Impacts of land use,restoration, and climate change on tropical peat carbon stocks in the twenty-first century: implications for climate mitigation

The climate mitigation potential of tropical peatlands has gained increased attention as Southeast Asian peatlands are being deforested, drained and burned at very high rates, causing globally significant carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions to the atmosphere. We used a process-based dynamic tropical peatland model to explore peat carbon (C) dynamics of several management scenarios within the context of simulated twenty-first century climate change. Simulations of all scenarios with land use, including restoration, indicated net C losses over the twenty-first century ranging from 10 to 100 % of pre-disturbance values. Fire can be the dominant C-loss pathway, particularly in the drier climate scenario we tested. Simulated 100 years of oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) cultivation with an initial prescribed burn resulted in 2400–3000 Mg CO₂?ha^?1 total emissions. Simulated restoration following one 25-year oil palm rotation reduced total emissions to 440–1200 Mg CO₂?ha^?1, depending on climate. These results suggest that even under a very optimistic scenario of hydrological and forest restoration and the wettest climate regime, only about one third of the peat C lost to the atmosphere from 25 years of oil palm cultivation can be recovered in the following 75 years if the site is restored. Emissions from a simulated land degradation scenario were most sensitive to climate, with total emissions ranging from 230 to 10,600 Mg CO₂?ha^?1 over 100 years for the wettest and driest dry season scenarios, respectively. The large difference was driven by increased fire probability. Therefore, peat fire suppression is an effective management tool to maintain tropical peatland C stocks in the near term and should be a high priority for climate mitigation efforts. In total, we estimate emissions from current cleared peatlands and peatlands converted to oil palm in Southeast Asia to be 8.7 Gt CO₂ over 100 years with a moderate twenty-first century climate. These emissions could be minimized by effective fire suppression and hydrological restoration.     

河滨修复湿地不同植物配置对甲烷排放的影响

为了探讨河滨修复湿地在不同条件下CH₄的排放规律及降低CH₄排放的调控途径,以自行设计和建造的河滨湿地为研究对象,对植物种类配置及植株密度进行人为调控,运用静态箱-气相色谱法测定CH₄排放通量. 结果表明:①CH₄排放通量具有明显的季节性变化规律,其中夏季最大,占全年CH₄总排放量的50%以上;冬季最小,低于全年CH₄总排放量的5%. ②植物种植会明显增加CH₄的排放,不同植物类型通过改变w(SOC)(SOC为土壤有机碳)、气体传输机制以及产CH₄菌群落来改变湿地的CH₄排放,4种供试植物中,通气组织较发达的芦苇和水葱湿地CH₄排放通量分别为(1.98±0.78)和(1.41±0.58)mg/(m2·h),显著低于黄菖蒲的(6.77±1.92)mg/(m2·h). ③提高植株密度可以通过增加输气通道和提高w(SOC)来促进湿地CH₄排放,黄菖蒲植株密度为150株/m2时,CH₄平均排放通量为(10.31±2.56)mg/(m2·h),比植株密度为56株/m2时高出近30%. 因此,建议在新建和修复河滨湿地的设计和建造过程中,种植芦苇和水葱等通气组织较发达的植物,并在满足湿地修复、生态环境保护和景观营造等要求的前提下,适当控制植株密度,以有效减少CH₄排放.      

Climate-driven changes in air quality over Europe by the end of the 21st century,with special reference to Portugal

Climate change alone may deeply impact air quality levels in the atmosphere because the changes in the meteorological conditions will induce changes on the transport, dispersion and transformation of air pollutants. The aim of this work was to evaluate the impact of climate change on the air quality over Europe and Portugal, using a reference year (year 1990) and a IPCC SRES A2 year (year 2100). The Hadley Centre global atmospheric circulation model (HadAM3P) was used to provide results for these two climatic scenarios, which were then used as synoptic forcing for the MM5-CHIMERE air quality modelling system. In order to assess the contribution of future climate change on O₃ and PM concentrations, no changes in regional emissions were assumed and only climate change forcing was considered. The modelling results suggest that the O₃ monthly mean levels in the atmosphere may increase almost 50 μg m^?3 across Europe in July under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. In Portugal, this increase may reach 20 μg m^?3. The changes of PM10 monthly average values over Europe will depend on the region. The increase in PM10 concentrations during specific months could be explained by the average reduction of the boundary layer height and wind speed.     

