Formulation and testing of a novel river nitrification model

The nitrification process in many river water quality models has been approximated by a simple first order dependency on the water column ammonia concentration, while the benthic contribution has routinely been neglected. In this study a mathematical framework was developed for sediment bed nitrification based on mass transfer theory and Monod bacterial growth kinetics. The model describes ammonia transport across the boundary layer and consumption within the biofilm to quantify the overall nitrification flux. Model results suggest that nitrification is usually controlled by the boundary layer thickness, and we estimated a nitrification velocity range between 0.14 and 0.97 m d⁻¹, assuming typical boundary thicknesses of 0.1–1.0 mm. These ranges compared favorably with reported literature values, including our own measurements. The model was applied to several river systems of different depths where nitrification rates and river depths were available. Assuming that nitrification is exclusively a benthic process, the average velocity of all the rivers evaluated was 0.85 m d⁻¹ (r² = 0.72).     

Structural changes in lake functioning induced from nutrient loading and climate variability

Climate variability is increasingly recognized as an important regulatory factor, capable of influencing the structural properties of aquatic ecosystems. Lakes appear to be particularly sensitive to the ecological impacts of climate variability, and several long time series have shown a close coupling between climate, lake thermal properties and individual organism physiology, population abundance, community structure, and food web dynamics. Thus, understanding the complex interplay among meteorological forcing, hydrological variability, and ecosystem functioning is essential for improving the credibility of model-based water resources/fisheries management. Our objective herein is to examine the relative importance of the ecological mechanisms underlying plankton seasonal variability in Lake Washington, Washington State (USA), over a 35-year period (1964–1998). Our analysis is founded upon an intermediate complexity plankton model that is used to reproduce the limiting nutrient (phosphate)–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus (particulate phosphorus) dynamics in the lake. Model parameterization is based on a Bayesian calibration scheme that offers insights into the degree of information the data contain about model inputs and allows obtaining predictions along with uncertainty bounds for modeled output variables. The model accurately reproduces the key seasonal planktonic patterns in Lake Washington and provides realistic estimates of predictive uncertainty for water quality variables of environmental management interest. A principal component analysis of the annual estimates of the underlying ecological processes highlighted the significant role of the phosphorus recycling stemming from the zooplankton excretion on the planktonic food web variability. We also identified a moderately significant signature of the local climatic conditions (air temperature) on phytoplankton growth (r = 0.41), herbivorous grazing (r = 0.38), and detritus mineralization (r = 0.39). Our study seeks linkages with the conceptual food web model proposed by Hampton et al. [Hampton, S.E., Scheuerell, M.D., Schindler, D.E., 2006b. Coalescence in the Lake Washington story: interaction strengths in a planktonic food web. Limnol. Oceanogr. 51, 2042–2051.] to emphasize the “bottom-up” control of the Lake Washington plankton phenology. The posterior predictive distributions of the plankton model are also used to assess the exceedance frequency and confidence of compliance with total phosphorus (15 μg L⁻¹) and chlorophyll a (4 μg L⁻¹) threshold levels during the summer-stratified period in Lake Washington. Finally, we conclude by underscoring the importance of explicitly acknowledging the uncertainty in ecological forecasts to the management of freshwater ecosystems under a changing global environment.     

Algal blooms decrease care but increase egg survival in a fish with paternal care

Human-induced eutrophication, resulting in algal blooms and increased water turbidity, is an alarming problem in aquatic systems. Here, we experimentally tested the impact of algal turbidity on parental care, egg fanning, and time in the nest, in the sand goby, Pomatoschistus minutus, a fish with uniparental male care. We allowed males to care for their eggs in either clear water or water made turbid by planktonic algae. In the early brood cycle, males fanned their eggs less in turbid than in clear water, but this difference disappeared later. Despite decreased care, egg survival was higher in turbid conditions, indicating that early fanning may partly be redundant for egg survival and perhaps used more as courtship. Males also spent more time out of their nest in turbid water, perhaps as a means to encounter additional females under conditions of low visibility.     

