Analysis of long-term changes in the dates of seasonal phenomena in plants and insects of the Il’men Reserve as related to climatic factors

The results of monitoring the dates of the onset of flowering and leaf budding in eight herbaceous and woody plant species and the first appearance of three insect species in the Il’men Reserve (1972–2005) were processed by means of regression and correlation analyses. No significant changes in test parameters were revealed in the majority of these species. Only two early spring plants, coltsfoot (Tussilago farfara L.) and goat willow (Salix caprea L.), showed a weak tendency toward earlier flowering in the 1980s and 1990s. This is explained primarily by the absence of any significant trends in spring and summer air temperatures in the study region over the observation period. On the other hand, interannual fluctuations in the dates of plant flowering and insect appearance were well manifested not only in early spring but also in late-spring species. These fluctuations proved to depend largely on spring temperatures: in years with early and warm springs, flowering and leaf budding in plants and the appearance of first individuals in insects were recorded on significantly earlier dates.     

Reconstructing the history of 14C discharges from Sellafield: part 1--atmospheric discharges

14C specific activities, above ambient background levels, were determined in individual treerings (corresponding to the years 1950-1999) sectioned from an oak tree that was felled in autumn 1999, from a location 1.5 km east of the Sellafield nuclear fuel reprocessing plant in Cumbria. north-west England. The data were used to produce a new, improved, reconstruction of Sellafield's annual atmospheric 14C discharges between 1951 and 1999, using the most reliable discharge data set (1994-1999) as the primary basis for the determination of a new calibration factor that relates excess 14C activity in individual tree rings to the annual discharge during the corresponding year. The results indicate that the current British Nuclear Fuels plc (BNFL) estimate of total 14C discharges to the atmosphere prior to 1978 is significantly overestimated, while the current estimate of total 14C discharges after 1978 is very similar to that determined in this study. In this study, the total activity of 14C discharged to the atmosphere from Sellafield between 1951 and 1999 is estimated to be 259+/-63 TBq (at 2 std. dev.). The BNFL current estimate is 360TBq.     

Has recent climate warming affected the dates of bird arrival to the Il℉men Reserve in the Southern Urals?

The results of regression and correlation analyses of long-term data (1971–2005) on the dates of arrival of 16 bird species to the Il’men State Nature Reserve (the Southern Urals) show that they have not changed in most of these birds, unlike in many countries of Europe and North America. This is explained primarily by the absence of any significant trends in the dynamics of spring air temperatures in the study region. Only the herring gull Larus argentatus and the lapwing Vanellus vanellus have shown a significant tendency to arrive earlier, while the garganey Anas querquedula has shown a tendency to arrive on later dates in the past two decades. Nevertheless, interannual fluctuations in the dates of arrival are well manifested in both early arriving species wintering in Europe and late-arriving species wintering in Africa. These fluctuations largely depend on temperature conditions in spring. As a rule, almost all species studied—from waterbirds to passerines—appear in the Il’men Reserve earlier in years with early and warm springs than in cold years. Hence, spring weather is the key factor determining the dates of arrival of migratory birds to the study region.     

Sensitivity of typical Mediterranean crops to past and future evolution of seasonal temperature and precipitation in Apulia

The region of Apulia, which is located in the south-east tip of the Italian Peninsula, has a typical Mediterranean climate with mild winters and hot-dry summers. Agriculture, an important sector of its economy, is potentially threatened by future climate change. This study describes the evolution of seasonal temperature and precipitation from the recent past to the next decades and estimates future potential impacts of climate change on three main agricultural products: wine, wheat and olives. Analysis is based on instrumental data, on an ensemble of climate projections and on a linear regression model linking these three agricultural products to seasonal values of temperature and precipitation. In Apulia, precipitation and temperature time series show trends toward warmer and marginally drier conditions during the whole analyzed (1951–2005) period: 0.18 °C/decade in mean annual minimum temperature and ?14.9 mm/decade in the annual total precipitation. Temperature trends have been progressively increasing and rates of change have become noticeably more intense during the last 25 years of the twentieth century. Model simulations are consistent with observed trends for the period 1951–2000 and show a large acceleration of the warming rate in the period 2001–2050 with respect to the period 1951–2000. Further, in the period 2001–2050, simulations show a decrease in precipitation, which was not present in the previous 50 years. Wine production, wheat and olive harvest records show large inter-annual variability with statistically significant links to seasonal temperature and precipitation, whose strength, however, strongly depends on the considered variables. Linear regression analysis shows that seasonal temperature and precipitation variability explains a small, but not negligible, fraction of the inter-annual variability of these crops (40, 18, 9 % for wine, olives and wheat, respectively). Results (which consider no adaptation of crops and no fertilization effect of CO₂) suggest that evolution of these seasonal climate variables in the first half of the twenty-first century could decrease all considered variables. The most affected is wine production (?20 ÷ ?26 %). The effect is relevant also on harvested olives (?8 ÷ ?19 %) and negligible on harvested wheat (?4 ÷ ?1 %).     

