–canopy cover relationship in conjunction with output from a dynamically downscaled regional climate model. The current climate–canopy cover relationship was quantified using Random Forest modelling, and the future climate projections were provided by three dynamically downscaled general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Three GCMs were used to show a range of projections for the selected scenario. We also explored the sensitivity of key endemic and non-endemic Tasmanian eucalypts to climate change. All GCMs suggested that canopy cover should remain stable (proportional cover change <10 %) across ~70 % of the Tasmanian eucalypt forests. However, there were geographic areas where all models projected a decline in canopy cover due to increased summer temperatures and lower precipitation, and in addition, all models projected an increase in canopy cover in the coldest part of the state. The model projections differed substantially for other areas. Tasmanian endemic species appear vulnerable to climate change, but species that also occur on the mainland are likely to be less affected. Given these changes, restoration and carbon sequestration plantings must consider the species and provenances most suitable for future, rather than present, climates.     

Ecosystem carbon budgeting and soil carbon sequestration in reclaimed mine soil

Global warming risks from emissions of green house gases (GHGs) by anthropogenic activities, and possible mitigation strategies of terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration have increased the need for the identification of ecosystems with high C sink capacity. Depleted soil organic C (SOC) pools of reclaimed mine soil (RMS) ecosystems can be restored through conversion to an appropriate land use and adoption of recommended management practices (RMPs). The objectives of this paper are to (1) synthesize available information on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from coal mining and combustion activities, (2) understand mechanisms of SOC sequestration and its protection, (3) identify factors affecting C sequestration potential in RMSs, (4) review available methods for the estimation of ecosystem C budget (ECB), and (5) identify knowledge gaps to enhance C sink capacity of RMS ecosystems and prioritize research issues. The drastic perturbations of soil by mining activities can accentuate CO2 emission through mineralization, erosion, leaching, changes in soil moisture and temperature regimes, and reduction in biomass returned to the soil. The reclamation of drastically disturbed soils leads to improvement in soil quality and development of soil pedogenic processes accruing the benefit of SOC sequestration and additional income from trading SOC credits. The SOC sequestration potential in RMS depends on amount of biomass production and return to soil, and mechanisms of C protection. The rate of SOC sequestration ranges from 0.1 to 3.1 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) and 0.7 to 4 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) in grass and forest RMS ecosystem, respectively. Proper land restoration alone could off-set 16 Tg CO2 in the U.S. annually. However, the factors affecting C sequestration and protection in RMS leading to increase in microbial activity, nutrient availability, soil aggregation, C build up, and soil profile development must be better understood in order to formulate guidelines for development of an holistic approach to sustainable management of these ecosystems. The ECBs of RMS ecosystems are not well understood. An ecosystem method of evaluating ECB of RMS ecosystems is proposed.     

The influence of urbanization on vegetation carbon pools under a tele-coupling framework in China

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Carbon emissions will exacerbate the process of global warming, and urbanization can cause carbon loss from terrestrial ecosystems by occupying...     

Towards a general relationship between climate change and biodiversity: an example for plant species in Europe

Climate change is one of the main factors that will affect biodiversity in the future and may even cause species extinctions. We suggest a methodology to derive a general relationship between biodiversity change and global warming. In conjunction with other pressure relationships, our relationship can help to assess the combined effect of different pressures to overall biodiversity change and indicate areas that are most at risk. We use a combination of an integrated environmental model (IMAGE) and climate envelope models for European plant species for several climate change scenarios to estimate changes in mean stable area of species and species turnover. We show that if global temperature increases, then both species turnover will increase, and mean stable area of species will decrease in all biomes. The most dramatic changes will occur in Northern Europe, where more than 35% of the species composition in 2100 will be new for that region, and in Southern Europe, where up to 25% of the species now present will have disappeared under the climatic circumstances forecasted for 2100. In Mediterranean scrubland and natural grassland/steppe systems, arctic and tundra systems species turnover is high, indicating major changes in species composition in these ecosystems. The mean stable area of species decreases mostly in Mediterranean scrubland, grassland/steppe systems and warm mixed forests.     