Modelling the thresholds of nitrogen/phosphorus concentration and hydraulic retention time for bloom control in reclaimed water landscape

● A new model for bloom control in open land scape water was constructed. ● It considers the effects of temperature and light on algae growth. ● It describes threshold curve of nitrogen, phosp horus and hydraulic retention time. ● Light and temperature dependent growth para meters of typical algae were obtained. The risks posed by algal blooms caused by nitrogen and phosphorus in reclaimed water used in urban water landscapes need to be carefully controlled. In this study, the combined effects of the nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations and the light intensity and temperature on the specific growth rates of algae were determined using Monod, Steele, and Arrhenius models, then an integrated algal growth model was developed. The algae biomass, nitrogen concentration, and phosphorus concentration mass balance equations were used to establish a new control model describing the nitrogen and phosphorus concentration and hydraulic retention time thresholds for algal blooms. The model parameters were determined by fitting the models to data acquired experimentally. Finally, the control model and numerical simulations for six typical algae and mixed algae under standard conditions were used to determine nitrogen/phosphorus concentration and hydraulic retention time thresholds for landscape water to which reclaimed water is supplied (i.e., for a reclaimed water landscape).     

A simple Lagrangian model to simulate temporal variability of algae in the Elbe River

We present a five-year (1997–2001) numerical simulation of daily mean chlorophyll a concentrations at station Geesthacht Weir on the lower Elbe River (Germany) using an extremely simple Lagrangian model driven by (a) water discharge, global radiation, water temperature, and (b) silica observations at station Schmilka in the upper reach of the Elbe River. Notwithstanding the lack of many mechanistic details, the model is able to reproduce observed chlorophyll a variability surprisingly well, including a number of sharp valleys and ascents/descents in the observed time series. The model's success is based on the assumption of three key effects: prevailing light conditions, sporadic limitation of algal growth due to lack of silica and algae loss rates that increase above an empirically specified temperature threshold of 20 °C. Trimmed-down model versions are studied to analyse the model's success in terms of these mechanisms.In each of the five years the model consistently fails, however, to properly simulate characteristic steep increases of chlorophyll a concentrations after pronounced spring minima. Curing this model deficiency by global model re-calibration was found to be impossible. However, suspension of silica consumption by algae for up to 10 days in spring is shown to serve as a successful placeholder for processes that are disregarded in the model but apparently play an important role in the distinctly marked period of model failure. For the remainder of the year the very simple model was found to be adequate.     

A spatial model of white sturgeon rearing habitat in the lower Columbia River,USA

Concerns over the potential effects of in-water placement of dredged materials prompted us to develop a GIS-based model that characterizes in a spatially explicit manner white sturgeon Acipenser transmontanus rearing habitat in the lower Columbia River, USA. The spatial model was developed using water depth, riverbed slope and roughness, fish positions collected in 2002, and Mahalanobis distance (D²). We created a habitat suitability map by identifying a Mahalanobis distance under which >50% of white sturgeon locations occurred in 2002 (i.e., high-probability habitat). White sturgeon preferred relatively moderate to high water depths, and low to moderate riverbed slope and roughness values. The eigenvectors indicated that riverbed slope and roughness were slightly more important than water depth, but all three variables were important. We estimated the impacts that fill might have on sturgeon habitat by simulating the addition of fill to the thalweg, in 3-m increments, and recomputing Mahalanobis distances. Channel filling simulations revealed that up to 9 m of fill would have little impact on high-probability habitat, but 12 and 15 m of fill resulted in habitat declines of ∼12% and ∼45%, respectively. This is the first spatially explicit predictive model of white sturgeon rearing habitat in the lower Columbia River, and the first to quantitatively predict the impacts of dredging operations on sturgeon habitat. Future research should consider whether water velocity improves the accuracy and specificity of the model, and to assess its applicability to other areas in the Columbia River.     

