Effect of prior disturbances on the extent and severity of wildfire in Colorado subalpine forests

Disturbances are important in creating spatial heterogeneity of vegetation patterns that in turn may affect the spread and severity of subsequent disturbances. Between 1997 and 2002 extensive areas of subalpine forests in northwestern Colorado were affected by a blowdown of trees, bark beetle outbreaks, and salvage logging. Some of these stands were also affected by severe fires in the late 19th century. During a severe drought in 2002, fires affected extensive areas of these subalpine forests. We evaluated and modeled the extent and severity of the 2002 fires in relation to these disturbances that occurred over the five years prior to the fires and in relation to late 19th century stand-replacing fires. Occurrence of disturbances prior to 2002 was reconstructed using a combination of tree-ring methods, aerial photograph interpretation, field surveys, and geographic information systems (GIS). The extent and severity of the 2002 fires were based on the normalized difference burn ratio (NDBR) derived from satellite imagery. GIS and classification trees were used to analyze the effects of prefire conditions on the 2002 fires. Previous disturbance history had a significant influence on the severity of the 2002 fires. Stands that were severely blown down (> 66% trees down) in 1997 burned more severely than other stands, and young (approximately 120 year old) postfire stands burned less severely than older stands. In contrast, prefire disturbances were poor predictors of fire extent, except that young (approximately 120 years old) postfire stands were less extensively burned than older stands. Salvage logging and bark beetle outbreaks that followed the 1997 blowdown (within the blowdown as well as in adjacent forest that was not blown down) did not appear to affect fire extent or severity. Conclusions regarding the influence of the beetle outbreaks on fire extent and severity are limited, however, by spatial and temporal limitations associated with aerial detection surveys of beetle activity. Thus, fire extent in these forests is largely independent of prefire disturbance history and vegetation conditions. In contrast, fire severity, even during extreme fire weather and in conjunction with a multiyear drought, is influenced by prefire stand conditions, including the history of previous disturbances.     

Trends and causes of severity, size, and number of fires in northwestern California, USA

Research in the last several years has indicated that fire size and frequency are on the rise in western U.S. forests. Although fire size and frequency are important, they do not necessarily scale with ecosystem effects of fire, as different ecosystems have different ecological and evolutionary relationships with fire. Our study assessed trends and patterns in fire size and frequency from 1910 to 2008 (all fires > 40 ha), and the percentage of high-severity in fires from 1987 to 2008 (all fires > 400 ha) on the four national forests of northwestern California. During 1910-2008, mean and maximum fire size and total annual area burned increased, but we found no temporal trend in the percentage of high-severity fire during 1987-2008. The time series of severity data was strongly influenced by four years with region-wide lightning events that burned huge areas at primarily low-moderate severity. Regional fire rotation reached a high of 974 years in 1984 and fell to 95 years by 2008. The percentage of high-severity fire in conifer-dominated forests was generally higher in areas dominated by smaller-diameter trees than in areas with larger-diameter trees. For Douglas-fir forests, the percentage of high-severity fire did not differ significantly between areas that re-burned and areas that only burned once (10% vs. 9%) when re-burned within 30 years. Percentage of high-severity fire decreased to 5% when intervals between first and second fires were > 30 years. In contrast, in both mixed-conifer and fir/high-elevation conifer forests, the percentage of high-severity fire was less when re-burned within 30 years compared to first-time burned (12% vs. 16% for mixed conifer; 11% vs. 19% for fir/high-elevation conifer). Additionally, the percentage of high-severity fire did not differ whether the re-burn interval was less than or greater than 30 years. Years with larger fires and greatest area burned were produced by region-wide lightning events, and characterized by less winter and spring precipitation than years dominated by smaller human-ignited fires. Overall percentage of high-severity fire was generally less in years characterized by these region-wide lightning events. Our results suggest that, under certain conditions, wildfires could be more extensively used to achieve ecological and management objectives in northwestern California.     

Forest productivity decline caused by successional paludification of boreal soils.