Fail-safe solar radiation management geoengineering

To avoid dangerous changes to the climate system, the global mean temperature must not rise more than 2 °C from the 19th century level. The German Advisory Council on Global Change recommends maintaining the rate of change in temperature to within 0.2 °C per decade. This paper supposes that a geoengineering option of solar radiation management (SRM) by injecting aerosol into the Earth’s stratosphere becomes applicable in the future to meet those temperature conditions. However, a failure to continue the use of this option could cause a rapid temperature rebound, and thus we propose a principle of SRM use that the temperature conditions must be satisfied even after SRM termination at any time. We present economically optimal trajectories of the amounts of SRM use and the reduction of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions under our principle by using an economic model of climate change. To meet the temperature conditions described above, the SRM must reduce radiative forcing by slightly more than 1 W/m² at most, and industrial CO₂ emissions must be cut by 80 % by the end of the 21st century relative to 2005, assuming a climate sensitivity of 3 °C. Lower-level use of SRM is required for a higher climate sensitivity; otherwise, the temperature will rise faster in the case of SRM termination. Considering potential economic damages of environmental side effects due to the use of SRM, the contribution of SRM would have to be much smaller.     

生物炭添加对曝气人工湿地脱氮及氧化亚氮释放的影响

尽管增加曝气会提升潜流人工湿地中溶解氧(DO)浓度,改善污染物去除效果,但由于湿地中氧扩散条件差,易引起DO分布不均,导致氧化亚氮(N_2O)的排放.生物炭由于孔隙率大、比表面积大,近年来逐渐被应用于传统湿地系统,实现强化脱氮和温室气体减排.为了探讨生物炭对曝气潜流湿地的影响,本实验在温室内构建曝气生物炭潜流湿地(SW),以常规曝气潜流湿地(CW)作为参照,探究生物炭投加对湿地系统脱氮性能及N_2O排放的影响.结果表明,SW系统曝气段平均DO浓度为2.66 mg·L~(-1),较CW提高了0.42 mg·L~(-1).SW系统平均出水NH_4~+-N和总氮(TN)浓度为0.17 mg·L~(-1)和1.98 mg·L~(-1),去除率分别达到99.5%和95.0%,较CW提高了5.1%和6.9%.生物炭的投加对湿地系统有机物污染去除效果无显著影响(P0.05),出水化学需氧量(COD)稳定在25 mg·L~(-1),去除率达到94.0%.SW系统中N_2O的平均释放速率为0.27 mg·(m~2·h)~(-1),较CW系统降低了70.7%.因此,生物炭投加可作为一种有效的控制手段来强化曝气湿地系统脱氮,实现N_2O气体减排.     

Methane and CO2 fluxes from an Indonesian peatland used for sago palm (Metroxylon sagu Rottb.) cultivation: Effects of fertilizer and groundwater level management

Tropical peatland is a vast potential land source for biological production, but peatland is a major natural source of greenhouse gases, especially methane (CH₄). It is important to evaluate the changes in greenhouse gas emissions induced by cultivation practices for sustainable agricultural use of tropical peatland. We investigated the effects of fertilizer application and the groundwater level on CH₄ and carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes in an Indonesian peat soil. The crop cultivated was sago palm (Metroxylon sagu Rottb.), which can grow on tropical peat soil without drainage and yield great amounts of starch. CH₄ emission through sago palm plants was first estimated by collecting gas samples immediately after cutting sago suckers using the closed chamber method. The CH₄ fluxes ranged from negative values to 1.0 mg C m⁻² h⁻¹. The mean CH₄ flux from treatment with macroelements (N, P, and K) and microelements (B, Cu, Fe, and Zn) applied at normal rates did not differ significantly from that of the No fertilizer treatment, although increasing the application rates of macroelements or microelements by 10-fold increased the CH₄ flux by a factor of two or three. The relationship between CH₄ flux and the groundwater table was regressed to a logarithmic equation, which indicated that to maintain a small CH₄ flux, the groundwater table should be maintained at <−45 cm. The CO₂ fluxes ranged between 24 and 150 mg C m⁻² h⁻¹, and were not significantly affected by either fertilizer treatments or the groundwater level. The inclusion of sago palm suckers in a chamber increased CH₄ emission from the peat soil significantly. Thus, gas emissions mediated by certain kinds of palm plants should not be disregarded.     

