Multidecadal climate variability and climate interactions affect subalpine fire occurrence, western Colorado (USA)

This study investigates the influence of climatic variability on subalpine forest fire occurrence in western Colorado during the AD 1600-2003 period. Interannual and multidecadal relationships between fire occurrence and the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) were examined, in addition to the effects of phase interactions among these oscillations. Fires occurred during short-term periods of significant drought and extreme cool (negative) phases of ENSO and PDO and during positive departures from mean AMO index. At longer time scales, fires exhibited 20-year periods of synchrony with the cool phase of the PDO, and 80-year periods of synchrony with extreme warm (positive) phases of the AMO. Years of combined positive AMO and negative ENSO and PDO phases represent "triple whammies" that significantly increased the occurrence of drought-induced fires. Fires were synchronous with this phase combination over 0-30 year periods and distinctly asynchronous with the opposite phase combination. Overall, because fires are synchronous at supra-annual to multidecadal time scales with warm AMO events, particularly when combined with cool ENSO and PDO phases, this suggests that we may be entering a qualitatively different fire regime in the next few decades due to the recent shift in 1998 to a likely long-term warm AMO phase. Although uncertainty remains regarding the effects of CO2-induced warming at regional scales, given the multidecadal persistence of the AMO there is mounting evidence that the recent shift to the positive phase of the AMO will promote higher fire frequencies in the region.     

Multi-season climate synchronized historical fires in dry forests (1650-1900), northern Rockies, U.S.A

Our objective was to infer the climate drivers of regionally synchronous fire years in dry forests of the U.S. northern Rockies in Idaho and western Montana. During our analysis period (1650-1900), we reconstructed fires from 9245 fire scars on 576 trees (mostly ponderosa pine, Pinus ponderosa P. & C. Lawson) at 21 sites and compared them to existing tree-ring reconstructions of climate (temperature and the Palmer Drought Severity Index [PDSI]) and large-scale climate patterns that affect modern spring climate in this region (El Ni?o Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO]). We identified 32 regional-fire years as those with five or more sites with fire. Fires were remarkably widespread during such years, including one year (1748) in which fires were recorded at 10 sites across what are today seven national forests plus one site on state land. During regional-fire years, spring-summers were significantly warm and summers were significantly warm-dry whereas the opposite conditions prevailed during the 99 years when no fires were recorded at any of our sites (no-fire years). Climate in prior years was not significantly associated with regional- or no-fire years. Years when fire was recorded at only a few of our sites occurred under a broad range of climate conditions, highlighting the fact that the regional climate drivers of fire are most evident when fires are synchronized across a large area. No-fire years tended to occur during La Ni?a years, which tend to have anomalously deep snowpacks in this region. However, ENSO was not a significant driver of regional-fire years, consistent with the greater influence of La Ni?a than El Ni?o conditions on the spring climate of this region. PDO was not a significant driver of past fire, despite being a strong driver of modern spring climate and modern regional-fire years in the northern Rockies.     

Multi-season climate synchronized forest fires throughout the 20th century, northern Rockies, U.S.A

We inferred climate drivers of 20th-century years with regionally synchronous forest fires in the U.S. northern Rockies. We derived annual fire extent from an existing fire atlas that includes 5038 fire polygons recorded from 12,070,086 ha, or 71% of the forested land in Idaho and Montana west of the Continental Divide. The 11 regional-fire years, those exceeding the 90th percentile in annual fire extent from 1900 to 2003 (>102,314 ha or approximately 1% of the fire atlas recording area), were concentrated early and late in the century (six from 1900 to 1934 and five from 1988 to 2003). During both periods, regional-fire years were ones when warm springs were followed by warm, dry summers and also when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was positive. Spring snowpack was likely reduced during warm springs and when PDO was positive, resulting in longer fire seasons. Regional-fire years did not vary with El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or with climate in antecedent years. The long mid-20th century period lacking regional-fire years (1935-1987) had generally cool springs, generally negative PDO, and a lack of extremely dry summers; also, this was a period of active fire suppression. The climate drivers of regionally synchronous fire that we inferred are congruent with those of previous centuries in this region, suggesting a strong influence of spring and summer climate on fire activity throughout the 20th century despite major land-use change and fire suppression efforts. The relatively cool, moist climate during the mid-century gap in regional-fire years likely contributed to the success of fire suppression during that period. In every regional-fire year, fires burned across a range of vegetation types. Given our results and the projections for warmer springs and continued warm, dry summers, forests of the U.S. northern Rockies are likely to experience synchronous, large fires in the future.     