Long-term forest productivity decline in boreal forests has been extensively studied in the last decades, yet its causes are still unclear. Soil conditions associated with soil organic matter accumulation are thought to be responsible for site productivity decline. The objectives of this study were to determine if paludification of boreal soils resulted in reduced forest productivity, and to identify changes in the physical and chemical properties of soils associated with reduction in productivity. We used a chronosequence of 23 black spruce stands ranging in postfire age from 50 to 2350 years and calculated three different stand productivity indices, including site index. We assessed changes in forest productivity with time using two complementary approaches: (1) by comparing productivity among the chronosequence stands and (2) by comparing the productivity of successive cohorts of trees within the same stands to determine the influence of time independently of other site factors. Charcoal stratigraphy indicates that the forest stands differ in their fire history and originated either from high- or low-severity soil burns. Both chronosequence and cohort approaches demonstrate declines in black spruce productivity of 50-80% with increased paludification, particularly during the first centuries after fire. Paludification alters bryophyte abundance and succession, increases soil moisture, reduces soil temperature and nutrient availability, and alters the vertical distribution of roots. Low-severity soil burns significantly accelerate rates of paludification and productivity decline compared with high-severity fires and ultimately reduce nutrient content in black spruce needles. The two combined approaches indicate that paludification can be driven by forest succession only, independently of site factors such as position on slope. This successional paludification contrasts with edaphic paludification, where topography and drainage primarily control the extent and rate of paludification. At the landscape scale, the fire regime (frequency and severity) controls paludification and forest productivity through its effect on soil organic layers. Implications for global carbon budgets and sustainable forestry are discussed.     

Fire history and tree recruitment in the Colorado Front Range upper montane zone: implications for forest restoration

Forests experiencing moderate- or mixed-severity fire regimes are presumed to be widespread across the western United States, but few studies have characterized these complex disturbance regimes and their effects on contemporary forest structure. Restoration of pre-fire-suppression open-forest structure to reduce the risk of uncharacteristic stand-replacing fires is a guiding principle in forest management policy, but identifying which forests are clear candidates for restoration remains a challenge. We conducted dendroecological reconstructions of fire history and stand structure at 40 sites in the upper montane zone of the Colorado Front Range (2400-2800 m), sampled in proportion to the distribution of forest types in that zone (50% dominated by ponderosa pine, 28% by lodgepole pine, 12% by aspen, 10% by Douglas-fir). We characterized past fire severity based on remnant criteria at each site in order to assess the effect of fire history on tree establishment patterns, and we also evaluated the influence of fire suppression and climate. We found that 62% of the sites experienced predominantly moderate-severity fire, 38% burned at high severity, and no sites burned exclusively at low severity. The proportion of total tree and sapling establishment was significantly different among equal time periods based on a chi-square test, with highest tree and sapling establishment during the pre-fire-suppression period (1835-1919). Superposed epoch analysis revealed that fires burned during years of extreme drought (95% CI). The major pulse of tree establishment in the upper montane zone occurred during a multidecadal period of extreme drought conditions in the Colorado Front Range (1850-1889), during which 53% of the fires from the 1750-1989 period burned. In the upper montane zone of the Colorado Front Range, historical evidence suggests that these forests are resilient to prolonged periods of severe drought and associated severe fires.     

Simulating the influences of various fire regimes on caribou winter habitat.

Caribou are an integral component of high-latitude ecosystems and represent a major subsistence food source for many northern people. The availability and quality of winter habitat is critical to sustain these caribou populations. Caribou commonly use older spruce woodlands with adequate terrestrial lichen, a preferred winter forage, in the understory. Changes in climate and fire regime pose a significant threat to the long-term sustainability of this important winter habitat. Computer simulations performed with a spatially explicit vegetation succession model (ALFRESCO) indicate that changes in the frequency and extent of fire in interior Alaska may substantially impact the abundance and quality of winter habitat for caribou. We modeled four different fire scenarios and tracked the frequency, extent, and spatial distribution of the simulated fires and associated changes to vegetation composition and distribution. Our results suggest that shorter fire frequencies (i.e., less time between recurring fires) on the winter range of the Nelchina caribou herd in eastern interior Alaska will result in large decreases of available winter habitat, relative to that currently available, in both the short and long term. A 30% shortening of the fire frequency resulted in a 3.5-fold increase in the area burned annually and an associated 41% decrease in the amount of spruce-lichen forest found on the landscape. More importantly, simulations with more frequent fires produced a relatively immature forest age structure, compared to that which currently exists, with few stands older than 100 years. This age structure is at the lower limits of stand age classes preferred by caribou from the Nelchina herd. Projected changes in fire regime due to climate warming and/or additional prescribed burning could substantially alter the winter habitat of caribou in interior Alaska and lead to changes in winter range use and/or population dynamics.     

