中国未来10～15年地震灾害的风险评估

中国是世界上地震灾害损失最严重的国家之一，全国５０％以上的城市和７０％左右的大中城市位于７度及以上烈度区内．地震的发生给中国社会带来了很大的危害和损失，主要的损失分布在以北京为中心的首都圈地区和云南－四川－陕西－内蒙古相连的南北带上，另外新疆的西北部也是地震损失较大的地区．所谓地震灾害风险是指建立在各地防震减灾能力基础上的未来地震损失估汁，风险的特征是具有一定的不确定性．从中国的实际情况来看，东部沿海地区、首都圈地区及内陆的个别地区防震减灾能力较强，而未来地震危险性则以中国西部地区和华北地区为主．通过对中国未来１０—１５年地震风险的研究，可以认为，中国的东部地区虽然有一定的地震危险性，但由于其经济发达，减灾能力很强，因此未来地震造成巨大损失的风险较小；中国的中部（南北带）和西部地区地震危险性很大，同时经济欠发达，减灾能力较差，因此未来地震造成巨大损失的风险很大．     

城市防震减灾及其对策

城市是一个区域政治、经济、文化中心、是交通、通讯的重要枢纽，随着城市化进程的加快，城市规模日益扩大，城市人口、财产、建筑物更加密集，一旦遭受强烈地震袭击或波及，灾害损失将十分严重，加之，许多城市都处在地震的易发多发地带，地震对许多城市的安全构成了严重的威胁，本文对防震减灾工作进行了探讨。     

The Spitak (Armenia, USSR) Earthquake: Residential Building Typology and Seismic Behaviour

The 1988 earthquake in Armenia was the most serious seismic disaster since the 1976 earthquake in Tangshan, China. At least 25,000 people lost their lives in a tremor of moderate magnitude and the USSR suffered a loss of more than 2.5 per cent of 1988's GDP. Research at the Martin Centre on the effects of earthquakes on human lives has shown an increase in global earthquake mortality rate, despite the well known improvements in some countries. The Armenian disaster was a warning to all of us concerned with natural or man-made disasters. Areas of potential high hazard are pointed out for the sub-Caucasian region. Construction practices similar to those in Armenia are certainly found in many other parts of the world, with some regional variations, and the fast assimilation of the lessons is an important target. The structural characteristics of all the residential building types existing in the affected area are presented in terms of their seismic vulnerability. Vulnerable points are discussed with a view to low cost interventions that will drastically improve the seismic safety of new buildings.     

The orientation of disaster donations: differences in the global response to five major earthquakes

This study analyses the influence of gift giving, geographical location, political regime, and trade openness on disaster donation decisions, using five severe earthquakes that occurred between 2008 and 2012 as case studies. The results show that global disaster donation is not dominated by only philanthropy or trade interests, and that the determinants of donation decisions vary with the scale of the natural disaster and the characteristics of the disaster‐affected countries. While gift giving exists in the case of middle‐size earthquakes, political regimes play a very important part in the overall donation process. Countries with higher perceived corruption may donate more frequently, but those that are more democratic may be more generous in their donations. Generosity based on geographical proximity to the calamity is significant in the decision‐making process for most natural disasters, yet it may have a negative effect on donations in Latin America and the Caribbean.     

地震灾害对中国农村居民的影响研究--以云南省大姚县为例

通过对2003年7月21日和10月16日分别发生6.2和6.1级地震的云南省大姚县居民的问卷调查,分析了地震灾害对中困农村居民的影响,了解了我国农村居民尤其是地震多发区农村居民对地震灾害的风险意识以及在地震灾害中的反应.调查结果表明:中国农村居民是地震灾害的最大受害者和风险承担者.虽然他们会在地震灾害中汲取经验教训,增强风险防范意识,但是由于经济水平、自然环境等客观条件的影响,他们只能被动地承受地震灾害,而不能从根本上改变承灾体的脆弱性.中国农村地震减灾、防灾能力的加强需要政府管理部门的积极参与.     