Fire history and tree recruitment in the Colorado Front Range upper montane zone: implications for forest restoration

Forests experiencing moderate- or mixed-severity fire regimes are presumed to be widespread across the western United States, but few studies have characterized these complex disturbance regimes and their effects on contemporary forest structure. Restoration of pre-fire-suppression open-forest structure to reduce the risk of uncharacteristic stand-replacing fires is a guiding principle in forest management policy, but identifying which forests are clear candidates for restoration remains a challenge. We conducted dendroecological reconstructions of fire history and stand structure at 40 sites in the upper montane zone of the Colorado Front Range (2400-2800 m), sampled in proportion to the distribution of forest types in that zone (50% dominated by ponderosa pine, 28% by lodgepole pine, 12% by aspen, 10% by Douglas-fir). We characterized past fire severity based on remnant criteria at each site in order to assess the effect of fire history on tree establishment patterns, and we also evaluated the influence of fire suppression and climate. We found that 62% of the sites experienced predominantly moderate-severity fire, 38% burned at high severity, and no sites burned exclusively at low severity. The proportion of total tree and sapling establishment was significantly different among equal time periods based on a chi-square test, with highest tree and sapling establishment during the pre-fire-suppression period (1835-1919). Superposed epoch analysis revealed that fires burned during years of extreme drought (95% CI). The major pulse of tree establishment in the upper montane zone occurred during a multidecadal period of extreme drought conditions in the Colorado Front Range (1850-1889), during which 53% of the fires from the 1750-1989 period burned. In the upper montane zone of the Colorado Front Range, historical evidence suggests that these forests are resilient to prolonged periods of severe drought and associated severe fires.     

Demography of northern flying squirrels informs ecosystem management of western interior forests.

We studied northern flying squirrel (Glaucomys sabrinus) demography in the eastern Washington Cascade Range to test hypotheses about regional and local abundance patterns and to inform managers of the possible effects of fire and fuels management on flying squirrels. We quantified habitat characteristics and squirrel density, population trends, and demography in three typical forest cover types over a four-year period. We had 2034 captures of flying squirrels over 41 000 trap nights from 1997 through 2000 and marked 879 squirrels for mark-recapture population analysis. Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forest appeared to be poorer habitat for flying squirrels than young or mature mixed-conifer forest. About 35% fewer individuals were captured in open pine forest than in dry mixed-conifer Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and grand fir (Abies grandis) forests. Home ranges were 85% larger in pine forest (4.6 ha) than in mixed-conifer forests (2.5 ha). Similarly, population density (Huggins estimator) in ponderosa pine forest was half (1.1 squirrels/ha) that of mixed-conifer forest (2.2 squirrels/ha). Tree canopy cover was the single best correlate of squirrel density (r = 0.77), with an apparent threshold of 55% canopy cover separating stands with low- from high-density populations. Pradel estimates of annual recruitment were lower in open pine (0.28) than in young (0.35) and mature (0.37) forest. High recruitment was most strongly associated with high understory plant species richness and truffle biomass. Annual survival rates ranged from 45% to 59% and did not vary among cover types. Survival was most strongly associated with understory species richness and forage lichen biomass. Maximum snow depth had a strong negative effect on survival. Rate of per capita increase showed a density-dependent response. Thinning and prescribed burning in ponderosa pine and dry mixed conifer forests to restore stable fire regimes and forest structure might reduce flying squirrel densities at stand levels by reducing forest canopy, woody debris, and the diversity or biomass of understory plants, truffles, and lichens. Those impacts might be ameliorated by patchy harvesting and the retention of large trees, woody debris, and mistletoe brooms. Negative stand-level impacts would be traded for increased resistance and resilience of dry-forest landscapes to now-common, large-scale stand replacement fires.     