Importance of life cycle events in the population dynamics of Gonyaulax tamarensis

Life cycle changes that allow populations of the toxic dinoflagellate Gonyaulax tamarensis Lebour to inhabit the benthos and the plankton alternately are important factors regulationg the initiation and decline of blooms in restricted embavments. When the dynamics of these estuarine populations were monitored during “bloom” and “non bloom” years, it was shown that: (1) each year, germination of benthie cysts inoculated the overlying waters during the vernal warming period, but a large residual population remained in the sediments throughout the blooms; (2) the resulting planktonic population began growth under suboptimal temperature conditions; (3) the populations developed from this inoculum through asexual reproduction until sexuality (and cyst formation) were induced; (4) encystment was not linked to any obvious environmental cue and occurred under apparently optimal conditions; and (5) an increase in the number of non-mitotic swimming cells (planozygotes, the precursors to dormant cysts) accompanied the rapid decline of the planktonic population. Thus encystment, in combination with hypothesized losses due to advection and grazing, contributed substantiatly to the decline of the vegetative cell population. We conclude that the encystment/excystment cycle temporally restricts the occurrence of the vegetative population and may not be optimized for rapid or sustained vegetative growth and bloom formation in shallow embayments. The factors that distinguish “bloom” from “non-bloom” years thus appear to be operating on the growth of the planktonic population.     

Modeling estuarine-shelf exchanges in a deltaic estuary: Implications for coastal carbon budgets and hypoxia

The export of wetland-derived materials to the coastal ocean (i.e., the “Outwelling” hypothesis) has received considerable attention over the past several decades. While a number of studies have shown that estuaries export appreciable amounts of nutrients and carbon, few studies have attempted to estimate the importance of estuarine sources for the coastal carbon budgets in river-dominated coastal ecosystems. A novel tidal prism model was developed to examine estuarine-shelf exchanges in the Barataria estuary, a deltaic estuary located in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. This estuary has been the site of a massive wetland loss, and it has been hypothesized that carbon export from the eroding coastal wetlands supports the development of a large hypoxic zone in the coastal Gulf of Mexico. The model results show that the Barataria estuary receives nitrogen through the tidal passes and releases carbon to the coastal ocean. The mean calculated tidal water discharge of 6930 m³ s⁻¹ is equivalent to about 43% of the lower Mississippi River discharge. The annual total organic carbon (TOC) export is 109 million kg, or 57 gC m² yr⁻¹ when prorated to the total water area of the estuary. This carbon export is equivalent to a loss of 0.5 m of wetland soil horizon over an area of 8.4 km², and accounts for about 34% of the observed annual wetland loss in the estuary between 1978 and 2000. Compared to the lower Mississippi River, the Barataria estuary appears to be a very small source of TOC for the northern Gulf of Mexico (2.7% of riverine TOC), and is unlikely to have a significant influence on the development of the Gulf's hypoxia.     

The role of the amphipod <Emphasis Type="Italic">Gammarus locusta</Emphasis> as a grazer on macroalgae in Swedish seagrass meadows

Mesograzers are thought to play a critical role in seagrass beds by preventing overgrowth of ephemeral algae. On the Swedish west coast, eelgrass Zostera marina has decreased in recent decades as a result of eutrophication and increased growth of macroalgal mats (mainly filamentous Ulva spp. and Ectocarpales), with no indication of grazer control of the algae. The aim of this study was to investigate the ability of the amphipod Gammarus locusta to control algal blooms during nutrient-enriched and ambient conditions, using a combination of laboratory, field and model studies. Laboratory experiments demonstrated that juvenile and adult G. locusta could consume both Ulva spp. and Ectocarpales, but that consumption of Ulva spp. was significantly higher. Cannibalism was common in individual treatments involving multiple size-classes of G. locusta, but only large, male gammarids consumed smaller juveniles in the presence of Ulva spp. as an alternative food source. However, no negative effects of cannibalism were found on total grazing impact. A model using size-specific grazing rates and growth rates of G. locusta and of Ulva spp. suggests that approximately 62 young juvenile, or 27 adult G. locusta are needed per gram DW of Ulva spp. to control the algal growth during ambient nutrient conditions, and approximately 2.6 times as many gammarids during enhanced nutrient conditions. On the Swedish west coast, densities and mean sizes of G. locusta in eelgrass beds are below these critical values, suggesting that the gammarids will not be able to control the growth of the filamentous macroalgae. However, in the field cage experiment, immigration of juveniles and reproduction of encaged adult G. locusta resulted in unexpectedly high densities of G. locusta (>4,000 individual m⁻²), and very low biomass of Ulva spp. in both ambient and nutrient-enriched treatments. Although the high numbers of juveniles in all cages precluded any significant treatment effects, this suggests that in the absent of predators, the population of G. locusta can grow significantly and control the biomass of Ulva spp. Furthermore, low grazing of Ectocarpales in the laboratory and high biomass of these filamentous brown algae in the field indicate a preference for the more palatable green algae Ulva spp. This study indicates that the high grazing capacity of G. locusta, in combination with high reproduction and growth rates, would allow the amphipod to play a key role in Z. marina ecosystems by controlling destructive blooms of filamentous green algae. However, high predation pressure appears to prevent large populations of G. locusta in eelgrass beds on the Swedish west coast today.     

