An Ecology of Prestige in New York City: Examining the Relationships Among Population Density,Socio-economic Status,Group Identity,and Residential Canopy Cover

Several social theories have been proposed to explain the uneven distribution of vegetation in urban residential areas: population density, social stratification, luxury effect, and ecology of prestige. We evaluate these theories using a combination of demographic and socio-economic predictors of vegetative cover on all residential lands in New York City. We use diverse data sources including the City’s property database, time-series demographic and socio-economic data from the US Census, and land cover data from the University of Vermont’s Spatial Analysis Lab (SAL). These data are analyzed using a multi-model inferential, spatial econometrics approach. We also examine the distribution of vegetation within distinct market categories using Claritas’ Potential Rating Index for Zipcode Markets (PRIZM?) database. These categories can be disaggregated, corresponding to the four social theories. We compare the econometric and categorical results for validation. Models associated with ecology of prestige theory are more effective for predicting the distribution of vegetation. This suggests that private, residential patterns of vegetation, reflecting the consumption of environmentally relevant goods and services, are associated with different lifestyles and lifestages. Further, our spatial and temporal analyses suggest that there are significant spatial and temporal dependencies that have theoretical and methodological implications for understanding urban ecological systems. These findings may have policy implications. Decision makers may need to consider how to most effectively reach different social groups in terms of messages and messengers in order to advance land management practices and achieve urban sustainability.     

Evaluation of a Regional Monitoring Program’s Statistical Power to Detect Temporal Trends in Forest Health Indicators

Forests are socioeconomically and ecologically important ecosystems that are exposed to a variety of natural and anthropogenic stressors. As such, monitoring forest condition and detecting temporal changes therein remain critical to sound public and private forestland management. The National Parks Service’s Vital Signs monitoring program collects information on many forest health indicators, including species richness, cover by exotics, browse pressure, and forest regeneration. We applied a mixed-model approach to partition variability in data for 30 forest health indicators collected from several national parks in the eastern United States. We then used the estimated variance components in a simulation model to evaluate trend detection capabilities for each indicator. We investigated the extent to which the following factors affected ability to detect trends: (a) sample design: using simple panel versus connected panel design, (b) effect size: increasing trend magnitude, (c) sample size: varying the number of plots sampled each year, and (d) stratified sampling: post-stratifying plots into vegetation domains. Statistical power varied among indicators; however, indicators that measured the proportion of a total yielded higher power when compared to indicators that measured absolute or average values. In addition, the total variability for an indicator appeared to influence power to detect temporal trends more than how total variance was partitioned among spatial and temporal sources. Based on these analyses and the monitoring objectives of the Vital Signs program, the current sampling design is likely overly intensive for detecting a 5 % trend·year^?1 for all indicators and is appropriate for detecting a 1 % trend·year^?1 in most indicators.     

The Effects of Population Density on Juvenile Growth Rate in White-Tailed Deer

Animal body size is driven by habitat quality, food availability, and nutrition. Adult size can relate to birth weight, to length of the ontogenetic growth period, and/or to the rate of growth. Data requirements are high for studying these growth mechanisms, but large datasets exist for some game species. In North America, large harvest datasets exist for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), but such data are collected under a variety of conditions and are generally dismissed for ecological research beyond local population and habitat management. We contend that such data are useful for studying the ecology of white-tailed deer growth and body size when analyzed at ordinal scale. In this paper, we test the response of growth rate to food availability by fitting a logarithmic equation that estimates growth rate only to harvest data from Fort Hood, Texas, and track changes in growth rate over time. Results of this ordinal scale model are compared to previously published models that include additional parameters, such as birth weight and adult weight. It is shown that body size responds to food availability by variation in growth rate. Models that estimate multiple parameters may not work with harvest data because they are prone to error, which renders estimates from complex models too variable to detect interannual changes in growth rate that this ordinal scale model captures. This model can be applied to harvest data, from which inferences about factors that influence animal growth and body size (e.g., habitat quality and nutritional availability) can be drawn.     