Correlations between forest fires in British Columbia, Canada, and sea surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean

Correlations and cross-correlations between forest fires in the province of British Columbia, Canada, and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean were evaluated. British Columbia has a long Pacific Ocean coastline; given that there may be teleconnections between the province's forest fires and climate variability over the ocean, significant correlations may exist between forest fires and the sea surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean. Fire occurrences and areas burned through lightning-caused and human-caused fires were analyzed against individual 1° × 1° grid cells of anomalies in the sea surface temperature to determine correlations for the period 1950-2006. Significant correlations (p < 0.05) for vast areas of the ocean were found between occurrences of lightning-caused fires and sea surface temperature anomalies for time lags of 1 and 2 years, whereas significant correlations between occurrences of human-caused fires and sea surface temperature anomalies occurred extensively for many time lags. To support the results of this approach, correlations between fire data and the Niño 3.4, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Arctic Oscillation indices were tested for the same period. Significant correlations were found between fire occurrences and these indices at certain time lags. Overall, fire occurrence appeared to be more extensively correlated with sea surface temperature anomalies than was area burned. These results support the hypothesis that teleconnections exist between fire activity in British Columbia and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, and the correlations suggest that linear regression models or other regression techniques may be appropriate for predicting fire severity from the sea surface temperatures of one or more previous years.     

Frequent fire alters nitrogen transformations in ponderosa pine stands of the inland northwest

Recurrent, low-severity fire in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa)/interior Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca) forests is thought to have directly influenced nitrogen (N) cycling and availability. However, no studies to date have investigated the influence of natural fire intervals on soil processes in undisturbed forests, thereby limiting our ability to understand ecological processes and successional dynamics in this important ecosystem of the Rocky Mountain West. Here, we tested the standing hypothesis that recurrent fire in ponderosa pine/Douglas-fir forests of the Inland Northwest decreases total soil N, but increases N turnover and nutrient availability. We compared soils in stands unburned over the past 69-130 years vs. stands exposed to two or more fires over the last 130 years at seven distinct locations in two wilderness areas. Mineral soil samples were collected from each of the seven sites in June and July of 2003 and analyzed for pH, total C and N, potentially mineralizable N (PMN), and extractable NH4+, NO3-, PO4(-3), Ca+2, Mg+2, and K+. Nitrogen transformations were assessed at five sites by installing ionic resin capsules in the mineral soil in August of 2003 and by conducting laboratory assays of nitrification potential and net nitrification in aerobic incubations. Total N and PMN decreased in stands subjected to multiple fires. This loss of total N and labile N was not reflected in concentrations of extractable NH4+ and NO3-. Rather, multiple fires caused an increase in NO3 sorbed on ionic resins, nitrification potential, and net nitrification in spite of the burned stands not having been exposed to fire for at least 12-17 years. Charcoal collected from a recent fire site and added to unburned soils increased nitrification potential, suggesting that the decrease of charcoal in the absence of fire may play an important role in N transformations in fire-dependent ecosystems in the long term. Interestingly, we found no consistent effect of fire frequency on extractable P or alkaline metal concentrations. Our results corroborate the largely untested hypothesis that frequent fire in ponderosa pine forests increases inorganic N availability in the long term and emphasize the need to study natural, unmanaged sites in far greater detail.     

Fire Regime Changes in La Michilía Biosphere Reserve, Durango, Mexico

Abstract: The ability of reserves to maintain natural ecosystem processes such as fire disturbance regimes is central to long-term conservation. Fire-scarred tree samples were used to reconstruct fire regimes at five study sites totaling approximately 230 ha in pine (   Pinus spp.) and oak ( Quercus spp.) forests of La Michilía Biosphere Reserve on the dry east slope of the Sierra Madre Occidental, Durango, Mexico. Study sites covered a 20-km environmental gradient of elevation, topography, and human land uses. Plant communities ranged from oak-pine to mixed conifer forests. Fires were frequent at all sites prior to 1930, when large-scale grazing of domestic livestock was initiated. Widespread fires have been excluded from four of the five sites since 1945, with an essentially uninterrupted regime of frequent fires continuing only in the reserve core. Xeric sites had many, smaller fires, whereas mesic sites had fewer but larger fires. On a reserve-wide scale, a fire burned on at least one site nearly every year, usually in the dry spring or early summer season, but fire years were rarely synchronous among the sites. Fire occurrence was weakly related to the Southern Oscillation climate pattern; major reserve-wide fire years almost never coincided with wet Southern Oscillation extremes but only occasionally matched dry extremes. Maintenance of the long-term frequent-fire regime in the reserve core is one indicator that the biosphere reserve model has been successful in conserving natural processes, but the protected area is small ( 7000 ha). Because of the key role of frequent-fire regimes in regulating ecosystem structure and function, restoration of the ecological role of fire disturbance is a desirable conservation strategy.     