Lessons from the past in weather variability: sowing to ripening dynamics and yield penalties for northern agriculture from 1970 to 2012

There is evidence for overall spring advancement and phenology shift across the northern hemisphere, including northern Europe, where cereals are grown despite the very short growing season. This study focused on one of the principal risks associated with the short growing season, weather-induced variability in sowing time. The aim was to characterize variation in sowing time, quantify the impacts on crop growth and document associations with weather conditions and variability. We also assessed whether any systematic changes occurred as potential signs of autonomous adaptation to changed conditions. Shifts in spring cereal sowing time had no consistent impact on time of maturity as a result of variable weather conditions. All spring cereal cultivars required fewer days, although more cumulated degree-days, to mature after delays in sowing. In the 1990s and 2000s, sowing tended to start earlier than in the 1970s and 1980s. This was attributable to earlier onset of the growing season. Furthermore, more favorable harvest conditions facilitated harvest after maturity. As more land has been allocated to late-maturing wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) compared with early-maturing barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) during recent decades, autonomous adaptation to climate change has already begun in the northernmost agricultural region of Europe.     

Dynamics of the timberline in high mountain areas of the nether-polar Urals under the influence of current climate change

Changes in the altitudinal position of the timberline in high mountain areas of the Nether-Polar Urals and basic factors that influence such changes have been revealed on the basis of comparison of the age structure of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica) and arctic birch (Betula tortuosa) tree stands and photographs made in different years. On the mountain slopes studied, an upward shift of the timberline took place in areas covered in winter with thick snow (in the late 18th century), with Siberian larch being the pioneer species. Larch began colonizing areas with a thin snow cover in the 20th century. Birch appeared later and has since strengthened its positions. The increase in winter temperatures and precipitation facilitated the expansion of the forest.     

丹江口库区陆地植被物候空间格局及其与海拔的响应关系

海拔高度变化对区域温度、降水都起着至关重要的作用,从而会对植被物候特征产生影响。以丹江口库区为研究区,分析库区植被物候随海拔变化特征,该工作的开展对进一步认识库区植物物候空间特征,进而监测库区土地覆盖变化具有重要实践意义。研究采用Savitzky-Golay滤波算法重建库区2001~2012年MODIS 16天最大合成EVI时序影像数据,对重建后的时间序列影像采用动态阈值法提取库区陆地植被关键物候特征信息,并对库区陆地植被物候特征随海拔梯度变化特征进行分析。研究结果表明,丹江口库区陆地植被生长季为4月上旬至10月上旬,南部山区林地生长季最长,而库区中部、东部耕地生长季较短。植被物候特征随海拔梯度变化呈现两个较为明显的区域,低海拔区域植被生长季开始时间(Start of Season,SOS)随海拔升高而提前,生长季结束时间(End of Season,EOS)随海拔升高而推迟,进而导致生长季长度(Length of Season,LOS)随海拔升高而延长。而在海拔较高山区,林地植被物候呈现完全相反变化趋势。受丹江口水库和人类活动的影响,丹江口库区植被分布随海拔变化呈现两个较为明显的区域。     

Decadal variability of floods in the northern foreland of the Tatra Mountains

Floods in the northern foreland of the Tatra Mountains considerably contribute to the total flood damage in Poland. Therefore, the question whether the magnitude and frequency of floods have changed in this region is of high interest. This study aims at investigating the inter-decadal variability of magnitude, frequency and seasonality of floods since the mid-twentieth century, to better understand regional changes. The analysis was accomplished in a multi-temporal approach whereby trends are fitted to every possible combination of start and end years in a record. Detected trends were explained by estimating correlations between the investigated flood parameters and different large-scale climate indices for the northern hemisphere, and by trends found in intense precipitation indices, number of days with snow cover, cyclonic circulation types, temperature and moisture conditions. Catchment and channel changes that occurred in the region over the past decades were also considered. Results show that rivers in the area exhibit considerable inter-decadal variability of flows. The magnitude and direction of short-term trends are heavily influenced by this inter-decadal variability; however, certain patterns are apparent. More extreme, although perhaps less frequent floods are now likely to occur, with a shift in the seasonality, decreasing flood magnitudes in winter and increasing during autumn and spring. The identification of the factors contributing to the occurrence of flood events and their potential changes is valuable to enhance the flood management in the region and to improve the resilience of the population in this mountainous area.     

