Fusing strategic risk and futures methods to inform long-term strategic planning: case of water utilities

Risks and futures methods have complementary strengths as tools for managing strategic decisions under uncertainty. When combined, these tools increase organisational competency to evaluate and manage long-term risks, improving the flexibility and agility of the organisation to deal with gross uncertainties. Here, we set out a framework to guide the assessment of strategic risks for long-term business planning, based on its application at Portugal’s largest water utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres. Our approach extends strategic risk assessment by incorporating scenario planning—a futures approach used to help the utility move beyond single point forecast of risks to focus on critical dimensions of uncertainty that are fundamental to the resilience of corporate objectives and their vulnerability to external pressures. We demonstrate how we combine two complementary approaches—risk and futures—and use them to assess (i) how a set of baseline strategic risks for a water utility evolves under alternative futures, (ii) the aggregate corporate-level risk exposure, and (iii) the process and responses needed to manage multiple, interdependent strategic risks. The framework offers a corporate approach to evolving strategic risks and improves a utility’s (i) knowledge of uncertainties, (ii) ability to assess the impacts of external developments over long time horizons and the consequences of actions and (iii) degree of flexibility to adapt to possible future challenges. The framework supports risk managers in their long-term strategic planning, through the appraisal and management of multiple, interdependent long-term strategic risks and can be replicated in other organisational contexts to bridge operational and corporate perspectives of enterprise risk.

     

Planning for the Human Dimensions of Oil Spills and Spill Response

Oil spill contingency planners need an improved approach to understanding and planning for the human dimensions of oil spills. Drawing on existing literature in social impact assessment, natural hazards, human ecology, adaptive management, global change and sustainability, we develop an integrative approach to understanding and portraying the human dimensions impacts of stressors associated with oil spill events. Our approach is based on three fundamental conclusions that are drawn from this literature review. First, it is productive to acknowledge that, while stressors can produce human impacts directly, they mainly affect intermediary processes and changes to these processes produce human impacts. Second, causal chain modeling taken from hazard management literature provides a means to document how oil spill stressors change processes and produce human impacts. Third, concepts from the global change literature on vulnerability enrich causal models in ways that make more obvious how management interventions lessen hazards and mitigate associated harm. Using examples from recent spill events, we illustrate how these conclusions can be used to diagrammatically portray the human dimensions of oil spills.     

粮食产量预测理论、方法与应用Ⅲ.粮食生产潜力中、长期预测理论、模型及其应用

粮食生产潜力中、长期预测的目的是为国家中、长期粮食生产规划提供科学依据。粮食生产潜力中、长期预测的“双向预测理论”：从若干个预测模型中选择出2个模型,一个模型预测的未来产量是持续增加的,体现产量持续增加的科技进步力量;另一个模型预测的未来产量是先增加后减少或持续减少的,体现影响产量持续增加的负面综合因素力量。应用结果表明：模型可预测未来1~10年的粮食生产潜力,平均预测误差在5％以内。大量案例证明粮食生产潜力中、长期预测的“双向预测理论”是科学的、方法是通用的、结果是实用的。     

A Risk-Based Approach to Evaluating Wildlife Demographics for Management in a Changing Climate: A Case Study of the Lewis’s Woodpecker

Given the projected threat that climate change poses to biodiversity, the need for proactive response efforts is clear. However, integrating uncertain climate change information into conservation planning is challenging, and more explicit guidance is needed. To this end, this article provides a specific example of how a risk-based approach can be used to incorporate a species’ response to climate into conservation decisions. This is shown by taking advantage of species’ response (i.e., impact) models that have been developed for a well-studied bird species of conservation concern. Specifically, we examine the current and potential impact of climate on nest survival of the Lewis’s Woodpecker (Melanerpes lewis) in two different habitats. To address climate uncertainty, climate scenarios are developed by manipulating historical weather observations to create ensembles (i.e., multiple sequences of daily weather) that reflect historical variability and potential climate change. These ensembles allow for a probabilistic evaluation of the risk posed to Lewis’s Woodpecker nest survival and are used in two demographic analyses. First, the relative value of each habitat is compared in terms of nest survival, and second, the likelihood of exceeding a critical population threshold is examined. By embedding the analyses in a risk framework, we show how management choices can be made to be commensurate with a defined level of acceptable risk. The results can be used to inform habitat prioritization and are discussed in the context of an economic framework for evaluating trade-offs between management alternatives.     