中国硫酸盐气溶胶直接辐射效应数值模拟

硫酸盐气溶胶对地球系统能量收支平衡和全球气候变化有重要影响.本研究基于中国2007年二氧化硫排放清单,应用Can METOP、OPAC和SBDART模型,对中国硫酸盐气溶胶直接辐射效应及其空间分布和时间变化进行分析.结果表明,2007年中国硫酸盐气溶胶直接辐射效应全年波动范围在-9.1~0.0008 W·m~(-2)之间,全国年均值为-1.372 W·m~(-2),低于全球均值(-0.35 W·m~(-2)),其中华东地区最强为-5.017 W·m~(-2),西北地区最弱仅为-0.22 W·m~(-2),该空间分布主要受SO_2排放的空间差异及西风导致的向东溢出效应影响.同时,除华南之外的绝大多数地区夏季辐射效应最强、冬季最弱,这主要由SO_2向硫酸盐的转化率及相对湿度的季节差异决定.本研究有助于了解中国硫酸盐气溶胶及其气候效应的时空差异,对评估硫酸盐气溶胶的气候效应有重要意义.     

Testing emissions equivalency metrics against climate policy goals

The climate impacts of energy technologies are frequently assessed using equivalency metrics, which convert emissions of multiple greenhouse gases to a common scale. Numerous metrics have been proposed that incorporate, in different ways, information about the time-dependent impacts of gases. However, more focus has been placed on proposing metrics than on testing their performance in real-world use cases. Here we present a testing approach that simulates how metrics would affect the selection of energy technology portfolios that comply with a CO₂-equivalent emissions cap. Unintended radiative forcing outcomes can occur, emphasizing the need to test metrics in a practical context. We demonstrate the approach for policies designed to limit radiative forcing and discuss extensions to limits on temperature or economic impacts. Metric performance is evaluated by (i) how much actual radiative forcing overshoots the intended stabilization level and (ii) the level of energy consumption permitted. We use this testing approach to study a variety of metrics based on an estimated radiative forcing stabilization time under two climate policy goals. We find that these goal-inspired metrics, if chosen carefully, can exhibit performance improvements over the standard global warming potential (GWP) while maintaining its transparency and ease-of-use. These alternative metrics can significantly reduce the overshoot in radiative forcing observed with the GWP, at a small cost in energy consumption. Moreover, simple metrics can exhibit similar performance improvements to more complex ones.     

2015年中国地区大气甲烷排放估计及空间分布

CH₄是仅次于CO₂的重要温室气体,也是重要的化学活性气体.定量估算我国甲烷的排放量及分析其空间分布特征,对于控制温室气体排放,减缓温室效应具有重要意义.本文以2015年中国官方统计年鉴资料为基础,利用IPCC排放清单指南、国内外排放因子研究结果及动力学模型方法,从能源活动（煤炭开采和油气系统）、农业活动（反刍动物、稻田排放和秸秆露天燃烧）、自然源排放（自然湿地和植被排放）、废弃物处理（固体废弃物、工业污水和生活污水）和人工湿地等几个主要方面,对中国地区的CH₄排放进行定量估计.结果表明：中国地区2015年CH₄排放总量为61.59 Tg,其中以农业活动和能源活动为主要排放源,排放量分别达到20.42 Tg和20.39 Tg,占总排放量比例分别约为33.2%和33.1%.CH₄自然源考虑了植被和自然湿地排放,排放量为11.77 Tg,占比为19.1%;废弃物处理产生的CH₄排放量为8.64 Tg,占比为14.0%;人工湿地排放量为0.37 Tg,占比为0.6%.从空间分布来看,CH₄排放具有较明显的不均匀性,大值区主要集中在华北、西南及东南地区,而西北地区的排放量则相对较低,主要与各地的资源环境、人口密度和经济情况密切相关.     