Local calibration of coliforms parameters of water quality problem at Igapó I Lake, Londrina, Paraná, Brazil

This article presents results concerning the local calibration of the transport parameters (longitudinal and transversal diffusions and decay coefficient) for a two-dimensional problem of water quality at Igapó I Lake, located in Londrina, Paraná, Brazil, using fecal coliforms as an indicator of water quality. The simulation of fecal coliforms concentrations all over the water body is conducted by means of a structured discretization of the geometry of Igapó I Lake, together with the finite difference and finite element methods. By using the velocity field, modeled by the Navier-Stokes and Poisson equations, the flow of fecal coliforms is described by means of a transport model, which considers advective and diffusive processes, as well as a process of fecal coliforms decay. In the checkpoint, the longitudinal and transversal diffusion coefficients and the coliforms decay coefficient that best fitted the value of the fecal coliforms concentration were D_x = D_y = 0.001 m²/h and k = 0.5 d⁻¹ = 0.02083 h⁻¹. A qualitative and quantitative analysis of the numerical simulations conducted in function of the diffusion coefficients and of the coliforms decay parameter provided a better understanding of the local water quality at Igapó I Lake.     

Estimating the potential impact of vegetation on the water cycle requires accurate soil water parameter estimation

It is well known that vegetation dynamics at the catchment scale depends on the prevailing weather and soil moisture conditions. Soil moisture, however, is not equally distributed in space due to differences in topography, weather patterns, soil properties and the type and amount of vegetation cover. To elucidate the complex interaction between vegetation and soil moisture, the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Smith et al., 2001), which provides estimations of vegetation dynamics, but does not consider lateral water fluxes was coupled with the hydrological TOPMODEL (cf. Beven, 2001) in order to be able to evaluate the importance of these lateral fluxes. The new model LG-TM was calibrated and validated in two climatically different mountain catchments. The estimations of runoff were good, when monthly and weekly time scales were considered, although the low flow periods at winter time were somewhat underestimated. The uncertainty in the climate induced change vegetation carbon storage caused by the uncertainty in soil parameters was up to 3-5 kg C m⁻² (depending on elevation and catchment), compared to the total change in vegetation carbon storage of 5-9 kg C m⁻². Therefore accurate estimates of the parameters influencing the water holding capacity of the soil, for example depth and porosity, are necessary when estimating future changes in vegetation carbon storage. Similarly, changes in plant transpiration due to climatic changes could be almost double as high (88 mm m⁻²) in the not calibrated model compared to the new model version (ca 50 mm m⁻² transpiration change). The uncertainties in these soil properties were found to be more important than the lateral water exchange between grid cells, even in steep topography at least for the temporal and spatial resolution used here.     