地震预报研究的发展展望

对40年来地震科学家就地震预报工作所做出的努力进行了回顾总结;对国际间在地震预报方面下一步的工作做了介绍;同时,对我国今后的地震预报发展战略提出了自己的看法。认为我国地震预报的发展应认真考虑以下3个问题:(1)基础理论研究与地震预报实践紧密结合的问题;(2)地震预报观测技术在地震预报工作中的角色定位问题;(3)“地震预报实验场”在地震预报实践中的作用问题。     

福建暴雨洪灾时空变化与区域划分的初步研究

根据福建省暴雨洪涝灾害数据库资料，重建了1971—2005年福建暴雨洪灾的时空格局，在此基础上，基于自然灾害系统理论，以县域为单元，根据综合性与主导因素相结合的原则，采用自下而上的方法对福建暴雨洪灾进行了区域划分。结果表明：福建洪涝灾害的年际变化呈波动上升趋势，与暴雨次数的年际变化并不一致；年内非台风暴雨洪涝灾害有71．2％集中在4—6月份，台风暴雨洪涝灾害有81.3％集中在7—9月份，群发性强；空间上东西分异明显，东部以台风暴雨洪灾为主，区内根据危险性差异划分为4个二级区；西部以非台风暴雨洪灾为主，区内依据危险性差异划分为3个二级区。分阶段研究表明，洪涝灾害的分布范围由沿海向内陆扩展，并与暴雨频次和持续时间呈不同步增长，反映了福建的洪涝灾害是主要致灾因子暴雨和承灾体共同作用的结果，承灾体的脆弱性加大了洪涝灾害灾情，福建暴雨洪涝灾害的时空格局和区域划分可为防灾减灾规划提供科学参考。     

Public participation in NGO-oriented communities for disaster prevention and mitigation (N-CDPM) in the Longmen Shan fault area during the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquake periods

ABSTRACT

The Longmen Shan fault area in southwest China is one of the world’s most active earthquake zones. The epicenters of the two most recent earthquakes, the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (8.0?Ms) and the 2013 Lushan earthquake (7.0?Ms), both of which caused serious losses, were only 85?km apart. Community-based disaster risk reduction is the foundation of the disaster management system pyramid and is critical to the success of ‘sustainable hazard mitigation’. Based on multiple collaborative stakeholder perspectives, this paper examines public participation in an NGO-oriented Community for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (N-CDPM) in the period between the two earthquakes as a multi-stage problem; N-CDPM establishment, normal operations, disaster testing, and continuous improvement. Multi-stage field research was conducted in the affected areas in the Longmen Shan fault area to examine the collaboration in each stage, after which the differences were compared across the four stages based on eight key indices; scales, core stakeholders, core network stability, mean number of lines, mean collaborative level, governments, and individual and public organization participation. The government participation, individual participation, and public organization participation are then discussed. This paper provides a novel research approach to CDPM in multiple earthquake regions and gives rich insights into the collaboration between the government and the public for N-CDPM.     

民勤地区大震、古地理和沙尘暴的关系

民勤地区是中国沙尘暴发生年频次最高的地区。本文讨论了干旱、地震、古湖泊和风线对民勤地区沙尘暴形成所产生的综合作用。强地震破坏了土壤颗粒的团聚性,古湖泊环境提供了沙土混杂的地表层,风线决定了沙尘暴的飞扬和运移。     

Vulnerability to typhoon hazards in the coastal informal settlements of Metro Manila,the Philippines

In many low‐ and middle‐income countries informal communities—also termed slum and squatter areas—have become a dominant and distinct form of urban settlement, with ever increasing populations. Such communities are often located in areas of high hazard exposure and frequently affected by disasters. While often recognised as one of the highest ‘at risk’ populations, this paper will argue that informal settlers have been directly and indirectly excluded from many formal mechanisms, thereby increasing their vulnerability to disaster events. Household surveys were conducted across several frequently flooded informal coastal communities in Metro Manila, the Philippines, following a major typhoon and storm surge disaster. The study revealed a large level of diversity in socio‐economic vulnerability, although all households faced similar levels of physical exposure and physical vulnerability. Disaster risk reduction policies and responses need to better integrate informal settlement areas and recognise the diversity within these communities.     

