Modelling livelihoods and household resilience to droughts using Bayesian networks

Over the last four decades, the Indian government has been investing heavily in watershed development (WSD) programmes that are intended to improve the livelihoods of rural agrarian communities and maintain or improve natural resource condition. Given the massive investment in WSD in India, and the recent shift from micro-scale programmes (<500 ha) to meso-scale (~5000 ha) clusters, robust methodological frameworks are needed to measure and analyse impacts of interventions across landscapes as well as between and within communities. In this paper, the sustainable livelihoods framework is implemented using Bayesian networks (BNs) to develop models of drought resilience and household livelihoods. Analysis of the natural capital component model provides little evidence that watershed development has influenced household resilience to drought and indicators of natural capital, beyond an increased area of irrigation due to greater access to groundwater. BNs have proved a valuable tool for implementing the sustainable livelihoods framework in a retrospective evaluation of implemented WSD programmes. Many of the challenges of evaluating watershed interventions using BNs are the same as for other analytical approaches. These are reliance on retrospective studies, identification and measurement of relevant indicators and isolating intervention impacts from contemporaneous events. The establishment of core biophysical and socio-economic indicators measured through longitudinal household surveys and monitoring programmes will be critical to the success of BNs as an evaluation tool for meso-scale WSD.     

Exploring paradoxes in the search for sustainable livelihoods: a case study from Tanzania

Many aspects of the relationship between conservation and livelihoods are well documented in the literature both the positive synergies and the negative implications of pursuing one priority over the other. This paper describes research that explored the specific influences in household decision-making in park adjacent communities in Tanzania to determine whether conservation and sustainable resource utilization was an influencing factor. While conservation did not appear to be a significant influence, productivity of the natural resource base to maintain livelihood activity and well-being was a prime driver of household decisions. However, in articulating the challenges faced by households a number of paradoxes became apparent. This paper highlights four paradoxes from the research relating to: the need for capital to support productivity improvement; the approaches for perceived needed intensification of resource utilization; the dependence on government for solutions; and the assessment process of the range of livelihood options. We present the research findings related to these four paradoxes and present potential actions for resolving these dilemmas.     

Distribution of benefits based on household participation roles in decentralized conservation within Kanchenjunga Conservation Area Project,Nepal

Kanchenjunga Conservation Area is located in the remote and sparsely populated mountainous region of Eastern Nepal. It has been locally managed as a decentralized Integrated Conservation and Development Project since 2006, the first of its kind in Asia. Major international donor agencies sponsor programs to empower and strengthen the capacity of local communities to manage their natural resources, while concurrently improving livelihood opportunities. We surveyed 205 randomly selected households throughout the project area to assess the factors that influence household participation roles in management and management groups, and to evaluate how benefits from program involvement were distributed among the community. Overall, the distribution of benefits was unequal: households with higher level participation roles had increased access to financial credit and capacity development trainings. Social variables such as age, level of education among head of households, the highest level education among household adults, and household size predicted participation. The region is economically homogeneous; therefore, economic factors such as remittances, off-farm income and the quantity of landholdings or livestock did not predict household participation roles. Our results demonstrate the importance of targeting and empowering disadvantaged households in decentralized conservation programs, including educating members about the relationship between participation and equitable distribution of benefits.     

Forest income and dependency in lowland Bolivia

Forests contribute to livelihoods of rural people throughout the tropics. This paper adds to the emerging body of quantitative knowledge on absolute and relative economic importance, through both cash and subsistence income, of moist forests to households. Qualitative contextual information was collected in six villages in lowland Bolivia, followed by a structured survey of randomly selected households (n = 118) that included four quarterly income surveys. We employed a novel data collection approach that allows detailed estimation of total household accounts, including sources of forest income. We estimated the average forest income share of total annual household income (forest dependency) at 20%, ranging from 18 to 24%. Adding environmental income increased the average to 26%, being fairly constant across income quartiles at 24–28%. Absolute levels of forest income increased with total household income, while forest dependency was the highest in the best-off income quartile—the primary harvesters of forest products are better-off households. The pattern of high forest dependency among better-off households has also been reported from other countries, indicating that this pattern may be more common than advocated by conventional wisdom. Using ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions, we found significant determinants of absolute forest income to be household size, sex of household head and area of cultivated land; the significant determinants for forest dependency were level of education, whether household head was born in village and whether household was food self-sufficient. Better-off households were able to realise cash income from forests, while poorer households—in particular if headed by women—were more reliant on subsistence forest income. We argue that the differential patterns of forest income across income quartiles should be considered in future development interventions and that findings indicate a potential for forests to contribute to moving households out of poverty.     