An optimized policy for the reduction of CO2 emission in the Brazilian Legal Amazon

The Brazilian government has already acknowledged the importance of investing in the development and application of technologies to reduce or prevent CO₂ emissions resulting from human activities in the Legal Brazilian Amazon (BA). The BA corresponds to a total area of 5 × 10⁶ km² from which 4 × 10⁶ km² was originally covered by the rain forest. One way to interfere with the net balance of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions is to increase the forest area to sequester CO₂ from the atmosphere. The single most important cause of depletion of the rain forest is cattle ranching. In this work, we present an effective policy to reduce the net balance of CO₂ emissions using optimal control theory to obtain a compromising partition of investments in reforestation and promotion of clear technology to achieve a CO₂ emission target for 2020. The simulation indicates that a CO₂ emission target for 2020 of 376 million tonnes requires an estimated forest area by 2020 of 3,708,000 km², demanding a reforestation of 454,037 km². Even though the regional economic growth can foster the necessary political environment for the commitment with optimal emission targets, the reduction of 38.9% of carbon emissions until 2020 proposed by Brazilian government seems too ambitious.     

Nutrient enrichment of seagrass beds in a rhode island coastal lagoon

Seagrass and algal beds showed a variety of reponses when the water column was treated with low level additions of ammonium, nitrate and phosphate. The nutrients were added separately to 3 uniform seagrass beds of a temperature coastal lagoon during 1979 and 1980. (1) Ammonium caused the production of dense mats of free-floating green algae Enteromorpha plumosa and Ulva lactuca. It also stimulated growth in both the leaf and root-rhizome fractions of Zostera marina. This growth response in Z. marina was greater in the area where current reached 12 cm · s^-1 than in the area with little or no current. The concentration of nitrogen in the tissue did not change. In contrast, where current was lacking, Z. marina growth increase with ammonium was small, but the concentration of nitrogen in the tissue doubled over that in control plots. The growth of Ruppia maritima was inversely related to the growth of green algae in the same plots. The red alga Gracilaria tikvahiae did not grow better in ammonium, but its tissue reddened. (2) Nitrate additions enhanced the growth of the green seaweeds Enteromorpha spp. and U. lactuca, but not Z. marina or R. maritima. G. tikvahiae, when fertilized in isolation from other plants, showed a marginal response to this nutrient, and the tissue always reddened. (3) Phosphate enhanced growth in Z. marina and R. maritima exposed to moderate current. G. tikvahiae growing alone showed a small growth response to phosphate. The phosphate made no difference in the growth of the green seaweeds. (4) None of the nutrient supplements noticeably altered the species composition of either epiphytic or planktonic algae associated with the beds, although we did detect small increases in their numbers. The rapid and dense growth of green algae in nitrogen-enriched water probably limited growth of adjacent seagrasses and red algae. Because these seaweeds did not use the phosphate, it became available to other plant components. The overall floral response to nutrient addition in seagrass communities depends, therefore, upon the particular nutrient supplied, the ability of alternate species in the area to compete for that nutrient and the velocity of current in the specific area.     

Two-dimensional habitat modeling of Chinese sturgeon spawning sites

Since the construction of the Gezhouba Dam in the 1980s, the number of Chinese sturgeon in the Yangtze River has been rapidly declining. The Gezhouba Dam has cutoff the migration path of these sturgeon, resulting in an overall reduction of suitable sturgeon habitat. This paper describes a habitat suitability index model that is used to evaluate the impacts of the Gezhouba Dam and Three Gorges Project on Chinese sturgeon spawning sites. Based on research concerning the reproduction characteristics of Chinese sturgeon, ten major ecological factors that influence reproduction were analyzed, including: water temperature, velocity, water depth, substrate, suspended sediment concentration, and the amount of egg predatory fish. The suitability index (SI) curves based on these ten ecological factors were obtained, and a habitat suitability function was developed. A two-dimensional mathematical model was also created to simulate and predict physical habitat situation (such as hydraulic, sediment, and substrate) of the Chinese sturgeon. By coupling the habitat suitability function and a two-dimensional mathematical model, a habitat suitability index model for Chinese sturgeon was established. The habitat suitability index model was validated by comparing measured data with predictions from the model. These comparisons showed that the computed results agreed well with the measured results, and the high calculated habitat suitability index (HSI) corresponded to high measured quantity of eggs per unit (1000 m³) discharge (CPUE_d). The calculated habitat suitability index for Chinese sturgeon also showed that the habitat suitability index was better in 1999, before the impoundment of the Three Gorges Project, compared with the habitat suitability in 2003. Simulation results of different discharges from Gezhouba Dam predicted that flow discharges between 10,000 and 30,000 m³/s were most suitable for sturgeon spawning.     