Temporal variability of forest fires in eastern Amazonia

Widespread occurrence of fires in Amazonian forests is known to be associated with extreme droughts, but historical data on the location and extent of forest fires are fundamental to determining the degree to which climate conditions and droughts have affected fire occurrence in the region. We used remote sensing to derive a 23-year time series of annual landscape-level burn scars in a fragmented forest of the eastern Amazon. Our burn scar data set is based on a new routine developed for the Carnegie Landsat Analysis System (CLAS), called CLAS-BURN, to calculate a physically based burn scar index (BSI) with an overall accuracy of 93% (Kappa coefficient 0.84). This index uses sub-pixel cover fractions of photosynthetic vegetation, non-photosynthetic vegetation, and shade/burn scar spectral end members. From 23 consecutive Landsat images processed with the CLAS-BURN algorithm, we quantified fire frequencies, the variation in fire return intervals, and rates of conversion of burned forest to other land uses in a 32 400 km2 area. From 1983 to 2007, 15% of the forest burned; 38% of these burned forests were subsequently deforested, representing 19% of the area cleared during the period of observation. While 72% of the fire-affected forest burned only once during the 23-year study period, 20% burned twice, 6% burned three times, and 2% burned four or more times, with the maximum of seven times. These frequencies suggest that the current fire return interval is 5-11 times more frequent than the estimated natural fire regime. Our results also quantify the substantial influence of climate and extreme droughts caused by a strong El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the extent and likelihood of returning forest fires mainly in fragmented landscapes. These results are an important indication of the role of future warmer climate and deforestation in enhancing emissions from more frequently burned forests in the Amazon.     

Comparing modern and presettlement forest dynamics of a subboreal wilderness: does spruce budworm enhance fire risk?

Insect disturbance is often thought to increase fire risk through enhanced fuel loadings, particularly in coniferous forest ecosystems. Yet insect disturbances also affect successional pathways and landscape structure that interact with fire disturbances (and vice-versa) over longer time scales. We applied a landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate the relative strength of interactions between spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) outbreaks and fire disturbances in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area (BWCA) in northern Minnesota (USA). Disturbance interactions were evaluated for two different scenarios: presettlement forests and fire regimes vs. contemporary forests and fire regimes. Forest composition under the contemporary scenario trended toward mixtures of deciduous species (primarily Betula papyrifera and Populus spp.) and shade-tolerant conifers (Picea mariana, Abies balsamea, Thuja occidentalis), with disturbances dominated by a combination of budworm defoliation and high-severity fires. The presettlement scenario retained comparatively more "big pines" (i.e., Pinus strobus, P. resinosa) and tamarack (L. laricina), and experienced less budworm disturbance and a comparatively less-severe fire regime. Spruce budworm disturbance decreased area burned and fire severity under both scenarios when averaged across the entire 300-year simulations. Contrary to past research, area burned and fire severity during outbreak decades were each similar to that observed in non-outbreak decades. Our analyses suggest budworm disturbances within forests of the BWCA have a comparatively weak effect on long-term forest composition due to a combination of characteristics. These include strict host specificity, fine-scaled patchiness created by defoliation damage, and advance regeneration of its primary host, balsam fir (A. balsamea) that allows its host to persist despite repeated disturbances. Understanding the nature of the three-way interaction between budworm, fire, and composition has important ramifications for both fire mitigation strategies and ecosystem restoration initiatives. We conclude that budworm disturbance can partially mitigate long-term future fire risk by periodically reducing live ladder fuel within the mixed forest types of the BWCA but will do little to reverse the compositional trends caused in part by reduced fire rotations.     