An investigation into the socioeconomic aspects of two major earthquakes in Iran

An evaluation of the socioeconomic consequences of earthquakes is an essential part of the development of risk reduction and disaster management plans. However, these variables are not normally addressed sufficiently after strong earthquakes; researchers and relevant stakeholders focus primarily on the physical damage and casualties. The importance of the socioeconomic consequences of seismic events became clearer in Iran after the Bam earthquake on 26 December 2003, as demonstrated by the formulation and approval of various laws and ordinances. This paper reviews the country's regulatory framework in the light of the socioeconomic aspects of two major and destructive earthquakes: in Manjil–Rudbar in 1990, and in Bam in 2003. The results take the form of recommendations and practical strategies for incorporating the socioeconomic dimensions of earthquakes in disaster risk management planning. The results presented here can be applied in other countries with similar conditions to those of Iran in order to improve public preparedness and risk reduction.     

Modelling the elements of country vulnerability to earthquake disasters

Earthquakes have probably been the most deadly form of natural disaster in the past century. Diversity of earthquake specifications in terms of magnitude, intensity and frequency at the semi-continental scale has initiated various kinds of disasters at a regional scale. Additionally, diverse characteristics of countries in terms of population size, disaster preparedness, economic strength and building construction development often causes an earthquake of a certain characteristic to have different impacts on the affected region. This research focuses on the appropriate criteria for identifying the severity of major earthquake disasters based on some key observed symptoms. Accordingly, the article presents a methodology for identification and relative quantification of severity of earthquake disasters. This has led to an earthquake disaster vulnerability model at the country scale. Data analysis based on this model suggested a quantitative, comparative and meaning full interpretation of the vulnerability of concerned countries, and successfully explained which countries are more vulnerable to major disasters.     

城市防震减灾能力评估研究

首先论述了目前国内外关于城市地震灾害风险评估的研究，分析了这些研究取得的成果和存在的不足。然后，提出了城市防震减灾能力的概念，采用人员伤亡，经济损失和震后恢复时间作为衡量城市防震减灾能力强弱的3个最基本的要素。围绕这3个基本要素，列举出影响城市防震减灾能力的6大因素，在此基础上，提出了城市防震减灾能力评价指标体系的具体内容。     

Disaster risk reduction in developing countries: costs, benefits and institutions

Some 60,000 people worldwide die annually in natural disasters, mostly due to the collapse of buildings in earthquakes, and primarily in the developing world. This is despite the fact that engineering solutions exist that can eliminate almost completely the risk of such deaths. Why is this? The solutions are expensive and technically demanding, so their cost–benefit ratio often is unfavourable as compared to other interventions. Nonetheless, there are various public disaster risk reduction interventions that are highly cost‐effective. That such interventions frequently remain unimplemented or ineffectively executed points to a role for issues of political economy. Building regulations in developing countries appear to have limited impact in many cases, perhaps because of inadequate capacity and corruption. Public construction often is of low quality, perhaps for similar reasons. This suggests the need for approaches that emphasise simple and limited disaster risk regulation covering only the most at‐risk structures—and that, preferably, non‐experts can monitor—as well as numerous transparency and oversight mechanisms for public construction projects.     

The rise of politics and the decline of vulnerability as criteria in disaster decisions of the United States, 1953–2009

This paper examines the shift from vulnerability to political responsiveness in presidential and gubernatorial disaster decisions in the United States from 1953–2009 (President Dwight D. Eisenhower to President Barack Obama) using annual request, declaration, and approval data from multiple sources. It makes three key conclusions: first, the 1988 Stafford Act expanded federal coverage to all categories of disasters, added a significant range of individual types of assistance, and provided extensive funding for recovery planning. Second, the election effects on disaster decisions increased over time whereas the impact of social and economic vulnerability (measured by scope of disaster) declined. Third, the changes affected governors more than presidents, and the choices of governors drove those of presidents. The analysis underscores the increasingly political nature of the disaster decision‐making process, as well as the difficulty in emphasising mitigation and preparedness as intensively as response and recovery. Proactive intervention yields fewer political rewards than responsiveness.     