Effects of Livestock Grazing on Stand Dynamics and Soils in Upland Forests of the Interior West

Many ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests of the western, interior United States have undergone substantial structural and compositional changes since settlement of the West by Euro-Americans. Historically, these forests consisted of widely spaced, fire-tolerant trees underlain by dense grass swards. Over the last 100 years they have developed into dense stands consisting of more fire-sensitive and disease-susceptible species. These changes, sometimes referred to as a decline in "forest health," have been attributed primarily to two factors: active suppression of low-intensity fires (which formerly reduced tree recruitment, especially of fire-sensitive, shade-tolerant species), and selective logging of larger, more fire-tolerant trees. A third factor, livestock grazing, is seldom discussed, although it may be as important as the other two factors. Livestock alter forest dynamics by (1) reducing the biomass and density of understory grasses and sedges, which otherwise outcompete conifer seedlings and prevent dense tree recruitment, and (2) reducing the abundance of fine fuels, which formerly carried low-intensity fires through forests. Grazing by domestic livestock has thereby contributed to increasingly dense western forests and to changes in tree species composition. In addition, exclosure studies have shown that livestock alter ecosystem processes by reducing the cover of herbaceous plants and litter, disturbing and compacting soils, reducing water infiltration rates, and increasing soil erosion.     

Forest Stand Dynamics and Livestock Grazing in Historical Context

Abstract:  Livestock grazing has been implicated as a cause of the unhealthy condition of ponderosa pine forest stands in the western United States. An evaluation of livestock grazing impacts on natural resources requires an understanding of the context in which grazing occurred. Context should include timing of grazing, duration of grazing, intensity of grazing, and species of grazing animal. Historical context, when and under what circumstances grazing occurred, is also an important consideration. Many of the dense ponderosa pine forests and less-than-desirable forest health conditions of today originated in the early 1900s. Contributing to that condition was a convergence of fire, climate, and grazing factors that were unique to that time. During that time period, substantially fewer low-intensity ground fires (those that thinned dense stands of younger trees) were the result of reduced fine fuels (grazing), a substantial reduction in fires initiated by Native Americans, and effective fire-suppression programs. Especially favorable climate years for tree reproduction occurred during the early 1900s. Exceptionally heavy, unregulated, unmanaged grazing by very large numbers of horses, cattle, and sheep during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries occurred in most of the U.S. West and beginning earlier in portions of the Southwest. Today, livestock numbers on public lands are substantially lower than they were during this time and grazing is generally managed. Grazing then and grazing now are not the same.     

Temporal variability of forest fires in eastern Amazonia

Widespread occurrence of fires in Amazonian forests is known to be associated with extreme droughts, but historical data on the location and extent of forest fires are fundamental to determining the degree to which climate conditions and droughts have affected fire occurrence in the region. We used remote sensing to derive a 23-year time series of annual landscape-level burn scars in a fragmented forest of the eastern Amazon. Our burn scar data set is based on a new routine developed for the Carnegie Landsat Analysis System (CLAS), called CLAS-BURN, to calculate a physically based burn scar index (BSI) with an overall accuracy of 93% (Kappa coefficient 0.84). This index uses sub-pixel cover fractions of photosynthetic vegetation, non-photosynthetic vegetation, and shade/burn scar spectral end members. From 23 consecutive Landsat images processed with the CLAS-BURN algorithm, we quantified fire frequencies, the variation in fire return intervals, and rates of conversion of burned forest to other land uses in a 32 400 km2 area. From 1983 to 2007, 15% of the forest burned; 38% of these burned forests were subsequently deforested, representing 19% of the area cleared during the period of observation. While 72% of the fire-affected forest burned only once during the 23-year study period, 20% burned twice, 6% burned three times, and 2% burned four or more times, with the maximum of seven times. These frequencies suggest that the current fire return interval is 5-11 times more frequent than the estimated natural fire regime. Our results also quantify the substantial influence of climate and extreme droughts caused by a strong El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the extent and likelihood of returning forest fires mainly in fragmented landscapes. These results are an important indication of the role of future warmer climate and deforestation in enhancing emissions from more frequently burned forests in the Amazon.     