Dynamics of snowmelt water composition in conifer forests exposed to airborne industrial pollution

An analysis is made of the spatial variability of snowmelt water composition (within and between biogeocenoses), with regard to its long-term dynamics, in pine and spruce forests exposed to airborne industrial pollution from the Europe’s largest Severonikel Copper–Nickel Smelter Complex. Snowmelt waters from under the tree canopy, compared to those from intercrown areas, contain higher concentrations of chemical elements due to their washing and leaching from tree crowns. This is especially true of spruce forests, since the crowns of spruce trees have a high sorption capacity. Distinct trends in the long-term dynamics of snowmelt water composition, related to reduction of industrial emissions, are observed in background forest areas and defoliating forests but not in the vicinity of pollution sources. It is shown that the main factors determining these dynamics in forests of the Kola Peninsula are edificator tree species, airborne industrial pollution, and, possibly, an increase in the number of days with above-zero temperatures in the period of snow accumulation, which facilitates washing and leaching of chemical compounds from tree crowns.     

亚热带山地常绿落叶阔叶混交林物种幼苗功能性状差异研究

以湖南八大公山25 hm~2常绿落叶阔叶混交林动态监测样地中24个常见物种为研究对象,按照不同生长阶段(H_1:5≤H20 cm、H_2:20≤H40 cm、H_3:40≤H80 cm、H_4:80≤H130 cm、H_5:H≥130 cm且DBH1 cm)获取了826株幼苗并测量了叶片和茎干功能性状,分析了不同生长阶段、冠层和叶片习性幼苗功能性状变异,以及不同功能性状对幼苗存活的影响。结果表明:(1)幼苗功能性状在不同生长阶段差异显著,随着幼苗生长,比叶面积(SLA)、叶片碳氮比(C/N)呈现下降趋势,比茎密度(SSD)、叶柄长度(PL)、叶片氮磷比(N/P)和叶绿素含量(Chl)呈现升高趋势;(2)SLA在灌木层、亚乔木层和乔木层间无明显变化,叶片厚度(LT)、Chl和N/P在3个冠层间变化显著,SSD和PL均在灌木层和乔木层间无明显变化,C/N在灌木层和亚乔木层间无明显差异;(3)常绿树种幼苗具有较高的Chl和LT,落叶树种幼苗具有较高的SLA、叶片氮含量(LNC)、叶片磷含量(LPC)和PL;(4)个体大小对幼苗存活具有显著正效应,LPC促进落叶树种幼苗存活,抑制常绿树种幼苗存活。在植物生活史早期,不同功能群植物针对林下低光环境采取了不同生长适应策略,不同生长阶段幼苗也根据光环境的改变调整自身功能性状。另外,八大公山常绿落叶阔叶混交林中幼苗的生长主要受氮素限制,且这种限制作用随着幼苗生长逐渐减弱。     

The influence of climate change on the ecology of the Pied Flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) in Southern Karelia

The paper is devoted to the ecology of the Pied Flycatcher in Southern Karelia, where climate warming has had almost no effect on the weather in spring, the season especially important for birds. During the 30-year observation period, the local population has been characterized by variable breeding phenology, high fecundity, and relatively stable abundance. This appears to be related to the broad norm of reaction of this species to the action of external factors, which allows the birds to flexibly respond to changes in the unstable spring weather and adjust the timing and rates of their seasonal activities.     

缙云山银木荷(Schima argentea Pritz.ex Diels)林物种组成与多样性变化

定位研究了25a来缙云山银木荷林物种组成及多样性在自然演替过程中的动态变化。结果表明,银木荷林维管植物物种由57种(隶属于24科,46属)减少到38种(隶属于19科,26属)。林下草本和层间植物逐渐消失,胸径大于7.5cm的乔木层树总胸断面积有所减少。尽管群落物种组成以及多样性发生改变,但是银木荷依然是优势树种,处于林冠层,而林冠亚层的白毛新木姜子、四川山矾、长蕊杜鹃逐渐增多,短刺米槠逐渐减少。群落乔木层4个α多样性指数都呈下降趋势,丰富度指数由2.98下降为1.99,Shannon-Wiener指数25a间减小了0.34,Simpson指数和Pielou指数变化都很小;β多样性分析结果显示,银木荷群落的物种差异很大。研究表明,25a间群落物种差异显著。揭示缙云山银木荷林自然演替过程中的物种组成和多样性变化规律,可为缙云山保护区及长江流域中上游亚热带常绿阔叶林的银木荷群落的管理提供一定的参考价值。     