Risk management is not enough: a conceptual model for resilience and adaptation-based vulnerability assessments

The US government has focused considerable attention on enhancing our society’s ability to protect critical systems and services from disruptive events. Over the past decade, federal agencies have bolstered their efforts to identify and minimize threats using traditional risk-based approaches such as continuity of operations and disaster risk reduction processes. However, these valuable risk identification and management tools are limited because they rely upon foreseeable factor analyses of steady-state systems with predictable hazard frequencies and severities. In assessing the capability of complex adaptive systems to cope with disruptions, an overemphasis upon engineering resilience through risk management and planning for what is predictable may cloud or detract from our efforts to better understand a system’s emergent capabilities to withstand disruptions that are unforeseeable. This article contends that augmenting traditional risk approaches through the incorporation of methodologies grounded in socio-ecological system (SES) resilience principles offers a potential avenue for improving our agencies’ abilities to assess and manage both known and unknown risks. We offer a notional rationale for broadening our examination of system vulnerabilities and present a conceptual model that combines engineering and SES resilience paradigms to facilitate the identification, assessment, and management of system vulnerabilities. The Military Installation Resilience Assessment model described herein applies risk and resilience principles to evaluate whole systems, focusing on interconnections and their functionality in facilitating response and adaptation.     

Regional Industries and Environmental Impacts. Long-run Regional Economic Effects of Climate Change: The Case of the Coastal and Estuary Zone of the German Northwest

The paper explores the relations of (1) regionalized climate change impulses; (2) their impacts on regional industry sectors; and (3) a regional econometric impact analysis. It develops a methodology by which the impulses of a regional climate change scenario can be transformed into ‘primary’ impacts on the capital stock and value added of climate-sensitive regional industries. These industries are vulnerable to ‘creeping’, i.e. continuous, climate change impulses, and they tend to react through ‘defensive’ investment. In addition, a singular flooding event is simulated for a specific local area and its different capital stocks. The stock damages and value-added losses of both the continuous industrial impacts and the singular flooding are inserted into a regional econometric model. This is sectorally disaggregated in stock, value-added and investment functions. It is also calibrated in the very-long run (through to the year 2040), according to different scenarios. The regional economic ‘secondary’ effects on the regional GNP are calculated. In addition to the calculation of regional economic primary and secondary impacts, the methodological issue of generating more transparency of the causal chains by use of damage functions, reaction functions, and comparative defensive strategies are discussed.     