The impact of climate change and its uncertainty on carbon storage in Switzerland

Projected future climate change will alter carbon storage in forests, which is of pivotal importance for the national carbon balance of most countries. Yet, national-scale assessments are largely lacking. We evaluated climate impacts on vegetation and soil carbon storage for Swiss forests using a dynamic vegetation model. We considered three novel climate scenarios, each featuring a quantification of the inherent uncertainty of the underlying climate models. We evaluated which regions of Switzerland would benefit or lose in terms of carbon storage under different climates, and which abiotic factors determine these patterns. The simulation results showed that the prospective carbon storage ability of forests depends on the current climate, the severity of the change, and the time required for new species to establish. Regions already prone to drought and heat waves under current climate will likely experience a decrease in carbon stocks under prospective ‘extreme’ climate change, while carbon storage in forests close to the upper treeline will increase markedly. Interestingly, when climate change is severe, species shifts can result in increases in carbon stocks, but when there is only slight climate change, climate conditions may reduce growth of extant species while not allowing for species shifts, thus leading to decreases in carbon stocks.     

农田固碳措施对温室气体减排影响的研究进展

农田是CO2,CH4和N2O三种温室气体的重要排放源,在全球范围内农业生产活动贡献了约14%的人为温室气体排放量,以及58%的人为非CO2排放,不合理的农田管理措施强化了农田温室气体排放源特征,弱化了农田固碳作用。土壤碳库作为地球生态系统中最活跃的碳库之一,同时也是温室气体的重要源/汇。研究表明通过采取合理的农田管理措施,既可起到增加土壤碳库、减少温室气体排放的目的,又能提高土壤质量。农田土壤碳库除受温度、降水和植被类型的影响外,还在很大程度上受施肥量、肥料类型、秸秆还田量、耕作措施和灌溉等农田管理措施的影响。本文通过总结保护性耕作/免耕,秸秆还田,氮肥管理,水分管理,农学及土地利用变化等农田管理措施,探寻增强农田土壤固碳作用,减少农田温室气体排放的合理途径。农田碳库的稳定/增加,对于保证全球粮食安全与缓解气候变化趋势具有双重的积极意义。在我国许多有关土壤固碳与温室气体排放的研究尚不系统或仅限于短期研究,这也为正确评价各种固碳措施对温室气体排放的影响增加了不确定性。     

青海省近20年森林植被碳储量变化及其现状分析

基于林业生态功能和青海省森林资源清查数据,采用森林植被生物量换算因子连续函数法,系统估算与分析青海省森林植被碳储量、碳密度,研究其近20 a碳储量变化并进行现状分析。结果表明：(1)青海省森林碳储量为11 182 64222 t,占同时期全国总碳储量的198%,青海省森林生态系统中面积占较大比重的中龄林,其碳储量尚未达到最大,有较大发展空间;(2)青海省近20 a天然林类型中碳储量较大的前4种分别是：柏木（Cupressus funebris）、桦木（Betula）、杨树（Populus）、云杉（Picea asperata）天然林,表明这几种天然林在青海省森林植被中占有重要的地位,其集中分布对区域生态功能的发挥起主导作用;(3)所采用的碳储量估算方法尚存不足,在以后计算中应考虑根据不同林分类型的含碳量进行计算     

Characteristics of Carbon Storage and Density in Different Layers of Forest Ecosystems