水动力条件对藻类影响的研究进展

水动力过程是影响水体富营养化状态和水华爆发的重要因素,水动力因素对藻类影响的研究对于富营养化水体藻类控制具有重要意义。归纳分析近年来关于流速、流态对藻类生长和种类变化的研究报道;就水动力条件对藻类的影响及其作用机理等详细地进行了文献综述。水动力条件对藻类生长的影响分为流速和流态两个方面,不论是单一藻种还是混合藻类,低流速、小扰动有利于藻类的生长和聚集,流速增大则导致Chla浓度先递增后递减,不同藻类的临界流速并不相同;藻类生长随着湍流程度的增加而逐渐受到抑制,抑制作用与水流流态（层流、过渡流、湍流）无明显相关关系,水体流态的变化造成水流剪应力的变化,藻类种类的差异导致其对水流剪应力的响应变化。水动力条件变化引起的藻类种群结构变化,主要表现为水体混合加剧导致优势种群的转换。水动力条件对藻类影响的作用原理主要是引起了光强的改变、细胞长度的变化、营养盐运送及捕食行为变化等。综观当前的研究成果,水动力能否真正阻止藻类细胞的生长或聚集,影响藻类生长或种类变化的扰动的最低水平以及水动力对藻类影响的作用机理是这一领域未来研究的重点所在。     

Behavior and growth ofMercenaria mercenaria during simulated storm events

Experiments were conducted in April–August 1989 on juvenileMercenaria mercenaria (L.) in an oscillatory water tunnel to simulate resuspension of bottom sediments by waves and to determine the effects of shortterm storm events on particle ingestion, pseudofeces production, and shell growth. Juveniles (mean length = 19.2 mm) were subjected to identical concentrations of algae in both low-flow, gentle waves (maximum velocity = 7 cm s^–1) and high-velocity storm waves (maximum velocity = 22 cm s^–1). Suspended sediment levels reached 193 mg 1^–1 at 1 cm above the bed during storms. Shell growth decreased by a maximum of 38% during the storm when levels of phytoplankton were high (average cell concentration = 43 × 10⁶ cells 1^–1), and by 18% when phytoplankton levels were low (av cell conc = 6 × 10⁶ cells 1^–1). Orientation of clam siphons was not related to flow direction. Significantly more pseudofeces were produced when the clams were subjected to increased sediment resuspension under waves, and in troughs of sand ripples. The size of sediment grains ingested did not vary significantly among the flow treatments. The decrease in shell growth during storms may be due to a reduction in filtration rate coupled with a decrease in net energy gained from filtration due to costs of pseudofeces production. The magnitude of the decrease seems to be related to concentration of algae, water temperature, age of clams and sediment transport mode (bed load or suspended load). Thus, the interpretation of growth increments must be made in the context of these environmental variables.     

An integrated river basin-coast-sea modelling scenario for nitrogen management in coastal waters

Linked river basin and coastal water models were applied to analyse the effects of an optimal nitrogen management scenario in the Oder/Odra river basin on water quality in the Oder (Szczecin) Lagoon and the Pomeranian Bay (Baltic Sea). This scenario would reduce nitrogen loads into the coastal waters by about 35%, a level which is similar to the load of the late 1960’s. During summer the primary production and algae biomass in the Oder estuary is limited by nitrogen, which makes a nitrogen management reasonable. The comparison of the late 1960’s and the mid 1990’s shows that an optimal nitrogen management has positive effects on coastal water quality and algae biomass. However, this realistic nitrogen reduction scenario would not ensure a good coastal water quality according to the European Water Framework Directive. A good water quality in the river will not be sufficient to ensure a good water quality in the lagoon. Nitrogen load reductions bear the risk of increased potentially toxic, blue-green algae blooms, especially in the Baltic coastal sea. However, to reach water quality improvements in lagoons and inner coastal waters, nitrogen cuts are necessary. A mere focus on phosphorus is not sufficient.     