Postfire stand structure in a semiarid savanna: cross-scale challenges estimating biomass.

Algorithms relating remotely sensed woody cover to biomass are often the basis for large-scale inventories of aboveground carbon stocks. However, these algorithms are commonly applied in a generic fashion without consideration of disturbances that might alter vegetation structure. We compared field and remote sensing estimates of woody biomass on savannas with contrasting disturbance (fire) histories and assessed potential errors in estimating woody biomass from cover without considering fire history. Field surveys quantified multilayer cover (MLC) of woody and succulent plants on sites experiencing wildfire in 1989 or 1994 and on nearby unburned (control) sites. Remote sensing estimates of the woody cover fraction (WCF) on burned and control sites were derived from contemporary (2005) dry-season Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery (during a period when herbaceous cover was senescent) using a probabilistic spectral mixture analysis model. Satellite WCF estimates were compared to field MLC assessments and related to aboveground biomass using allometry. Field-based MLC and remotely sensed WCFs both indicated that woody cover was comparable on control areas and areas burned 11-16 years ago. However, biomass was approximately twofold higher on control sites. Canopy cover was a strong predictor of woody biomass on burned and control areas, but fire history significantly altered the linear cover-biomass relationship on control plots to a curvilinear relationship on burned plots. Results suggest predictions of woody biomass from "generic" two-dimensional (2-D) cover algorithms may underestimate biomass in undisturbed stands and overestimate biomass in stands recovering from disturbance. Improving the accuracy of woody-biomass estimates from field and/or remotely sensed cover may therefore require disturbance-specific models or detection of vegetation height and transforming 2-D vegetation cover to 3-D vegetation volume.     

Will climate change overwhelm fire management capacity?

Using anomalies calculated from General Circulation Model (GCM) climate predictions we developed scenarios of future fire weather, fuel moisture and fire occurrence and used these as the inputs to a fire growth and suppression simulation model for the province of Ontario, Canada. The goal of this study was to combine GCM predictions with the fire growth and suppression model to examine potential changes in area burned in Ontario due to climate change, while accounting for the large fire suppression activities of the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (OMNR). Results indicate a doubling of area burned in the Intensive and Measured fire management zones of Ontario by the decade of 2040 and an eightfold increase in area burned by the end of the 21st century in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A2 scenario; smaller increases were found for the A1b and B1 scenarios. These changes are driven by increased fire weather conducive to large fire growth, and increases in the number of fires escaping initial attack: for the Canadian GCM's business-as-usual (A2) scenario, escaped fire frequency increased by 34% by 2040 and 92% by the end of the 21st century. Incorporating more detail on large fire growth than previous studies, our model predicts higher area burned under climate change than do these previous studies, as large numbers of high-intensity fires overwhelm suppression capacity.     

Responses of pond-breeding amphibians to wildfire: short-term patterns in occupancy and colonization.

Wildland fires are expected to become more frequent and severe in many ecosystems, potentially posing a threat to many sensitive species. We evaluated the effects of a large, stand-replacement wildfire on three species of pond-breeding amphibians by estimating changes in occupancy of breeding sites during the three years before and after the fire burned 42 of 83 previously surveyed wetlands. Annual occupancy and colonization for each species was estimated using recently developed models that incorporate detection probabilities to provide unbiased parameter estimates. We did not find negative effects of the fire on the occupancy or colonization rates of the long-toed salamander (Ambystoma macrodactylum). Instead, its occupancy was higher across the study area after the fire, possibly in response to a large snowpack that may have facilitated colonization of unoccupied wetlands. Naive data (uncorrected for detection probability) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) initially led to the conclusion of increased occupancy and colonization in wetlands that burned. After accounting for temporal and spatial variation in detection probabilities, however, it was evident that these parameters were relatively stable in both areas before and after the fire. We found a similar discrepancy between naive and estimated occupancy of A. macrodactylum that resulted from different detection probabilities in burned and control wetlands. The boreal toad (Bufo boreas) was not found breeding in the area prior to the fire but colonized several wetlands the year after they burned. Occupancy by B. boreas then declined during years 2 and 3 following the fire. Our study suggests that the amphibian populations we studied are resistant to wildfire and that B. boreas may experience short-term benefits from wildfire. Our data also illustrate how naive presence-non-detection data can provide misleading results.     