Wildfire, Fuel Reduction, and Herpetofaunas across Diverse Landscape Mosaics in Northwestern Forests

Abstract:  The herpetofauna (amphibians and reptiles) of northwestern forests (U.S.A.) is diverse, and many species are locally abundant. Most forest amphibians west of the Cascade Mountain crest are associated with cool, cascading streams or coarse woody material on the forest floor, which are characteristics of mature forests. Extensive loss and fragmentation of habitat resulted from logging across approximately 50% of old-growth forests in northern California and approximately 80% of stands in Oregon and Washington. There is a complex landscape mosaic and overlap of northern and southern biotic elements in the Klamath-Siskiyou Region along the Oregon and California border, creating a biodiversity hotspot. The region experiences many low-severity fires annually, punctuated by periodic major fires, including the Biscuit fire, the largest in North America in 2002. In the fire's northern portion, severe fire occurred on >50% of stands of young, managed trees but on only about 25–33% of old-growth stands. This suggests that the legacy of timber harvest may produce fire-prone stands. Calls for prescribed fire and thinning to reduce fuel loads will remove large amounts of coarse woody material from forests, which reduces cover for amphibians and alters nutrient inputs to streams. Our preliminary evidence suggests no negative effects of wildfire on terrestrial amphibians, but stream amphibians decrease following wildfire. Most reptiles are adapted to open terrain, so fire usually improves their habitat. Today, the challenge is to maintain biodiversity in western forests in the face of intense political pressures designed to "prevent" catastrophic fires. We need a dedicated research effort to understanding how fire affects biota and to proactively investigate outcomes of fuel-reduction management on wildlife in western forests.     

Climatic Change, Wildfire, and Conservation

Abstract:  Climatic variability is a dominant factor affecting large wildfires in the western United States, an observation supported by palaeoecological data on charcoal in lake sediments and reconstructions from fire-scarred trees. Although current fire management focuses on fuel reductions to bring fuel loadings back to their historical ranges, at the regional scale extreme fire weather is still the dominant influence on area burned and fire severity. Current forecasting tools are limited to short-term predictions of fire weather, but increased understanding of large-scale oceanic and atmospheric patterns in the Pacific Ocean (e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation) may improve our ability to predict climatic variability at seasonal to annual leads. Associations between these quasi-periodic patterns and fire occurrence, though evident in some regions, have been difficult to establish in others. Increased temperature in the future will likely extend fire seasons throughout the western United States, with more fires occurring earlier and later than is currently typical, and will increase the total area burned in some regions. If climatic change increases the amplitude and duration of extreme fire weather, we can expect significant changes in the distribution and abundance of dominant plant species in some ecosystems, which would thus affect habitat of some sensitive plant and animal species. Some species that are sensitive to fire may decline, whereas the distribution and abundance of species favored by fire may be enhanced. The effects of climatic change will partially depend on the extent to which resource management modifies vegetation structure and fuels.     

Community occupancy responses of small mammals to restoration treatments in ponderosa pine forests, northern Arizona, USA