Active Amplification of the Terrestrial Albedo to Mitigate Climate Change: An Exploratory Study

To date, international efforts to mitigate climate change have focussed on reducing emissions of greenhouse gases in the energy, transportation and agriculture sectors, and on sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide in forests. Here, the potential to complement these efforts by actions to enhance the reflectance of solar insolation by the human settlement and grassland components of the Earth's terrestrial surface is explored. Preliminary estimates derived using a static two dimensional radiative transfer model indicate that such efforts could amplify the overall planetary albedo enough to offset the current global annual average level of radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases by as much as 30% or 0.76 Wm^{− 2}. Terrestrial albedo amplification may thus extend, by about 25 years, the time available to advance the development and use of low-emission energy conversion technologies which ultimately remain essential to mitigate long-term climate change. While a scoping analysis indicates the technical feasibility of sufficiently enhancing human settlement and grassland albedos to levels needed to achieve reductions in radiative forcing projected here, additional study is required on two fronts. Firstly, the modelled radiative forcing reductions are static estimates. As they would generate climate feedbacks, more detailed dynamic climate modelling would be needed to confirm the stationary value of the radiative forcing reduction that would result from land surface albedo amplification. Secondly, land surface albedo amplification schemes may have important economic and environmental impacts. Accurate ex ante impact assessments would be required to validate global implementation of related measures as a viable mitigation strategy.     

喀斯特石漠化治理区土壤CH4和CO2排放研究

本研究采用静态密闭箱-气相色谱法,于2016年12月到2017年11月对重庆市南川石漠化治理示范区4个岩溶碳汇试验区(金银花地JYH、人工造林地杨树林YSL、坡改梯PGT、经济作物花椒林地HJ)及3个对照区(荒地HD、非坡改梯FPGT、弃耕地QGD)的土壤甲烷、二氧化碳的浓度及排放通量进行原位观测,探讨我国南方喀斯特石漠化地区甲烷和二氧化碳浓度分布和时空排放规律,及岩溶区土壤温度、土壤含水率等环境因子对甲烷、二氧化碳排放的影响。结果表明:不同植被类型下土壤CO_2的浓度范围为5 003. 64～19 163. 23 mg/m~3,土壤CH_4的浓度范围为5. 35～7. 46 mg/m~3。土壤CO_2的排放通量具有随季节变化土壤CO_2排放通量随季节明显变化,在一定范围内土壤温度及土壤含水率都与CO_2排放通量呈显著正相关关系。土壤CH_4释放速率没有明显的季节变化规律,在个别月份出现显著变化表现为巨大的源与汇,主要是受到土壤温度、土壤含水率及土壤微生物的共同影响。     

The analysis of greenhouse gas emissions/reductions in waste sector in Vietnam

The global waste sector produces, on average, 2–5 % of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The amount of GHG emissions has grown steadily and is predicted to increase considerable in the forthcoming decades because of the increases in population and gross domestic product (GDP). However, the GHG mitigation opportunities for the sector are still fully not exploited, in particularly in developing countries. A series of initiatives were highly successful and showed that large reductions in emissions are possible. This study aims to propose a holistic quantification model, which can be used for estimation of waste generation and evaluation of the potential reduction of GHG emissions in waste sector for developing countries with a particular application to Vietnam. The two scenarios set for the study were business as usual (BaU) which waste management is assumed to follow past and current trends and CounterMeasure (CM) which alternative waste treatment and management are assessed. Total emissions in the BaU scenario are projected to increase from 29.47 MtCO₂eq in 2010 to 85.60 MtCO₂eq by 2030 and 176.32 MtCO₂eq by 2050. The highest emissions are due to methane (CH₄) released by disposal sites, accounting for about 60 % of the GHG emissions from waste in Vietnam in 2030. This emission is projected to increase significantly (67 % in 2050), unless more of the methane is captured and used for energy generation. The CM scenario gives emission reductions from 25.7 % (2020), 40.5 % (2030) to 56.6 % (2050) compared to the BaU scenario. The highest GHG reduction is achieved through recycling, followed by methane recovery to optimize the co-benefit for climate change mitigation.     