Recreational Stream Crossing Effects on Sediment Delivery and Macroinvertebrates in Southwestern Virginia,USA

Trail-based recreation has increased over recent decades, raising the environmental management issue of soil erosion that originates from unsurfaced, recreational trail systems. Trail-based soil erosion that occurs near stream crossings represents a non-point source of pollution to streams. We modeled soil erosion rates along multiple-use (hiking, mountain biking, and horseback riding) recreational trails that approach culvert and ford stream crossings as potential sources of sediment input and evaluated whether recreational stream crossings were impacting water quality based on downstream changes in macroinvertebrate-based indices within the Poverty Creek Trail System of the George Washington and Jefferson National Forest in southwestern Virginia, USA. We found modeled soil erosion rates for non-motorized recreational approaches that were lower than published estimates for an off-road vehicle approach, bare horse trails, and bare forest operational skid trail and road approaches, but were 13 times greater than estimated rates for undisturbed forests and 2.4 times greater than a 2-year old clearcut in this region. Estimated soil erosion rates were similar to rates for skid trails and horse trails where best management practices (BMPs) had been implemented. Downstream changes in macroinvertebrate-based indices indicated water quality was lower downstream from crossings than in upstream reference reaches. Our modeled soil erosion rates illustrate recreational stream crossing approaches have the potential to deliver sediment into adjacent streams, particularly where BMPs are not being implemented or where approaches are not properly managed, and as a result can negatively impact water quality below stream crossings.     

ESTIMATING NUTRIENT AND SEDIMENT THRESHOLD CRITERIA FOR BIOLOGICAL IMPAIRMENT IN PENNSYLVANIA WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: This study employs a simple nonlinear statistical approach to establish nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment concentration and unit area load thresholds to aid in the evaluation of aquatic biological health of watersheds within the state of Pennsylvania. Flow, nitrogen and phosphorus species, sediment, basin area, land cover, and biological assessment data were assembled for 29 Pennsylvania watersheds. For each watershed, rating curves depicting flow versus load relationships were developed using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA's) storage and retrieval database (STORET) flow and concentration data, then applied to daily flow data obtained from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) daily flow gauging stations to estimate daily load between 1989 and 1999. The load estimates and concentration data were then sorted into six sets of data: mean annual unit area nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads; and average nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment concentrations. Results of Mann‐Whitney tests conducted on each of the six datasets indicate that there is a statistically significant difference between the concentrations and unit area loads of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment in impaired and unimpaired watersheds. Concentration thresholds, calculated as the midpoint between the impaired and unimpaired watersheds’ 95 percent confidence interval for the median, were estimated to be 2.01 mg/L, 0.07 mg/L, and 197.27 mg/L for nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment, respectively. Annual unit area load thresholds were estimated to be equal to 8.64 kg/ha, 0.30 kg/ha, and 785.29 kg/ha, respectively, for nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment species.     

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ANNUAL RUNOFF AND WATERSHED AREA FOR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: As part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's effort to determine the long-term effects of acidic deposition on surface water chemistry, annual runoff was estimated for about 1000 ungaged sites in the eastern U.S. using runoff contour maps. One concern in using contour maps was that a bias may be introduced in the runoff estimates due to the size of the 1000 ungaged sites relative to the size of the watersheds used in developing the maps. To determine if a bias was present the relationship between the annual runoff (expressed as depth) and the watershed area for the Northeast (NE) and Southern Blue Ridge Province (SBRP) was tested using five regional data bases. One short-term data base (1984 Water Year, n = 531) and two long-term data bases (1940–57, n = 134 and 1951–80, n = 342) were used in the NE. In the SBRP one short-term database (1984 Water Year, n = 531) and one long-term data base (1951–80, n = 60) were used. For the NE and the SBRP, runoff was not directly correlated with watershed area using the five regional databases. Also, runoff normalized by precipitation was not related to watershed area.     