Climate effects on fire regimes and tree recruitment in Black Hills ponderosa pine forests

Climate influences forest structure through effects on both species demography (recruitment and mortality) and disturbance regimes. Here, I compare multi-century chronologies of regional fire years and tree recruitment from ponderosa pine forests in the Black Hills of southwestern South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming to reconstructions of precipitation and global circulation indices. Regional fire years were affected by droughts and variations in both Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Fires were synchronous with La Ni?as, cool phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and warm phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). These quasi-periodic circulation features are associated with drought conditions over much of the western United States. The opposite pattern (El Ni?o, warm PDO, cool AMO) was associated with fewer fires than expected. Regional tree recruitment largely occurred during wet periods in precipitation reconstructions, with the most abundant recruitment coeval with an extended pluvial from the late 1700s to early 1800s. Widespread even-aged cohorts likely were not the result of large crown fires causing overstory mortality, but rather were caused by optimal climate conditions that contributed to synchronous regional recruitment and longer intervals between surface fires. Synchronous recruitment driven by climate is an example of the Moran effect. The presence of abundant fire-scarred trees in multi-aged stands supports a prevailing historical model for ponderosa pine forests in which recurrent surface fires affected heterogenous forest structure, although the Black Hills apparently had a greater range of fire behavior and resulting forest structure over multi-decadal time scales than ponderosa pine forests of the Southwest that burned more often.     

Frequent fire alters nitrogen transformations in ponderosa pine stands of the inland northwest

Recurrent, low-severity fire in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa)/interior Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca) forests is thought to have directly influenced nitrogen (N) cycling and availability. However, no studies to date have investigated the influence of natural fire intervals on soil processes in undisturbed forests, thereby limiting our ability to understand ecological processes and successional dynamics in this important ecosystem of the Rocky Mountain West. Here, we tested the standing hypothesis that recurrent fire in ponderosa pine/Douglas-fir forests of the Inland Northwest decreases total soil N, but increases N turnover and nutrient availability. We compared soils in stands unburned over the past 69-130 years vs. stands exposed to two or more fires over the last 130 years at seven distinct locations in two wilderness areas. Mineral soil samples were collected from each of the seven sites in June and July of 2003 and analyzed for pH, total C and N, potentially mineralizable N (PMN), and extractable NH4+, NO3-, PO4(-3), Ca+2, Mg+2, and K+. Nitrogen transformations were assessed at five sites by installing ionic resin capsules in the mineral soil in August of 2003 and by conducting laboratory assays of nitrification potential and net nitrification in aerobic incubations. Total N and PMN decreased in stands subjected to multiple fires. This loss of total N and labile N was not reflected in concentrations of extractable NH4+ and NO3-. Rather, multiple fires caused an increase in NO3 sorbed on ionic resins, nitrification potential, and net nitrification in spite of the burned stands not having been exposed to fire for at least 12-17 years. Charcoal collected from a recent fire site and added to unburned soils increased nitrification potential, suggesting that the decrease of charcoal in the absence of fire may play an important role in N transformations in fire-dependent ecosystems in the long term. Interestingly, we found no consistent effect of fire frequency on extractable P or alkaline metal concentrations. Our results corroborate the largely untested hypothesis that frequent fire in ponderosa pine forests increases inorganic N availability in the long term and emphasize the need to study natural, unmanaged sites in far greater detail.     