基于参与式社区评估法的泾河流域景观管理问题分析

参与式社区评估法既兼顾了景观管理中的地理变量,同时还将社会经济因素纳入了考虑范畴,是深入进行问题分析客观有效的方法之一。本文采用参与式社区评估法,运用问题矩阵和问题树分析,对泾河流域景观管理中存在的问题和利益相关者的认知进行了分析。研究发现,绝大多数利益相关者认为土壤侵蚀已成为第一严重的问题,其次是土地生产力低下、自然灾害、植被破坏等。尽管当地公众已经认识到了土壤侵蚀的严重危害,但在安排土地利用方式时,却很少考虑土壤侵蚀带来的危害,仍然从事着自给自足的粮食生产活动。     

Watershed development in India. 2. New approaches for managing externalities and meeting sustainability requirements

This paper recognises the need for a revision of watershed development policy in India in relation to the planning of development interventions involving agricultural intensification and rainwater harvesting and the need for new approaches to assist the planning process. Building on, and using as an example, the results of biophysical and societal impact studies carried out on two watershed development projects in Karnataka three new management/dissemination tools, are suggested. These are (1) the web-based geographical information systems exploratory, climate land assessment and impact management tool dissemination tool for disseminating to policymakers and non-specialist stakeholders the downstream impacts of watershed interventions, (2) the ‘quadrant’ approach for ensuring that sustainability criteria are met and (3) Bayesian networks to investigate the biophysical and societal impacts of interventions. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue     

Evaluating intervention options to achieve environmental benefits in the residential sector

Government intervention schemes in the form of policy instruments and financial incentives or rebates can have a major influence on the adoption of technologies by residential consumers to reduce their natural resource consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the pattern and rate of consumer uptake of voluntary schemes are not always well-understood or easily taken into account in future scenarios analyses. This paper presents an innovative extension of the Bass diffusion model that has been integrated with multi-criteria analysis to enable explicit consideration and balancing of the impacts of technology cost, financial benefits, demographic suitability and household income on the likelihood of adoption. This ‘Intervention Options’ model is formulated into a constrained integer programming problem to allow optimisation of the size and timing of government rebates to maximise adoption rate and, ultimately, environmental benefits. The model’s capability is demonstrated using an Australian case study of 25,000 households, and historical information on the uptake of solar hot water and solar photovoltaic panels in Brisbane, Queensland. Case study results reveal new insights and important context-relevant trends that could assist policy makers to substantially improve the effectiveness of intervention schemes to achieve environmental goals within desired budgets.     

Community forestry management and livelihood development in northwest China: integration of governance, project design, and community participation

In projects of community development and natural resource management, local residents collaborate with government and NGOs on decisions about forest management and participate in programs designed to improve livelihoods while sustaining natural resources. This paper uses case studies and survey data in Gansu province of northwest China to explore social, ecological, and economic outcomes of community-based co-management (CBCM). Findings show that CBCM appears to have significantly increased livelihoods for local community residents overall. Forest condition and attitudes about forest conservation were also improved. However, economic benefits were not enjoyed uniformly within the communities because, although CBCM projects are nominally available to all, certain subgroups within communities are less likely to participate. Greater education, being married, and access to information are all strongly correlated with participation and thus the economic benefits of CBCM projects. Women, although they frequently participate in household decisions, are infrequent participants in CBCM projects, perhaps because project design does not meet their needs. Future improvements to CBCM project design should include increased access to information, education, and equitable treatment of diverse stakeholders in the decision-making process. Such improvements would likely lead to improvements in livelihoods as well as more sustainable forest management and conservation.     