Climate and air quality-driven scenarios of ozone and aerosol precursor abatement

In addition to causing domestic and regional environmental effects, many air pollutants contribute to radiative forcing (RF) of the climate system. However, climate effects are not considered when cost-effective abatement targets for these pollutants are established, nor are they included in current international climate agreements. We construct air pollution abatement scenarios in 2030 which target cost-effective reductions in RF in the EU, USA, and China and compare these to abatement scenarios which instead target regional ozone effects and particulate matter concentrations. Our analysis covers emissions of PM (fine, black carbon and organic carbon), SO₂, NO_x, CH₄, VOCs, and CO. We find that the effect synergies are strong for PM/BC, VOC, CO and CH₄. While an air quality strategy targeted at reducing ozone will also reduce RF, this will not be the case for a strategy targeting particulate matter. Abatement in China dominates RF reduction, but there are cheap abatement options also available in the EU and USA. The justification for international cooperation on air quality issues is underlined when the co-benefits of reduced RF are considered. Some species, most importantly SO₂, contribute a negative forcing on climate. We suggest that given current knowledge, NO_x and SO₂ should be ignored in RF-targeted abatement policies.     

胶州湾盐沼CH3I通量的季节特征及其影响因素

为了探究胶州湾盐沼碘甲烷(CH_3I)的排放通量、排放规律及其影响因素,在2016年7月—2017年5月期间,采用静态箱法-气相色谱法对CH_3I进行了观测.结果表明,胶州湾盐沼显示为CH_3I的排放源.互花米草湿地(S区)CH_3I通量均值为9.61 nmol·m~(-2)·d~(-1),光滩(M区)CH_3I通量均值为6.63 nmol·m~(-2)·d~(-1).CH_3I的排放通量在S区与M区之间存在明显区别,S区CH_3I通量在夏、秋季较高,最高值出现在夏季;而M区CH_3I通量在冬、春季较高,最高值出现在冬季.S区与M区各月CH_3I通量总体呈相反的变化趋势,且S区与M区CH_3I通量的最大值和最小值都出现在7月.胶州湾盐沼环境因素较为复杂,因此,CH_3I排放通量的影响因素并不单一.土壤TN、pH、温度及互花米草对CH_3I通量的影响较为显著,而含水量、盐度及其他养分状况等对CH_3I通量也有一定的作用.此外,冻融过程及潮汐作用的影响也不容忽视.     

不同污水处理工艺非二氧化碳温室气体的释放

甲烷和氧化亚氮是两种重要的非二氧化碳温室气体.城市污水处理厂是甲烷和氧化亚氮的重要释放源.因此,为探究不同污水处理工艺甲烷和氧化亚氮的释放现状和变化规律,通过浮流式表面集气罩对西安市第三污水处理厂（Orbal氧化沟工艺）和第四污水处理厂（A/A/O工艺）生物处理过程中甲烷和氧化亚氮的排放情况进行测定,比较不同污水处理工艺中非二氧化碳温室气体的释放情况,并以第四污水处理厂为例研究溶解氧、温度对非二氧化碳温室气体释放量的影响.结果表明,西安市第三污水处理厂每m³进水释放甲烷1181 mg（以CH₄计）、氧化亚氮36.20 mg（以N₂O计）,西安市第四污水处理厂每m³进水释放甲烷209 mg（以CH₄计）、氧化亚氮54.64 mg（以N₂O计）.温度、曝气方式、溶解氧浓度、亚硝酸盐氧化速率和最大产甲烷活性是甲烷和氧化亚氮释放量的重要影响因素.     

人工潜流湿地处理稠油采出水的实验研究

人工潜流湿地由3个面积各为900m^2的芦苇床组成，平均布水量分布为6m^3/d、18m^3/d和30m^3/d，进水污染物平均浓度为：COD401．08mg/L,BOD531.88mg/L，矿物汨油24．67mg/L，TN11．67mg／L，经潜流湿地处理后上述污染物分别减少了COD67．25％－80．77％，BOD580．02％－89．05％，石油类78．00％－88．45％，TN75．32％－82．43％，经检测，试验期间潜流湿地的渗透率为0．52m/d，在这种条件下潜流湿地的耐冲击负荷强，出水水质稳定。     