Correlations between forest fires in British Columbia, Canada, and sea surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean

Correlations and cross-correlations between forest fires in the province of British Columbia, Canada, and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean were evaluated. British Columbia has a long Pacific Ocean coastline; given that there may be teleconnections between the province's forest fires and climate variability over the ocean, significant correlations may exist between forest fires and the sea surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean. Fire occurrences and areas burned through lightning-caused and human-caused fires were analyzed against individual 1° × 1° grid cells of anomalies in the sea surface temperature to determine correlations for the period 1950-2006. Significant correlations (p < 0.05) for vast areas of the ocean were found between occurrences of lightning-caused fires and sea surface temperature anomalies for time lags of 1 and 2 years, whereas significant correlations between occurrences of human-caused fires and sea surface temperature anomalies occurred extensively for many time lags. To support the results of this approach, correlations between fire data and the Niño 3.4, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Arctic Oscillation indices were tested for the same period. Significant correlations were found between fire occurrences and these indices at certain time lags. Overall, fire occurrence appeared to be more extensively correlated with sea surface temperature anomalies than was area burned. These results support the hypothesis that teleconnections exist between fire activity in British Columbia and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, and the correlations suggest that linear regression models or other regression techniques may be appropriate for predicting fire severity from the sea surface temperatures of one or more previous years.     

Fire severity and ecosytem responses following crown fires in California shrublands

Chaparral shrublands burn in large high-intensity crown fires. Managers interested in how these wildfires affect ecosystem processes generally rely on surrogate measures of fire intensity known as fire severity metrics. In shrublands burned in the autumn of 2003, a study of 250 sites investigated factors determining fire severity and ecosystem responses. Using structural equation modeling we show that stand age, prefire shrub density, and the shortest interval of the prior fire history had significant direct effects on fire severity, explaining > 50% of the variation in severity. Fire severity per se is of interest to resource managers primarily because it is presumed to be an indicator of important ecosystem processes such as vegetative regeneration, community recovery, and erosion. Fire severity contributed relatively little to explaining patterns of regeneration after fire. Two generalizations can be drawn: fire severity effects are mostly shortlived, i.e., by the second year they are greatly diminished, and fire severity may have opposite effects on different functional types. Species richness exhibited a negative relationship to fire severity in the first year, but fire severity impacts were substantially less in the second postfire year and varied by functional type. Much of this relationship was due to alien plants that are sensitive to high fire severity; at all scales from 1 to 1000 m2, the percentage of alien species in the postfire flora declined with increased fire severity. Other aspects of disturbance history are also important determinants of alien cover and richness as both increased with the number of times the site had burned and decreased with time since last fire. A substantial number of studies have shown that remote-sensing indices are correlated with field measurements of fire severity. Across our sites, absolute differenced normalized burn ratio (dNBR) was strongly correlated with field measures of fire severity and with fire history at a site but relative dNBR was not. Despite being correlated with fire severity, absolute dNBR showed little or no relationship with important ecosystem responses to wildfire such as shrub resprouting or total vegetative regeneration. These findings point to a critical need for further research on interpreting remote sensing indices as applied to postfire management of these shrublands.     

Fire-climate history and landscape patterns of high burn severity areas on the California southern and central coast

There is mounting evidence that fire size and severity have been growing on the central and southern California coastal landscape over the past several decades. Landsat satellite data was analyzed for the 20 largest fires on the Central California coast since 1984 to determine the relationships between climate/weather conditions at the time of ignition and the size of high burn severity (HBS) areas. The study also examined the relationship between area burned and landscape patterns of HBS coverage, including patch size, edge complexity, perimeter-to-area ratio, and aggregation metrics. Results showed that climate conditions at the time of ignitions have been significant controllers of the total area of HBS and the complexity of HBS patches on the fire landscape. As maximum air temperatures for the month of ignition approached 40^o C, the percentage of HBS to total area burned frequently exceeded 20%. The percentage of HBS to total area burned also exceed 20% when the precipitation total recorded during the previous 12 months was less than 25% of the annual average precipitation. Landscape analysis results showed that, as the total area burned in fires on the Central California coast grows, the edge lengths and areas of HBS patches also grows at a rapid rate. At the same time, the perimeter-to-area ratio of HBS patches decreases gradually and the HBS patches become more aggregated as total burned area grows.     