In western North American conifer forests, wildfires are increasing in frequency and severity due to heavy fuel loads that have accumulated after a century of fire suppression. Forest restoration treatments (e.g., thinning and/or burning) are being designed and implemented at large spatial and temporal scales in an effort to reduce fire risk and restore forest structure and function. In ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests, predominantly open forest structure and a frequent, low-severity fire regime constituted the evolutionary environment for wildlife that persisted for thousands of years. Small mammals are important in forest ecosystems as prey and in affecting primary production and decomposition. During 2006-2009, we trapped eight species of small mammals at 294 sites in northern Arizona and used occupancy modeling to determine community responses to thinning and habitat features. The most important covariates in predicting small mammal occupancy were understory vegetation cover, large snags, and treatment. Our analysis identified two generalist species found at relatively high occupancy rates across all sites, four open-forest species that responded positively to treatment, and two dense-forest species that responded negatively to treatment unless specific habitat features were retained. Our results indicate that all eight small mammal species can benefit from restoration treatments, particularly if aspects of their evolutionary environment (e.g., large trees, snags, woody debris) are restored. The occupancy modeling approach we used resulted in precise species-level estimates of occupancy in response to habitat attributes for a greater number of small mammal species than in other comparable studies. We recommend our approach for other studies faced with high variability and broad spatial and temporal scales in assessing impacts of treatments or habitat alteration on wildlife species. Moreover, since forest planning efforts are increasingly focusing on progressively larger treatment implementation, better and more efficiently obtained ecological information is needed to inform these efforts.     

Forest floor depth mediates understory vigor in xeric Pinus palustris ecosystems.

Longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) woodlands and savannas are among the most frequently burned ecosystems in the world with fire return intervals of 1-10 years. This fire regime has maintained high levels of biodiversity in terms of both species richness and endemism. Land use changes have reduced the area of this ecosystem by >95%, and inadequate fire frequencies threaten many of the remnants today. In the absence of frequent fire, rapid colonization of hardwoods and shrubs occurs, and a broad-leaved midstory develops. This midstory encroachment has been the focus of much research and management concern, largely based on the assumption that the midstory reduces understory plant diversity through direction competition via light interception. The general application of this mechanism of degradation is questionable, however, because midstory density, leaf area, and hardwood species composition vary substantially along a soil moisture gradient from mesic to extremely xeric sites. Reanalysis of recently reported data from xeric longleaf pine communities suggests that the development of the forest floor, a less conspicuous change in forest structure, might cause a decline in plant biodiversity when forests remain unburned. We report here a test of the interactions among fire, litter accumulation, forest floor development, and midstory canopy density on understory plant diversity. Structural equation modeling showed that within xeric sites, forest floor development was the primary factor explaining decreased biodiversity. The only effects of midstory development on biodiversity were those mediated through forest floor development. Boundary line analysis of functional guilds of understory plants showed sensitivity to even minor development of the forest floor in the absence of fire. These results challenge the prevailing management paradigm and suggest that within xeric longleaf pine communities, the primary focus of managed fire regime should be directed toward the restoration of forest floor characteristics rather than the introduction of high-intensity fires used to regulate midstory structure.     

Synergistic Interactions between Habitat Fragmentation and Fire in Evergreen Tropical Forests

Abstract: The growing prevalence of fragmentation and fire in tropical forests makes it imperative to quantify changes in these disturbances and to understand the ways in which they interact across the landscape. I used a multitemporal series of Landsat images to study the incidence and coincidence of fire and fragmentation in two areas of Pará state in the eastern Brazilian Amazon: Tailândia and Paragominase. In both areas, deforestation and forest fires were quantified for time series of 6–10 years. The Tailândia study area typifies a landscape with the herringbone pattern of government-settled colonists, and the Paragominas area is dominated by large cattle ranches. In both areas, over 90% of the forests affected by fire were associated with forest edges. Although most burned forest occurred within 500 m of forest edges, some fires occurred in deep forest, several kilometers from any edge. The obvious synergism between forest fragmentation and fire poses serious risks to tropical ecosystems and has important implications for land management.     

Simulating the potential for ecological restoration of dryland forests in Mexico under different disturbance regimes