ESTIMATING THE MEAN AND VARIANCE OF CENSORED PHOSPHORUS CONCENTRATIONS IN FLORIDA RAINFALL1

ABSTRACT: The total phosphorous (TP) concentrations in the South Florida rainfall have been recorded in weekly intervals with a detection limit (D_L) of 3.5 μg/L. As a large amount of the data is reported as below the D_L, appropriate statistical methods are needed for data analysis. Thus, an attempt was made to identify an appropriate method to estimate the mean and variance of the data. In particular, a method to separate the statistics for the below D_L portion from the estimated population statistics is proposed. The estimated statistics of the censored data are compared with the statistics of the uncensored data available from the recent years’ laboratory records. It was found that the one-step restricted maximum likelihood method is the most accurate for the wet TP data, and that the proposed method to combine the estimated statistics for TP < D_L portion and the sample statistics for TP ≥ D_L portion improves estimates compared to the conventional maximum likelihood estimates.     

Assessing Ecotourism from a Multi-stakeholder Perspective: Xingkai Lake National Nature Reserve,China

Ecotourism development is closely associated with the sustainability of protected natural areas. When facilitated by appropriate management, ecotourism can contribute to conservation and development, as well as the well-being of local communities. As such, ecotourism has been proposed and practiced in different forms in many places, including China. This study assesses ecotourism development at Xingkai Lake National Nature Reserve in Heilongjiang Province, China. Key informant interviews were conducted with representatives from the provincial Forestry Department, the Nature Reserve, and the local community. Observation was undertaken on three site visits and secondary data were collected. The potential for providing quality natural experiences is high and tourism development is occurring rapidly. However, current relationships between people, resources, and tourism have yet to provide mutual benefits necessary for successful ecotourism. The multi-stakeholder management style and the ambiguity of landownership within the nature reserve constitute structural difficulties for ecotourism management and operation. Although participation in ecotourism could provide a livelihood opportunity and interests in involvement in tourism have been identified among the local fishing community, current involvement is limited mainly due to the lack of mechanisms for participation. Therefore, it is recommended that management programs and government policies should be established to provide a platform for community participation in ecotourism. Then, a positive synergistic relationship between tourism, environment, and community could be developed. Planning and policy requirements are discussed for ecotourism development in protected areas in China.     

The Stakeholder Preference for Best Management Practices in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region

A qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews with 92 farmers and 42 policy managers in Wuxi County, the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, was conducted to identify stakeholder preferences for alternative best management practices (BMPs) and to determine the factors that affect their acceptance. Policy manager support for most of the practices was relatively stronger than support by farmers, except for the grade stabilization structure (GSS), hillside ditch (HD) and constructed wetland alternative, owing to their perceptions of soil benefits, economic advantages and environmental advantages. Farmers opposed those practices that occupied cultivated lands or changed the conventional planting methods, such as field border, conservation tillage (CT) and contour buffer strips. They tended to accept the BMPs with off-farm pollution reduction, such as GSS, riparian forest buffer and HD, and the BMPs associated with soil benefits, such as nutrient management and Terrace. The result that almost all respondents did not accept CT differed from reports in the existing literature. There is a significant correlation between the acceptance of some BMPs and the townships where the farmers lived (P ≤ 0.05). The environmental conditions and social factors would affect farmer support for BMPs, including local soil conditions, farming methods, economic income, education level and age. The economic advantages of the BMPs were the main motivation for farmers to accept the practices. Furthermore, intensive education efforts, financial incentives or economic subsidies may promote the adoption of the BMPs in our study area.     

MATHEMATICAL GENERALIZATION OF STREAM TEMPERATURE IN CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND1

ABSTRACT: The empirical fit of an annual harmonic function to stream temperature measurements in central New England can be improved by considering a harmonic period of less than 365 days instead of 365 or 366 days. Generalized equations, developed using periodic temperature data from 27 streamflow stations, allow predictions of stream temperature at any site given (1) the mean basin altitude (E), in meters above mean sea level, and (2) station latitude (LAT), in degrees. Stream temperature t, in degrees Celsius, on day number d, in days starting with January 1, is estimated as: in which, M = 31.48 – 0.0025 (E) ? 0.4635 (LAT) with standard error of estimate of 0.62°C, and τ= 1228.88 – 21.01 (LAT) with standard error of estimate of 14.1 days.     