庭院垃圾对填埋场甲烷的减量化研究

将熟化时间为24个月和2个月的庭院垃圾分别用于建设0.9 m厚的1#和2#两个生物覆盖层单元,并进行了为期15个月的野外试验,以验证庭院垃圾能否作为生物覆盖层材料用于减少垃圾填埋场甲烷的排放,以及利用同位素和质量守恒方法量化生物覆盖层对垃圾填埋场甲烷的氧化能力.结果表明,两个生物覆盖层对甲烷的氧化能力在建设初期达到整个观测期的最高值,分别为(141±10)g·m-2·d-1和(197±27)g·m-2·d-1,随后生物覆盖单元的甲烷氧化能力随季节交替降低至18~120 g·m-2·d-1和23~70 g·m-2·d-1.试验的中后期,在两个生物覆盖单元中均观测到明显数量的甲烷产出.试验结果表明24个月和2个月熟化时间的庭院垃圾作为生物覆盖填料,均具有较好的甲烷减量化能力,但所含不稳定有机质在厌氧条件下的降解会造成额外的甲烷释放.除此之外,在利用质量守恒方法量化甲烷氧化率时,忽略非甲烷氧化菌的呼吸作用会高估庭院垃圾对甲烷的减量化能力.     

双视角下中国畜牧业甲烷排放的温室效应

准确评价甲烷（CH₄）的温室效应是制定有效减排路径的基础.首次采用新提出的、针对短寿命气候污染物（SLCP）设计的气候指标GWP-star （GWP^*）对中国畜牧业CH₄排放的温室效应进行定量评价,并与常用的GWP指标评价结果相比较.结果表明,GWP的视角下我国畜牧业CH₄排放的温室效应持续增加.因此,畜牧业实现碳中和需要完全消除排放,或以增加碳汇、增加资源化利用的形式抵消每年稳定的CH₄排放.在GWP^*的视角下,2015~2019年间畜牧业CH₄排放的温室效应较20年前有所减少,降低的热量相当于从20年前的大气中减少2.1×10⁴万t CO₂的热量,畜牧业只需每年有效降低0.3%的CH₄排放则可在短期内实现自身碳中和.在中国畜牧业持续采取有效减排措施的情况下,采用GWP^*的标准制定减排目标比用GWP制定的减排目标更早达到,但选择GWP还是GWP^*需要综合考虑评价的目的、评价的时间尺度和实际可操作性.     

The adequacy of GWPs as indicators of damage costsincurred by global warming

This article looks at the ability of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) towork as indicators of equivalence for temperature development and damagecosts. We look at two abatement scenarios that are equivalent when using100-year GWPs: one scenario reduces short-lived gases, mainly methane(CH₄); the other scenario reduces carbon dioxide (CO₂).Despite their equivalence in terms of CO₂ equivalents, the scenariosdo not result in equal rates or levels of temperature change. The disparitiescontinue as we move further down the chain of causality toward damagecosts, measured either in terms of rate of climate change or level of climatechange. Compared to the CH₄ mitigation scenario, the CO₂mitigation scenario gives present value costs 1.3 and 1.5 times higher forlevel- and rate-dependent damage costs, respectively, assuming a discountrate of 3%. We also test the GWPs for other time horizons and theconclusions remain the same; using GWP as an index to reflect equivalentclimate effects and damage costs from emissions is questionable.     

Energy use and environmental impacts of forest operations in Sweden

An inventory of energy use in forest operations in Sweden 1996 and 1997 comprises all operations including seedling production, silviculture, logging and secondary haulage to forest industries. Energy use in Swedish forestry was about 150–200 MJ/m³ of timber, depending on the locality in Sweden. This inventory demonstrates much higher energy use for secondary haulage than was anticipated by earlier studies. In contrast to this, energy use in logging shows a slight decrease compared to the state of operations a decade earlier, possibly reflecting improvements in technology and management. Although secondary haulage operations account for the largest share of the energy used, logging and silviculture generate the highest levels of certain exhaust emissions. Emissions were either fuel-related (CO₂, SO_x) or engine-related (hydrocarbons, NO_x). Use of renewable fuels and improvements in engine design and the better adjustment of engines to forestry operations could decrease these kinds of emissions.The emission of gases that contribute to climate change is very small compared to national emissions. Nevertheless, there is scope for a further decrease of this contribution. Timber is an interesting raw material for alternative fuels, thus enabling a better market prospect for such timber that does not meet the specifications of traditional forest industry.