Achieving sustainability by introducing alternative livelihoods

The millennium ecosystem assessment report on global assessment of desertification has highlighted its worldwide impacts on the environment—increasing dust storms, floods and global warming—as well as on societies and economies. It links sustainable management of resources, and inter alia well-being of dryland populations, to reducing societal pressures on dryland ecosystems through adoption of alternative livelihoods. This paper, in combination with a companion paper by Safriel and Adeel, presents the conceptual underpinnings of this approach as well as examples of how innovative approaches for creating livelihoods can help reduce the pressure on marginal drylands. Three case studies presented are based on activities undertaken within a joint international project called sustainable management of marginal drylands. First, introduction of chicken farming to farmers in Hunshundake Sandland in northern China has reduced the pressure on grasslands and led to a major recovery of these ecosystems. Second, development of desert-based aquaculture, with accompanied longer-term storage of water, on the margins of the Cholistan desert in Pakistan has provided a new source of income for the villagers. Third, development of a new income-generating activity based on soap production from olive oil in Dana Biosphere Reserve in Jordan has demonstrated that traditional olive farming can be linked to community-based innovation to create a new, high-demand market for goods. Working with communities to develop new, sustainable livelihoods that reduce pressure on marginal drylands can thus be used as powerful tool for overcoming and reversing desertification.     

江西省上饶县农户水土保持投资行为机理与实证模型

以农户调查数据为基础,通过对农户水土保持行为机理分析,结合研究区域实际,确定区域经济发展水平、农户兼业经济行为、农业经营规模、劳动力状况等4大类因素为影响农户进行水土保持投入的主要因素,并进一步细化成9项具体指标。通过SPSS软件对各项指标与水土保持投入行为进行相关性分析,建立多元线性回归模型,发现农户兼业经济行为、农业经营规模是影响农户进行水土保持投入的主要限制因子。由于兼业和规模经营对农业收入的依赖程度较低,且防范农业风险的能力较强,农户往往不愿意进行水土保持投资。家庭收入主要来源于农业,以及农业人口比重较高的农户,往往会在水土保持上投入较多的时间和资金。针对农业劳动力不足、农业经营规模小等现状提出如何激励农户水土保持投资行为,以进一步促进水土流失治理的相关建议。     

A modeling analysis of the sustainability of ecotourism in Belize

Over the past two decades, ecotourism has emerged as an important conservation strategy, especially in the Tropics where a diversity of species and habitats are threatened by traditional forms of development. However, questions remain about the sustainability of ecotourism in terms of distributions of income to local people and degradation of ecosystems visited by the ecotourists. In this study, a computer simulation model was used to study the possible long-term patterns of ecotourism at the country scale for Belize, Central America. The model includes state variables for natural ecosystems and tourism infrastructure with a submodel for global oil supply. It was simulated over a 100-year period as an EXCEL spreadsheet with a time step of 1?year. In all of the simulations, a decline over time in income from ecotourists was found due to increases in the price of oil and due to environmental impacts by tourism. Conservation efforts can slow the declines, but ultimately, the system is shown to be unsustainable. The results are discussed in the context of long-term conservation potential in Belize.     

流域土地利用变化的长周期水文效应及管理策略

长周期水文效应作为不同强度暴雨事件的综合反映，对流域规划和管理决策非常重要。以太湖地区蠡河流域为研究区，通过解译1984年、1995年和2000年3个时段TM/ETM获得土地利用分布地图，分析其土地利用变化的模式，并基于研究区30年的降水序列，应用长周期水文分析模型L-THIA（Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment），计算3个时段土地利用特征对暴雨地表径流的影响，分析不同土地利用类型水文效应的敏感性，在此基础上总结了减少流域水文效应的土地利用管理策略。分析结果显示，该区土地利用有明显变化，主要表现为水田、旱田向建筑用地的转化，从1984年到2002年，城镇及居民地扩展占流域总面积的4.199 4 ％，地表径流量增加了6.170 ％，不同土地利用方式的水文效应有较大差别，林地、湖滩湿地的敏感性最大，其次是水田和旱田。     

Assessment of adoption and impact of rainwater harvesting technologies on rural farm household income: the case of rainwater harvesting ponds in Rwanda

Rainwater harvesting is increasingly viewed as a major strategy for enhancing agricultural productivity and boosting farm income in many drought-prone areas. While this technology is being promoted in many developing countries, there is conflicting evidence in the literature about its impact on welfare of farm households. This study uses propensity score matching and discrete choice regression techniques to assess the impact of rainwater harvesting ponds on farm household income and factors that influence adoption of such technologies in Rwanda. It finds that households with rainwater harvesting ponds have significantly higher income than their counterparts of comparable observable characteristics. It further finds evidence that increase in farm income occurs via increased input use and that household size, asset endowments and participation in farmer organizations condition adoption of rainwater harvesting ponds. The study concludes that adoption of rainwater harvesting technologies has positive benefits on farm households. It discusses the policy implications that adoption of rainwater harvesting ponds presents a pathway for reducing rural poverty.     