Assessment of flooding impacts in terms of sustainability in mainland China

An understanding of flood impact in terms of sustainability is vital for long-term disaster risk reduction. This paper utilizes two important concepts: conventional insurance related flood risk for short-term damage by specific flood events, and long-term flood impact on sustainability. The Insurance Related Flood Risk index, IRFR, is defined as the product of the Flood Hazard Index (FHI) and Vulnerability. The Long-term Flood Impact on Sustainability index, LFIS, is the ratio of the flood hazard index to the Sustainable Development Index (SDI). Using a rapid assessment approach, quantitative assessments of IRFR and LFIS are carried out for 2339 counties and cities in mainland China. Each index is graded from ‘very low’ to ‘very high’ according to the eigenvalue magnitude of cluster centroids. By combining grades of FHI and SDI, mainland China is then classified into four zones in order to identify regional variations in the potential linkage between flood hazard and sustainability. Zone I regions, where FHI is graded ‘very low’ or ‘low’ and SDI is ‘medium’ to ‘very high’, are mainly located in western China. Zone II regions, where FHI and SDI are ‘medium’ or ‘high’, occur in the rapidly developing areas of central and eastern China. Zone III regions, where FHI and SDI are ‘very low’ or ‘low’, correspond to the resource-based areas of western and north-central China. Zone IV regions, where FHI is ‘medium’ to ‘very high’ and SDI is ‘very low’ to ‘low’, occur in ecologically fragile areas of south-western China. The paper also examines the distributions of IRFR and LFIS throughout mainland China. Although 57% of the counties and cities have low IRFR values, 64% have high LFIS values. The modal values of LFIS are ordered as Zone I < Zone II ≈ Zone III < Zone IV; whereas the modal values of IRFR are ordered as Zone I < Zone III < Zone IV < Zone II. It is recommended that present flood risk policies be altered towards a more sustainable flood risk management strategy in areas where LFIS and IRFR vary significantly, with particular attention focused on Zone IV regions, which presently experience poverty and a deteriorating eco-system.     

Proportionate and disproportionate policy responses to climate change: core concepts and empirical applications

A fresh perspective on policy-making and planning has emerged which views disproportionate policy as an intentional policy response. A disproportionate policy response is understood to be a lack of ‘fit’ or balance between the costs of a public policy and the benefits that are derived from this policy, and between policy ends and means. This paper applies this new perspective on the proportionality of policy-making to the area of climate change. The first part of the paper discusses the underlying causes of disproportionate policy responses in broad terms and then applies the theoretical reasoning to understand the conditions in which they are likely to appear in relation to climate change. These conditions are hypothesized to relate to four main factors: economic considerations; levels of public demand; focusing events; and strategic considerations. It concludes with the suggestion that societal actors may be able to manipulate these four factors to encourage politicians to adopt policies that mitigate climate change more rapidly than is currently the case in most countries.     

Forecasting land use change and its environmental impact at a watershed scale

Urban expansion is a major driving force altering local and regional hydrology and increasing non-point source (NPS) pollution. To explore these environmental consequences of urbanization, land use change was forecast, and long-term runoff and NPS pollution were assessed in the Muskegon River watershed, located on the eastern coast of Lake Michigan. A land use change model, LTM, and a web-based environmental impact model, L-THIA, were used in this study. The outcomes indicated the watershed would likely be subjected to impacts from urbanization on runoff and some types of NPS pollution. Urbanization will slightly or considerably increase runoff volume, depending on the development rate, slightly increase nutrient losses in runoff, but significantly increase losses of oil and grease and certain heavy metals in runoff. The spatial variation of urbanization and its impact were also evaluated at the subwatershed scale and showed subwatersheds along the coast of the lake and close to cities would have runoff and nitrogen impact. The results of this study have significant implications for urban planning and decision making in an effort to protect and remediate water and habitat quality of Muskegon Lake, which is one of Lake Michigan's Areas of Concern (AOC), and the techniques described here can be used in other areas.     

Integrating Human Impacts and Ecological Integrity into a Risk-Based Protocol for Conservation Planning