近50年长江流域降水日数的演变趋势

通过分析不同强度降水量（大于75百分位和大于95百分位降水,下同）对应降水日数,研究了长江流域1951~2000年逐年和年代际降水日数变化趋势。大于75百分位的降水日数在上游以及中游的北岸增加趋势最显著,四川盆地是唯一显示减少趋势的地区。同样,大于95百分位的降水日数在中游和下游也表现出十分明显的增加趋势,呈现减少趋势的仍然是四川盆地,并略向其北方延伸。详细分析每10年的平均降水日数的距平发现,大于75百分位降水日数最大的正距平集中在中游的1980s、1990s和下游的1980s。最大的负距平也是在中游地区,发生在1950~1979年。因此,中游的降水日数增加的幅度最大。对于大于95百分位降水日数,长江流域中游和下游的变化趋势也是一致的,在1960s 和1970s的负距平后,都出现较大的正距平。上游降水日数的年际变化要小于中下游。比较不同百分位降水日数的变化趋势,可将长江流域1950~2000年降水日数的变化趋势分为3种类型：（1）在大于75百分位降水日数增加的同时,大于95百分位降水日数却有所减少;（2）大于75和大于95百分位降水日数同时呈减少的趋势;（3）大于75和大于95百分位降水日数同时呈增加趋势。     

Climate changes and tree stand dynamics at the upper limit of their growth in the North Ural mountains

The composition and structure of tree stands near the timberline have been studied on different slopes and at different elevations in the Tylaisko-Konzhakovsko-Serebryanskii Massif, the North Urals. It has been found that the upper limits of tree stands with different degrees of canopy closure have risen considerably (by about 100 m of elevation) since the mid-19th century, although the formation of these stands started as early as the late 18th century. Woodless areas in the eastern part of the massif started to be colonized by Larix sibirica in the late 18th to early 19th centuries; those in the western part, by Picea obovata in the mid-19th century; and in the southern part, by Betula tortuosa in the late 19th century. Analysis of meteorological data provides evidence for warming and increasing humidity of the climate since the late 19th century. Favorable climatic changes that facilitated the expansion of the forest have taken place both in the summer (prolongation of the growing period) and in winter seasons (increase of air temperature and precipitation). The observed differences in the composition and dynamics of tree stands between the studied areas of the mountain range are most probably explained by different requirements of tree species for the depth of snow cover and the degree of soil freezing.     

Climate change and climate-induced hot spots in forest shifts in central Siberia from observed data

Regional Siberian studies have already registered climate warming over the last several decades. We evaluated ongoing climate change in central Siberia between 1991 and 2010 and a baseline period, 1961–1990, and between 1991 and 2010 and Hadley 2020 climate change projections, represented by the moderate B1 and severe A2 scenarios. Our analysis showed that winters are already 2–3°C warmer in the north and 1–2°C warmer in the south by 2010. Summer temperatures increased by 1°C in the north and by 1–2°C in the south. Change in precipitation is more complicated, increasing on average 10% in middle latitudes and decreasing 10–20% in the south, promoting local drying in already dry landscapes. Hot spots of possible forest shifts are modeled using our Siberian bioclimatic vegetation model and mountain vegetation model with respect to climate anomalies observed pre-2010 and predicted 2020 Hadley scenarios. Forests are predicted to shift northwards along the central Siberian Plateau and upslope in both the northern and southern mountains. South of the central Siberian Plateau, steppe advancement is predicted that was previously non-existent north of 56°N latitude. South of 56°N, steppe expansion is predicted in the dry environments of Khakasiya and Tyva. In the southern mountains, it is predicted that the lower tree line will migrate upslope due to increased dryness in the intermontane Tyvan basins. The hot spots of vegetation change that are predicted by our models are confirmed by regional literature data.     