福州市区地震灾害损失预测研究

基于福州市区地震危险性分析、地震地质灾害区划、建筑物和生命线易损性分析及防震减灾信息管理系统,本文介绍了在设定地震、历史地震、盲估地震和实时地震等4种不同地震参数输入下福州市区可能遭遇的地震灾害损失预测成果,提出了依据地面数据精度和设施类型划分的大城市地震灾害损失预测城市核心区、城乡结合部和乡村三个层次方案,并在此基础上确定了地震灾害损失的预测评估单元,即在城市核心区,地震灾害的损失评估单元可以是建筑物、居委会或区;在城乡结合部,地震灾害的损失评估以居委会或区为单元;在乡村地震灾害损失评估以乡镇和自然村为单元。根据系统模块,本文预测了8度地震烈度下福州市区地震灾害的总损失及其空间分布,其中全市区人员死亡约123人,重伤约654人,无家可归者约417100人,直接经济损失156.1亿元,并分析了地震灾害损失空间分布不均匀性的主要原因。     

自然灾害保险风险分析

在考虑自然灾害的危险性、灾害的经济与社会易损性和风险区的工程防御能力的基础上，建立了自然灾害保险风险分析的数学模型。选择给人类社会造成重大损失的地震、地质灾害、洪水和台风等4种自然灾害作为灾害危险度评判的灾种，利用所建立的数学模型，对中国由然灾害保险风险进行了评判。并根据评判结果绘制了中国自然灾害保险风险区划图。     

The social impact of natural hazards: a multi‐level analysis of disasters and forms of trust in mainland China

This study aimed to assess the multi‐level effects of natural hazards on trust in Chinese society. Drawing on the Chinese General Social Survey conducted in 2012 and provincial disaster damage records, it examined the association between individuals’ past experiences of disasters and province‐level damage (measured by the number of affected people, deaths, and economic loss) and various forms of trust: in‐group; out‐group; generalised; and political. The findings indicate that Chinese individuals with experience of disasters have higher levels of out‐group trust but lower levels of political trust. Similarly, at the province level, damage owing to disasters over the past three years (2009–11) positively impacted on residents’ out‐group trust while negatively affecting their political trust. However, when provincial damage was aggregated for disasters over the past five years (2007–11), which included the devastating Sichuan earthquake on 12 May 2008, only total deaths had a positive effect on generalised trust.     

Disaster resilience and population ageing: the 1995 Kobe and 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes in Japan

This paper provides a framework for evaluating the effects of population ageing on disaster resilience. In so doing, it focuses on the 1995 Kobe and 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes, two major disasters that affected Japan before the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. It analyses regional population recovery on the basis of pre‐disaster and post‐recovery demographic characteristics using defined transition patterns of population ageing. The evaluation framework demonstrates that various recovery measures make different contributions to disaster resilience for each transition pattern of population ageing. With reference to regional population ageing, the framework allows for a prediction of disaster resilience, facilitating place vulnerability assessments and potentially informing policy‐making strategies for Japan and other countries with ageing populations.     

风暴潮风险研究进展

中国沿海是全球少数几个风暴潮风险最大的区域之一。受全球气候变暖和海平面上升的影响,沿海地区风暴潮灾害风险水平呈显著上升的趋势。从灾害风险理论出发,在对风暴潮风险的认识、风暴潮危险性评估、风暴潮易损性评估,以及风暴潮综合风险评估等四个方面,系统地总结了目前风暴潮风险研究的最新成果、研究进展和存在的主要问题。总体来看,现阶段风暴潮风险评估研究还比较薄弱,未来的风暴潮风险研究应该由单要素评估走向综合评估,加强风暴潮风险评估的综合性和系统性。随着沿海地区社会经济的发展,应充分考虑全球变化和海平面上升对未来风暴潮风险的影响,完善风暴潮综合风险评估体系,提升风暴潮预报预警能力,为风暴潮灾害的防灾减灾工作提供科学依据。