Conservation planning aims to protect biodiversity by sustainng the natural physical, chemical, and biological processes within representative ecosystems. Often data to measure these components are inadequate or unavailable. The impact of human activities on ecosystem processes complicates integrity assessments and might alter ecosystem organization at multiple spatial scales. Freshwater conservation targets, such as populations and communities, are influenced by both intrinsic aquatic properties and the surrounding landscape, and locally collected data might not accurately reflect potential impacts. We suggest that changes in five major biotic drivers—energy sources, physical habitat, flow regime, water quality, and biotic interactions—might be used as surrogates to inform conservation planners of the ecological integrity of freshwater ecosystems. Threats to freshwater systems might be evaluated based on their impact to these drivers to provide an overview of potential risk to conservation targets. We developed a risk-based protocol, the Ecological Risk Index (ERI), to identify watersheds with least/most risk to conservation targets. Our protocol combines risk-based components, specifically the frequency and severity of human-induced stressors, with biotic drivers and mappable land- and water-use data to provide a summary of relative risk to watersheds. We illustrate application of our protocol with a case study of the upper Tennessee River basin, USA. Differences in risk patterns among the major drainages in the basin reflect dominant land uses, such as mining and agriculture. A principal components analysis showed that localized, moderately severe threats accounted for most of the threat composition differences among our watersheds. We also found that the relative importance of threats is sensitive to the spatial grain of the analysis. Our case study demonstrates that the ERI is useful for evaluating the frequency and severity of ecosystemwide risk, which can inform local and regional conservation planning.     

Environmental issue area and game theory

The impact of international cultural, political, social, military, scientific, environmental and economic events has never been more vividly felt than today and the ‘challenge of global change’ has been created. Today there are many pressing regional and global problems. The planet is under stress and so are various scientific paradigms. To solve the new problems, international multilateral action is needed and increasingly sought. Mutual and not sporadic cooperation is the most prudent policy, the most effective means to attain set environmental goals such as clean air, clean water and clean soil. As to cooperation, national actions taken by state authorities cannot abolish any of these problems, but regional or preferably global, international multilateral action must be taken to meet the new demands. Responsibility for future generations is the key. Which is preferred: growth at any cost with widespread ecological destruction or sustainable development with cleaner water, air and environment? What is prudent policy? Cooperation or competition? Do we need long-term planning instead of short-term planning and gains? These are the key questions which this paper seeks to answer.     

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making.     

Developing green infrastructure ‘thinking’: devising and applying an interactive group-based methodology for practitioners

Recent years have witnessed a wave of interest in the concept of green infrastructure (GI) as a means of applying an ecosystem approach to spatial planning practice; however, more limited attention has been paid to decision-making processes or tools to enhance GI within spatial plans and guidance. We address this deficit by reporting on the development and application of an interactive group-based methodology to enhance GI ‘thinking’ and interdisciplinary collaboration, drawing on the literature on the sociology of interactions. Our findings suggest that a game-based approach to GI problem-solving was successful in breaking down professional barriers by creating an informal learning arena, providing an enabling opportunity for participants to solve problems in an iterative, non-linear style to develop principles for action with transferability to ongoing plan formation. This style of problem-solving was characterised by shifting norms and routines of interaction, leading to problem re-framing and a search for alternative solutions.     

Building disaster-resilient communities: The road to the second World Conference on Disaster Reduction, January 2005, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan

The statistics paint a shocking picture: Over the past ten years around 7,000 ‘natural’ disasters have occurred, killing more than 300,000 people and resulting in over US$800 billion in economic losses (Munich Re, 2003). Increasing interest in global warming has provoked intense debate on the issue of climate change and its implications for more frequent and intense extreme weather events, placing more people at risk than ever. While all countries may be threatened by natural hazards, experience shows that developing countries are disproportionately affected, with losses sometimes exceeding years of hard‐won and desperately needed economic development. The World Conference on Disaster Reduction,1 to be held in Japan in 2005, aims to address these and other crucial issues that are posing an unprecedented challenge to the international community.     

Comparative risk analysis for metropolitan solid waste management systems

Conventional solid waste management planning usually focuses on economic optimization, in which the related environmental impacts or risks are rarely considered. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the methodology of how optimization concepts and techniques can be applied to structure and solve risk management problems such that the impacts of air pollution, leachate, traffic congestion, and noise increments can be regulated in the long-term planning of metropolitan solid waste management systems. Management alternatives are sequentially evaluated by adding several environmental risk control constraints stepwise in an attempt to improve the management strategies and reduce the risk impacts in the long run. Statistics associated with those risk control mechanisms are presented as well. Siting, routing, and financial decision making in such solid waste management systems can also be achieved with respect to various resource limitations and disposal requirements.     