The Leading Canadian NGOs’ Discourse on Fish Farming: From Ecocentric Intuitions to Biocentric Solutions

The development of the aquaculture industry in Canada has triggered a conflict of a scope never seen before. As stated in Young and Matthews’ The Aquaculture Controversy, this debate has “mushroomed over the past several decades to become one of the most bitter and stubborn face-offs over industrial development ever witnessed in Canada” (Young and Matthews in The aquaculture controversy in Canada. Activism, policy and contested science. UBC Press, Vancouver, p 3, 2010). It opposes a wide variety of actors: from industrial investors, scientists, politicians and environmentalists to Native associations and communities, citizens groups and local stakeholders. The opposition is fierce between those in favor of a flourishing and modern aquaculture of industrial nature and those who fear the dreadful consequences of such an industry. In particular, the possible implementation of biotechnology innovations, such as a genetically modified salmon, has made this debate coextensive with the GMO debate, thus multiplying the opposition’s spectrum of arguments against the industry. Throughout the debate, Canadian environmental NGOs like the Suzuki Foundation and Greenpeace Canada have assumed leadership over the opposition to aquaculture development with certain success. Their participation in the debate features numerous ethical concerns related to environmental health, a respect for wilderness and local human communities. Such a position can be associated overall with a form of ecocentric ethics or concern. Nevertheless, a careful examination of the technical solutions proposed by these NGOs reveals their embeddedness in biocentrism. Through the example taken from the Canadian debate on aquaculture development, this paper aims to highlight the conceptual difficulty of enacting ecocentric ethical positions beyond formal arguments. Because ecocentrism implies a true paradigm shift, not only in mentality, but also in the way we conceive our technical interventions in nature, biocentrism remains an important practical method to enact ethical positions related to environmental concerns in public debates.     

The discrepant epidemiology of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV)

The Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is a newly emerged infection in humans affecting the Arabian Peninsula, Europe, and North Africa. The source and persistence of the infection in humans remains unknown. The aim of this paper was to apply a risk analysis approach to the epidemiology of MERS-CoV and to understand the source of ongoing infections. The epidemiology of MERS-CoV was reviewed and compared to SARS. Each observed feature of MERS-CoV epidemiology was summarized and fitted to either an epidemic or one of two sporadic scenarios (either animal or deliberate release). As of May 2014, MERS-CoV has infected over 681 people and killed a further 204 over 2 years. In contrast, there were 8,273 cases and 775 deaths from SARS within 8 months. MERS-CoV has a more sporadic pattern unlike the clear epidemic pattern seen with SARS, and an unusual concentration of cases in the Middle East, without epidemics in other countries to which it has spread. SARS, with a higher reproductive number (R0), was eliminated from humans within 8 months of emerging, yet MERS-CoV, with a low R0 has persisted in humans over a far more prolonged period. This is at odds with the expected behavior of a virus with a low R0, which theoretically should not persist unless there are ongoing introductions of infection into humans, and poses the question “what is the source of continuing infections in humans?” A hospital outbreak in Al Ahsa, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), had a classic epidemic pattern with some human-to-human transmission. However, 3 different strains were identified in that outbreak, an unexpected and unexplained finding for what appears to be a single source outbreak. Since this outbreak in April 2013, there has been a large increase in new cases, mainly in KSA in April and May 2014, with no corresponding epidemics in other countries. Yet MERS-CoV was present in KSA over several mass gatherings (which predispose to epidemics), including the Hajj pilgrimage, without an epidemic arising. Furthermore, although the virus has been identified in bats and camels, the mode of ongoing transmission to humans remains uncertain. Although some cases appear to be transmitted from human to human, and a few have animal or camel exposure, many cases have no history of contact with either animals or human cases. A high proportion of asymptomatic or otherwise undetected cases have been postulated as an explanation for the unusual epidemiology, yet active surveillance does not support this. When the observed data were fitted to different disease patterns, the features of MERS-CoV fit better with a sporadic pattern, with evidence for either deliberate release or an animal source. There are many discrepancies in the observed epidemiology of MERS-CoV, which better fits a sporadic than an epidemic pattern. Possible explanations of the unusual features of the epidemiology include human-to-human transmission with a large proportion of undetected cases; or sporadic ongoing infections from a non-human source; or a combination of both. Possible sources of ongoing sporadic infection in humans include animals (camels appear the most likely source), or deliberate release. The latter could explain 3 strains being present in a single hospital outbreak. Genetic testing should be conducted to determine whether the virus is evolving to be more transmissible. Better ascertainment of mild or asymptomatic cases is also needed. Finally, the discrepant epidemiology warrants critical analysis of all possible explanations, and involvement of all stakeholders in biosecurity, and deliberate release must be seriously considered and at least acknowledged as a possibility.     