Assessing and selecting interventions for river water quality improvement within the context of population growth and urbanization: a case study of the Cau River basin in Vietnam

In this study, a multi-criteria methodology is proposed to identify and prioritize interventions for water quality improvement with the aid of computer simulation models. The methodology can be used to elaborate and compare future socio-economic development scenarios to select the best interventions based on three criteria: (1) ideas of experts and stakeholders about the importance of scenarios, (2) impacts of each scenario on surface water quality in watershed, and (3) benefit–cost analysis for each scenario. A score is computed for each scenario based on a weighted sum technique which enables to take into consideration different level of importance for the three criteria. The methodology is applied to Cau River basin in Vietnam, with the aid of a computer tool, to assess interventions for river water quality improvement within the context of population growth and urbanization. The results show that fast future population growth in upstream has significant impacts. In 2020, an increase of 116 % of the population in Bac Kan town can lead to an increase of 120 and 135 % in BOD₅ and NH₄ ⁺ median concentrations, respectively, with the implementation of a treatment plant for 10,000 people in Bac Kan town. Therefore, the increase of the domestic wastewater treatment plant’s capacity in Bac Kan town, at least twice as the projection of local government, is necessary. These results will help decision makers to select the best interventions for Cau River basin management.     

城镇化进程中的农民生活用水研究

目前,我国有关农村居民生活用水的系统研究相当缺乏。对地处上海市浦东快速城市化区域的8个村庄进行随机入户调查。在对调查数据进行整理和统计分析的基础上,系统研究当地农民的生活用水行为和影响因素。研究表明：（1）被访农民普遍认为自来水价格过高。家庭收入水平是决定被访农民对水价态度的主要影响因素。（2）自来水价格主要对农户的洗衣行为产生显著影响。认为自来水价格高的农户更倾向于用井水洗衣。（3）影响农户自来水用水量的显著变量包括：农户家庭常住人口、自来水价格、洗衣水源和洗澡方式。（4）被访农民普遍具有节水意识,但大都局限于“节约使用自来水,减少自来水水费”这个层面。提高农民的水污染控制和水资源保护意识,正确引导其井水抽取和生活污水排放行为,促进农村污水收集和治理项目的普及和正常运行,以及完善地下水资源的保护和管理机制是现阶段当地保障农村生活用水安全的工作重点     

中等收入阶层幸福感测度及影响因素研究

基于2014年中国质量观测调查的数据,实证测度了转型时期中国中等收入阶层的幸福感,并运用统计描述、相关性分析以及结构方程模型等方法,从财富拥有、社会福利与个体能力三个维度分析了幸福感的影响因素与作用机制。研究结果表明:1中等收入阶层幸福感女性高于男性,农村人群高于城市人群,已婚人士高于未婚人士,在不同的年龄阶段、教育程度、职业类型以及家庭结构中,幸福感呈现明显差异;2个人目标实现能力、社会公平与物价稳定是影响中等收入阶层幸福感最为显著的因素,而家庭消费、消费环境以及社会治安是相对不显著的影响因素;3财富拥有、社会福利会以及个体能力三个维度的因素均与幸福感显著正相关,其中个体能力维度对幸福感的正向作用最大;个体能力除了直接正向作用于幸福感之外,还会通过正向地影响财富拥有及社会福利来间接作用幸福感。因此,当前中国中等收入阶层幸福感的关键影响因素在于个体能力维度。进一步优化经济社会发展结构与环境,为中产阶层个体能力展现提供公平畅通的渠道,是转型时期提升中等收入阶层幸福感的首要之义。     

Community livelihood and its dependence on nature resources under pressure of conservation