Modelling the effects of green macroalgae blooms on the population dynamics of Cyathura carinata (Crustacea: Isopoda) in an eutrophied estuary

A population dynamics model was developed to simulate the effects of benthic macroalgae blooms (mostly Enteromorpha spp.) on the productivity of Cyathura carinata (Crustacea: Isopoda), a possible keystone species in the benthic communities of the Mondego estuary. The model describes C. carinata population dynamics, as well as the relationships between Enteromorpha biomass, Enteromorpha decaying rates, organic matter content in the sediments and detritus consumption by C. carinata, a detritic feeder. Model results support the idea that seasonal blooms of Enteromorpha determine a significant increase of organic matter content in the sediments, due to macroalgae decay, which initially contributes to enhance C. carinata consumption and growth rates, determining a significant increase in the biomass. Nevertheless, later, following the algae bloom, C. carinata biomass decreases, and reaches its lowest value, close to 0, when the algae crash. This effect is probably related with strong anoxic conditions, especially during night, due to high algal decomposition rates. In accordance with the model, migration of new individuals from adjacent areas must occur in order to recolonise the area affected by the algae bloom. Therefore, it seems reasonable to conclude that macroalgae blooms that are limited in space may favour C. carinata populations, but extensive blooms affecting the whole area of distribution of this species will determine its disappearance.     

Interpreting spatial heterogeneity of crop yield with a process model and remote sensing

A process-based crop growth model (Vegetation Interface Processes (VIP) model) is used to estimate crop yield with remote sensing over the North China Plain. Spatial pattern of the key parameter—maximum catalytic capacity of Rubisco (V_cmax) for assimilation is retrieved from Normalized Difference of Vegetation Index (NDVI) from Terra-MODIS and statistical yield records. The regional simulation shows that the agreements between the simulated winter wheat yields and census data at county-level are quite well with R² being 0.41-0.50 during 2001-2005. Spatial variability of photosynthetic capacity and yield in irrigated regions depend greatly on nitrogen input. Due to the heavy soil salinity, the photosynthetic capacity and yield in coastal region is less than 50 μmol C m⁻² s⁻¹ and 3000 kg ha⁻¹, respectively, which are much lower than that in non-salinized region, 84.5 μmol C m⁻² s⁻¹ and 5700 kg ha⁻¹. The predicted yield for irrigated wheat ranges from 4000 to 7800 kg ha⁻¹, which is significantly larger than that of rainfed, 1500-3000 kg ha⁻¹. According to the path coefficient analysis, nitrogen significantly affects yield, by which water exerts noticeably indirect influences on yield. The effect of water on yield is regulated, to a certain extent, by crop photosynthetic capacity and nitrogen application. It is believed that photosynthetic parameters retrieved from remote sensing are reliable for regional production prediction with a process-based model.     

Calculating ecological carrying capacity of shellfish aquaculture using mass-balance modeling: Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island

Increasing growth in the aquaculture industry demands ecosystem-based techniques for management if that growth is to be ecologically sustainable and promote equity among users of the ecosystems in which it occurs. Models of carrying capacity can be used to responsibly limit the growth of aquaculture in increasingly crowded coastal areas. Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, USA is one such crowded coastal region experiencing a rapid increase in bivalve aquaculture. An ecosystem mass-balance model was used to calculate the ecological carrying capacity of bivalve aquaculture. Cultured oyster biomass is currently at 0.47 t km⁻² and could be increased 625 times without exceeding the ecological carrying capacity of 297 t km⁻². This translates to approximately 38,950 t of harvested cultured oysters annually which is 4 times the total estimated annual harvest of finfish. This potential for growth is due to the high primary productivity and large energy throughput to detritus of this ecosystem. Shellfish aquaculture has potential for continued growth and is unlikely to become food limited due, in part, to the large detritus pool.