Communicating About Smoke from Wildland Fire: Challenges and Opportunities for Managers

Wildland fire and associated management efforts are dominant topics in natural resource fields. Smoke from fires can be a nuisance and pose serious health risks and aggravate pre-existing health conditions. When it results in reduced visibility near roadways, smoke can also pose hazardous driving conditions and reduce the scenic value of vistas. Communicating about smoke, whether in the preparation phases before a planned burn or during a wildfire event, can enable those at risk to make informed decisions to minimize their exposure to smoke or choose alternate activities that mitigate smoke completely. To date, very little research has been completed on the social aspects of smoke, such as communication or public perceptions. Here, we present findings from an exploratory study that examined challenges and opportunities related to communication (within agencies or to the public) for management of smoke from wildland fires. Interviews were conducted in California, Oregon, Montana, and South Carolina among a purposive sample of individuals, who are involved in fire or smoke management. Findings indicate that smoke poses several challenges to management agencies. Findings also provide insight into potential strategies to address such challenges by improving communication in both inter- and intra-agency situations as well as with members of the public. In particular, prioritizing fire and smoke-related communication within agencies, allocating agency resources specifically for training in communication and outreach endeavors, taking advantage of existing resources including informal social networks among the public, and building long-term relationships both between agencies and with the public were viewed as effective.     

Improving Survival and Growth of Planted Austrocedrus chilensis Seedlings in Disturbed Patagonian Forests of Argentina by Managing Understory Vegetation

This study was aimed at determining, under field conditions, early interactions between planted cypress seedlings and their associated shrubs in a mesic area of Andean Patagonia and, in a nursery, the effects of increasing light availability on cypress performance when soil water was not a limiting factor. The field experiment was performed in a former cypress–coihue mixed forest (42°02′S, 71°33′W), which was replaced in the 1970s by a plantation of radiata pine. In 2005, 800 cypress seedlings were planted under maqui shrubs in a clear-cut area of the pine stand. In 2007, two treatments were set: no-competition treatment ([NCT] i.e., the surrounding aboveground biomass was removed) and competition treatment ([CT] i.e., without disturbance). The nursery experiment (42°55′S, 71°21′W) consisted of two groups: “shade” (grown under shade cloth) and “sun” (grown at full sun) cypress seedlings. After one growing season, seedling survival and stem growth (in height and diameter) were determined at both sites. Furthermore, the growth rate of leaves, stems, and roots was determined in the nursery. In the field experiment, height growth and survival in NCT were significantly greater than in CT, and a competition process occurred between cypress and surrounding shrubs. In the nursery, sun plants grew more in diameter and increased root weight more than shade plants. Results also showed that in mesic areas of Patagonia, decreasing competition and increasing light levels produced stouter seedlings better adapted to support harsh environmental conditions. Therefore, the removal of protecting shrubs could be a good management practice to improve seedling establishment.     