Effect of rise in spring air temperature on the arrival dates and reproductive success of the Song Thrush, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Turdus philomelos</Emphasis> (C.L. Brehm, 1831) in the forest–steppe of the Russian Plain

The effect of rise in spring air temperature on the breeding phenology and reproductive success of the Song Thrush in the Voronezh Nature Reserve have been studied over the periods of 1987 to 1990 and 2008 to 2012. The results show that relatively high air temperatures provide for earlier arrival of the birds from wintering grounds, earlier and more synchronous breeding of the majority of nesting pairs, and an increase in clutch size and proportion of pairs producing two broods per season. Predation pressure on bird nests decreases under such conditions, which markedly improves reproductive success. Climate warming is conducive to increasing breeding productivity of the Song Thrush population as a whole.     

Expansion of Evergreen Conifers to the Larch-Dominated Zone and Climatic Trends

The expansion of so-called evergreen conifers (EGCs), including Siberian stone pine, spruce, and fir, along the transect oriented from the boundary of the larch-dominated zone (LDZ; mixed forests of the Yenisei Ridge) to its center has been studied. The normalized dispersal coefficient calculated as K _i = (n _i – N _i )/(n _i + N _i ), where n _i and N _i are the relative numbers of the ith species in the undergrowth and the upper layer, respectively, serves as an indicator of the expansion. It has been found that the K _i values for EGCs (and birch) are higher than the K _i of larch even in the zone absolutely dominated by larch, where the relative numbers of EGCs in the upper layer is less than 1%. The EGC undergrowth has mainly been formed during the past 20–30 years, which is correlated with the trend of summer temperatures The spread of EGCs in the LDZ depends on the frequency of forest fires. The decrease in the time intervals between fires in the 20th century to 65 years (versus 100 years in the 19th century) may have prevented the expansion of competing species in the LDZ. The results obtained indicate that EGCs and birch penetrate into the zone traditionally dominated by larch, which is related to climatic changes during the past three decades. At the same time, tree stand density is increasing in the forest-tundra ecotone, and larch is spreading further into the tundra zone.__________Translated from Ekologiya, No. 3, 2005, pp. 186–193.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Kharuk, Dvinskaya, Ranson, Im.     

Long-term increase in climatic dryness in the East-Mediterranean as evidenced for the island of Samos

The Eastern Mediterranean region is among the regions which were predicted to become drier under IPCC climate scenarios. Here, we document a gradual reduction of rainfall and tree growth and the loss of rural springs during the last decades of the twentieth century. Years with severe drought are associated with very low tree growth (dendrochronology) and dry falling of springs as evidenced by interviews with local stakeholders. The paper discusses the consequences of accelerating drought on natural vegetation and agriculture and points at the interaction with fire dynamics and economy, both likely to enhance the drought effect.     

Structure and formation of conifer stands in the upper timberline ecotone on the North Chuya Ridge,Central Altai

The structure of Siberian stone pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour.) and Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) stands and specific features of their formation have been studies in the forest-tundra ecotone on the North Chuya Ridge (2235–2475 m a.s.l.). Changes in the structure of these stands along the transition from the upper boundary of closed forests to the high-mountain tundra have proved to have an ambiguous pattern. Both tree species form mixed clusters of similar-aged trees in the lower part of the ecotone but grow singly, in scatters, in its upper part. The formation of conifer stands (tree clusters) in the lower part of the ecotone, on the slopes of the Aktru River valley, began during climate warming in the second half of the 19th century. The expansion of confers to its upper part took place markedly later, in the early 20th century (Siberian larch) or even in the 1930s (Siberian stone pine).     

缙云山银木荷（ Schima argentea Pritz.ex Diels）林物种组成与多样性变化

定位研究了25 a来缙云山银木荷林物种组成及多样性在自然演替过程中的动态变化。结果表明，银木荷林维管植物物种由57种（隶属于24科，46属）减少到38种（隶属于19科，26属）。林下草本和层间植物逐渐消失，胸径大于75 cm的乔木层树总胸断面积有所减少。尽管群落物种组成以及多样性发生改变，但是银木荷依然是优势树种，处于林冠层，而林冠亚层的白毛新木姜子、四川山矾、长蕊杜鹃逐渐增多，短刺米槠逐渐减少。群落乔木层4个α多样性指数都呈下降趋势，丰富度指数由298下降为199，Shannon Wiener指数25 a间减小了034，Simpson指数和Pielou指数变化都很小；β多样性分析结果显示，银木荷群落的物种差异很大。研究表明，25 a间群落物种差异显著。揭示缙云山银木荷林自然演替过程中的物种组成和多样性变化规律，可为缙云山保护区及长江流域中上游亚热带常绿阔叶林的银木荷群落的管理提供一定的参考价值。