Characteristics of carbon storage and density in different layers of forest ecosystems should be studied comprehensively and in more detail. Using forest inventory data in combination with field survey data, we explored the characteristics of carbon storage and density in different layers of forest ecosystems in Liaoning Province of China. Results showed that total carbon storage was 813.034 Tg C. The carbon storage of soil layer accounted for 81.0% of the total storage with 658.783 Tg C, followed by those of arbor, litter and shrub layers with 128.403 Tg C (15.8%), 22.723 Tg C (2.8%) and 3.125 Tg C (0.4%), respectively. The average carbon density for the forest ecosystems were 183.571 Mg C ha^–1, with soil layer (148.744 Mg C ha^–1) being the highest one, followed by arbor layer (28.992 Mg C ha^–1), litter layer (5.131 Mg C ha^–1) and shrub-grass layer (0.706 Mg C ha^–1). Carbon storage in different forest ecosystems varied from 1.595 to 319.161 Tg C, while C density ranged from 165.067 to 235.947Mg C ha^–1, with the highest and lowest values being observed in soil layer and shrub-grass layers, respectively, implying that soil is the main body of forest carbon storage. Young-aged forests accounted for a greater proportion of forests in the Province than forests in other age classes; and proper management of forests could increase the carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystems. The comparison with previous estimations of carbon storage for forest ecosystem implied that methods and data used for forest carbon storage estimation affected the results of estimates obviously.     

Coastal hazard risk assessment for small islands: assessing the impact of climate change and disaster reduction measures on Ebeye (Marshall Islands)

Small island states around the world are among the areas most vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise. In this paper, we present results from an innovative methodology for a quantitative assessment of multiple hazards on coastal risks, driven by different hydro-meteorological events, and including the effects of climate change. Moreover, we take an additional step by including in the methodology the option to assess and compare the effectiveness of possible disaster risk reduction measures. The methodology is applied to a real case study at the island of Ebeye (the Republic of the Marshall Islands). An example is provided in which a rock revetment is implemented as a risk reduction measure for the island. Results show that yearly expected damages may increase, by the end of the century, by a factor of three to four, depending on the sea level rise scenario considered, while the number of yearly affected people may double. Putting a cap on the temperature increase (e.g. 1.5 vs. 2 °C) according to the Paris Agreement may reduce damages and number of affected people by about 20 and 15%, respectively. However, impacts for same warming levels can vary substantially among different emission scenarios. Disaster risk reduction measures can be useful for mitigating risks in current and future situations but should be incorporated within long-term adaptive planning for these islands.     

Drastic reduction in the potential habitats for alpine and subalpine vegetation in the Pyrenees due to twenty-first-century climate change

Recent climate change is already affecting both ecosystems and the organisms that inhabit them, with mountains and their associated biota being particularly vulnerable. Due to the high conservation value of mountain ecosystems, reliable science-based information is needed to implement additional conservation efforts in order to ensure their future. This paper examines how climate change might impact on the distribution of the main alpine and subalpine vegetation in terms of losses of suitable area in the Oriental Pyrenees. The algorithm of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to relate current environmental conditions (climate, topography, geological properties) to present data for the studied vegetation units, and time and space projections were subsequently carried out considering climate change predictions for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080. All models predicted rising altitude trends for all studied vegetation units. Moreover, the analysis of future trends under different climate scenarios for 2080 suggests an average loss in potential ranges of 92.3–99.9 % for alpine grasslands, 76.8–98.4 % for subalpine (and alpine) scrublands and 68.8–96.1 % for subalpine forest. The drastic reduction in the potential distribution areas for alpine grasslands, subalpine scrublands and Pinus uncinata forests highlights the potential severity of the effects of climate change on vegetation in the highest regions of the Pyrenees. Thus, alpine grasslands can be expected to become relegated to refuge areas (summit areas), with their current range being taken over by subalpine scrublands. Furthermore, subalpine forest units will probably become displaced and will occupy areas that currently present subalpine scrub vegetation.     

Risk management strategies to cope with climate change in grassland production: an illustrative case study for the Swiss plateau

In this paper, we assess climate change impacts on an intensively managed grassland system at the Swiss Plateau using the process-based grassland model PROGRASS. Taking the CO₂ fertilization into account, we find increasing yield levels (in the range of 10–24%) and sharp increases in production risks for an illustrative climate change scenario that suggests a marked increase in temperature and decrease in summer rainfall. Climate change–induced increases in the coefficients of variation of grassland yields are in the range of 21 and 50%. This finding underpins that additional risk management strategies are needed to cope with climate-change impacts on grassland production. The outputs from the grassland model are evaluated economically using certainty equivalents, i.e., accounting for mean quasi rents and production risks. To identify potential risk management strategies under current and future climatic conditions, we consider adjustments of production intensity and farm-level yield insurance. The impact of climate change on production intensities is found to be ambiguous: farmers’ will increase intensity under unconstrained production conditions, but will decrease production intensity in the presence of a cross-compliance scheme. Our results also show that the considered insurance scheme is a powerful tool to manage climate risks in grassland production under current and future conditions because it can reduce the coefficients of variation of quasi rents by up to 50%. However, we find that direct payments tend to reduce farmers’ incentives to use such insurance scheme.     