Examining the potential for ecological restoration is important in areas where anthropogenic disturbance has degraded forest landscapes. However, the conditions under which restoration of degraded tropical dry forests (TDF) might be achieved in practice have not been determined in detail. In this study, we used LANDIS-II, a spatially explicit model of forest dynamics, to assess the potential for passive restoration of TDF through natural regeneration. The model was applied to two Mexican landscapes under six different disturbance regimes, focusing on the impact of fire and cattle grazing on forest cover, structure and composition. Model results identified two main findings. First, tropical dry forests are more resilient to anthropogenic disturbance than expected. Results suggested that under both a scenario of small, infrequent fires and a scenario of large, frequent fires, forest area can increase relatively rapidly. However, forest structure and composition differed markedly between these scenarios. After 400 years, the landscape becomes increasingly occupied by relatively shade-tolerant species under small, infrequent fires, but only species with both relatively high shade tolerance and high fire tolerance can thrive under conditions with large, frequent fires. Second, we demonstrated that different forms of disturbance can interact in unexpected ways. Our projections revealed that when grazing acts in combination with fire, forest cover, structure and composition vary dramatically depending on the frequency and extent of the fires. Results indicated that grazing and fire have a synergistic effect causing a reduction in forest cover greater than the sum of their individual effects. This suggests that passive landscape-scale restoration of TDF is achievable in both Mexican study areas only if grazing is reduced, and fires are carefully managed to reduce their frequency and intensity.     

Trends and causes of severity, size, and number of fires in northwestern California, USA

Research in the last several years has indicated that fire size and frequency are on the rise in western U.S. forests. Although fire size and frequency are important, they do not necessarily scale with ecosystem effects of fire, as different ecosystems have different ecological and evolutionary relationships with fire. Our study assessed trends and patterns in fire size and frequency from 1910 to 2008 (all fires > 40 ha), and the percentage of high-severity in fires from 1987 to 2008 (all fires > 400 ha) on the four national forests of northwestern California. During 1910-2008, mean and maximum fire size and total annual area burned increased, but we found no temporal trend in the percentage of high-severity fire during 1987-2008. The time series of severity data was strongly influenced by four years with region-wide lightning events that burned huge areas at primarily low-moderate severity. Regional fire rotation reached a high of 974 years in 1984 and fell to 95 years by 2008. The percentage of high-severity fire in conifer-dominated forests was generally higher in areas dominated by smaller-diameter trees than in areas with larger-diameter trees. For Douglas-fir forests, the percentage of high-severity fire did not differ significantly between areas that re-burned and areas that only burned once (10% vs. 9%) when re-burned within 30 years. Percentage of high-severity fire decreased to 5% when intervals between first and second fires were > 30 years. In contrast, in both mixed-conifer and fir/high-elevation conifer forests, the percentage of high-severity fire was less when re-burned within 30 years compared to first-time burned (12% vs. 16% for mixed conifer; 11% vs. 19% for fir/high-elevation conifer). Additionally, the percentage of high-severity fire did not differ whether the re-burn interval was less than or greater than 30 years. Years with larger fires and greatest area burned were produced by region-wide lightning events, and characterized by less winter and spring precipitation than years dominated by smaller human-ignited fires. Overall percentage of high-severity fire was generally less in years characterized by these region-wide lightning events. Our results suggest that, under certain conditions, wildfires could be more extensively used to achieve ecological and management objectives in northwestern California.     

Bottom-up and climatic forcing on the worldwide population of leatherback turtles

Nesting populations of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the Atlantic and western Indian Oceans are increasing or stable while those in the Pacific are declining. It has been suggested that leatherbacks in the eastern Pacific may be resource limited due to environmental variability derived from the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but this has yet to be tested. Here we explored bottom-up forcing and the responding reproductive output of nesting leatherbacks worldwide. We achieved this through an extensive review of leatherback nesting and migration data and by analyzing the spatial, temporal, and quantitative nature of resources as indicated by net primary production at post-nesting female migration and foraging areas. Leatherbacks in the eastern Pacific were the smallest in body size and had the lowest reproductive output due to less productive and inconsistent resources within their migration and foraging areas. This derived from natural interannual and multidecadal climate variability together with an influence of anthropogenic climate warming that is possibly affecting these natural cycles. The reproductive output of leatherbacks in the Atlantic and western Indian Oceans was nearly twice that of turtles in the eastern Pacific. The inconsistent nature of the Pacific Ocean may also render western Pacific leatherbacks susceptible to a more variable reproductive output; however, it appears that egg harvesting on nesting beaches is their major threat. We suggest that the eastern Pacific leatherback population is more sensitive to anthropogenic mortality due to recruitment rates that are lower and more variable, thus accounting for much of the population differences compared to Atlantic and western Indian turtles.