Risk-based management of contaminated land in the UK: Lessons for China?

The management of contaminated land is now assuming greater attention in Chinese debates on environmental governance. However, the existing management system appears ineffective as it lacks a clear policy framework and technical basis. In the United Kingdom (UK), contaminated land issues are dealt with through a risk-based approach. This approach emphasizes the application of risk approaches in both technical and integrated management systems. Conceptually, this paper outlines generic issues related to transferring programmes from one place to another. We argue that too much emphasis has been placed on the barriers to effective transfer, rather than focusing on methods of abstracting lessons for application in foreign settings. We then examine the Chinese system and its problems in managing contaminated land before turning to the UK risk-based approach to see what lessons can be learned from it. Four aspects are analyzed and compared: legislative and policy framework; administrative structure and capacity; technical approaches; and incentive strategy. Based on the experience of the UK in practice, some suggestions are then proposed for China in order to improve its management of contaminated land. We suggest that this should include: a focus on the problem sites; development of a risk-based technical approach and integrated management system; the introduction of financial incentives; and the use of planning control as a management strategy. It is believed that a risk-based integrated management approach may be helpful for China to achieve sustainable solutions for contaminated land.     

Democratising planetary boundaries: experts,social values and deliberative risk evaluation in Earth system governance

ABSTRACT

Recent debates about the concept of planetary boundaries recall longstanding concerns about whether ecological limits are compatible with ecological democracy. The planetary boundaries framework (originally set out in Rockström et al., 2009a, 2009b) defines values for key Earth-system processes such as climate change and biodiversity that aim to maintain a ‘safe’ distance from thresholds or levels that could endanger human wellbeing. Despite having a significant impact in policy debates, the framework has been criticised as implying an expert-driven approach to governing global environmental risks that lacks democratic legitimacy. Drawing on research on deliberative democracy and the role of science in democratic societies, we argue that planetary boundaries can be interpreted in ways that remain consistent with democratic decision-making. We show how an iterative, dialogical process to formulate planetary boundaries and negotiate ‘planetary targets’ could form the basis for a democratically legitimate division of labour among experts, citizens and policy-makers in evaluating and responding to Earth-system risks. Crucial to this division of evaluative labour is opening up space for deliberative contestation about the value judgments inherent in collective responses to Earth-system risks, while also safeguarding the ability of experts to issue warnings about what they consider to be unacceptable risks.     

Risk and vulnerability analysis: A feasible process for local climate adaptation in Sweden?

Climate change is an important new challenge for local authorities. This study analyses the potential for using the Swedish mandatory process for risk and vulnerability analysis (RVA) as a vehicle to improve local climate adaptation work. An advantage with RVA is its comprehensive approach in dealing with all relevant threats and all vital functions of society. In order to test the applicability of incorporating climate adaptation into RVA, we studied practical experiences from three Swedish municipalities. In all municipalities, a pre-study to identify relevant climate-induced events was performed. In one municipality, this was followed by a more detailed analysis of the potential impacts of these events on the functions of the various administrations and companies within the local authority. Problems identified in successful integration of climate change into the municipal RVA process were lack of sufficient knowledge to identify the impacts of climate change on the level of the respective specialist or district administration and lack of resources to perform the analysis. There were also some difficulties in including a long-term perspective relevant for climate adaptation into RVA, which usually focuses on current threats. A positive outcome was that work on extreme climate events in RVA provided a traceable method to identify events with a potentially great impact on the function of local society and results that could be fed into other ongoing processes, such as spatial planning and housing plans.     

Farmers’ Perceived Risks of Climate Change and Influencing Factors: A Study in the Mekong Delta,Vietnam

Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers’ lives. Farmers’ perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers’ perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers’ perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family’s lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government’s, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.