Conflict between conservation and community livelihood is a significant issue in China.Based on Sustainable Livelihood Framework(SLA),this study systematically analyzed livelihoods assets of a community in a Yunnan snub-nosed monkey conservation area and found that the livelihood pentagon of the community was shaped by multiple but frail and unstable income sources,abundant natural resources with restricted use right,underutilized labors,inadequate financial resources,inconvenient physical capital and weak social capital.Villagers'income heavily depended on forest,and grazing and nontimber forest products(NTFP)collection are common and major income sources for villagers.However,differentiation of income dependence on forest among villagers'groups showed that there is no close correlation between the level of income and the level of income dependence on forest.Households'daily life also heavily depended on the forest due to heating and pig-feed cooking;hence,fuelwood cannot be easily replaced by any other energy resource for a long period.     

A survey-based evaluation of community-based co-management of forest resources: a case study of Baishuijiang National Natural Reserve in China

Community-based co-management (CBCM) mechanisms for forest management have matured through the development of new economic analysis and common property theory. However, while many local CBCM mechanisms have been initiated in Chinese Natural Reserves, there are few objective, data-based evaluations of whether these mechanisms improve forest conservation and local livelihoods. This research uses Baishuijiang National Natural Reserve (BNNR) as a study case to evaluate China’s current CBCM mechanisms. The evaluation is based mainly on three criteria: efficiency, equality and sustainability of project operation. Survey data indicate that local CBCM mechanisms provide a wide-participation platform for local villagers, associated administration managers, research institutions and NGOs to join in forest resource protection work while improving local livelihood. CBCM projects have also facilitated a reduction in forest resource dependency, the improvement of household income and encouragement of local people to participate in forest resource protection. Our analysis suggests that most CBCM organizations have made progress in efficiency, equity and sustainability. However, further study should focus on how to deal with the lingering problems of inequity in responsibility and rights among CBCM committee members, poor distribution of benefits, insufficient program-design and management expertise, faulty information dissemination, and insufficient capital investment.     

Livelihood strategies in endemic livestock production systems in sub-humid zone of West Africa: trends,trade-offs and implications

Rural livelihoods in West Africa depend largely on livestock. The sub-humid and humid zones of the region, however, are highly affected by the tsetse flies, vector of trypanosomosis, by severely limiting livestock production and livelihood options. Endemic ruminant livestock breeds are trypanotolerant, but perceived as inferior compared to other breeds in terms of productivity. The paper shows trends of relative decline in endemic population as a result of increased crossbreeding, largely with zebu cattle and Sahelian sheep and goats, and considerable decline in habitat quality due to forest conversion, logging activities and bushfires. The trade-offs between livelihoods and income strategies and endemic ruminant and habitat conservation are captured by an understanding of the socio-economic conditions and potential drivers of breed choices and forest use within households and communities. The paper shows that livelihood analysis is an important step in understanding impacts and therefore responses to development projects and to ensure that the poorest categories are not excluded from development interventions.     

Distribution of health costs of pesticide use by household economy

We observed skewed distribution across household of benefits of pesticide use in vegetable farming in Nepal. However, economic burden or harm of pesticide use and exposure by household economy is poorly studied. It is hypothesized that exaggerated and incompetent pesticide use is likely to affect human health that may lead to decline in human productivity, and economic loss––that may further marginalize farmers. Thus, a study was conducted in the Ansi khola watershed of Kavrepalanchowk District of central Nepal. The primary aim of the study was to value risks of pesticide use and to estimate health costs of exposure by household category. We grouped household into “large-scale” who owns more than 1 ha of agricultural land, “small-scale” having <0.5 ha and “medium-scale” in between >0.5 and <1 ha. Data were collected through (1) an initial household survey conducted from May to June 2008, (2) monthly visit surveys accomplished from June to November 2008 and (3) a final household survey conducted during November to December 2009. The cost of pesticide use and exposure was highest for medium-scale household; however, the economic burden in relation to incomes was the highest for small-scale household. On the basis of area under vegetables, small-scale household incurred 23 % higher economic burdens compared to the large-scale household. Overall, the cost of pesticide use and exposure amounted 15 % of agricultural income and/or 5 % of gross household income. For small-scale households, the cost was equivalent to 18 % of agricultural income and 6 % of gross income. Small-scale households are not only deprived from benefits of agriculture intensification, but also incurred highest burden of pesticide use.