Limits to Understory Plant Restoration Following Fuel-Reduction Treatments in a Piñon–Juniper Woodland

National fuel-reduction programs aim to reduce the risk of wildland fires to human communities and to restore forest and rangeland ecosystems to resemble their historical structure, function, and diversity. There are a number of factors, such as seed bank dynamics, post-treatment climate, and herbivory, which determine whether this latter goal may be achieved. Here, we examine the short-term (2 years) vegetation response to fuel-reduction treatments (mechanical mastication, broadcast burn, and pile burn) and seeding of native grasses on understory vegetation in an upland piñon–juniper woodland in southeast Utah. We also examine how wildlife herbivory affects the success of fuel-reduction treatments. Herbaceous cover increased in response to fuel-reduction treatments in all seeded treatments, with the broadcast burn and mastication having greater increases (234 and 160 %, respectively) in herbaceous cover than the pile burn (32 %). In the absence of seeding, herbaceous cover only increased in the broadcast burn (32 %). Notably, fuel-reduction treatments, but not seeding, strongly affected herbaceous plant composition. All fuel-reduction treatments increased the relative density of invasive species, especially in the broadcast burn, which shifted the plant community composition from one dominated by perennial graminoids to one dominated by annual forbs. Herbivory by wildlife reduced understory plant cover by over 40 % and altered plant community composition. If the primary management goal is to enhance understory cover while promoting native species abundance, our study suggests that mastication may be the most effective treatment strategy in these upland piñon–juniper woodlands. Seed applications and wildlife exclosures further enhanced herbaceous cover following fuel-reduction treatments.     

SPATIAL ANALYSIS FOR MONTHLY RAINFALL IN SOUTH FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Several methods have been developed to interpolate point rainfall data and integrate areal rainfall data from any network of stations. From previous studies, it can be concluded that models for spatial analysis of rainfall are dependent on topography, area of analysis, type of rainfall, and density of gauging network. The purpose of this study is to evaluate a set of six appropriate models for point and areal rainfall estimations over a 4000 square mile area in South Florida. In this study, a case of developing spatial continuity model for monthly rainfall from a database that had various lengths of records and missing data is documented. The spatial correlation and variogram models for monthly rainfall were developed. Six methods of spatial interpolation were applied and the results validated with historical observations. The results of the study indicate that the multiquadric, kriging, and optimal interpolation schemes are the best three methods for interpolation of monthly rainfall within the study area. The optimal and kriging methods have the advantage of providing estimates of the error of interpolation. The optimal interpolation method uses the spatial correlation function and the kriging method uses the variogram function. The two spatial functions are related. Either of the two methods provide good estimates of monthly point and areal rainfall in the study area.     

CO2 storage capacity estimation: Issues and development of standards

Associated with the endeavours of geoscientists to pursue the promise that geological storage of CO₂ has of potentially making deep cuts into greenhouse gas emissions, Governments around the world are dependent on reliable estimates of CO₂ storage capacity and insightful indications of the viability of geological storage in their respective jurisdictions. Similarly, industry needs reliable estimates for business decisions regarding site selection and development. If such estimates are unreliable, and decisions are made based on poor advice, then valuable resources and time could be wasted. Policies that have been put in place to address CO₂ emissions could be jeopardised. Estimates need to clearly state the limitations that existed (data, time, knowledge) at the time of making the assessment and indicate the purpose and future use to which the estimates should be applied. A set of guidelines for estimation of storage capacity will greatly assist future deliberations by government and industry on the appropriateness of geological storage of CO₂ in different geological settings and political jurisdictions. This work has been initiated under the auspices of the Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum (www.cslforum.org), and it is intended that it will be an ongoing taskforce to further examine issues associated with storage capacity estimation.     

Public reaction to the risks of energy technology

Implicit in every government decision on energy technology is a trade-off of a certain amount of risk in return for societal benefits. As a result of growing public concern over such risks, environmental analysts are increasingly being requested not only to describe potential adverse consequences but also to quantify their probability. However, this task is frustrated not only by inadequate experience with, and incomplete knowledge of, the causality of environmental impacts, but also by a disparity between individual and societal views of risk. While the societal view is based on objective risk functions andnet societal benefit, individuals tend to rely on subjective judgment, and consider the distribution as well as the amount of benefit. Thus, environmental risk assessments, produced by analysts on behalf of society as a whole, are likely to be quite speculative, and are unlikely to be reliable indicators of the acceptability of risk to the public.