气候变化对白洋淀湿地的影响

生态系统对气候变化的影响和响应的敏感性研究是全球变化研究的一个重要内容。近年来,华北地区气候以暖干为主,这种趋势在一定程度上加剧了华北地区的水危机。特定的水文条件是湿地形成与维持的驱动因子,因此湿地生态系统对气候变化尤为敏感。以华北地区内陆湖泊白洋淀为研究对象,通过分析白洋淀过去40年气候、水文与生态系统发展变化过程及湿地生态与影响因子之间的相关关系,确定湿地退化的主导生态因子,探寻湿地退化的驱动机制。从而得出以下结论：1960年以来,白洋淀湿地水位降低,水量减少,面积萎缩,干淀频繁,生物多样性减少;气候变化在白洋淀湿地退化中起决定作用,其中降水对湿地的影响最大。气候变化主要通过改变湿地的水文特征,减少湿地水源补给,增加水分消耗,使湿地退化萎缩。人为因素在一定程度上加剧了这种趋势。     

气候变化下21世纪上海长江口地区降水变化趋势分析

近百年来,以全球变暖为主要特征的气候与环境发生了重大变化,在此条件下,气候变化对自然生态系统的影响越来越大,特别是对水资源的负面影响尤为明显,包括水资源数量、质量及其时空分布,水资源开发利用程度,供用水结构以及产水、供水、用水、耗水、排水之间的关系等。上海长江口地区是我国经济发展核心区,而南水北调东线工程实施后,长江口的流量,以及海水的入侵都会直接影响到上海的发展,因此未来百年该区域的降水量在气候变化影响下的变化趋势对区域发展有着一定的影响作用。利用IPCC 数据分发中心提供的CCCma模式的4种模拟结果,分析了在全球气候变化下,由于人类活动影响、温室气体增加等共同作用时,长江口地区未来50～100年的降水量变化情景。结果表明,降水量总的会呈现上升趋势,并且降水强度的变化也越来越明显。     

Evaluating the economic effects of climate change on the European sardine fishery

This study evaluates the economic effects of climate change on one of the most relevant fisheries of the Iberian Peninsula, the European sardine fishery; a fishing ground that is particularly sensitive to environmental impacts. For this, the sea surface temperature is introduced into the problem as an additional variable. This variable allows for the gathering of climate change evidence and its repercussions on the oceans and, consequently, on the marine life and ecosystems. Various plausible scenarios are posed with respect to the trends involving the sea surface temperature. The results show that if the trend of rising surface temperatures continues in the Iberian-Atlantic fishing grounds, both the sardine biomass and the expected profits will noticeably decrease. The biomass and profits will further decrease with greater intensity if the immediate effects of global warming on sea surface temperature become more significant. On the other hand, in a palliation of global warming scenario, both variables decrease to a lesser degree.     

Impacts of climate change on surface water quality in relation to drinking water production

Besides climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological risks, the consequences on water quality is just beginning to be studied. This review aims at proposing a synthesis of the most recent existing interdisciplinary literature on the topic. After a short presentation about the role of the main factors (warming and consequences of extreme events) explaining climate change effects on water quality, the focus will be on two main points. First, the impacts on water quality of resources (rivers and lakes) modifying parameters values (physico-chemical parameters, micropollutants and biological parameters) are considered. Then, the expected impacts on drinking water production and quality of supplied water are discussed. The main conclusion which can be drawn is that a degradation trend of drinking water quality in the context of climate change leads to an increase of at risk situations related to potential health impact.