Conditioning uncertainty in ecological models: Assessing the impact of fire management strategies

A simple simulation model has been used to investigate whether large fires in Mediterranean regions are a result of extreme weather conditions or the cumulative effect of a policy of fire suppression over decades. The model reproduced the fire regime characteristics for a wide variety of regions of Mediterranean climate in California, France and Spain. The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology was used to assess the possibility of multiple model parameter sets being consistent with the available calibration data. The resulting set of behavioural models was used to assess uncertainty in the predictions. The results suggested that (1) for a given region, the total area burned is much the same whether suppression or prescribed fire policies are used or not; however fire suppression enhances fire intensity and prescribed burning reduces it; (2) the proportion of large fires can be reduced, but not eliminated, using prescribed fires, especially in areas which have the highest proportion of large fires.     

Response of Savanna Fire Regimes to Changing Fire-Management Policies in a Large African National Park

Abstract:  Approaches to fire management in the savanna ecosystems of the 2-million ha Kruger National Park, South Africa, have changed several times over the past six decades. These approaches have included regular and flexible prescribed burning on fixed areas and a policy that sought to establish a lightning-dominated fire regime. We sought to establish whether changes in management induced the desired variability in fire regimes over a large area. We used a spatial database of information on all fires in the park between 1957 and 2002 to determine elements of the fire regime associated with each management policy. The area that burned in any given year was independent of the management approach and was strongly related to rainfall (and therefore grass fuels) in the preceding 2 years. On the other hand, management did affect the spatial heterogeneity of fires and their seasonal distribution. Heterogeneity was higher at all scales during the era of prescribed burning, compared with the lightning-fire interval. The lightning-fire interval also resulted in a greater proportion (72% vs. 38%) of the area burning in the dry season. Mean fire-return intervals varied between 5.6 and 7.3 years, and variability in fire-return intervals was strongly influenced by the sequencing of annual rainfall rather than by management. The attempt at creating a lightning-dominated fire regime failed because most fires were ignited by humans, and the policy has been replaced by a more pragmatic approach that combines flexible prescribed burning with lightning-ignited fires.     

Synergistic Interactions between Habitat Fragmentation and Fire in Evergreen Tropical Forests

Abstract: The growing prevalence of fragmentation and fire in tropical forests makes it imperative to quantify changes in these disturbances and to understand the ways in which they interact across the landscape. I used a multitemporal series of Landsat images to study the incidence and coincidence of fire and fragmentation in two areas of Pará state in the eastern Brazilian Amazon: Tailândia and Paragominase. In both areas, deforestation and forest fires were quantified for time series of 6–10 years. The Tailândia study area typifies a landscape with the herringbone pattern of government-settled colonists, and the Paragominas area is dominated by large cattle ranches. In both areas, over 90% of the forests affected by fire were associated with forest edges. Although most burned forest occurred within 500 m of forest edges, some fires occurred in deep forest, several kilometers from any edge. The obvious synergism between forest fragmentation and fire poses serious risks to tropical ecosystems and has important implications for land management.     

Assessing area-specific relative risks from large forest fire size in Canada

The evaluation of area-specific risks for large fires is of great policy relevance to fire management and prevention. When analyzing data for the burned areas of large fires in Canada, we found that there are dramatic patterns that cannot be adequately modelled by traditional hierarchical modelling assuming spatial autocorrelation. In this paper, we use the robust locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (LOESS) technique to remove spatial and temporal trends; and we account for periodical cycles by employing the relevant periodic functions as covariates in a hierarchical Gamma mixed effects model. Based on the results of this generalized multilevel analysis of large fire size, we provide an area-specific relative risks ranking system for Canada and confirm that lightning tends to cause more severe damage in terms of fire size than human factor. A diagnostic check on the modelling shows that large fires data are reasonably modelled using this combination of semiparametric and mixed effects modelling approaches.